Anyone Here Got a Reservation for a Tesla Model 3?

First production unit has been completed
https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/88384089325345178…

Full reveal will now occur on a July 28th party when first customers take delivery.
Australia won't start getting it until at least mid-2018, probably late 2018, as Musk stated it will be the case for right hand drive countries.

Based on the price of the Model S, I reckon the driveway price will be $55 - $57K, so it is competing with Audi A4 & BMW 3

Of course have to factor in approx. $12K savings in fuel & servicing over 5 years (based on 20K km/year)

Then, if Tesla do get their autonomous ride sharing network truly up & running, then cost is irrelevant as the revenue will pay it off in 12 months.

Comments

    • Find that hard to believe. Do they live in Sydney or Melbourne? They have superchargers for that…

      • You could easily rack up 20k if you had no power to start with and your meter is a long way away, needed 3 phase (which many Tesla owners would want) or had an unscrupulous electrician

      • "Sydney" is a fairly large place, with a total of 2 superchargers. Some people may be an hour or more drive from those.

  • I was thinking of putting in a reservation for my next car (currently drive a 2011 CX-9).

    I watched a few youtube cost comparison in money saved from fuel (mostly US based), so I dont know how that compares to Australian rate. But on that front (I meant, electricity cant be that much more expensive in the states, specially when the electricity cost here keeps creeping up), I conclude that I will still be miles ahead by buying a top of the range camry hybrid with the works (even better if you bought a year old car off the dealership).

    I based my calculation over 5-7 years period.

    The resale, the fuel cost, the initial purchase and the financing cost, from cost effectiveness alone, it is not justifiable just yet to get a Tesla.

    However, if you were to consider other things, i.e. technology, green energy, and whatever float your boat, then it is quite worthwhile. Afterall, it is priced just above the top of the range japanese medium sedan car. Top of the range Mazda 6 could run to mid to high $40k.

    Though I must say, the type S is a very nice car, unfortunately outside of my price range.

    • -1

      Considering $12K fuel & servicing savings over 5 years & based on Model S depreciation, I would compare the Model 3 to a $35K car.
      What $35K car does 0-100 in 5.8 seconds? (specs were leaked)
      And if Musk is to be believed, it will have a level of autonomous features that you can't get in a $250K Mercedes.

      • +3

        35K USD.

        WRX STI could be had brand new in america for that same price. 5.4 seconds 0-100 all day everyday without the potential of overheating. But again horses for courses. You asked the question, i responded with car that could go faster for the same price point, not in the same league of comfort, but definitely sportier.

        For a direct comparison, Audi A4 quattro does 0-100 in 5.8s at about the same price point as well.

        • -2

          I am basing on A$35K, not US$

        • +1

          @yoyomablue:

          But with projected 55-57k aud drive away price.

          If you were to take off the 12k savings, shouldnt we be comparing it to a 43k-45k car?

          Acceleration figures aside. If we were to base it on a 20k kms/year usage. you only need to fill in camry 20x in that year, hybrid camry does 1k kms per full tanks and fixed price servicing. I think it was like $145 - $195 per service for the first 3 years or so.

          You are probably looking at only 6k - 8k saving over 5 years, leaving alone the resale cost and however much it cost to service a tesla.

          And for me, camry hybrid acceleration and gimmicks are far more than enough for day to day drive.

          To top it off, if I were to get a year old camry, top of the range, hybrid with all the bell and whistle, I could possibly get it for between 33k - 35k.

          So a Tesla still does not warrant my money for my purpose anyway.

        • Mate, you need to drive a Tesla. It is the car that will do 0-100kmh in 5 seconds all day, not the WRX. Teslas in the real world beat everything off the line, my old man's humble S75D will beat anything that isn't using launch control every time, and it's the slowest model. They say it runs 0-100kmh in 5.4, but it will easily crack the high 4's on a full charge and wont drop out of the 5's until you are around 30% battery. It will smoke any AMG off the line for example, unless they use launch control.

          Also, a WRX STI is hardly sporty these days, it has a CVT transmission. If you have a manual, there is almost no way you are doing 0-100kmh in the 5's regularly, and when you do, you can kiss goodbye to most of your clutch.

        • @Burnertoasty: S75D now does 4.5secs 0-100

      • $35k + $12k = $47k
        How is that comparable to the $55-$57k you estimate for the Tesla Model 3?

        • Plus depreciation of around $10K

        • @yoyomablue:

          I think depn is more than that? I looked at the buyback guarantee, which I think most people will be taking.

          It is 50% for 3 years and around 42% for 5 years.

        • @cintamami: I would never go back to the manufacturer (or use a dealer). That would cost thousands in lost revenue
          Check this out - 28% loss after the equivalent of 4 years driving
          https://electrek.co/2016/09/13/tesla-model-s-value-retention…

          You have to factor depreciation in the total value of a car

        • @yoyomablue:

          You can expect greater depreciation once Tesla increase their ability to mass produce, as there will be more for sale on the used market. They are still a hot item right now with long waiting lists.

          The "mass produced" model 3 may be a completely different story 5 years from now.

  • +1

    Only if I could afford to buy a toy model.

  • Now that they can print solar panels on plastic Tesla will go bust.

    Just joking, no.

  • The more I read about tesla, the more it remains me of 1997. Investors keep propping up their share price while the company reports losses in the hundreds of millions.

    • +1

      yeah but i think tesla and spacex etc. are the best of a bad bunch

      they have b&m, they have product, they have 400,000 orders, they own capital, they own patents

      now ask yourself this… the $70 billion Uber, what do they have? how many companies are like uber?

      • All of the big companies are looking to release there new models this year, Im personally interested in the redesigned Nissan Leaf as every dealer as a free charge station.

        • no offense but i'm a long time nissan fan and have a nissan and have a very good multigenerational relationship with the nissan dealer principal… even so, there's no way even a free charge would get me to go back there on a regular basis!

        • The new Nissan Leaf does look interesting, but are Nissan going to bring it to Australia without a government subsidy?

          I agree with @tonyjzx about the dealer charging, it's not a selling point for me. I'd be more interested in being able to charge a Leaf at Tesla charging station, even if I had to pay, because Tesla is building them on highway routes.

        • @trongy:

          I'm not even all that interested in Tesla charging because I dont think I can hang around for 30-45 mins etc. etc. twiddling my thumbs.

          I'd expect MOST owners will charge overnight at home off peak.

          I will always keep a petrol car if I need to drive outside of range.

        • I can tell you categorically that the few times I needed a charge the dealer told me to piss off

        • @trongy: i hear they will, they have already missed one model and head office staff have told me the next one is definitely coming. They may change their mind or the guy might not know what he's talking about but that's what I got calling them

    • Investors knew about that with Tesla when it started up back in 2003 - investing is a gamble. Tesla had a big long vision which was to mass produce an electric car at an affordable price. Since 2013 they were making profit I read.

      There was no way it would do that straight away back in 2003 as a startup with very little experience compared to other car companies. So their strategy was build expensive luxury cars at low volume and target people who can afford luxury cars. They learnt along the way new ways to save on costs, manufacturing, fixing defects, improving software etc etc.

      They started with the Roadster, then Model S, Model X and now Model 3 and soon to be Model Y in the near future.

      Now they're at the stage where they have the resources and facilities (like the Gigafactory) to mass produce their vision - the Model 3. They have a huge supercharger network in Europe, US, parts of Asia and Australia and are expanding.

      • Since 2013 they were making profit I read.

        https://www.inverse.com/article/31597-tesla-secret-profit

        Since it went public in 2010, Tesla has not reported a single profitable year. This is despite soaring revenue, glowing reviews, and a skyrocketing stock price.

        then it goes on to say that telsa is turning a profit (model s), but are doing it secretly.

    • Musk has just announced on twitter that the first production car rolls off the line this Friday (they were waiting for final regulatory approval). He also stated the handover party for the first buyers will be July 28th & that they will reach 20K cars per month in December.
      So 1997 it is definitely not.

  • +5

    Where does everyone get money for these expensive cars? 150k for the other models is a massive amount for a car. Model 3 seem sore reasonable hut still quite expensive. Meanwhile I'll keep driving my crappy old civic. :(

    • Paul Clitheroe, financial advisor, analyst, and part time TV personality, had good advice on ABC radio this evening when someone asked him whether to keep buying new cars or stay with old ones:

      "Buy the cheapest car your ego can put up with"

      He himself stated he buys second hand cars. A guy worth millions, with investments galore and invitations to appear on TV and radio, buying 3 year old cars and loving it.

      • +1

        But that's because he is in the business of giving "smart financial advice". I don't think anyone can genuinely say they didn't know buying an expensive car is not a good move, pure financial reasons. Ofcourse there is more to it than just pure money for a lot of people, like he said, ego. I'm sure he has his little pet hobbies where he splurges his wealth on in a "bad value" kind of way.

        I know a couple of friends who bought relatively expensive cars (i.e. Audi, BMW, etc.) who know jack shit about them; they just bought it for the brand and perception. By comparison I would happily buy a far more creature comfort "lower" brand for the price of one of those brand cars.
        At least not even they think of it as an appreciating investment though ;)

        • +1

          Thousands of people every year across the country convince themselves that leasing or financing a car is a good idea, and it almost never is. The only time leasing a car is a good idea is when you need it for work, and even then only if the work (and therefore the income) can't be earned without the vehicle, and you can't afford a second hand vehicle that will so the job.

          I will probably get a bunch of down votes for this, which at least will prove my point that people think leasing is a good idea.

  • To everyone buying a Tesla as their only car. Ever thought of road trips or camping?

    I love the concept of the tesla, but absolutely hate the limitations of not being able to travel to where i want to. On the long hauls, my family cars travel 700+kms to a tank. Meaning i can do long drives without stopping and can travel on non-designated routes without charging points.

    Sure it's only a few times a year, but that's a few times a year we'll need to rent a car that's NOT ours to travel. Kind of a drag IMHO.

    • +1

      Until inductive charging becomes a thing (I believe it will over a long period of time - outlay is conceptually no different to NBN) & battery capacity increases, then you are going to need to either stop to charge or stick with a petrol car. That said, superchargers will become ubiquitous.

      • +4

        I hope they can come up with a way to recharge a car with power banks and QC3.0 or later.

      • There's a Tesla supercharger at Phillip Island in Victoria - I've seen it.

        • +1

          That would be a Destination Charger, not a Supercharger.

        • @reecho:
          What is the difference with destination charger and super charger?

        • @Hirolol: Destination Charger is AC and up to 22Kw of charging depending on what charger is installed in the vehicle. The Supercharger is DC and up to 150Kw of charging…much faster…

  • +2

    Honestly speaking, Tesla got a mountain to climb before electric become mainstream car.

    The truth is, big oil companies have huge influence in government policies. They're not gonna let electric cars ruin their multi billions petroleum industry. So unless they jump onboard or there's no more oil to dig, electric cars will never become mainstream car as the aftermath of the collapse of petroleum industry is just unthinkable! Hell, even coal mine still running to this day…

    • What specifically are they going to do about it?

      • They arent going to do anything.

        The oil companies, especially here, dont have THAT much power.

        We dont even have any refineries here!

        What are you protecting? The refinerines in SG CN MY where we get our petrol?

        • @zeomega: We have around 2 weeks supply locally. We are at the mercy of imported oil and will be for the foreseeable future..

        • We still have a few refineries in Australia, but none in NSW.

          List of oil refineries

          Bass Strait is is still producing a trickle of crude (approx 19,000 barrels a day) according to this article. That's down from a peak of 500,000 barrels per day.

        • @reecho:

          Obviously the response was targeted at "We don't even have refineries here"

  • +1

    fun fact: America had electric cars in the early 1900's

    "In 1899 and 1900, electric vehicles outsold all other types of cars. In fact, 28 per cent of all 4,192 cars produced in the US in 1900 were electric"

    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/electric-automobile-histo…

  • I have a reservation, but I don't know if I will actually buy it. Just bought a VW Passat 206TSI in January, so it will depend on when it's actually available, the final cost, and how much I like the end product when it's finalised. :)

    • How's the R-line?

      • +1

        Pretty good actually! I was looking at the A4, but I couldn't justify the price difference between the two (about $20k - $25k difference if you went for the Quattro with extra options). The Passat is AWD, slightly bigger, has enough tech (Android Auto rocks), and I think looks pretty good. It's also a bit more powerful, but maybe not quite as fuel efficient. I haven't had to service it yet, but the servicing costs, while higher than a Ford or something, are much less than an Audi or a Merc in the long run.

        FYI, I got the wagon.

  • +1

    I think the price is perfectly acceptable and on par with an A4, but the reality for me personally is that I will never spend more than $35k on a car, and indeed prefer to spend $25k on a 12 month old model.

    If FX was closer to 1:1 they would be selling like hotcakes.

  • I cant see it being less then 60k in australia - more likely to be 70-80k imo. The understand they can charge extra over here since we will be a drop in the ocean for their sales.

    • Tesla don't do price gouging - they base on exchange rates, as demonstrated by the Model S & X

      • +1

        Not that it means a damn thing, but the guy in the Tesla showroom in Martin Place told me he expects the 3 to be 50-60k locally.

        • the 3 to be 50-60k locally.

          $50k - $60k inc lct or exc lct?

        • +2

          @whooah1979:

          lct is $75k for electric car

  • have a nephew who worked for a fleet provider and he got me to test drive 5 different electric car brands.
    Drove the Tesla S P85D last and managed to give it a full blast 3 times accelerating from 50 to 120 in under 2 secs.
    Impressive road handling and the vertical screen blew me away, adjust anything like regen or any radio station in the world.
    Sure there are petrol cars in this price bracket who look flashier but for a computer nerd it is just fine.
    Sitting in the back it sounds like a grinding bearing. Pity really wanted a station wagon so the Mitsubishi is always sold out.
    Another relative placed one of the first orders for the model 3. He has now received a loan car a S60 until they can ship.
    He loves it so much he might take the P100D instead.

    • Where did the S60 loan car come from?

      • Tesla Europe
        he refuses to tell me how much he paid

        • +3

          Story doesn't add up. Tesla has over 400k orders for the Model 3. They don't just give loan cars for people waiting. People just have to wait. In Australia, realistically, you are looking at 2019 for the first models to land. I think if you order now, you might be lucky and get one in 2020.

    • Thats a big price jump? from a 3 to an S model.

  • +1

    Yes I have a reservation and was in the queue at the Tesla store like Apple fanbois when the iPhone was initially launched. at 8:00AM on Thursday, March 31 2016.

    Happy to be a Telsa Fanboi as I can only see the future being electric.

    I also am fond of this Oatmeal cartoon about Nikola Tesla.

  • Dumb question… What happens when the battery finally dies after 5-10 years? Especially since the battery is one of the most expensive parts of the car?

    • You buy a new battery. But apparently they have an 8 year warranty.

      • Ouch. I read batteries can cost as much as half the cost of the car. And batteries will die! Not to mention the battery performance would have degraded towards the end of its lifecycle. I imagine the resale value would be piddly especially when it's 7 years old with the battery warranty about to expire.

        • They expect the production costs of the batteries to go down significantly over time. Even then, it doesn't mean you have to replace your battery. It won't just stop working after 8 years. :)

        • @TailsK:
          It actually can just stop working after 8 years, or when you're near the 10 year mark. Or may even be severely degraded. It's a lithium battery afterall.

        • +1

          @TailsK:

          They expect the production costs of the batteries to go down significantly over time.

          the cost of production may go down, but about the lithium price.

          price per metric tonne.
          https://www.metalary.com/lithium-price/

          2017 $9,100.00 $9,100.00 18%
          2016 $7,475.00 $7,646.93 13%
          2015 $6,500.00 $6,802.44 22%
          2014 $5,050.00 $5,290.26 13%
          2013 $4,390.00 $4,672.44 4%
          2012 $4,220.00 $4,558.87 8%
          2011 $3,870.00 $4,268.56 -12%
          2010 $4,350.00 $4,951.53 -4%
          2009 $4,530.00 $5,238.93 2%
          2008 $4,440.00 $5,114.30 20%
          2007 $3,530.00 $4,220.61 34%
          2006 $2,320.00 $2,851.56 37%
          2005 $1,460.00 $1,851.94 -18%
          2004 $1,720.00 $2,255.92 10%
          2003 $1,550.00 $2,087.84 -3%
          2002 $1,590.00 $2,190.98 0%

          if it continues at it's current trend then in eight years the price per tonne will be around $18.9k.

        • @Cusack: With an awesome BMS. Tesla have replaced very few batteries since their inception. Degradation is minimal too.

        • -2

          @whooah1979: that's not good especially if people are relying on prices dropping. Are people buying these teslas without considering battery shelf life?

        • I read batteries can cost as much as half the cost of the car.

          The batteries are expensive, but the price is coming down. The 60kW Model S battery contains 5,376 cells. Laptop computer batteries typically contain 4-8of the same type of cell.

          Tesla is now claiming 35% battery cost reduction

          That article estimates the cost of the Model 3 battery to be US$6,875. That's the manufacturing cost for Tesla, not the retail price.

          Second hand buyers are going to have to carefully consider battery replacement cost and that will be reflected in the resale value.

          With all the R&D that's being done in battery chemistry and manufacturing at the moment, there's good reason to hope that battery prices will continue to come down over the next decade.

        • @trongy: IME laptop batteries are usually either 6 or 9 cell

          And of course battery condition makes a difference to price, just like kms on a usual car. At least on an EV you don't really worry about kms or service history as much

        • @Jackson:
          I'm a bit out of touch, but if you search for 4 cell ultrabook battery and you will find quite a few hits. Anyway, that was for comparison for anyone who is unfamiliar with the technology.

          At least on an EV you don't really worry about kms or service history as much

          True. On the other hand, if you are looking at buying a second hand car today, there's a lot of information in the market place about replacement costs for various components as well as plenty of independent mechanics you can use. With EVs there's a lot we don't know yet about reliability and service costs. The Tesla model S has an 8 year unlimited distance warranty, which will conveniently keep a lot of negative stories out of the press for some years to come.

    • The batteries won't 'die' after 5-10 years
      They will take over 25 years to 'die'

      • Experience?

        • Extrapolated based on current degradation curve

      • Not to mention that you can always just replace any dead cells, although this may not make economic sense until you have quite a few dead ones

  • I was going to preorder one about a year ago or whenever they were up for preorder but there are hardly any charger stations around in all of nsw so i got a mazda 3 astina instead.

    i am still keen to get a model 3 or s/x in a few years though.

  • -1

    And be a guinea pig for driverless cars, umm might give it a couple of years for the tech to develop properly.

    • Tesla autopilot already has a substantially better than average death rate
      It will only get better with each firmware update

  • +1

    I have a reservation for a model 3, will be selling a 2012 Holden Cruze, Have wanted to replace it for a while now but can't justify the small resale value (because they are terrible) so happy to wait a bit when we prob take delivery late 2018. I've opted for the 3 and expect to pay around 60ish with some additional features. I love the fact that it won't get hit with the luxury car tax another reason why I couldn't justify a model s.

    • +2

      Yeah no one goes from Holden Cruise to Model S. A Model S is a $150k car for the base model.

      • This is true

  • I have one on order, I was going to do it on day one but was away for work for a week, then procrastinated alot. I ended up ordering it in like September last year. So a fair way down the list, but before they made the "if you dont order soon you won't get one this decade" announcement. It sucks for the Aussies that camped out that the RHD models are way down the line, but atleast it gives them time to iron out some of the initial bugs so I'm cool with that.
    I have an Octavia RS that's just over 18 months old that I'll sell just shy of 3 years and hopefully get a chunk back towards the 3. If they offered me one today I couldn't afford it, but in 12 months I should be in a position to pull the trigger. I'm hoping the 3 won't be much more than 50k. Technically list price on my current ride was that with all the options it has, though that's not what I paid. Obviously there'll be no discounting on the teslas with their huge demand.

    • How are you finding the RS?

      • +1

        It's great! Such a brilliant all rounder. My only complaint is not always being able to get the power down if driving enthusiastically, due to not having a LSD. If it had the superb 206 tune and 4WD I think it'd probably be the perfect car. Or you could buy the Audi S3, which is essentially the same thing for 30k more. haha. The superb sportline wasn't released when I bought this or I could have strongly considered it. But I do like the lighter and slightly smaller Octavia. Though they've made the new ones ugly with the split headlights.
        If the tesla ends up being mega expensive I'll happily keep the RS.

        • No LSD? What century are we in? I though this was standard equipment these days

        • @Jackson: The RS230 does, but of course they're even harder to get and only available in pretty specific spec. As it was I was told by the dealer there would be a 9 month wait for the colour and options I wanted. You'd think if a car was that much in demand they'd order more of them. They're not THAT exclusive!

  • If I've ever got $55K to spend on a car, call 000 'cos it's not my money!

  • I only have on street parking so no unfortunately

    • Can't charge at work?

      • Don't think so….

        • Well superchargers are going to be everywhere soon, so I guess for you it will be the same as going to the petrol station

  • First time I have been excited about a car in a looong time. Not on the list but will look to get one eventually

  • Of course have to factor in approx. $12K savings in fuel & servicing over 5 years (based on 20K km/year)

    Factored the 40% electricity bill shoot?

    • Factored the 40% electricity bill shoot?

      Would it shoot up that much? If you're charging at night/off peak rates are cheaper…

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