When will EV’s actually become affordable/comparable in price to their ICE counterparts in Aus?

mroarsome on 02/03/2022 - 12:38
Last edited 02/03/2022 - 12:38

I have been waiting for a long time to get an EV but I am cheap - hence I am here on OzBargain. After travelling all over Europe in a tiny EV I said my next car in Australia will surely be an EV. That was 7 years ago and I recently settled for a hybrid RAV4. I just couldn’t justify the $70k+ for something like a Hyundai Kona which has all the same features, just a different engine compared to the ~$45k tried and true Toyota.



The traditional manufacturers really seem to be dragging their feet and most are not releasing mass produced EVs here until 2023-. Plenty are releasing premium EVs e.g. the Jaguar iPace, Audi e-tron etc. And even the big Tesla has yet to release their Model Y in Australia. But looking at the US pricing, it will still be priced in the premium range here. The very good Hyundai IONIQ 5 looks great, but very limited in availability and again a bit on the pricey side at $70k+.




So how many years away do OZBs think we are from an affordable (sub $55k) EV that is comparable to its ICE counterpart for sale in Australia from a big brand? 

I'm not talking just 1 random option, I mean when will each big brand offer an EV ute, sedan, mid-size SUV etc.

PS I am aware the very reasonably priced MG ZS EV did exist for a brief period of time, however as far as I am aware its no longer sold and as mentioned - that was one class of car.

Poll Options

  • 9
    1 - 3 years
  • 14
    3 - 5 years
  • 8
    5 - 7 years
  • 63
    7+ years
Automotive Electric Vehicle

Comments

  • [Deactivated] on 02/03/2022 - 12:44
    +2

    10 years would be my guess. I don’t see diesels and petrols being replaced anytime soon

  • Cluster on 02/03/2022 - 13:18
    +3

    I voted 5 to 7, as the major cost in an EV (the batteries) is falling in price and will continue to do so. Meanwhile ICE cars are going up in price. Recently I priced a new Hyundai i30 with the same specs as the new one I bought in 2016 for $23k drive away. It's now $29k, plus on road costs.

    Electronics get cheaper over time. Think of flat screen TVs for example. The cheapest ones ~2010 were $1k, and completely inferior to panels being sold for $300 today. EVs benefit from the economies of scale in battery production. Lithium batteries are used in so many devices today, and most home owners will want batteries for their PV set up too. There's massive opportunity for new players to enter the market and drive down costs.

    Meanwhile ICE cars are becoming ever more expensive to build. Think of your average diesel, which has gone from no emission controls to getting a DPF, and then urea injection too. Even some petrol cars now have an expensive GPF to limit emissions. And the controls are only getting tighter and more expensive to meet.

  • GG57 on 02/03/2022 - 13:31
    +4

    Doesn't it depend on supply and demand?

    • cloudy on 02/03/2022 - 13:58

      and also cost of the materials, which i think drives prices much more than s/d dyanmics

    • Euphemistic on 02/03/2022 - 17:04
      +1

      Supply and demand is part of the equation, but when manufacturers are prioritising other countries that have subsidies and forward thinking people our supply is virtually none.

      I am regularly surprised at what hybrid and EV models have been available in other markets for ages and we have almost none.

  • whitelie on 02/03/2022 - 13:40

    People can't justify the initial outlay but those already with EV's will be laughing at the running costs of ICE vehicles with petrol prices soaring now. How long does it take to come out in front comparing a $50k ICE vs $70k EV when petrol is over $2/L? 4-5 years roughly?
    I think a hybrid is the happy medium.

  • EightImmortals on 02/03/2022 - 13:44
    +1

    Going by the amount of petrol stations going up everywhere I'd say not for a while yet.

  • [Deactivated] on 02/03/2022 - 13:56

    Long live the ICE

  • Stopback on 02/03/2022 - 13:59
    +1

    When fuel hits 3.20 dollars a litre.

    And batteries become cheaper.

  • lazywombat on 02/03/2022 - 15:18
    +1

    Comparing just the purchase price is misleading - you need to compare the full costs of owning the vehicle - purchase, rego, fuel/charging, repairs etc - to get a truer comparison.

    Take fuel for instance: recharging an electric vehicle (EV) costs a couple of dollars, so if you need to do this a couple of times a week, this might be $5/week if you don't have solar and have to pay for electricity. Refuelling your car with petrol or diesel can easily cost $60-$100/week or more. EVs also have far less moving parts so should have lower maintenance costs.

    If you compare the full costs of owning the vehicle, I'm expecting electric vehicles to be price competitive or cheaper in about 3 years. The rapid shift to electric by virtually all the car manufacturers is pretty amazing. Even General Motors is expecting to stop selling ICE vehicles by 2035.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/business/gm-zero-emission…

    FYI - The MG ZS EV will be back in Australia around the middle of the year apparently. It'll be joined mid-year by another Chinese-made electric SUV from BYD which will start under $45,000
    https://thedriven.io/2022/02/22/australias-cheapest-evs-go-h…

  • resisting the urge on 02/03/2022 - 15:23

    TBH the dollar cost is one thing to evaluate, and the pollution cost another, so potentially… never!

    Example: To offset the carbon impact of a new car, before you even begin to use it, you are up for the cost of 8.8T CO2e (Carbon dioxide equivalent). This is not including any other kinds of pollution its production would generate.

    If we were already replacing 100% of all vehicles to our current vehicle 'consumption' rate of around 90M/yr globally, it would massively accelerate atmospheric decline, much faster than if we held off buying a single one, and continued driving our old ICE cars instead.

    Look online and you will find the figures; If every vehicle made today were electric, total emissions from production would be around 440M tonnes CO2e. If ICE, this would be <300M. These figures include only passenger vehicles, so no 4WDs, trucks, buses, etc.

    Unfortunately, the world is telling us its limit was reached long ago, and the cost, no matter how it is measured or achieved, too great.

    • Euphemistic on 02/03/2022 - 17:08

      Example: To offset the carbon impact of a new car, before you even begin to use it, you are up for the cost of 8.8T CO2e (Carbon dioxide equivalent). This is not including any other kinds of pollution its production would generate.

      There’s plenty of examples around showing that the carbon impact of an EV vs ICE is remarkably short. People are buying new cars, there is significantly less pollution from a new EV once they are a couple of years old.

      • resisting the urge on 10/03/2022 - 13:53

        This is true, It's a multi-billion dollar industry, the stats are funged up in every way imaginable.

        Most are shot down when a car at >8 years old, or used/kept only for enjoyment/nostalgia (think garage queens), is no longer driven as much as one bought for big money and heavy use.

        Mine, for example is only used on the weekends. If it was EV, the battery would sit there growing dendrites for 98% of it's life.

  • brad1-8tsi on 02/03/2022 - 15:28
    +1

    My daughter works for NSW Dept of Environment. In 2020 she wrote a policy paper on the lack of EV charging stations in regional areas and where they should be built. She learnt a lot about electric vehicles during her research an interviews with various relevant parties.

    Relevant to the OPs question, she told me I should delay electric vehicle purchase until 2025 /26 when prices should reach parity. I believe she was only looking at purchase price, not TCO. I could be wrong on that.

  • freefall101 on 02/03/2022 - 15:53
    +2

    Looked at petrol prices recently? It's probably already cheaper (over the life of the car).

  • Euphemistic on 02/03/2022 - 17:11

    Aussies need to keep demand high for EVs to show manufacturers that there is a market for them. Unfortunately our climate denying politicians haven’t provided any incentives to bring more budget friendly models here.

    • tonyjzx on 02/03/2022 - 22:47

      are there 'budget friendly' models out there in the wide world?

      besides the renault spring? as seen here people really arent willing to go with say a 200-250km range model at any cost.

      I would expect its more a combo of there not actually been models that are low enough, safe enough and the local companies want to keep transaction costs high

      • Euphemistic on 03/03/2022 - 07:13

        Aussies have been sold the furphy they ‘need 600km range’ because they want to travel to qld twice a month. Reality is, most cars don’t do more than 200km in a day ever.

        200km range is perfect for a commuter car while we keep our family holiday car on ICE for now.

        Can’t buy em because they reckon they can’t sell em. Conspiracy alert: or they are making big money on old ICE tech while they can, knowing we’ll want to buy another new EV when fossil fuel prices drive higher innhe near future.

        • tonyjzx on 03/03/2022 - 12:21

          this isnt a conspiracy, its just business

          a company like toyota makes $5 bn a year profit in ICE

          profitability in EV is much much lower

          and so they will make as much ICE as possible until they cant, say 2030/35

          the chinese have an advantage in that they know that sales outside of China will be tough going with ICE… no westerner wants a China ICE car… but if they can get a China EV going then for many people, that will make them get over their prejudices

          also govt is ploughing massive money for battery and EV tech

          • Euphemistic on 03/03/2022 - 13:42

            @tonyjzx: The conspiracy part is that they are deliberately delaying EVs while govt is dithering on taxing/penalising ICE drivers so that when ICE becomes less affordable everyone will jump at EV.

            Quite a few people would wait 1-2 years for an EV and keep their current ICE, but when they need to wait 5yr, he’ll buy a new ICE in the meantime.

  • pegaxs on 03/03/2022 - 07:57
    +1

    MG are still selling the ZS EV. It has been removed from their website because there is no more stock of them and whatever is at dealers is what is left of that model.

    The next model is expected to be announced soon with updated looks and features and two trim levels in the next model. There is also talk of MG releasing the MG3 as an electric hatchback, but that may be a year to more away yet.

    The unfortunate reality of cheap EV’s is that if you want one, you are going to have to go with a Chinese made car such as MG, BYD, Ora/GWM, etc. Don’t bank on the Japanese or Koreans to make a cheap EV any time soon. I’m betting that the new Toyota B4ZR8LE3ZN will come in at way over the $80k mark.

    The other thing you could do is buy 10 Tesla model 3, sell 9 of them for more than what you paid for, like all the other bell ends on Fartbook, Scumtree and Carsales, and use the profit to pay for you personal Model 3, ergo, a free Model 3.

    • tonyjzx on 03/03/2022 - 12:23

      10 cars qualifies as a dealer so good luck with that assuming you can get allocation

  • BewareOfThe Dog on 03/03/2022 - 09:20

    2- to 5 years everywhere else, but Australia will be more like 5 to 10.

  • payless69 on 03/03/2022 - 14:54

    After the next fed election imports are heading north, thank everybody for the "Comrade"

  • the Unforgiven on 03/03/2022 - 15:44

    At least 5 years after the Model T driving Libs are kicked out at the next election.
    Unless the people of Oz have another brain fart & put them back in again.
    How is your slow & broken internet going you Lib voters? You do know the Copper Age was 5300 years ago. Can you guess what burning all the coal that both the PM at one point when he was tresurer & the reserected vice PM B. Joyce did to our 3rd rock from the Sun? Yep, it fvcked it. It doesn't matter, we can all go to another planet with all the money me made from selling all that coal. At least we can all fit in the hole in the ground that was dug when we excavated all that iron ore. Or hide in the sacred caves, if they have not been blown up by BHP. We look after this planet really well, there should never be any weather event that will harm us in return

    • tonyjzx on 03/03/2022 - 16:12

      I despise the liberal party but I dont think they've done much at all here.

      I think some states now have no stamp duty for EVs + a $3k grant (which is swallowed up by a $3k car rrp price hike) + a 0.5c per km yearly EV tax.

      So I'm not sure what you want Scotty to do? Deep federal subsidises to $7,5k like the US?

      I think the onus is more on the manufactuers ie. china, to get them down to the $30k mark with a hatch or small suv that does 300km, thats it.

      • the Unforgiven on 03/03/2022 - 16:44

        The states waited for the federal to take leadership and when they never did, they went at it alone. You are right, kind of, it is the ACT which has no stamp duty and that is a territory. Victoria on the other hand actually increasd stamp duty.
        Out in the business world, it is the same. they were waiting for the Feds to show leadership and none came. Rudd had carbon credits, but the Rabbit & or Turncoat destroyed that. Them 2 destroyed the NBN, they thought they were going to lose the election so they sabotaged the NBN, but guess what, the idiot humans of Oz voted them back in so they did what they liked. They did a shoddy job & gave all the top execs payrises.
        ScumO won't do anything, as I said before, he held a lump of coal in the lower House of Reps just like Barnaby did.
        The car manufacturers won't bring their cars here. for one, it costs too much. Two, they don' have the infrastructure to 'fuel' the cars. Three, the Govt still wants to get their grubby little mits on too much money so the cars cost too much too make it feasable for the locals 'us' to be able to afford a car. Four, there are no local manufacurers to make parts so if you need a part it has to come from OS so it will take ages if not be dear; actually, it should not be that dear, if we don't use Aussie Post.
        Battery technology is better now than last year & Aussies are leading the way in that field. We also have a lot of rare earth that elec cars need, so if you have some spare cash, get in on them; I am a pensioner, so I am always poor.
        A small car would be the way to go. Just like in the 70's when Toyota bought out the Corolla, look what happenned to that car maker over the next few decades after that

  • Pentanol on 08/10/2022 - 00:10

    Have you considered byd? Quite comparable to MG depending on taste

  • Herbse on 08/10/2022 - 12:03
    +2

    Would have been a lot sooner if we didn't waste the past 10 years pushing fossils for mates

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