Not from the economists, the politicians, the news headline. I'm interested in hearing from people on the ground, working in the heartbeat of the economy. What are you seeing in your workplace?
Do you think a RECESSION is coming this year? Has it changed your spending plans?
100%, Aussie governments (all of them) love to have high immigration to help avoid recession (on paper) as it’s bad for election results.
It's a Ponzi scheme
My favourite is when they say the mass migration is due to the skills shortage, particularly in the construction industry, but then when you point out the domestic industry participantion in construction is 4.4% of workforce, and the migrants in the last 5 years have been participating in construction at a 2.8% rate.
…so it very clearly means the 750k per year migrants can't even build enough houses for themselves, let alone our already greatly behind domestic population.
Usually after pointing that out you get called racist though so I've mostly given up hope.
Yep. Business has been screaming for more immigration to address skills shortages for years. Said immigration has most definitely happened, yet we still have a massive skills shortage. Something is not computing there. Importing and Uber Eats driver does not have the economic benefit of importing an electrician
@R4: The current immigration numbers barely put a dent in the skilled shortage numbers which number in the millions, there is most definitely a skills shortage but it is generally in areas that most of the world has the same skills shortage and unfortunately the immigration system is extremely poorly managed (by all governments past and present) so that the actual shortages are not being really addressed.
@gromit: What are the main skills shortage areas in Australia these days? Genuinly interested and I don't really have a clue. What would be a good source to find this information? Other than open jobs on Seek.
@jakentta: Well there is the blatantly obvious with Doctors and Nurses, Tradies, various sectors in the agricultural industry, Engineering.
@R4: It's been decades - 40 years at least, that we've had "skills shortages". The number of skilled immigrants is only a small percentage of the overall immigration intake though.
@insane: Agree but then there needs to be more university slots for Australian citizens and not just importing overseas doctors.
The skills shortage is an absolute farce. In the last 25 years our population has grown by 40% (~8 million people) primarily through immigration and we still have a skills shortage? The incompetence of our government over the years has been unbelievable.
In the last 25 years our population has grown by 40% (~8 million people) primarily through immigration and we still have a skills shortage?
But we have so much variety of foods and flavours /s
I've found the best thing is to just skill up, invest, and leave the country as soon as it's viable. I don't even know what could save it from the current trajectory now when we aren't even allowed to talk about the problem without being called 'extreme right wing'.
Look at the UK - now a totally destroyed woke/surveillance cesspit, and probably a good predictor of how Aus will look in 5-10 years.
Plenty of safe, LCOL places to move to and live in relative luxury if you have even half an Aussie income, and the useful idiots screaming for their own country to be destroyed won't be able to follow us there.
Absolutely 👍
Importing economy is the fave play for useless economic management.
Rather than just letting recessions occur and attempting to make them shallow, they continually pull this BS.
Now any corrections are likely to be depression-esque and compounded by idealogical inflationary drivers (why is the push to zero emissions still a thing?)
Zero emissions is good for the economy…
Like seriously. Its a job maker, improves national security (Norway dgaf about the oil crisis, not because they have massive oil reserves, but because their entire country has basically transitioned to renewables and EVs) and saves money in the long run.
Pretty sure if it wasn't for importing people we would have been in a recession for a while. GDP per capita has been going backwards for ages.
Australia has one of the highest GDP per capita in the world.
E.g. see : https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2024…
We sit at 19th, and if we were to remove all of the special cases and tax havens (e.g. Monaco, Liechtenstein, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Isle of Man…etc.), then we would be within the top 10.
Our growth rate in GDP per capita is higher than most of our comparable peers, including Canada, the EU, and the UK.
People will always complain, but Australia's economy is the envy of the world. This isn't a partisan observation, it has been for the last 30+ years under both ALP and LNP governments. Those who believe our economy is shit should name a place they'd rather be.
Of course you do understand that our GDP includes all the Mineral, coal and gas exports. It's like having a rich uncle
Spot on!!
Sounds like the average salary … some get a big fat lot, others get cents and still the average salary is the highest ever …
GDP is not really a measure of quality of life or affordability.
You and I could pay each other $50,000 to eat an entire bucket of dog poo. But at the end of the day, we both ate sh*t, achieved nothing, produced nothing, and nobody gained money either. But at least the GDP went up by $100k?
Rude but educational (statistically speaking).
GDP per capita has plateaued and on a general downward trend in the last decade, according to the data you linked we peaked in 2013.
GDP per capita has plateaued and on a general downward trend in the last decade, according to the data you linked we peaked in 2013.
Sure, but it's also important to look at it in context, as Australia doesn't exist in a vacuum.
The peak in the early 2010s was due to the global resources boom, and Australia broadly outperforming global peers following the GFC. It was always a short-term outlier which pushed us above our long-run trend. That effect has broadly worn off, and we're just back to our long run trend again.
If you compare Australia to our closest "competitors", we are doing significantly better. For example:
(i) Canada - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2024… - they actually had a higher GDPpc until around 2010, but we've outperformed over the last 20 years
(ii) United Kingdom - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2024… - similar story to Canada, they started above us, but we've outperformed over the last 20 years
(iii) United States - https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD?end=2024… - obviously their GDPpc is higher than us, but if we look over the horizon from 2000, we've actually outperformed the US in terms of growth. It used to be around $35k vs. $20k (which is a 1.75x difference). Now it's around $84k vs. $64k (which is only a 1.31x difference).
Obviously I'm not suggesting that everything is perfect, but I think it's important to be honest about where we're starting from.
Social media has conditioned so many people into thinking that the economy is shit because they don't have a house in Brighton, a holiday house on the Mornington Peninsula, and a Ferrari parked in the garage. The reality is that Australia is one of the best countries in the world to live in, we have abundant resources, we broadly live very comfortable lives, we work less than people in most other countries, have better social services, have more freedom, and are more prosperous.
I think it's important that people discuss how we can improve, but I think grievance culture (from any side of politics) will lead us over the edge of a cliff, adopting destructive policies that will destroy what we have now, and we won't know until it's too late.
@p1 ama: TL;DR: Everywhere is going to shit. But Australia is the least shit in the Anglo countries, although we are catching up.
I think it's important that people discuss how we can improve
Do you though? Or will we just be labelled racist or extreme <left/right insert the one you don't like>-wing if we identify the primary causes of inflation or the primary causes of downward pressure on wages which need to be addressed.
Everywhere is going to shit. But Australia is the least shit in the Anglo countries, although we are catching up.
Name a single country that is supposedly "not going to shit". I'll wait.
Maybe we can learn something from that example.
Do you though? Or will we just be labelled racist or extreme <left/right insert the one you don't like>-wing if we identify the primary causes of inflation or the primary causes of downward pressure on wages which need to be addressed.
Eh, I'm personally not into the whole labelling people thing.
I just think some people ought to touch grass, do some introspection, engage in more community / volunteer work, read more, see how some of our fellow humans live, and spend less time on social media and other echo chambers.
There's a culture of just saying everything's shit, and having no idea of what to do about anything beyond some bland talking points.
No matter how high it is, GDP per capita is going down, and has been for 2 years or so. Coupled with very high cost of living, that is rapidly rising, it's not as sosy as you paint it
This. Australia's mass immigration business model is broken and masking structural problems in our economy. We're going to have to roll back on this and we'll probably get a recession as a result but will benefit in the medium to long term. Canada is ahead of us on this and will be the guinea pig.
It's already here, just not "officially".
It really isn't
Only reason it isn't officially here is because the numbers have been masked with rebates, excessive immigration and public funded (directly or indirectly) jobs. Those are the things keeping us in a GDP per capita recession but not an official technical recession.
I know there's reasons why we're not in a technical recession (some of which you mentioned) but that's the only definition of recession. The Australian government boasts about us having no recession this century (part from during the covid overreaction), but in reality that's done us no favours. Recession (mild hopefully) is kind of necessary as it clears out inefficiencies in the economy, drives productivity and resets expectations.
I thought you meant 'Regarded'
Also, why not make it a poll, we love polls
Well played! I thought it was ‘Regarded’ as well reading the title
Thought I was on WSB for a sec
Buy low, sell high that’s my motto
Kitchen company - first time in 15 years he has no orders on his books.
Car importer - mainly old LHD US cars he revives and resells. Business has stopped dead.
Other than that , apart from petrol, I have been reading about fertilizer shortages, and the huge impact if we can't support this years plantings.
I don't believe in panic, but our government is proving to be so incompetent, anything is possible
Can you send through name or US car importer, looking
When you see people downgrade from a 2J to a small block - that’s the real sign of a recession
Username checks out…
source?
Kitchen company - first time in 15 years he has no orders on his books.
Car importer - mainly old LHD US cars he revives and resells. Business has stopped dead.
I tried Google and AI but mostly generic slop. So, again, can you provide me with something I can read off directly please.
Not just fuel, fertilizer, but also things like pesticides (needed for all modern industrial farming), tyres, etc will be more expensive and/or scarce.
Of course the naysayers will say "the world is awash with calories", which is technically true - but those calories are either in the wrong place (which will need 30 days to get to australia), or of the wrong type (do you really want to subsist on corn, beans and wheat for months/years instead of fresh veggies?).
And everyone else will be simultaneously trying to acquire the same food, so prices will naturally rise.
Let me add some fuel to the fire.
Reasonably large teir 2, international mining company I did some work laid off something like 85% of their city office staff in one go at the end last year.
Usually those guys have info and analysts we don't so it was enough for me to start selling out of my commercial stocks.
Yet iron ore is USD118 today (against an all in landed cost in China of well under USD25). Gold is still hugely up on recent prices with massive investment going into gold mines. Copper doing well and LNG is going flat out. RTIO and FMG planning new mines starting this year. I work in mining and we're expecting a good couple of years.
Even if my kitchen burned down right now I still might not replace it.
Do you think a RECESSION is coming this year?
we are in there now its not coming anymore its here.
TTT
thanks to trump
Our poor economic management has zero to do with Trump or Iran.
Always amazed at how people think US internal policy plays so much on our economic management.
Our debt has nothing to do with the US. It's about to hit a trillion $AUD. That's on us. Not US.
both are possible, we are part of a global economy and a partner of the US, with the latter going mental. Even if you are a trump fan and think its an energy war with china, its going to drive up the prices on everything.
as for the debt Aus could be much better off if there werent so many lobbies and we elected more competent politicians. A good example is there is a whole isle of weedkillers causing birth defects still on sale in bunnings, infrastructure as an afterthought of the carpeting of houses in suburbs.
more transparency is much needed in public spending
Aus could be much better off if there werent so many lobbies and we elected more competent politicians.
We can't elect them if they don't apply in the first place.
@Muppet Detector: i suppose the plan of voting for the craziest person out there no longer seems flawless - less lobbies and more transparency doesnt seem that hard to implement if one really wanted to
@juki: I accept that govt probably resembles a circus but when I go to the circus I'm usually hoping that the lead clown isn't Robert Gray
@juki: It's time to power up the Batsignal. We need Commissioner Jim Gordon and Batman to throw their hats into the ring.
Our poor economic management has zero to do with Trump or Iran.
Suppose you're in charge of Australia's "economic management", what policies do you put in place?
I'd stop finding more ways to spend money I don't have. Sometimes it seems like our govts go looking for things to spend money on knowing full well that we can't afford it.
Other times there seems to be quite a few initiatives that get rolled out without anybody putting much thought into how that should actually look so even though it sounds like an awesome idea, it's poor execution turns into an absolute shit show waste of money.
@Muppet Detector: but sometimes there are things you need and you have to spend money you dont have, also some theorists believe maximising your money is to borrow as much as you can (instead of having 10 bucks you actually have 20) - I'm just saying, it clashes with my own beliefs and cultural background to spend what you dont have. Thats sometimes not good either, as being too prudent can slow everything down (i think it was france that did ok in the 08 crisis because they dont lend out money willy nilly, and stood there shaking their heads at the extravagant americans), i however believe times are no longer the same.
@juki: I completely agree with you.
However there are times to spend and times to invest in our future and there are times to just stop spending for awhile until you've had a chance to catch up a bit instead of doubling down and spiralling out of control.
Yes, the 08 crisis. We are still recovering from that but ever since then we keep inventing poorly thought out, knee jerk "initiatives" (right word?), rushing them through without proper due diligence that continually end up in a (profanity) that benefits very few people but costs the nation significant resources and revenue.
Over and over again.
I'd stop finding more ways to spend money I don't have. Sometimes it seems like our govts go looking for things to spend money on knowing full well that we can't afford it.
Everyone says this, but what are some of the specific things this government (or any previous government) has spent on that you would otherwise choose not to?
@p1 ama: Off the top of my head:
The free laptops for every child 2012
The $3million dollar school halls 2012
The $200,000 science lab upgrades 2012
The various first home owner initiatives.
The various energy subsidies.
The Victorians are currently crying poor and they've got some energy scheme running at the moment that hasn't really benefited those it apparently intended, but hey - hope that I'm wrong.
Then their machete bins FFS! How did competent adults even come up with this concept far less a whole bunch more agree to it?
Similar for the main list, it's not even so much that they were implemented, but the terrible management and due diligence that resulted in such poor results upon roll out resulting in so much wasted and unnecessary spending.
AND whilst I understand why we had to get the NDIS, and even though most see "it costs $48 Billion wtf", without counting what is nolonger funded or funded less and other additional benefits for the whole of society, not just those who qualify for access. (Without NDIS, there would be no at fault insurers, no non fault insurers (think third party car insurance for personal injury for example) and no workers comp at all, not even the current watered down model that we've been left with).
It cannot be denied that it was a poorly researched, planned, projected, rolled out and then managed by subsequent governments (including dumping sectors into it that were never intended to be included in NDIS, instead of funding them in the correct way - meaning people blame NDIS for costs and funding that are supposed to be funded elsewhere, that don't even meet the defined guidelines…) but anyway.
It was like Ms Gillard never wanted it to succeed after she pursued its creation so aggressively and over committing us by ratifying international agreements from the get go.
Her intentions were good, and she really had no choice but to do something because of the fallout and repercussions of the insurance crisis, but she went off half arsed, ignoring all the expert inputs and recommendations that she requested, in an effort to rush it through and get it over the line for election purposes instead of what was actually required.
This resulted in unnecessary opportunities for loopholes, abuse and exploitation that subsequent govts have struggled to roll back or correct.
It's no wonder that it seems like it is out of control, because it absolutely is.
And yes, with NDIS, I am well versed in the history as our Negligence Law course conveyor was one of the key consultants involved in its creation and the honours students at that time were included in a variety of extra curricular workshops and other tasks involved in assisting the role of the lecturer (including assessment of the IPP report and subsequent recommendations and reworking the overarching Negligence Law framework).
@p1 ama: Oh and various development agreements (NT, VIC & Qld come to mind, but maybe others) where developers were granted permission to build IF they included a set number of more affordable type accomodation which attracted additional govt funding…
Well the developments are built, but the required govt funded affordable housing is barely even in the pipeline.
And nobody is doing anything about it. Not even trash media saying "where are the houses you promised us"?
@p1 ama: A more recent favourite was the $750 payment for some workers during Covid.
Yes, essential for many, but too many qualifying for the payment and then receiving more pay than the job it was replacing.
Casuals who previously worked a couple of shifts a week, suddenly getting more than double what they were prior to Covid
And then
When their bosses were struggling to keep their doors open, quite a few whinged about being asked to do extra hours because they would get the $750 whether they worked 8 hours (maybe less) or 20 hours.
That needed to be better managed. I get that it was all created on the fly, so mistakes were inevitable, but some businesses weren't set up to roll it out when necessary resulting in the incorrect jobs attracting the support.
And the whole replacement of the casual wage thing, perhaps that needed to be tempered so that previous wages were being supported, not giving a large number of people a large pay rise for doing no more extra work to earn it.
Why hasn't the centrist government who we just voted in, again, undone everything done from 1993-2007 and 2013-2022. Idk anything about parliamentary process and the senate definitely doesn't exist!!!
As FJ's says, whinge merchants, the lot of you.
And Netanyahu
Thanks to trump… yes, kinda. But thanks to his first term. Not the current term.
And thanks to Jim Chalmers and Anthony Albanese
Salary has gone up 20% since COVID.
Yet, house prices in my area have tripled since COVID.
So, theoretically my purchasing power has decreased significantly since COVID.
Not sure if that's called a recession or not, but I feel much poorer, and I buy lower quality food than I did a decade ago.
You guys got raises at some point between COVID and now!?
mine was 2% what the (profanity).
Pretty much sums it up. Tiny pay rises have in no way kept up with the massively increased cost of housing, fuel, electricity, insurance, food etc etc.
Standard of living is going backward at a rapid rate.
Standard of living is going backward at a rapid rate.
But just think about all the different kinds of food we have available now. Isn't it worth it?
Yay for variety!
But just think about all the different kinds of food we have available now. Isn't it worth it?
Absolutely! I can experience the very yummy foods from many other cultures on a regular basis instead of being restricted to when I visit other countries.
It also provides for an exceptional training ground for our catering industry. They can access such an extensive depth of culinary training to augment the tourist and hospitality sectors by training and staying within Australia instead of losing all that talent to other countries.
Absolutely! I can experience the very yummy foods from many other cultures on a regular basis instead of being restricted to when I visit other countries.
For the record I was being sarcastic. I forgot the /s this time.
You're showing your age or you grew up rural/remote and moved to the city in your adulthood if this is actually a thing.
This hasn't been a thing for at least 3 generations of Australians now. At least 3 generations of Australians have simply grown up (or are presently growing up) with a much wider variety of culinary options than boomers and earlier generations had available. More recent mass excessive migration putting downward pressure on wages and upward pressure on inflation has not been necessary for that (i.e. Labor is anti-labour).
Anyway, like I said, I was being sarcastic.
For the record I was being sarcastic.
Yes.
This hasn't been a thing for at least 3 generations of Australians now.
Yes. I was acknowledging your opinion about our current immigration policy.
Anyway, like I said, I was being sarcastic.
Yes.
Not sure if that's called a recession or not, but I feel much poorer, and I buy lower quality food than I did a decade ago.
But it's more diversity of food and more flavours, right? So you're not really poorer ;)
/s
not really, the packagings have changed and there is a whole lot of shrinkflation or "new recipes"
But there's more variety in the 'world foods' aisle right?
@tenpercent: not really, if anything some areas dedicated to some parts of the world are getting smaller
Yet, house prices in my area have tripled since COVID.
Median house price in Brisbane was $675,000 (see https://www.smartpropertyinvestment.com.au/investor-strategy….) in 2019 (pre-COVID), today it is $1,175,000 (see https://www.smartpropertyinvestment.com.au/hotspots/27527-br…).
This is an increase of 74%, far short of a 200% increase required for a tripling of prices.
Don't let facts get in the way of your grievance though.
Not sure if that's called a recession or not, but I feel much poorer, and I buy lower quality food than I did a decade ago.
You probably feel poorer because you see dumb people on social media flexing on you 24/7, you're likely still doing fine compared to your neighbours.
What foods did you buy a decade ago, and what have you substituted them with today?
Median house price in Brisbane was $675,000 (see https://www.smartpropertyinvestment.com.au/investor-strategy….) in 2019 (pre-COVID), today it is $1,175,000 (see https://www.smartpropertyinvestment.com.au/hotspots/27527-br…).
Those median house prices indices are misleading.
The median price is often affected by the type/category of property that was most commonly sold during the period in question. And it also depends on the individual suburb.
Recently, sub-$1million properties are overwhelmingly in demand due to the 5% deposit scheme. The overall median for Brisbane is dragged downwards by this.
Also, many apartments are selling too now, which are mostly cheaper than houses. The figures you cited are for all dwelling types.
There is also another phenomenon with medians: You will sometimes see nonsense articles claiming "house prices in this suburb rose 30% in 3 months" based on data from those indices. But what actually happened was that only 4 houses in that suburb sold during the period in question, and three of those houses were mega-mansions, causing a jump in the median for that suburb.
When you look at the broad data the way you are, you are not seeing differences between individual suburbs.
There are two ways to get a better snapshot of price rices:
Look at what an individual property sold and then resold for, without any renovations.
Look at what a typical house in an individual suburb sold for during one period, then what the same kinds of houses in the same suburb are selling for in the other period in question.
I'm going to pick a few houses from a quick sold search on realestate.com.au:
This paddington house quadrupled in price over only 13 years:
This Ipswich house sold in 2021 for $370k, then again in 2026 for $960k. Not an exact tripling, but pretty close. In only 5 years.
This Varsity Lakes house sold for $582,000 in 2018, and again in 2026 for $1,440,000.
Anyway, you get the idea. You could find countless examples like this, and in many cases you can find close to tripling in prices in only 5-8 years.
This paddington house(realestate.com.au) quadrupled in price over only 13 years:
but 13 years the place bares almost no resemblance of the current house. It was a jungle in the back, now its could make it on the cover of lux houses or something.
That's not apples to apples.
The Ipswich one is much more comparable, and it did rocket every couple of years with no major improvements.
It was a jungle in the back, now its could make it on the cover of lux houses or something.
You're right, I didn't catch that. Still got asbestos in the ceiling though.
The varsity lakes one is a good example. Plenty of similar houses with similar price rises around there too.
@ForkSnorter: hardly, both interior and exterior, by the looks of it external covered area too. According to listing it was renovated inside and out, including kitche. Hard to tell completely as the old photos only has 7, but it is a pretty significant reno
I see you live in Melbourne, where in melb has house prices tripled?
Nah, I live in SE QLD now.
come back to melb, house prices are barely up if at all.
@cloudy: Melb is actually one of the few places where house prices will likely stay "somewhat affordable" over the next decade. The reason is that much of the land out West, Southeast and North are completely flat, ready for American-style, cookie-cutter suburban housing.
And people want those houses because apartments are terribly built, leaky and potentially costing millions to repair, and then you have strata fees and whatnot. Even worse if it's leasehold. Most would rather have a roof over their heads that they own, otherwise you'll see a lot more suburbs looking like Box Hill.
Where in se qld has house prices tripled since covid? My parents have investment properties in various parts of se qld and none of them have seen that sort of rise.
@gromit: Sorry I should have said “tripled since just before COVID”, i.e. 2016-2019, when prices stayed pretty steady in SE QLD. Plenty of areas where you can see houses sold for ~$450k in Brisbane, Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast during that period, and those same houses or similar are now selling for $1.2-$1.5 million. If you weren’t watching prices in the last half of 2025, you might be aware of what happened.
Pretty sure if it wasn't for importing people we would have been in a recession for a while. GDP per capita has been going backwards for ages.