Will The Housing Market Drop with Issues Relating to Coronavirus?

With everything going on nowadays, do you guys think the average cost of a home will go down in price?

I have been keeping an eye on domain for a while, but haven't seen any change in the market in my opinion.

What do you guys think?
I am keen to hear your thoughts.

Cheers.

Poll Options

  • 37
    Already has
  • 0
    The next couple of weeks
  • 4
    Next couple of months
  • 25
    4-8 months
  • 4
    Later
  • 21
    Prices won't change

Comments

  • +1

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/sydney-s-median-...

    The surge has pushed Sydney's median house price back above $1 million.

    • +3

      But, but the internet has told me they have fallen:

      https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/property/2020/04/16/austr...

      Listen to be honest, I think it'll be a downward short term thing. Like the supposed "end of the bubble" we just had that saw 10% taken off some properties and then came back in 2019. I think the fundamentals in the market haven't changed drastically to see house prices plummet by 20% or over. It really depends on if the lockdown is going to end soon (which I think it will if we all keep being really good on the social distancing) and if the second wave of infection really takes off or is managed badly. Unemployment my go to just over 10%, and that is a large number for Australia, but I don't think it is going to hold there at all when the economy opens back up. Plus there is a lot of stimulus in the economy at the moment which is cushioning things for 2020.

      But this is not to say this is a sure thing, the world economy is in a fragile state, so the global recession might be profound and long, but Australia is a big enough economy with a small enough population to hold its own. If we can just get the service industries back open and close to operating like they did it will help a lot.

      • Lol. That article says prices have fallen by 0.06%.

        • But it is only the start!!!! lol

          The media is so alarmist either way on property prices.

  • +2

    You will need to wait for a few months. I found the real estate market in Australia very resilient.

  • +12

    Your view will probably depend on whether you are a property owner or not. We already know that Ozbargain commenters are mostly landlords so the poll will probably reflect that.

    As a property owner I would be concerned that the trend of increasing prices has now stopped and that my property might now be worth less than it was last month.

    As a property buyer I would be frustrated that prices are still higher than they were three months ago and is still not affordable.

    Plenty are relying on a high unemployment rate and migrants no longer coming to push prices down. Then again nobody is really being forced to sell so supply has also come down. Time will tell I suppose.

    • We already know that Ozbargain commenters are mostly landlords so the poll will probably reflect that.

      Do we?I would have thought most ozbargainers were renters or are they just the loudest?

  • +9

    I've seen a trend of some listed prices come down by about 20-30grand.

    Whether that translates to the final selling price remains to be seen.

    Some seller's/ REA's are still living in pre-covid la la land…

  • +3

    GFC happened in 2008, but property prices started going down in 2009~10

    Once we have 15% unemployment and the six month repayment holiday is over, then wait about 3~6 months for the last remaining funds to be used up and then see what happens.

    Proverbial will hit the fan by about Jan 2021.

    • +1

      Yes - GFC times we didn't have effective 15% unemployment, whereas this time will be very different

      GFC times decreases were on the order of 10%, before rebounding and employment was much better relatively

    • +2

      dont forget massive spikes in divorces from wfh lol

      does mean fire sales

  • +4

    https://grattan.edu.au/report/shutdown-estimating-the-covid-...

    From what I've read seems likely house prices will fall.

    Obviously this will depend on covid and restrictions being lifted.

    In my personal opinion, with average savings rates of $7000 per household inclusive of offset acc
    And rba/abs data showing 1 month buffer for 10% mortgage holders and 3 month buffer for 30% of mortgage holders.

    I think we will last as long as people can hold.

    Personally I am selling and rented close to work as I work in health care and am needed atm can do alot of good. Selling my house was always going to happen, but never imagined selling it in covid times.

    I think things are already rolling ahead. The jobkeeper and jobseeker will just kick the bucket down a tiny bit further. We already so indebted with private debt it's ridiculous.

    If you look at the stock market as a future indicator. Just take a look at our big 4 banks… They have been halved. The assumption here is defaults will be rising. Dividends across the world are being restricted by Reserve banks to keep capital buffers high.

    Not being too alarmist but even if we open tomorrow , I just don't think consumption will just spring back to pre covid levels.

    Business owners are not stupid either alot of staff will stay unemployed even afterwards.

    Alot of people are actually pointing to corporate debts as the first domino , time will tell

    In anycase I have and currently spreading cash across a few banks with adi guarantee. And sold most equities.

    V shaped recovery is incredibly unlikely in my opinion as a exporting nation we rely on China consumption either iron ore, tourism , students , net migration.

    China relies on USAs consumption. And well USA is screwed…

    It's all connected.

  • +2

    Will The Housing Market Drop with Issues Relating to Coronavirus?

    what do you think?????? seriously…..

    • -2

      Yea these surveys are so dumb.

      And the answers show the bias of the poster. 5 options saying yes, just different times when it will happen.

      And then How to vote.

      If you aren’t in the market. Pick the time when you will be.
      If you are in a house vote no

      All based on what you want to happen

      So as you say, what’s the point

  • +2

    Just remember one thing.
    Realestate.com.au like to pump out articles saying all is well…but we all know murdoch owns them as well.

  • +1

    It may drop.

    It may drop relative to the USD due to AUD inflation.

    It may rise because said inflation.

    It may rise because cost of materials increase due to global chain of supply disruption.

    It may stay the same.

  • +1

    Very mild fall in the short term. In 6 months prices will be back to where we were 1 month ago. Once international travel opens up it will boom once again. Good buying opportunity right now. Australia is constantly proving that we are the lucky country and that will only boost demand.

  • During the 08 crisis, RBA dropped rate from 7.25% to 3% and house price during 09 - 10 was still under pressure.

    Today interest rate is 0.25%, let's see where we go from here.

    Soon perhaps the bank will pay you to buy a house lulz.

    • +1

      This happened in Sweden, its called negative interest rates.

      • yes but we ain't Sweden.

  • +1

    Depends:
    If you're a tenant, you'll remain a tenant for the rest of your life if you're too risk averse.

    If you're an investor: without the element of uncertainty, achieving even the greatest financial triumph would be dull, routine, and eminently unsatisfying.

    • No need to worry about that - "investors" chasing 3% yields aren't going to be ambitious in the first place.

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