Anyone Think House Prices Will Begin Falling?

Boogerman on 02/04/2021 - 09:05
Last edited 09/04/2021 - 13:50

I’m going to be contrarian
Mortgage moratoriums are over, Jobkeeper is over, Rental eviction moratoriums are over, Business rent payment deferments are over.
Rental vacancy rates in Melbourne & Sydney are at their highest in many years (Melbourne over 6%)
FOMO occurred due to the Liberal Party socialist handouts creating a false economy (while racking up both the biggest budget deficits & national debts in history). That false economy is now exposed

Evictions ramping up with worse to come, tenants groups warn
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/evictions-rampin…

So, not sure where all this demand is coming from

Home & Garden

Comments

  • [Deactivated] on 03/04/2021 - 23:00

    No matter how much the house prices rise, if the wages don't rise then the rents won't rise and that caps the returns on housing overall. If renting is cheaper than buying then it makes no sense going into a massive debt.

    • RecklessMonkeys on 03/04/2021 - 23:20
      +3

      But what if the banks pay you to borrow money? :)

      • netjock on 05/04/2021 - 23:14

        Other fools are paying you to borrow money.

        If the banks pay us to borrow money then we pay $2m for a $1.9m property as we expect the bank to pay the other $0.1m.

        Who is the fool who will pay more than $1.9m? Negative interest rates would mean negative equity should it not?

        • RecklessMonkeys on 06/04/2021 - 12:09

          I said that tongue in cheek, but who knows what's next?
          If the bank paid you to borrow then your $1.9m example would mean that you pay $1.8 and the bank pays $.1m
          Being an intermediary, the bank could only do that if the depositors were paying to deposit; ie negative interest rates.
          If you hold cash in your superannuation, you may see that this is already happening.

          • netjock on 06/04/2021 - 12:22

            @RecklessMonkeys: You would have to come up with the $1.9m first. In which world would the bank let you walk away if you can't afford the repayments and they are stuck with a $1.8m asset that they tipped $0.1m into just last year? You need to read up on how negative bank interest rates work.

            It is like putting $1.9m on deposit and then getting $1.8m when you withdraw.

            If you hold cash in your superannuation, you may see that this is already happening.

            You are talking about time value of money due to inflation. It is very much different to negative interest rates. At least in 10 years you still have the $10 you put in there but negative interest rates means you have less than $10 in 10 years probably a lot less.

            Through this conversation I'd hate to think people have misunderstanding of how negative interest rates work because the housing market will get a lot more crazy.

            • RecklessMonkeys on 06/04/2021 - 16:47

              @netjock: No, I'm saying that super funds being are offered negative rates on cash. This is happening right now. I don't blame you for not believing me, but its true. It's insane.

              Whether the banks end up offering negative rate loans was, as I said, tongue in cheek.

    • duchy on 04/04/2021 - 14:07

      Rents are not that much dependent on wages. Vacancy rate is pretty good indicator.

      People in Brisbane North are fighting over rentals (house vacancies 0.5%). This creates massive push on rents.

      • netjock on 06/04/2021 - 12:22

        But there is still an upper limit. You can't pay rent with money that you don't have.

        • croseks on 07/04/2021 - 08:19

          There is always a cheaper suburb somewhere, rents increase and people get priced out, rents won’t stop because Harry’s income can’t support it.

          • netjock on 07/04/2021 - 13:58

            @croseks: If house prices double again in 7 years and yield stays the same I'd doubt many people are doubling their salary considering pay rises are less than 2%.

            What people aren't getting and I have stated numerous times is drop in interest rates should be a windfall not spend more. You'll see 30% off on Ozbargain for an item, people might buy one for themselves but they don't buy 3 because it is the price of 2. Houses is a different matter, people would like to use up what they have left. No buffers.

            Pity interest rates are outside of their control, so it is almost like gambling. Rates have probably hit rock bottom therefore you've reached the limits, people are just hitting the limits on equity.

  • tessel on 03/04/2021 - 23:24

    No.

  • capslock on 03/04/2021 - 23:32
    +2

    The madness will stop and house prices will eventually fall. Most people will not see it coming but when it does happen watch the media and the property experts announce that the boom is over and prices will now fall or stagnate. Sellers will then flood the market hoping to cash in before its too late.

    • OzFrugie on 04/04/2021 - 01:13
      +4

      No doubt it will eventually stop. I mean how can it go forever esp with stagnant wage growth?!
      In saying that, syd n melb market though have been pretty much boomed since 2013 with only 1.5 yrs of slow market between 2018 and half of 2019.
      I didnt count covid here due to the black swan event nature of it and if anything covid actually made the market gone even crazier!
      Even in that 1.5 period, it was due to apra intervention and sentiment gone worse due to RC and potential Labor win.

      I have been hearing property spruikers saying about the current boom just starts and will continue due to demands from expats (offsetting immigration), and when the border is trully opened again, demand will be higher. I think some people started to price this in since the vaccine news came out in nov, which coincided with rba cutting rate further and announced QE.

      Yes it will stop but probably not in short term at least unless the end of stimulus, jobkeeper, homebuilder etc have a material impact on the market (doubt it). If anything it will slow down a bit, then pick up again when immigration is trully back on.
      The question for many ppl who have been wanting to have a property is whether they will keep waiting until the mania slow down or stagnant or even drop, or get in asap on the train.. im guessing for many of them is the latter, hence the fomo…

    • qwijibo on 04/04/2021 - 02:01
      +5

      People have been saying "the house price madness will stop soon and housing will correct" for at least 30+ years that I can remember - probably longer than that.

      It just won't happen.

      Both the RBA and the Fed Government are determined to never let the property market deflate. They will pump stimulus into it, crank up immigration, drop borrowing standards, whatever it takes to keep kicking the can down the road another 25 to 50 years. The RBA even considered asking the Fed Govt to shut down the real estate market during covid, because they feared a "crash" of 15%. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-18/reserve-bank-consider…

      One possibility is they crank net migration up to make sure the market keeps going up - apparently there are rumours in Canberra of an increase in the migration rate to compensate for the covid downturn - 500K would be an easy bump, but I'd suspect that a "nation building" increase to 1 million/year would no longer be considered outlandish.

      Another option is to continue to devalue the currency via continued cash splashes to keep the property market propped up.

      Australia only has mining, agriculture, housing and services to keep the economy ticking along - if housing were to fall, the negative wealth effect would be catastrophic to the services industry (even more so than covid).

      • netjock on 07/04/2021 - 22:34
        +1

        if housing were to fall, the negative wealth effect would be catastrophic to the services industry

        Housing especially established houses maintains almost zero jobs. Most of your money is spent on the land. The land doesn't create any jobs.

        Even if you house price goes to zero you still need a plumber when your toilet breaks unless you got Kevlar butt.

    • AustriaBargain on 04/04/2021 - 02:56

      If incentives only went to newly built houses, reality would set in a lot sooner. It actually costs real money to build a house.

      • netjock on 07/04/2021 - 22:36

        At 2% interest rates negative gearing benefits is almost non existent. People are just clutching at straws now. It is like a stock market that is built on hope (of profits) like the dot com boom.

  • AustriaBargain on 04/04/2021 - 02:54
    +1

    Rising house prices makes people richer so like bitcoin value or GME shares the bubble can last a long time even though a digital coin and a share of Gamestop are actually worth nothing at all. Houses are worth above their utility whatever people think they are worth.

    • netjock on 07/04/2021 - 22:37

      Paper rich unless you cash out. You just hope not everyone cashes out at the same time but then you kick yourself for cashing out and it goes up by another 10% next year.

  • Jalif on 04/04/2021 - 04:32
    -1

    Of course not.
    There a hundreds of thousands of people who've moved back to Australia and need places to live, and many brought money with them.

    • Boogerman on 04/04/2021 - 09:13

      The outflows far outweigh the inflows

  • [Deactivated] on 04/04/2021 - 07:42
    +3

    not even the experts know, so don't kid yourselves and post a 1000word essay here why they will go up or down

    you have no idea, your thoughts are nonsense, they will be wrong, just like the experts

  • mohan76 on 04/04/2021 - 08:08
    +2

    don't expect to fall (correction) more than 5 ~ 10%. most likely it could go into dormant .

    1. Real estate investment for long term. short term changes usually wont effect sentiment .
    2. RBA can't jackup interest rate - most borrowers can't afford 1% interest rise, it could bring whole financial market to its nee.
    3. it's part of capitalism :- slave of debt (with pride)
  • StonedWizard on 04/04/2021 - 11:01

    Cant speak for other states, i could see prices rising in Sydney. Due to low interest rates. Once our borders open up in 12 - 24 months prices will climb again.

    I think A quality stock will always do well. But people will hold off buying less quality places unlike 2017.

  • Ryk on 04/04/2021 - 11:14
    +1

    Insufficient supply of new houses,
    Demand fed by Government subsidies, and tax breaks
    Low interest rates

    Until these change, prices will not fall.

  • sauce2k on 04/04/2021 - 11:35
    +5

    This question comes up every year.

    Then it’s divided between those who already own a house saying it will go up from here and those who kept waiting for price to drop for the past 15 years.

  • Ottah on 04/04/2021 - 11:35
    +2

    I own few homes in greater Sydney (Campbelltown, Western Sydney) and in Melbourne. My first purchase was in 2015, $477k for a 4 bedroom home. At the time, I felt I overpaid for the house and cringed at the mortgages as I went in a buying spree. Party stopped when APRA came into the scene.

    We purchased a property during the peak of Covid in the outskirts of Melbourne, paying $305k for a half block with a house barely standing. We've renovated so much of the house now but it gives me nightmares thinking how during cold mornings, I had showers outside the house for few months because I had no bathroom. I got up at 4am to have showers so the neighbours wouldn't see me walking around naked in the garden.

    Negative gearing worked for us and it has been helpful for us to get ahead. My tax rate drops to 19c a dollar but someone still has to fork out 81c to a dollar which you'll never get back unless realised, which I don't plan to as we need the income to retire on.

    Do I think properties will go down? No, on the basis of what we've seen from govt during covid period. Houses will continue to go up, it'll have blips along the way to flush out families and people who purchased on a whim and can't stand the when interest rates rising. APRA will continue to manage the banks, RBA will continue to keep an eye on the interest rates against the world economies vs Australia economy, statistics on housing consumption. Scomo will rule for another 4 years ;)

  • KaTst3R on 04/04/2021 - 11:50
    +1

    The government holds too much MBS, they wont let property collapse.

  • Dack Smith on 04/04/2021 - 11:52
    +9

    People taking advantage of dumb banks and historically low interest rates to borrow large amounts and buy houses beyond their ability to repay down the track if interest rates rise.

    The sheer stupidity is astounding, the housing market makes it look like COVID-19 made the economy so much better than it actually is.

    Then when they can’t afford to pay back the mortgage they cry to ACA on TV and soil themselves and believe it’s not fair….

    Australia has become soft and entitled now

    • netjock on 07/04/2021 - 22:40

      Banks aren't dumb.

      It is better for you to borrow $1m at 2.5% ($25k) than it was when you were borrowing $300k at 6.5% ($19.5k).

      Banks borrow from depositors or bond markets at 1% and lend at 2.5%. The 1.5% margin is better at $1m than $300k.

      Who looks dumb now.

  • ImpulseMan on 04/04/2021 - 12:16
    -4

    Economic 101 - what goes up will come down. However no matter what everyone tells you the average price trajectory will be up.

    The key is getting into the market when you can at a level you can afford. Factor in rates going higher in 3-5 years, perhaps 5-6%.

    The longer your locked out for the market the more out of reach it will become. Wage growth cannot keep up…

    • GalacticBacon on 04/04/2021 - 12:59
      +1

      The bank already factors in higher rates, my recent pre-approval was assessed against 5.09%

      • duchy on 04/04/2021 - 14:25
        +1

        100% correct. Thank you for mentioning that. Banks will assess you with their lending rate + 3-4% to be on the safe side. They don’t want you to default on your loan. It’s too much extra work for them.

  • Skinnerr on 04/04/2021 - 13:08

    Can anyone tell me how long my piece of string is?

    • FrugalDealHunter on 04/04/2021 - 13:14
      +1

      10.3 meters

    • RecklessMonkeys on 04/04/2021 - 13:56

      No, but the First String Buyers Grant will ensure you get a good price for it.

  • duchy on 04/04/2021 - 14:16
    +5

    All the people commenting here as if Australia was just Melbourne and Sydney. There are 160 mini cities in Australia. Some will go up and some will be flat and some will go down - even when the market changes and even when the interest rate goes up.

    There is not one ubiquitous property market.

    I think the lending criteria will become more strict thanks to APRA. That might happen maybe next year. There will be markets (Regional + Brisbane and maybe Gold Coast) that will keep going up due to WFH and lifestyle factors.

    Reasoning: There is A LOT of pent up demand from the past 5 years of strict lending. But it will get depleted eventually. Unemployment rate in regions is the lowest in years. There are some really attractive locations out there for buyers.

  • morebunnings on 04/04/2021 - 16:57

    My guess is people on Job Keeper are not looking to buy a house, so I don't think there will be a dip in demand.

    There could possibly be a raise in sellers if people have to sell because Job Keeper stopped, but I dont think that demand would outstrip supply.

    Car & house prices have both shot up. There are now massive chip shortages for computing/console/phone products etc.. because demand is so high in these sectors. I think when borders open up and people start travelling again, or if interest rates go up, we will see a change in the crazy pricing. But until then, what else are people going to buy? Even going out to restaurants at the moment is a PITA.

  • hasher22 on 04/04/2021 - 19:11
    +2

    Short answer: No

    Long answer: Hell no

  • negger on 04/04/2021 - 21:46

    Anything goes up especially not on fundamentals, comes down. To what level and when are question marks.

  • Longtimescroller on 05/04/2021 - 07:26
    +1

    I'd say the current trend is very much driven by built up demand, increased savings, low interest and now fomo underpinned by media hyperbole.

    What will change?
    Well I think sellers will start to think "now is a great time to sell" towards the end of this wave".

    Demand will pullback as people just get priced out

    Interest rates rises will draw closer and then media outlets will start joining the dots.

    So my prediction….

    Fomo growth till September.
    Increased supply during spring
    Moderate growth till 2022
    Correction mid 2022 when interest rates look like they will rise.
    2023-2024 flat.

    But who knows!

  • Brick Tamland on 05/04/2021 - 09:38
    +2

    Even with the current settings (interest rates, FOMO, generous lending) prices can't keep rising at this pace as wages are stagnant so there is a roof to this craziness. Hopefully, with flexible working arrangements it starts pushing people out to regional centres to relieve the sprawl on capital cities.

  • OzHunterNSW on 05/04/2021 - 10:26
    +1

    Get over it… sniff the roses… houses are artificially inflated to convey the perception of worth.

    Why would you buy a dilapidated shack that cost possibly two hundred pounds to build in its day, for one million dollars today?

    You either join the idiots, or place your money elsewhere.

    A lifetime in struggling to pay off your mortgage for a house you don't like

  • usbc activist on 05/04/2021 - 11:05
    +2

    The main cause of Sydney property prices appearing to be going up is the first home buyer benefits carefully designed to push prices up than help first home buyers.
    The only way to get the first home buyer benefits in Sydney is to buy one of the overpriced house and land packages in fringe suburbs.
    The builders carefully price them to get the benefits into their pocket.
    So, the property prices in these frige suburbs are artificially high instead of because of some money generating potential.
    They are taken as bench mark to set the property prices for the non-fringe suburbs.
    While people in non NSW states enjoy buying houses they like, first home buyers in Sydney are restricted to handful of suburbs and mercy of the builders.

    • [Deactivated] on 05/04/2021 - 15:06
      +1

      not to mention the build quality is shit house

      the quality of the amenities in these suburbs is shit house / non existent

      the suburb itself is a cesspool

      the size of the blocks of land are tiny with the house taking up about 90% of the land space

      I'd rather rent than purchase a house like that!

  • zestorer on 05/04/2021 - 11:08
    +3

    Alan Kohler did an article on this a few weeks ago. He reckons house pricing will change in three years when the interest rates start rising. https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2021/03/29/alan-kohler-ho…

  • nurbsenvi on 05/04/2021 - 14:36
    +1

    Who cares?
    If you don’t have a primary place of residence
    Just get one where you can afford.

    Chances are it won’t drop by that much and likely go up.

    But if you don’t have any property and price climbs you are (profanity).

    • ImpulseMan on 05/04/2021 - 16:31
      +7

      Have you noticed it’s just easier for people to bitch and moan. In my experience, the loudest moaners are the ones that don’t like to sacrifice anything but want a house yesterday.

      • nurbsenvi on 06/04/2021 - 02:12
        +4

        Majority of people are plain stupid and uneducated.

        Wtf is 12 years of school for if they don’t teach basic financial skills?

  • Dont Care on 05/04/2021 - 20:34

    Prices won't go down.

  • Boogerman on 05/04/2021 - 23:10

    Interest rates likely to increase

    https://au.finance.yahoo.com/amphtml/news/sign-interest-rate…

  • Dr-StrangeLove on 06/04/2021 - 09:49

    A billion dollar question

  • pogichinoy on 06/04/2021 - 10:21
    +1

    Whilst Sydney isn't London, NYC, Paris, Shanghai, HK, etc, it is Australia's largest city, with the largest economy, beautiful weather, and if you live in a landed property in an ideal location, you can be 30 mins from a national park, beach, etc

    Awesome city!

    • BigBirdy on 06/04/2021 - 10:25
      +1

      You need to get out more

      • pogichinoy on 06/04/2021 - 11:16
        +3

        I've travelled to over 30 countries, worked for 3-6 months in 4 of them, and lived longer term in 3 of them.

        It's nice coming back home to Australia and not having to deal with the cons of other cities.

        • gromit on 06/04/2021 - 16:53
          +3

          each to their own, personally I would put places like Sydney and Melbourne in my "will never live their again" list, congested, dirty and just too busy and yes like you I have travelled all over the world and lived in 2 overseas locations for extended periods for work. Yes it is better than most places in the US but apart from that I can think of dozens of places in Australia I would put before either and 100's if including overseas.

          • Stopback on 07/04/2021 - 09:46

            @gromit: take into the fact we managed the pandemic so well, yeah then syd/melb is way ahead,

            • netjock on 07/04/2021 - 22:43

              @Stopback: That what we all moved here for, just to live through the pandemic. If that is the claim to greatness, god have mercy on us all.

          • netjock on 07/04/2021 - 22:46

            @gromit: I agree. People would never guess why:

            London, NYC, Paris, Shanghai, HK

            Have bigger populations than Sydney or Melbourne (because they are great cities that are magnets for people) not to mention better transport networks, more diversified industries and magnets for the rich.

            I'd personally like to see some middle eastern rich kids come here in the summer and land their gold colour wrapped super cars to cruise around the CBD. Reason why they are not here is it isn't fun.

            Taking a walk around any of those cities maybe with exception of Shanghai and Hong Kong the mix of nationalities. In Australia walk around the cities you might get a few Europeans but it sure isn't a magnet for anything other than Chinese and Indian people.

            • pogichinoy on 07/04/2021 - 23:12

              @netjock: Agree on those points for these cities however with it comes the cons of nomimally higher crime, higher unemployment, etc

              I do love the art scene and shopping is better in said cities. But as my UK friend says here, she doesn't have to worry about pickpockets in Sydney unlike the UK or Europe and not to mention the weather.

        • ImpulseMan on 07/04/2021 - 00:35

          Agree 100% there is no place like our home. We are truly very blessed to live in Australia.

  • pformag on 06/04/2021 - 14:27

    To the moon!

    • bigbadboogieman on 06/04/2021 - 16:51

      Did you forget saying diamond hands 💎🚀💎🚀💎🚀…?
      It's actually true though when market slumps people just hold on with dear life. We faced this issue last year Good properties rarely showed up on the market.

  • diceman99 on 06/04/2021 - 14:34
    +1

    Im not to sure if up or down in the short term. However If they go down, they might go down for a year, then up up up. So you might as well assume they are going up.

    Govt hate prices go down.
    If prices go down, less Tax, Less GST, Less Stamp Duty, Govt has and always will promote higher prices.

  • diceman99 on 06/04/2021 - 14:37
    +2

    House Prices are not going up. Inflation is going up. Or in other words the money you have is losing its purchasing power

    • drprox on 06/04/2021 - 14:57

      I like this point

    • netjock on 06/04/2021 - 18:25

      Or there is no inflation.

      People are just manufacturing it by bidding up the value and buyers need a pay rise to pay for it. People are just running faster on that hamster wheel.

      • diceman99 on 06/04/2021 - 19:59
        +2

        Really.
        Insurance UP
        meat UP
        Cars UP
        commodities UP

        Prices of consumer goods are down, Prices of Assets is up

        • netjock on 07/04/2021 - 22:51

          Insurance UP

          What are you really paying for? Cost to replace your goods. What is the cost of goods consist of? Raw material and labour, did Iron Ore deflate? Probably because labour cost is up. If you were a person why would labour cost go up because you need it to live right.

          meat UP

          Do chickens, cows or pigs ask for increase salary? Or more grass to feed on? No. Cost inflation is rent on land and also labour. You increase cost land, people need increase in price to pay for that land. Animals don't slaughter themselves.

          Cars UP

          That is just people bidding stupid prices for second hand cars, people expectations manufacturing inflation. The cars haven't gotten bigger or any better.

          commodities UP

          Which ones? Like iron ore? $65 to $140 per tonne. Your regular car just went up $75 wow. Big inflationary bump.

        • TEER3X on 08/04/2021 - 10:14

          Meat isn't a consumer good?

          CPI is relatively flat, interest rates will therefore be flat for the foreseeable future.

          Forecasts are for our dollar to appreciate beyond 80US cents per AUD, so this will reduce the price of imports a little.

  • gravel on 06/04/2021 - 21:49
    +3

    I keep reading all this stuff over and over and over again. Assuming you mean the housing market in Sydney and Melbourne, which by the way is not the totality of the market. People do live elsewhere.
    But in those places prices are unlikely to ever fall. That's been the case for decades. Nothing to do with the media. It's pretty simple case of supply and demand and the supply in these locations will almost certainly never keep up with demand.
    Interest rates are low, many people are earning big bucks and a lot of sales are people moving in incremental jumps.
    There are of course markets within markets. In Sydney/Melbourne broadly that means east, south, north and west.
    Prices do dip - for a number of months last year and for six to nine months during the GFC. Go back to the early 90's and that dipped then to.
    But overall the curve is always up.
    I don't believe it's a bubble, increases in prices are significant but not in bubble territory.
    What could the government do:
    Remove NG and CG incentives, these artificially inflate prices
    Stop SMSF's buying residential property for which no tax is paid in the retirement phase up to total assets of 1.6M
    Limit offshore buyer purchases
    Limit immigration ( although it's zip at the moment and prices are still rising)
    Tighten borrowing but this is probably unfair as why should you be limited if you have the funds.
    Build infrastructure to induce business and people to move to outer suburbs.
    Expect this Federal government to do FA to help working people buy property, they don't give a damn.
    At the end of the day there are to many buyers and not enough supply, it's always been the case. Hopefully it will change.

    • ymmf on 06/04/2021 - 23:01

      Sad but true. For someone like me whose job is limited to certain places I feel stuck.

  • Stopback on 07/04/2021 - 09:41

    People on job seeker aren't the types to be buying 800k property, it will be fine.

    Won't crash, but more stablise.

    • drprox on 07/04/2021 - 19:09

      nope it's the business owners who received it all!

  • nightqueen on 07/04/2021 - 11:00
    +2

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/what-s-g…

    Sept 2019 - our RBA governor Phil Lowe

    Wasn’t it the RBA, by keeping interest rates so low for so long, that created the “bubble” in house prices? “It was a contributor,” Lowe concedes, “but not a prime contributor. If you ask any first-year economics student, what’s going to happen to housing prices – we all want to live in fantastic locations by the coast, each person have a large block of land, and under-invest in transport, and allow fast population growth, please explain? I think you’re going to get high housing prices.”

    The solution, he says, lies in this potent insight: “Infrastructure investment is actually the best housing policy.” How so? “There’s very little we can do to increase the supply of well-located land but there’s one thing you can do – build great transport. So we can increase the supply of well-located land through well-designed transport, public and private. If we can do that then the value of the land that each dwelling uses will be less, people will be happier, the community will be stronger, housing prices will be lower relative to income, some of the consequences for the distribution of wealth will be better.”

  • aurotaro on 07/04/2021 - 11:06

    No idea if house prices will ever fall, but what I can be certain is that if and when interest rates rise, those who have over-leveraged beyond their means and left no buffer to cover them for extra repayments will be left out to dry and struggle mentally leading them to making poor decisions.

    We are in an unprecedented low interest rate environment never seen in Australia before, please have savings in hand to cover increasing expenses.

    • OzFrugie on 07/04/2021 - 22:09

      Agree that we all need to have some savings for emergency cash to cover for cloudy days and/or unexpected turns in life.

      Regarding rate increase, I have little doubt it will happen one day in the future but my guess is RBA will keep its promise to keep it as it is now at least until 2024.
      They already said that they wont raise the rate until inflation hits 2 to 3 percent range and/or strong wage growth (these two factors may go hand in hand?).
      If that's the case then, perhaps the extra cost caused by an increase in rate will be partly offset by an increase in income also, so the impact may be more of a soft landing than a hard one from household budget perspective.

      Until then, who knows how much the property prices have gone up by.. may stagnate, to the moon or crash like many people here like to think

      • Punisher on 08/04/2021 - 05:02

        Thing to note is, wage growth is not in same parameter as rate hike. Rate hike of 2 percent in a 1million house mortgage is 20k, that means you need 10% wage increase if you're lucky enough to earn 200k. So nope it will not offset it. Plus the added pressure of inflation which is further pushed up by the wage hike.

        • OzFrugie on 08/04/2021 - 22:45

          I get your point there, however I dont think cash rate will increase to 2% in short period of time as an example once rba thinks there is a strong wage growth.

          Im no economist, but my guess is that once there is indeed a strong wage growth for a sustained period of time (I hope this will be a thing again..), RBA may then think "ok, time to raise the rate" to curb inflation that may come as a result, but they may raise it slowly e.g. 0.1%, 0.25% etc and will stay there for extended period of time.

          Using your example of household income of 200k with 1M mortgage and somehow rate increases by 2%, which means additional 20k pa in interest cost, assuming strong wage growth defined by rba is 3% pa, then if that household gets that every year for 5 years, they will cover the additional interest cost (taking 39% income tax already).
          If strong wage growth defined is 5%, then in 3 years they will cover it.

          Lets say each increment of interest rate hike is 0.25%. To reach 2%, then RBA needs to raise it 8x.
          Using the first assumption above (3% wage growth and 5 yrs to cover extra interest), then on average RBA needs to increase the rate 1.6 times in a year.
          Using second assumption (5% wage growth and 3 yrs to cover extra interest), they need to raise it 2.7 times in a year on average.
          Unlikely but not impossible.

          I have a feeling that central banks will be quite slow to lift rates.. easier to cut than increase it because all the baggage (i.e. debts) that is attached to it…
          But hey Im no economist nor have crystal ball.

  • MoonlapseVertigo on 07/04/2021 - 11:17

    No.

    Going up another 8% in Spring time.

    Demand is high. Everyone who was waiting for a big crash to occur last year because of Covid has caused this spike in demand as FOMO made them all jump into the market in January…scared of missing out. They caused this spike. And they are the ones standing back asking why is property is selling for unforeseen prices. Take a step back and look at the macroeconomic factors.

    Sydney, pretty much avoided major covid deaths and lockdowns like those seen in NY, London, Paris, Mumbai

    Everyone living overseas with cash is doing everything they can to move here and buy their family a house to live in too.

    It's going up and never coming down due to this demand…..and is going to take some major world event to stop the price increases if this one didn't even crack the shell.

    Best of luck

  • WillKillfor5Cents on 07/04/2021 - 11:28

    When everyone is expecting that house prices can't go down, when there are no bears left in the room, that's when the rug is going to get pulled.

    For now? Nah, the bear is still alive. Just watch and wait until all the house bear capitulate, that's when your pile up of cash from dem Crypto life ready to mop up when BOOMERS panic sell.

  • TheMindsetTraveller on 07/04/2021 - 22:40
    -1

    They say if house prices double every 7 years, then I have less than 7 years of work-life left and looking forward to retirement before 50!

    Stick around Covid for a few more years because this government's reckless spending of our taxpayers' money is really propping up this boom under the fallacy of Covid.

    So to those who own houses (and multiple investments), cheers Liberals for making yours and my properties rise 20% this year. Truly amazing!

    • Juice-Wa on 08/04/2021 - 10:10

      You gonna blame the rise in prices of things like graphics cards, cars, pets, workout equipment on the LNP too? Pretty sure they all skyrocketed as well, what if it's rather the unfortunate result of increased demand? It's happened all over the world.

      • TheMindsetTraveller on 08/04/2021 - 11:36

        Now you asked and I thought about it, why not, my opinion is I will blame them too.

        Governments can change your behaviour, believe it or not. Sometimes voluntary, sometimes involuntary.

        Involuntary e.g. you are not allowed to fly out of Australia, WFH if you can, you must stay home, borders are closed etc

        Voluntary e.g. the PM comes onto TV with his advisors etc and says the Covid19 disease is scary AF so do what is right and stay home - repeat, rinse that message at 11 am every day for the last 400 days - and you choose not to go out anymore.

        As a result, this can influence people's behaviours. Stay at home more which means you have more time (and save money). With more time, someone might get a new gaming PC, a home gym a karaoke machine, whatever. Demand is increased due to changes in behaviour. Now on the supply side, manufacturers are not immune from pandemics and some have shut, slowed down etc so production, therefore supply is less.

        Demand up + supply down = higher prices. You already know this.

        Now for cars? Yep, the same concept applies, with travel now a bit more available but domestically, people see driving to a destination as safer than jumping on a plane, coach, train etc. So before you know, it would be nice to get a new car.

        Now back to the stimulus and government, great keep it coming. It is only the taxpayer's money but if it means the economy continues to rocket up and my investments skyrocket, I am all in. Obviously, there will be many unlucky folks out there but if I am not looking after myself, then why the hell am I alive for.

        • Juice-Wa on 08/04/2021 - 14:31

          I'm not sure about your conspiracy theory on using Covid in the deliberate social engineering of increasing specific demands for personal gain. But admittedly there were policies and grants which were abused by many while others fell through the cracks. On that I'd probably blame the people. Take the Covid Supplement for instance, my 30yo sister in law lost her job before covid and when it hit she couldn't be bothered getting another or working. Said she just needed some time to "relax". Now she's back in studies getting student support. There were many stories of those who refused to work because the supplement money was too good. It's honestly the people that abuse the system, it's hard to support those who really need it without there being any loopholes.

  • Juice-Wa on 08/04/2021 - 10:03

    Previous Posts from OP: "Why Do Gen Y & Z Vote LNP?" "Do you blame the poor NBN on the LNP or the millions of people that voted for them?" "Should Voting Be Weighted by Education Field & Level, Age & IQ?". OP is giving strong Separatist vibes. Dude literally commented that "Life experience is indoctrination". OP is a self proclaimed "critical thinker" but it seems political affiliation comes before critical thinking. I'd take anything politically related with a grain of salt.

  • TEER3X on 08/04/2021 - 10:11

    I was wrong about house prices crashing a little, the reason it's going up is partly because of government stimulus but mostly because of extremely cheap money.

  • amos83 on 08/04/2021 - 14:23

    NO. Asset prices only go up unless it is a depreciating asset like automobiles, electronics etc.. i dont think land prices will ever go down giving enough timee… because money printer goes Brrrrr…. you will get cheaper houses but you will have to go further and further from the CDBs…

  • Boogerman on 09/04/2021 - 13:53

    Evictions are ramping up, meaning less demand
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/evictions-rampin…

  • childchance on 23/05/2022 - 09:27

    Visiting this thread a year later, should make another opinion poll for the next 12 months.

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