I’ll be flying to the US early March for 6 weeks. All flights, accom, and car hire booked. Flights paid, accom some paid and non refundable while others can still be cancelled without fee.
What can travel insurance do in case the US bans travel into their country.
…in case the US bans travel into their country.
I highly doubt the US would ban all travel into the country… unless you created this post from your home in Wuhan (then you should worry!)
I highly doubt the US would ban all travel into the country
I don't know if you have done any reading on this topic, but this virus is a nasty one. Key facts are
There is a reason China has locked down 50+ million people. FYI Australia has a population of ~25 million to give you some perspective.
The only way to contain/stop this virus once its out there, will be to lockdown everyone into their own homes for about 1 month, treating those that present signs during this period.
So YES, a global lockdown is on the cards.
I think your 500000 is dead wrong!!!
😀 A slip of the decimal point maybe
50,000 is 2% of 25 million
Easy done
50,000 is 2% of 25 million
You might want to check YOUR math again, think you missed a 0 on your calcs.
25 million has 6 zeros as in 25,000,000, 2% of this is 500,000.
So yes, my math was correct.
@JimmyF: Your figures would be correct assuming 100% infection rate of the whole Australian population. The 2% death rate is for those infected, not the entire population.
Living has a 100% death rate.
Living has a 100% death rate.
Sure does, death and taxes are two things everyone can count on.
correct assuming 100% infection rate of the whole Australian population
Also true, but highly likely once it is in the major cities, that at a minium half of people will be exposed to it, either way, lets say only half the population is exposed, we are still taking 250k+ people dying.
There is also the hospital system that will collapse once thousands of people start coming forward for treatment, meaning the death toll will increase as people don't receive treatment like the earlier people do. No bed = no treatment, no supply of drugs = no treatment. All increases the chance of not making it.
Is coronavirus the big one? Hard to tell, but it has the early signs of not being good, long incubation period and becoming contagious during this period, is not good.
@JimmyF: Perhaps a case study to look at was the Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918. Contributing factors to the spread included people in close contact (armies in trench warfare, wounded in hospitals, concentrations of populations fleeing conflict, large movements of people from country to country/ continent to continent).
Death toll factors, lack of anti-viral agents, lack of vaccinations, malnutrition of many due to the war, including troops.
"The global mortality rate from the 1918–1919 pandemic is not known, but an estimated 10% to 20% of those who were infected died. With about a third of the world population infected, this case-fatality ratio means 3% to 6% of the entire global population died.[2] Influenza may have killed as many as 25 million people in its first 25 weeks. Older estimates say it killed 40–50 million people,[3] while current estimates put the death toll at probably 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million." - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
So, the infection rate of one of the world's worst pandemics in modern times saw an infection rate of 33%, with a death rate of 10 to 20%.
Assuming our contagion rate was similar, 30% of 25million = an infected population of 7.5million. Current death rate of the virus is 2% of those infected -> 150000 potential fatalities.
This is assuming a level of health care no better than that available during World War 1. I don't think that is the case, hence these figures wouldn't apply in the current circumstances. Due to better communication, quarantining of entire cities and of infected individuals, the infection ate is likely to be far lower.
A more contemporary model would be the 2002-2003 SARS virus, originating again in China,(similar source food markets stocking wildlife) had a total of 774 deaths worldwide. source https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_SARS_outbreak
Current death rate of the virus is 2% of those infected -> 150000 potential fatalities.
The current death rate was based on 2000 infections and 50 people died. You really need to look past the infection rate and look at the recovery rate, which is about 80 full recovered and 50 died, so the death rate is way higher than 2% at this stage. Hence why 60+ million people have been locked down.
This is assuming a level of health care no better than that available during World War 1. I don't think that is the case,
Its better for the first 10,000 people sure. But then the system is overloaded and drugs run out, then we're really no better than during WW1.
A more contemporary model would be the 2002-2003 SARS virus
This has a lot of overlap with SARS, but the kicker is
upto 14 days incubation before symptoms occur, which during the incubation period the host is contagious unknowing spreading the virus to other hosts.
The SARS didn't have this.
@brendanm: People can travel very easily now, but there was a reason WW1 was called the Great War & the War to End Wars at the time. The world had never experienced such massive numbers of troops from all over the world, being thrown into such a huge war zone.
There was mass movements of troops from North America (USA & Canada), Australia and throughout Europe, as well as from various North African colonies and other British colonies, to the European war zone, all the way across to the old Ottoman Empire in the East. Plus you had masses of the local population fleeing the scene of conflict. The massive population shifts during this period, organised by governments (troops going to and from the battle fronts) and refugees fleeing as the conflict over ran their farms, villages, towns and cities.
There were unprecedented population movements for the time.
@DashCam AKA Rolts: Figures for refugees: https://www.bl.uk/world-war-one/articles/refugees-europe-on-…
Troop movements:Estimated 70 million military personnel were mobilised, 10 million coming from outside Europe.
Source:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I
@DashCam AKA Rolts: Hmmm, there were 1.4 billion international arrivals worldwide last year. A little more widespread than in the era of wwI
@brendanm: True, but the masses of people moving, unchecked, in close proximity, camped in squalid conditions, poor to no health care, frequently malnourished is a very different scenario to modern air/sea/land travel with quarantine and border health checks.
So this is more nasty than SARS & MERS ?
Yes but no.
SARS death rate was about 10%, this one is about 3%
However infected were only contagious once showing symptoms for SARS making it easier to control. With Corona virus the infected are contagious from day 1 even though symptoms do not occur for up to 14 days meaning its spread rapidly without people knowing.
As swimmingtoad said below, this virus has a lot of overlap with SARS, but the kicker is upto 14 days incubation before symptoms occur, which during the incubation period the host is contagious unknowing spreading the virus to other hosts.
The SARS didn't have this. So with this one you can go about your day for upto 2 weeks infecting everyone around you, who then goes on to do the same and so on.
Yes the death rate is lower, but the infection rate is way higher. Unlike SARS.
The only way to control/contain this virus spread at this stage, is to do a lockdown like China is doing, 60+ million locked down to stop the spread.
So YES, a global lockdown is on the cards.
If it ever came down to this, getting a refund on tickets would be the least of anyone's concerns.
Had quite a few Coronas last night and I think I've come down with it
I just got a refund from Expedia for my non refundable accomodation in Beijing for travel in late April.
Qantas also waived the change fee for my Beijing leg of my OWA ticket.
Can you explain what you mean by an OWA ticket. Thats a new term to me 😀
I think OWA = One World Aliiance
☑️ 🤦🏽♂️
What can travel insurance do in case the US bans travel into their country.
What does your PDS say? Not all policies are equal.
Op, you’ll be ok as long as you’re young and healthy.
https://time.com/5770924/wuhan-coronavirus-youngest-death/
Travel Insurance vs Corona Virus
A doctor would probably be more effective
As someone mentioned - if the US ever shut down all travel to the US there would be far worse problems. In Australia we would most likely be heavily infected by that time as well.
Not great timing I agree - I'm booked to go to Tokyo via HK (only a few hrs stopover but nonetheless unnerving). Once there I escape off to Scandinavia so hoping the bloody cold there has warded off any China travellers.
'Some companies like Columbus Direct, Go Insurance, InsureandGo, Tick Travel Insurance and Travel Insuranz will pay a benefit should you need to cancel your trip due to government restrictions (after a pandemic), but Allianz, Fastcover and 1Cover list pandemics and epidemics as a general exclusion.' https://au.news.yahoo.com/what-to-do-if-coronavirus-has-infe…. I bought from Tick to cover one month UAE, UK, Ireland and US in April/May. Hopefully no problems…
https://www.canstar.com.au/travel-insurance/coronavirus-trav…
Read the PDS carefully before purchase.