So as per following article, Sydney house clearance rate is declining since last 3 weeks. This may be due to Easter holidays.
http://www.afr.com/personal-finance/sydney-house-price-slump…
Not sure how much truth is there in this article but in Melbourne I noticed that each week less number of houses are coming for sale in last 2 weeks.
It's clearly a bubble, but you can be right too early:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/keen-to-climb-kosciuszko-afte…
BTW - I think most of Keen's economics is hopeless, but he is right on house prices.
The idiot even sold his apartment back then cause of an imminent property crash. He could have tripled his wealth if he held on to his place
I was a Keen believer in the day…..(Slaps self on back of head)
For the market to come crashing down on our heads, unemployment needs to rise to levels that more than a certain % of mortagees cannot sustain their repayments, forcing an influx of properties to the market. Then supply will be greater than demand, which will create a spiral affect causing a very big property crash. The problem is in predicting this %, which is pretty hard to do.
This of course will be predicated on rates, if the banks keep raising rates independant of the RBA, then it will happen sooner rather than later. Clearance rates are not a very good indicator of anything really unless it is trending down over a long period of time. Even then there could be many underlying factors at play besides a bust scenario.
Less houses are coming onto the market because peak season of Spring to Easter (sans xmas) is over.
Now is where you'll see prices drive higher because less stock and still plenty of buyers.
Housing is considered a "safe" place to put money - hence the influx of a lot of overseas money into our housing market. Apparently studies on the apartments at Docklands show an appreciable number are actually empty - which is partially balanced by the numbers that have excess numbers of people living in them. If I had my time over again I would've bought a bucket of places back when you could get good victorian terrace places in Fitzroy for $150,000. Back in the 1980s my other half's brother bought a terrace in Fitzroy for $55,000 and we were scandalised they had bought something so expensive.
If this was solely based on house price/income ratio for Australians I would say bubble - based on overseas interest who can tell. The issue will probably come to a head if there is a reason for the overseas buyers to pull out, e.g. China really cracking down on overseas investors.
China jas been a curse for Australia, the easy money from resources has killed our manufacturing. When the dust settles we will realise we have nothing and the service sector (nation) can only accommodate 60% of the workforce at best.
No one wants to fund the Adani deal and Barnaby is found crazy rhetoric about it. As he knows digging shit up and selling it for nothing is all we have left.
I wouldn't like to have a million dollar mortgage when the Ponzi crumbles.
Winter?
I gave up speculating on the bubble five years ago, if you are particularly interested in bubbles you must read Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, really underlines the popular quote “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” ….Tulips anyone????