A 'No Lose Gamble' (Betting)

gooddealmate on 18/06/2015 - 19:31
Last edited 18/06/2015 - 19:31

I was going through the odds for various scenarios for Stoke City FC's next season in the EPL and came across this.

If Stoke City finish in the top half of the table. Ladbrokes pay 2.63

If Stoke City finish in the bottom half of the table Bet 365 pay 1.83

So bearing this in mind, if I were to invest $1000 and weighted the bet in favour of the most likely (top 10) finish, it's possible to get a healthy return on either outcome.

$425 x 2.63 = $1117.75

and

$575 x 1.83 = $1052.25

Sure beats the banks. You could weight the stake more evenly if you're less confident than me. Eg. $410 = $1078.30 & $590 = $1079.70

Just thought I'd share this for any betting enthusiasts here. Don't forget your welcome bonuses if applicable too.

Financial

closed Comments

  • shaybisc on 18/06/2015 - 19:43
    +3

    Just make sure both bookies are going to let you on for the amounts and prices in your calculation.

    • gooddealmate on 18/06/2015 - 19:45

      Good point, also I would suggest placing the Ladbrokes bet first as they are the standalone bookie offering the best odds for finishing top 10.

      Betfair are also the same price as Bet365 for bottom 10.

  • tomclancy on 18/06/2015 - 20:17
    +4

    Absolutely you are correct. It's known as sports arbitrage. There are heaps of examples of odds which are profitable against each other and plenty of services that find these opportunities for you automatically.

    Check out this site for a good explanation and beginners guide: www.sportsarbitrageaustralia.com.au

    For more detailed discussion and advanced strategies (mostly European) check out arbusers.com

    • shaybisc on 19/06/2015 - 09:46

      Where do these arbers bet? If you show any signs of winning consistently, or even if you aren't losing quickly enough, the Australian based corporate bookies will close your account.

      Pinnacle may be an exception but don't you need at least 2 different bookies to arb, like the Stoke example above?

      • tomclancy on 19/06/2015 - 10:44
        +1

        Bookies don't close accounts because of consistent winnings or because you aren't losing quick enough. That's a myth. Their goal is to identify and shut down professional punters (be it arbers, syndicates or others) and some of these professionals purposely lose so they need a different way of analysing bets. Plus they might shut down genuine lucky regular punters which in the long run their luck runs out. So instead bookies analyse the lines you bet on and the consequent move in lines after you place your bets - it's a much more reliable way of identifying professionals.

        Yes you need 2 different bookies to arb (well technically if the lines move fast enough Pinnacle will let you place opposing bets - but that's not arbitrage). There are a few other sharp bookies out there, mostly Asian (SBObet, 188bet and clones) which you can arb for your whole life without limitations but it's very difficult to find arbs across two sharps, for many reasons. So it does come down to the soft bookies being one leg of your arbs which will, in time, close your account permanently.

        So yes sports arbitrage in the plain vanilla sense is a short-life span investment. 1-2 months usually.

        • shaybisc on 19/06/2015 - 10:57

          I see.

        • hungryduke on 22/06/2015 - 11:10

          While they don't close accounts very quickly, they will limit the amount you can bet to abysmally small amounts after a while if they believe you are a "non genuine" customer (ie a winner).

          I bet to make a little money on the side, I don't bet huge amounts and I'd say 50% of the large bookmakers that advertise or are well known in Aus have limited my bets to such small levels I don't bother with them any more. I wouldn't say it is a myth at all.

        • tomclancy on 22/06/2015 - 11:42

          @micase: Are you arbing or betting? Big difference. Have you ever bet on the 2nd division Hungarian Women's handball team to win by more than 7 points?

          Arbers accounts are regularly closed (not just limited) after their first bet - winning or losing. 15 years ago bookies would limit based solely on 'winning' or 'losing' players but the game has changed and bookies are smarter now. Nowadays whether you win or lose has nothing to do with your limitations coming or account closures.

  • Heizenberg on 18/06/2015 - 20:54

    normally you have to be fairly quick with arbitrage bets as the odds adjust quickly.

    whats the max amount they would let you bet on this?

  • lilkid28 on 18/06/2015 - 21:06

    Dropped to 2.5 already

  • crono36 on 18/06/2015 - 21:26

    For anybody that does not want to wait about a year for the EPL results, the US open golf has a similar risk free profit.

    Crownbet - https://crownbet.com.au/sports/golf/majors/us-open/makemiss-…

    William Hill - https://www.williamhill.com.au/golf/12385574/d/to-make-the-c…

    To make the cut (Crownbet)

    John Senden - $2.25

    Geoff Ogilvy - $2.25

    To not make the cut (William Hill)

    John Senden - $1.87

    Geoff Ogilvy - $1.87

    Quick calculations with $1000, John Senden to make the cut ($455 @ $2.25 = $1023.75) and not to make the cut ($545 @ 1.87 = $1019.15)

    *Please be aware that each betting company might have different rules regarding disqualifications and withdrawals for golf betting. So please check them or someone advise.

    • shortgum on 18/06/2015 - 21:52

      how do you find arbs with the bookies that based only in australia? do you go through them all or subscription service?

    • spychiatrist on 18/06/2015 - 23:44

      sorry I don't get it. So all that hard work for $4 profit???

      • Heizenberg on 19/06/2015 - 01:22

        nah its $23.75, or $19.15 depending on the result.

        • spychiatrist on 19/06/2015 - 11:07

          Ah yes, brain fart moment

  • mskeggs on 18/06/2015 - 21:30
    +3

    Remember there are circumstances (scratching, disqualifications etc.) where neither option might payout. Understand what happens in those circumstances if you are placing large wagers.

  • shaybisc on 19/06/2015 - 10:30

    Just gave myself a brief education on the subject of sports arbitrage alert services. They will scan heaps of bookies looking for arbitrages and do everything but place the bet. Holy cow they are expensive- typically $150- $200 a month.

    http://sportsarbitrageguide.com/blog/components/alerts/

    • tomclancy on 19/06/2015 - 10:48

      I did sports arbitrage a few years ago and was making $200-$300 every night. The alerts service is easily worth the money.

      • strikerzebra on 19/06/2015 - 11:01

        Then why'd you stop if you were making close to $100k a year

        • tomclancy on 19/06/2015 - 11:43

          LOL I wish I was still going! But the reality is soft bookies close your account as soon as they catch you. Bet365 are among the best at finding arbers and it's reported to have closed many accounts after just one bet. Once your betting account is closed they let you withdraw your balance and then tell you to never come back. After you've been banned (for life, I might add) from betting at all the online bookies then there is no more arbing left to do. It takes 1-2 months to be banned from all Australian bookies.

          There are other ways to extend arbing beyond 1-2 months, like using overseas bookmakers, but for me I was happy with my little profit and moved on in life.

        • strikerzebra on 19/06/2015 - 12:18

          @PBG:

          Haha wow, so all the bookies communicate with each other to work out the arbitrages

        • tomclancy on 19/06/2015 - 12:54

          @strikerzebra: Well yes, or they pay a service $150/month to do it for them automatically. It's cheaper :)

        • shortgum on 19/06/2015 - 14:17

          @PBG: lifespan can be longer. at least to me. i bet with smaller size bet now. then only bet with arbable promo. so far not yet restricted with sportbet, unibet, crownbet..i intent ony to make about $40-80 a week. doing new way about 9months now

        • tomclancy on 19/06/2015 - 15:05

          @leehungfei: Nice work. It feels good to be thieving from the thieves

      • bigstim179 on 25/08/2015 - 06:24

        @PBG

        What sort of things were you betting on to make $200-$300 a night? Were you sticking to major sports like NRL, AFL, NBA etc or were you betting on any arb that came up (eg, Iran 3rd division womens hurling)

        • tomclancy on 25/08/2015 - 07:39

          I was betting on all and sundry. Whatever I was being shown by betonvalue.

          Majority was 1st league soccer, baseball, NBA, or high level tennis. But yeah sure there were a few Iranian hurling games too.

          Everyone has a different view about limits coming. What I've read and believe is that limits come based on the movement in lines after you bet, plus iesnare, so trying to take small% arbs of MLB might keep you alive longer but your total profit will be less.

          In my opinion, take the high % arbs and in the words of the great Nikos "take everything off the table before they catch you"

        • bigstim179 on 25/08/2015 - 08:08

          @PBG:

          Yeah, the different views about limits and what approach is best is interesting.

          I too agree with what you've said elsewhere where people have a false view that the trigger is winning accounts. From my experience, it can't be as I've had losing accounts limited too. It has to ultimately come back to the timing of a persons bets prior to the shift in markets. I personally think that betting big on arbs on non major sports is a big trigger to getting restricted as well. I don't beleive the iesnare thing too much, not for aussie bookies anyway, I've found very few seem to use it.

          How long did you last arbing? From the sounds of the sports you were betting on you were arbing oustide of the footy season in aus (AFL, NRL, Super15). My personal experience is that betting close to the start of these matches is the best way to arb. Aus bookmakers prefer aus sports. At one current bookie I'm still with I'm limited to about $50 bets if I try and bet before game day. If I bet within the last couple of hours of the game, I can still bet reasonable amounts (in the thousands).

          It really depends on what approach you want to use. I think betting on everything is a good way to make some quick short term cash. I don't know how much you made from arbing, but if taking your upper limimts of your figures of $200-$400 per day for 1-2 months, then it's definitely possible to make a lot more than that by using a different approach. I've been arbing for a year now, and am still making good money. It's definitely harder than it was when I first signed up to bookies, but still worthwhile.

          Just comes back to what approach you want. Mamimise profit vs time spent, or just maximise profit. If you work it back to an hourly rate, what one arber might be prepared to earn may not be worthwhile for another.

        • tomclancy on 25/08/2015 - 11:47

          @bigstim179:

          I arbed for 2 months before all limits were realised. Although the second month was a lot less productive than the first. Yes it was the off-season for the Aussie footy season.

          At one current bookie I'm still with I'm limited to about $50 bets if I try and bet before game day. If I bet within the last couple of hours of the game, I can still bet reasonable amounts (in the thousands).

          Interesting, I must open my accounts and check my limits before some NRL matches and see how I'm affected.

          I don't know how much you made from arbing, but if taking your upper limimts of your figures of $200-$400 per day for 1-2 months…

          Yep, about that. Pretty simple calculation. Well actually probably in the middle of the range on average, $300 x 60 days.

          …then it's definitely possible to make a lot more than that by using a different approach. I've been arbing for a year now, and am still making good money.

          Wow, that's great. You've done well. For me it doesn't matter anymore because I'm already kicked out of all the clubs, but would you care to share your strategy to other OzBargainers? Is it as simple as betting major Aussie sports hours before kick-off? What sort of limits do you get with Pinnacle on these sports - surely not $10k+ like with NBA/MLB/NFL etc. I understand if you want to keep your strategy under wraps - it's what sets you apart in arbing and is your edge.

          am still making good money

          Can you divulge what an average daily/weekly result might be for you now that you are seeing limits?

          Just comes back to what approach you want. Mamimise profit vs time spent, or just maximise profit. If you work it back to an hourly rate, what one arber might be prepared to earn may not be worthwhile for another.

          Thing is, if you have access to multiple IDs (like live next to a university… lol) then you're better off smashing it hard up front and moving to the next ID. But if it's one ID then I guess we should all go for maximum total profit. Sounds like you're doing very well from it. Nice work.

        • bigstim179 on 25/08/2015 - 13:22
          +1

          @PBG:

          I just caught the end of last seasons aus football seasons, but wasn't arbing much then as I was just learning. I started to ramp up arbing coming in to the start of the bigger US sports. MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL etc. I was only betting small amounts of around $100-$200 per bet, although a lot of bets, and I lasted about 3-4 months doing that before limits came in. I was betting on smaller sports at the start too, but I found at some places I would get limited soon after betting on them, so quickly decided that was a bad idea.

          Throughout the process of getting found out, I discovered different bookies have different approaches when they've identified suspicous betting. I've found they either seem to fall in to one of the following categories.

          1. Some close accounts
          2. Some restrict bets
          3. Some send all the bets to the traders for manual checking.

          Obviously those that fall under category 1 are of no future use.

          Category 2 can still be useful depending on how the limits work. Most are a % limit of the max bet they are willing to accept on that market, but some are hard limits, others are soft limits in that they are a max bet per time period. Some may be a day, others a minute. On bigger sports where the overall limit might be high, being able to put something 10% or less of the max bet might still be useful if you can put that on each minute. If it's some small tennis tournament where a bookies max bet is $200, then arbing on a $20 bet is going to be a waste of time. If it's arbing on a big rugby game where a bookies limit is $20,000, then a $2000 bet might still be worth it. Hell even a 1% limit meaning a $200 bet might still be worth it if you can bet multiple times using that limit. On the Bledisloe Cup a couple of weekend ago, I was able to put a total of $15K of bets on at a bookie where I'm restricted on because it was close to kickoff so the betting limit was higher, and the limit is a soft limit of one bet per minute. I had to put 10 bets on to get to the $15K, but the arb profit was well worth the effort. A lot of the time the odds will change after getting a few bets on in a few minute period, but in some cases (like the bledisloe), they didn't.

          Category 3 can still be usefeul also, but it's really dependent on when you bet. Bet early in the week and most bets are unlikely to be accepted. Bet in the last few hours before the start and it's still possible to get decent sized amounts on. It can be a bit random though. My understanding is it comes down to how unbalanced a bookmakers books are. Obviously the ultimate for a bookie is to have amounts on both sides of a bet so they are winning the same amount regardless of the result. Exactly like what arbers are trying to do really. By the time kickoff is getting closer, they have a much better understanding of their liability on each side of the bet, and it may actually be in their favour to accept bets on one side of a bet.

          I actually think bookies that fall in to category 3 are the smartest ones of all. They have already identified the bettor as a sharp player, so it's in their best interest to keep them. It's like the saying "keep your friends close, and your enemies closer". If I bet on something now, they know there is something up with those odds. If they want to accept my bet, or come back with a reduced offer, then that's their call. As soon as I bet on it, I've already let them know something is up. Obviously they need to accept some of my bets, otherwise I wouldn't bother. The alternative is arbers who they haven't already identified yet will come and take advantage of the odds, at a much greater stake than I'm getting on for.

          It's just a matter of working out which bookies fall in to which category. Just because an account seems like it's useless, all may not be as it seems. Some bookies can be much more useful long term than others depending on how they handle arbers. They are all obviously much more work once you've been identified, but can still be worth it if you're prepared to put in the effort, although it seems to get harder as the weeks go on. Just gotta work out at what point it's no longer worth it. I'm still making an average of around $1000 a week using various techniques, so it's still worth it for me at this point. The ones above and there's a few other ones I'm using, but I'd prefer to keep them a little closer to my chest at this point.

          If someone asked me for one piece of advice when they started arbing, I'd say stick to big aus sports and bet in the last hour before the match. Pinnacle still has high limits for these sports. The limit last weekend on an AFL match I bet on was $18K. I'm sure the limits will still come, but in my opinion it's the best way to maximise profit. If it was possible to have multple IDs I'd even go so far to suggest to have a separate account for each sport. In my opinion one of the big tells for arbers is the number of different sports they bet on. Most mug punters might bet on the NRL, AFL, NFL or NBA etc, but I doubt most bet big on all of them. This is all just based on my learnings though. I can't say for sure this approach would result in more profit, but I'd be very intersted to see long term what results it has. I found a new bookie late in to arbing and have been following this approach all footy season, and I'm not even limited yet, even know I'm well up profit wise with them. Obviosuly that's not a big sample size though. Perhaps that bookie just has no idea haha.

        • tomclancy on 25/08/2015 - 15:04

          @bigstim179:

          You are very knowledgable and your insight is much appreciated. Might have even inspired me to get back out there and take all the new bookies for a spin.

          Thank you very much

  • bray77 on 19/06/2015 - 11:17

    Just on this, look into a process called matched betting. This is where you use a service called Betfair to lay the bets you back in order to take advantage of bookmaker free bets.

    Say you see a Sportsbet promotion saying deposit $650 and they will match that with a bonus bet.

    Using matched betting, you can extract about 75% of that ($480) as RISK FREE profit.

    The key here is, THIS IS NOT GAMBLING. It's maths. You account for every outcome so you'll never be sweating on a result.

    The only 2 risks I can think of: Human error made by yourself and the bookie closing down (Won't happen with the big ones)

    As you can see, I haven't actually told you how to do "matched betting", but there are good resources on google for that. I've been doing this for a year and have made $5k (which is good for a uni student).

    Please note* I wouldn't advise starting with a float anything less than $2000

    • tomclancy on 19/06/2015 - 11:46

      Correct. Match betting is just another variation of sports arbitrage which is purely maths based.

      Although I think you have missed the biggest risk with any arbitrage/match betting: mismatched betting rules. mskeggs mentions it above and if you don't know what you are doing you can genuinely lose both sides of the bet which would hurt…. REAL BAD.

      • shortgum on 19/06/2015 - 14:06
        +1

        taking highest deposit or first bet bonus can be a trap of the making by bookies. l used the centrebet $700 bonus. got restricted after placed my first bet because it is my deposit and first bet taken instantly… they say bonus is for recreational…

    • shaybisc on 19/06/2015 - 17:24

      What about having to turnover profit from bonus bets?

      • bray77 on 19/06/2015 - 17:48
        +2

        Idealy the free bets don't win. For example:

        STEP ONE

        $500 turnover at Beteasy
        Match is Atletico Madrid v Malmo FF on 23/10/14 at 4:45am
        BACK Halftime/full time ATL/ATL at beteasy at 1.67
        LAY Halftime/full time ATL/ATL at betfair at 1.681

        Bet amount: $500
        Bookmaker (Back)
        Odds 1.67 Commission % 0 Return: 835
        Betting Exchange (Lay)
        Odds 1.681 Commission % 5 Risk 346.93 Lay Stake:509.15

        Net result $483.69 (16.31 loss)

        I had my deposit matched up to $500 on this one. You always have to turn over your deposit once, which i did, losing $16.31.
        I have now unlocked the 2 X $250 free bets
        Here is an example of one:

        STEP 2

        Match 1 is Chealsea vs NK maribor 22/10/14 at 4:45am
        BACK draw at 8.4 at beteasy
        Lay draw at 8.6 at betfair

        Bet amount: $250 free
        Bookmaker (Back)
        Odds 8.4 Commission % 0 Return 1850
        Betting Exchange (Lay)
        Odds 8.4 Commission % 5 Risk 1626.83 Lay Stake: 211.73

        Net result: 201.14 (Cash in betfair)

        Notice how the BACK and LAY odds are really high. This means it's most likely that I will have $201.14 in my betfair account and to the bookmaker it will appear as though i have "lost" my free bet. If the bonus be was to win in this case, I would have $1850 in my bookmaker account that needs to be turned over. This is not ideal, but to do that, I just repeat step one, maybe losing $40 depending on how good the odds I find are.

        Overall from the $500 bonus i made $402 on from this bookmaker. And PBG, 100% agree mate, checking betting rules and terms and conditions is so important!

        • shortgum on 19/06/2015 - 18:05

          yes. l found uk horse racing is best to turnover bookies bonuses with betfair lay bet. patient enough get 85%+ turnover bonus face value. then hope not to win from stupid bookies

          make good enough money at one stage got restrict by ladbrokes n tomwaterhouse

          bray77 - Your calculation did not take away the Bonus bet value is not taken into account, it is incorrect. Beteasy/Crownet will take away the bonus value only left you will profit if win. Only Unibet give you also the Bonus value

        • tomclancy on 19/06/2015 - 19:37

          You're all over it bray :). Nice one.

  • [Deactivated] on 21/06/2015 - 22:55

    https://www.punters.com.au/news/Arbitrage%3A-My-45k-bet-that…

    good and interesting read for those who havent seen it

    • tomclancy on 22/06/2015 - 10:58
      +2

      Interesting read. The overall concept is correct but I feel it is massively exaggerated. For example:

      my automated computer program was in 24-hour operation, placing about 700 bets a day…. to the tune of $400 a day

      I also arbed at the same time as Luc - it was not champagne and roses like he makes out. I used arb-finding services to find the arbs and then placed them manually myself. I placed 7-8 arbs on weekdays and 10-12 on weekend days. I was generating $200-$300 per weekday and $400-$500 per weekend day. There is no way you could place 700 bets and generate a measly $400 - that doesn't make sense.

      Once the pricing was brought into the system, the bot would be configured to only fire off a bet once a certain threshold was reached. I wouldn't place a bet if the percentage was a profit but that profit was too small, and often on a Saturday I would make this profit threshold a fair bit higher: there is no point in placing a bet to win $12, when you have $1,000 tied up for 6 hours before the result of the race is finished.

      Yet above he says the bot placed 700 bets to average $400 per day? He averaged a profit of $0.57 per arb… so how low did he set his bot to place arbs… $0.01???

      My system was built to 'scrape' bookmaker's websites, pulling in the fixed odds on practically any market I had programmed it to cover. It would even cover overnight UK races, NRL, AFL, NFL, Eastern European women’s handball - you get the drift.

      Speak to any bot coder (I have) and the concensus is it takes approx 18 months full time for one person to build a bot, or $200k to have one built for you. The biggest challenge is mapping different team names because almost all bookies use a different variation of shortenings, full stops etc. And that 18 months is just for sports - not racing. Horse names are a challenge even bigger. I call total bullsh!t on Luc's bot even existing. Not that I'm saying it's impossible, because bots do exist (every arb-finding service is a bot) but they take teams of 10+ people just to maintain them and keep the mapping up to date.

      With one bookmaker, therefore, I might be identified as a professional punter (and would have trouble keeping my account open as a consequence); yet with another, I was identified as a must-keep resource that bet big, but lost often.

      This is not how limits are brought about. Arbers (or professional punters) are identified by movements in lines after bets have been placed. It's not based on whether a punter wins or loses - that is a myth. Look at how many arbers are limited after placing one bet and before the bet is even graded. This comment is totally false and an old wives tale that uneducated arbers commonly pass off as truth without understanding the mechanisms of bookie security.

      at one point I even had the ceo of a well-known Australian BookIE call me UP AND OFFER TO purchase the bot, just to get it out of 'enemy' hands.

      C'mon. I had calls from the heads of security of bookies and the only thing they offered me was my cash back when they closed my account. Why would they pay someone for something that a) they can shut him down easily in so many other ways; and b) they already have a better version in-house. This is completely fabricated.

      The corporate bookmakers in the latter category hence saw me as a ‘valuable’ client and I’d end up receiving a barrage of VIP offerings: free flights, grand final tickets and an array of other incentives in order to retain my business.

      Move on people - this guy is delusional.

      I suspect the whole purpose of the article is click-bait to bring in more players into the Punters (formerly Punters Paradise which Luc used to be the owner of) world. Advertising revenue and skimming profit-share from hopeful, but ultimately clueless, punters.

  • MrHyde on 26/06/2015 - 18:26

    From an arbing perspective, is there an Australian bookie who won't limit your account. So, far I started with SportsBet and got limited after 4 days even though my highest bet was a $100.

    • gooddealmate on 26/06/2015 - 18:36

      Did you win many bets with sportsbet? and what sports were you betting on? Just interested to know for when I start having a go at this. I'm thinking of sticking to just the one sport and try numerous bookies. Have had accounts with most Uk and aussie bookies for years now.

      • MrHyde on 26/06/2015 - 21:51

        Mostly tennis and a couple of soccer games (World Cup Football and friendlies). lot of the arbs were between Bet365 and Sportsbet. In terms of winning, I lost more than I won bet count wise; but I was slightly ahead in $ value.

        I kept all my bids at multiples of 10, but that didn't help.

        • shortgum on 27/06/2015 - 01:45

          I think avoid massive bet e.g. $200+ and large money movements can stay in longer. most promo give you a guide e.g. max $50, $100

          placed a promo bet on Murray to win wimbledon with Palmerbet promo $100. Will just Betfair lay it off when Murray gets to 3rd or 4th round for about $25 profit. his route is very tough then

          Happy with smaller profits than get restrict

    • tomclancy on 26/06/2015 - 21:31

      is there an Australian bookie who won't limit your account

      In short, there are no bookies in Australia considered sharp (i.e. welcoming arbers; not limiting accounts etc). In fact there are only 3-4 worldwide and almost all in Asia, with the exception of Pinnacle.

      However TAB don't limit players and even if they did you could place bets anonymously through their retail outlets which would bypass any limit. BUT their vig is massive —> $1.84 on head to head match-ups. So in other words good luck finding a large number of arbs that involves TAB. I would find seemingly a couple each week but whenever I tried confirming the TAB leg the trader would change the odds on me and I wasn't able to place a single bet with them.

      • MrHyde on 26/06/2015 - 22:03

        Thanks for the info on TAB. I have found a couple of arbs with them against Centrebet. Will have to see how often that happens to see if it is worth adding some money in a TAB account.

        • tomclancy on 26/06/2015 - 23:15

          I found that everytime I would place a TAB bet (submitting the bet) it would think for 30 seconds and then tell me the odds had dropped and asked if I wanted to accept the new odds. Odds movements were big, like submitted at $2.00 and updated odds offered to me were $1.60. I never got an arb with TAB that I can remember.

        • shortgum on 27/06/2015 - 01:50
          +1

          @PBG: opportunity can be found, got interest odds if patient enough also with TAB. I placed a bet with TAB Copa america winner Chile at 6.50 before tournament then betfair lay it about 5.1 for $100. handy small profit there about $15. See how far Chile now in the semis

        • gooddealmate on 27/06/2015 - 11:17
          +1

          @leehungfei:

          Have a look at Ubet's offer the next hour. $25 max bet on cowboys to score first @ $3.

          Sportsbet paying 2.26 for sharks.

          $25 on each pays $25 profit Cowboys & $6.50 Sharks.

        • shortgum on 10/07/2015 - 16:30
          +1

          @gooddealmate: Wimbledon Federer vs Murray most aces

          Most Aces
          Sportsbet 1.97 Federer
          Unibet 2.35 Murray

          Bet around $100-$200 only should be safe from bookies flag. Not sure how long will stay there

  • Davros on 10/07/2015 - 16:33
    -3

    "A 'No Lose Gamble' (Betting)"

    Desperate much?

  • [Deactivated] on 12/08/2015 - 22:44

    heres one guys

    http://odds.aussportsbetting.com/betting?competitionid=15&ma…

    Sportsbet.com.au - Greenbay 1.54
    ladbrokes.com.au - Chicago 3.20

    here is the outcome

    Bet $675 on green bay @ 1.54 = 1039.5
    Bet $325 on chicago @ 3.20 = 1040

    Total spent $1000
    Profit will be either $39.50 or $40

    a 3.95% return on investment (noting that the game is in one month on Sep 14th)

    (i normally dont go that far out stick to 24/48hrs) to avoid tying up capital

    • shortgum on 13/08/2015 - 16:45

      Daftpunk is refer to NFL football match next month 14/9/15

      Win market
      Sportsbet Greenbay 1.54
      Betstar Chicago 3.25 (same as ladbrokes)

      I seriously would not put over $200 in any bookies, really MAX $250, apart Betfair. Good luck not getting flag

      4.29% guarantee return for a month is decent wait to me… Well my lesson learnt not to be too greed with them

  • shortgum on 16/02/2016 - 01:56

    Promotion-
    Place a Correct Score bet on any of this week’s UEFA Champions League matches and if your selection is successful, receive a 20% bonus on your winnings up to $50

    I used to calculate this pretty okay. I have done a few 'double you winning 100%' pretty quick'. But mind just stuck on some algebra expression on getting the 20% part into my formula which I am going to lay it in Betfair.

    Any maths freaks can help me out solve this maths equation.

    E.g. 1-1 odds at $7. How to calculate the bonus winning 20% up to $50 (Work out the maximum stake value). Then rest is just other side on betfair take away commission to lay it off.

    I guess my 100% winning is easier as you just x-1 then $50/(x-1)

    Thanks if can help!

    • tomclancy on 13/09/2016 - 11:23
      +2

      Cool story. I have software that makes USD5,781/month guaranteed through binary trading investments. You may scoff at my software, it is certainly the only one on the net, why are there not dozens , well there is a very very good reason why there are not dozens and WHY there never will be. But I cannot tell you this reason until you send me money via Western Union.

      LOL but my favourite part of your spam is this:

      i def do not use either of these programs myself and no one associated with it uses it either

      Riiiiiiight……

  • bemybubble on 13/09/2016 - 08:31
    +2

    Can we setup a punters club thread on OzB? :D

  • ukulele on 23/09/2016 - 12:03
    +1

    Pretty epic thread though!!! Really piqued my interest. I knew arbs would be around, just didn't realise how damn often they occur? Are you guys still doing this?

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