What is everyone's thoughts on 2020 snow season ? Will it go ahead?
I've booked accommodation in late August around November last year for 2020's snow season. Should I cancel it ?
2020 Snow Season - Will It Go Ahead?
Limegreen on 13/05/2020 - 10:27
Last edited 13/05/2020 - 10:53 by 1 other user
Last edited 13/05/2020 - 10:53 by 1 other user
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There should be a poll for this very important issue.
I hope we don't get snowed under with replies.
Two major sources of variation in Aussie snowfall, the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), are aligning nicely for the season ahead. The ENSO is likely to remain neutral, while the IOD should become negative sometime during July or August. At present, waters across the tropical Pacific are on the warm side of a neutral ENSO, but central and eastern areas are expected to gradually cool through winter. Although the majority of models keep ENSO within neutral bounds, a number of models suggest we could reach La Nina thresholds during spring. Coupled with a negative phase of the IOD, a La Nina would give us that elusive royal flush, providing the best chance for a heavy snow season. The next best thing though, is when we combine a neutral ENSO with a negative IOD. On average these years pump out a peak snow depth of 234.3cm at Spencer’s Creek. Compared to the overall average of about 195cm, we’re looking good indeed. Negative IOD events increase the likelihood of above average precipitation in the Australian Alps by feeding extra moisture from the Indian Ocean into approaching fronts. More precipitation usually means more snow, and there is good agreement between climate models as well as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) that precipitation is likely to be above average this season. While precipitation is strongly correlated to snowfall, it does beg the question of whether we’ll also cop a lot of rain. This largely comes down to temperatures. Fortunately climate models don’t favour a warm winter, which would leave us soggy and snowless, but they also don’t favour it to be colder either. Average temperatures coupled with high precipitation would likely mean we would just see more storms where warm temps and a heap of rain will precede cold air and snow. More frequent and/or stronger storms are what we usually expect during seasons with a neutral ENSO and a negative IOD, as these tend to result in lower pressure anomalies stretching over southern Australia and New Zealand. Although some individual models suggest this may be the case, the model consensus doesn’t necessarily support this pressure pattern. Most models do, however, place low-pressure anomalies over the Indian Ocean and Indonesia, with some also extending them over much of Australia. While this may mean the Southern Ocean doesn’t cough up more storms than it usually does, the moisture feed coming from these warmer climes may intensify approaching systems and help break down that perennial belt of high pressure that sits over Australia, thus allowing storms easier access to the Aussie Alps when they do show up.
Will you be able to visit the resorts in late August; don't know.
Asking us should be the last resort
When there's snow other option?
Snowflakes chance in hell, I think.
So you're telling me there's a chance..
Icy what you did there, very funny.
I get your drift, these comments have gone downhill
Lots of crystal ball questions this week on OzBargain.
If only there was a sale on them.
Will there be more?
I wouldn't cancel it. Pretty good chance that the season will go ahead and as a bonus it might not be so busy. I'd wait for the resort to cancel it on you if anything.
They might get the lifts operating etc, the bars, restaurants being open might be a bigger issue. However, our PM is claiming we should be open by July so full steam ahead.
However, our PM doesn't make the decision; each state does.
Thank goodness for that. If he was as in-charge as people think he is, we'd still be going to the footy every weekend (except for those of us already dead).
Yeah, but saying that certainly puts pressure on the states to get onboard, doesn’t it? Push the states to go fast then blame them if it goes pear shaped.
Nope, the National Cabinet is dominated by the states and they have overridden the PM on a few things apparently.
I think the states also have the constitution to support them.Most of the players have kept politics out of it, but it is becoming more attention-grabbing and finger-pointing now.
@GG57: Nice idea, but a little bit of Google will show the pressure the Feds have put on Andrews for wanting a few more days to look at the data. However, we have certainly done better, at both levels, than a lot of other countries. The next few months are going to be interesting, for everyone.
I'm fairly sure the resorts will be open by August. I just hope that the silly Victorian rule of not being able to stay at the resort overnight is lifted otherwise it's going to be a heap of day trips.
Forcing people to take day trips wouldn't be ideal. Not an easy drive after a day up a mountain.
I don't think anyone will be forcing people to take day trips.
No, but with no other option of getting a snow fix anytime soon I would consider the risk.
There's an old saying in the clan of my foremothers that goes: "Snow is like men. You never know when it's gonna come, how many inches you're gonna get or how long it's gonna last…" It gets passed down from mothers to daughters to daughters.
I hope this helps.
Shouldn't you ask this to the resort? What matters what we think?