$10000 to Invest in Almost Retired LEGO with 5 Year Timeframe, Which Set to Invest?

I often invest $10000 every few years on shares with a 5 year timeframe. This time I am going to invest in Lego toys about to be retired with a not selling period of no less than 5 years.

Which set would you invest in?

Some of best buy so far:

The Ghost bought at Target at $80, now worthy $1200

Superstar destroyer at $400, now north of $1000+

The Ferrari Wheel at $400, now around $750

STAR WARS helmet Stormtrooper at $69 now worth around $250, same goes with Helmet Pilot

Comments

  • +15

    The Ghost bought at Target at $80, now worthy $1200

    Took 8 years for that to happen, and that's a clearance price

    Also now worth $950, less eBay fees

    Seems like a worse idea to predict a future market, as well as storing Lego boxes

    • +16

      Yes 8 years is about right, which is why I said with a no selling period of no more than 5 years, with that ghost set I bought 10 sets at the store and they still had plenty as they are just not selling at the price at that time. So far I sold all mine at around the $750 mark with a nice tiny profit about $6000.

      If you compared the above to my share portfolio, Lego actually did a lot better believe it or not

      • +2

        Well done OP. This is actually pretty sick. How did you know those sets would be limited runs and ultimately become “rare”?

        • +1

          I normally look at the similarity between the sets before retirement and after retirement. Bit of a guess work but so far I have not lost $1 on any retired sets

      • Love it!

    • +24

      How is it 'worth' that if the reference is an unsold eBay listing? Wouldn't that definite what it's currently not worth?

    • +4

      Ghost looks stupid. People really pay $950?

      There is one on Amazon for like $2,279

      Probably not a good idea to humblebrag, now you have opened yourself for the potential increased competition

      • For die hard star wars fans, it is. I wouldn't pay these prices even If I am a collector, it's just not a nice set to look at.

  • +4

    Wouldn’t it just be better if you invested that money in yourself? Try and up-skill so that you can increase your own income?

    I personally believe this is a much better option than trying to hopefully make a couple of hundred dollars every free years or so.

    • +5

      Not just a few sets, when I buy I buy them 5 - 10 sets minimum per sets. Not only it's fun, it's a great way to invest. In fact Lego index beats the DJ in a 20 year average believe it or not

      • +15

        Simply comparing rates of appreciation of lego sets and stock market is a foolish way of looking at it.
        Stocks can be bought/sold on online platforms with the click of a button.
        Lego investing would take considerable time and effort - storage, placing ads, maintaining online store, communicating and meeting with buyers, taking packages to post office. Basically like working a part time job.
        No thanks :)

        • +3

          There is a hassle to maintain the pristine condition of the box and to make sure mold free environment for the box.

          • @foxmulder: This is an interesting one, people are not overly too worried about the box, unlike pop or transformers

            • +3

              @Aerith-Waifu: I buy few Lego before and if it's a third party seller - seems the need to mention that there maybe something wrong with the box is important.

              You mention it's not important - perhaps it's different between the normal buyer with the collector? Collector has more tolerant with the box condition?

              • @foxmulder: To me I don't think the condition of the box is important, I have sold plenty Lego sets with a little dent there and here for the market value at the time. However just make sure there is no hole on the box.

        • Not to forget - you'd also want to hold insurance for those kits.

          • @iDroid: Indeed, there are plenty of people not having insurance on their collectables which I think is silly

        • And this is why the poor stay poor…wants money but doesn't want to work for it…LoL.

    • +34

      No problems, not looking for your approval.

      • +1

        Dont listen to the haters. My mate does something similar with Lego sets, particularly the lunar year specials, and he makes a decent return. Ive got a few limited release Gundam kits that are worth quite a bit now too, i reckon anything pitched at collectors will always do well.

        • I only have a few lunar sets, in a investment point view these are not behind in value growth. The star wars are the ones to go for

      • +1

        Can I just say that this is such an elegant response to the typical toxic sht posts we see on this site +1

    • +1

      This is a weird thing not to believe. I have seen plenty of Lego sets (and other toys) over the years appreciate to tidy profit margins for collectors - it's not even remotely far-fetched.

      I am under no delusion that it has any real value. It’s just the next Beanie Baby type fad.

      I mean, Lego is a discretionary purchase - but that doesn't mean it has no value (clearly the market would suggest it does). I think Lego has proven itself to be slightly more resilient than Beanie Babies…

      • +1

        It is harder for those who never understand the things they don't know. I will leave it at that

    • Just another Ponzi scheme

      How exactly is this a Ponzi scheme?

      • +1

        It's a ponzi scheme if the price already went up and I missed out.

    • +1

      And seeing kits listed for stupid prices =/= them being sold at these prices.

      True, but in this instance you're wrong.

      Sold listings: https://www.ebay.com.au/sch/i.html?_nkw=LEGO+Star+Wars+The+G…

  • +3

    This totally makes sense when you read OPs post history. Cheers

    • Yes been invest in Lego for many years now, totally beats my share portfolio. Tax is the easy bit, just pay when sold, it's the insurance and storage which is issue, I now hire a storage unit for them.

      • +1

        Why are you paying tax on everyday items you already own?

        Or do you mean selling fees?

        Storage units are not cheap. I assume you are storing other household items with your Lego.

        • +9

          Because I sell more than $10000 worth of toys per year, hence the hobby rule is out.

          • +26

            @Aerith-Waifu: I can appreciate someone actually knowing and following tax rules.

            • +3

              @sssx: Yes anything over $10000 in turnover needs to pay tax on hobby related activity, we also get our gst credit back so it's not bad after all

          • @Aerith-Waifu: More than $10k pa!! Nice side hustle. I thought you didn't pay tax on a hobby but TIL.

            • +1

              @Muzeeb: Yes it's a really fun one, apart from Lego I also buys transformers toys and other action figures. Tax is part of life which no one can hide from.

          • -5

            @Aerith-Waifu: Lol, you don't pay tax on selling random stuff from your house.

            • @brendanm: But it's in a storage unit 😉

              • @Muzeeb: Investing in Storage Units is possible. Look at Abacus Group.

            • +2

              @brendanm: Depends on amount, small no, over $10000 yes.

              • @Aerith-Waifu: So if I sell an expensive bike, a motorbike, camera and lenses etc, I would pay tax on it, simply because it's over $10k?

                • +5

                  @brendanm: One off, no, but if it becomes a week by week pattern then yes. Don't quote me

                • +2

                  @brendanm: If you are doing it regularly and making a profit of it then yeah you would. remember no tax on selling stuff at less than what you paid for it which is the majority of second hand selling.

                  • -6

                    @gromit: It's always a loss, who keeps records of what they pay for things.

                    • +1

                      @brendanm: True, however if you sell a lot regularly the ATO will eventually ask for those records. They do monitor things like ebay as ebay provides details to the ATO for any user that is selling more than $12k of goods (at least that is the limit it used to be, might have gone up or down since I last saw the details which was about 5 years ago).

                      • -3

                        @gromit: I've sold a heap more than that on eBay and never had an issue. If you are buying things from private sellers how would you have a record of price paid?

                        • @brendanm: well obviously on ebay there are records, however yes for private sales there are none and it is all self reporting (or someone else reporting you). No idea what threshold is for when the ATO decide you need checking, but I suspect it is a lot higher than the ebay reporting threshold.

                    • +1

                      @brendanm: You are walking on fire if you do that all the time and not having a good record of what you bought and sold, even if your total yearly sale is under $10k, if you do that every week and it becomes a pattern of some sort, then yes you should pay tax on your profit. I am not a tax accountant.

                      Maybe a tax accountant on OzBargain can share some light in this.

                      • @Aerith-Waifu: Why would someone keep records of prices they pay for toys?

                        • +2

                          @brendanm: If you are selling 10's of thousands of dollars worth then it is extremely fishy to claim "sorry ATO I didn't keep any records, honest I sold them for less than I paid". Remember the ATO doesn't operate on an innocent until proven guilty structure, they will simply issue you with what they think you owe and it will be up to you to prove otherwise.

                          • @gromit: If you are selling at market value, you likely purchased at market value. They can't just make up some random amount for you to pay.

                            • @brendanm: You forgot it's the ATO, they make up the rules when it comes to chasing after your tax dollar.

                              Only way you can challenge that is going by a Private Ruling.

                              Now let me ask you this, you get audited, you don't have records of what you bought and sold right? Then how do you explain to the ATO that your hobby is showing a turnover of $30000+ or more per year on ebay or Amazon?

                              Even credit card statement they can look for unusual activity, now again, how are you going to explain to them that year after year you are spending $20000 more per year than your peers?

                              You are lucky you been flying under the radar, but if I were you I will at very least keep an record of what you bought and sold so when they do, you have something to work on. And if you do a lot more turnover which you said you do, then they might even chase after your GST if your turnover is more than $75k per year

                              I am no accountant so this is not financial advice.

                              • -3

                                @Aerith-Waifu: Good luck to them. When they start spending the money wisely, I'll be happy to pay it.

                            • +1

                              @brendanm: Actually they can. They will make an assessment based on market value or retail value. As a seller the onus is on you to keep records if you want to show they are wrong in an assessment.

                              • @gromit: This!

                              • @gromit: Yes, so as you have sold at retail value, and they will assess that you bought it at market value, there is no profit made.

                                As a seller the onus is on you to keep records if you want to show they are wrong in an assessment.

                                You don't keep records on random toys that you may or may not sell down the track.

                                There is a lot more to it than you are suggesting. You don't just start paying CGT because you cross some arbitrary amount.

                                • @brendanm: that will be for them to decide. As no record they will at a minimum determine you sold it at the GREATER of market or retail value and have bought it at the cheapest price, if you are lucky that will be the older retail value, if unlucky it will be at Market value when it was well below retail value. If you are selling 10's of thousands of dollars in toys each year they may potentially say you AREN'T selling random toys, they will say you are conducting a business as such you will be legally required to keep records. Really if you are selling so much stuff annually that you are going beyond that limit it will be totally on you to prove you aren't conducting a business if they choose to audit you.

                                  • -1

                                    @gromit: As I said, there is way more to it than some arbitrary dollar amount.

                                  • @gromit: Honestly I don't think he gets it, some people will continue doing so until they get caught. Next time you might see he posts something like this: 'Got audited, what to do?'

          • +2

            @Aerith-Waifu: Look like you already a pro in your field, why asking us? 99% us here only by $100 Lego set, when they on 10% off at Amazon lol

            • +1

              @boomramada: I was thinking if there is any others who are invest so can share the idea

      • hire a storage unit for them.

        Save on storage ..LEGOx

      • This thing you do with Lego is a business. Thus surely it beats share investing if you know what you are doing. I see storage alternative with eSpacer that you rent someone else empty room or garage or granny flat and they even provide insurance against lost for up to $5k.

        • +5

          I use a storage unit which is 100% deductible when used solely for storage of products only. It won't be tax deductable if rent a room

          • @Aerith-Waifu: eSpacer is a site dedicated to those who share room/space they don't need for storage purpose, not for living, thus I'm sure it will show esparcer in your bank statement and you can claim it against deduction. I saw someone rent out a granny flat for about $200/month. I guess those who rents out here, don't mind if you come and go, but will mind if you start living there.

            • @foxmulder: @foxmulder: good pick up on the storage marketplace. Only thing is that I think it's called Spacer. Unless eSpacer is a competitor but nothing came up when I googled.

    • -2

      Surprised it wasn’t something like “OMG, people are buying and selling Lego kits… You won’t believe the profits they make. Click here to find out how…”

  • +11

    This time I am going to invest in Lego toys

    I don't think you're using the word 'invest' correctly.
    I think you mean speculate.

    • +1

      I think they are using the word "worth" incorrectly as well.

    • +2

      The difference between investing and speculation is your view of the risk of the item being purchased. Anything from shares to property to gold can be called speculation. Or can be called investment

      I assume you have studied the Lego market so you know the risk level?

      • +2

        Have not lost $1 on any retired set.

        On share market I have lost over $120k due to company going busts. So yes Lego is much safer

    • +1

      It’s hindsight bias.

    • I think you mean speculate.

      Sounds like anything related to investing…

    • To be fair, the stock market is mostly a speculative investment now.

      Fundamentals seem to have gone to the wayside in favour of … something else..

      • +2

        Tell me about it, apart from FMG shares I accumulated over the years everything is in red, like deep red…….

        A2M, WBC, HLF, W2V, DXN, ZIP, NAB

        Combined total paper lost of $120k at the moment.

        Now just imagine I bought the $120k Lego. Would be tripled by now I think.

        No more investment in the stock market (at least for this year)

  • What shares should I buy for a good investment in 5 years?

    Which crypto will give me the best return?

    What car or property should I invest in?

    • Have a look at my other posts

      • +1

        …woosh

      • That’s a lot of posts.

    • I think it's time to stay away from shares for a while, too too hard to pick winners, I do like FMG however due to their FFI. Not financial advise……

  • +3

    Which set would you invest in?

    If you have to ask then it's not a good idea

    • I am getting to that point of not getting the success I used to be ever since the start of covid

  • Pretty hard to get a perspective here. Most people on a bargain website would find the idea of paying inflated prices for lego a bit crazy. We just want bargain lego, perhaps there are better forums or reddit with a better indicator of what to buy. In saying that, star wars seems timeless, especially the old series.

    • +1

      Star wars is like the bread and butter for sure. However they are releasing too much of the same thing now.

  • Is it worth it if you have to pay for a storage unit for 5 years?
    I used to pick up the lego architecture sets when myer was having a sale, then sell them a few years later.
    Now I don’t bother, because I can just buy stuff at the op shop for next to nothing and list it straight away.
    I can tell you which lego sets to stay away from though: run of the mill things like lego city and lego friends. Disney does okay, but not worth it if you’re paying for storage.
    The really big harder to get sets would be the go, like corner stores and things like that.

    • Yes indeed, we also have a family business which uses for storage of products, Lego is there to fill up the unused space.

      • +1

        Well that's okay then.
        I thought you meant you hired one just to store lego. Whoops.

  • +6

    I'd recommend the set that goes up most in value.

  • Maybe ask over at r/starwarslego or Bricklink.

  • maybe
    lego 71043
    lego 10303
    they seem ok picks

    • I avoided both due to the size and storage

  • Optimus Prime

    $199 @ amazon at the moment

    • +1

      Yes but I think this one is over produced, I think the market is certainly there but if you look at the retirement dates it's too long away, need to buy Lego to be within 6 month retirement in order to benefit

      • +3

        How do u find which set is going to get retired?

        • +1

          Normally you look at the similar sets on the timeline. Bit of a guessing game there

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