Bitcoin down 33% - Selling or Holding? (22/12/2017)

Interesting events taking place. Thinking of buying more. Anyone here selling or holding?

Comments

  • +3

    BTFD
    Made several decent swing trades today to increase my bag of BTC.

    • I wanna buy it, where to buy and trade.

      • Independent Reserve or BTC Markets are your best bet due to lower fees (0.5% and 0.85% respectively IIRC)

        • -1

          OP says 33% down, but i can see that the price is still 21000.

        • +1

          @sajju: that was days ago dude, keep up!

  • +19

    Buy buy buy buy buy. Dips are the time to get in.

    • +1

      I anticipate another big drop 1-3 weeks after NYE.
      I think its going to climb back to $16k gradually, then it'll drop down to $9k or lower.
      Let it stall for a couple hours/a day…. then that's when you enter.

      Dips and Rises are good for investors. A steady market isn't.

      • +29

        Not sure it will recover.

        All the new investors got burned. The reason for the dramatic increases were all the new money pouring in.

        That well seems to have dried up and probably wont come back.

        At the end of the day a bitcoin has zero instrinstic value besides perception.

        The network is running like shit. It takes days to confirm a transaction and costs and extra 50 bucks if you want it processed a bit quicker. The power invovled to process a transaction is nuts.

        The currency of the future indeed.

        • +3

          It's already recovering tbh.

          I agree with everything you say nonetheless.

          There needs to be some type of technological advancement with the protocol or mining hardware to speed up transactions.

          I don't think it will be the future currency if things don't change.
          It's only popular because its the first crypto currency.
          Altcoins are the future.

        • +1

          They didn't get burnt that hard, it didn't go to zero - it's only down ~33% which isn't unprecedented.

          If they sold but see it going back up, they'll return because that's the nature of fomo and greed.

        • +6

          The reason for the dramatic increases were all the new money pouring in.

          That well seems to have dried up and probably wont come back.

          You're kidding right? Bitcoin is only peaking into mainstream view, more and more people are going to be rushing in during in 2018.

        • +2

          Same thing happened on the last big rise, up to US$1200. It may take a year or two to recover, or it could recover next week.

          If you believe in the idea of Bitcoin, then it's always a good time to buy.

        • Yeah been stung a bit on fees which then took 4 hours to get 1 confirmation?!! Great core architecture but crappy for real world day-to-day usage. Been getting on PIVX which is super fast low or no fees and based on Bitcoin backbone.

        • @airal3rt:

          Peaking in mainstream view and exchanges are getting done with insider trading and it losing 7000 in value overnight.

          I have money in it myself and used to mine litecoin. However when even the foubders of the altcoins are dumping them its not a good sign.

      • +2

        Let's not get confused here. There's nothing for 'investors' in bitcoin. Not by definition. The price rises are specualtive. Investing doesn't see multiple fold rises in months… that's pure speculative rising.

        THat said, nothing bad about the technology or making money whether it's speculation or 'investing' anyway. Your still making money…

        • -1

          It's gambling. Pure and simple. Not that I see anything wrong with it but you need to be prepared to lose what you invest. If you can't accept that, then it's not recommended to buy. At least with shares, your funds are divested across multiple businesses in the hope that if one drops, you are still making value in your remaining shares. BTC, there's nothing beyond speculative increases & dramatic drops

    • +20

      SELL the house, sell the 4K TV, sell the eneloops, sell everything, and BUY Bitcoin!!!

      • +12

        DONT TOUCH MY ENELOOPS

        • just do Accio Eneloops, problems sorted.

      • +15

        I prefer selling all my Bitcoins and then use all proceeds to buy Eneloops.
        My Eneloops can hold charges longer than Bitcoins.
        My Eneloops won't drop 33% charges suddenly.

  • +47

    HODL

    • +3

      Read through all the comments so far and legitimately, this is the best advice.

    • +13

      I've begun reading this as an acronym for "hold on for dear life."

      • +7

        That's a backronym. HODL is a typo that was embraced by the community.

        • +4

          I guess that makes me a backronist.

  • +8

    I'm hodling till the end - I was expecting something like this to happen. Bitcoin market dominance was dropping over the passed few weeks and alt coins were just going THROUGH the roof. This same scenario played out in June whereby there was a lot of negative press for bitcoin along with forks and also major whales pulling out of crypto etc. and overall it was quite rough - however at the 38% market dominance mark - Bitcoin then Skyrocketd to $20k in value from under $2k. So all in all, there was an expected swing and it was also expected to be dramatic, just couldn't determine in which direction. Similarly, about $140 billion was taken out of the market JUST TODAY. In my opinion, this is major whales at manipulating a large drop on value in anticipation for new Bit Coin modifications like the lightning network - They will then re-enter the market for pennies but this time be backed by better technology and more viable currency that is truly able to compete against the latest alts and their tech being released, by be transaction worthy rather than a store of wealth. I think it's just a consolidation of BC wealth for the future by some major players.

    Or this could be the end. I would rather HODL knowing that the value could go to $100k, if I have to loose my original investment for this chance then so be it, not like Australian property is going to do us any favours for the next 15-20 years.

    • +4

      Good luck holding onto your tuplips until they wither

      • +25

        When you've taken out your original investment, doesn't matter if you're holding tulips or gold you'll always be in profit ;)

      • +5

        What's better than roses on your piano? Tuplips on your organ

        • +1

          A dick joke was what this thread was missing.

      • +2

        At least the Dutch could eat their tulips when the value went to zero.

    • +8

      I honestly think bitcoin will go to a million, it's worth risking a few thousand for a million. The market recovered way too quickly for it not to be manipulation.

      • +6

        There are 21 million potential Bitcoins available. Your valuation puts their value at 21 trillion dollars.

        World GDP this year is about 78 trillion…Do you have any context of this situation?

        • +4

          Do you have any context of this situation?

          He heard it on the news and believed it.

    • +2

      This will be $100k in 2018. Screenshot this.

      • +2

        When people say price will go to X

        You should ask yourself who is the buyer and if you can honestly incision someone who will, then sure. Why not

      • No, it will be $550k.

  • +2

    Just keep buying, the whales need someone on the other side of the transaction.

    This is normal, as long as you aren't adding to the marginal sellers, then you won't pull down the price.

    This is just end of the year selling. People are selling for tax purposes and to crystalise their gains.

    Hope that there will be someone to take it off your hands next year for a higher price.

    • by selling for tax purpose do you mean people in the state ?

      • +2

        Yeah, in many countries the tax year turns over on New Years Day.

    • +3

      Don’t you sell for tax purposes only if you are making a loss to offset your capital gains in other investments?

      • +7

        ROFL tax purposes my ass.

        Most investors in bitcoin use it precisely because its anonymous and no taxation applies to profits made.

        • You should be aware that tax DOES apply to Bitcoin profits.

          Any money you make off cryptocurrency is treated as a Capital Gains event by the ATO.

          Of course, you can choose not to declare it and see what happens, but that is tax fraud.

          https://www.ato.gov.au/General/Gen/Tax-treatment-of-crypto-c…

          Bitcoin is, however, an asset for capital gains tax (CGT) purposes.

        • @blackfrancis75: I've seen one (possible) way to get crypto out, outside of their view. Albeit slowly. Find a bitcoin ATM, withdraw the max. allowable per day. Only problem is you can be sure gov. is feverishly looking for a way to shove their fingers into your digital wallets. Once they do, you can bet they'll apply it retrospectively for the past x years.

        • +4

          @GregMonarch:
          I have a much better plan.

          Invest in BitCoin, cheap/early better.
          Fly to USA
          Open a bank account in USA.
          Cash out all the BitCoins to US Account.
          Cash out all USD into physical Silver.
          You might have 10 BTC, which converts to $20k x 10 = $200,000, which converts to $20M / 520 = 385KG of Silver.
          Now you buy a neat '69 Mustang, and mend your silver into the metal of the car.
          The weight will mostly be masked by the car. And inspectors won't now silver from polished metal, and have no reason for testing.
          Import your Mustang to Australia and spend some money on shipping, insurance, etc etc.
          Drive/Tow the car to your garage.
          Dismantle the silver from the car.
          Melt the silver back into 1KG Bullion bars.
          Offload the bars as necessary.

          You can also do this multiple times, say if you had 1,000BTC. Selling the Mustang will recoup your expenses in the initial purchase, shipping, insurance, forging, and time.

          You can live off the silver slowly, but something better would be to find a private buyer to sell his land and property to you. And sell it very cheap, example, a large empty farm worth $400k for only $50k. You pay him $50k from your Bank and are taxed for it and stamp duty as well. However, you also give the seller $350k in physical silver, so now he has untraceable assets. Physical Cash would be great, but to offload millions of dollars worth of physical silver to cash at jewellers would take a long time and eat greatly into your margins.

          Gold is easy to spot, you want something that's in ways camo. Not sure about Platinum.

          I'm sure someone else on OzBargain has thought of a better way to convert BitCoins into AUD, Bullion, or Land in Australia without declaring most of it or losing much margins.

        • @Kangal:

          Sounds elaborate - but aren't they going to ID you when you open your US bank account - which is then traceable?

        • @danyool:
          Not if I use my real name Lag Nak.

    • +8

      What a load of crap I just read

  • +6

    Just going to leave my Discord here https://discord.gg/eFtQ3RK - Originally made for a few of us that were heavily trading iota to share market estimations based on timing.. now is slowly growing out to other coins the more I'm not lazy and I actually take the time to share it, like now, except on places like cryptocompare.

    Anyway, wanted to leave a link here as most of the people talking in server, have large positions of 10-100k in 'mostly' alt coins, though BTC is still closely watched due to it being the one coin that can effect the entire market.
    Feel free to join and just listen as we talk, feel free to ask for advice or feel free to join in!

    Though we do not offer 'official' advice, especially as that would most likely be a paid service.. What I can say is, since we started, not one of us isnt up around 400% on average, for the last 6 weeks. Quite a few people just started trading without knowing anything, not even how investment markets work.. other than us throwing predictions off each other and now they are up atleast 2x for something that they thought they could never profit from or it was an exclusive club.

    Again, link is https://discord.gg/eFtQ3RK for casual crypto-currency chat. (It is most busy (atm) in the late/morning Australian hours, but alot of people just go back in chat history anyway.

    • +12

      Just curious, what is your background compared to the people who have been trading without an understanding of financial markets?

    • Can you please tell me what you use to buy your cryptocurrency?

      • He uses binance and btcmarkets iirc

        • What is btmarkets iirc?

        • @Ronnie23: btcmarkets.net

        • @Ronnie23: "iirc" = if I remember correctly.

      • binance, bittrex and bitfinex(main)

  • +6

    lol

  • +4

    Some pullback is healthy imo. The ridiculous mempool clog-up isn't; probably stopping a lot more people from shorting xD

    • +3

      Considering 1000% price increase in the YTD after the dip is factored in, I agree.

      Ppl tend to forget that you assess market performance in the months and years, not days and weeks. And BTC has had an outstanding year.

  • +5

    Only taxes and your age keep going up

    • +4

      and weight.

    • Even taxes can come down and then go up again

  • +7

    It's Tulipmania again.

  • +4

    BC Bubble just around the corner, get your tissue boxes ready.

    • +11

      If I had a dollar for every time I've falsely heard that I'd be able to buy a $20k Bitcoin!

      • +1

        People would be pounding down your door to sell you BTC for $20k. What a difference a few hours makes.

        • +2

          And people will be paying for an armed militia to storm my house and buy BTC at $20k when those few hours make a difference again.

        • -2

          @airal3rt: So you're saying bitcoin will be $40k, maybe much more very soon? I like your optimism.

        • +3

          @Cluster:

          Nope, I'm saying it'll be back over $20k very soon.

    • +3

      The idiot who sold his house and bought bitcoins won’t be having s merry Christmas this year

      • +2

        He got in relatively early.. most gains in last few weeks

      • +5

        Depends, if he sold last year and held till today, he would be able to afford his house back x10.

      • +2

        That idiot was me!!! No wonder they call me craysee!

  • +31

    It feels like millennials and Gen Y revenge against baby boomers for ruining the property market. 'I can't buy your property for a reasonable price so come invest in my made up intangible money that exists in 1 and 0's.' Quite funny when you look at it that way.

    • +4

      'made up', just like your inflationary fiat that devalues every time you wake up in the morning.

      • +2

        Inflation so people actually spend it as a currency. Unlike bitcoin which is fixed supply which results in people holding for speculation and unless its eventually changed will never be a currency.

      • +1

        I might have believed the whole bitcoin taking over fiat currency a year or two ago - but that rhetoric has long passed. Bitcoin is far too unstable to be a currency, and as it currently stands, it isn't a currency - because no sane person would use it as such (aside from purchasing illegal goods) considering it could be worth twice as much in a week.

        Maybe regular inflationary fiat currency devaluates a tiny amount every time you wake up in the morning like you say, but with bitcoin every time you wake up in the morning you need to check whether you've lost half your money or whether you've doubled it.

    • +7

      You realize by now most money is 1's and 0's right?

    • +1

      As Enron, the late 1920s, and GFC proved, NO investment is safe - not even property - no matter how much due diligence you think you've put in. In history even private possession of gold has been outlawed by governments. It's ALL gambling. People only think certain things are not gambling, because they haven't seen it drop in their time 'investing' in it.

  • Reading about the Mrs Watanabe Japanese influence is really interesting. Japan homemaker wives are quite big (mug) players in the bitcoin market. Fun reading.

    • Mrs Watanabe may be jumping from bitcoin to in front of a train after tonight.

      • +4

        Or wait a month and it will be pushing to record highs

        I swear you people have no idea about bitcoins history.

  • +8

    Bitcoin can't rise 20% on a daily basis without some sort of pull back. Yes I know, new paradigm, blockchain, crypto currency, it's different this time (except it's not).

    Bitcoin has crashed 80% in the past (2011) and risen again, so even if it retraces all the way back to $4k it's still all perfectly fine. Remember, bitcoin works just as well when it's valued at $100 as it does at $100k.

  • +1
    Merged from Bitcoin Is Now under USD $14000. What is your action plan?

    This thing is just so volatile i love it.

    For long time holder:
    * did you sell into the rise/drop or
    * are you still holding ?

    For people who bought in the last 3 months:
    * did you sell into the rise/drop or
    * are you averaging up ?

    For people who bought in the last 3 weeks:
    * did you sell into the drop or
    * are you averaging down ?

    Position: just an amused observer.

    • +4

      Regulators around the world have stepped up their warnings about its provenance as an investment.
      Its origins are only barely understood, its volatility is extreme and its use as a currency is limited.

      One of this week's most striking comments comes from Denmark's central bank governor, who called it a "deadly" gamble.
      Earlier this month, the head of one of the UK's leading financial regulators warned people to be ready to "lose all their money" if they invested in Bitcoin.

      • When you start hearing things like that from the usual suspects it's usually a good buy signal IMO. The establishment will try to keep it down until they have either bought their fill or developed their own blockchain tech.

        • +10

          Lol. You sound like the posters on hotcopper who also like to blame downrampers - funds driving share price lower to accumulate etc.

          Very funny

        • +6

          The bubble in gold and silver following the GFC burst, and was based on a lot more than tokens.

          During the crash gold and silver fell to their fundamental value - how much it costs to dig an ounce out of the ground

          Bitcoin also has a fundamental value of production - what is the price of electricity required to generate one bitcoin? If it is not $10,000 then prepare to be disappointed

        • @Superannuation: sensible and 100% agreed. That’s what I been saying. Bitcoin will continue to exist So black market can operate a lot easier. The production value is roughly 5k USD in America. Can be cheaper or more expensive, depends on a lot of factors (where and type of the electricity is generated from, taxes, you name it). So I estimate bitcoin to crash to around $5k if not lower.

      • +7

        Couldn't agree more. It's just good old "irrational exuberance" once again just like every other investment bubble. Google it before you risk your money. Its just another form of gambling, you are making money at someone else's expense, just like a Ponzi / Pyramid scheme. Eventually you will run out of other people in the market willing to pay more money for it and it will crash.

        As an investment class it also suffers terribly from regulatory risk, google that too. That will probably start the freefall that brings about the tears.

        Real Currencies are not supposed to go up and up, that's called inflation. If it were a real currency, its buying power with such inflation would be buying less and less. The only reason people are buying it is because of the exchange rate back to real money… and that is a bubble.

        Will people make money out of bitcoin, yes sure, some people will make lots of it. Will people lose money out of bit coin, yes lots… Equally as many because all you are doing is shifting money around from person to person. I don't like lose/win investments.

        Proper investments earn money through economic productivity, like a business. As Warren Buffet said, don't invest in anything unless you understand how it makes money… in this case it is simply from convincing someone else to pay more for it (i.e. via the market forces).

        Know this, you can make money, but it will eventually crash… will you be holding it when it does?!

        • +2

          Thank you for trying to talk some sense here. I hope someone takes your advice seriously

        • I don’t think you actually know what you’re talking about. Cryptocurrency markets are not zero sum games so one persons winnings don’t automatically imply another person’s losings. More currency gets injected into the market, the amount of which is exponentially decreasing until it hits its limit. As the currency enters the market the value often increases without someone having to make a winning trade at the expense of a losing trade on the other end.

          Have a read of this if you’re interested:
          https://medium.com/@tbizi/crypto-is-not-a-zero-sum-game-by-a…

      • +1

        Meh - there's always naysayers with ANY investment/opportunity. If you're silly enough to put your life savings into something, it's on your own head. But how many people would actually do that? Not many. But these 'dire warnings' will keep even people away, who would've only put a fraction of their money in. If they were the kind of person that would put everything in they have, they're just as likely to go and do it with the stock market, and/or some pimple-faced CBA broker who will only ever recommend the safest of everything, which gives below average returns, which they can STILL lose out on (like happened only a few years ago with pensions).

        In every investment/opportunity, someone wins, someone loses. But funny how governments aren't calling lotto/bingo/real estate/raffle tickets/keno/poker machines/the stock market/etc - a 'deadly gamble'. Government has it's fingers in all those things but they don't with crypto. Not directly, anyway.

        It's fear mongering. Scare tactics to prevent people who would have only put a small amount in anyway, from possibly coming out with a lot - but openly sanctioning other forms of gambling. (And all those things are gambling. They just fail less often, is all.)

        Even having money in the bank is gambling. We're trusting that government, banks, and everyone around us will still value it the same tomorrow. But there's no guarantee of that. It's an illusion that is only real because everyone else says it is. Just like crypto. In the same way everyone thought dinosaurs were fantasy when we heard tales of knights slaying dragons, and seeing Chinese dragons in parades… Until someone dug up the bones of a T-rex.

        (People believe what they see - and disbelieve what they haven't seen. The only thing that makes property/cash/stocks 'safe', is people not having lost everything in them - lately.)

    • +2

      Meh. This isn't the first time it's dropped significantly. Weak hands will sell at a loss and panic buy back in when it starts to rise again.

    • +6

      The smart money has been selling to the suckers for weeks now.

      Watch out for the dead cat bounce

      • Agree. For those of you who bought at the right time and sold off before Xmas and early Dec. Good on you

    • +2

      just trading the bounces for 5-10% each time. plenty of panic sellers and fomo buyers waiting to throw money at you.

      I'll only go long when its really bottomed or when I get a strong signal that the bears are gone.

  • +5

    Big, big crash on the way.

    • +2

      followed by a recovery and another crash. Look, I'm Nostradamus!

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