Similar to my other post based on financial opportunities this middle east situation brings.
What will happen with govvy super?
Currently in a high risk (ASX/ US shares) option.
Is it worth changing to a more defensive option for a few days. Then try and hit the high yield on the way back up?
Shares are going backwards as is property but not as much as US Treasuries.
In fact nearly every country in the world is dumping them as well as many banks
The answer is GOLD.
Gold is up over 80% in 12 months and heading up even more over the next few years
BTW Precious metal always rally during wars so there is your answer!
Switch to a superfund that allows you to invest in a Physical Gold ETF.
To save you looking switch to:
Colonial First State's FirstChoice Wholesale Personal Super and select "CFS ETF Exposure Series: Physical Gold"
Once again you're late to the party and wrong.
No wonder you had to rebrand from HeWhoKnows.
They missed every other "trump event"… Well it dipped, and then promptly recovered.
GFC days it dropped somewhere around 50%. If you timed that…
I had a crack around covid, but was a bit late on picking the recovery.
Just seems like an opportunity to play with large amounts we normally don't get to play with.
Will pull some graphs / data and have a look.
Moving your entire super from high risk to defensive is insane, especially if you don't know what those things are currently made up of and how the market will react. over the next few days.
Trying to capitalise off over-corrections in the market, sure, that's a sensible move. But wait until the moves actually happen and do things slowly. I bought a lot of shares during the GFC thanks to the entire market dropping. It meant some companies were paying 10%+ dividends with little to no risk to their underlying business. It took a lot of a lot of research and I wasn't not making bets on where the market would be one day to the next. That's the only way to make money from large movements, don't just gamble on "it will go down then go up again".
Just to add, this is not financial advice. But a reminder that gambling is addictive and FOMO isn't a recognised investment strategy.
I know there composition.
I'm looking at moving from 80% Aussie, 10% international shares, 10% property.
To fixed interest.
Fun fact…
Cash (the lowest return and most defensive) currently has the highest 3 month return of all the options.
In which case, I highly recommend you go back in time 3 months and move all your money into cash. Then come back to now and move it into high risk.
Haha.. username checks out..
In hindsight, being in shares when approaching ATH should have been a red flag.
Just to make sure my comments all get negged….
It's amazing that we all have huge amounts in Super and basically no one monitors it.
@tunzafun001: @tunzafun001 "It's amazing that we all have huge amounts in Super and basically no one monitors it."
Uh, I'm sure I'm not the only person who does a monthly review of my Super…?
@tunzafun001: To each their own, I'm amazed that when I asked what it's made up of you gave me the % breakdown at the absolute top level rather than show some knowledge about it.
You super company will give you a detailed breakdown of what exactly they own in each pool, and that should be a minimum of what drives your decisions. Shares were at all time highs because tech stocks were massively inflated, getting out of those and more exposure to the general share market would have made more sense. If you look at where the banks were 3 months ago to now you would have made a killing.
It doesn't sound like you really monitor it either, besides watching it go up and down.
@freefall101: No, I definitely don't follow the stock market daily anymore. Got kids, value them more now. But yes, I'm now looking more into what my Super share exposure actually is. They change frequently (so they should). But noted.
But I do still spring to life when events that shape markets pop up.
Yep, got a bit of bank exposure when the dividend % was better than fixed interest a few months back.
@freefall101: @freefall101
I called up today and asked for information regarding what ASX and Int shares exactly are part of my chosen Super strategy. Was told that information changes rapidly, and therefore not available.
Other interesting insights. I data dumped all data from Jan 1/26, and graphed them.
Almost all categories (including an indexed fund that follows Vanguard), the price today is identical to Jan 1.
The only class that has experienced growth is Cash!
Fascinating…
If you have to ask, then you're just gambling.
If you already knew what to do, then you'd likely have the trading background to make such a risk/reward assessment and would have already made changes before (as it's too late now)
I used to think that. But the world has got pretty loose.
Not too late. Super hasnt moved since Friday, and a change to cash or fixed interest is immediate and costs nothing to do so.
BUT…you can't change again for 48hrs…that is the risk.
In many ways you are already too late, as first thing Monday morning the market will have reacted to the initial shock of the attacks on Iran.
The bet is now what is next? Will the market boom in the coming days due to greater stability in the Middle East as a longer term result of the action or will it bomb if its believed the US will get more entrenched in his action.
Good luck trying to predict what Trump is doing next
That's the beauty of govy super.
I'm currently in 80% share exposure. Can move to fixed interest immediately…wait it out. Flick back to share growth options.
Guess the question is…will shares drop. Last Iran bombing the market was neutral by the end of the day. But Iran hadn't fired anything.
“Can move to fixed interest immediately”
Uh… you sure about that? Investment switches usually take 2-3 days to prevent such speculations.
cbf the world isnt ending
I hadn't even though of my share portfolio or super. I think I'll just leave it be and get on with the things in life that are worth worrying about.
That's the thing I guess. Could bust my nut in a govvy job for 6months…or potentially make the same return in 2 clicks.
If you are asking this question now, you area already too late and should have done this change 1 month ago.
Please also try and educate yourself financially because what you said below doesn't make sense. If yields go up, prices go down and vice versa.
Then try and hit the high yield on the way back up?
Timing the market as you're suggesting is an almost guaranteed way to lose money long-term.
Do not do what you're suggesting, it is a bad idea. Pick a long-term plan and stick to it.
Superannuation is a long-term investment, so there's trying little point in trying to game it for short-term gain.
If you haven't already done so, book a consultation with your financial advisor to decide on a proper strategy, as opposed just reacting to possible market shifts. Super funds offer this as an independent service, and you can gave the cost debited from your fund.
You need to time it right TWICE - on exit and on reentry
Professsionals can't even do it consistently so what hope do you think you have?
The ASX200 doesn't seem to have reacted at all. Down slightly so far, but nothing unusual.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EAXJO/?p=%5EAXJO
S&P500 has barely moved, slightly down but not outside normal day to day variance.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/
That being said you might consider an alternative strategy for your retirement that will also reap non-financial rewards for your children/grandchildren. Assuming you you have a conscience and morality, you might consider looking into divesting from companies that directly supply, fund, or profit from war and conflict.
It's almost like everyone else could see the massive buildup of US troops in the middle east and acted accordingly.
Granted, there are some people who made a killing off a killing but not by moving all their super into cash.
For sure…I hate Super. But understand why it exists.
I have only self contributed a minimum sal sacrificed amount.
Massive advocate for having your own side super (after seeing the Greece situation). Now seeing the entire SA gulf imploding. Economies that always existed can collapse without warning.
So yes, I do have sustainable future side investments (mixed with sure things -banks) that have outperform super 5 fold. Got pantsed in the GFC, but still ahead on average.
But it does take time..and Super is there by default, and now has scope for user tweaks. Ie. Used to be $20 to change strategy. Now free game.
There are opportunities to be less impacted by the impending rise in oil prices.
I had a mate that thought he was smarter than everyone else and moved his super to cash during a dip not long ago. The problem is that he didn't know when to get back in, always worried that another dip was coming. The value of what he exited from kept rising so he missed out on gains. He's very quiet about it all now as he's a bit embarrassed by it all.
This is the obvious issue. I have missed it and hit it. Learnt from it.
Go early on both. It's only like 5% difference (if you picked both on the GFC you would be 50%+ up.
But 5% of several hundred k in 4 days. I can't get that anywhere else.
I'm sure I'll never make any meaningful use of my super (age will raise to 80+), so it makes it a bit more comfortable to have a play with.
It's only like 5% difference (if you picked both on the GFC you would be 50%+ up.
But you are basing that on what you know now, after it has happened. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. But try timing it when you don't know for sure what the market is going to do.
No I mean, just take a small move. For example, if you went cash at the Iran war announcement, and then back to a growth option now, you will be up a measley 0.5%. But that's still $2000 based on $400k. I did try and pick the GFC drop (hit it pretty well), but I was 2 days late on the recovery. In the end, was about the same as doing nothing. So yeah, no chance of picking tops/ bottoms with my skill set (very basic TA).
Odds on, if you try to play the stock market with your super options you're going to get hosed.
You are not a more sophisticated investor than the thousands of people being paid full time to do this for you. High growth options take events such as this into account in their portfolios.