Will Housing Affordability Improve in Australia?

I feel I'm not alone in being really frustrated with the state of housing affordability.

For context I am late 20s with a partner, financially savvy, have a good income and savings yet home ownership is almost entirely out of reach. That is - without making drastic life changes that would significantly reduce quality of life (eg. living in a run-down shoebox or moving to undesirable areas with are significantly further from work, family, friends etc).

In other words- what I can afford now is simply not worth being drowned in debt for the next 30-years, I would rather continue to rent in shared housing or do something more radical like move internationally. For most younger people the cost of living pressures have only pushed the concept of home ownership further into the category of 'never going to happen' unless you are lucky enough to get a large inheritance or hit Tattslotto.

I would like to gauge the wider OzBargain community thoughts on WILL THE STATE OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING IMPROVE IN AUSTRALIA

Believe that as a country we need to strip incentives that make investing in housing so lucrative for already wealthy investors, find ways of increasing housing supply and fundamentally change the perception of housing as investments but as shelter.

Poll Options

  • 23
    Yes - Housing Affordability will Improve
  • 675
    No - Housing Affordability will continue to get worse
  • 62
    The situation will stay more or less the same

Comments

    • +1

      Per the other reply to you, the prices have reached a point where even a small % growth means you salary / savings will never catch up. the prices rise faster than you save (see https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/article/202…, wages aren't keeping up with price growth so the longer you try and save the worse off you are).

    • +1

      A Perth professional couple both on above average incomes, that saved hard, may have managed to save $100k in the last year to put toward their house deposit.

      The median sale price has risen > $100k in the last year, some suburbs median risen $200k - and those suburbs are > 30 minutes from the CBD - NOT inner city.

      Wages have not kept pace with housing for many decades - not even close. The only way they massage the stats to suggest they "almost" keep up is by disregarding the land and house size, by using "household" instead of individual income, and by increasing commute distances. There is no reason to think this lifetime trend is going to turn around suddenly for the current generation of 20-somethings so they'll be able to buy in their 30s or 40s.

      You're living in 2019 if you think compounding means anything in the current economy.

  • +7

    I hope so. I want to live in a clifftop mansion looking over the ocean, but they're a little out of my price range and I don't want to compromise on the location, size or quality of the property.

  • +4

    moving overseas sounds like a plan (I am currently researching options) rich people have ruined this country, and people here continue to vote for the same poiticians who the rich heavily influence

    • -2

      and how do you think rich people became rich?

      • +1

        shitting down the neck of poor ppl? (in various locations)

        • +1

          are you saying all rich people became rich by illegal or unethical means? not hard work and sacrifice?

        • ah yes getting a job is shitting down the neck of poor ppl

    • Yes every move will help the next young dude getting his landed property.

    • Where are you looking to move?

  • +3

    I say no housing affordability at its current trajectory will not improve. I am in my late 30s and was fortunate enough to get on the bandwagon in the early 2010s just before prices spiked to unreachable highs atm.

    Having said that, there are still plenty of affordable housing around. I.e. apartments in The Canterbury bankstown area in Sydney (not too far from CBD and has good amenities) however, at the moment the area is not desirable due to its demographics. But the same can be said for the innerwest 40 years ago.

    Without a way to increase supply, the price will not drop despite all the efforts on the demand side.

    Best strategy now is to rent vest if you can afford in an area that has potential but do not want to live in it yourself just yet. Buy it rent it out and rent yourself in an area that's more desirable. Think of it as a hedge.

    • +1

      at the moment the area is not desirable due to its demographics

      I can't see what would be wrong with the area's demographic; the build quality of a lot of those new apartments however…

      • +1

        as someone who owned an apartment in canterbury… correct, the build quality is a nightmare. As is the noise of canterbury road, where many of the new builds are located.

        Almost ended up in a mental institute from the 24 hr traffic, hearing every footstep and fart of my neighbours

  • +6

    I would like to see a return to the State Housing Commissions that existed in the 1950's and 1960's. These State bodies arranged for subdivisions, builders and all the necessary extras. They were rented to low income families. Unfortunately most were later sold to the tenants, and the Commissions dissolved.
    This could be done again, with low cost basic modular housing, on subdivisions in regional towns and cities. Forget about hi-rises in the cities. Encourage decentralisation for both housing and employment.
    The key is to build affordable homes using the latest mass production assembly line techniques as per the Swedish system. A massive shake-up to rid the system of excessive red tape would also be necessary.

    • -2

      Or the world could face the fact the planet is overpopulated and realise that drives every problem.
      Social bandaids can only stem the bleeding, one haemorrhage at a time, but sooner or later….

      Money has eaten our intellect

      • +4

        Well, if you want to solve the problem, you can die at 64.

        It's about productivity, but in simple terms young people contribute to the economy, old people are a drain on it. If the world is overpopulated, it's not people having kids that's the problem, it's people living too long.

        Yet people who complain about overpopulation tend to act like the problem is birth rates, as if the future won't require labour and the government and economy will be able to offer them a comfortable retirement even if the economy shrinks massively. How convenient that they're an exception to the problem of overpopulation.

        So are you going to spend your super on a flight to Dignitas mate?

        • -5

          You can have your rose coloured optimistic view if you want. Breeding less is no sacrifice, and it's meaningless and shallow to say aiming for a sustainable population level on the planet requires any forced euthanasia.(It's the goto lie from the greedy, the ignorant and other vested interests like 'demographers'. )
          More ppl can (and should) live better lives with less breeding (let alone the perverse pay to breed model) and the admission (and subsequent planning) that capitalism is eating producing more human guano than any other commodity. Productivity won't save you or anyone else, dear friend.Balance will. Capitalism's "demand for infinite growth", on a finite planet defies physics and sanity.

        • Well, if you want to solve the problem, you can die at 64.

          There is no need to kill old people. Australia's fertility rate would see our population halve in just over 1 generation - maybe 35 years - if we just stopped importing from the billions-strong pool of people desiring to immigrate here.

          There is more than enough productivity for us to take care of our "large" elderly population, and the economics would self-correct, with most of the wealth flowing from the older people to younger, where young labor was in demand.

          • @ssfps: Utter fantasy, demonstrating not even a surface understanding of macroeconomics. I'm not really interested in the role of educating you, especially not for free and because you will probably by very hostile to it. I'm not trying to be mean, I just think you would be doing yourself a favour if you did a lot more reading from diverse and authoritative sources - not forums, partisan news articles and podcasters/youtubers -before you tried posting about this stuff.

    • I agree. Such a shame that ceaseless capitalism (and corporate interests in general) demand we all get back into the offices in CBD areas. COVID should have been the springboard, many regional centres are flying and younger generations are enjoying hybrid work environments. When you are only commuting 1-2 days a week proximity doesn't matter as much. Some are even enjoying full time WFH under new contract arrangements. Our household moved regionally during COVID and haven't looked back.

  • +7

    It's impossible to say as it really depends on what the government does.

    Labor has tried in the past and been shutdown, so if they're too scared to try again we won't get anywhere. I doubt Liberals would ever be proactive enough to do shit about it.

    But it would be somewhat simple to depress prices at least in the short-medium term by doing a few simple changes. Just have to get it past all the millionaires and media who have a lot of money to spend on why changes are bad.

    • You're right. If immigration continues to be strong and negative gear continues then housing will continue to boom. The government choose for this environment. The other one is that housing comes down and finally brings the economy with it.

  • +8

    Let me consult my crystal ball.

    Those people that are hoping for a 50% crash to "buy a property cheap" are forgetting that our entire economy is based on property speculation and that if that were to happen, we'd be royally screwed in every way possible.

    It won't happen because the government can't let it happen.

    There's no reason for it to improve. Look at London, San Fran, NYC. People will just be priced out of suburbs near the city unless you get an inheritance etc.

    • With money printing and inflation there's a much greater risk of prices doubling than there is of halving.

  • +6

    Im surprised OP is adament on renting in Melbourne. It is a shit show for rents but pretty reasonable for buying.

    Not sure why anyone would rent unless your circumstances puts you there or if you have a plan.

    • +5

      Because people in their 20's cannot put a deposit together faster than the rate of increase in property values. Not sure why anyone would rent? Are you tone deaf to the situation as a whole?

      • +2

        Property prices in Melbourne have been flat or falling for the last several years. It's not uniform of course, but the median price now is similar to what is was pre-pandemic. It used to be the second most expensive capital city, it's now like 4th or 5th.

        https://reiv.com.au/market-insights/victorian-insights

        • following on @birdseye, in a declining/falling market, it's better to rent than to buy.

  • +7

    mOVE TO bALI

  • +2

    Affordable?

    That may take 2 things:

    Price go down a fair bit

    Income go up a fair bit.

    I dont believe either will happen. What will, is the price will stagnate at best. Or rise slower.

    Price cant fall too much or rise, as that would mean ww3 or somethign quite bad on a global scale.

    Best would be stagnating price/ slow increase

  • +2

    Affordability will improve but only because the definition of "housing" will be changed for the worse. Houses and apartments will get smaller and smaller for the same (inflation adjusted) price.

    • +1

      houses will get smaller and smaller

      Already have.

      What used to be a standard sized family home is now split down the middle, if not totally demolished to have a block of 4 units or a duplex on it.

      Apartments are hilariously small and even standalone houses are within a meter of their neighbours (hello, Box Hill).

      • Land area is getting smaller but I think newer houses are bigger in floor area.

  • +2

    There're many variables at play here.

    Our current situation is largely off the back of short-term immigration fluctuations.

    The situation prior was largely off the back of:
    Piss poor policy making which created an environment where investors were flooding the market due to the countless tax breaks on offer.
    International investors undertaking money laundering practices up bidding properties - this was widespread.
    Poor supply due to again, flooding the market with unskilled labour (students) requiring the market to catch up when lets be honest, half our prospective apprentices ended up on the mines as diesel mechanics on the big bucks.

    Luckily prices are moderating at the moment as the covid high and tax cuts fade away.

    To fix it they desperately need to
    1) Cap the number of investment properties one can own
    2) remove stamp duty completely for first home buyers so they can even try to compete
    3) remove negative gearing and the CGT discount from investors buying existing properties - 10 year provision for those that build new properties.

    • remove negative gearing and the CGT discount from investors buying existing properties - 10 year provision for those that build new properties.

      What about trusts and companies? They can utilise their complex cash flow structure to take advantage of the NG and CGT while mum-and-dad couldn't.

  • +1

    What are your monthly income /spending / saving numbers .(I mean we need to know you're not bowing $150 week on coffee, go out 3 times on the weekend,have $60K of 'optional' electronic items,phones,appliances etc).

    There's a lot of ppl riding on the back of the battler pack mule these days and they don't behave like battlers, or appear to be contracting lifestyles as per previous generations.
    Although I do certainly agree the incentive should be on housing provision, over ease of investment. Big time.

  • -1

    living in a run-down shoebox or moving to undesirable areas with are significantly further from work

    It's tough to be so far away from the local hipster cafe serving smashed avo on toast

    • -1

      Was waiting for this boomer comment

      • Median house price of Melbourne is $1.11 M. That means 50% of houses are below this value.

        Not everyone can afford to live in a 4BR house in Toorak or Camberwell. Sometimes you just have to move further out OR sacrifice and downsize to a 1BR unit.

        House is affordable. It just depends on what you are willing to give up for it.

        • How nice that 30 years ago nobody had to make the sacrifice to the same magnitude now called upon young people as a requirement to avoid being labelled irresponsible or a hipster - and for no good reason other than economic shenanigans perpetuated by a small elite and which generally only the older population benefits from.

    • +2

      You can go to semi-rural locations and they're still serving avo on toast. Keep in mind, life is generally better in these areas, there is just less employment.

      • Just don’t let that secret out

      • there is just less employment.

        I've lived regional and semi-rural. For tradies it can be great, for most professionals it means being on the dole, or having an unsustainable commute.

        There is a reason it's cheap out there!

    • +2

      Sigh. Yeah that is not the problem here.

  • +2

    I guess its been 3 hours since we had one of these threads

    Try https://www.reddit.com/r/Vent/

  • +6

    Looks like you'd rather have a whinge on OzBargain than put in the time and energy into buying property.

    For context I am late 20s with a partner, financially savvy, have a good income and savings

    If this is true, you can absolutely buy something.

  • +1

    Taxation accounts for around 1/2 the cost of building a new home in most states. If the kleptocrats gave us a break then housing 'should' reduce in cost, The other problem is the shift from houses as a place to live as opposed to a money-making exercise.

    • +3

      Not saying I don’t want to reduce taxes. But I bet if taxation was reduced developers will just pocket the difference. The problem is supply and demand. Price won’t drop while demand is high and supply is low. If the government takes less tax, the sellers and developers will just pocket more profits.

      • +2

        Yes I suspect you are probably right on that score.
        Uncontrolled immigration is shaping up to be an important election issue in most western countries ATM.

    • +1

      It only became popular with the masses to 'invest' in property because it worked more reliably for gain than other forms, such as bank deposits. So a fix to the rate of property value increase (more supply, less demand) would impact on the level of 'investing'. Removing taxes (or offsetting) would also help with releasing suburban properties with low occupancy.

  • +14

    To understand housing in Australia, you need to understand the culture of this country.

    In Germany, they allows not only their citizens but foreign citizens (not just eu members) to study for free. If you tell the Germans, they should make an industry out of their uni, they would laugh at your face.

    If you go to the Dutch and tells them to allow pokies machine in every suburbs because it provides some jobs, they would laugh at your face.

    Do you see a pattern here?? Aus culture is to look for easy ways to generate some economic activities (laid-back country), housing is just part of that deal.

    People want gov to stop speculative investors, but investors account for 1/3 of new home loans. If the gov happy to use education and gambling as an industry because it provides some jobs, you think they will stop this?

    Truth is, gov secretly wants house prices to go up. Because it provides a lot of economic activities when investors speculate. Think about how many people are involved in a property transaction, you have lender, broker, conveyancer, seller's agent, buyer's agent, property inspector and so on.

    If you live in Aus, you just have to accept that aus is an inept country that uses BS industries to support its shallow economy. Without housing, population growth, or international students, how else would Aus grow its economy? You think we going to invent the next Nvidia or Ozempic?

    • +2

      This is so true and I agree, the culture here does have a big play. Education and gambling used heavily to make a profit out of…2 very different sides of a spectrum in a way

      • That way they can take some coin our of those that are both good at maths, and bad at maths.

    • +2

      You say that like nothing has been invented here. Wifi, Cochlear implant (share price currently $287 - no, not as high as Nvidia but how many people has it helped?), Black Box flight recorder, cervical cancer vaccine. And that's just the few that come to mind.

      • +2

        I loved it when aussie try to defend the country by wheeling out the list of invention and it's the same list every time with the latest invention being over 20 yrs old. The world moves fast, look at how much it has changes since wifi was invented.

        The Australia in 1980s and early 1990s, was a much better run country than now. Government back then understood the value of investing in the country, they invested in education and science, which is what leads to wifi and cochlear. CSIRO has been gutted, uni funding dried up. Now, we give more tax break to property 'investors' than we do to the CSIRO.

      • +1

        Australia will continue to invent things, Universities are very large so it is inevitable. It's not the appropriate way to measure the issue though.

        The problem is there is no industry in Australia. Anything invented here will move offshore the same way that STEM graduates much move offshore to work in industry. At least we are better off than New Zealand.

    • we did create atlassian lol

  • +3

    If Australia had a better standard of living when there were fewer (say 14 million) people, then how would we get back to that number?
    HINT: Apart from the population number, more things then were made domestically.

    • +1

      The standard of living is higher than ever before.

      The best metric is the size of your tv vs 20 years ago.

      • This seems wrong - my TV is the same size as 20 years ago, but my land is half the size.

        • You have it exactly right. But there are many people would appear to be happy to live in a box with fast internet rather than have a family and a back garden. Society has changed, but not necessarily improved.

        • Wow you really do love a whinge don't you.

          my TV is the same size as 20 years ago

          That is on you for sticking with a shitty tv.

          but my land is half the size

          That is on you for staying where it is more desirable to stay than 20 years ago.

          • @cadwalader: My post was mostly in jest, as is the commenter I replied to.

            You OTOH seem to just be whinging. No need to be so fragile.

            • @ssfps: Good to know that you finally understand that there is nothing about house prices for you to whinge about.

      • I feel sorry for you if that is your chosen metric for life.

  • +3

    I think it will only continue to get worse if it remains the same as it is now. I am seeing a lot of similar feelings from the younger generation and I agree, it definitely is a challenge and I can see why a large portion will choose to 'give up' on it I suppose, the process there will require drastic changes to life and then when you finally get that mortgage, that is another x years of slogging away. I am not talking about even people who purchase 'unecessary' luxuries, but maybe some will have to give up a lot. For those older generation who say the younger are lazy, can't concentrate etc I disagree. It is not that the younger generation is lazy it is just becoming very difficult to the point they question is it really worth sacrificing that much for years that they can no longer enjoy anything for XX years. Also it is evident that in comparison to the wage growth vs. house prices, there is a much LARGER gap compared to the previous generations so this is where it gets difficult. The income and savings growth will unlikely be on the same speed compared to inflation.

    It is a lot more challenging for people if they do not have support from family (whether financial gifts, property gift, opportunity to live at home for longer) etc and I think it is much more challenging if you are purchasing single compared to a combined income. I also think one of the reasons why I hear people just not deciding to have kids, or or really thinking about it first.

    I do think, if you plan to stay somewhere long term, it may be good to get your foot in the door, a home within your budget and that meets a decent amount of your preferences. Look at the pros and cons between living in a freestanding house further away, the outer suburbs and if you really want something closer maybe you will have to consider something much smaller. Also for those who just say rural, this is not easy as it sounds. I would love to but I am still planning how to live rurally, (especially with the job part), however there are less jobs, services or facilities in rural. Also it doesn't help when Australia decides to close down major manufacturers or business' that were rurally located and now the labour/production is offshore. A lot of things are now produced or manufacturered offshore, which is sad, as those jobs are now gone for the local people.

    For the OP, since you said you had a good income and a partner. I would assess your finances, spendings and budget. I do think it is much more possible with a dual income. Along with any FHB schemes you can get.

  • +11

    Houses have been expensive in Australia for a very long time. In the 1980s my parents complained. In the 2010s I complained. People are complaining now.

    There are more people here than ever before and we can't all live within 10km of the CBD. Something has to give.

    If you are waiting for affordable AND desirable housing in Australia, you will never buy a house.

    • -2

      I think the key thing is "waiting"

      Don't wait… everyone else is waiting.

      Work towards it.

      Your career is capped at $90K? Go back to uni, get into engineering, computer science, law or banking etc. It'll be hard but it's better pay

      You don't have much savings? Actively cut back spending. Cook a goddamn meal. Do it now.

      Waiting to buy a 600m2 lot near your parents place in Coogee? Brother it's not happening. Go research more affordable suburbs or look into apartments and make the sacrifice.

      Is the housing market worse than its ever been? Yes. All the numbers say so. But 95% of everyone trying to buy is also "waiting". Because waiting is easy. You can do something productive rather than hope that Libs or Labor will help (pro tip: nearly every high-ranking politician has investment property. They won't want to help you).

      • why does everyone give absurd suburb examples.

        you need $1.5-2m for a house in campsie

      • Work towards it.

        The vast majority of people today could not afford their homes if they were buying them today. People on well above average professional salaries are worse off in many cases than people on low-income working class jobs who bought 20 years ago.
        So it's pretty insulting to young people to suggest they "work towards it" when you haven't had to "work towards it" to the same extent.

        Don't wait… everyone else is waiting.

        Plenty aren't waiting. The average time on market for properties in many parts is at a historic all time low, including some rural areas. In my city the average days on market has dropped from ~12 to ~10 recently in the last year or less, and in the sub-600k bracket it's more like ~5 days iirc.

  • -7

    Housing is already affordable and generally better than the type of amenities 6X average male income in 1980s.

    What will be more and more unaffordable is detached low density housing near areas that convey status and has the best amenities.

    If we want more supply nearer to the big cities, zoning and height restrictions will need to change.

    • +4

      What amenities? New houses in Sydney used to be near train stations. Those days are gone.

      • -3

        Entertainment, music festivals, plays, concerts, dance etc. Fine dining, other food options, micro breweries, gastro pubs etc. Healthcare technology, specialists etc. Sports, rock climbing gyms, sailing, spinning, yoga, pilates etc. Perceived education quality houses near higher ranked schools are more expensive etc. Ease of international travel like number of connections and flight frequency etc.

        • +3

          You said better housing and amenities than 6x average male income in 1980s. So a stay at home wife, detached house near a train station and a 9-5 job after leaving school at year 10 is worse than sport? Pubs, music and sport have been around forever. Just because they use fancier words doesn’t mean they’re different.

          • @Emerald Owl: If you want a stay at home wife, detached housing <30 mins from the CBD and 9-5 job after leaving school at year 10, go take up a trade and move to Perth. Just like they did in 1980.

            Entertainment, music festivals, plays, concerts, dance etc. Fine dining, other food options, micro breweries, gastro pubs etc. Healthcare technology, specialists etc. Sports, rock climbing gyms, sailing, spinning, yoga, pilates etc. are not like what they were in the 1980s. If you think they are, you can just go to Perth. Just because you don't recognize the amenities in Sydney and Perth as different, doesn't mean others don't.

            • @cadwalader: Tradies are smelly tho

            • @cadwalader: I spend my money on housing and time on commuting so am not into sailing, which has been around far before the 1980s.

              • @Emerald Owl: But sailing is way more accessible now in Sydney and Perth today than it was in 1980s.

                I spend my money on housing and time on commuting so am not into sailing

                If you lived in Perth you'd spend a lot less on housing and time on commuting so you could get into sailing.

            • @cadwalader:

              go take up a trade and move to Perth. Just like they did in 1980.

              lmao, good luck.

        • "Give me a 100sqm shoebox apartment that's build so crap you can't live in it around pubs music and sport for $1 mill over a 600sqm home within walking distance to a train station and shops/cafes anyday"

          Said no one ever

          • -2

            @Drakesy: No matter how many strawmen you make up. The fact is that people rather rent nearer to Sydney's entertainment, music festivals, plays, concerts, dance etc, fine dining, other food options, micro breweries, gastro pubs etc, healthcare technology, specialists etc. sports, rock climbing gyms, sailing, spinning, yoga, pilates etc, perceived education quality than own a house at 1980 price to single male income ratios near to Perth's entertainment, music festivals, plays, concerts, dance etc, fine dining, other food options, micro breweries, gastro pubs etc, healthcare technology, specialists etc. sports, rock climbing gyms, sailing, spinning, yoga, pilates etc, perceived education quality.

            • @cadwalader: My whole life, family, employment, friends, etc is in Sydney. Expecting people to move to the other side of the continent is absurd and a strawman.

              • @Emerald Owl:

                My whole life, family, friends, etc is in Sydney

                Do they help you spend less money on housing and time on commuting so you can get into sailing?

                Not sure you know what a strawman is. 50% of Australians have their parents born overseas. Its the Australian way to move across vast distances in search of something they want. Do you want cheaper housing? Do you prefer to pay more for housing in Sydney or do you prefer to pay less for housing in Perth?

                • @cadwalader: My parents are not born overseas. It’s not my way. My salary would be way lower in Perth. Perth is the most isolated city in the world.

                  • @Emerald Owl:

                    My parents are not born overseas. It’s not my way

                    Time to get with the way, or pay the price to stay stuck. Either way up to you.

                    My salary would be way lower in Perth.

                    How much lower. How much would your housing cost and travel time be though?

                    Perth is the most isolated city in the world

                    Still way more travel connections than Sydney in 1980s. Way cheaper relative to income too.

    • +5

      Housing is already affordable and generally better than the type of amenities 6X average male income in 1980s.

      Lol Wut

      • -2

        In 1980 average incomes for employed males were about 13k Sydney house prices was about 76k, today's average male income is around 103k so properties would be about 600k in today's prices for what lifestyle you should get in Sydney in 1980. There are a good number of houses <600k 30 mins from Perth CBD if people wanted to go back to the 1980s. Perth today still has better amenities than Sydney in 1980.

        https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/6302.0S…

        https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/labour/earnings-and-workin…

        If people think they're too good for Perth, 40 mins from Melbourne CBD is still an option for <600k houses.

        • +5

          today's average male income is around 103k so properties would be about 600k in today's prices

          Except they're not, they're $1.2million?

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