This is the punch line that fund managers and listed company directors would you want to fall for. The recent market rallies are defying basic fundamentals and a dangerous trap for investors to jump in to buy into this rally. The recent rally is fed off news that European infection and death rates are flattening which is indeed fantastic news but the economies and factories haven't exactly restarted which leads to my next point.
So when would this all end?
I see there are 2 realistic options happening:
Vaccine is found and the pandemic is over but unfortunately this isn't going to happen for at least 12-18 months according to Google. Vaccine takes time to go through its testing phase and then manufacturing them for the entire population. True fact is a vaccine was never successfully developed for previous coronaviruses such SARS and MERS but with the current COVID-19 situation a lot more resources and importantly funding has been put towards the vaccine.
Herd immunity method which Boris Johnson first suggested which is getting a majority of the population infected so a sufficiently high proportion of individuals are immune to the disease. If a vaccine is never developed, this is the next likely the solution to the end of the pandemic but unfortunately death toll would be lot higher.
Until either of the above situations occur, any market rallies should be taken a BIG pinch of salt as restarting the economy is not simply for governments to hit the GO button and everyone restarting their lives to pre-pandemic days. The biggest challenge for the government is how to get people back to work without further infections as there are several cases around the world where it only takes one person to infect an entire group of people see Webasto case in Germany or Hong Kong hot pot family case. Until the coronavirus is completely contained, I simply do not see the market rising due to simple economics. If the majority of the population is still in lock down who is there to produce and who is there to consume to sustain the companies? Could the government continue to bail out companies with tax payer's money for the next 12-18 months?
TLDR: Hold your cash and be careful of recent market rallies as pandemic is not over.
Ozbargain must included: MS Paint picture + poll
When would this pandemic end?