What do you all think? Odds and evens? $50 limits?
No doubt fuel supply is going to be impacted in the short to medium term and it is something we may have to live with for a while, or perhaps Donnie sails the Fifth Fleet through the Strait and it rains lollypops on us all
Almost makes you wish most trucks that do runs around the city were electric.
But imagine them queuing outside Ikea at the local EV charger
I bet all parks will be electric one day. Even Hungry Jacks has multiple electric parks, every city parking building has them, they are everywhere. I bet one day it becomes a standard feature, and some kind of fast charge solution for work vehicles like a battery swap.
@AustriaBargain: Battery swapping for electric vehicles was first used in the 1890s. There was a commercial operation running from 1910 through 1924 in Connecticut.
@tenpercent: Yep. Electric cars have been a concept for over 120 years. Guaranteed it was stifled, nixed and killed off by big oil. Around that time Standard Oil and the Rockefeller family was one of the biggest corporations in history, eventually being broken up into lots of other smaller companies (like Esso) in one of the largest anti trust suits in corporate American history.
They (big oil) pulled the same shit in the 90's to Nissan and Toyota when they were advancing electric tech backed cars like the Nissan Leaf. Overnight they all just vanished. America has a long, dark and ugly history of technology suppression, patent/tech hoarding, aggressive takeovers and other hostile business practices. Maglight is another, stifled torch/light technology for decades.
@Skinnerr: Maglight? Created by the Croation post-WW2 American immigrant who released the first maglite torch in 1979? How was that stifled? And what's so special about the technology?
@tenpercent: Theres a YouTube documentary I watched about them. You're misunderstanding the phrasing. Maglight did the stifling. They extorted companies into silence via litigation. Maglight was a shit company run by crooks. The l
Technology was LED technology, because they used halogen globes in all their torches. LED tech was a direct threat to Maglight and they did everything in their power to kill it like the old school American way rather than to adapt to the technology.
@Skinnerr: The first gen electric cars were killed off by their limitations - short range, charging issues, maintenence (arcing on contacts) and the increasing availability of very cheap petrol. A brilliant start though
Or introduce a fleet with a battery swapping station that takes 1 minute.
unfortunately the market for electric trucks is not as competitive as cars.
For companies and businesses to replace their vehicles the cost would be exponential as good trucks can last 10+ years the cost of ice has been factored in but new electric trucks would be easily 1.5x the price of a diesel, with greatly reduced range meaning more staff costs. Plus zero truck charging infrastructure.
Maybe the oil crisis will make EV trucks look more attractive.
@AustriaBargain: I want kangaroo technology. Trucks that bounce along on big arse springs after a short (read, less) internal combustion.
They would also need specilaised high capacity chargers that would be expensive to buy and operate
There was an Australian group working on battery swaps for trucks. I’ll have to check how they’re going now.
If we taxed our gas and mining exports properly we'd have a sovereign wealth fund big enough to pay for everyone's energy use
but who's gonna pay Albo's post retirement consulting jobs then
Mining exports are generally taxed properly (State royalties). The problem is with LNG, which is primarily controlled by the Commomwealth, not the States and is taxed under the PRRT, which is being widely (and legally) circumvented by the energy companies that are extracting it. I'm not a big fan of increasing taxes but the PRRT really does need reforming
There's arguments before and against the before/after Easter scenarios. Just before => limit petrol wasted on long Easter Weekend trips away. Just after => avoid political backlash of messing up everyone's Easter Weekend plans.
When they start rationing, there's going to be political backlash no matter what. Better to do something to reduce demand so you can have a gradual slide rather than a sudden stop. In that vein, I wouldn't be surprised if they called for WfH by default next week.
Also, the budget is in May. Expect something by then to address prices jumping like crazy.
Also, the budget is in May. Expect something by then to address prices jumping like crazy.
Maybe they'll adopt One Nation's policy to halve the fuel excise.
@tenpercent: What stops petrol stations from re-raising the tax so they just earn more instead of passing on the discount?
@Zondor: Good point. Victoria has had a go with so-called anti-price gouging laws https://timesnewsgroup.com.au/bellarinetimes/news/anti-gougi…
It seems like a fairly weak anti gouging measure though. Especially if the petrol wholesalers / importers decide to do the gouging.
Myth: The only solution to high petrol prices is to cut fuel tax
Fact: Cutting or freezing fuel tax when oil prices go up might postpone higher petrol prices for a few months, but at the expense of having to find billions of dollars through other taxes every year thereafter. The solution lies not in cutting fuel tax, abolishing CPI indexation or promoting boutique alternative fuels, but in fixing up the alternatives to car use and electrifying what remains.
https://ptua.org.au/myths/highfuel/
I found this article quite informative, though I'm sure it will be written off as performative wokey nonsense.
@ThithLord: The answer is most definitely to end this speculative investor useless tax bonus just for hoarding essential assets that produce nothing. CGT discount for owner occupiers and no one else. Fuxk Howard for saddling us with useless blight of a tax that only makes the wealthy wealthier.
@Skinnerr: Also badly need a windfall tax. We are getting gouged from multinational companies from our own resources. We pay Transurban $4 - 7 a pop to use a public infrastructure road we paid for. Extortion.
The question is how to implement it without the CIA starting a political coup to oust the govt. Twice now (Whitlam/Rudd) have tried and been knife in the back. Hawke and Keating kowtowed to stay in power with the populist quid pro quo policies of Medicare and superannuation respectively to keep power and keep America happy.
@ThithLord: Let's run the maths.
Current average petrol prices in Australia are approximately 173-230 cents per litre depending on location and timing within the price cycle, with recent spikes pushing Sydney prices to 229.6 cents per litre. Including the 10% GST on the excise component, the total excise component adds 57.86 cents (52.6 + 5.26) to the final price.
If fuel excise were halved to 26.3 cents per litre, the total excise component would be 28.93 cents (26.3 + 2.63 GST). This would reduce the pump price by 28.93 cents per litre. For a typical household using 35 litres per week, this would save approximately $10.13 weekly. While that doesn't sound like much to a typical ozbargainer, it can mean the difference between skipping a couple of meals every week for Australia's working poor (1 in 6 children in Australia and 1 in 7 people overall live under the poverty line). It could mean being able to run the heater for a couple of extra hours during winter in a shitty fibro clad uninsulated rental. Anyway, prices would need to rise by 28.93 cents per litre (about 18.7% increase from fuel excise reduced prices) to eliminate this benefit.
Over a three-month period, the halved excise scenario would save a typical driver approximately $131.69 compared to maintaining full excise throughout. This represents the value of this potential cost-of-living relief from such a measure, assuming typical driving patterns and consistent fuel consumption of 35 litres per week. For people living further from their place of work (e.g. more typical for poorer people who can only afford to live in the outer suburbs of major cities), more fuel use per week would mean more relief.
but at the expense of having to find billions of dollars through other taxes every year thereafter
They could also cut spending, or do a bit of both.
But how about finding billions of dollars through other taxes for…
alternatives to car use and electrifying what remains
And how does that help the working poor who are struggling now? The same people who can't afford those often heavily subsidised (but generally not means tested) electrical alternatives. The same people who normally can't benefit from all the solar and battery subsidies too.
@ThithLord: It seems a bit incorrect, capping fuel excide does not mean you have to then find billions elsewhere to replace it, this "ecxess excise" was not budgeted for in the firts place
@Dr Phil: That's supply and demand at work, not rations. Rations are tightly controlled and enforced.
Economic hit is definitely going to be a consideration.
I expect WFH and encouragement to reduce travel as a soft rationing step.
Domestic gas is cap at $12 a gigajoule for east coast so it doesn't impact gas price for domestic, export price sell at market price so good for Australian gas companies
Depends upon consumer behaviour.
If we keep seeing muppets filling all sorts of inappropriate and illegal containers, with the I got mine, (profanity) you attitude, some sort of restrictions may become necessary.
Covid carry-on re toilet paper is not inspiring confidence in the common sense of sectors of the community.
If we keep seeing muppets filling all sorts of inappropriate and illegal containers
And why is it, that of all the panic buyers I have witnessed, they are all driving jacked up, fat tyred, paint peeling off, foil in the windows, late 90's 80 series LandCruiser shitboxes with P plates on them? Probably wouldn't need to panic buy if they bought a vehicle that got better than 30 litres/100km fuel economy…
How do you know someone is a panic buyer? Are you guys saying you've actually seen multiple people filling up IBCs or arrays of milk jugs on the back of utes?
I filled up 3x jerry cans a week ago, which I've done regularly for years to avoid going to the servo as often. Would i be classed as a 'panic buyer' in the public's judgement?
an idiot I think, to be picking now to do your annual fuel shopping
Would i be classed as a 'panic buyer' in the public's judgement?
Probably, some guy filling an IBC with diesel was all over the news as a "panic buyer", when he probably does this all the time to run equipment. People don't seem to understand that there is a need for bulk fuel that isn't "panic buying".
and it doesn't take much to empty the shelves. If some people buy one extra item 'just in case' , that's perfectly rational. In a just-in-time logistical model it would be easy to get short term imbalances.
I'm concerned about this kind of thought process. I don't panic buy, I do my grocery shopping monthly at the beginning of the month.
I buy 4 packs of 24 toilet paper per month. I easily fill 2 trolleys with groceries every month at both Woolworths and Coles.
I'm concerned that people are going to assume I'm panic buying and I'm going to get some nasty attitudes for doing it.
@sheebies: Yeah, it's nonsense witch-hunts. I overhead a few people grumbling in coles the other day bout "(profanity) panic buyers buying all the pasta", which is nonsense because that coles had low pasta stock on and off for a few weeks prior to the fuel crisis.
FUD.
The problem is that this is rational behaviour. It's not panic buying as much as it's just sensible decision making. If you think (and lets be real, who doesn't?) that fuel is going to be more expensive in a week or two than today then it makes sense to buy as much as you can. It's not like the toilet paper thing where there was no real underlying supply issue, there could be a fuel shortage, or at least it will cost more.
Panic buying is selfish, not sensible, and brings on the crisis. It screams "i got what i need, screw the rest of you".
Sensible is probably not my best word choice, and I don't disagree that it makes everything worse, and it's definitely selfish, but it is nevertheless rational, if mercenary, too look ahead at the obvious incoming price increases and make choices accordingly in a way that it never was for toilet paper during covid, beyond not wanting to have none. For me and my beloved Jazz it doesn't really make any sense to bother, and regardless, the real pain is going to come from the price increases in nearly every other aspect of our lives.
What is panic buying, in your opinion? If I told you an item would be out of stock tomorrow, would you buy it today?
Covid carry-on re toilet paper
The masses will do whatever they're told to do.
Whether that's from some 6PM mainstream tv news talking head, or whether that's some "influencer" on a 30 second video clip in some app.
I last filled up a week before labor day @1.65, now Im looking at nearly $3L. Grim.
last filled my tank at 1.66 for u95, now it’s 2.49 … bad times to own a old bmw :(
What's your fuel usage?
Filled up @1.51 and now looking at exactly twice now
That was 1.65 for 95RON premium, 91 was 1.50 like yours. 1st two APCO servo's were out of 95, went to the next cheapest servo, $.2.50 for 95, $90 didn't even fill up the tank from 1/5 full. It used to be around $60 for a full tank from empty.
If it's actually an issue we should be diverting fuel from the city to the regions. Farmers and trucks are more important than mummy taking the kids to school in the new defender.
Extremely unlikely in the short term. Prices aren't really that bad and supply seems consistent at the moment despite what media and panic buyers are saying.
If the war drags on then maybe.
Every time the politicians go on TV imploring people to not hoard petrol a whole lot more people say to themselves "if other people think they need to hoard it, maybe I should too before they get it all." So the first thing that should be rationed is politicians telling people to not hoard.
Obligatory (profanity) Trump and (profanity) Netanyahu for inflicting more pain on the world.
it's easy to blame it on others. But why don't you ask youself, why isn't Australia more self sufficient??? Why do we always have to depend on other countries? 🤔
Because we don't want to pay more for petrol all the time just so we could make it through the odd crisis. The government could build refineries, hold more oil and detach ourselves from the global market, but it would either be subsidised with billions of taxpayer dollars or petrol prices would be this high all the time. The reason most of the refineries we had closed is because they weren't economical - they're owned by oil companies, they act to keep costs down.
Self-sufficiency usually means higher costs, particularly when it comes to liquid fuels. We could fully electrify the country (we're the perfect spot for renewables and have plenty of fuels), and are moving down the path of doing that but it'll take a while.
You say it's higher costs… But who is footings the bill now? Australia is shooting itself in the foot and crying like a baby blaming on daddy America.
I mean like Common man. We as a nation shouldn't be weak asf 😮💨
I think if the war goes on 2 more weeks then we might see work from home mandates and rationing.
Hopefully WFH mandates come in soon. Many other countries have already implemented this and it's recommended by various organisations around the world.
I think the government is holding off because they just made a huge deal about how all the government workers have to go back to the offices because the coffee shops are dying in the CBD without them. Issuing a WFH mandate will undo all their hard work as the are 75% there, just fighting off the last few union battles.
You do know not everyone works in an office?
I do yes - thanks for asking.
mate fuel stations can hold 100k Litres, if theres a few in your area, it could be like 500k litres across 5-6 stations, we arent going to run out as fast as the media tells us
This is true. I wish everyone would stop reading news.com.au. It is their main story every day just to scare people and have them come back to be scared again.
As someone who works in the industry the fuel stations that have 100k tanks are never filled to capacity.
who cares about feul time to horde toilet paper! sh1ts gonna hit the fan!
If it's going to hit the fan you probably want an umbrella too.
or use a bidet system you know…
Random thought but why not introduce something like the 50c fares in QLD but nationally to get more people on PTV?
$12 return to go two stops on the train in Melbourne.
Melbourne is broke, Jaci needs to plug the 15b hole
I live 2 tram stops from the CBD. That is also $12 return.
I drove more than halfway across the greater metropolitan area for about that much (at current petrol prices).
Ban people driving Raptors….that will save thousands of litres of fuel …..🤔
And drive down car insurance prices as the number of single vehicle crashes goes to zero
I don't think they will reduce premiums. If there were not for profit insurance providers, maybe.
Ban immigration, less people buying petrol instead
Itll be Odds and Evens (due to legislation). When that occurs will be realisticly determined by fuel availability to the country.
Strategic reserve of 5 days I think was just released to go country but Australia cannot diminish the entire reserve to maintain that.
So the maximum is 37 days/5 - any available fuel that does make it (roughly 6 weeks now 5 days already gone).
The chances of tht happening = 0
Expect restrictions immediately after Easter. Reasoning:
Good post.
I would expect that if the delivery expectations worsened (e.g. Trump banning US energy exports causing cascading export bans across Asia) it would happen immediately, but Easter is a reasonable prospect. But preferably it needs to happen sooner, much sooner, to preserve fuel for agriculture and essential transport, because inflation will be dramatic with shortages of many perishable food items (e.g. fresh vegetables), and that's the end of the current government. In NZ Jacinda didn't lose the election because of COVID, but rather because of inflation from Russia, which conveniently resonated with people's suffering during the pandemic.
It's like the Chinese trying to pretend COVID wasn't a thing during December because Chinese New Year is coming up, but it never works and so they had to shut up shop. Same thing will happen here - you don't wait until after Easter because it's a big travel and tourism event, but governments don't want to ruin the economy by imposing harsh travel restrictions. However anyone who buys fuel for non-essential travel today and tomorrow means less for essential services and production.
I absolutely agree. As soon as this thing kicked off, someone should have dusted off the Gulf War 'how to' guide and just dealt with it.
Unfortunately, this is what happens when there's too much politics playing in economics and business.
As a result, we will have further inflationary pressures across the board with no view to culling migration (one of the largest overall pressures). Given the upcoming Victorian and NSW elections,the Federal government will incorrectly be more focussed on those rather than overall, long term stabilisation.
If they fail at this, aside from the obvious impacts on supply and logistics, will be what WA and QLD choose to do. WA is in a far superior position than the rest of the country and if the Federal government uses GST receipts or resource revenue to prop up Victoria and NSW, it will be an issue. Further, if this Federal behaviour continues and parties such as ONP and the Katters gain more control of QLD, they may adopt WA style policies.
What's the big deal? As much as WA and FNQ talk about secession, I dont think that'll happen. But you could see greater State based Sovereign Funds and logistical supplies (as WA has but expanded at a resource level).
This means that half the country feasibly could control it's own destiny whilst the other half is relegated to importation.
There's nothing in s51 of the Constitution that takes this away from the States and s107 means they can all do it.
🔮
I'll add that it speaks volumes that today, 2 ships turned around and the Minister wasn't answering questions.
While governments for the last 25 years have consistently borrowed to bail out the public, I’m not sure they can do it this time.
Dropping the fuel excise is effectively doing just that - the budget shortfall will be added to the borrowing.
The thing is they actually need to reduce demand and the only way to do that is for the price to naturally increase by a lot. Getting rid of the excise will make the problem worse.
Isn't this funny you talk about demand
I have an idea, imagine deceasing demand for housing….
I cant wait to use the no fuel excuse for work….
me; boss, I cant make it to work
boss; why?
me; dog ate my fuel
Taking the politics out of it all - reminder that, amongst all of this, alternatives exist.
Public transport remains cheap, you can holiday around all of Victoria on the V/Line for $11.40 per day, per adult. If you're heading out to regional centres for the holidays (e.g. Ballarat, Geelong, Bendigo, or all the way out to Ararat, Bairnsdale, Albury…etc., definitely worth trying the train - it's great).
Explore options to take the train or bus to where you need to go locally, try walking to your local shops, try cycling or an electric scooter. If you don't "need" to drive to work, perhaps you ought not to. Good opportunity to discuss more flexible WFH options with managers…etc.
I drive 1.5km to the train station and take the train to work 16km.
At this rate, I'll walk to the station lol.
I in my 30s walk that to the station 4 days a week return.
…assuming the train turns up close to the time it was supposed to and they haven't replaced the train after 2 stops with a bus replacement service…🤔…..Only $11 but you also need to factor in the time wasted with all of the disruptions and delays
And the mental health toll and olfactory toll of sitting next to weirdos and people who smell like 3 day old sweat and dove soap.
We will probably see rationing, and then a sudden 25%+ fall in the price of oil as soon as the USA and Israel declare they're satisfied. Remember that oil prices can do absolutely incredible things, like go negative (April 2020) all of a sudden. Anyone holding contracts for $100 oil will drop them like a hot potato as soon as the Strait is open.
Early covid was awesome. I had the highways to myself and fuel was 95¢ per litre. Great times
Just subsidise all the BYD PHEVs sitting in carparks around Australia. The manufacturer brought heaps into Australia to win off regulatory credits (they could sell their excessive efficiency to other car makers, to allow meeting Australia's average fuel consumption threshold).
Now these vehicles need to move into consumer hands rapidly. For a huge number of people the battery is big enough to cover the entire daily commute in fully electric mode.
Get streamlined with the rebates - you should be able to rock up at one of the storage facilities, sign up to a loan or pay on the spot, and drive away. Number plates should be ready to go too.
I wouldn't mind laying bets on, How many weeks before Trump gets a JFK style headache,
It won't happen, like it or not Australia is a very rich country relative to others.
We can suck it up and pay $3-$4 pretty litre to drive our $100,000 raptors.
If the world loses 20% of its fuel supply permanently, it will be the poor countries that will reduce and miss out as they simply can't afford it.
I predict fuel excise halving or being completely removed temporily within the week.
Will be interesting if other governments e.g. China step in and subsidies the price.
There will also be poor people in Australia that reduce and miss out.
We may be a relatively rich nation, but even poor people here can't exchange law & order or access to medicare and schools for petrol.
law & order
Meanwhile in Victoria the police have seized over 17,000 knives in 2025 and stabbings continue with another 2 random people stabbed in the pst 48hrs.
This is exactly my point, Price will cause the poorest people to ration themselves (both around the world and here in aus) which will mean there is no need for the mandated rationing by the government.
Yes I know. I was just highlighting that 1 in 7 Australians are below the poverty line, 1 in 6 children. So it won't just be the poor countries who hurt.
Just before Easter.
Frankly its the diesel for logistics that worries me, and LNG is going to jump in price. We need to stop gas exports quick.