Should I Buy Home in Melbourne or Wait

LOzlover007 on 29/02/2016 - 16:17
Last edited 29/02/2016 - 23:45

Dear Fellows,

I 'm very confused making this decision. If i should buy a home in Melbourne (Northern Suburbs) or Wait as price is still keep going up. i got 60-70 K as deposit. but many people saying market is due for correction which holds me taking this Big step as i don't want to be the last one entering market when it's going down.
I 'm self employed with single income. no family in Aus to support. I got pre approval upto 420K ATM. Looking into North region (Roxburg Park, Craigieburn , Dallas, Meadow height ,cambpellfield etc)

Thanks in advance for your feedback.

addition: I'm looking this home for living at least 3 Bed rooms but bigger land size.
by reading at feedback i feel it doesn't matter if i'm buying now for long term it won't effect. my Budget is only 420-430K and can i get some suggestions about Suburb in North where i get value for money. I looked previously ( Fawkner, lalor, epping , Greenvale ) but prices are higher then my budget so options i can see are like Dallas, Coolaroo, campbellfield and surrounding suburbs

Thanks again for all your feedback

Poll Options

  • 24
    Buy Now
  • 1
    Wait for few more months
  • 10
    Buy Next Year
Financial

Comments

  • ykwon10 on 29/02/2016 - 16:20
    +6

    That is what people have been saying for the past 20 years and they are still waiting while others have made thousands/millions. If its a principle home, go for it when you can afford to. Just my opinion.

  • 2jzzzz on 29/02/2016 - 16:22
    +1

    Why those areas? If it is investment, there's better areas.

  • angelkulit025 on 29/02/2016 - 16:24

    The earlier you buy, the earlier you can pay it off. I assume you are currently renting at the moment, so if you buy your first home now, just treat is like paying a rent through your mortgage which in time will be yours.

  • danield on 29/02/2016 - 17:20
    +4

    there's a saying.. "The best time to buy was yesterday…." Ive only ever seen it go one way.. I wouldn't want to be betting against the trend.

    • tomleonhart on 29/02/2016 - 18:05

      Just remember "The trend is you friend… until the bend at the end".

      But yeah, if this is your OO, buy now. You would pay the same amount in rent anyway.

      • chumlee on 01/03/2016 - 09:21

        "Trend is your friend until the bend" when's the bend coming though?

        • tomleonhart on 01/03/2016 - 09:29

          Let me consult my crystal ball !
          .
          .
          .
          .
          Even the crystal ball doesn't know!

    • Flet on 02/03/2016 - 08:47

      A significant global decline in property prices is not likely til about 2026/27 according to Fred Harrisons 18 year cycles. He has an accurate track record since the 1980s.

      In 1983 in his book “The Power in the Land” he predicted the 1992 economic downturn.

      In 1997, in “The Chaos Makers” he predicted the depression of 2010. Quote:

      “By 2007 Britain and most of the other industrially advanced economies will be in the throes of frenzied activity in the land market…Land prices will be near their 18-year peak… on the verge of the collapse that will presage the global depression of 2010. The two events will not be coincidental: the peak in land prices not merely signalling the looming recession, but being the primary cause of it.”

      His work is a stark contrast to the 2005 reassurances from Greenspan and Bernanke who are blinded by orthodox economics which assumes the land market is no different than markets of man-made products.

      Here is a link to a 2012 article by another economist who uses the 18year cycle:

      http://foldvary.blogspot.com.au/2012/09/real-estate-forecast…

      Harrison’s website:
      http://www.sharetherents.org/

      Australian author, Philip J Anderson has a book on the 18 year cycle “The Secret Life of Real Estate and Banking”. A Prosper Australia link to His presentations:

      https://www.prosper.org.au/2015/03/20/land-takes-all-the-gai…

  • geek001 on 29/02/2016 - 17:27
    +1

    If I were you, I would buy if I see something I like at a good price. All this talk of correction is good for you when you are negotiating. Whether or not there is a correction, who knows. But I have never seen any correction in Australia's capital cities for average homes, only multi million dollar homes that got sold for way too much during good times and sold for what it is actually worth during a GFC. Prices maybe stagnant, but I doubt we will see a large correction to house prices.

    • Euphemistic on 02/03/2016 - 14:12

      I agree. The correction, assuming it comes soon, will not drop the value of a 'normal' style house by much. The prices are more likely to stagnate as affordability catches up. We are unlikely to see another GFC for a long time but corrections will still occur.

      Locally here when I bought my first house (97) it maintained its value for a number of years, then all of a sudden went up by a fair bit in 12 months. Then it plateaued for a while and went up again in the last couple of years.

      • geek001 on 02/03/2016 - 14:45

        Actually, you know what? I wouldn't say no GFC for a long time, I think another GFC is likely next year. House prices would not go down by much though, mainly most people has the psychological barrier to selling something for less than what they paid for capital assets.

        • Euphemistic on 03/03/2016 - 09:40

          I think GFC was a term for a massive crash, Global Financial Crisis. GFC next year? Maybe that will be a Global Financial Correction, not a crisis.

  • abovethelimit on 29/02/2016 - 17:33

    Nothing can stay up or stay down all the time….Fact of life…what goes up has to come down at some point. Housing market as the rumors say are overvalued in Sydney and Melb particularly. If it's u r main home and not investment, I would take the plunge when you're ready as it would be a while before you plan to sell it and hardly ever go to negative equity in a decade. In saying that, do as much research as possible about the suburb you're looking at, its median price, property report, recent sales etc to get an idea of how much u can buy a 3 or 4 bedder. Even though this is a buyers market now..bargain as much as you can….u never know unless u ask…..again…common sense prevails. You wouldn't buy a million dollar house in dodgy burbs….so yeah…do your due diligence and make sure you pay the right price for the right property and have an emotional disconnect when it comes to the property. Good luck.

  • brokenglish on 29/02/2016 - 19:20
    -3

    House prices will always increase no matter what people say.
    They know you're definitely and absolutely going to get one.
    Marketing BS.

    This is like you are buying a growing rose that has yet to bloom for your GF (somehow you can only afford to buy an unbloomed rose).
    The florist would say, oh the rose will go back to being a seed and it will cost cheaper if you buy it in the future.
    You know damn well that is not true!
    Then you realise your GF was snatched away by the one who bought the growing rose…

    DAMN IT REAL ESTATE!

    BUY NOW

  • rawm on 29/02/2016 - 19:30
    +4

    As someone who lives in Melbourne's North (Gladstone Park) I'd say Buy Now - waiting is futile, especially if you need a home to live in, and If this is likely to be your principal home, I'd definitely do the following (based on your details):

    a) Buy a small home near Coolaroo Station - best value long term bet to buy near a major transport hub. http://imgur.com/GVigBS3

    b) Buy near Roxburgh Park Station/Shopping Centre - again, another transport hub and shopping centre also - harder to find small home, but can be done. http://imgur.com/tWGSQ9B

    c) Wait a little longer and buy land & home at 'Greenvale Central'; a new development near Greenvale.http://www.mpa.vic.gov.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/Greenvale-Central-PSP_updated.pdf

    This will be new home, close to Greenvale Shops and will fetch a decent long term price. http://imgur.com/SEIP4BS

    Full perspective image here:
    http://imgur.com/Vld7I4z

    IMO stay clear of Roxburgh Park and Craigieburn if possible.

    Goodluck!

    • Banana on 29/02/2016 - 22:00
      +1

      Yo, just a Tulla fella checking in!

  • GameChanger on 29/02/2016 - 20:58
    +1

    If you plan to stay long term i.e 10 years its irrelevant what prices are today.

    Your main concern should be if you can factor in increased interest rates in the future.

  • mskeggs on 29/02/2016 - 21:18
    +3

    It is very scary to see all these posts adamant that prices will only go up.
    If you can afford a house and you are happy paying what the mortgage will be, fine.
    But consider how will further price rises be paid for?
    I don't think they really can be, so there can't be too much upside left.
    I wouldn't be buying an investment property now.

  • Banana on 29/02/2016 - 22:04

    I looked up my old Roxy home from 6 years ago and it hasn't gone up in price by that much. Like someone has mentioned earlier, I will stay clear of Craigieburn and Roxburgh Park. My family has bought a land in Greenvale recently at a pretty steep price IMO, 3 years ago it was 1/3 of what we paid. Maybe consider that.

    Have you looked at Maribyrnong area? It is very nice and judging by your deposit it is pretty affordable too!

  • coolc on 01/03/2016 - 09:16

    Coolaroo
    Broady
    Roxy
    Meado heights

    Even old craigieburn area

    Stay away.

    Banana : what is the reason you think ?

    • rawm on 01/03/2016 - 09:53
      +1

      Why stay away from Coolaroo????

      OP want's a 3BR and good value for money.

      Positives

      • Minutes drive from Broadmeadows or Roxburgh Park SC
      • Close to Melbourne Airport
      • Walking distance to Coolaroo station
      • Lots of parkland nearby (see map)
      • Majorly cheap compared to homes/land in other areas near train stations eg Glenroy, Pascoe Vale
      • Gentrification in 10-15years will ensure prices don't go down at all

      Negatives

      • Some crime and 'undesireables' (You'll find this anywhere)
      • Perception of it being a 'blue collar' suburb

      http://imgur.com/0xtRKhv = these are the streets I'd nail down my search to. Buy walking distance to Station, you can't go wrong.

  • danger163 on 23/07/2017 - 22:28

    Whats wrong with craigieburn?

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