Is It Worth It to Buy a Petrol Car Right Now? Given EVs and The 2030 Goal etc

katykat on 12/11/2021 - 17:00

I am in the market for a car right now and have set my budget at $30,000 max. It's a huge investment for me and I'm trying to get the best bang for my buck, which is hard due to covid inflation and the chip/stock shortages. Not many deals around and the used market is over inflated.

Given stock levels I probably won't be able to get new until next year so have been looking at close to new used cars from dealers. I've basically narrowed it down to something like a Mitsubishi ASX or a hatch like a Kia Cerato. Both have demo/used 2021 models with 5000ish kms available at my local dealers for just under RRP. Not by much though! :/

A family member pointed out that EVs will only get better in price and petrol cars will lose a lot of value in the near future. Given it's such a huge investment for me and I plan to use it for the next 10+ years, they've basically told me it's not worth the money and I'd be losing $$$ in the long term.

I wanted to get Ozbargain's opinion. I don't know if I can stretch to an EV, but it's got me thinking that it might be the better value prospect. That, or get a shittier car between $10k - $15k and just accept that it's going to be VERY overpriced due to covid inflation. At least then I'm only sending $10k down the drain and not $30k!

Would you buy a new(ish) petrol car atm given all of the buzz and changes being made in the EV sector?

Automotive Electric Vehicle

Comments

  • pegaxs on 12/11/2021 - 17:05
    +43

    Keep your current car if it is working, keep your budget and give it a few more years (3 to 5). Keep adding to your savings to up your budget in that time.

    In a few years from now, a lot more manufactures will have electric cars and a few new players will be established in the market. The other thing is there will also be the people rolling over their vehicles they bought now using various state EV incentives, so you will be able to get a decent, if not awesome EV for $35~40k.

    This coupled with the rise in fuel prices means that ROI on EV's is coming down each time fuel goes up. I'm betting that in a few years, fuel will regularly be $2+/litre, so EV's will start chomping big holes in ICE sales.

    • katykat on 12/11/2021 - 17:17
      +21

      I totally would, but my car was written off a few months ago when an idiot slammed into me.

      My perfect little Hyundai i30 didn't stand a chance and, since it was a 2009 model, I didn't get a particularly good payout from the insurer. They were adamant that Redbook was valid and barely budged despite all the covid inflation increasing the replacement cost. I would have kept that car for years if it had lived, but alas.

      • pegaxs on 12/11/2021 - 17:26
        +31

        oh, in that case… buy another i30 and wait.

      • TightG on 13/11/2021 - 23:07
        +14

        If it was market value.. you could have argued with the insurer by giving them examples of same car similar kms/condition.. also if they still didnt budge try financial ombudsman (afca.org.au).

        • Kangal on 14/11/2021 - 17:39
          +12

          ^This.
          Say they can keep all the money, and just give you a new car (one that is used, identical model, condition, KMs, Year, etc etc). That's an argument they cannot wriggle out of.

          • StickMan on 16/11/2021 - 11:25
            -1

            @Kangal: Since when? Even with homes, theres is no default requirement to replace like-for-like. Giving money has always been an option, and will be taken if things are 'difficult'.

      • Ridiculous Panda on 14/11/2021 - 11:21
        +1

        Since when is redbook a marketplace for cars? Yeah market value is the CURRENT market value so that you are not out of pocket.
        I remember a thread here some time back that someone was complaining they paid more for agreed value premium before covid however it was a lesser amount than market value when they got the payout during covid inflation.

      • ankor on 14/11/2021 - 12:26
        +5

        Did you dispute that with the ombudsman?
        They can be adamant all they want but the reality is that the redbook value leaves you out of pocket. That's not right.

        • katykat on 14/11/2021 - 22:00
          +5

          I have been considering it. Part of the problem was that my car was a SR model which was top of the range and also very low kms for it's age. When I looked on Carsales, there weren't many SRs and few with equivalent kms. The one that was comparable was about $3000 more than AAMI offered, but when I showed them the ad, they said it was too old because that car had sold before they made the assessment on my claim. To be clear, it was advertised after my car was damaged and the claim made, but had sold before the assessment of the write off value. They also claimed there was no way to know if it sold for the advertised price, as it was a private seller.

          They were an absolute nightmare to deal with and I was sick of it by the end, so I just accepted it.

          I may end up appealing to the ombudsman. I have collated everything together, I guess I just feel like this is one of those things where the insurer alwasys wins and it might not be worth it.

          • MikeKulls on 15/11/2021 - 22:12
            +2

            @katykat: My sister took Optus to the ombudsmen. She said they instantly changed from rude, dismissive etc into total arse kissing mode

            • Jackson on 16/11/2021 - 08:10
              +1

              @MikeKulls: The insurance ombudsman is hopeless compared to the telco one apparently. I have used the telco one a few times and they are decent. I heard the insurance ombudsman was just rated by choice (if I am not mistaken) as completely ineffectual

      • CBrads4 on 15/11/2021 - 12:37

        How do they work off Redbook? Do they just pull the price off of Redbook and that's their valuation?

        Redbook says my car is worth >$15k (MY08). There is no way my car is worth that much.

      • cashless on 15/11/2021 - 14:38
        +1

        but my car was written off a few months ago when an idiot slammed into me

        And you didn't report it to OzBargain? Shame on you ;)

  • 87percent on 12/11/2021 - 17:06
    +17

    Why don’t you just buy something like a Camry/Corolla and drive that for a few years? EV prices still aren’t really coming down, I think they’re still about 5-7 years away from that happening

    • netjock on 12/11/2021 - 21:06
      +6

      Corolla Hybrid sedan bog standard is $30k. Only 3.5L - 3.8L per every 100kms. Then $10k - $15k saving would run it for like 10 years.

      For those that can't afford an EV and want to do their bit for the environment. Only fuel economy that is better is PHEV but that is you don't run out of battery for EV mode.

      • nikey2k27 on 14/11/2021 - 10:43

        This is what I did

      • Kangal on 14/11/2021 - 17:47
        +1

        Just want to point out, that as the price of oil (and unleaded, diesel, LPG) increase due to both inflation of the dollar and shortages… we will also see a price increase for Electricity.

        Some say price of electricity will go up quicker than oil due to more demand, which means EVs won't really become more economical than ICEVs. Others say Green Energy (Solar, Wind, Hydro, Geothermal) will bridge the gap, so cost of electricity won't go up as much as oil. Which means EVs will get cheaper compared to ownership of ICEVs. Overall, I think nations who transitioned earlier will get a huge benefit and headstart…. unless we begin to de-nuke our military and convert to using Nuclear Energy.

        So we sort of have to take those factors into account, economically speaking.

        • netjock on 14/11/2021 - 23:11

          Which means EVs will get cheaper compared to ownership of ICEVs. Overall, I think nations who transitioned earlier will get a huge benefit and headstart….

          Cheaper? In which way as it stands?

          If you invest $30k and use rule of 72. At say 7% in stock market it will take 10 years to double the money. Some of it might be chipped away due to higher cost of ICEV but I'd suggest that given technology is deflationary (think TVs get better, bigger and cheaper) I'd suggest the $30k saving after costs of ICEV ownership will meet the price of new EVs pretty soon in say 5 years.

          People who buy EVs are not buying it for practical, ecological or financial reasons right now.

          • Kangal on 14/11/2021 - 23:47
            +3

            @netjock: You're complicating the issue with the savings and investment.

            No, I'm simply talking about ownership. I mean the cost of owning an ICE vehicle is cheaper now compared to a BE vehicle. Because the upfront cost for ICE is low, and petrol is relatively "cheap", whilst EV has big upfront cost, and electricity cost is "decent". Not to mention the maintenance cost of both variants.

            When any of the cost of those three factors change (upfront cost, maintenance, fuel), then it will change. For example ;

            (2015 to 2025)
            Purchase Cost: $85k (EV) vs (ICE) $40k
            Fuel costs total: $10k (EV) vs (ICE) $30k
            Maintenance costs: $5k (EV) vs (ICE) $10k
            Total ownership in 10 years: $100k (EV) vs (ICE) $80k

            (2020 to 2030)
            Purchase Cost: $60k (EV) vs (ICE) $50k
            Fuel costs total: $15k (EV) vs (ICE) $40k
            Maintenance costs: $5k (EV) vs (ICE) $10k
            Total ownership in 10 years: $80k (EV) vs (ICE) $100k

            (2025 to 2035) <<— this is me trying to factor in inflation prices
            Purchase Cost: $75k (EV) vs (ICE) $70k
            Fuel costs total: $20k (EV) vs (ICE) $60k
            Maintenance costs: $5k (EV) vs (ICE) $15k
            Total ownership in 10 years: $100k (EV) vs (ICE) $140k

            ….see, as the price of fuel increases as fast/faster than electricity, it becomes more and more expensive to be an ICEV owner compared to a BEV owner. You can play with the figures above, and experiment a little, to understand the point I was trying to make.

            • netjock on 15/11/2021 - 00:01

              @Kangal:

              ….see, as the price of fuel increases as fast/faster than electricity

              You seem to have this certainty that nobody else has.

              You're complicating the issue with the savings and investment.

              It is actually a simpler calculation that yours because you try to predict into the future. I'm talking about if you walked out to buy a Corolla Hybrid Sedan vs Model 3.

              I don't know what kind of car you are expecting to buy but $1k a year for maintenance? Toyota fixed price servicing for first 5 years is like $200 per visit.

              There is also the fuel costs for a Tesla model 3 class car I'd expect 8L (max, Corolla Hybrid sedan is more like 4L) per every 100kms. Average 13k/kms per year at $2 per litre would cost $2k per year. Not sure how you can get $3k a year.

              • Kangal on 15/11/2021 - 00:16
                +2

                @netjock: $2k vs $3k per year in fuel is pretty close, it would depend a lot on the user. BudgetDirect tells me the average Aussie is using about $3.5k per year for fuel, fyi.

                Also, maintenance fees for cars get more expensive. First year might only be a $100 oil/filter change. Second year add tyres. Third year add brakes, coolant etc. Fourth year do oil, filter, tyres etc. Fifth year etc etc. And by the tenth year, you might be approaching the 100,000-150,000km range, and you probably might need a major cost (timing belt, transmission, engine work, new radiator, etc etc).

                For BEVs, maintenance costs are pretty stable: just change wipers, tyres, maybe brakes, and if unlucky service the AC unit.

                Nah, what I put above is more simpler: A / B = (C+D+E) / (F+G+H)
                BEV Total ownership / ICEV Total ownership =
                = (Price New Upfront + Electricity + Maintenance)/(Cost New Purchase + Fuel + Repairs)

                Right now, it is economically not worth getting an BEV for the average person. In the next few years, they will be very competitive. And after 5-10 years, BEV will be more economically viable than ICE vehicle. These are what I'm predicting, and these forecasts depend on the factors stated above.

                • netjock on 15/11/2021 - 10:35
                  -2

                  @Kangal:

                  $2k vs $3k per year in fuel is pretty close

                  If you call 50% increase pretty close. Retiring with $300k and $450k isn't very close type of lifestyle I can tell you.

                  Second year add tyres. Third year add brakes

                  If you drive 13,000kms per year unless you're racing from traffic light to traffic light. I'd suggest you're on the wrong planet. I lasted 60k on a set of OEM Dunlops on a Mazda 3.

                  And by the tenth year, you might be approaching the 100,000-150,000km range, and you probably might need a major cost (timing belt, transmission, engine work, new radiator, etc etc).

                  Don't forget by that time the time value of money. My savings would have doubled and cost of doing these major things would most likely NOT double.

                  I think you've just fallen for the marketing.

                  I'd read this Nissan Leaf review, $24 at public charger for 300km of range or $10 to charge at home Corolla Hybrid would cost $18 (assume 4L/100kms and $2/L fuel cost).

                  • randysal on 15/11/2021 - 13:25

                    @netjock: Everyone's case is different. We have two EVs and at home the charging is free due to solar panels. If you don't count the solar panels the charging cost is around $1000 per year for both vehicles.

                    My girlfriend has a free electric car charger at work, so can drive to work, charge for free for a day and drive around for a week on that charge.

                    We have just sold an electric car, purchased 3 years ago, driven ~20,000km and sold for the same money it was purchased for. Servicing was ~$1,500 for three years including a set of tires.

                    Generally if you shop around electric cars are better.

                    • netjock on 15/11/2021 - 14:07

                      @randysal:

                      We have just sold an electric car, purchased 3 years ago, driven ~20,000km and sold for the same money it was purchased for

                      COVID19 used car prices. I'd suspect it won't happen until the next pandemic. Not going to buy a car betting on having a pandemic in the next 10 years. If you look at the adoption curve, as it is mass adopted economies of scale and supplies will bring prices down.

                      driven ~20,000km and sold for the same money it was purchased for. Servicing was ~$1,500 for three years including a set of tires.

                      Not sure how you managed to go through a set of tyres at 20k/kms. I'd expect 40k/km minimum. Best I've done is 80k/kms on a set (still not at legal minimum thread yet.

                      Generally if you shop around electric cars are better.

                      There isn't too many options. Theory it is better but it depends on which state you live in (solar productions, distanced based charges) and also like you say whether you see you are getting things for free (I would say nothing is ever really free).

                      • randysal on 15/11/2021 - 19:10

                        @netjock: No not because of COVID prices, but because I have shopped around and bought all my cars at a really good price. The current used price situation did help a little, but not much. For example we recently sold a petrol car (just a couple of month prior) and it didn't hold its value at all.

                        This car has skinny tires, to have better range, so the life of the tire is ~30,000 in this case. I bought the car second hand, and the tires were close to due.

                        There are plenty of options, but depends on your situation, of course. Just have to shop around and not be afraid to buy a car interstate. We just bought another electric car (still to arrive in a couple of weeks), but I have found at least tree other options that would have suited us. I agree, you have to spend a bit more on the electric car upfront and it might not suit everyone's needs.

                        Free really mans free. In the case of the car park at work, I believe they have solar on the roof. At home it costs next to nothing to put solar panels on the roof. Where it does get hard is when people live in an apartment.

                        • netjock on 16/11/2021 - 09:02
                          -1

                          @randysal:

                          Free really mans free. In the case of the car park at work, I believe they have solar on the roof. At home it costs next to nothing to put solar panels on the roof. Where it does get hard is when people live in an apartment.

                          Yeah I grow solar panels in my back yard. I got magic beans and threw it on the ground before the rains come.

                          So you sold your electric car to a fool. Don't be on fools coming around twice. Selling a second hand electric car 3 years later for same price as your bought it with skinny tyres.

            • TheMills on 16/11/2021 - 18:18
              +2

              @Kangal: Good examples and figures!
              However, it is missing another important factor - “Resale value” of the car. ICE will hardly have any value whereas EV will still fetch good $$$

              • Kangal on 16/11/2021 - 19:29
                +1

                @TheMills: Yeah, that is a good point.
                I didn't want to include it originally, as it can be very complicated. It is hard to predict accurately what the free-market of Used Car sales will behave in the future. We can make some estimates based on history and logic, but it can get very messy. Especially since certain makes appreciate in-value over time, others remain stable, and most depreciate into oblivion.

                But based on the earliest Tesla Model S, the Lithium Batteries have actually degraded much less/better than we expected. So many were thinking a BEV would be sort of "disposable" every 10-Years due to the battery… but Tesla's saying more like 15-Years, whilst the real-world data is showing more like 20-Years ownership, especially in the newest technology.

                Tesla cars have had many stupid issues (eg door handles, certain sensors, etc etc) but these look like rookie mistakes. And they have slowly been fixing these. So in a 10 Year timeframe you should not expect any repair costs, just a few cheap/basic maintenance. In fact, there's little reason this cannot extend to 20 Years if looked after properly… at which point the car becomes a cheap ($3,000 ?) sell, and the Lithium Battery can be recycled/sold separately ($6,000 ?) reasonably to a specialist. Those figures are adjusted for inflation (~ x3) for 20 years time.

                ICE cars have become high quality in components like Engine and Transmission, if you buy the good models (eg Toyota Corolla). So there won't be major repairs like that. But you still have thousand other modules and moving parts, and that could give you issues. And due to Planned Obsolescence, many cars these days break down earlier, more often, are difficult to repair, and cost more to maintain… these are usually in the electronics/sensors. Cars like BMW are notorious for this. So as time goes on, ICE vehicles require more and more maintenance, big repairs, and difficulty sourcing parts or codes.

                I mention this because it affects demand a lot, and the resale value. A 20 year old BMW with ongoing issues isn't going to sell well. A 20 Year old Toyota has a much better chance if its a cheap option for owners. A 20 Year old BEV will likely be much more popular than either option, since it will likely still have a decent battery capacity (60% ?) left, runs, and requires nothing servicing wise. And for that reason, Elon Musk, doesn't want to sell Tesla vehicles anymore and prefers to have people move to a subscription model, or have a fleet of robo-taxis (unlikely if he's still going to be stubborn and stingy, and not implement a proper LiDar system for autonomous driving mode).

    • Ade99 on 13/11/2021 - 07:37
      -4

      Technology around endurance of the batteries…still effectively using 'AA' batteries….will need to mature as will the infrastructure of recharging points before they take off. Due to distances in Oz, EV's are really only practical for city driving, once you start driving several hundred Km's between major centres, ICE's still win.

    • Nebargains on 14/11/2021 - 06:28
      +4

      EV prices still aren’t really coming down

      Tesla have cut prices on their cars in Australia more than once. If I am not mistaken, start of last year they were like $73k for the standard Model 3, which is now like $59k.

      • randysal on 15/11/2021 - 19:18

        In the US the prices have gone up recently and they finding it hard to keep with demand. I would expect the prices to go up soon.

      • Mysterious Laptop on 15/11/2021 - 22:06

        What if I told you the OP's budget was 30k? Do you even read?

        He obviously meant they're going down but not going down to 30k for another 5-7 years.

        • randysal on 16/11/2021 - 09:26

          Yep, and my comment has nothing to do with $30,000 requirement. In fact if you learn to read carefully, it reinforces the fact that prices are going up and Tesla is not on the cards here.

          However Tesla is not the only electric car available, but all largely depends on the requirements, which we don't really know (apart from $30,000).

    • jrowls on 14/11/2021 - 17:19

      VW ID3 should be here in a year or so at ~40k. That will usurp the MG EV as the cheapest proper EV on the market, and moving into that sub ~40k should start to eat into mid-high trim hatchback and small SUV submarkets.

      • Euphemistic on 15/11/2021 - 06:49
        +3

        No way a VW will be priced less than a Chinese brand. They will want to keep their smug superiority prices.

      • Dogsrule on 15/11/2021 - 09:57
        +2

        Very unlikely the ID3 will be here anytime soon. They are building them as fast as they can to supply the Euro market that actually have legislated CO2 targets that must be met, we'll be getting their ICE cast-offs for a while yet.

    • Jackson on 16/11/2021 - 08:15

      EV prices are coming down, MG ZS EV is on the market for about 40k and has decent reviews mainly. The Nissan Leaf is a mildy better car but has the Achilles heel of a passively cooled battery and used to sell for much more upon release. The model 3 is half the price of a model s new. They are just coming down from a very high base.

      It's true that in a few years they will be a lot cheaper still and there will be a second hand car market, but EV ownership can be done now and still save you money. Look into a Nissan Leaf imported from Japan, you can pick up examples with decent batteries in the 30-40kW range for about 20 to 30k.they will last you ages and save you buckets in petrol and servicing costs, e.g if you keep it 10 years you can save 20k which is potentially the price of the car).

  • deme on 12/11/2021 - 17:09
    +11

    A family member pointed out that EVs will only get better in price and petrol cars will lose a lot of value in the near future. Given it's such a huge investment for me and I plan to use it for the next 10+ years,

    A car is not an investment, it's a tool which /can/ help you earn income.
    A 10 year petrol car will keep working, a 10 year EV will need a battery change.

    • katykat on 12/11/2021 - 17:13
      +21

      Investment may have been the wrong word. I meant more that $30k is a huge amount of money for me and I'm not spending it lightly.

      • ProlapsedHeinous on 14/11/2021 - 02:36
        -5

        is it possible to get a loan for the new car, and keep the 30k in the bank( or invest) to put toward a new ev later on down the road?

        • ds311 on 14/11/2021 - 12:28
          +1

          Good luck earning more investing than the interest rate on a car loan which are typically one of the highest interest loans you can get. This is not a good idea. If you're desperate to get a loan to invest there's much better options like a margin loan or using your home as collateral but I wouldn't recommend these either because if the market goes down you're screwed.

        • Viper8 on 16/11/2021 - 12:00

          Don't ignore his second sentence though.
          Yes ICE cars may begin to depreciate more, whilst EV's hold their value more. However EV's will require significant re-investment for battery pack replacement. I would base your decision on the world we currently live in rather than trying to second guess the future.

    • WowBargain on 12/11/2021 - 17:43
      +17

      10 year EV will need a battery change.

      Ignorance. Tesla Batteries have a claimed rating of 1 million kms before degrading below 80% capacity. Their new 4080 cell packs are rated for 1 million miles.

      A whole lot fewer moving parts in an EV drivetrain vs a petrol drivetrain too. ICE has a much higher chance of catastrophic failure around the 10-20 year mark.

      • FLICKIT on 12/11/2021 - 17:45
        +20

        I hope you're right but:

        "claimed rating"

        Only time will tell, Musk has a reputation for talking things up to be much better than they actually are…

        • WowBargain on 12/11/2021 - 17:47
          -6

          True, but this claim is coming from Tesla Engineers who designed the battery system, not Elon "2 weeks" Musk, so there's a little more validity there.

          I guess there is no way to know until someone does it. There are quite a few original Model S rolling around with 400,000km+ on the original battery.

          • Jerome87 on 13/11/2021 - 10:33
            +6

            @WowBargain: Lol validity.. Imagine a company claiming something they are selling does something great!

            There were falcon taxis with over 1 million kms too. My mates Western star semi has over 2million kms.

            I get what you are saying, EVs are simpler machines and should have greater reliability due to less moving parts, but there is a clear commercial incentive to upsell the long term reliability.

          • x d on 14/11/2021 - 00:45
            +7

            @WowBargain: And yet Tesla is afraid to provide a warranty of more than 160000 km for the battery in the RWD model 3 with 70% retention during that time. Fat chance that it will reach 1000000 km. If it does, it will be with a a recharge at every 100 kms.

          • buckethat on 14/11/2021 - 01:27
            +4

            @WowBargain: The iPhones are the best phone in the world. - Apple Engineers

            Do you see a problem with the above statement? Basically the same argument as yours.. You take 'expert opinion' with a grain of salt when that expert is financially affiliated with the subject matter.

            PS: not hating Apple, just using them as an example.

            • WowBargain on 14/11/2021 - 11:48
              -1

              @buckethat: Except Tesla never claimed their battery was the best in the world? I get what you're saying but I am talking about a quantitative claim not a qualitative claim.

              "iPhones new graphene battery will degrade less than 5% in capacity over 3 years of usage" would be a more accurate comparison.

        • Ade99 on 13/11/2021 - 07:38
          +5

          By the time an EV 'reaches' the claimed number of Km's every one will have forgotten what was claimed…..

      • dcash on 14/11/2021 - 09:14
        -1

        You clearly don't know much about battery chemistry if you think longevity can be based solely on distance travelled. You're also clearly living in la la land if you believe anything Musk says.

        • WowBargain on 14/11/2021 - 11:56
          +6

          I am quite invested in battery R&D so yes I am well aware that a single distance value can't be "the" number - thats exactly why I said that it's just what they claim.

          Point was to counter the previous comment saying battery will conk out after 10 years. Assuming 15,000km/yr travelled, Tesla batteries will certainly theoretically last much longer than your average ICE commuter engine that generally becomes not worth repairing around the 150,000-300,000km range.

          • chartparker on 15/11/2021 - 10:29
            +2

            @WowBargain: Don't forget the newer chemistry in the Standard Range Teslas are now LFP which degrades a lot slower than LI. Easier to recycle and produce too since they don't rely on cobalt

          • dcash on 15/11/2021 - 13:51

            @WowBargain: Most EV's haven't even been around for anything close to 10 years. My '62 Peugeot 404 is still going strong (ok, the strong part is debatable, but it's still going!)

            • Jackson on 16/11/2021 - 08:26

              @dcash: My EV is 10 years old next year, battery is literally the worst tech in an EV since the EV1 ran on NiMh, and not cooled and mine is still going strong.

              I asked a Model S owner the other day and he told me in 5 years of ownership he hasn't noticed any degradation at all

              10 year old Tesla's have degraded about 10% it seems in that time.

              There's a lot of misinformation about batteries, it's part of the human psychological issue of fearing losing something you have (longevity in your vehicle) for gaining something much more valuable (reliability, no reliance on petrol and other fossil fuel products, cheaper servicing, quite car, more responsive, no emissions, more powerful etc etc)

        • netjock on 15/11/2021 - 10:38

          You're also clearly living in la la land if you believe anything Musk says

          Yup. He is a typical sales person. He just has the charisma to sell it better than the engineers that built it. If engineers can sell their own products then we'll have a lot more truth in the world.

      • postform on 14/11/2021 - 20:24
        -5

        This is not true. Ask any long term Tesla owner.

        Also unfortunately due to the nature of our commute of long / short term driving deep cycling might happen more often than Tesla's "average case" driving. This will mean we have very rapid degradation of batteries. Unless we change bat tech.. the most green thing is to just run your car as long as possible.

        This "EV" "GREEN" movement is all a facade.. as lithium is quite… toxic and also having to replace it every 5-10 years kind of defeats the objective of "GREEN/NO WASTE".

        At least you feel better.. even though all our electricity is from coal.

        • Euphemistic on 15/11/2021 - 06:50

          Lithium batteries are highly recyclable. Just need enough stock of used ones to make it worthwhile to build a factory.

          • Punknerd on 16/11/2021 - 06:17

            @Euphemistic: another false premise. These EV companies all have different packaging for their batteries. There isn't even that much Lithium in the cathode, it's other materials that make recyling worthwhile. The industry is moving to lithium-iron-phosphate because Cobalt is too Congo-dependent. This new cathode isn't worth the time pulling the battery apart.

            The whole industry has to agree on 1 standard method of battery packaging and assembly to make automatic recycling possible otherwise they gonna be dumped overseas for 10 y.o. kids to pull apart to earn their next meal.

            • Euphemistic on 16/11/2021 - 08:45

              @Punknerd: 95% of the components of a lithium ion battery are recyclable, just because they are different size and shape doesn’t mean you can’t do it. Vehicle batteries are conforming to a few different basic shapes then hundreds of them are stuck together to make storage big enough to drive 400km. It won’t be hat hard to develop procedures to break them down if the stock and demand are there.

              Yes, currently only 2% of Australia’s batteries are recycled but the mount we are/will generate is certainly a good source of materials. We currently recycle 98% of lead acid batteries in Australia. Not that long that would have been a pie in the sky figure for recycling, but it has proven successful.

              • Punknerd on 16/11/2021 - 09:53

                @Euphemistic: That's just ignorant or wishful thinking. Lead acid are extremely simple - 6 slabs of lead swimming in acid. You get to the materials straight away.

                Li-ion battery pack require extensive disassembly by hand, then Either cooked at high temp or bathed in extremely toxic chemicals. Both of which dissolve some of the original materials. Both of which is energy intensive.

                As I said, it's not impossible.But for it to be a profitable/ sustainable recycling operation, the batteries need standardised packaging and designed with recycling in mind.

                • Euphemistic on 16/11/2021 - 12:08

                  @Punknerd: That is also ignorant. Just because it’s jot economically viable right now doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do it

                  Totally agree that standardised parts should be made to make the process easier.

      • El Grande on 15/11/2021 - 11:26
        +2

        Batteries degrade over time and usage. Engines degrade with usage. If you don't do a lot of Kms an EV will not make sense for you.

    • yadq on 13/11/2021 - 21:23
      +1

      a 10 year EV will need a battery change

      There is a Brisbane-based company (Novonix) that has already made a battery with tests claiming multi-million-mile performance. Apparently Tesla is interested in their work also.

    • MrThing on 13/11/2021 - 23:16
      +3

      depends if your a REA then a merc A45 AMG is defs an investment /s

    • Fobsessive on 13/11/2021 - 23:55
      +3

      Some cars are investments. Eg S2000 and S14 prices rising

      • abuch47 on 14/11/2021 - 18:12

        Commodore

    • 42 on 14/11/2021 - 06:18

      Investment in lifestyle. Not necessarily a financial investment.

    • NPB on 14/11/2021 - 08:58

      I agree with this. It’s not an investment, it’s a tool which can help you earn income . I think your choice , comfort , needs and safety also matters while buying cars. You are thinking about what happens in 10 years when you don’t know what will happen tomorrow.

    • [Deactivated] on 14/11/2021 - 16:00

      A car is not an investment, it's a tool which /can/ help you earn income.

      If only people thought this way about housing

    • downbythecreek on 16/11/2021 - 08:13

      Pfft, I know a Westpac Analyst that would love to disagree with you.

  • Muzeeb on 12/11/2021 - 17:09
    +5

    I'm personally not convinced EV is the future in automobiles. My next car will be petrol. A Cerato has a natural economical life of 10 years so just go with that.

    • FLICKIT on 12/11/2021 - 17:16
      +4

      I think EV's are the way to go for big city commuting and such but they don't really fit with how I use my vehicles, and I suspect I'm not the only one…

      • Hasbulla on 15/11/2021 - 16:44

        how do you use your vehicles?

        • FLICKIT on 15/11/2021 - 17:08

          I have a old 4x4 ute that mainly gets used around my property, I use it on the road at times but it doesn't get a great deal of use, maybe 2000km per year, it's a bit rough but it's a good workhorse… and I have a Hiace Commuter bus campervan that mainly gets used for long trips, laps of the country, drive out to remote areas to go hiking, riding, or such… and I have a motorbike that generally gets used for fairly long and remote trips, forestry, deserts, and such… (edit: and 4x4 tractor)

          None of these vehicles can be replaced by any of the current EV's, or any that are likely to come on the market any time soon, and when 4x4 or large van EV's do appear they're likely to be super expensive… EV motorcycles will never be capable of doing what I use my bike for…

          As I said, I think EV's are good for city commuting and such, but I don't do that…

          • Hasbulla on 16/11/2021 - 11:22

            @FLICKIT: I understand that there are definitely EVs well capable of doing what you need, but maybe pricing is an obstacle for you instead.
            I also understand that there's more than city commuting that EV are capable of.
            Motorcycles? Surely you are carry extra fuel then.
            Enduro bikes are not known for extra long remote off road range and yes, EV bikes are not there yet, but man they're soooo much fun.
            Also think of the peace and quiet in your loved forestry and outdoors.

            • FLICKIT on 16/11/2021 - 17:05

              @Hasbulla: So what EV 4x4 utes are around?, and high roof long wheelbase vans ?, both need a fairly high load capacity, we're talking affordable here, I'm not going to spend $200,000+ on a 4x4 ute that will only be used for a couple of thousand km per year, lol … We have to be realistic…

              I load the bike with fuel for 1000km range when doing desert crossings… Needing a range over 800km is not unusual, and then some spare fuel in the event of detours or having to turn back, next community being closed, or such…
              https://i.postimg.cc/x84DQTKN/P7018199bc.jpg

              • Euphemistic on 16/11/2021 - 17:54
                +1

                @FLICKIT: Take some lightweight solar panels you could run for ages with a rest day here and there.

                I saw recently there is a company in China making an EV version of the current Navara ute. Supposedly 400km range. Better size than the Rivian or F150 for a lot of Aussies.

                • FLICKIT on 16/11/2021 - 17:59

                  @Euphemistic: Rest days aren't an option due to having to carry all your food and water… and it would take a lot more than a couple of lightweight panels to charge up a bike to push through hundreds of km of soft desert sand, lol (it's barely practical to recharge my e-bike via solar when on the road, it's dooable but with other power needs in the campervan it's a stretch, I'm still toying with ideas for that)

                  I'm certainly not anti-EV, they just need to be practical, usable, and affordable…. (Lifespan plays into the affordable quite a bit IMO, only time will tell there, the lack of a decent warranty on batteries is a concern)…

                  • Euphemistic on 16/11/2021 - 18:16
                    +1

                    @FLICKIT: Fair enough. TBH it’s pretty early days and your usage pattern is certainly not run of the mill for any vehicle.

                    Right now EVs suit city commuting and occasional half-day trips perfectly well.

                    • FLICKIT on 16/11/2021 - 18:22

                      @Euphemistic: I agree 100%, and I wouldn't mind a small EV for running down to the supermarket and such, but with 3 lots of rego and insurance already, it's not practical to add another to the fleet… (I really don't drive around town much)

          • Jackson on 16/11/2021 - 13:33

            @FLICKIT: The tractor is probably the best use case, but I have no idea if they are making them yet. Someone should though, they would be perfect

            • FLICKIT on 16/11/2021 - 17:16

              @Jackson: Things like tractors tend to get used and abused, often by low skilled workers, they're often run all day long… No doubt an EV tractor is possible but how durable and practical it would be in the real world is another thing… I can think of some situations where they may be good, small market gardens or nurseries, but for general agriculture, hmmm…

              My tractor tends to only get used a handful of times per year, slashing fire breaks, splitting firewood, moving dirt/gravel with the loader, tidying up the roads… I bought it new with the view of it lasting me a lifetime, it sits there happily unused most the time but it's always ready to go with a top-up of diesel and a little maintenance every couple of years… If they exist the cost of an EV tractor couldn't be justified for occasional use, and the battery certainly wouldn't last me a lifetime…

              • Jackson on 16/11/2021 - 17:44
                +2

                @FLICKIT: Electric will be more reliable and less maintenance. It could sit for years and be fine, no oil or anything to stuff around with, and heaps of torque and usable power. It would be a bit of a waste tho having a big battery and only using it a couple of times a year, but it could have a vehicle to load system which let you power your house, that would make it potentially worthwhile

                • FLICKIT on 16/11/2021 - 17:46

                  @Jackson: Got a link to something viable?

                  • Jackson on 16/11/2021 - 19:04

                    @FLICKIT: No but the technology is already all there in cars like the Hyundai kona, you just need someone to put it in a tractor. Probably hasn't been done yet but it's a matter of time

                    • FLICKIT on 16/11/2021 - 19:24

                      @Jackson: There's probably a good reason they're not out in the wild yet… (Like Elon Musks semi type trucks that he claimed was all so simple, lol)

                      • Jackson on 16/11/2021 - 19:29

                        @FLICKIT: There's a great reason, inertia from manufacturers. No one wants to spend money developing the new thing when people are still happy buying the old one

                        • FLICKIT on 16/11/2021 - 19:31

                          @Jackson: If they were cost effective and practical I'm sure someone would be making them…

                          • Jackson on 16/11/2021 - 19:42

                            @FLICKIT: No one wanted to make EVs, besides musk and Carlos Ghosn it seemed, despite them being far superior in many way for most of the world once they got going, so don't expect any encumbents to do anything really

    • Brian McGee on 12/11/2021 - 18:14
      +2

      I would hope the life of a modern vehicle would be greater than that. Given the higher quality materials used and longer service life, along with a 7 year warranty, I would hope 15-20 years (given 2nd, 3rd and 4th hand car market).

      • Muzeeb on 12/11/2021 - 18:28

        The car will be good to go for longer but after 10 years will pretty much bottom out value wise.

        • Brian McGee on 12/11/2021 - 19:57
          +1

          Economic value and service life are totally different things. And at 10 years old it should be one of the $5K deals on parramatta road.

          • Ade99 on 13/11/2021 - 07:40
            +1

            @Brian McGee: depends on the Km's and model……..some may have even increased in value!

    • Ryanek on 12/11/2021 - 20:02
      +20

      I'm personally not convinced EV is the future in automobiles

      Oh boy, I'm bookmarking this and will get back to you in 10 years.

      Just like the time the IBM president who in 1943 said "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers"

      • Muzeeb on 12/11/2021 - 20:09
        +16

        This dude put my quote in his calendar. 8 months later I was wrong

        • Ryanek on 12/11/2021 - 20:10
          +3

          Lol bad track record so far.

      • peterpaoliello on 14/11/2021 - 09:26
        +1

        What computers were in 1943 where more akin to our super computers now, he wasn't talking about Apple watches.

        • Ryanek on 14/11/2021 - 10:21

          I would argue that in 80 years we will have a computer as powerful as a super computer now on our wrist.

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