Is It Worth It to Buy a Petrol Car Right Now? Given EVs and The 2030 Goal etc

katykat on 12/11/2021 - 17:00

I am in the market for a car right now and have set my budget at $30,000 max. It's a huge investment for me and I'm trying to get the best bang for my buck, which is hard due to covid inflation and the chip/stock shortages. Not many deals around and the used market is over inflated.

Given stock levels I probably won't be able to get new until next year so have been looking at close to new used cars from dealers. I've basically narrowed it down to something like a Mitsubishi ASX or a hatch like a Kia Cerato. Both have demo/used 2021 models with 5000ish kms available at my local dealers for just under RRP. Not by much though! :/

A family member pointed out that EVs will only get better in price and petrol cars will lose a lot of value in the near future. Given it's such a huge investment for me and I plan to use it for the next 10+ years, they've basically told me it's not worth the money and I'd be losing $$$ in the long term.

I wanted to get Ozbargain's opinion. I don't know if I can stretch to an EV, but it's got me thinking that it might be the better value prospect. That, or get a shittier car between $10k - $15k and just accept that it's going to be VERY overpriced due to covid inflation. At least then I'm only sending $10k down the drain and not $30k!

Would you buy a new(ish) petrol car atm given all of the buzz and changes being made in the EV sector?

Automotive Electric Vehicle

Comments

    • netjock on 15/11/2021 - 11:38
      +1

      2% of people who can afford an EV by the 98% who cannot

      This will get fixed. Some charity will come to the committee pleading that poor is subsidizing it and a tax will be proposed (just like solar feed in tax that is coming because your connection to the grid was never meant to be 2 way, just one way and poor is paying for the flow backwards. They just never said the poor also get cheap electricity from depressed wholesale prices. Or how it would get them panels on the roof)

      fact that there is no plan to improve the grid to service these implied large number of new EV's by 2030

      Another tax that would be coming.

      $2Bn hole from lost fuel excise

      More taxes.

      Don't want to be peddling conspiracies but I have no doubt the government will always try to corner people into continuing to pay taxes.

  • peterpaoliello on 14/11/2021 - 09:20
    +1

    I'm in the exact same situation, looking at spending about the same on a few year old 4x4.. Our questions are slightly different however, I'm wondering if petrol, diesel, or wait for some kind of hybrid vehicle is the best move forward as I too keep my cars 10 years.

    My thinking was petrol services mostly commuters who are more likely to make the shift to electric

    Diesel is more for industry and they types of vehicles where it's found will be harder to switch to electric.

    End of the day I've elected to put it off as long as possible. I feel the smart option will be instead of going the harder 4x4 is to get something softer which will do the job like a rav4 hybrid, although I just hate all the driving aids and methodology of late model driving assists.

    Perhaps for you also look at a hybrid to retain higher resell in 10 years? Today's hybrid tech will look pretty dated by then however.

    • spackbace on 14/11/2021 - 14:41
      +4

      Diesel 4x4s aren't going anywhere soon, they'll be the last thing that EV replaces due to the requirements (tow, go anywhere, handle extreme climates etc).

      You'd be safe to get that 4x4 now and go out and see this beautiful country

      • Ade99 on 25/11/2021 - 07:51

        Top Gear S31/e2 shows how good EV's are for towing loads in the real World!

  • rektrading on 14/11/2021 - 10:01

    ESG will ensure that new ICE will die off in industrialised countries sooner than people can predict.

    The price of petrol will continue to up to make old ICE more expensive to operate.

  • kaleidoscope on 14/11/2021 - 10:13
    +2

    pointed out that EVs will only get better in price

    They will. But don’t expect that to happen very soon. When you buy a long term investment, account the total expenses for the lifetime of vehicle. I did that when I was looking into a suv and it was very clear that even at 10 year mark the petrol variant + all running costs were still very cheaper than a EV variant.

    In 3-5 years time battery tech will hopefully be lot better with solid state, then perhaps I will consider. Also keep in mind that if you are using a EV for 10 years you wont get much for it with really depreciated battery in it.

    • nephilim on 14/11/2021 - 11:27
      -1

      Outgoing outlander PHEV averaged 3ltr/100km, new 2022 petrol does 13ltr/100km in all Aussie reviews.
      Bir surprised your numbers said electric is worse.

      If your going to buy a SUV that's not electric or hybrid, your throwing away huge amounts of money.

      • brad1-8tsi on 14/11/2021 - 12:20
        +2

        Real life Outlander PHEV fuel usage is quite variable due to <50km range. Often it's more like <35km on the older Outlander PHEV.

        I was going to buy one until I started talking to actual owners and their experience.

  • mrvaluepack on 14/11/2021 - 10:52
    +2

    Not much infrastructure for EVs yet. Not worth it yet.

    • Ade99 on 25/11/2021 - 07:52

      New Ford Ranger available only in ICE………

  • brad1-8tsi on 14/11/2021 - 12:13

    What facts & figures did your family member use to justify their argument?

    Petrol cars aren't going to just suddenly disappear.

    PS: I'd get an ASX

  • drprox on 14/11/2021 - 15:46

    Buy another i30
    Job done

  • Brick Tamland on 14/11/2021 - 17:11
    +1

    Wide spread adoption of EVs are still a very long way away in Australia. EVs are still essentially first gen with very limited body styles. I think you could still safely buy petrol for at least another 10 years.

  • BargainMe on 14/11/2021 - 17:51
    +2

    There are a few new petrol stations popping up around me, that's a good indication that ICE vehicles aren't going anywhere anytime soon

    • Pacify on 15/11/2021 - 19:00
      -1

      Good reason why we need regulation to force the market to shift, free market is garbage at pricing in environmental impacts

  • DrRalph on 14/11/2021 - 19:22
    +3

    Minimum 10 years in Australia before EV dominate the market.

    • JTTheMan on 14/11/2021 - 23:22
      -1

      probably much sooner, I'd say 5 years max.

      • Brick Tamland on 15/11/2021 - 10:19
        +4

        Not trying to sound smart here but I doubt that EV's could 'dominate' the market in 5 years even if brand new ICE car sales were totally banned tomorrow. There is literally only a few EV's on the market that supply like 1.57% of the current market. To go from 1.57% to a dominating figure within 5 years is not realistic.

        • Euphemistic on 15/11/2021 - 10:49
          +1

          Depends how serious we get about climate change.

          There are countries where the proportion of new EVs is significant. There are plenty of models available. Aus is just a backwater and manufacturers are dumping old tech while they can.

          There are plenty of buyers specifically waiting for more choice in EVs but literally can’t buy them.

          • netjock on 15/11/2021 - 11:34
            +2

            @Euphemistic:

            Depends how serious we get about climate change.

            Not very. Wait until the Morrison Steam Car company rolls off the production line their clean coal steam powered car.

            • Euphemistic on 15/11/2021 - 12:06

              @netjock: Yep. ‘We’ arent doing anything but saying some of the right words while Scomo is at the helm.

              Actually, should have said serious about emission reduction. Climate change is contentious. Reducing emissions is just smart.

              • netjock on 15/11/2021 - 12:51

                @Euphemistic:

                Reducing emissions is just smart

                It really isn't hard. Both cars I have driven in the last 20 years have used less than 5L/100kms. If people look around they can find fuel efficient vehicle.

                • Euphemistic on 15/11/2021 - 12:58

                  @netjock: Getting to a point of not using fossil fuels is better.

                  • netjock on 15/11/2021 - 13:03

                    @Euphemistic:

                    Getting to a point of not using fossil fuels is better.

                    Of course but some things are like jet fuel. You just don't have battery powered planes.

                    • Euphemistic on 15/11/2021 - 14:16
                      +1

                      @netjock:

                      You just don't have battery powered planes.

                      Yet.

                      Shipping runs on horrible heavy crude oil uses heaps and creates serious pollution. Funnily enough, they area starting to rethink sailing ships, or at least using it for additional propulsion.

                      Story on the radio this morning about mining companies investing in renewables. They’ve figured the investment will pay off in the long run.

                      • netjock on 15/11/2021 - 14:36

                        @Euphemistic:

                        Shipping runs on horrible heavy crude oil uses heaps and creates serious pollution

                        They could run it on better fuels. It is just cheap to use dirty heavy sulphur diesel. There was an article years ago about putting vertical sails on. It was an idea in the 80s

                    • Ade99 on 25/11/2021 - 07:57

                      @netjock: they do…RR just demonstrated one!

          • Brick Tamland on 15/11/2021 - 14:04

            @Euphemistic: Yes exactly right. The only EVs I actually like are virtually impossible to obtain in Australia. Where can I buy the Honda e? The Hyundai Ioniq 5 is limited to 200 cars initially and still waiting for the Rivian to release.

            Impossible to dominate when it’s still a super niche product in Australia

        • mrvaluepack on 16/11/2021 - 09:20

          100% agree, some people have no sense of the scale of infrastructure and industry that's required to change to accommodate EVs.

          My opinion is it'll take 20 years before we have a 50/50 EV ICE market share.

          • Brick Tamland on 16/11/2021 - 09:28
            +2

            @mrvaluepack: Australians tend to keep their cars for a long time, average of 10 years. Widespread adoption of EV won't occur until it hits price parity of ICE, give that 10 years or so. So in 10 years time when we have price parity there will still be people buying ICE and driving that for 10 years. Give it until 2040 until we start seeing widespread adoption of EV and not even domination of EV. Which is pretty much what you have said too.

        • JTTheMan on 16/11/2021 - 15:34

          I understand your point of view but what I would compare this scenario is the iPhone in 2007/08.

          I remember looking at these touch screen gimmicky things and thinking why would you need that in a phone, yes a good camera is a good idea but the original iPhone 3 only had a 5MP? How wrong was I?

          • Brick Tamland on 16/11/2021 - 18:35

            @JTTheMan: I just cant see that its possible or even sensible to phase in EV's in 5 or even 10 years. Rolling out chargers would be a similar infrastructure project like the NBN and how long did that take? Can the electricity grid even cope? I mean its not even coping with Solar panels feeding back in electricity

            When the iPhone came out it still operated on the same network

            • JTTheMan on 16/11/2021 - 20:11

              @Brick Tamland: I just had a wall charger installed on my 240V home electricity box in a couple of hours. Tesla already has a huge network of superchargers everywhere on the planet. The future is now!

              • Brick Tamland on 17/11/2021 - 09:22

                @JTTheMan: I'd be happy to see a supercharging network dominate in 5 years time. EV charging at every servo would make me think about getting an EV

                • Euphemistic on 17/11/2021 - 09:36
                  +1

                  @Brick Tamland: That shouldn’t be necessary, although makes sense. Unless going on a road trip all your charging should be done at home or a destination eg work or shopping centre. You should virtually never need to go to a servo. Why go and spend half an hour at a servo when you can get a charge while getting groceries.

                  • JTTheMan on 17/11/2021 - 09:42

                    @Euphemistic: Yep, a charger at every servo is unnecessary and shouldn't be a factor in purchasing an EV right now.

                    Maybe, just maybe, when every car on the road is an EV there may be a case for charging servo's everywhere but again that is not needed as you only need to stop and charge for a very long road trip, i.e. >400km. By that time EV's will probably have an even longer range so servo's will become dinosaurs.

                  • Ade99 on 25/11/2021 - 08:00

                    @Euphemistic: Shows that EV's are really only for the local commutes and not doing serious distances!

                    • Euphemistic on 25/11/2021 - 09:43

                      @Ade99: An ev with 400km range and a fast charge for 30-40min at lunchtime would get you about as far as most people want to drive in a day. Driving much more than that in one day is not common for most people.

                      Of course a 10min splash and dash can be done now, but I’d much rather get out and stretch legs for longer on a long drive. And with kids, having half hour out of the car every 2-3hours is almost essential.

              • Euphemistic on 17/11/2021 - 09:39

                @JTTheMan:

                everywhere on the planet.

                If by everywhere you mean only he east coast of Australia.

                • JTTheMan on 17/11/2021 - 09:43
                  -1

                  @Euphemistic: Yes where I live and travel. If I went to any other part of the country I would never drive my car anyway. You are talking about a very niche use case.

                  And I mean everywhere on the planet, just have a look at the Tesla supercharger network https://www.tesla.com/en_AU/supercharger

                  • apsilon on 17/11/2021 - 11:56

                    @JTTheMan: Until they make a long distance amphibious model or a flying one, the only chargers that count for us are the ones in Aust. They've done a reasonable job on the east coast so far but still are no where near matching the number of service stations and really, given how long it takes to charge, they actually need to outnumber servos at least 3 to 1 for mass uptake of EV.

      • ajsr8 on 15/11/2021 - 10:56
        +1

        Yeah 5 years sounds totally unreasonable.

        Will be towards the end of the decade.

      • apsilon on 15/11/2021 - 11:13
        +2

        No way. EV will be about 30% of new car sales by 2030 in Aust. I'd say much closer to 2040 for them to be dominating sales, certainly not 2026.

  • JTTheMan on 14/11/2021 - 19:56
    +1

    Test drive a Tesla then ICE cars will feel like a horse and carriage in comparison!

    • Dogsrule on 15/11/2021 - 10:28
      +2

      Yep. I still can't get over the ferocious yet silent acceleration from my M3, even getting back into our new RAV4 hybrid feels like going back to an old Nokia from an iPhone.

      • mrvaluepack on 16/11/2021 - 09:25

        You do know teslas are considered more expensive and "luxurious" compared to a RAV4?

        Try comparing the vehicles in the same price range like a Tesla S and a Mercedes E-class and you'll find not much difference except you have to wait 30 mins plus to charge up your car.

        • Dogsrule on 16/11/2021 - 10:33
          +1

          More expensive, yes, but only as a function of the new technology. Luxurious? Nah not really. Its nice enough inside, but very spartan, definitely not pitched as a luxury car. I'm specifically talking about the instant power, lack of gear changes and eerie silence coupled with the 3.8s 0-100 time. ICE's don't compare in that respect.

          I'm sure the leather is very nice in the E Class though.

        • JTTheMan on 16/11/2021 - 15:19

          E-class is nice but what I mean is it feels so old-fashioned hearing an engine idle and rev compared to the silent and instant acceleration, it's really chalk and cheese.
          And plugging in when you come home is much more convenient than stopping at a servo and getting ripped off once or twice a week. Plus you don't contribute to the end of humanity which is a bonus! :D

  • DiscoJango on 14/11/2021 - 21:33
    +2

    "It's a huge investment for me…"

    Correction: it will most likely lose you money.

  • serpserpserp on 14/11/2021 - 22:02
    +1

    Seriously just find a cheapo car. I bought a car about 3 years ago now for $1,500 and it has had 1 full service since and it runs fine. It doesn't do huge KMs though (not many people been doing a lot of those since COVID anyway). My other family car would only be worth about 10k now and is about 7.5 years old. Would still be a good option for another 7.5 years. I think you'll find something safe and will last another 5+ years for 10k or under. By then we'll all be looking for EVs to buy.

  • Dogsrule on 15/11/2021 - 09:52
    +3

    In my opinion, the best bang for buck is a Corolla hybrid sedan. Just under $31K D/A, real world 4L/100km fuel consumption, excellent resale value and absolutely bulletproof reliability. It will take care of you for however long you need to wait till EV prices come down to your budget, and you'll only have to change fluids, filters and tyres in the meantime.

  • redvaldez on 15/11/2021 - 11:33
    +1

    In Norway, cars with some kind of electrification make up 90%+ of new car sales, but only make up 12% of total car ownership (see here). In that article, the head of their industry body stated "there will be a good second-hand market for [petrol/diesel] cars for many years.”

    So compare Norway with Australia - particularly, government policy, pricing, and uptake generally - I don't see any threat to the value of petrol vehicles in this decade at least. With the way second hand prices are too, I'd be buying new if you can wait.

    • Pacify on 15/11/2021 - 19:02

      Good luck getting a new car atmo.

      RAV4 hybrids right now is a full year wait time lol

  • Herbse on 15/11/2021 - 11:44

    There are no EV cars for $30k?

    The cheapest is $45k before on road costs from a company known to have poor quality builds, then they range from $55k to $70k.

    Don't worry. With a Liberal government almost guaranteed to be in power for the foreseeable future. Petrol cars will be around for a long time.

    Once we're all burning up, struggling to breath and fighting for clean water, we might see a change in tune. Until then, I wouldn't worry about which car you buy.

  • neonlight on 15/11/2021 - 12:20

    Use a second hand don't buy new as EV vehicles will get popular in 10 years if the elected party does embrace it

    • ajsr8 on 15/11/2021 - 20:13

      Buying second hand is stupid in the current market.

      I've been looking out for one and for the prices they're going for you'd just buy a brand new one.

      • neonlight on 15/11/2021 - 21:06

        Heard long wait for new ones. I guess car owners know there's a huge market for second hand hence prices gone up

      • apsilon on 15/11/2021 - 21:22

        That's the thing, depending on what you want you can't just buy a new one unless you're happy to wait 6 months or more. I just sold a 4.5 year old car for $7k less than I paid for it new. That was the first offer. Probably could've got more if I'd been willing to wait but I was happy enough with that and the ease of it all.

      • R4 on 16/11/2021 - 00:02

        Exactly - and this will be the case for a few more years. Given that used car prices in Australia have always been relatvely high and many new cars come with 5+ year warranties and capped price servicing, it makes sense to buy new - as long as you're buying the right brand/model and not paying too much.

  • R4 on 15/11/2021 - 23:58

    Given the size of Australia and its relatively low population density, there will be markets for both EVs and ICE cars well past 2030. Outside of our major population centres, EVs are impractical and the logistics of using them effectively too difficult. This will change over time - but it will be a long time.

    The price of oil (petrol/diesel) is relatively high at the moment compared to recent years (although way, way off historical highs) - but that can change quickly. Higher prices will mean more investment in oil, which has the effect of driving prices down. The world is awash with energy but as the world comes out of covid 19, distortions in the supply chain are happening and demand out of Asia is huge. Prices really could come down - that's how the market goes.

    Personally, I'd buy another ICE vehicle and wait for the real EV bandwagon to roll into town - which will be somewhere after 2025.

    • netjock on 16/11/2021 - 09:19
      +1

      Yup. Simply put.

      Most people here are arguing at one extreme to another. The idea that it is free charging if you got panels (sure if you want to stay home all day) or free charging at work (you think the company isn't paying rent and extra charges and spreading it amongst cost of employees / clients).

      There is place for both depending on use.

  • DrScavenger on 16/11/2021 - 11:04

    Financially, yes. For some reason we not only don't provide incentives for EV but punish those who buy them.

  • bobolo on 16/11/2021 - 14:03
    +2

    1. Petrol cars will be around longer than you think. Its unrealistic for such a massive shift to EV within the next 10 or even 20 years due to quite simply affordability. Have a look at cars on the road today. Most are between 10 - 20 years old because that's what most people can afford and what most people want to pootle around in. Its not like we're phasing out the CD. Its one of, if not the largest purchase most people make

    2. EV technology in 10 years will be lightyears from where we are now. The dinosaurs today will be simply that - dinosaurs. I cannot forsee current EV's being "classics" since the EV world is so technologically/range focused. In other words, the brand new latest and greatest EV you buy today will be worthless/outdated very quickly. Battery technology will be on another level in both range, recharge time and longevity

    3. Infrastructure. Don't need to say much more. How many charging points there are in cities let alone slightly out of cities vs petrol stations. This will take ages to evolve especially with our highly regulated govt

  • netjock on 25/11/2021 - 09:34

    Not sure what OP is going to do. But for most people the biggest favour you can do right now is buy a Corolla hybrid (current generation). I just hit 3.46L every 100kms driving in the city using E10. At $30k it is $30k cheaper than a Tesla M3 and cuts fuel consumption (and fuel bills).

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