Well, that's Holden stuffed. Where do people think that the economy is headed?

cannedhams on 11/12/2013 - 15:34
Last edited 11/12/2013 - 16:57 by 1 other user

Holden will stop production in Australia from 2017:-

http://www.smh.com.au/drive/motor-news/holden-to-cease-manuf…

Ford has already bowed out. It will be all but impossible for Toyota to sustain local production on its own.

50,000 workers in the Automotive sector. Plus the knock-on effect for all the people who cut their hair and cook their burgers and chips.

Softening terms of trade, business and consumer confidence down, it certainly doesnt bode well for the near future.

Anyone got any views on where the economy is headed?

Edit (_Bruce_): Corrected statistics.

• 1
• 2
• 3
• 4

• 

  Cheeper on 14/12/2013 - 22:20

  Failing auto makers in aust are not new… anyone remember the Nissan/VW/Volvo factory in Melbourne, the British Leyland factory..?
  Anyone know of any others that have shut down?

  • 

    BartholemewH on 15/12/2013 - 11:28

    Mitsubishi 380.

  • 

    branners on 16/12/2013 - 13:10

    A number of makes used to be made here on a CKD basis ('Completely Knocked Down'). That meant that a majority of the parts would be imported and then assembled here in body shells that were either imported as well or stamped here. The reason was that the federal government gave manufacturers a break on import duty on the basis that local jobs would be created.
    That ended when the tariffs started to come down, first during the Whitlam era and then, for serious, as a part of the Button Car Plan (1983 and later). The idea was to force car makers to build better cars; anyone who ever drove an Aussie-built VW Golf or a Nissan Pintara would say it worked.

• 

  tsunamisurfer on 15/12/2013 - 16:03

  +1

  Toyota have an opportunity to hire exiting Holden workers at a lower rate than its existing staff. It should start structuring their agreement that new employees will be under a separate deal.

  • 

    branners on 17/12/2013 - 10:45

    +1

    Not sure that would be legal, given that there would be EBAs already in place between Toyota and the unions and its workforce.
    Plus, Holden makes cars in Elizabeth in northern Adelaide and Toyota makes cars in Altona in northern Melbourne. Workers are unlikely to up stumps and move interstate for a job that pays less than their current one, particularly since Toyota is not guaranteeing tenure of its own manufacturing infrastructure.

• 

  philart on 15/12/2013 - 17:20

  It's headed for a recession, I forecast it this time last year when all the profligate spending on future projects were being made. The assumption then was that the mining boom would never end. The NBN,Gonski,NDIS all being paid for from anticipated mining/growth in the economy or with increased borrowing. The previous government well and truly fixed up the in coming government as they would have realised back then that they were unlikely to be left holding the baby.

  Recessions like credit agency triple AAA ratings are not a result of what happens a few months earlier - but years earlier, so the recession we're going to have to have, might turn up 2014/15. Another thing I'll forecast is the former government will do what we expect politicians to always do by arguing that they warned the Aussie people over the consequence of electing Abbott & Hockey. Bet your last dollar on it. They're already blaming a 3 month old government over the Holden decision while they conveniently air-brush out the Ford story.

• 

  ankor on 15/12/2013 - 21:01

  +1

  Forgive me for being stupid, but what are the compelling reason for why we need manufacturing in Australia?

  • 

    JohnHowardsEyebrows on 15/12/2013 - 22:01

    There are some arguments regarding being ready for heavy manufacturing in time of war. Other than that, it's mainly to keep alive all of the companies in a typical manufacturing supply chain, which are always a lot longer than those in service industries. This can be managed, but the fact that we're slipping down the education scale, and aren't investing in broadband, suggests we'll struggle there, too.

  • 

    OzzyOzbourne on 16/12/2013 - 13:38

    it's best to have a broad spread of industries to have a balanced economy, unless you have an endless source of something you can sell forever and everyone has money to buy that because they are all employed in that industry too.
    For example, England thought they didn't need manufacturing and it all but disappeared, because people felt prosperous as property prices were sky-rocketing and banks we doing well. When that all changed, there was nothing to fall back on.
    Australia has mining at least, but what percentage of people are employed in mining and what about the other people? There are services, property, etc, but without skilled engineering and manufacturing and lots of people out of work, demand will drop along with skills and education due to becoming a service economy, servicing other services.

• 

  bam on 15/12/2013 - 22:12

  +1

  Your "New for Old" insurance policy on the commodore is going to look a little silly in 2017.

• 

  branners on 16/12/2013 - 13:23

  +1

  A brief comparison;
  It is almost 40 years since colour TV came to Australia. When my parents were shopping for our first set, about half the sets on the market were made here. Companies like Rank Arena, Philips and AWA made TV sets in Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney. Our first set was an imported model, which was slightly (not by much) costlier than a local brand. Dad spent about 4 weeks pay on it.
  Nobody expects a locally built TV any more. They all come from Korea, China or Malaysia. I bought a Samsung a year or so back and the guy in the store made a big deal that it was 'real Korean', as opposed to made in Malaysia! That set cost me 3 DAYS pay.
  The government of the day threw the otherwise sound TV manufacturing business out in the pursuit of a more equitable and free market. It would appear that the 2013 government is doing the same with the car industry, for similar reasons.
  Few — very few — Chinese-made cars are now sold in Australia. That will not be the case in 10 years time. The job to which current Holden MD Mike Devereux will move when he finishes with Holden is in Shanghai, overseeing a dramatic expansion in GM's Chinese manufacturing capability. You can bet a lot more Holdens and other brands will be heading to Australia from China in the next decade.
  Audi makes cars in India. So does Mercedes-Benz. How long before you can by an A4 quattro or an E-Class built in India, for 30 percent less than a 'German' one?
  I am not agreeing with the decision or disagreeing, nor am I commenting on what views others have expressed in this thread. I just hope that the brains trust in Canberra have figured out what comes next.

  • 

    OzzyOzbourne on 16/12/2013 - 13:42

    +3

    I agreed with everything you said until you mentioned 'brains' and 'Canberra'! I know you were being sarcastic!

    The government simply don't care as they won't be in office when the xxxx finally hits the fan. They care about votes and most people not working at Holden, or Ford would say their taxes should not be wasted supporting large corporations. That's as far as they think. The government wants votes from the majority, who generally think like this.

• 

  jillbob on 17/12/2013 - 09:51

  -7

  THIS SITE IS TO POST BARGINS. REMOVE THIS RUBBISH

  • 

    Speckled Jim on 17/12/2013 - 14:51

    +7

    You want the forums removed?
    If reading forum posts gives you a headache, double-vision or nausea, take a healthy dose of the Deals area.

    Or buy OzBargain yourself and remove the forums altogether!

• 

  ofey on 18/12/2013 - 07:52

  +1

  It's the best time to be in Government.
  If the Libs bring down the National Debt or improve the overall economy, they'll claim credit.
  If it goes the other way, they just point at the legacy left by the previous Labour Government.

  No lose situation.
  Pointing the finger goes a long way.

  • 

    T1OOO on 18/12/2013 - 07:57

    If the government dosnt keep the people happy they won't b the government for longer. Paying of debt. Tightening out belts and making us go with out the things were accustomed to won't do that.

• 

  T1OOO on 18/12/2013 - 07:53

  +1

  House prices will deflate. And about time.

  • car makers stuffed
  • most manufacturing stuffed
  • education on decline (intonational students)
  • mining and resources boom is a bust. Low demand from china with a high dollar.
  • massive gov deficates

  All means the property market will normalise. Finally. From 2000 to 2008 we road the crest of the above points with too many bumpkin daygo drongo bogan trogladites earning far far too much with just a grade 6 education and borrowing beyond their sustainable means having too many slack jawed kids and getting their plasma cheques. Prett much destroying australia in the process.

  • 

    edgar28 on 18/12/2013 - 12:00

    housing boom talk has been around for more than 5 years. Many believed the news and missed out so much and become more unaffordable.

    for example, in 2005, the house price in one area was 200k, in 2009 it gone up to 500k (same area).
    in 2013 if it does "burst" by 50%, it still 250k…..
    Through history, the biggest burst in Australia is 30% ?

    • 

      T1OOO on 18/12/2013 - 20:08

      Inflation means its a real fall without the numbers going down. Ie put that money in 7.5% long tern high yells bonds. Or get 3% retune on that house that was 200. Went up to 500 and now 10 years later us 250k. Uv lost cash.

      Also. ALL FED AND STATE GRSNTS run out end of 2015. That's no assistance propping up ur deposit or covering dtsmpdutey. All means property will self correct. The northern suburbs of adelaide like anyone even gives a crap will see American style house prices crash. Most others will correct by 20-30% over the next 5-7 years.

• 

  Cheeper on 19/12/2013 - 22:37

  Manufacturing thrives on cheap labour.

  Is it doom and gloom ahead for Australia? Who really knows? Look at Japan… they were a manufacturing giant and to some degree still are but look at their economy.

  Lack of employment for the lower educated & unskilled is the ever increasing problem here. It results in higher crime rates, personal disorder for many and in the long term an addiction to welfare which is now rampant.

  I used to work for a large employer where through automation they only require 25% of the staff they did 20 years ago. It may be a saving for the business but a big loss all around for people who need to earn a living and make a life.

• 1
• 2
• 3
• 4