Some Supermarket Musings

Scorpex on 19/03/2020 - 09:29
Last edited 19/03/2020 - 10:52

Like many Ozbargainers (I am sure), I often bulk buy supermarket bargains. This means that I am not in a good position to condemn those who have recently changed their buying patterns. However, I fear that we are viewing the end of the basic relationship between vendor and customer in the food supply chain. The power has transferred to the supplier. Supermarkets will no longer feel that they have to offer specials or any other incentive to get customers into stores.

To the hoarders, may I just offer some advice. Make your purchases last for twice as long as you have planned. Judging by the size of many of the folks I saw pushing loaded trolleys around, now is the perfect time to consume a little less food. And please don't waste what you have taken so much trouble to accumulate. Make sure that food only leaves your house in a stomach or a pipe.

I have often observed to anyone who is close enough to listen that our society is only a few square meals away from anarchy. Total disruption of the food supply chain could wipe out a majority of the developed world's population in a few months. Today's shelf clearing would become tomorrow's looting. But it will be OK - the hunters and gatherers and subsistence farmers (remember them - those poor brutes to whom our forebears brought civilisation) will live on to ensure that the human race continues.

Food & Grocery

Comments

  • c64 on 19/03/2020 - 09:37
    +14

    when this all blows over there is going to be an enormous slump in sales

    • onetwothreefour on 19/03/2020 - 10:05

      Yeah but I bet the supermarkets are loving it at the moment, customers popping in every day to see if there is any available toilet paper and even if there isn't they'll see something they need/want and buy it.

    • JimmyF on 19/03/2020 - 10:17
      +2

      The slump is coming regardless. People have stock piled, so one of two things will happen

      • We'll enter lock down, so people won't be buying food.

      • They start eating the stock pile and won't be buying food.

      For the 'retailer' this short term bummer sales will come with a massive slump, no matter what way it goes.

      Bit like toilet paper, people have 12 months supply now at home, so what do you think will happen to sales? Thats right, mega slump as people use up all the toilet paper.

      Woolies reported it was selling 7 weeks worth of toilet paper sales every day.

      • Bargain80 on 19/03/2020 - 11:44

        but some people are stockpiling fresh food (e.g. chicken, mince meat).
        soon they will realise that those things won't last forever. and there's no point of stockpiling fresh food.

        • silverrat23 on 19/03/2020 - 12:06

          And fresh milk (from the fridge).

          Why?

          • [Deactivated] on 19/03/2020 - 12:22
            +1

            @silverrat23: I've seen some people freeze fresh milk.

            • Bargain80 on 19/03/2020 - 12:25

              @[Deactivated]: I'm pretty sure the milk will break down if you freeze and then thaw it. it's still edible though probably.

              my local supermarket yesterday ran out of onion and potatoes.
              crazy.
              They last quite a while, but not that long.

              • [Deactivated] on 19/03/2020 - 12:26

                @Bargain80: I bought some onions today. It was on special at mine.

              • josetann on 19/03/2020 - 13:02

                @Bargain80: My grandma used to freeze milk all the time (shelf-stable milk isn't popular in the US, luckily I've found a reasonably cheap supply of it). It gets this slightly weird look to it over time, like there's little particles in it that aren't fully dissolved. Perfectly usable, and if you cook with it you won't notice anything's off (but if you're cooking with it, might as well use powder milk…takes up less space).

            • jonathonsunshine on 21/03/2020 - 19:46

              @[Deactivated]: I do that but it's just my emergency stash. Sometimes if the fridge is full and i get a new milk, i'll freeze the remainder of the old one for just in case. If it means I can have a cup of tea before I head to work, totally worth it.

          • JimmyF on 19/03/2020 - 13:42
            +1

            @silverrat23:

            And fresh milk (from the fridge). Why?

            Milk can be frozen without issue. You need to let it fully defrost then give it a shake. Good as 'fresh' again.

        • Cluster on 19/03/2020 - 12:27
          +1

          Maybe they're all working in restaurants Gordon Ramsay will visit, and going to serve him fresh frozen meat from Chef Mike.

        • dcep on 19/03/2020 - 12:45

          Can you eat 2 year old frozen meat?
          As long as it has been kept frozen meat and poultry will be safe to eat indefinitely. The quality of the meat may deteriorate with time. This depends on whether the meat was packed in a airtight container before freezing.

        • JimmyF on 19/03/2020 - 13:42
          +1

          people are stockpiling fresh food (e.g. chicken, mince meat).

          GASP this stuff can be frozen. Don't know if you have noticed, but you can't buy a freezer anymore! They are all sold out.

          Every freezer on the goodguys website is 'low stock, check instore' aka sold out.

          there's no point of stockpiling fresh food.

          I disagree, spuds keep for months in a cool dark place, as well as onions and maybe other items.

          GASP lots of produce only comes into season once a year, for the rest of the year its stored in cool rooms etc.

          So if you have the fridge or freezer space you'll be ok.

          • Bargain80 on 19/03/2020 - 14:34

            @JimmyF: yeah but you don't need to stockpile
            maybe a week supply, or two.

            • JimmyF on 19/03/2020 - 14:56
              +1

              @Bargain80:

              yeah but you don't need to stockpile. maybe a week supply, or two.

              I'll give you an example I've seen on the buy/swap/sell pages I'm part of.

              Kids panadol is in short supply, parents blaming 'stock pilers' for the storage but based on all the parents who are commenting they too are trying to buy kids panadol for their kids 'just in case' and these bastard stockpilers have taken all the stock.

              But it would appear its not stockpiling that causing the storage its the fact that 500 parents who don't or wouldn't normally buy kids panadol right now are rushing out trying to get a bottle just in case. Not really a single person buying 20/30 or 100 bottles.

              The same goes for everything else. I myself buy pasta once a month or two. But yes went and got a extra packet just in case a while ago. Now if everyone did that, the surge in sales out strips supplies and the shelf is empty.

              Stores only carry an average of what they sell and get a top up each week. When a spike in sales of ANYTHING happens, you get empty shelves.

              • jonathonsunshine on 21/03/2020 - 19:52
                +1

                @JimmyF: I think that a lot of people in the "hoarders are (Un-Australian|bad|selfish|stupid) camp would gladly be hoarding themselves had they gotten to the supermarket earlier.

                It's really surprising though the things that /aren't/ getting hoarded. I mean, whos buying all this pasta with no sauce?

                • JimmyF on 21/03/2020 - 20:44

                  @jonathonsunshine: Agreed, I haven't hoarded 2 years of food everywhere here seems to thing people are doing, but I did start buying extra each shop 6 weeks ago. As could see this day coming. So my 'stockpile' was grown over a long period of time and honestly have no regrets. And no people I missed out on toilet paper too. I did this as I care for someone who is in a high risk group, I want to limit my trips out once this starts to 'blow' up.

                  hahaha yes I have had the same thought as well for pasta, but I was also shocked at all the 'bakers' we have in Australia when the flour ran off the shelfs. Who know we baked so much or are these just the pasta buyers who will find out just like they forgot the pasta sauce, they also need other ingredients to use the flour with.

                  I guess they can make flat bread, as thats just flour/water/salt……

      • Lurk Hartog on 20/03/2020 - 10:12
        +1

        Please note that neither Italy nor China closed down supermarkets or chemists during their lockdowns. If we are put into lockdown, we can still buy groceries. There is no need to hoard.

        • JimmyF on 20/03/2020 - 10:17
          -1

          There is no need to hoard.

          The gov told everyone to have 2 weeks of food on hand, so when ~24m people rush out and buy 2 weeks worth of food at once as per the gov request, it creates shortages. Simple as that.

          I agree the supermarkets and chemist stayed open, there should be food around.

          But people also just don't want to go out when it gets bad or are at high risk and shouldn't be going out. So don't judge those who wish to stock up on extra food now. As you stay, the shops will be open for you.

          • Lurk Hartog on 20/03/2020 - 10:23

            @JimmyF: There's nothing wrong with buying enough food to last you two weeks. I think we all know that there are people who are not doing that, but are instead buying as much as they possibly can.

            Think how much toilet paper someone would need for 2 weeks, versus how much certain people have been buying.

            These people deserve to be judged and shamed. It is completely selfish and irresponsible, and causes genuine harm to society.

            • JimmyF on 20/03/2020 - 10:29

              @Lurk Hartog:

              toilet paper

              hahaha yes well no one can understand this one, and its just not Aussies….. Its a world wide issue!

              It is completely selfish and irresponsible, and causes genuine harm to society.

              I disagree. Some are doing it to protect their family. You can't look at someone who has a trolley load of food and say they're hoarding. My sister is a family of 7. They consume a LOT of food weekly before this. She always has a trolley loaded to the top. Ever had to feed 3 teenagers? just WOW.

              Sure some might be doing it, but as you say, the shops will be open the food will keep coming. Its a short term issue that once they're stocked up, it'll be ok.

              Other than toilet paper hoarding….. who knows what people will be doing with that for the next 5 years!

          • AS2035 on 20/03/2020 - 18:41

            @JimmyF: No, they buy 2 years worth of wood & supplies

            • JimmyF on 20/03/2020 - 18:44

              @AS2035: haha I needed a laugh. No one has gotten 2 years worth of food. Stop consuming fake news.

              • AS2035 on 20/03/2020 - 18:51

                @JimmyF: Oh dear, have you seen the photos people post?

                Stop quoting WH disaster, you will live longer. The man is fake.

                • JimmyF on 20/03/2020 - 18:59

                  @AS2035: Yes, if you think that is 2 years worth of 'food', then we really need to 'talk'.

                  • AS2035 on 21/03/2020 - 14:54

                    @JimmyF: Someone wants a fight.. sorry child, not going happen.

                    Unless you've been the photos you are spreading fake news.

                    So go back and stick your head in the sand..

                    • JimmyF on 21/03/2020 - 19:17

                      @AS2035:

                      Someone wants a fight

                      Says the personal unleashing the abuse and name calling. It would appear you're the child one here, not me.

                      Anyhow, yes I've seen the photos, if stupid people think that is 2 years worth of 'food', then so be it. Stupid people are just that.

    • brad1-8tsi on 19/03/2020 - 15:40
      +1

      when this all blows over there is going to be an enormous slump in sales

      I made this comment to my GF who works in FMCG. She claims heaps will be thrown in the bin as people won't be able to break out of their normal consumption & cooking habits.

      I was surprised but she's one of the leading analysts in shopper behaviour in Australia.

      • Scorpex on 19/03/2020 - 21:11
        +1

        Very interesting comment indeed. That's why I mentioned waste in my post - no food should leave a house unless in a stomach or flushed down a pipe. Heaps thrown out….what a needless travesty.

      • JimmyF on 20/03/2020 - 10:24

        She claims heaps will be thrown in the bin

        There will be waste from items that go off for sure, but I don't see people throwing shelf stable products in the bin. That's just crazy. Unless they just went mental and grabbed anything possible from the shelf as that is what everyone else was doing.

        I myself have a couple of weeks of food on hand, I didn't bulk buy but slowly sourced this over the last 4-6 weeks as I could see this coming from as soon as China locked down its people. Its like oh if it gets out which at that stage it had, it'll be happening here too.

        I didn't 'mass' buy anything, but did add a few extra items to each and every shop and no toilet paper wasn't one of them. I got caught out on that one! There one day, gone the next!

        But for me I got items that are shelf stable, I do eat and that store well. So I won't be throwing them out!

        • brad1-8tsi on 20/03/2020 - 14:04

          I think she said 60% of shopper visit the supermarket that day to buy dinner ingredients and that if they have food stockpiled in the freezer it's out of their habitual comfort zone and eventually they decide it's been in the freezer too long and they throw it out.

          I was surprised but she the go-to person for this stuff.

  • serpserpserp on 19/03/2020 - 10:24

    So has anyone gone to the supermarket today? After last nights closing early to restock has the panic buying stopped?

    • Nugs on 19/03/2020 - 10:54

      I went because I normally do after school drop off.
      normally one person in a line up at that particular small Drakes, today was 12 when I lined up and doubled before I was served
      pensioner behind me spent the entire time moaning about pricing and stock levels.
      .

    • indium on 19/03/2020 - 10:57

      I went today, produce was well stocked, meat was fairly bare, grocery was well stocked except for pasta, pasta sauces, TP, sanitiser, freezer was well stocked, dairy was bare however it looked like the dairy load had just rocked up.

      I'm annoyed about the 2 item limit per person but am also glad it is in place to prevent others from hoarding. There were 3 full trollies at the front that staff were organising, I didn't have a close look but I assume all the stock in these trollies was the items that were over the limits so maybe that's where all the pasta was.

      • Scorpex on 19/03/2020 - 11:04

        The buying restrictions are sort of like a fishing bag limit, aren't they? Maybe putting it in those terms might make them more understandable for the punters. We've put them in place to ensure survival of the species…..us.

        • indium on 19/03/2020 - 11:23

          True, but we're not relying on our products to reproduce more products, there is still plenty of food to survive. I think the issue was that a few inconsiderate people hoarded particular items which then sparked FOMO in the rest of the nation. I don't even eat pasta yet there is some primal part of my brain telling me to purchase it just because it's a rare item. The limits should reduce the FOMO in everyone as they will know that when they go to the supermarket they will be able to purchase what they are after and they won't worry about needing to hoard as it won't be an option for themselves.

          • serpserpserp on 19/03/2020 - 14:03

            @indium:

            I don't even eat pasta yet there is some primal part of my brain telling me to purchase it just because it's a rare item.

            Did you know when you combine three packets of pasta you get a socketed item? ;)

            Maybe you can trade it for some TP?

    • [Deactivated] on 19/03/2020 - 12:24

      I went today. Plenty of meat and fresh fruits and vegetables at my local.

    • AS2035 on 20/03/2020 - 18:42

      Yet yesterday around lunch time.. no tooth paste, no cheap vinegar, 2 of 3 things I needed. Forgot to get the 3rd item. Forgot to look for it.

  • GG57 on 19/03/2020 - 10:27

    Interesting post.
    I've been thinking that this crisis and the near-certain mandatory isolations (or at least restricted socialisation) may be the best chance for our communities to 're-set' and get back to a more simplistic but sharing lifestyle.
    Where we actually know and converse with our neighbours, where we help each other out (maybe even give the odd cup of sugar, or half roll of toilet paper), where we consider our actions in the bigger scheme of things rather than in a self-centred way.
    I'm seeing those intentions in my local community. Someone suggested setting up a local skills register; a lot of people are responding enthusiastically.
    I'm seeing even the supermarkets focusing on those more in need (those on pensions or benefits etc.) and at least looking like they are caring.

    • Scorpex on 19/03/2020 - 11:11

      Raises that very interesting consideration. In a crisis, at what level do we focus? Do we look after ourselves? Our family? Our community? Our town/city? Our state? Our country? Our planet?

      • GG57 on 19/03/2020 - 11:55

        Don't we just work our way up Maslow's Hierarchy, pretty much in the order that you have listed.

    • ssquid on 19/03/2020 - 17:00
      -1

      You don't go trading goods with neighbours when there's a pandemic on.

  • Diji1 on 19/03/2020 - 10:51
    +2

    Where we actually know and converse with our neighbours, where we help each other out

    LMAO.

    Our society is based on buying things so that people in our peer group like us. And showing people who haven't bought stuff that we are superior to them because of objects that we own.

    Not helping each other out, we only do that when we think we are in personal danger. Which is why your pining about people behaving like hunter gatherers instead of "civilised" as this fools calls it.

  • mreddie on 19/03/2020 - 10:59

    I went in today to Coles in Smith St Collingwood and it was very well stocked, I didn't go down the toilet paper aisle but for the most part the rushed scenes I'd witnessed days before were gone - and it looked like everything was there if you needed it.

  • arkie0 on 19/03/2020 - 11:13
    +1

    QLD and NSW recently put through new laws (by removing noise pollution laws) to allow truck deliveries at all hours, this will allow shelves to be stocked better.

    This is what is holding up shelves to be stocked 24/7, not the supply chain. Suppliers/distributors have already said they still have a lot of stock, and Australia is the food basket of Australia, we export enough food to feed Australia 2 times over.

  • revheadgl on 19/03/2020 - 12:10

    I would like to offer my thanks to all of hysterically insane hoarders, because after they stop, there are going to be some amazing specials at the supermarkets.

    • Scorpex on 19/03/2020 - 12:20
      +1

      Yep, the behaviour can look bizarre. But when you have experienced such things as war, harvest failure, food shortages/famine, displacement etc, the behaviour seems entirely logical.

      • revheadgl on 19/03/2020 - 12:25

        I am 60yo and never seen anything like this in Aus though. Talking to my mother who is in her eighties, she reckons the shelves are emptier than during and after WW2.

        • Cluster on 19/03/2020 - 12:28

          People in Australia haven't seen this in generations, but those living in Venezuela and Zimbabwe have very recent memories or are living through it right now.

          We're lucky in Australia that we see panic buying once every 70 years. Many people like to moan about living in this country while not realizing how good we have it.

          • revheadgl on 19/03/2020 - 12:37

            @Cluster: Undeniably we are very lucky in this country, which is why the current hoarding here is unnecessary.

            • dcep on 19/03/2020 - 12:53

              @revheadgl: Our luck will run out soon, we have been lucky in 2008 GFC but not this time round

              • ssquid on 19/03/2020 - 17:02

                @dcep: Yep, AUD dropped 15c today so the "aussie tax" is definitely going to be making a comeback.

    • AS2035 on 20/03/2020 - 18:44

      Harvey Norman did a great trade on chest freezers as well. hoarders boosting economy, sadly the vulnerable going without

    • petry on 20/03/2020 - 19:06

      no there won't be

  • netjock on 19/03/2020 - 12:21

    After this is done they can raise the prices and if 2/3 of us went on a diet like we should let's see what happens!?

  • Diggins on 19/03/2020 - 12:28

    woke

  • ihbh on 19/03/2020 - 12:46

    Like many Ozbargainers (I am sure), I often bulk buy supermarket bargains

    … Like many Ozbargainers (I am sure), I often bulk buy supermarket bargains … with further supermarket incentives. Luckily there were a few of these recently.

    power has transferred to the supplier

    Definitely. No only did most of the recent hoarders buy at the high prices (of the high-low pricing strategy), they probably pushed their incentive thresholds up significantly for the future. These hoarders should have bought just the homebrands with their everyday pricing (and many did) or at Aldi with their everyday low pricing and perhaps not scanned their cards, or bought multiple times for the one big trolley.

    There will be a pipeline effect of sorts, less probably considerable wastage, so the incentives might have to be resumed. In the next weeks/months, many of the hoarders will run out of money/credit and/or space, so it will be interesting to see how Coles/Woolworths respond.

    • petry on 20/03/2020 - 19:03

      reckon that's the permanent end of rainchecks which means less promotional stock - add in loss of fake advertising rights - routine purchasing just got more expensive forever… greed has never paid so well… the yank way.

      • ihbh on 20/03/2020 - 20:28

        Fortunately we have Aldi - the two majors either move significantly to every day low pricing, or they will have to promote in some way.

        • petry on 21/03/2020 - 10:24

          aldi are tiny

          • ihbh on 21/03/2020 - 12:23

            @petry: Not tiny. 11.5% vs ~30% for the majors, but growing much quicker.

            • petry on 21/03/2020 - 14:50

              @ihbh: so just over 10% is not small, whatever

    • jonathonsunshine on 21/03/2020 - 20:03

      I use so little toilet paper. A guy in my house uses crap tonnes of it outside of the bathroom but I lived on my own for 6 months and had a few left from an 8 pack when I moved out. Helps if you're out of the house a lot of the time but if toilet paper suddenly tripled in price permanently, I don't think it would be that big a deal.

  • Choc83 on 23/03/2020 - 11:28

    Another thing I've noticed - weekly specials have disappeared. I have a few woolworths and flybuys accounts, and usually one of them has a 'spend $XX get YYYY points' offer - these are all dried up. Chances are they will reappear once the supermarkets start noticing pent up demand subsiding

    • ssquid on 23/03/2020 - 13:44

      A lot of the weekly specials have been withdrawn due to the buying limits, it makes no sense having promos like "Buy 3, save 25%" when there's a limit of 2.

      • Choc83 on 23/03/2020 - 14:15

        I feel they've just had a meeting and told the promotions department to hold their horses - they don't need their help to drive people into stores. Would be a fascinating time to be working in the head office of one of the major supermarket chains.

Login or Join to leave a comment
Login Join