Investing in ASX 200 to Catch The Re-Stabilisation Bubble ?

I've never invested in the share market but I have been doing some preliminary research into the ASX200.

Given that I had other commitments when the GFC happened I couldn't catch the growth benefits afterwards.

I'm in a different position now and would like to temporarily divert my savings from my current ~2.5% savings account and catch the ASX200 rise then withdraw back into my savings account once the ASX200 reaches it's pre-Covid19 levels (Or close to it).

Could I do the investment myself or would it be better to take an admin fee hit and get an investment firm to do it for me?

I'm curious about the Tax implications (Capital Gains Tax) and ultimately if I'd be better off just sticking with a low interest rate savings account or term deposit.

Any thoughts would be appreciated.

Cheers.

Comments

    • I hope you're right… despite the hit my super will take, but that will recover in time.

      But I missed the chance to raise funds and setup a trading account before the stocks I had my eye on started rising again.

      I'll be ready if there's a 2nd chance.

  • +1

    Here’s how I think About this stock market right now.

    Stock price usually reflects future earnings of the company.

    Now let’s just say the market very peak was 100% correct and all news factored in. Then comes the corona virus and everything shuts down. The most optimistic view I can see where things go back to somewhat normal would be 5-6 months. That means no or little earning for company for 5-6 months, which also means the market should be 41-49% cheaper than peak based on earning alone(of course it’s a lot more complicated than this). But it isn’t, which to me this market makes 0 sense. The US market is 13% down from peak with a Shutdown economy. Something isn’t right.

    I say keep your money, we’re not close to the bottom yet. I am keeping all my cash on the sideline. Pretty tempted to buy though.

    • +2

      You're correct that a share price is based on future earnings. But not future earnings in the next 12 months. It's future earnings in the next 15-20 years. Look up Price to Earnings (PE) ratio. PE is how many years of earnings it will take a company to repay it's share price to investors.

      The average PE is around 16 in the long run. In other words, a share price is based on what the market consensus believes a particular company will profit for the next 16 years.

      You're right that it's a lot more complicated than that though. The market is also factoring in a lot of companies making big losses this next 12 months. It's factoring in interest rates being very low for a long period of time, and investors having nowhere else to put their money. The thing that makes it most difficult is we can't tell what is and isn't priced in.

    • That means no or little earning for company for 5-6 months, which also means the market should be 41-49% cheaper than peak based on earning alone

      This assumes there is zero economic activity which is ridiculous. Its not a complete shutdown. Food is going great. Internet companies are going great.

      • +1

        If that's your bull thesis, feel free to buy in. I said how I interpreter the market, you might think differently.

      • If by food you mean staple groceries, sure. But that will always do well. Everything outside of that has fallen off a cliff. (Restaurants, take away, etc)

          • @sevendollarsfifty: Which facts? Restaurants are taking a beating. A surge in food delivery is no where near enough to save places. I know someone that runs a very we'll known grilled chicken franchise that had to shut down last week after letting all staff go.

            There's been deals posted on this site from exotic ingredients due to the lack of demand lol.

            • @nomoneynoproblems: The facts from the link above. Its not just food delivery. Online gaming, pharmacy, alcohol and tobacco, online retail, home improvement, groceries, pet care.

              With all due respect I don't take your anecdotal evidence too seriously when there's a survey available based on transactions from 250000 consumers.

              • @sevendollarsfifty: Ok I meant everything related to food. You don't have to take mine seriously, just go to any major city or shopping district and see for yourself. You don't need a survey to tell you how wrecked they're getting.

                • @nomoneynoproblems: Oh yep sorry. We're not on the same wavelength. Prepared food has fallen off a cliff as you've said. I should have specified grocery not fast food. My bad.

  • +1

    Timing is pretty hard for professionals. With this environment you’ll have extremes views with this wuhan flu being beaten in 6 months and everything going back to normal or the world going straight to hell and the indexes losing 80% of their value. No one honestly knows at this point and I don’t. Keep us updated. Be interesting to see how things work out.

  • Yeah do it now before you miss out. We've just had a massive discount and now are on a steady uptrend again the past 2 weeks. Looks like the worst is over

    • +4

      Are you for real? The repercussions of this haven't even begun to sink in.

      • Can you explain why this is the case? Not suggesting you are wrong, but if prices are going up, and the situation in Australia appears to maybe getting better, why would the damage not have even yet begun?

        • +3

          Social distancing will continue for months - I don’t think this is widely appreciated. The average punter is linking the success of Australia’s actions to date to a lifting of restrictions.

          JobKeeper is the equivalent of $39k per year - peanuts. I don’t think as many employers as ScoMo hopes will be treating it as a contribution from the government to someone’s usual salary. Many will receive JobKeeper alone.

          The unemployment situation in the US is astonishing - more out of work than during the GFC.

          A downturn of some description has been on the cards for a while. Economy barely ticking along, interest rates at record lows, population growth keeping us out of recession - there will not be large numbers of new arrivals for quite sometime.

          Honestly, I’m still investing, I invest at the same time monthly regardless of what the market is doing. I only took issue with the claim we’ve seen the worst of this.

        • +2

          it takes months before the economy feels the full brunt of it. right now it's first immediate casualties. i can't say where things will go but i describe it like the 5 stages of grief. we've had the first one already. we're likely in a long "bargaining" stage where the market tries to feel out optimism but isn't sure heh.

  • It's definitely worth considering, but it isn't for the faint hearted.

    Two ways you could go:

    -Buy some rock solid consumer staple stock - they will be the least impacted. However, don't expect sexy returns in the short term

    -Have a crack at predicting markets that will rebound quickly after covid. As an example, I'm pretty confident that betting agencies will rebound as soon as live sport comes back. Demand is relatively inelastic, quantum of bets will be down but the money will still flow.

    Note that the later strategy is educated gambling. And you would want to have a good grasp on how to get read financial reports. If that's daunting, stick with strategy 1 and sit on the shares for 20 years - you'll likely be happy with the investment in the long term.

    • Why do you think gambling industry is going to bounce back quickly when people have just lost a lot of investment/employment? I would have thought that gambling would be given a second thought after an economic downturn.

      • +2

        Addictions, inelastic demand means people do it whether they can technically afford to or not.

        • +1

          I would never want to profit of people's addiction by supporting this industry. Casino's profiteering is whitewashed by saying they combat gambling addiction.

          • @[Deactivated]: I feel a bit the same regarding gambling, but I also don't endorse prohibition purely because it doesn't work.

            There's the system that ensures big casinos rather than many small business casinos, which I see as dysfunctional capitalism moving money solely from poor people to a few rich people.

            Everyone has their vice. People can buy bad food to excess so why not allow gambling etc. But is that just an addict reaching for excuses to gamble?

            I understand statistics too well to be a gambler anyway.

  • Took 10 years for the market to recover from pre-GFC high to pre-CV19 high. (5000)

    • +1

      It took 5.5 years including dividends (November 2007 was pre GFC peak, it was back there in May 2013 - Google "All ords accumulation index")

  • hello please allow my two pence. I was looking at a demonstration of the commsec app.
    you can buy units in a share backed fund for about twenty dollars per unit. so you pick a fund and buy as many units as you want each time.
    the best bit that its tw0 dollars commission and you probably don't even need to open a broking account !

    • +6

      Don't use Commsec. They're a bunch of losers, they charge you a lot and will let you down later.

      Try supporting other businesses rather than banks. I'm not sure how many are in Australia but IG, selfwealth are a couple.

      • He seems to be talking about Commsec Pocket with the $2 investment fee.

        Commsec do charge a lot, Commsec Pocket has a $2 brokerage fee… which can be considered to be expensive if someone is investing for example $50 at a time which some people might do.

  • +2

    Only buy with money you can afford to lose and you are not going to stay up at night if it is down 10% or potentially down 50%. It is both possible.

  • +2

    Fact is no one has a crystal ball otherwise they would not be hunting bargains.

    Studying history shows that the market always recovers given enough time. So the question you ask is how long of a horizon can you wait until you need access to that money. The longer the more likely you can ride out further market downturns.

    A good strategy to learn and study is the dollar cost averaging method. Happy to expand on DCA if you want.

    • If you have time I would be interested in DCA methods. Cheers.

      • +6

        In dollar cost averaging consistency is key. At its simplest it is a strategy where an individual buys into a company or index at regular intervals with the same amount of money each time. Almost like a savings account. This way when the share price goes down you buy more of the shares and when it goes up you buy less shares but you would have spent the same amount each time. Your cost base therefore is the average unit price at each interval.

        This removes the emotion from investing and does not need you to try and time the market which is impossible. A large scale version of DCA is how superannuation works - money goes in every pay packet into a predefined investment strategy no matter the market condition.

        Applying this strategy to the current market, if the share market were to fall from here and as you DCA into the market you will buy more and more shares (with the same amount of money) and when it does rise again you start buying less shares. The net effect of this is that you would have more cheap shares and less expensive shares - likely giving you a lower average cost per share. Again this avoids the anxiety of investing a lump sum amount now only to have the market pull back again.

        *a caveat to this is the more frequent your buying the more brokerage you pay so it is worth investing an amount that makes the fee insignificant.

  • +5

    Dangerous time to buy.

    Current relief rally to recover 50% of loss was due to stimulus and then first signs that Covid19 might be under control.
    I expect falls to recommence after Easter to a new low. Because positivity of the above wears off and reality sinks in of crap situation the world will be in for a while.
    Then a repeated saw tooth pattern of big rise followed by big fall as good then bad news follows repeatedly.
    Then in September October, that particular fall of the saw tooth pattern keeps going down to a capitulation new low due to a yet to be known really bad news (may be economic or political). A Cyprus style but global currency reset may unfold eventually to cover unpayable sovereign debits.
    Then a gradual recovery of one third of total losses from October to December as preventative and curative treatments (by then) now prevent many deaths and vaccine is on foreseeable horizon.

    Dangerous time to buy just now.
    That's my take on the situation.
    I may be totally wrong. It may be a V shaped recovery that we are already in. But I don't think so. Cash is king for now.

  • +2

    Focus your attention on the unemployment disaster unfolding in the US.

    I don't think the gravity of the world wide financial situation has set in yet.

  • +2

    I would be very careful entering this market. Even if the virus is conquered in the next few weeks there is a huge amount of pain to come. By all means invest, but don't expect an easy fast buck. I am certainly buying select stocks, but am doing so with multi year outlook. If you are unsure where to invest then look at index funds. Keep in mind though we were at record highs prior to Covid so the fall so far looks a lot worse than it really was and has potential for greater drops or very long drawn out recovery period.

  • +4

    I want to know where OP is getting 2.5% on savings. A piece of that action would be good right now.

    • Macquarie and amp were offering 2.64 percent

  • +2

    During the last GFC, i invested a lot in the sharemarket but with a mistake: margin loan. I got margin calls a few times to the point I was required to sell my large cap stocks at loss. These large cap shares prices are still 3x (MQG) to 10x (CSL) as of today, compared to their prices back then.

    For 8 years 2011-2019, i stayed out of the market and missed a lot of growth potential from those large caps. Although i was fortunate enough to benefit from my Sydney house that i had bought in 2008 and sold in 2017 for more than double.

    Last month, i re-entered and cautiously (for large caps) & speculatively (small caps with good balance sheet numbers & cash reserve) bought 15 different shares in the last 2 weeks that have dropped a lot due to the Covid19. Mostly bought when the market dropped sharply (SCG, WEB, FLT, OML). And OML went up a lot the day after i bought it, when a rival advertising company increased their holding, having failed a takeover bid in the past.

    I am not buying defensive shares that are still relatively expensive and have not dropped much (WES, COL, CSL, BHP, FMG, RIO and some more). May be good for those desperate for income > interest rate.

    And i will continue buying in the next few months with a very long term view of at least 5 years.

    PS: Read their financials and try to make sense of whats happening. I dont play trading charts where these ppl are pretty much gambling.

    • margin loan.

      Ouch. It takes brass stones to play that game.

      • nah! just gotten ensure you have the liquidity for a crash or staying well away from your margin limits.

    • Marginal loans are probably a level a of risk too high for me but i credit anyone who has the stones too do it.

      • +1

        Definitely not the game to play in a volatile market

        • Well essentially in this market youre gambling but I would say it is better odds then you would get a Crown Casion

    • +2

      so many wrong turns past and present.

  • +1

    You may want to research dollar cost average vs lump sum.

    Raiz, commsec pocket or spaceship voyager. I haven't used these products so I can't comment on them but I've seen them mentioned in finance forums and no one has mentioned them here so far. So just added them here for further information and for you to research.

  • +3

    Becareful. There's been a lot of dilutive capital raisings lately. A number of companies have had to issue a lot of new shares, to finance losses or debt repayments during the shutdown. The implication of this is that if ownership of a business is divided into more shares, each share is worth less than before. In simple terms, even if businesses valuations return to pre-crisis highs, if this value is divided by a larger number of shares than before, the per share value will be less than pre-crisis highs. The pathway to return to XJO above 7000 in the short term is not straightforward.

  • Just like property if you are looking long term the market is usually a good investment - as a general rule i stick with EFTs or LIC

    Full disclosure ATM im buying VAS at the moment but IOZ is pretty good too or AFI

    This isnt financial advice DYOR

    • A200 has a MER of 0.07% Vs 0.1% and 0.09% for VAS and IOZ respectively.

      • +1

        So many TLAs right now.

  • +2

    It depends. If you are willing to invest only 15-20% of your savings and you are willing to wait for 4-5 years, then yes, it is a good time to invest into the share market provided that you pick blue chips that are likely to survive the crisis.

    However, if you are thinking of investing more than that and/or expecting a return in the short/medium time period - it is better to stay away.

  • +2

    You only make money on share market by being a contrarian. More people need to sell when you buy, and more need to buy when you sell.

    So take every advice here and do the opposite.
    Then whatever happens you will be ontop of everest with your wealth or at the bottom of the ocean with debt come this point next year.

  • Crypto is up 50% from the recent crash, always rebounds harder and faster than equity

    • +3

      It also crashes harder and faster than equity.

  • +6

    What is interesting was around the "bottom" of the 22 march bull rally / dead cat bounce. There were TON of small volume trades.
    Thinking, so much "n00b" money driving up the market.. See Google Trend. lol

    https://imgur.com/YbTXfpf

    • I wonder who else is part of this rally apart from new investors. Would it be day traders and people with a short term outlook?

      • +1

        I doubt it. If anything, day traders would have still been on reverse indexes / shorts.
        Other culprit is RBA. The week before I believe they injected something like 9 Billion into the banks to up float them. Encouraging - baiting in "new" investors

  • +5

    I would probably hold off as a few days ago I made a substantial investment (by my standards) into an ETF (VDHG) and if the past is anything to go by that means markets are about to have a major collapse.

    • Is vdhg a good buy now? Or to be safe wait until pandemic gone?

      • How the hell can anyone here (or anyone anywhere!) answer that.

      • +2

        Well, it's a lot cheaper than it was 6 weeks ago :)

        I am planning on adding to the holding every 2 months indefinitely so at least if it falls further I will be averaging down.

  • +1

    I'm buying right now - and buying on margin at that. Fixed amount each week for the next 12 months until I've reached the level of margin utilisation that I've decided is appropriate for my risk tolerance.

    I was buying last year. And several years before that. And I'll be buying 1, 5 and maybe still 10 years from now.

    If your horizon is less than 10 years, the stock market is not where you should be.

    Did the market keep falling after a relief rally during the last crash? Sure did. After the 1929 crash? Definitely did. Will it do the same this time? Maybe. You can't predict the future, but be assured all the "smart money" is just as aware as you that relief rallies are often followed by another crash. You don't have any unique insight there.

    It's not stopping them apparently, and me neither. Ultimately it doesn't matter if you're buying on the way down or the way up - you're paying the same price. Matters even less if you're dollar-cost-averaging over a lengthy period as others have pointed out.

    The advantage right now is that: 1) Margin suddenly became very cheap, 2) Where else are you going to put your money?

  • +2

    a recession usually bottoms 1 year after its trigger event.

    • ^^ This.
      Usually people fail to understand that the market is a beast. Huge one.
      It takes time to settle down for stability.

  • +3

    Dont listen to all the naysayers and noobies who dont understand how world economics work, you better buy now because every single government in the world is printing money like crazy to try and prevent a prolonged recession. By doing this, the value of cash depreciates and the value of tangible assets like stocks go up even though they are not making money. That is how hyperinflation begins. In a rare hyperinflation scenario, your cash will be worthless and only stocks, real estate and gold will hold their true value.

    • Thought it played out the opposite way in the 1970's? High inflation back then led to high interest rates, which is bad for stocks. Wouldn't interest rates rise this time too, if inflation proved unexpectedly high?

      • 1970s was because of the Bretton Woods cancellation. The central banks weren’t pumping trillions of dollars and buying corporate bonds on the open market like they are right now. Don’t fight the Fed.

        • I don't know, it just seems like it's ignoring the risk of high interest rates on our indebted blue chips. A lot of top ASX200 companies have taken on a lot of debt to take advantage of low interest rates. I'm not sure how they can take, for example, double digit inflation and interest rates.

    • It is half true. As long as a government has enough amount of US$ backed it should be fine (but US$ run is another story and US and AU policymakers afraid of this so they established "currency swaps").
      All governments are tightly managing the injected money - as long as it is not leaked to the real economy it should be fine.
      If I remember correctly, only less than 10 countries got "currency swaps" from the US. So other countries, who didn't have, may face hyperinflation if they print cash and start a similar policy.

      But like you mentioned, I believe(yes this is just my belief) that safe assets are better for a while (i.e., US$, US treasury bonds, gold, etc - stocks have no place here).

    • I heard that in 2009 after QE1 QE2 etc, and what did we see? No inflation…..

      • 2009 - total package = Fed $800b purchase of long term treasuries

        2020 - total package (might be more) = $2t stimulus by government + Fed unlimited purchase of assets including corporate bonds (QE infinity)

    • +1

      True, and hyper-inflation was one of the reasons Germany was broke after WW1. That's why the Nazis invaded other countries for their gold. It's what kick started their whole economy….

  • +7

    Recent rebound is due to new investors like yourself flooding the market, hoping to pick up a "bargain". My friend working at CommSec said they are getting 3-5000 new applications per day at the moment. Once this money dries up, expect the market to fall again because the major investors are all bearish. Once the "new" investors lose hope and sell (swearing never to touch the share market again), there will be a new crash exactly like what happened in 2007-2008. After that we'll hopefully see the bottom.

    • I've got 15 free trades (i.e. due to 3 new signups) on Selfwealth the past month. That's assuming that people are signing up on OzBargain, and with the amount of referral codes (there must be at least a couple of hundred on OzBargain) the chance of me getting 3 referrals in a month must be slim so sign ups to Selfwealth must be strong.

      Also their latest investor presentation showed that more people were signing up and trading recently. I do agree that the bounce is due to new investors entering the market. It is way too early for the market to be recovering. It could be due to newbies believing China's numbers (which IMO have to be fake knowing the CPC). NY is getting smashed by the virus and it's going wreak havoc in the US from the stories I've read. There's no way this isn't a dead cat bounce.

      I'm also shocked that US shares have recovered in the past couple of weeks considering that it's just starting to pick up in the US.

      • I'm not so shocked. Fear is being replaced with reason as they better understand the economic impact. Don't forget it is still well down with pre crash levels, and fear is often overstated compared to reason. Really what people are trying to price in is how long and at what impact. They realise it will end, and it doesn't make sense a 100b company suddenly is only worth 50b due to 6 bad months (assuming a decent balance sheet).

        • +1

          Problem is, the shares that have cratered are the very ones having balance sheet problems. They're the ones doing highly dilutive capital raisings, in some cases 1:1 - ie. doubling their shares outstanding. If a $100b company has 1b shares before the crisis, but 2b shares outstanding after, then even if the business' value remains $100b, each share is only worth half as much. The quality names like CSL, Woolworths have barely dropped (and are actually still up a lot year on year). That's why I think there's a very low chance that ASX200 is going back to anywhere near its all time highs anytime soon.

  • Only buy what you can afford to lose seems to be the gist of alot of views here. On this basis, have also invested some into large and mid caps recently. Potential for gains/losses aside, gives me something to do/watch during all this iso time!

  • +1

    Read into silver and gold bullion. Now is a killer time to buy silver.

    That is all.

  • Your idea is a good idea, if your not after a ‘quick win’

  • +3

    My best advice is to not go to ozbargain for this sort of advice. Go to an investing forum. Nobody is really answering your question, just giving their theory on the current state of the stock market.

    The correct answer will depend on whether you need access to your savings. If you don't, 2.5% is a terrible return. You're much better investing it in high yield stocks which are paying around 5-6%.

    If you do need access to your money however, then the share market is a risky place to put it, especially with the current market volatility.

    Don't use an investment firm, if you want to set and forget, just invest it in a low fee ETF. Vanguard is good. Its as easy as getting a stock broking account, typing in the ETF code, and how many shares you want and hitting submit.

    In regards to capital gains tax, shares are taxed at as income, but they receive a 50% discount if you hold them for more than 12 months. So if you are on a 32.5% tax bracket for example, and then you sell, you will pay 32.5% tax on any profits if you sell within 12 months, or 16.25% if you sell after 12 months. (Nb. I am not a financial advisor, speak to your financial advisor blah blah blah.)

    • +2

      Why not just stop after your first sentence?

    • Thanks for your comment, I appreciate the effort !

  • -1

    People who say it took 10 years or longer to recover from 1929. Well they simply haven't factored WW2 into that. If there is no World War after Covid19 shouldn't the stock market get on track quicker since a lot of institutions will not need rebuilding, rehiring and retraining?

    Just cloud talk here before you get angry and write me a full essay. Would like to hear some valid points to discuss this from all minds.

    • +4

      This is so incredibly uneducated, WW2 was the main reason the stock market grew and got the economy out of the great depression. Do yourself a favour and read up on how wars stimulate the global economy at unprecedented levels.

      • -4

        So you're saying we need a WW3? Maybe the World can fight America following Tump's re-election?

  • +1

    You should invest in ICO's and tokens, like the people from 2017-2018. They drive Lambo's now.

  • Boring, but I would reccomend learning the basics. Look up paper investing and options. Paper investing is just pretending to buy shares. Then tracking this over time. Options are complicated, but probably one of the more important topics.

  • Get ready to buy when this hits other markets.
    https://apple.news/ARgmqXFmjR1CsxhaxdwwJkg

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