Future of Facebook? Will They Survive or Be The Next Myspace?

In response to the recent news of Facebook's massive drop in stock value and first ever decrease in active users on the platform, what are your thoughts on Facebook and it's future?
If you haven't seen the articles check here.

As the article above mentions, they're still profitable but betting heavily on the "Metaverse" working out and becoming the next big thing.

Personally I don't use Facebook anymore beyond Messenger and social event planning and I don't see many of my own friends doing much more on it beyond that.
Add to that all the ethical and PR disasters they've been involved with in recent times and it paints a pretty negative picture.
However, it's undeniable that they still have a ridiculous amount of user data that I'm sure could produce profits for quite some time even as users slowly pull away.

On VR and the Metaverse, I am admittedly tempted by the lower price and simple setup of the Oculus Quest 2 versus the other alternatives.
But it's still $479 for the device and more money to buy an elite/3rd party head strap to improve comfort.
Add to that the games and apps and you're easily spending $500+ on a device that ties you to Facebook/Meta's VR ecosystem.

I also wonder how long they'll be able to sustain their push into the market with VR considering that as per the article above " that division lost $10.2 billion last year".
While admittedly I'm not the most social person - most of the people I know that are into VR don't own the Quest 2 and instead have a HTC Vive/ Valve Index or PSVR.
These are all more "tech savvy" gamers and not the typical internet user, beyond that I haven't heard of any other people I know go out to buy one.

When you put that perceivably slow adoption rate of their new platform, along with iOS' update to ask for tracking permission and the beginning of a decline in Facebook userbase it seems like the Zuck is in a bit of a pickle.

What are your thoughts? Do you think they'll survive and thrive or be gone in the next decade?

Poll Options

  • 24
    Facebook weathers this and the Metaverse becomes the next big thing
  • 454
    Facebook suffers a slow decline and the Metaverse doesn't gain widespread adoption
  • 8
    Facebook crashes and burns a la LeTV's pivot into Cars and Phones

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Comments

  • +1

    Sweet Baby Ray's BBQ Sauce

    ~ A wise lizard

  • +16

    I hope it goes away and is replaced by something less annoying

    It was once no adds then 10% adds but now at 50% adds its horrible

    edit: later realised that its about the stock?

    company value is really in data not earnings (so traditional value wise always looks like a bubble stock)

    • +2

      Yeah that's fair, almost all modern day tech companies look like that earnings wise and hence why I comment that it could be what keeps them afloat for longer.

      I was still asking in a more general sense as well, totally agree on the ads.
      Not just for random products I don't want but also articles from news company's I don't care for.
      I often feel like it's either garbage gossip style articles or some sort of clickbaity/intentionally inflammatory representation of current events.
      Then you look at the comments on said articles and it makes your eyes glaze over…

      If my friends would be bothered to move to another platform I don't think I'd have any reason to really keep using Facebook.

    • +13

      Instagram has done this to a comical degree in recent weeks. My feed is now like 15% things I follow, the rest is ads and random videos.

      Speaking of which, when I was weaning off fb, turning videos off was a huge first step… I wonder if I can do this with ig.

      • It's their new focus - to battle TikTok with short video reels.
        https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-parent-meta-faces-uphi...

        • I get why they do it. Videos suck people in, and they keep people on platform, I notice I do it myself. The constant videos were the straw that broke the camels back and got me to finally give up fb, ig is quickly doing the same.

          I'm getting old.

    • And most of your friends posts are sharing of posts you are not interested in

    • MeWe is an alternative. AFAIK I know it's ad free. I'm signed up on it but there's not much activity yet.

      • Photography forums/groups are pretty good… lots of "did my own research" types on there though.

        • Such is the problem with allowing freedom of speech, we don’t all like all speech. Mewe is a pointless endeavour though, you’re better off joining the fediverse and just blocking those you don’t want to see.

    • +2

      I use Facebook and Instagram via the Firefox browser in incognito mode. Don't get any ads or any other the other BS.

      Facebook is still crap though.

    • youtube is the same, double the ads, thats the future, even with new platforms

  • FB is oversold. I have buy orders on FB. It should get executed on Monday.

    • +1

      What price your buy orders

      • +1

        I'm looking at $235.

        It has been tested twice on Friday. It can go back to $230 but I don't want to risk missing the dip if it doesn't.

        I already missed TSLA at $780 when it only dipped to $792 last week.

    • +2

      Agreed, If I had cash to be deployed I would snag some Facebook whilst it is cheap.

      • FYI:
        There is an old saying that no one makes money in a bear market: the bulls lose because prices are falling in general, but the bears lose too because the reflex rallies are so strong.
        If the most recent rally in US stocks was just an oversold reflex rally, one can see how that adage came to be.

        Tech is close to a bear market right now.

      • +7

        "Facebook whilst it is cheap."

        ROTFLMAO

    • "FB is oversold. I have buy orders on FB"

      BEWARE

      I think grossly overvalued tech shares face further declines, and maybe even a crash, as inflation rears its ugly head and interest rates rise.

      BUT … will likely be a short term bounce to catch out the "buy-on-the-dip" crowd..

      • +2

        FB dipping -25% is irrational. Some whales panic sold and triggered the bots.

        This happens every week in crypto.

        • +3

          FB pricing is irrational.

          FYI:

          "US stocks are in a Super Bubble" only the fourth in history, and poised to collapse. value-investing icon Jeremy Grantham

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JlEGU2ypr1Q

          • +2

            @Gekov: Price predictions are like a-holes, everyone has one.

            Doomsday traders like Jeremy Grantham have been shouting crash, crash for years to anyone that wants to listen.

            The SPX doesn't care. It continues to go up to the right. GFC happened, up to right and ATH. Rona party, up to the right and ATH. Biden goes to war against Putin, up to right and ATH.

            The SPX takes a damp and then prints an ATH every time after that.

            FYI. I've been in three -50% damps in two years. There is nothing the SPX can do that I can't hodl.

            • @rektrading: FYI:
              SPX500 hasn't seen an ATH for quite a few months now …. WTF are you talking about?

              Chart looks to be in the process of going into bear market territory.
              The high in the chart is NOT an ATH!

              https://www.optionstrategist.com/weekly-charts?goal=0_2f928c...

              • +1

                @Gekov: I don't know what chart you're looking at but the one I use shows the SPX was at ATH on Jan 4 2022.

                https://files.ozbargain.com.au/upload/393946/94025/screensho...

                That was only 31D ago.

                • @rektrading: "That was only 31D ago."

                  I stand corrected…

                  I bet you're hoping that the 6 FAANG stocks will continue to hold up the SP500 while most of the stocks are in bear markets.

                  • +1

                    @Gekov: I'm just here to buy the oversold, get a chunk of meat and get out.

                    I've no long term plays in stonks.

            • @rektrading: "Doomsday traders like Jeremy Grantham "

              If you watch the video, Jeremy was calling the US as merely a common or garden variety asset bubble about one year ago.
              Today he's calling it a RARE super bubble with bubbles in both real estate and stocks.
              And the super bubble is only in the US. Other countries not so bad.

              He quotes the great depression where stocks only recovered by1955, Japan which still hasn't recovered from its crash, and the NASDAQ which took 15 years to recover from the 2000 crash … good luck with your tech stocks.

    • +1

      I am not so sure. Their current outlook is really really bad going forward with no prospects of growth and even if the Metaverse succeeds it is 10 years off. At current Value it still has a PE of 17, It needs to be below 15 given its current outlook.

      • I'm looking for the 💀 🐈 bounce. Big caps normally don't dip -25% without a bounce.

        • +1

          Yeah that definitely should be a possibility Monday.

        • Must admit I was surprised at no dead cat bounce yet. stabilised by afternoon but no rebound at all really, expected at least a short one Monday but seems it still has potentially further to fall before that happens.

          • @gromit: Bitcoin popped $44,000. The rally is coming from somewhere. My guess is whales are taking money from tech stonks to Bitcoin.

            Wait for Bitcoin to go sideways and money may flow back to tech.

      • "At current Value it still has a PE of 17,"

        HUH? I make the current PE at about 25.

        https://tradingeconomics.com/fb:us:pe#:~:text=Facebook

  • +7

    Young people use Instagram which Facebook owns, but even younger people use TikTok and Snapchat.

    • +2

      And Discord (which isn't quite the same thing but has similarities).

    • +2

      Came to say this.
      Facebook will both die and survive.

      Their old platform is dying, that's why they continually update and transform it. And it will survive because they'll keep buying up their competitors. At the end of the day, this is merely about capturing the time-spent (or attention) of people who visit the digital world.

      I can see Apple making plans to compete in this space, probably via buying their way in. Like buying the next SnapChat or what have you. iMessages is a huge success, but it's limited to only iOS/macOS owners. MS tried many times and they sort of gave up, but they are happy with their current spot of Skype and Xbox divisions.

      • That's an interesting thought, if Apple finally released iMessage for Android but also turned it into a Snap/Tik/Face competitor.

        • +1

          No, iMessage is a competitor for SMS (mainstream communication).

          The likes of Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, and Tiktok are for different purposes (social entertainment). Just like LinkedIn is for a different purpose (professional networking). Twitter is something of a mix of all three, it acts as an SMS from you to the whole world, there is a bit of professional/business involved, but is largely for entertainment purposes.

          For Apple to compete for people's digital attention, they need to develop an alternative to Meta. For that, they will need to buy out an emerging competitor. MS tried to buy TikTok but failed, and I think Apple is too late to try now. So they'll have to wait for the next best thing. I think that thing could actually be a strong alternative to YouTube, but we will see.

          • +1

            @Kangal: Apple are meant to be making premium AR/VR goggles or something.

      • +2

        And it will survive because they'll keep buying up their competitors.

        The regulators are on to them now and they won't be able to do this any more.

  • +5

    I don't think vr will get wide spread adoption. It'll have a small market share for a long time.

    People won't want to use it for gaming because it's too intensive. You can't play vr for 6 hours straight, but you can play xbox for 6 hours.

    Talking to virtual avatars is way less engaging than seeing the people in a live video chat.

    VR for work implementations exsit and could take off, but I'm not sure how the meta verse could profit from this segment. Business won't want adverts, so fb would only have a paas/saas platform (a market platform similar to office, but a lot smaller). But why would businesses choose Facebook instead of say an Android vr product, where you don't have to pay for fb services or be locked into fb hardware?

    • +1

      “The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’—which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants—becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.” P.K

      People shouldn't try and predict how technology will affect the future. Technology will do what it wants when it wants.

      • +2

        ? .. OP is asking for our predictions on vr/fb.

    • +1

      But why would businesses choose Facebook instead

      Why do Businesses choose Zoom over Skype, Teams, Meets, Facetime etc?

      • +5

        Skype and Teams are used a lot.
        Facetime requires an iPhone, and you don't want to have a meeting from a phone anyway, you want to have meetings from your computer where you can share your screen.
        Don't know what Meets is.
        Zoom seems to be mainly used by clubs, organisations and regular people - I have never seen a business use it (I'm sure they do I just haven't seen it). Only Slack, Skype and Teams

    • I have generally the same opinion of VR at the moment as well, but I do still feel like there's some possibility that they manage to stumble upon the perfect timing, pricing and product experience combination that the market rapidly uptakes VR. Quest/ Quest 2 and the whole wireless experience takes a step towards that but based on my surface level impressions and brief research it doesn't look like there's enough depth to the apps and games that are available.

      I've looked into the professional side and beyond say SketchUp VR there's not a whole lot of Engineering/Design based apps. Games are also reportedly often quite short or lack a lot of depth, coming off feeling more tech-demo like.

      Maybe if they're able to hold on long enough for those apps to arrive and get the tech cheap enough for more widespread adoption they could gain a solid footing.
      But It's already nearing the 3rd iteration of the Quest, and I wouldn't be surprised if Meta/Facebook are selling the Quest unit's at cost or with not a large profit.

    • I think VR and AR will take off. It's just a slow burn. Once you get truly lightweight goggles so you don't get tired/sore then full immersive gaming and also the benefits of AR in the work environment will be huge.

  • +19

    I'm sorry but every time I see the hype on the Metaverse, I think 'haven't I already been there and done this?'

    And I realise I did - 15 years ago.

    Second Life

    Metaverse will die a slow and hideous death, remaining relevant only to those keen to get their money back. Meanwhile, the rest of humanity will get on with life outside of the Matrix.

    • +12

      people are paying thousands of real money for "virtial land/buildings"…. theres one born every minute…

      • +1

        NFTs bro 😂

      • Oh by this stage there seem to be hundreds born every minute.

    • This is a very odd view of technology.

      Tesla is over 18 years old and yet it's meteoric rise and place can only be attributed to the last 5 years of development due to all market conditions lining up for it including environmental factors, Government policies, economies of scale, technological breakthroughs, consumer attitudes etc.

      • +14

        Yes but Musk is delivering things people actually need.

        Nothing could convince me then or now, that people need to have meetings with virtual avatars in virtual penthouses. It's 100% wnk factor.

        But, if I'm wrong, well I'll hardly care 🤣👍

        • +1

          Yeah I don't really see merit in trying to fully replace reality and society with a virtual one.
          I'm not saying that there's nothing of merit in VR, or that VR doesn't have any entertaining or useful use cases.

          What I do think is that we shouldn't be trying to replace say, going out to grab a coffee with someone with VR chat rooms and interactions in Second Life/Metaverse. But it feels like that's what they're pushing for…

          • @Kikkoman56: Exactly. I see VR being very relevant and expanding in experiences, remote tourism, accessibility, education (especially tertiary), medical, engineering, aviation etc.

            But technology as a whole - people are no longer wanting it to be a time sink and invasive. Facebook and Metaverse are both. If technology isn't creating efficiencies and providing time for real life experiences then people won't buy it.

          • @Kikkoman56: I think VR definitely has its place especially for disabled people who are bed-ridden, immunocompromised people who can't go out without a fear of getting severely ill. Many people became mentally fatigued during the extended lockdown but these disabled people are isolated regardless and giving them opportunities to be immersed in VR to meet people and VR travel surely help them mentally.

    • +1

      Came here to say the same. I was an avid user of Second Life when it started and we all saw what happened to that once corporate interests, porn, and casinos took over.

      It will be interesting if the Metaverse attempts its own currency like Second Life did and how that will unfold. I love new technology, Metaverse is not new.

      And FB is dying more every day, I only stay on it for some really niche groups that boot people out the minute they're rude.

  • +1

    Facebook is too embedded it's lost a lot of its share. But it's still super big.

  • +5

    i dont use facebook and i havent in 5 years i personally dont like the lack of privacy and the general toxic nature of fb as a social media

    the only thing i really use often now is reddit and that is more for investing and news

    my toxic work place also checks fbs and social media and if you say anything remotely right wing or anti COVID you get a warning - for example i am pro vax but anti mandate if i said that publicly HR would be after me

    • What company yikes

  • +7

    I hope it crashed and burns, along with the rest of the fake "social media" rubbish.

    • What's real social media if Facebook is fake social media? 🤔

      • +9

        Honestly? Facebook is not fake. It is there, you can see it. The people and their lives are fake. People only post what they want others to see, it's all an illusion. Social media is damaging, especially to young or impressionable people.

  • +12

    burn fb, keep fb marketplace

    • I love been ripped off on rusty old crap.

      • +5

        stop buying it then

    • +1

      Yes, but get rid of most of the current users of Marketplace too. Or at least have a reading comprehension test before admission.

      Me: <Lists item>
      Person 1: "Is this still available?"
      Me: Yes. Would you like to come and get it?
      Person 1: <no reply>

      Person 2: Is this still available? Where is it?
      Me: Yes it's available. It's in <my location, listed in the ad>
      Person 2: Lol that's more than 10 minutes away! <No further responses>

      Person 3: Can I come and collect it in 2034?
      Me: -_-

      • +1

        In defense of the indefensible - facebook marketplace users:

        In the first case, they've probably messaged several sellers and picked someone else who responded faster or had a better price, or was located more conveniently or had a better item. There's no standard of courtesy saying they have to follow up with you and half a dozen others if they bought elsewhere. Sellers on marketplace are as inconsistent as buyers, so carpet-bombing requests is pragmatic if not entirely considerate.

        In the second place, Facebook marketplace is absolutely terrible at indicating where sellers are located in the search screen, and filtering by location often doesn't work, at least on mobile. I've tried to list stuff in my suburb 10km from the CBD, only for it to describe it as in "Brisbane".

        In the third case, idiots need stuff too.

    • +1

      If marketplace died maybe people would migrate back to Gumtree, which is a much better designed and functional platform. Unfortunately it seems to be in decline as people sell on marketplace because they already have a FB account and don't want to sign up to gumtree.

    • For me, the only redeeming quality of FB is the Marketplace. The ads on it really suck though.

  • +14

    Metaverse is such a joke. It's like Mark watched Ready Player One and thought "that'll be amazing".

  • +1

    I would assume they have enough capital to ride through any wave.

  • +1

    Frriendster is coming back

  • +1

    What are the competitors to Facebook? Instagram (owned by then anyway) and tiktok don't have the same community discussion aspect, do they? To me they seem more like YouTube than Facebook.

    • MeWe is a FB alternative.

    • +8

      Join gab, free speech and freedom from censorship are vital to the survival of civilisations

      Main page for a guest user contains a trump post complaining about the "failing New York Times", a post saying Biden isn't the real president, anti vax post , and a bunch of GoFundMe complaints

      Thank god, because out survival as a civilisation would he lost without such quality information.

  • +5

    I'm just waiting for the pools at Habbo Hotel to reopen.

  • Firstly… Who do you know with a Valve Index? Second, what are their home addresses? I am conducting an anonymous survey of Index owners in Australia for statistical analysis only… Yes. That is what is happening.

  • pisst pisst… wana watch? How do they know out of 1,000 people walking down the street that I want a watch?
    Are they watching me… are they listening…. did someone tell them?

    Well, yes, you did…. and they harvested all your data.

    Shut it down… get out… stand up for your rights.

  • FB doesn't have any competitors. They have the capital and the network effect to make the Meta work.

    They joining COPA may help them buidl a better relationship with other industry leaders and its users.

    • +1

      This article is more than 1 year old
      Nick Clegg Alex Hern @alexhern Tue 22 Sep 2020 16.54 BST

      • Yes, but it's still going. Meta submitted their yearly report to the SEC [Securities and Exchange Commission] which states: "If a new transatlantic data transfer framework is not adopted and we are unable to continue to rely on SCCs or rely upon other alternative means of data transfers from Europe to the United States, we will likely be unable to offer a number of our most significant products and services, including Facebook and Instagram, in Europe, which would materially and adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations"

  • +4

    I was reading somewhere that people are paying big big $$’s for fake land in a fake game in the hopes they can sell it to other people who want to buy fake land in a fake game.

    This has NFT/beanie baby levels of stupidity written all over it. At least with crypto, I can see a use for it. Bipuyimg up virtual land and real bubble potential written all over it,

    I was reading an article where a couple has sunk their life savings into buying up massive swathes of “virtual land” inside metaverse to “secure their children’s future”

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