Should RBA Governor Lowe Resign?

Less then a year ago Dr Lowe publicly announced interest rises wouldn't rise any earlier then 2024- this clearly would of influenced a number of peoples decisions to take out loans - This statement at the time might of seemed reasonable and lured some borrowers into a false sense of security.

https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/lowe-admits-embarrassing-…

My question is this incredibility irresponsible handling of Australias cash rate could have large impacts on a number of Australians.

Now i agree interest rates had to rise based on inflation but this comments about the cash rate are far more damaging then some people realise

I feel like there needs to be some accountability as Dr Lowe is paid $911,728 pa to be Governor of the RBA i personally think he should be shown the door or forced to walk.

I'd almost argue the lack of criticism on him right now is a bit of a joke his comments could turn out to be incredibility damaging for a number of borrowers.

Full disclosure: I have a home loan but im fixed for the rate rise doesnt affect me in anyway right now but im curious to know what people think

Update: looks like most people are 'alright' with it personally i'd like to see him replaced but i find it interesting people find it interesting as he is a very high paid 'public' servant that people dont expect better.

Poll Options

  • 155
    Lowe should be sacked or resign
  • 495
    Lowe should stay
  • 21
    Unsure

Comments

  • He should not be sacked for this but it was stupid of him to say that. Hopefully him and future RBA govereners have learnt their lessons

  • +1

    The whole board should have resigned in disgrace at the end of October when its yield curve control policy went down the crapper. Cognitive dissonance is what these people do best. Parasites, the lot of them.

  • -1

    Does anyone have 🍟 to go with all the 🧂? ☝️

    The central banks 🖨️ went ape for Rona and is now collecting it back.

    People had ✌️ years to prepare for a survival kit. People that did will 😴 like 👶 and those that didn't will 😭 before 🛌.

    • Is it easier to write using all those emojis? Legit I wanna know not trolling or anything.

      • -1

        They come up as auto-correction.

        It makes my "job" more enjoyable when the market is cliff diving.

        • Your job requires you to write using emojis? Are you a social media manager of some sort?

          • @michaelTito: He's probably a third rate economist working for the RBA and has never held a position in the real world…let's rig the market and then jawbone it away. No emoji required.

          • @michaelTito: My "job" requires me to not take anything too serious.

            Life is a journey and it should be enjoyed. The same attitude applies to work as well.

            People should 😁 more on their way to work.

  • +2

    firstly he made no such announcement. Him predicting rates would not raise until 2024 is not an implied guarentee (even though it was a dumb arse prediction).
    Secondly wasn't it 2020 he made that prediction? 2021 it had already come forward.
    Thirdly anyone that believed that prediction as accurateand made choices based on it has no one but themselves to blame as there was a huge amount of analysts poiinting out how bad the prediction was.

    • I heard Shane Oliver make predictions and is the one to 👂 to.

      • +1

        I have a rule never to listen to Shane Oliver!

      • I think it is just sad people look for someone to blame for their own mistakes and lack of research. It was similar with the banking royal commission. A lot of whining from people that refused to take responsibility for their bad decisions and looking to pass all the blame to the banks as the banks should have called out the borrowers lies, exaggerations or bad investments.

        • 🏦 are evil.

          They're the middlemen for the biggest financial crimes but rarely (never) get punished with jail time.

          It set off a recession that collectively destroyed over $30 trillion of the world's wealth. And though the crisis grew out of big banks' handling of mortgage-backed securities, no Wall Street executive went to jail for it.

          • @rektrading: yep and that is the sort of crap excuses people use. It isn't there fault for lieing or making bad decisions as the bank is evil.

            • @gromit: Legacy banks rekt $30T worth of assets and nobody went to jail.

              Blaming 🏦 is justified.

              • @rektrading: pathetic really. I have no problem blaming banks for what they do or did. But it is completely pathetic to use that as an excuse for personal errors of judgement. It is the kindergarten equivalent of "but johnny did something bad too mum"

                • @gromit: Borrowers took out debt in good faith with the banks only to have the banks rug pull them.

                  The borrowers got fubar while the top brass at the banks got paid out their million 💲 contracts, jumped in their lambo and drove into the 🌇.

                  • @rektrading: no borrowers lied and exaggerated to get loans they could not service and then blamed the banks for not being better at calling them out on there lies.

                    • @gromit:

                      For many years prior to its demise, Lehman Brothers employed Ernst & Young (EY) as the
                      firm’s independent auditors to review its financial statements and express an opinion as to
                      whether they fairly represented the company’s financial position. EY was supposed to try to
                      detect fraud, determine whether a matter should be publicly disclosed, and communicate
                      certain issues to Lehman’s Board audit committee. After Lehman filed for bankruptcy, it was
                      discovered that the firm had employed questionable accounting with regard to an
                      unorthodox financing transaction, Repo 105, which it used to make its results appear better
                      than they were. EY was aware of Lehman’s use of Repo 105, and its failure to disclose its use.
                      EY also knew that Lehman included in its liquidity pool assets that were impaired. When
                      questioned, EY insisted that it had done nothing wrong. However, Anton R. Valukas, the
                      Lehman bankruptcy examiner, concluded that EY had not fulfilled its duties and that
                      probable claims existed against EY for malpractice.

                    • @gromit:

                      https://www.afr.com/companies/professional-services/ernst-an…
                      Ernst & Young pays $10m to settle Lehman Brothers fraud suit
                      Apr 16, 2015 – 5.23am

                      Ernst & Young LLP will pay $US10 million to settle a New York lawsuit accusing the accounting firm of helping Lehman Brothers Holdings deceive investors in the years leading up to its 2008 collapse, the New York attorney general said.

                    • @gromit:

                      https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2010/attorney-general-cuomo-…
                      Post date: December 21 2010
                      Attorney General Cuomo Sues Ernst & Young For Assisting Lehman Brothers In Financial Fraud

                      The bank lied and the auditor lied to commit fraud.

  • +6

    Lowe in November 2020: [Based on outlook for unemployment and inflation, and specifically before inflation is firmly within the target of 2-3%, RBA will not increase the cash rate. RBA doesn't expect this to occur for the next 3 years.]

    Media in November 2020 (Probably): RBA WON'T INCREASE RATES UNTIL 2023/24, EVERYONE GO SPEND MONEY!

    This week: omg but Lowe promised no rate rises for 3 years!!

    Anyway the bigger issue IMO is the generally poor financial literacy of the country.

    • Although i agree the media is rubbish, he did say they werent looking at increasing the cash rate till 2024.

      Ill make this clear i agree they needed to increase the cash i reckon they should of upped it by more and/or a long time ago but regardless it wasn't a 'smart' comment from someone who is meant to be a financial expert

      Im reading a lot of excuses from imo financially illiterate people in the comments saying he did know there would be a war etc etc but if you are a financial expert you should know 'shit happens' and never deal in absolutes

      I work in healthcare even for the more simple surgeries you never tell a patient they would 100% will be fine as there is always a chance of complication, infection, adverse reaction. This can be liked to the economy, tomorrow a hurricane could wipe out half of Sydney you simply 'dont know'

      I would of preferred him to say it "It is unlikely we will raise rates in the short-medium term however we will always look at the numbers" or something on those lines. I just find it amazing how people think his comments are acceptable.

      • -1

        Although i agree the media is rubbish

        Doesn't stop people believing there will be like 8 consecutive rate rises to end of the year taking us to 2% plus (4%+ mortgages)

        • Once more i agree but is that 'peoples fault' or is that the 'medias fault'

          We have 2 government funded independent stations that cover TV, Online and streamed services - they shouldn't be pushing tabloid journalism sadly (more so the ABC) they do.

          • @Trying2SaveABuck: The media just wants to give what people want to hear (or interested in).

            If you think about the interest rates before pandemic and then it dropped to record lows and Lowe said he can foresee it low until 2024. Then it is a short team deal for a longer term mortgage (25 to 30 years) so what are point going to do about it? If you pocketed the saving then good on you. If you decided to bid more on property then only yourself to blame.

        • +2

          The potential 8 consecutive raises isn't coming form the media, it is coming from the bank analysts and the expectation is it would put the rate somewhere between 1.5 and 2.0%. though with the US surprise huge jump last night I think the higher end of that range is more likely than not.

          • @gromit: Feds are tipping 5-6% by 2024

            • @Jason Genova: Powell is trying to fight a battle against 🏃 away inflation.

              He will lose.

            • @Jason Genova:

              Feds are tipping 5-6% by 2024

              in fairness the US inflation is like 7% or something! so i can see that happening we are doing a 'bit' better here in Aus

              • @Trying2SaveABuck: Most of it is driven by price of used cars. People just shooting themselves in the foot. You know sheep get sheered if they are lucky, they get culled if they are not lucky.

          • -1

            @gromit:

            it is coming from the bank analysts

            The same ones that said house prices were going to drop 20% due to COVID19 pandemic?

            They going to get it right 8 times in a row? It is like an army of fund managers can't beat the index, what hope is there for these people.

      • Yes it was stupid to put such a long duration on it, but I would say that the trigger to increase interest rates was already included in the statement he made - literally in the same paragraph.

        At the same time the economy is a game of trust - the RBA during a crisis situation in the middle of COVID needs to at least implicitly guarantee stability to maintain consumer and business confidence, so it can't be too wishy washy about the future projection of the case rate. But yes in hindsight RBA over-implied stability when it perhaps didn't need to, especially when most people's understanding of the matter would mostly be about the stability and not the rate rise trigger.

  • +4

    I look forward to a proper rise in interest for my savings.

  • -2

    Those predictions were before the conflict in Ukraine, which is the largest factor in current underlying inflation. Without the conflict we will probably be still at record lows. Also, 0.25% rise should not break your monthly balance sheet. If it does, dont leverage into investments or property

    • +1

      Those predictions were before the conflict in Ukraine, which is the largest factor in current underlying inflation.

      👎

      The central banks around the 🌎 🖨️ trillions of dollars are driving inflation.

      🇺🇦 v 🇷🇺 was just bad timing and something 🐏 can use to 👉 👀 at 🇷🇺.

      • +1

        I can't believe someone negged you for pointing out the main cause of the ramping up of inflation.

        Ukraine is late and far less of an impact compared to printing trillions.

        But then again, many looooved their handouts.

  • +3

    This guy said that the rise in inflation "was a surprise to us all". WTF? Does he live in the real world? Has he not had to pay for petrol, groceries, services, utilities over the last 18 months? Guess he gets someone else to do all that being on a 7 figure salary and all. Maybe all the bloody money printing and dropping rates to almost 0 caused it? What a moron

  • I'd be skeptical of taking financial or political advice from someone who is incapable of differentiating the correct usage of 'then' and 'than' (in addition to the litany of other spelling and grammatical errors).

  • +8

    RBA statements are as much psychological as they are fiscal. "2024" was intentional to get you to spend during an economic emergency without hesitation. They don't care about you. You are a unit that consumes and produces.

    • +1

      And are now enslaved to the system that little bit more.

      Printed money trickles UP all you sheeple

  • +1

    Lowe should go back to bigW to try hardware again? With the lucky country going to Albania what possibly could go Wong?

  • +1

    I, for one, agree with you OP.

    If I was that high profile being paid almost a million dollars a year, and I screwed that call up so badly, I would resign in shame.

    Hes got ONE JOB ffs.

    Either he is so massively incompetent that he actually thought he could keep rates low until 2024,
    or,
    he deliberately mislead borrowers to influence them to take on more debt than they normally would.

    In either case he should be fired. I don't understand how anyone could think any differently than that.

    I must admit I did buy a house in this time period, and his comments went a long way towards us feeling comfortable about taking on that much debt.
    Maybe we could set up a class action and get some of his millions.

    • Maybe we could set up a class action and get some of his millions.

      The head of the RBA is an employee of the RBA. Any "advice" that came from him was from the RBA.

      People have to sue the RBA and taxpayers will be one to pay the bill.

  • +1

    If I can predict the future why would I work for RBA and make only $911,728 pa in the first place :)

    • perhaps dont 'try and predict' the future if you dont know the outcome?

      • "He makes $911,728 pa, controls RBA and can't even f**king tell me where interest rate's going!"

  • Economics is not an exact science. Things change and occur that cannot be predicted. He made the correct decision in the long run interests of Australia.

    You should be demanding the resignation of bank managers who handed out massive loans to people who could never realistically service them.

  • +1

    Whining about the RBA, and glossing over all the inaccurate predictions and outright lies in politics of no late…

    Think I can guess which way you'll be voting…

  • +1

    Ive been waiting for interest rates to rise, so that self funded retirees actually start to benefit from smart investments in their working life, and that those who have over -extended themselves with a mortgage they cant afford in real life, leaf8ng to more housing becoming available to those can actually afford it.

  • Interest rates needs to increase to slowdown/reduce inflation.
    Even though your borrowings will increase in interest repayment, if inflation is not reduced then you will be paying a lot more on everyday living costs vs interest on borrowings.

  • Honestly I just find he's massively overpaid and under-delivered for whatever he's doing. All major central banks (except Turkey) have already raised rates since the start of the 2022. US raised 0.75bps this year (Mar + May) and will be raising another 0.5 bps in June. That's 1.25% for the first half of this year. Our neighbour New Zealand raised 4 times to 1.5% with the latest move being 0.5 bps. Singapore, with its biannual rate meeting (Apr/Oct), did a surprise currency strengthening in Jan (outside its usual rate meeting). And yet our RBA is taking its own sweet time (still pondering to do it after the elections) and making a big deal with its supposed 0.15bps (finally deciding on 0.25bps) rate hike. Really makes me wonder how vested the RBA board and their crony is in the housing market.

  • Inflation has been rampant since mid-2021, and the RBA’s mandate is to control inflation. Interest rates were at record lows. Either you haven’t been paying attention or you didn’t do sufficient research, but the RBA governor’s advice and guidance is always subject to change as additional data comes in. You should build your own buffers in to what the ‘official’ forecasts are (just as the banks do when they assess your loan application) as those forecasts are almost always wrong.

  • +1

    https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/wiping-1-5-trillion-of…

    RBA ignored Christopher Joye & Coolibah Capital’s accurate advice on interest rates & house prices

    • Yes, this was intentional. The RBA was worried about deflation. They don't care if people are wage slaves their entire life, as long as the banking industry stays afloat to profit from it

      The RBA changed it's policy towards inflation during the pandemic.

      Instead of increasing rates in response to inflation expectations, their policy is now to only increase rates in response to observed inflation.

      This means they intentionally ignored signs of inflation at previous meetings. They sat in a room and watched house prices increase 30% in one year and did nothing.

      So now we have inflation and house prices sky high.
      This isn't a surprise to anyone except the braindead newscorp journalists that everyone follows. This situation was engineered

  • Should stay, it was a bit irresponsible but we want to encourage reserve bank governors to change their position if need be. Should not put excessive pressure onto him over this, or it will set a bad precedent.

  • What a truly odd perspective on how these things work. The amazing predictive power of the RBA is nicely summed up in this one simple graph:
    https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2021/images/sp-gov-2021-07-0…
    Versions of that graph have been floating around for a long time. It only looks worse if you go back further too. That's a cherry-picked train wreck.

    My estimates show that only 37% of people know that over 90% of what the RBA does is jawboning and not predicting things. It's difficult to make predictions. Especially about the future. So instead their job is tell you about the future that's most convenient for you to believe in. The reasoning is based on the 100% proven "60% of the time it works every time" economic theory originally developed by Keynes and further refined by Friedman. If that involves telling you a fairly tale about rates staying at lows never before seen over the previous several millennia then so be it. It nearly always works perfectly.

    It's a bit like how your mum and dad let you believe in Santa or the Easter Bunny. You don't get mad at your parents for not shattering your illusions when you were four years old. So why would you be angry at the poor RBA governor? (he's not literally poor, obviously). You can't fire the guy for doing what was practically his one and only job when he said that. He's not a fortune teller. The actual clairvoyants work in the treasury department.

    • So instead their job is tell you about the future that's most convenient for you to believe in.

      I think it is more than that.
      Of course they never tell the public the real prediction they have made. Whether the prediction accurate or not is irrelevant.
      When the RBA or other people holding power release "forecast" related information to the public, they are actually trying to shape the future in a way that benefits the nation, to be optimistic, but certainly much more beneficial to a small number of people.

      • I never said convenient for you.

  • So when will OP gather a mob and march on the RBA?

    It would be great to finally see equality in this country.

    Forever negative cash rates and no man rich, and no man poor.

    Utopia we shall aspire to.

    • There was a protest outside RBA yesterday. My friend works at the RBA and told me lol.

      • Did they hold up signs saying "Mi Familia"?

  • This would be like firing the weatherman for getting the forecast wrong. There's no way anyone can forecast future economy with 100% certainty.

    Get over it.

    • You will fire the weatherman if he/she gets it wrong for more than an decade. Go check RBA’s wage rise prediction.

      • The weather lady gets their data from the BOM.

  • OP, a lot can change in the economy in less then a year.

    The RBA cannot foresee every single outcome.

  • People that base their financial decisions on one man that isn't giving financial advice is ngmi.

  • What would the damages even be if you were duped into taking out a loan? If you had taken on a mortgage to buy a house at any point in 2020 you would have made a killing in capital gains!

  • +3

    I remember in the second half of 2019 there were businesses, business groups, economists and financial commentators, the rba all calling for fiscal policy. They all stated the federal govt shouldn’t rely on monetary policy because interest rates were already too low and cutting further wasn’t going to stimulate an economy heading for recession. Instead scomo and the treasurer for nsw did nothing forcing the rba to cut interest rates. Plain lazy and continued the path to recession we were heading on.

    I have always wondered if we had a greater interest rate buffer prior to fires and Covid would we have required as much stimulus when shit hit the fan?

  • +2

    Need to sack the governor and every other liberal puppet appointed there, and vote to put these (anti) liberal clowns. These cronies ran up a huge deficit pre covid. Bring back 2013 conditions where Australia came out of GFC as the best performing developed economy!

  • Update: looks like most people are 'alright' with it personally i'd like to see him replaced but i find it interesting people find it interesting as he is a very high paid 'public' servant that people dont expect better.

    Do you know how any organisation works? Do you have any understanding of what the RBA is? There is a whole research department under him that is responsible for forecasts, etc. and he is just communicating their expectations. But you say, the buck has to top somewhere, yep, it's the people he reports to - the RBA board.


    Lastly, if he had perfect foresight, he wouldn't be an economist, he'd be in the buying lotteries business. Why work in a sh*t job for < $1m p.a. and have ignorant knobs criticize you when you can make more than that each week with hardly any effort.

  • +1

    He should be sacked for raising only 25 basis points….

  • Doesnt affect me in anyway right now but im curious to know what people think

    this clearly would of influenced a number of peoples decisions to take out loans

    It is what it is. When making any personal investment decision you have to consider for both best and worst scenarios. He made a prediction (influenced or not influenced we do not know) but the end of the day it is neither financial advice nor a written guarantee. For instance if you're getting into a 20-30 year long investment such as housing, you should look into your financial position if interest rates were to double in the next few years (as the worst case).

  • At the time he said they wont move for 2+years was due to factors and projections at the time. He wasn't locking the rate for 2 years, you're a clown if you think that's the case.

  • im no economist
    but i think he needs to make that statement so that the yield curve control works
    ie i think with all the QEs that is going on, without that statement, the market would be pricing in future rate increase which would render the RBA's effort worthless (ie they are trying to convince the market to keep rates down)

  • +1

    no. he should be fired.

  • Unethical

  • Just too much signalling from the RBA this week time around, leave that to the government. The only thing that can be guaranteed is that there will be HL borrowers who underestimate their living expenses or have their circumstances change after loan is funded. Be responsible with your vote on May 21.

    • Be responsible with your vote on May 21.

      Yes,

      Vote for the party that is most likely to 🖨️ 💵.

      • You cast a vote for a member in the lower house and another for a group in the upper house. There are some great independent options out there depending where you are voting.

  • "is this incredibility irresponsible handling of Australias cash rate"

    Nah mate. How can anyone predict world events that have huge impacts on global financial systems.

    Also a side note - When people take out a mortgage, the bank is required to factor in a buffer for 3% rate increase serviceability.
    So unless you lied for your loan, you should be OK.

    Edit: even if on fixed, that term will end in a year or two.

  • This sums it up
    https://twitter.com/Dan_Nahum/status/1522433122981511168

    I think what the RBA should have said is: ‘there is a political and market expectation that we don’t understand supply-side inflation, so we’ve decided to behave like we, in fact, don’t.’

  • Lowe isnt the only decision maker. The rba board has nine members who make the decision and recommendations which can change due to change in market conditions. Not to give them an excuse but Im assuming they didn't factor in the Ukraine war in their original recommendations.

  • +1

    Does anyone really takes out a 30 year home loan based on a RBA Governer's view to 2024?

  • The RBA must live in la la land. Their plan mid last year was to not to even consider raising interest rates until wages growth was 3% and inflation was 2% to 3%. Great plan. What planet are they on?

  • Our tiny little country doesn't really get to make all the big decisions. I would expect you would do better complaining about the US fed decision to raise theirs.

    • All the more reason it was freaking obvious that inflation was going to hit Australia a long, long time before 2024. What's happening in the US, Lowey - dur.

      • Nothing is obvious. Two years ago we were all gonna die and teetering on the next great depression. No one presumed we'd have wildly over performing markets instead.

Login or Join to leave a comment