When Do You Think The Roads Will Have A Similar Number of ICE & EV Cars?

Poll question for fun.

When do you think there will be around the same number of ICE and EV cars on the road (roughly 50/50 each)?

Poll Options

  • 13
    2030
  • 0
    2031
  • 2
    2032
  • 1
    2033
  • 0
    2034
  • 14
    2035
  • 1
    2036
  • 1
    2037
  • 3
    2038
  • 1
    2039
  • 9
    2040
  • 1
    2041
  • 48
    2042+

Comments

  • +8 votes

    In Australia? 2040-2050. In many countries, 2035. Last year electric vehicles outsold ICE cars in Norway, the average fleet age there is just over 7 years, so it's possible they'll be at 50% by the late 2020s. In Australia we'll be several years after other countries since current policies mean we'll be a dumping ground for older models.

    •  

      In 2035 (most likely) well before then, most if not all, manufacturers wont be developing any models of ICE. We'll more likely receive the older models of EV that no longer comply to stricter EV policies of EU/Scandinavian countries, so even though we have no solid policies, we have no choice but to accept EV sooner anyway.

      Once EV manufacturing becomes mainstream it'll be too expensive to run a ICE plant producing small runs of ICE alongside mainstream EV

  •  

    Probably sometime between 2037-2040.

  • +1 vote

    It will be interesting to see what OPEC does, dropping the oil price would slow the electric uptake.

    •  

      Watch one of Tony Seba's presentations on YouTube. It contains some predictions on oil pricing and production.

  •  

    after 2040s.

    There needs to be several small and large changes for it to really take off here;

    1. Incentivise the purchase of EVs.
    2. Enough time passes for a second hand market of EVs to emerge
    3. Unwinding of current trend in some state governments to place additional taxes on EV - I would argue that this is about 7+ years away in Victoria. It would probably take a change from Labor to Liberal and back to Labor given Labor has just brought this in
    4. Charging infrastructure to be readily available in homes - particular those that are rented out, given the proposition of home ownership is lowering
    5. Large proportion of EVs in fleets - rental/government etc
    6. Building up a workforce for production/servicing - retraining basically
    7. Changes to road network to allow for more autonomous driving tech to be compatible in Australia. This is the biggest issue, it really struggles on our roads apparently. And Road Authorities are slow to adapt to change, so the tech will likely lead this one to overcome the issues. but then our laws will lag
  •  

    These types of before and after pictures are pretty compelling. I reckon 10 years from now EV sales will be dominant.

    •  

      That's a pretty lame article. The difference in utility value between a horse and a car is immense, whereas the difference in utility value between an ICEV and an EV is pretty minimal. Both technologies deliver very similar practical speed, acceleration, comfort, safety, space and overall utility, with both having particular strengths and weaknesses - EV with quiet running, zero tailpipe emissions and lower service requirements and ICEV with purchase price, TCO, vast range of model choice, faster refueling and greater driving range. The ICE advantages may change in the future but this is where they stand now. Fast shifts in technology only happen when the new tech is revolutionary, not evolutionary.

  •  

    2029.

  •  

    How many cars in Australia?

    There were 19.8 million registered motor vehicles as at 31 January 2020

    In absolute and simplified terms, we are talking about either 20m cars (EVs) and 20 ICE on road, or 10M ICE (half of current ICE disappeared) and 10M EV.

    Approx 1M new cars sold each year, if we assume people can only buy EVs (1M per year) that’s 10years to get 10M on the road.

    •  

      Plus it’ll be at least 10 years before only EVs are available.

    •  

      I read yesterday that Tesla don't report their carsales in Australlia, to the FCAI. Last month 1500 Teslas were sold. When this was taken into account, this resulted in 2% of all sales.
      Until the price is way comparable to a similar Fuel vehicle, the uptake will take at least a decade (unlike Norway).

  • -2 votes

    When more sheep buy in

    •  

      More likely to be when it makes economic sense.

  • +1 vote

    I still remember being absolutely surprised by how quiet a Tesla crept up on me. I literally turned my head around because I could hear wheels, and nothing else.
    I wouldn't mind getting one in the distant future if it becomes cheaper and if the recharging stations become more widely available.

    I think that's the problem. Even if, for some miraculous reasons, ICE vehicles become completely superseded in every single possible aspects by EV, I won't replace my car until I need to.

    So I think it'd take awhile.

  •  

    Not until EV technology has increased to meet Australian driving conditions. When you can drive from QLD to Vic without having to sit for an hour at a charging station every couple of hundred KM's. For city slickers I guess it's a matter of cost and the last I heard the govt. isn't doing anything to incentivise things much. The Vic branch was even taxing EV's more IIUC. And other stuff.

  • +1 vote

    In Australia? year 3000

    • +1 vote

      So madmax was a documentary from a different time

  •  

    Pure EV or are you including various forms of hybrid here?

    I suspect hybrid is the right answer for Australia at least based on the overall current product and infrastructure available.

    That said, I don't see the various "plug in" technologies as being that viable overall. Enthusiasts will take it up, potentially along with the those who drive to work and have charging facilities available at work, but that's about where the take up will end (IMHO).

    There will likely be strong use cases for autonomous vehicles in various forms of goods handling, but this is unlikely to be approved for use on public roads any time soon.

    Further work needs to be done to develop hydrogen technologies if there is a genuine desire to move off ICE.

  • +1 vote

    July 17 2039 at 0759

    I've got a reminder set to see if I'm right.

  •  

    Cheers everyone good to hear. Just bought a RAV4 hybrid and neighbour was trying to scare me off saying I won't be able to get any petrol in 10 years so the car won't be able to run lol.

    •  

      The average age of vehicles in Aus is close to 10yo. EV sales are very much lower than ICE. In 10years the majority of our fleet will be running on dinosaur juice.

    •  

      Utter nonsense. There will be a ready supply of liquid fuels for as long as the developing world demands it, and they'll be using ICE's for decades yet.

    • +1 vote

      Anyone who says petrol won't be available in 10 years is either totally ignorant, or totally disingenuous.

      Would have been better if you'd just picked up something with a 6.7L V12.

  •  

    The EU market represents around 15% of the global auto market - substantial but not everything. There are 3 billion people living in Africa, India and South America. Nearly all of them are in no way ready to adopt EV's, and I'm sure there will be plenty of automakers ready and willing to supply them with ICE vehicles for as long as those nations infrastructure and economic development requires them, which means they'll be available to other countries such as Aus if regulations allow.

    Additionally, I estimate that greater than half of the Australian population do not have ready access to home charging. Apart from the 2.5 million people that live in apartments, even if you live in a house with a garage/carport, how many outlets are available for use, and when are they available? What if you work and live with several other adults who have their own car and also work (a common scenario - parents with adult children, sharehouses) and there are only one or two garage outlets available? Are you going to wake up in the middle of the night, move your parents or housemates charged car out of the garage then move your car in to start charging? The logistics don't seem to add up unless we install a huge amount of public charging infrastructure, which takes lots of time and money.

  •  

    Just saw this article about a Chinese ev

    •  

      Cheap city car. 170km of range and flying out the door.

      We need more cheap, short range city vehicles to get into the system for people to see the EV is perfect for city comuting.