[NSW] North West Sydney Property Market Discussion

MoonlapseVertigo on 14/01/2020 - 11:52

Hey all,

What's everyone's gut feel on property prices lately and the outlook for 2020 in north west Sydney? I'm seeing some pre-2017 prices in Kellyville/Rouse Hill/The Ponds which does not seem to be going down anytime soon. If anything properties have gone up $100k in 6 months and you will struggle to get a 2 story house for under $1.2M in these areas (a newish build, nothing to do when moving in, not a fixer upper).

Are all these buyers really borrowing $700k - $800k? Has the world gone mad?

Are you currently looking to buy a PPOR? How's the local market in your area?

Financial

Comments

  • resubaehtgnolhcs on 14/01/2020 - 11:58
    +2

    $1.2M+ seems to be in the ball park for most areas 30km+ plus from the city. Especially if you're looking for a newish 'McMansion' build like you find in Kellyville/Rouse Hill/The Ponds.

    • MoonlapseVertigo on 14/01/2020 - 12:06
      +3

      agree. I find it hard to belive that young families have $400k deposit ready to go…..im 33 years old and to get into that market i'll need to sell my left kidney on the black market….

      • Hybroid on 14/01/2020 - 12:10
        +4

        240k deposit you mean for a $1.2m house? That's not unachievable in your mid-thirties at all. Especially so if both working and saving.

        • mini2 on 14/01/2020 - 12:35
          +1

          Don't forget $54k for stamp duty plus conveyancing, moving and sundry costs…try $300k.

        • HighAndDry on 14/01/2020 - 12:48
          +4

          Yeah, with two incomes and serious commitment to buying a property, saving up $100k or so per person after ~10 years (start working early 20's) is only $10k per year. That might not be easy, but hardly impossible.

          • MoonlapseVertigo on 14/01/2020 - 13:21

            @HighAndDry: so i guess buyers are borrowing over $850k and that's considered the norm these days?

            • HighAndDry on 14/01/2020 - 13:24

              @MoonlapseVertigo: 80% LVR is standard. 90+% LVR becoming more common if people pay LMI.

              The absolute amount isn't that strange - as property prices go up, loans increase in amount too.

              • MoonlapseVertigo on 14/01/2020 - 13:25

                @HighAndDry: agree with the relativity - BUT do you think it's completely bonkers though?

                • HighAndDry on 14/01/2020 - 13:28
                  +1

                  @MoonlapseVertigo: Personally? Yeah. Looking at my mortgage stresses me out and it's a fraction of that. But it's all relative - I grew up with property prices in the $400-600k range. That's not the world we live in anymore.

                • mini2 on 14/01/2020 - 13:29

                  @MoonlapseVertigo: Today's madness is tomorrow's bargain as long as there are new entrants in this to pass the baton onto.

            • Hybroid on 14/01/2020 - 13:25
              +1

              @MoonlapseVertigo: Yea, pretty much. Mortgages generally 4-5x income salary are pretty normal. Bear in mind it's over 25-30 years. No, I don't think it's bonkers. It's how it works in most of the world for decades.

              • MoonlapseVertigo on 14/01/2020 - 13:27
                +1

                @Hybroid: when you put it at that perspective, it's not that extreme. Just my old school logic of $600k IS A BIG mortgage

                • Hybroid on 14/01/2020 - 13:33
                  +2

                  @MoonlapseVertigo: $500k really isn't much for any large scale international city. You wouldn't even get a broom cupboard in Central London.

                  • MoonlapseVertigo on 14/01/2020 - 13:34

                    @Hybroid: I also grew up with property prices in the 400-600k mark like @highanddry which is why i find it so crazy. Appears $1.2M for a family home 40 km from the CBD these days is reasonable in a major city like Sydney

                    • Hybroid on 14/01/2020 - 13:38

                      @MoonlapseVertigo: I wouldn't say 'reasonable', it's entirely subjective, but it's definitely the norm due to demand and supply.

      • mini2 on 14/01/2020 - 12:36

        LMI could be the necessary evil to get yourself across the line.

      • saintpotter on 14/01/2020 - 13:11

        an option worth considering

        • MoonlapseVertigo on 14/01/2020 - 13:19
          +2

          i forgot this is ozbargain and everyone is earning $200k+ and driving a mercedes AMG

  • elgrande on 14/01/2020 - 12:05

    Jan/Feb was about the best time to buy in that area my opinion, prices have been warming back up since then.

    Have you considered further out - i.e North Richmond?

    • MoonlapseVertigo on 14/01/2020 - 12:07
      +1

      looked at Mcgraths Hill - 600m2 block with 2 story house on Ivy avenue for $850k….reasonable. But we work in the CBD, so the metro line is where we wish to be near!

      • [Deactivated] on 14/01/2020 - 12:26
        +4

        You and everyone else. Champagne taste on a Beer budget!

        Once the metro through to the City opens in 2024 I expect prices to higher still through 2022 and 2023 just before it opens.

  • mini2 on 14/01/2020 - 12:05
    +2

    Madness driven by the Sydney Metro over there and doesn't look like it will run out of steam anytime soon. It might plateau/subside a little and that's it.

    Funnier still, there's no school catchment premium on the prices as most schools in that area are relatively new or it's new.

  • MoonlapseVertigo on 14/01/2020 - 12:08

    madness, i agree. The Ponds has some great parks and clean walkways - no premium schools…….and tiny blocks….yet prices are $1.2-$1.3M for a family home. am i missing something here?!

    • resubaehtgnolhcs on 14/01/2020 - 12:16

      Lots of industry in The Ponds/Norwest area which also makes it attractive for people as you can live near your work!

      • mini2 on 14/01/2020 - 12:19
        +1

        Or people working in the Macquarie Park/CBD and don't need to catch a Hills Bus any longer.

  • bargain-lover007 on 14/01/2020 - 12:11

    True that. Land prices in the Ponds are crazy. Recently an agent quoted around 1900-2000$ / sqm in that area. No doubt the lots are getting tinier by the day.

  • whooah1979 on 14/01/2020 - 12:16

    a 2 story house for under $1.2M in these areas (a newish build, nothing to do when moving in, not a fixer upper).

    This sounds like a reasonable price for a new 4 to 5 bedroom property in Sydney.

    • MoonlapseVertigo on 14/01/2020 - 13:23

      If you look at comparable properties and the volume that sell, i'd have to agree with you. Having said that, what's considered a "reasonable" weekly mortgage repayment now? $1k per week?

      • dcep on 14/01/2020 - 16:04
        +1

        that depends how much individual is earning

  • activ8newbs on 14/01/2020 - 12:37
    +1

    Hello,

    I'd like to share my thoughts on this. I would self-acclaim that I'm well versed in this area.

    My thoughts are that at present, we are again in an upswing. Prices are not far from all time highs atm. Best time to buy would've been 4-10 months ago when prices fell for a short period. I guess main driver for that slump was that Metro had opened and the sentiment seemed to be that prices have now already adjusted to account for this "new" metro.

    As far as going forward is concerned, i don't have a crystal ball, however I think prices will not start getting any higher in Glenwood at least, as there is a steady, and full demand. (Days on market is usually quite low for Glenwood).

    In Kellyville however, with the rise of townhouses/apartments etc, I think house prices may rise as apartment prices begin to rise. At the moment, there isn't a massive oversupply of apartments there.

    In Rouse Hill/Box Hill etc, I have no views/thoughts.

    And with Norwest (Metro Area), I have a long term view that within 20-30 years, it will blow up similar to a Silicon Valley style area (Albeit, definitely not to that level).

    I'm of the view, that you should buy what you can afford, only. But I'm also of the view that Saving isn't actually that difficult. I.e. Dual Income, no Kids, mid 30's, should comfortably be able to purchase a $1.2m if they started on the right foot. If not, maybe purchase single story when market slumps, for sub $950k. Then after 5-8 years, upsize.

    • MoonlapseVertigo on 14/01/2020 - 13:24

      agree, that's an option (i've seen some older properties in Rouse Hill for $950k)

      When do you think the market will 'slump' again? I heard it's a 7 year cycle

      • mini2 on 14/01/2020 - 13:31

        Then there are older houses in Winston Hills starting with an 8. 15 minutes drive to either Norwest, Showground Road or Castle Hill Metro stations.

        • elgrande on 14/01/2020 - 14:06

          Yes, and a TAB in the mall for added convenience

  • whooah1979 on 14/01/2020 - 12:59
    +1

    you should buy what you can afford, only.

    No Gen y will do that. It's either go for broke or keep renting.

  • OzHunterNSW on 15/01/2020 - 13:37
    +1

    The market is not going to slump… the sector must maintain the perception of worth otherwise people will come to the realisation that they have been paying 1mil for a 80k house

    • whooah1979 on 15/01/2020 - 14:00

      Try building a 2 bedroom house for $80k.

      • MoonlapseVertigo on 16/01/2020 - 14:45

        The strange this is, i can't imagine houses in Schofields ever being close to the 2 million mark….if it keeps going up where does it end?

        • mini2 on 16/01/2020 - 22:28

          It's possible. <6 months ago, there's this random knock down rebuild jobbie in Greystanes for $1.72m. Yep, Greystanes.

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