Electronics Tariffs to Make Components More Expensive in 2021

• 

  iridiumstem on 06/01/2021 - 23:23

  +1

  I am probably due for a upgrade soon ish, since it's from 2014 (with a new GPU, RX 580) and I feel like another PC wouldn't be a bad idea since there are two people in the house.

  That said, I am going to play a waiting game since there is nothing that's on my radar that I cannot play with my PC currently. Nothing makes me want to upgrade my PC now or I feel like I am missing out.

  Cyberpunk 2077 was meant to be that, but now eh.

  • 

    choosk on 06/01/2021 - 23:28

    I’m in the same boat. My i7-7700k and 1080ti are chugging along nicely with most games at medium 1440p - except for high end VR, hence why I wanted to update.

    Cyberpunk was definitely a huge factor for me too - but that can wait (bugs, fixes and future patches in the horizon)

    • 

      jackinyourbox on 07/01/2021 - 09:14

      Sesxy keanu space cowboy wait! New updates soon with FREE DLC . Can play 720p smooth butter

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  AustriaBargain on 07/01/2021 - 00:05

  I'm moving back to Mac for my design and rendering workflow soon anyway so this doesn't really affect me. What a world though, when Macs will probably end up cheaper per unit of performance than a DIY PC.

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  Gnostikos on 07/01/2021 - 02:43

  +5

  I feel like ever since the 2011 Thailand floods (which "tragically" caused Western Digital's annual profits to double), CPU, GPU and RAM manufacturers have been crying wolf and milking these sob story headlines for an entire goddamned decade at this point, just to inflate their pricing into the stratosphere as well as cover up the fact that Moore's Law is and has been dead in consumer-grade hardware for some time now and that each new generation of technology has such diminishing returns and a barely noticeable trickle of changes (not to mention that good ol' planned obsolesce chestnut) that there is very little motivation for consumers to buy tech products at the rate they used to.

  This echoes something I said last year about how now is the worst era in computing history for enthusiasts and PC users.

  Every quarter it's some familiar bullsh*t about "muh scarcity/insufficient supply" because of "unforeseen circumstances/disasters/Biblical plagues of self-replicating nano-locusts" hence "prices will remain inflated probably until the next generation of GPUs/CPUs comes out", at which point there will be another extremely-conveniently timed "flood/tariff/crypto-mining boom/smartphone-monopoly-on-supply-issue/logistical catastrophe" that will reinflate prices just as they've started to normalise.

  Seriously piss off with this sh*t.

  I'm reminded of the cliched furniture/rug/carpet/tile stores and their endless waves of "closing down sales" because of random acts of God and fire and brimstone and Sodom and Gommorrah, so get in now before we all go straight to hell, etc; except in this case the Biblical calamities facing technology OEMs only ever cause prices to increase.

  The cost of building an average gaming PC has more than doubled in Australia over the past decade for the exact same level of performance. The only category of components to remain competitive and innovative are storage products, where SSD and HDD affordability has reached record lows in terms of cost-per-GB and the performance of the fastest SSDs has been hitting the limits of their storage/bus interfaces for several generations now.

  Other than that, every release of the latest RTRX 80,000 Super Ti XT Vega Pro is met with the same response: "Oh that's nice, the launch price for the next-gen flagship card has jumped another $500 dollars compared to the last generation."

  The executives of Intel, NVidia and AMD must be laughing manically while rolling around on piles of crisp, real-time ray-traced, tessellated, VXAO, 40x SSAA money.

  • 

    WizMuncher on 07/01/2021 - 03:46

    +1

    To be fair, the 2011 Thai floods were very real - I was there, and they did do major damage to the manufacturers ability to produce. Not only the infrastructure damage, but the ability to staff them - most people were struggling to buy rice and fish sauce (or starving) and bottled water (jeez I wouldn't want to be staying in their household) - and couldn't get to work.

    Having said that, perhaps they did make out like bandits on the limited quantities they could make. I'd be more inclined to believe it is just short supply and high demand. I'm just saying, if you'd seen the widespread suffering, I'd doubt that you'd be so cynical about it (questionable?) - what because you were inconvenienced? Put out?

    Also I would disagree with your characterization of computing becoming stagnant. Sure when you upgraded from a Pentium 2 to a Pentium 4 for instance you would go from 24 hours modeling an intensive data project down to something like 2 hours. You don't really see such dramatic step changes anymore, but it doesn't mean it isn't still progressing just as fast.

    Take mobile phones for instance. Low end phones typically have A53 cores. Talking about the aforementioned Pentium 4, a single A53 will match that performance. Putting 8 x A53 cores is like cramming 8 Pentium 4's into a small handheld device that sits in the palm of your hand - the equivalent to a core 2 duo. So if you look at the larger trend - Moore's law is very much still in place. You just can't see the forest for the trees.

    • 

      Gnostikos on 07/01/2021 - 14:47

      I'm just saying, if you'd seen the widespread suffering, I'd doubt that you'd be so cynical about it (questionable?) - what because you were inconvenienced? Put out?

      Lol, I'm not disputing that there was a flood, dude.

      I'm disputing the manufacturers' bogus excuses for why HDD pricing took about 4 years to return to pre-flood levels, all the while they made record profits.

      Thailand only accounted for 25% of global HDD production in 2011, it's not like every single production facility was wiped out.

      Also I would disagree with your characterization of computing becoming stagnant. Sure when you upgraded from a Pentium 2 to a Pentium 4 for instance you would go from 24 hours modeling an intensive data project down to something like 2 hours. You don't really see such dramatic step changes anymore,

      So you would disagree but then you just agreed with me anyway?

      Moore's Law is dead when it comes to desktop computing and according to Silicon Valley itself, dead in general.

      Heck, even Nvidia's CEO said as much back in 2019.

      This article from MIT's Technology Review really puts it well, in terms of "the decline of computers as a general purpose technology":

      …Thompson worries it also signals the decline of computers as a general purpose technology. Rather than “lifting all boats,” as Moore’s Law has, by offering ever faster and cheaper chips that were universally available, advances in software and specialized architecture will now start to selectively target specific problems and business opportunities,** favoring those with sufficient money and resources.**

      Indeed, the move to chips designed for specific applications, particularly in AI, is well under way. Deep learning and other AI applications increasingly rely on graphics processing units (GPUs) adapted from gaming, which can handle parallel operations, while companies like Google, Microsoft, and Baidu are designing AI chips for their own particular needs. AI, particularly deep learning, has a huge appetite for computer power, and specialized chips can greatly speed up its performance, says Thompson.

      But the trade-off is that specialized chips are less versatile than traditional CPUs. Thompson is concerned that chips for more general computing are becoming a backwater, slowing “the overall pace of computer improvement,” as he writes in an upcoming paper, “The Decline of Computers as a General Purpose Technology.”

      At some point, says Erica Fuchs, a professor of engineering and public policy at Carnegie Mellon, those developing AI and other applications will miss the decreases in cost and increases in performance delivered by Moore’s Law. “Maybe in 10 years or 30 years—no one really knows when—you’re going to need a device with that additional computation power,” she says.

      The problem, says Fuchs, is that the successors to today’s general purpose chips are unknown and will take years of basic research and development to create. If you’re worried about what will replace Moore’s Law, she suggests, “the moment to panic is now.” There are, she says, “really smart people in AI who aren’t aware of the hardware constraints facing long-term advances in computing.” What’s more, she says, because application—specific chips are proving hugely profitable, there are few incentives to invest in new logic devices and ways of doing computing….

      …If economists are right, and much of the growth in the 1990s and early 2000s was a result of microchips—and if, as some suggest, the sluggish productivity growth that began in the mid-2000s reflects the slowdown in computational progress—then, says Thompson, “it follows you should invest enormous amounts of money to find the successor technology. We’re not doing it. And it’s a public policy failure.”

      There’s no guarantee that such investments will pay off. Quantum computing, carbon nanotube transistors, even spintronics, are enticing possibilities—but none are obvious replacements for the promise that Gordon Moore first saw in a simple integrated circuit. We need the research investments now to find out, though. Because one prediction is pretty much certain to come true: we’re always going to want more computing power.

      • 

        WizMuncher on 08/01/2021 - 09:08

        Thanks for your reply. I'm not saying you doubt the floods, I was referring to the absolute misery they caused. Just recovering from that, yes it can take years. Don't forget it is a developing country. And unfortunately the industry has adopted an all eggs in one basket approach, so even if there are other manufacturers elsewhere, they rely on components made in Thailand. Re-tooling their own plants to produce them is time consuming as you can imagine. Also a very costly capital investment that will be worthless once the Thais are back on their feet again - which is exactly what happened. Really is it any wonder that prices increased?

        Regards Moore's Law - have a squint at this graph, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law#/media/File:Moor…

        Doesn't appear that it's failing judging from that - but happy if you can prove me wrong. Often it's better to look at the data yourself, then rely on Silicon Valley pundits - yes one of them is a professor at Carnegie, but what agenda does he have? If I was reading one of his scientific papers as a peer I could judge it - but it appears to be an opinion piece.

        Also all the adjuncts to Moore's law, such as parallel processing, chips designed for AI etc. They don't detract from it, if anything it will keep the ball rolling.

  • 

    [Deactivated] on 07/01/2021 - 10:57

    Don't forgot falling oil prices will also increase costs

• 

  twadds on 07/01/2021 - 02:58

  +7

  Tariffs should only affect stock that's been imported into the US, almost all local Aus stock should come directly from China or other 3rd countries and shouldn't be affected unless manufacturers decide to start price gouging.

  We probably won't see nearly as many Amazon US deals though.

  Also possible that Joe Biden ends the trade war with China after being sworn in and tarrif's go back down.

• 

  mskeggs on 07/01/2021 - 09:14

  +3

  The tariffs in the linked story are for the USA.
  If anything, it will lower prices in Australia as American demand falls.
  Australia has a free trade agreement with China. I don’t know the tariff on imported electronics off hand, but I would be surprised if it isn’t zero.
  You can look it up here:
  https://www.dfat.gov.au/trade/agreements/in-force/chafta/off…

  • 

    RockyRaccoon on 07/01/2021 - 09:23

    +1

    LOL

    But the Internet says it will go up.

    Amazed that instead of thinking things thru like you have, if its on the internet then it must happen.

    Why not a vote option,

    Baloney its not an issue for OZ

    • 

      choosk on 07/01/2021 - 09:43

      Since the 2019 trade war between US and China escalated in 2019, the international market indeed has inflated costs (though not to the same extent it did in the US). Its impact to Australia since has been observed, so it’s not unreasonable to imagine this also will affect prices for us.

      • 

        netjock on 07/01/2021 - 09:59

        Trade war was US and China putting tariffs on each other's goods imported into their countries. Didn't impact other countries imports / exports to those countries.

        Think price inflation is due to COVID19 supply chain shock (lack of supply) and stupidity (people all rushing to buy the same thing, perfect demonstration of herd mentality). At one point toilet paper was rarer than gold. Maybe a good share trader should try to spot the next all time high for toilet paper a quick 1 week trade and double you money. Better than bitcoin investment.

      • 

        mskeggs on 07/01/2021 - 10:03

        If you agree the tariffs in the USA will increase their prices, won’t that cause fewer sales in that market? If there are more items for sale, does that support price rises?

        There are many reasons for price increases, but tariffs in the USA will absolutely not raise prices in Australia.

        • 

          choosk on 07/01/2021 - 12:24

          @mskeggs: Here's hoping! 🤞