I would like to invest in the upcoming battery revolution that's about to happen. Does anyone know a good place to start? Thanks.
Investing in Battery Technology
BluebirdV on 08/10/2022 - 17:37
Comments
Gonna blow your mind when you hear about lead acid batteries, young whippersnapper
You're a comedian.
One ETF to look at is ACDC.
It covers all areas from mining to final production across world wide operations.
BHP or Rio Tinto here in OZ.
Eneloops.
Tesla. Ctly. Byd.
ASX: MNS
The key is to pick the company that will win big government contracts.
Remember to sell at peak hype, before people realise its a non-viable plan long term & the share price crashes.
Could you please elaborate on this bit: "a non-viable plan long term"? Thx.
Right now grid level batteries make their money on FCAS payments (frequency control). Essentially the market operator pays suppliers a bonus for responding to the second-to-second & minute to minute variances required to keep the grid stable. The issue is there is only so much FCAS capacity required. As more batteries are installed they are bidding against each other for FCAS payments & the payment declines/they get less calls to provide FCAS.
VIC & SA are already at the point of saturating their FCAS supply.
What is left is electricity arbitrage. Essentially buying power during peak supply & selling it during peak demand, the price difference is profit. The problem is the margin between peak demand & supply is too slim for batteries to make their cost back in a reasonable timeframe. Investors can find better & safer returns. The moment everyone realises we are valuing battery investments based on FCAS driven returns but proposing we scale builds based on serving the larger but not profitable arbitrage market, investors will bail hard.
This problem will be hidden/extended via government subsidies but that wont last, it never does. It will be like rooftop solar. The government locked feed in solar tariff hid the reality that we overbuilt, costs will stay high while the real value of the supply will dip, eventually the gov will realise they cant keep eating the loss & it will all wind down.
With all that said, we are only beginning the hype phase at the moment. Activists are pushing hard & government is eager to throw cash at the problem they have created. Power prices are going to jump 30%+ next year so gov needs to make it look like they are going something. Should be a good time to get in.
Get out before the wind down.
Appreciate you taking the time to reply with such a level of detail!
Activists are pushing hard & government is eager to throw cash at the problem they have created.
Never forget this. The energy issue is all self inflicted by ignorant activists and knee-jerk reactionary governments.
Do some serious research from reputable financial and technology sources. Don’t rely on a hot tip from a non specific question on a bargain forum.
Can you recommend any?
That would be doing your research for you now wouldn’t it.
Just buy lithium stocks.
and get ready to bankrupt when solid state batteries take over.
This just shows you need to do a lot more research.
Start with understanding:
1. Value chain of the industry
2. discover Bottle-necksInvest into the businesses that have good moats in the bottle-neck part of the value-chain. These will be bid up.
I would say Aluminium, Nickel and Cobalt could be interesting bets. Especially the "green" miners and producers and in countries that are friendly to the US.
Papa Elon has been skeptical about lithium (mainly because he cannot buy enough of it) and was pumping the idea of FePO batteries.ACDC and XMET
Easy peasy.
It will never happen.
We have been usin the old lithium tech since dinosaurs age