Interested to get a crystal ball view of OzB community on their prediction for 2026 and beyond for Australian capital cities. There are many 'Economists' predicting a 5-10% increase in 2026.
Personally, I'm in a market to upgrade my PPOR in Brisbane but it has been challenging. Even though I've saved up 15-20% deposit, It's got to a point where I must sell my current PPOR, to be able to service the new (big) loan.
When do you think some price correction would happen.
Impossible to predict. Could easily curb demand through government policy, and that could happen anywhere from 2026 to never.
If demand drops the price will reduce, but it won't be a "price correction". A price correction implies the market is currently over-valued by speculators, which it's NOT. If anything, it's probably still undervalued due to still being taboo to identify the cause of the demand.
Do you mean mass m…
[DEACTIVATED]
Mass murder could curb demand indeed
@merivetio: Or people could volunteer. At least done at one's own hand has nobody committing a crime.
Though imprisonment would also help with housing problem.
Or go back 60 years and put all the old, sick and disabled into group institutions, that'd free up a lot of homes too.
This take is so ignorant. Many things affect house prices. Having babies, deaths, construction, even cigarettes and sunscreen..etc all affect the housing market.
Migration also affects the housing market, and you're welcome to make educated arguments about it. But you can't just say "migration is the issue because there aren't enough houses" without getting into the benefits migration bring. Stopping migration altogether would be catastrophic for Australia. That's why we have it. And letting unlimited migrants in would also be catastrophic. This is why the government calculates and revises the numbers yearly. So, unless you are bringing these exact numbers and with understanding of the pros and cons of changing the governments' calculated numbers, then yeah you're just being a "dey took er jobs!!" Idiot.
Also, have you ever talked to a financial advisor or investment coach? They're all over the place telling you that the best investments are in buying multiple properties. They advise you to buy as many as possible. Maybe look at factors like that that have no upside?
@amrdeus: I'll bite.
Mass migration from predominantly third world low trust societies of mostly unskilled labourers under the guise of "skilled workers" who in fact are not anywhere close to the level of expertise or building standards we require if we wish to maintain or improve our various workforces.
The sad reality that people seem afraid to honestly discuss is that this is a purely stop gap measure for the government to cheaply increase GDP without having to deal with the myriad of underlying issues that we have as a country. Unfortunately, when you import new citizens that have different value sets or different standards or concepts of how a society should run, then you fundamentally change the fabric of that society. Slowly at first but with increasing speed to a point where the society you create has very little in common to that which it was originally.
I'll be happy to discuss at length with you what you believe are the benefits of migration, especially on the scale that we're currently seeing and particularly from the countries that we are seeing it from, because the government narrative that these are all skilled workers flies in the face of reality. Our building industry has gotten objectively worse, so have many other industries. There are entire suburbs now where new migrants are making little to no effort to integrate into what are traditional Australian values and cultural norms. We're seeing the result across the board with more insurance fraud meaning increase in premiums. Higher instances of crime also relating to higher insurance premiums. Also general lack of business to business relational trust especially when dealing with people from outside of Australia who are setting up businesses here. As a business owner myself, I've directly experienced many of these problems and I have a large enough sample set from my personal dealings to make some fairly accurate generalisations.
Although this is probably more of a conversation to be had over a coffee table or a couple of beers because it's quite difficult to do with a random stranger who you know nothing about over an internet Forum. The problem with talking points is no matter how much you may believe your point of view reality comes knocking eventually.
@slipstreamexpress: How exactly do all these so called 'unskilled workers' get visas? I've seen many a talented people get declined because of our strong restrictions.
Also, I'm not sure you understand our values as much as you think you do. Amongst the strongest is our tolerance and accepting of other cultures.
Mass immigration. There.
I don't think ozbargain is reddit, do'nt think i'll get banned…
Yep I agree. Unless there is a change to negative gearing and massive tax discounts for investors (investors only pay half tax compared to salaried workers), I don't see property prices coming down substantially anytime soon.
Investors are a symptom. As soon as demand is slowed, which is artificially pumped up by our overlords who like cheap labour and a weakened middle class, then housing might become reasonable. But we are stuck with labour, and even with the liberals nothing will change probably. One nation on the other hand….
One nation couldn't care less lol
@buckster: Odd take on one nation, they are campaigning on returning to common sense migration. Unlike the libs and labour that are just taking turns to open the borders and keeping us middle class where we belong, in the dirt.
Not so fast!
Demand is largely driven by affordability
Which is driven by interest rates and government incentives.
Right now interest rates are low, giovernment incentives (including immigration) are high
So prices will keep rising.
However the markets are now predicting between 1 and 2 interest rate increases in mid-late 2026.
Will this cause a correction?
Probably not given that the recent interest rate peak in 2025 didnt. (after 12 interest rate increases)
And these rate increases might not occur at all if inflation susbides
But as property prices continue to increase, affordability decreases.
Combined with higher interest rates in 2026 we should see a moderate slowdown in the property market.
As for providing some guidence for OP, given prices will continue to increase into the first half of 2026, I wouldnt recommended holding back for a mere 2% drop in prices in 6 to 9 months time.
Well the economy and everything else will go south really fast the moment there is more than 1 rate rise in 2026.
Then back to cutting again…
We are too sensitive to interest rates.
I agree with your sentiment - Demand is largely driven by affordability.
Whats your background / line of work?
Sounds pretty normal to need to sell your current PPOR in order to get the new one isn't it? Otherwise you're effectively servicing 2 OO loans. Maybe what you need is a bridging loan?
depending which state your in, it could be more.
Scary but it's likely/possible.
could be in 2029, not in your poll option tho.
OP is in a state of denial
Brisbane is in Qld. We don't deny enough.
You have to weigh up the risk if you want to upgrade
1 - do it now, house prices falls in future. Risk is you paid too much for the upgrade. However in the long term, prices will rebound.
2 - wait until house prices fall so the upgrade will be less than today, however house prices continue to rise. Risk is that you will pay more in future or can never afford to upgrade.
If upgrading, do it now, otherwise you may be able to afford to.
Thanks mate, agree with point 1. Its going towards a point of now or never.
Waited for years after COVID boom to buy hoping prices will come down. They didn't. In fact kept increasing and made it more and more difficult. Finally purchased earlier this year way out of Sydney, and it's already gone up in value by over $100k in CoreLogic estimates with estate agents constantly knocking door offering free valuations and 'ready buyers'.
Barring WW3 or a total ban on all immigration to stem demand, I don't see prices going down at all. Demand far exceeds supply even with all the construction. Every development lot of ~100 houses is already pre-sold out before they've finished earthworks. Let alone laid a brick yet.
YMMV for Brisbane but I imagine the growth will continue till the Olympics at very least.
I waited for years after the GFC hoping prices would come down. They only seemed to go up and if they did go down at all it wasn't by much and didn't last long. I finally bought during the COVID lockdown.
In hindsight, that was best decision you made, and worst when I hesitated. I bet your value has increased considerably since. Good on you.
I arrived at the same conclusion and bought late 2020 after realising that if a global pandemic can't kill house prices then there's no point waiting.
How much extra did you pay in stamp duty for it?
8-9% less as no longer had to pay foreigner surcharge.
My point is that governments, banks and councils are cashing in on increasing property values.
My mate bought a $700k property last month, and he was delighted it is now valued at $70k more. But he just paid $70k in stamp duty for it!
governments, banks and councils
They are all being run as businesses, and when they even say "Australia is open for 'business' ",
you just know that the people meant to look after you, has sold your future out (and your children's children).
@tunzafun001: It's not your mate paying 70k stamp duty.
Anyone buying property have to pay stamp duty.
U buy low or buy high u pay stamp duty.
@ttt888: Yes, but my point is the valuation went up…because he just sunk another $70k into it to acquire it
Value is effectively the same.
He may sell it in a year for a million…but it makes no difference, as you won't be able to buy anything better for a million. His property is now the million dollar base line. So hasn't gained anything.
But the banks get more interest, the council has a higher rate base and the government gets more stamp duty and potential cpt gains tax.
Who really benefits from a property boom…and you can see why there is no urgency to change it.
Government policy for last 20 years being asleep at the wheel when it goes up, adding fuel to fire when it goes down. Latest 5% deposit scheme is just more fuel on the fire.
US entire economy is a bet on AI, Australian economy is a bet on property, gov will do everything to make line doesn't go down.
Yeah, Aus property is too big to fail.
The US existential bet is using as much of their economy and financial system as possible to fund and accelerate AI development so that they win vs China. The winner will rule the solar system and beyond for thousands of years or more.
You do get that "the winner" might be the one that didn't piss all their treasure away on generative ai that doesn't lead to AGI?
This "I'll own the solar system" nonsense is predicated on nothing changing as the owner accrues all the wealth. Mr guillotine makes that extraordinarily unlikely.
You don't necessarily need AGI (if that's even possible) to completely decimate your enemy and control everything completely. Enough satellites paired with artificially specialised intelligent drones and robots could do the job.
The turning point will be around March next year and we will know if the US hidden liquidity crisis turn out to be real. You will know when the Japanese Yen starts strengthening as a first sign.
Given that they've timed the Fed Reserve Chief to retire at the same time to be replaced with a Trump puppet they'll put into motion what they've started on 1 Dec which is a new phase of QE.
Welcome new record inflation, welcome soaring house prices. Courtesy of the US.
So just a continuation of recent decades.
This. Trump won't allow a meltdown on his watch. He'll cut rates, launch an unprecedented wave of QE and collect a noble on his way out. We have at least 3 years before any serious repercussions.
They'll just keep kicking the can down the road like they've done for decades. The only real consequences are to inflation.
Beauty is we have plenty of room to cut rates to 0.5-1%. And western govts this the only thing they do best is cut rates when shit hit the fan.. Lol
When you say "upgrade my PPoR" do you mean get something bigger and better?
If yes, then it's quite normal that you "must sell (your) current PPOR, to be able to service the new (big) loan".
Agree, it's normal to sell however I'm hoping to turn PPOR into an investment. In a long term, I'm planning to leave one property each to my both kids because I don't think they will be ever able to buy something similar in future where we live.
then you need to weight your potential rental income and consider if you have enough to cover:
landtaxes/rates
repairs or complinaces required to make the older ppor rental ready
also in 6 years after rental, if you do decide to sell, you'll end up getting CGT.
then you are not upgrading PPoR, you are buying an investment property, that you'll gift to your kid later, aren't you?
You are part of the problem as to why houses prices are unaffordable for younger generations.
If parents buys homes for their kids it just creates more demand
My parents didn’t buy me a house. I worked for it like many others. Your kids can work for it too
If you have kids and aren't looking at buying property to support their future, you are off your rocker. It's rapidly turning into haves vs have nots on the housing front.
@BartholemewH: Don't forget the have lots and those that have yachts. We're a truly a diversified nation - from instant noodles to inflatable jacuzzis on the back deck.
@BartholemewH: lol
Yes I have kids but how do I know they will be living in the suburb I purchased a house for them? What if they want to live in another state or country?
Meanwhile I gotta pay a heap of land taxes etc to hold a property for my kids. Why don’t I just worry about generating the best financial returns for me and then use that to help my kids?
@Dollar General: so are you against IPs, property holding costs or leaving anything for kids? I'm a bit confused with all that's thrown around
@V2L: I’m all for generating wealth that can be passed down. I just find it bazaar people are buying a house for their kids when they have no idea if their kids even want to live in that house or that street or that suburb or that state or this country
@Dollar General: can always sell and buy where you want to later - I suppose if you are worried about housing price running away then it's hedging bets
@V2L: So pay stamp duty twice and capital gains tax plus all the other charges just as a hedge your kids will live in the street you need them to live in.
Just buy an ETF index, make your own wealth and help your kids out
@Dollar General: that's my preference too but I can understand those who have aversions to stock market or want to be sure housing price does not run away compared to other assets (which won't happen)
@Dollar General: They don't have to live there. The kids can rent it out.
Its sound investment strategy - it gives the kids the option of living there if they wish, or renting it out to live where they want to live.
The investment is compounding.
@ThisIsAUsername: So rent it out and OP pays the income tax on it? What kind of sound investment strategy is that?
If OP transfer it to his kid, capital gains tax is paid by OP as well as stamp duty by the kid
@Dollar General: Something to consider about Capital Gains Tax is that you are only taxed on whatever gains you have made on the initial capital.
IE: if you're paying tax, it means that you've made money. If you are paying CGT, it means that your capital has increased.
I fail to see how being taxed on this additional income is any different to the tax that you would pay on any other income.
In Australia, we generate revenue (counting all revenue from all sources!), deduct expenses and after the tax free threshold, we pay tax on the rest.
For sure, it would be preferable if we had to pay no tax, but that's never going to happen, but for now, at least, we aren't taxed for inheritances or lottery winnings.
I saw a news article the other day where a bloke won $US2 billion dollars on some US lottery and after tax he ended up with about $US470 million. Still quite a substantial amount, but it'd still leave a bit of a salty taste in your mouth, eh?
So rent it out and OP pays the income tax on it?
Umm, you only pay tax if it generates a profit. No different to most other types of revenue in Australia.
The beauty of revenue grnerated via a rental income is that it is pretty much humming along in the background whilst you get on with a more hands on type of income creation whilst setting up a source of passive income for when you are no longer able to participate effectively in the workforce.
I have been actively tracking the market since 2013 - I am not sure I have seen a long term correction in the prices. In general, the prices had been going UP and UP. Demand is through the roof and will continue to be the case for the next few years, raising the price up more and more.
I don't see a so called "correction" happening.
Prices will correct when interest rates or the unemployment rate rises considerably. Seeing as all flavours of government are keen for both to be as low as possible, the chances of a correction are also low.
The big unknown factor is whether immigration will continue at the current high pace. If foreigners realize they'll never own a home here unless they have a bundle of money or a high paying job, they might stop coming.
I wouldn't be surprised to see 0% deposit home loans in the next five years, and the option for intergenerational home loans. Sign up your kids for debt while most of your money goes towards paying interest. Marvelous.
It was predicted to crash when the car industry shutdown and also when people lost their jobs during the GFC. Yet here we are. Foreigners will keep coming as there's far greater opportunity in Australia compared to their home country.
10 years left of that.
Then it will be all for the AI and robots.
At that time Australians will be screaming about why they have to share the magre tax base, via UBI, with 10 million foreigners.
From the ABS new building approvals
The October 2025 seasonally adjusted estimate:
Total dwellings approved fell 6.4% to 15,832.
Private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 13.1% to 6,253 and private sector houses fell 2.1%, to 9,251.
The last time housing prices fell at all (there was a dip between Oct-17 and Jan-19) we had about a 5 year run of 18-20,000 new dwellings approved every month then an economic slowdown. The past 3 years that has been 16k or lower. 4K new dwellings a month for 36 months would have been enough for hundreds of thousands of people to live in.
That's why economists are predicting prices to go up, simply supply and demand. We already have low housing stocks and we're not increasing supply. No party is going to gut immigration to the levels to have an actual impact either - plus that would hurt the economy, drop housing prices, increase labour costs and result in even less new homes being built.
You did the supply side.
Now do the demand immigration side.
Forgot to reply to this, but really we've already done it. Immigration has dropped back to long term levels. All that has happened in terms of housing though is new starts dropped lower. When the cost of supply is artificially high all reducing demand does is reduce supply. The gap between the houses we need and the houses we're building is smaller, but it won't fix the problem.
To fix housing so supply outstrips demand, we'd have to get population growth to basically nothing, because it's simply not possible to build a reasonably priced house thanks to wages, materials, land banking, zoning and all the ridiculous problems in the way.
Yes. We need net zero migration for a number of years to balance out the out of control excessive mass migration.
@tenpercent: We do? You mean when all the migrants left during covid then came back again?
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/national…
Looks like a dip and a correction to me.
The whole housing prices increases is caused by out of control immigration is rubbish, it’s the supply side. Migration levels could have been limited to reduce the damage, but then no one knew that Russia would invade Ukraine and send prices of everything skyrocketing either.
@freefall101: Now do a 5 year moving average. It's more than a correction.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine didn't push up prices. Europe's retalitory self-harm and the US sanctions did that. But moreso the retarded response to Flu Season 2021, in particular lockdowns and money printers.
…Increase labour costs
100% correct. The gov does NOT want wages to rise. Only property.
FTFY ;)
The corporations for whom the politicians ultimately serve do NOT want wages to rise
The best time to buy is when you've got enough money to buy and find something you like. Even if prices drop or a "correction" were to occur it will only bring them in line to what they were 1 - 3 years ago (depending on area).
a correction?
mate you feeling okay.
It will never happen while we are in the top 10 for the best country in the world
That's why i didn't say Crash..Just a correction
do you know how supply and demand works?
Australia.
One of the wealthiest and most developed countries in the world. It has a high-income economy with the world's tenth-highest per capita income.
depends when syknet becomes self aware
then its
GAMEOVER MAN
GAMEOVER
‘The only way to win, is to not play at all’
“Can’t win if you don’t play”
If you are selling your home to buy another one then it's all relative. There is nothing to wait for, if the market drops so does the value of your current PPOR.
If you want to see what a correction looks like then look at Perth from 2015 - 2020. A lot of people ended up underwater on their loans but most just kept paying them. This correction was driven by the collapse of the iron ore price and the completion of an incredible period of mine construction.
What shock could mirror that? If we were in a boom we can expect a bust - but we definitely are not in an economic boom but for some reason are in an immigration boom, with a very low new home rate. There is nothing at all to indicate a correction coming any time soon. If fact it will probably keep trickling up until the next boom.
I think the next few years are going to be interesting on the immigration front. It's quite clear that a lot of Australians want migration significantly reduced, at least temporarily. you see this in the continuing rise of One Nation and Pauline Hanson. While they don't have the clout to win the next election, it is entirely feasible seeing them holding the balance of power. To counter this, the big parties will have to change their immigration policies. Immigration is already moderating but it will need to drop a lot more to satisfy the majority. There's many things the current government could do to reduce migration without too much pain but they refuse to do so. I envisage them being forced to in order to keep the gig. Whatever happens, the times they are a changing.
But how does any of this matter for your situation?
If you sell low, you buy low. If you sell high, you buy high. The difference will be similar regardless (from a small/ big perspective).
Unless you sell high and buy low which means you might need to rent for a bit till the time is right?
People have no clue when a price correction will happen. It may happen next year, it may happen in 100 years. Government could easily introduce policy to curb demand significantly like they did in Victoria, which would stagnate/reduce prices like it did in Victoria. But seems like other state governments/federal don't have the balls to do similar.
No point trying to predict it, just buy when you need to and realize there is risk in any purchase and you may lose money. That's life.
There is a weird blinkers mentality when it comes to property though. The poll results of 100% "Never" is stupid lol. At some point there will be a correction, that's inevitable.
Property isn't just a 100% go up forever infinite money glitch like people think it is.
I've been saying it's overpriced for 15 years… And been proven wrong… Repeatedly.
The demand isn't going away, and supply isn't keeping up… To me, there is also far too much perceived personal wealth in housing, that any correction would be at least somewhat limited by government intervention to appease the masses.
Exactly. I was a fan of the Steve Keene view on economics/housing for years. The theory simply doesn't apply in a meaningful way in Australia.
sell my current PPOR, to be able to service the new (big) loan
That's normal mate. Have you not increased your borrowing power (income) since you took on the first loan?
At any given time, the house you want to buy will have a price. The market is a bloody huge thing. Your choice is yours.
I have been lookng at the electric car market. What's that got to do with housing?
Well, if you are commuting on petrol, moving to electric could save you $100+ per week, and moving a further 10K out might just save you $5000 a year.
At which point who gives a rats toss bag about the market.
Buy your house and make your life
Unless immigration is substantially reduced, supply chains improved, business costs go down and loopholes on FIRB purchases closed, the costs will continue to rise.
It's not a problem until it is. The state of the Australian economy is continually deteriorating and government will keep coming up with more hair brained schemes to keep it going and keep acting suprised when each scheme does the same thing as the last one and pushes prices up. The ability of people to take up and service those loans will get harder and harder and it'll keeping working until… it doesn't. Will that be 1 year, 5 years, 20 years? Who knows.
“Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”
— Warren Buffett
I reckon greed is general sentiment at the moment. You?
correction
Damn hey how salty would you be if you just signed up for a huge mortgage … then a new plague started
Never is the only answer.
Housing as a vehicle for wealth growth/investment/attracting foreign capital to Australia is literally a backbone of our economy. That as a concept is f**ked up beyond all recognition but that doesn't change the fact that IT IS a backbone of our economy now.
There will never be a "correction" to this paradigm because it's political suicide for both of our majorly sh*t major parties and all of their corporate benefactors.
If this ever were to happen, the economic rug pull that it'd induce would cause Australia to almost overnight descend into an unbelievably terrible place to live for working/middle class people that would make the current status quo look like a paradise because there is simply no Plan B anywhere on the horizon to diversify and grow our economy via other sectors in order to replace housing as the fake GDP generator that it is currently.
The upper class (including politicians) would still come out on top naturally, because they've amassed so much wealth from this property Ponzi scheme thus far that they've insulated themselves from almost any kind of financial/economic meltdown barring some doomsday apocalyptic scenario.
Being a renewable energy producing, research, and development super power is the only plausible option to reduce our reliance, as a country, on real estate. Here's to hoping current investments in that pay off in 10 years
Migration still at record highs?
the only chance for a property correction is if One Nation wins majority and the Greens and ALP dont have the ability to block them in either house which is probably about the same odds of winning lotto
Until we adjust the issues we have around demand property prices will continue to rise as we are pretty much 'at capcaity' in regards to bringing on supply
In regards to 'your' post specifically - you are buying/selling in the same market it doesnt matter - obivously you will want the asset you have to appreicate as im assuming the bulk of your networth in tied up in it
it is a safe bet you will see prices rise faster then inflation
There will only be a price correction when demand drops. Don't see that happening any time soon.