USD Vs AUD

mecusherb on 13/03/2020 - 12:55

I work for a company based out of China and my rate is locked to USD. They're contracts for freelance work and the sums are substantial.

My question is as I have no idea about market movement. The exchange rate at the moment for me is quite good for $1USD being $1.54AUD (It was $1.45 a few months ago).

Now do you think both markets will essentially fall or adjust at the same rate or should I be worried that on the day of a transfer it could all flip and I'll get a dreadful rate?

My invoice will probably be paid mid April.

Financial

Comments

  • Diji1 on 13/03/2020 - 13:04
    -5

    To me it looks like the USA is going to take a massive hit from COVID19.

    Due to delusional, child-like leadership and the private health care system.

    • mecusherb on 13/03/2020 - 13:05
      +1

      Do you think it would be a shrewd move to request they pay me out ASAP. The work isn't complete but I have a long standing relationship with them.

    • [Deactivated] on 13/03/2020 - 15:16
      +6

      The leadership that has seen reduced unemployment, a stronger US dollar, reduced foreign dependency and increased border security is delusional and child-like.

      Give me straight up psychotic and infant-like!

      • p1 ama on 13/03/2020 - 16:30
        +3

        To be completely fair, the "leadership" have very little to do with these economic indicators, which have been favourable since Obama was in office.

    • garetz on 13/03/2020 - 16:45

      This is how it should be if markets were not being manipulated, however considering the USD is the currency of international trade, i dont think it will happen.

  • GG57 on 13/03/2020 - 13:07
    +4

    It would appear that you have accepted the exchange rate risk by agreeing to be paid in USD.
    You could ask your bank about a Forward Exchange Contract (or similar) for the expected USD amount. It will lock in your exchange rate for that USD, but it will be based on the latest rate (with interest rate factors adjusting that rate).
    Or you could forget about it and wait for the USD to be paid, and then see what the rate is and decide then. If you don't need to convert the USD to AUD immediately, you can wait for the rates to move (up or down - your risk).

      • Typical16-bitEnjoyer on 13/03/2020 - 13:13
        +15

        Nobody does.

        • mecusherb on 13/03/2020 - 13:15

          Fair enough.

          I do like gambling I suppose.

        • [Deactivated] on 13/03/2020 - 14:31
          -1

          This made me lol so hard. What has ozbargain come to?

          • RockyRaccoon on 13/03/2020 - 15:26
            +1

            @[Deactivated]: PsychicOz or PredictABargain

            All care no responsibility.

            What the heck, I predict 59.496c to USD…. 🤩

      • GG57 on 13/03/2020 - 13:16

        Very unlikely that anyone on here will have an idea, unless they work in the markets and deal in currency professionally. And most of those are limited in the positions they can take, based on risk.

      • ozbjunkie on 14/03/2020 - 08:44

        Allow me to reiterate the bleeding obvious. Nobody can tell you what the exchange rate is going to be in a few months.

      • Tiller76 on 16/03/2020 - 10:47

        Why bother with the exchange rate if you're foretelling the future. Give me the damn lotto numbers instead!

    • Geoff-bargain on 14/03/2020 - 10:59

      You can get a better rate at somewhere like ofx than through a bank in a forward exchange contact
      https://www.ofx.com/en-au/money-transfer//

  • [Deactivated] on 13/03/2020 - 13:11
    +7

    Australian dollar usually suffers the worst. The AUD has been 0.50-0.55 USD before and will head there even on US bad news. Funnily enough, there has been a saying about the AUD "when the US sneezes, Australia catches a cold".

  • DingoBilly on 13/03/2020 - 13:37

    You could look at future markets and see what's being predicted there… But it's a lot of guesswork, you could follow that market and they could be completely wrong.

    Bit of an unusual question tbh.

    • mecusherb on 13/03/2020 - 13:39
      -1

      It's an unusual question if you're good with international finance. I have no idea so I thought maybe someone might be able to shed some light on it.

  • Meho2026 on 13/03/2020 - 13:52
    +4

    You'll be better off. The $Au is a vulnerable currency and its value collapses with the slightest sniff of either a Chinese or Global economic downturn.

  • Almost Banned on 13/03/2020 - 14:58
    +3

    The US$ is generally seen as a global safe currency - so when shocks hit people tend to flock to the greenback.
    The only way the AU$ would outperform the US$ would be if our economy outperformed the US. In the current climate that would only happen if Australia remained relatively free of Coronovirus AND our trading partners did too.
    Given Australia's largest trading partners are China, Japan, Korea and the US I think that is very unlikely.

    • [Deactivated] on 13/03/2020 - 15:18
      +4

      Yes! Like the Euro!

      I've heard good things.

  • Climber on 13/03/2020 - 15:19
    -1

    This is just my opinion.

    • about a week ago Fed cut 0.5. The intention is clear to me - they want to make USD weaker. (RBA cut 0.25). They failed, btw.
    • on next week(18th, I think), I bet Fed will cut it towards 0. US wants to save its own country and don't care about other nations.

    I bet in a short term, AUD can be stronger than USD.

    But if this crisis continues(highly likely to me), people will want safer asset. And this will make USD very strong again.

    • RockyRaccoon on 13/03/2020 - 15:28
      +2

      Haha, so whichever way it moves you can declare yourself a winner…

  • netjock on 13/03/2020 - 15:39

    Don't worry this coronavirus panic won't be over for a while.

  • Heaps for Cheaps on 13/03/2020 - 19:16

    The AU dollar will barely make any positive move up against the US$. Let's come back in 4 weeks and reflect
    US$1000 USD = AUD$1589 via XE.com - 7:30pm 13th March, 2020

  • rocmelon on 14/03/2020 - 12:13
    -1

    Look at XE.com 2 year trend
    AUD is diving steadily.
    I can see it recovering any time soon.

  • LFO on 14/03/2020 - 13:01

    My invoice will probably be paid mid April.

    Could you possibly renegotiate your contract?
    Probably not. So you are kind of stuck with it.

    However, FX or Foreign Exchange Rates fluctuate as industrialized countries want to have the cheapest currency so exporting is easy as their products/produce are "cheap" for those outside that country.

    The USA and China have been accused mutually of currency speculation and manipulation.
    So they both are in the same race.
    So your final pay will be about the same in US currency or Chinese currency.

    The Australian dollar sinks for different reasons, mostly artificially generated as the economy is relatively small, fragile and malleable.

    Australia produces gold bullion, gold bullion is the world's parameter for currencies so expect, as it happened before, an AUD rate floating between 0.49 (2001) or 1.1 (2015?). Right now seems to be slowly heading to 0.5 region again.

    Remember that exchange rates are made of people (banks rather!!!) selling or buying AUD and locally buying or selling those AUD. Can be easily manipulated (for the almighty rich corporations).

  • peteru on 14/03/2020 - 15:20

    I used to get paid in USD from USA, Korea and Canada. You just ride the exchange rate roller-coaster. If your time is worth any decent amount of money, then trying to hold a USD account and second guessing the foreign exchange is unlikely to be worth the $ in the long run.

    You should not be so worried about AUD exchange rate, as much as the Chinese Yuan exchange rate and, more significantly, the ability of Chinese companies to pay. Talk to your Chinese counterparts and suggest to them that they may want to make partial/advance payments before their exchange rates make it more expensive for them. You don't want to wait until they have cash flow issues - you are not going to get paid.

    Or you could take the ethical/moral high ground, realise that life must be pretty hard for people in China and just leave things as they are, instead of throwing curve balls at them. No right or wrong answers there.

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