My prediction is that current urban rental crisis will soon be over…
Mainstream media is saying we will go to war with China within 3 yrs, and the first thing will be all the Chinese students will be outta here…
So for all those struggling to find a place and being priced out….just hang in there a little longer!!
I was asking a question. Cause you seemed to know it all. Maybe you post an essay here.
When China was boycotting Australian products. Wheat, Beef, . Guess who filled the void? It was American beef.
When China was boycotting Australian products. Wheat, Beef, . Guess who filled the void? It was American beef.
Commodities are not the same as education. Didn't realise you equate universities like a slaughter house and students are just a piece of meat.
Chinese universities will never have the same cache as western universities due to the lack of oversight. the chinese cheat and fake their way through everything. It's literally ingrained in their culture at a young age.
Universities don't really want to catch it.
I wouldn't say all western universities are in demand. Australia's highest ranked is in global top 40. Few Chinese universities are probably just outside the top 20.
Why's this sort of racist shit allowed every time and with an upvote?
China's top universities are ranked higher than all Australian universities mate. It's to funnel money out of the country.
Are people this gullible?
MSM says? LOL
How about if that was even 1% true, the US would/is buying up every piece of RE available (and some that are not even listed) and layby-ing them for the influx of troops as they race here to protect their new besties.
Dog whistling for headlines to keep us wetting the bed in fear is approaching yawn status.
Murdoch papers tell the truth for 5 mins every time Haleys Comet does a lap. He's another sold out tax-dodging billionaire crapping on our country from on high .No-one has interfered with our democracy more than Murdoch.
When it comes to agitating for conflict and inaction on climate change , he wins hands down.
About 10% of his (distorted) media content is current affairs, the rest is dross about starlets,royals,reality TV and ads.
He's a great fisherman though. I'll give him that. He has the best bait and the biggest catch.
The truth is a recession is more likely. Plenty of empty houses. Whether people can afford them or have a job at that point is anyone's guess.
And I'm 'pretty' sure any with China (which would very likely involve Russia) may just suck the guts our consumer confidence.
Well said
The human race once again falls for the bogey man gimmick.
My prediction is if users check out OPs previous comments and posts you'll probably discover what I did.
OzTrustmebro.
I don't think China likes wars as much as AUKUS.
Exactly what they have been telling the whole world! How many wars, proxy, direct has American started since WW2!?
Gotta use up the weapons stockpile. Use by date approaching.
What;s the bet the subs we get will have uranium set to expire just after arrival. Then they'll make us dispose of it, and send us another almost expired replacement.
Rinse and repeat
Albo was too busy looking at all the glitter and flags at the SHAFTUS announcement to read the small print.
Wow that’s a super cooked conspiracy theory.
@Wasabi Ninja: Yeah,nah,
The only conspiracy involved is the one we signed up for under SHAFTUS..
Right now the cookers will be planning to but up all the iodine
https://www.wired.com/story/iodine-pills-nuclear-radiation/
Better get in early though. There's a permanent short supply of Ivermectin & dunny rolls.
Small print feels is irrelevant. More like a protection racket.
The way they have been acting lately with their island militarisation, wolf w-anchor diplomacy and thuggery in both sea and land in international waters/airspace certainly tell a different picture. They are creating an atmosphere that is sending alarm bells ringing. China cannot be blamed for anything, the blame must always be the west boogeyman, or the entire regime crumbles. there always has to be an external enemy
Chinese students from China actually contribute to the Australian economy, I don't know why people still blame everything on China. Look at this article
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/03/open-borders-albo-d… to see what you should pay attention to.
You should concern about our government's decisions. Stupid and unnecessary homebuilder grants, importing useless people only good for politics, granting too many resident visas to below-average moral cultures, low on dignity, etc…
In my opinion, there is no sight slow down of rental crisis or property price hike. Building material is still high & in shortage, and skilled tradies are still in need. China opens the border and forces its students to come back where they study to finish their degrees rather than online courses. That actually adds some weight to real estate markets for sure, but hey, we have oversea students from everywhere around the world, remember?
I don't know what kind of mental gymnastics someone needs to do to somehow think it's the students who jack up property prices and not the actual owners who invest to cram 10 poor sods into a 2 bed room apartment and charge them each $120/week.
Actual economists and not sensationalist news and "vibes" has already told us the source of the housing crisis: zoning laws choke new construction in desirable areas, and force either inefficient expensive suburban spawl or the occasional high rise apartment with nothing in the middle. The RBA has 40-60% the market price of a house being made up of the zoning effect, the same is true almost globally due to the prevalence of NIMBYism and local governments choking supply by nature.
Unless you upzone the country this will always be the case.
Rental crisis is due to so many of the properties being used for short term rentals like Airbnb.
Rather than blaming ordinary people, why dont have a good government policy which does not give too much incentive to people to buy investment property.
2nd and 3rd investment property should be taxed higher. All the extra tax collection should be directed to building infrastructure at far off places so that we expand gradually and reasonably in proportion to population increase.
Ah, weve found the most recent clueless news.com subscriber
Shouldnt we already be at war/have been nuked by north korea at least 3 times now? lol
Troll post. Wokred like a charm. Good job OP.
I work for a property developer, and the major problem with the rental crisis is that not enough dwellings were built in the last few years.
Unfortunately, if we go to War with China, the rental crisis will be worse. Currently, around 30% of contractors are of Chinese background and 70% of our construction supply is from China.
During Covid, the completion of our project was delayed for 7 months because the Chinese were in a lockdown and unable to provide us with some construction materials.
Thats what happens when you get all your materials from the enemy.
Can always count on ozbargains to be an echo chamber for mainstream media's current agenda.
In a war with China we would be a bit player, as part of a US-China war over Taiwan. I don't have much insight into who would win. If it comes to that though - and if is for the purpose of defending Taiwan, I sure hope our leaders don't see it fit for us to get involved..
It would be a disaster regardless of who wins the war, not only in terms of the loss of life but to our highly leveraged economy which would suffer a simultaneous severe financial crisis. Rental crisis might be resolved, but you might lose your job, live through hyperinflation, and you or someone close to you might have to go to war. All so we can defend land that has traditionally been part of China, and which our government recognises as part of "one China". I agree with Paul Keatings approach - let them sort it out themselves.
Adorable. You think China would stop at Taiwan? thats a bit naive. Appeasement never worked.
Should Australia intervene militarily in the event of a civil war within a nuclear armed superpower? That's the more dangerous policy.
Do you know the history between China and Taiwan? Not even the USA recognise Taiwan as a country.
They are working to replace the Chinese students with Indian Students. Not complaining just saying.
Today's award for the trolliest post that ever trolled…
Conspiracy Theorist's believe that Russia play is using all the West's ammunition and weapons to clear the way for em hehe .
Why allow Chinese agents students into Australia?
Who is doing the math here?
We lose property and housing to help China consolidate their cells and peoples here in Australia to do the bidding of Chairman Xi.
Short term monetary gains are great but only China is smart enough to play the long game - bloody pollies and bureaucrats here are dumb as shit like Keating.
But for the sake of encouraging rampant capitalism and greed - the rental crisis will never be over …. I wish I had multimillion portfolios like Albanese
You guys still believe in what 'news' spouts? that's cute :)
Kinda obvious troll post by OP but some of the comments are wild
This was covered by Media Watch. As per usual, sensationalist piece with fringe experts - nothing to be worried about.
If you don’t like the rental crisis, maybe it’s time to start voting outside of the two party system. Neither political party will touch it as it is political suicide.
Sensationalist perhaps but war is possible if:
*China uses force to take Taiwan. This is unclear - but they are preparing the military capability to do it by 2027.
*The US decides to defend Taiwan militarily - Biden has repeatedly said they will. Officially there is a ambiguity in the position.
*Australia goes in with the US. Historically Australia always supports the US in wars, but in this case there's much more to lose so it's not entirely clear that the Government of the day would choose that.
The many millions more dead from a war with China will probably have a bigger impact than students leaving. Plus the hundreds of thousands who will need to vacate after being recalled to military and the subsequent drafts. Job losses and family losses will mean a lot of families will revert to extended family living arrangements where widows and widowers move back with patents for support. This is all assuming any mass destruction of infrastructure doesn't make too many residences unlivable.
If we don't have foreign students, who's gonna deliver food to the Aussie youth playing Fortnite and GTA all day and night? Yes, Yes I know they can be productive as well, I can hear them at night racing the cars they have jacked.
its all speculation, Australia relies heavily on china and cannot part ways, china will always make things much cheaper than us and will always win the manufacturing game
i can not wait for a war with china. we really do need a good world war to get rid of the stupid people in the world and get things back to basics, we been living tooo comfy and blissful for far tooo long. kids dont respect anything, adults dont give a (profanity) about others and shit just costs far tooo much. a great world war 3 is needed and if we can get aliens to invade at the same time id be happy!
war doesnt help. for all countries; population is key, the more population you have, the more tax is collected and therefore the stronger the government.
We do need something to bring Darwin's law back into effect. The only effective predator we have at the moment is the few remaining telegraph poles. Would it be that bad if we just fenced off an area for gangsters to have their wars and drag racers to roll their cars and just leave some body bags out for them?
Well we had COVID 19 but that didn’t go well enough…
No, but it went after oldies, gotta get 'em before they breed. It was supposed to be a big reason Saddam started the Kuwait war. I'm a bit sus it's why the Americans send so many of their uneducated young overseas, but they prefer their voters dopey so maybe not.
No
Cool, I will be able to score a 9sq meters UNI studio. thanks China!
If there's one thing I've learn't over the past few decades, it's that no one truely knows shit about what is going to happen. Not the experts and especially not some rando on ozbargain. People love to make educated predictions so they can pat themselves on the back on the off chance that they're right and maybe sell a few books or monetise their 'wisdom' if they are.
China already rules most countries through economics. They don't need to go war.
So wheres the bargain on meth? Or is there a new drug now that's cheaper?
It would be a big mistake to base any prediction on what mainstream media tells you.
It's called fake news for a reason.
OP is probably trolling, but I'll respond the the parts of the commentariat that agree with the post - I very much doubt the housing market will decline because Australia is a 'lifestyle superpower'. This is a desirable place to live and many wealthier people from developing countries seek to live here. If immigration from China dries up, they will be replaced by their counterparts from India, Africa, South America and the rest of East Asia. There are literally millions of people of significant financial means from these countries who would jump at the opportunity to migrate here - any paltry immigration cap set by the government will be filled, make no mistake about that.
Homes should not have been investments in the first place.
There are alot of reasons why homes increase
- Multiple Investments
- Investments from overseas and homes vacant
- Unlimited Negative gearing
- Influx of migrants, students etc
- Population growth, supply and demand
- AirBNB
And many more reasons why….. you can't pin point it on one reason
Also, it's not going to ease up, when has rent ever lowered (except for the pandemic timeline), when interest rates lowers, rent doesn't decrease but when interest rates increases, everything increases……
If China has a war, my god, it will just get worse, don't we source alot of materials from China?
Rents can go down. It's very susceptible to pressure to supply and demand. They can also decrease vs inflation. It's not uncommon to see periods of high vacancy where rentals are being offered with a weeks or months of free rent. Or landlords are forced to offer more benefits for the same rent like air con etc to attract a tenant. It's just not something the media tends to write about.
So we aren't seeing a flood of students and tourist hitting our shores . And interest rates aren't going up meaning less people building . Rents to the moon .
That doesn't make me wrong. And lets be real if it's a flood of visitors now well I guess we've had tidal waves in the past. More people are moving into a single occupancy situations (I blame Fortnite and GTA for that one). Empty nesters are retaining the family home because it's cheaper than downsizing and there's nowhere nice left to move to. Crappy transport systems and corrupt urban planning mean people won't decentralize away from CBD's. People for some reason are convinced they're entitled to the same or better suburbs and housing than their parents before they put the work in.
People for some reason are convinced they're entitled to the same or better suburbs and housing than their parents before they put the work in.
What work should be required? The housing that the previous generation lived in is unaffordable, even if you only consider 'equivalent' suburbs. A home with a yard is not affordable for a factory worker. It used to be.
@greatlamp: Every generation has had to move further out from the CBD due to population growth and the supply and demand pressure caused by that. People don't want to do that now. Because yes a home with a backyard is affordable for a factory worker if they did. Also previous generations didn't start with the home with a backyard, they worked up to it. And they didn't start with the new or renovated home. It was crappy old kitchens and bathrooms and pebble driveways with no landscaping or lawns etc.
@tonka: Young people are making compromises by living in much smaller homes and apartments. However they will not move out to the city fringes now that it means a 1.5 hour commute each way.
To say that this is young people being entitled is not fair. People need to be able to survive, a 3 hour commute is not sustainable
@greatlamp: I did it to get my home with a backyard, so did all my friends. So why shouldn't I question people wanting what I have with less effort. And yes long commutes suck, and no the backyard isn't worth it. But people expecting the pros without the cons is being entitled.
@tonka: I think your statement of "less effort" is not fair. The current generation buy townhouses and Apartments rather than homes with land. These properties will never achieve the capital gains their parents did.
Not only are they guaranteed to never be as wealthy as the previous generation, the previous generation blames them for it as if they are lazy while sitting in their $1 million dollar homes.
@greatlamp: Too many flaws in your argument. Townhouse and apartments very often achieve higher capital gain as they are often in desirable fought over areas, beach suburbs, inner city etc. And those people you are referencing, 'people with parents with property', can you think about that just for a minute, they are very likely to be wealthier than their parents especially if they're not lazy and build some of their own wealth.
And you're the one that said they should put in less effort than me when you said they shouldn't have to commute.
@tonka: The fringe of the city was not 1.5 hours away for the previous generation. The previous generation did not make the sacrifice that they ask the current generation to make. That is entitlement.
The previous generation enjoyed property price growth that has not been experienced by generations before them or generations coming after them. Instead of being grateful for their good fortune they act like they earned this wealth. That is entitlement.
Townhouses and Apartments do not achieve the capital gains of a free standing home, because it not possible to unlock additional value through subdivision. That shouldn't be up for debate.
@greatlamp: You're being a bit vague mate 'previous generation?', 'fringe of city?'. And you have no idea, you think everyone's backyards have subdivisions? But it's not up for debate so boohoo.
@tonka: A block that is originally for a single dwelling has it's value increase significantly when zoning laws allow subdivision. That isn't possible if you don't have land. This is how real estate works. If you are mentioning being in a desirable area you have missed the point, I am talking about land versus an apartment, the area is the same.
I'm happy to explain my point, but you want to contradict without bothering to understand, you jump straight to telling me I don't understand what I am talking about.
So no, I'm not interested in having a conversation with someone who just wants to make sweeping generalisations and nitpick everything I say
@greatlamp: Yet when I mention that there's plenty of real estate with huge capital gain that is not sub divisible. Your answer is 'not up for debate'.
Hate to tell you, but it's a long time since Mr average could afford to by an acreage that will have the sub division potential you speak of.
Mr average may have managed a 600 square metre block that with rezoning will get the duplex treatment. Mr average will get a 10% premium to pass it on to a builder, who will make his wages and a decent profit.
Mr Average really should have bought a 'unit' or townhouse on the Gold coast and tripled his investment instead.
If Mr Average had deeper pockets, he could also have made some very nice cash grabbing an inner city apartment, or terrace, or especially a trendy unit in a coastal suburb.
Yes if you get an acreage you can wait 15 years for a subdivision and do well. They are expensive, hard to get and there is risk involved. You may not get the rezoning you desired. But it's fairly well documented at this point that inner city and exclusive areas have been making bigger gains than the family home in the burbs. I have been assuming we're not talking about multi-million inner city houses, because you can't compare that cost to a unit.
If you are talking about previous generation being people in the forties, I guess. But nothing to resent there, they fought and endured WW2 and certainly earned their way.
@tonka: I am not talking about acerage. A 600sqm block gains a lot more than 10% when the zoning laws change to allow multi unit development into two 300sqm blocks. It isn't necessary to sell to a developer to realise this gain, every block in the suburb increases in value because subdivision is possible.
If you bought a townhouse in the 80s your home will have increased in line with average house prices. If you bought a block with a yard in the 80s your block will most likely have benefited from changing zoning laws, you will have made gains in the hundreds of thousands more than the movemen in average house prices - you bought one block and ended up with two. That is what I mean when it shouldn't be up for debate - it should be obvious.
There was no sacrifice. There was no hard work. You benefited from being born at the right time and in the right place. Of course not everyone benefited, if you live in a regional city or rural area you didn't have this opportunity.
To look down on people who were born 20 years later and say 'they don't work as hard as I did' reeks of entitlement. I don't resent the older generation, I am pointing out hypocrisy where the wealthiest people in our society justify looking down on the poor.
@greatlamp: Have you actually been through this process? I have, and am also helping family members through it right now. You don't seem to have much idea besides the face value of it. There are so many nuances of the market.
What if you buy a block that get zoned badly. What if you buy a block and they just rezone everything and create an oversupply. What if you end up in a floodzone. All these things I've seen happen.
Say you bought a block in Sydney's SW 10 years ago for 700K, now it's worth 1100K. and eligible to be rezoned and a duplexed. Big deal, so is every other block in the area, it is not scarce.
And you still need to write off the existing dwelling, pay the gazillion fees and subdivide. I got rezoned to 4 storey high density, so best case scenario right 'you beaut', and I got an extra 20% of the previous value after some tough negotiation.
I actually agree a housing block is a better investment than a unit in a like for like area, but it's gonna be at least twice the cost. But cost for cost you could do better.
I have no idea what you are going on about with this 'There was no sacrifice. There was no hard work. You benefited from being born at the right time and in the right place. Of course not everyone benefited, if you live in a regional city or rural area you didn't have this opportunity."
And again YOU are the one that told me youth shouldn't have to work as hard when you decided they shouldn't have to commute.
@tonka: I didn't say youth don't have to work hard. I don't know how you interpreted that. I said the youth don't want to travel 1.5 hours to get to work. Then I further pointed out that the previous generation didn't face a 1.5 hour commute when they were looking at buying on the city fringes.
This is all in response to your comments that I quoted
People for some reason are convinced they're entitled to the same or better suburbs and housing than their parents before they put the work in.
YOU are the one saying the youth are entitled. I am responding to your comment. I have no idea why you are saying this is my comment.
@greatlamp: "However they will not move out to the city fringes now that it means a 1.5 hour commute each way"
"the previous generation didn't face a 1.5 hour commute when they were looking at buying on the city fringes". Oh yes they damn well did. Unless you wanna call me a liar.
Do you or have you ever lived in the outer suburbs. It's been and hour and half commute from Sydney's SW for my 35 year career. Often longer. Often well over an hour just from SW to SW. It used to take me 45 mins to get to school as a kid 2.5 kms away.
So, we bought out here, made the sacrifices and got our backyards. And it's all still here and available, but it's not good enough is it? So how is that not more entitled?
@tonka: If you are trying to tell me the city fringe hasn't moved in 35 years, that doesn't make sense. If you are trying to tell me houses are not relatively more expensive than they were 35 years ago, you are misinformed. The land you live on is not still available, young people are priced out.
If prices are higher, people need to move out further. At some point it isn't feasible. You want to call young people entitled without considering how circumstances have changed, but now you get offended if I point out this view is entitlement?
I am not attacking you personally. I can't discuss what you personally did, I don't know anything about you, but it's very convenient for you because the only way for me to challenge it is to call you a liar. I am not saying you didn't work hard, I am saying if you were born 20 years later and worked just has hard, you will never achieve what you have now. If you can't recognise that then you ARE entitled and you need to have more empathy for how hard things are now. Stop looking at the young people eating $20 breakfasts every day, they aren't the ones working hard.
If you refuse to consider any other point of view I will award you the 'winner' of this conversation and move on.
@greatlamp: Yeah thanks, but I won my point a while ago when you kept shifting your position on everything besides me being wrong.
'I am not attacking you personally" but 'you ARE entitled' ?
If I was born 20 years later, and I could listen to just a little advice from someone like me. Damn right I would achieve more than I have now. Absolutely no doubt in my mind, none at all. Same for the people I grew up with.
@tonka: Exactly, you only care about winning an argument, so you are hostile and demeaning in every interaction. I'm not interested so I award you your prize:
…
I think we're about to have major tent cities in major metro areas. It's not gonna get better for at least a decade because its been getting worse for several.
If they can cut the red tape I can see low cost containers being converted fast to passable housing .
Decades of problem, it requires 100,000 new houses in 10 years. currently we're building…1300 in 5 years. however none have been finished. Containers are not utilities, schools, hospitals, shops, roads, sewers, parks, everything that goes along with housing. there's a reason housing estates don't work. Slum estates? we don't need more trailer parks.
Also if you sign up for the war effort you get to travel to new countries and stay rent free.
since when does the media say we are going to war with China in 3 years, i have never heard this
Soon it might be over according to the government.
Rates go up
More Chinese students
Replace Australians with Chinese
Nobody complains about rental crisis
Crisis over
Mission accomplished
Never feel sorry for any one in rental unless gov step up provide home to family live in tent as tax paper that (profanity) wrong family live in tents happy pay more tax
For every one person complaining about this, there is another older person out there gleefully loving the high interest rates and higher rental market.
I know because I have heard people who have said this openly, not to mention privately agreeing with it because they get to buy another property for cheap and rent it out for higher prices.
You might want to blame immigrants but you should be pointing the finger at politicians all the way from federal to local councillors who are in bed with developers and their NIMBY property owning constituents.
I know right,
People who save their pennies to generate residual income and remain financially independent = evil.
People who don't save, live it up to retire on pension = good guys.
I'm not sure why your getting neg for saying the truth . Upvoted :)
For Sydneysiders, we enjoy a huge drop in rent during the pandemic.
This is simply a market correction.
After they get their passports.
You tell us because obviously you know it all. Maybe start a forum topic and post your essay.
You know most of the ones that come here are the ones that can't get into the Chinese domestic universities right?