Is 2023 a Good Time to Get an Electric Car, or Wait till 2025/6 and beyond?

As petrol hit record levels with the removal of the federal fuel subsidy, I'm considering upgrading our family SUV to an EV for petrol-costs savings reason since we already got a 6.6kwh solar system at home (no battery though - should I get one?). The 2022 BYD Atto 3 (less expensive option) and Tesla Y RWD (more expensive option) both looks nice and suits my family needs. Any idea if EV SUVs like BYD Atto or Tesla Y will get cheaper in 2025 and beyond, or should I just buy them in 2023 (both currently with 5 months wait times) to take advantage of earlier fuel and servicing savings?

My employer currently don't have access to novated leasing schemes for EV cars so I can't take advantage of the federal FBT bill for EVs. Also what are everyone's thoughts on the merits of getting a second-hand ex-fleet EV? Should I buy a new EV and drive it to the ground at the 10 years mark? Has anyone done the maths to see if getting an EV car for $50-80k is worth it? Or should I get an equivalent specs ICE SUV for $40k in 2023 and upgrade to EV in 2026/7 when EV tech is more matured? Can anyone see mid-sized SUV EV prices dropping in the coming years?

Are there any groundbreaking EV/battery tech that I will miss out by buying an EV in 2023 vs 2025/6/7 or beyond? (800-1000km single charge range, perhaps?)

I know that's a lot of questions but I appreciate any advice. I understand the costs of getting an EV car also includes ancillary costs like installing EV charger/s in our house, but if anyone can shed some light regarding the basic installing costs with electrician fees that would be much appreciated. In true Ozbargain spirit, my main consideration overall would be getting good value for my money whether I go with EV or a ICE car. Thanks.

Comments

            • @RockyRaccoon: For every problem there's a solution and the amount of technical innovation going on right now is pretty incredible.
              I wouldn't be surprised if in 10 years they come out with a retrofittable battery pack for certain cars, just look at the third party suppliers on Aliexpress/alibaba to see what they're offering.

              Just look at the number of companies retrofitting 70's & 80's landrovers/alfa romeos etc with electric engines and batteries. It's not exactly rocket science.

              As for the Tesla it'd be the cost and time to get parts, not the risk that would write it off.
              Tesla's batteries are constrained in supply because of demand. Second hand parts for tesla are in the same league.

              You could also apply this to an ICE engine, supercars and luxury vehicles are written off all the time solely due to this.

        • +2

          Rare earth metals are not really rare. They were rare 200 years ago and the name sort of stuck. They are not really used in lithium ion batteries either. Rare earth magnet DC motors are highly efficient and a popular choice for EVs, but they are not the only option.

          The main problem big business has with rare earths is that China does most of the mining and processing and effectively controls the world market. Anyone going into serious competition has to bear in mind that China has a stockpile large enough to lower the price long enough to drive them bankrupt.

          As for Lithium, the world is not running out any time soon. Industrial production takes time to ramp up. It's quite possible that demand will outstrip supply for the next decade. There's also the possibility that due to excessive investment, at some point supply will outstrip demand causing a glut in the market and the price to crash. This is a problem for the mining industry in general and why we see so many boom and bust cycles with mineral resources.

    • +3

      BEV batteries and motors are designed to outlive the rest of the car, so think hundreds of thousands km.

      Hybrids are a carbon offset scam that legacy manufacturers use to comply with developed countries emission regulations.

      If you get a fossil hybrid you’re essentially getting a normal fossil car with additional tiny electric motor and battery adding extra weight and radically increasing maintenance costs - the dealerships need special training to service them and all the extra complexity means higher repair costs if anything in the complex hybrid drivetrain gives out (BEVs are order of magnitude simpler construction. The batteries usually only fail in the first year or so, due to rare manufacturing defects, which are covered with generous warranty)

      • +1

        Good tips everyone

  • Can anyone see mid-sized SUV EV prices dropping in the coming years?

    Not with inflation at 8%

    Are there any groundbreaking EV/battery tech that I will miss out by buying an EV in 2023 vs 2025/6/7 or beyond? (800-1000km single charge range, perhaps?)

    Doubt it. Current mainstream EV's have a real world range of about 350-500km. Battery tech isn't going to double over the next five years.

    • Model S will do 800k's
      But yes, mainstream cars are still stuck at 500ish k's, this would be the point where i jump on it when they reach around 600k's range for $40k.

      • +1

        Why not just have 1EV and 1ICE car if you have to have 2 cars? Use one for your holidays and the other is the commute etc.

        • If you're a 2 car family this is the best strategy for me.

          A beater ICE which you probably already own, and the BEV for the majority of your trips.

          Road trips and weekend runabout in the oil burner, the BEV does the long domestic trips and charges on the weekend and WFH days during daylight if you're using solar.

    • i thought there are already some batt techs coming up which double the storage amount.

      personally, i'll wait for second hand ones of those future ones.

  • For me, it’s not quite there.. yet.

  • I've got a deposit on an Ioniq 5 RWD, trying to decide whether to bite the bullet and go with it.

    The long and short of my pretty detailed maths: Don't try and justify it as an economic decision. It's an emotional one or, at best, a social one directed at reducing your environmental footprint.

    And remember the more years you put in your spreadsheet to justify the expenditure, the greater the opportunity cost of that upfront cash.

    You can't make the economics work unless you see fuel prices going to $3/l and electricity hovering around where it is now, both of which are arguably pretty unlikely (petrol goes down during an economic downturn usually). With solar there's a better argument, but without a battery at home that means your car has to be home to charge at least once a week during the day.

    But don't buy a Tesla. Elon Musk is a f*wit and there is a lot of competition coming onto the market.

  • +2

    Just buy now. If you wait for better tech there will always be something coming soon that’ll be better than what’s available now. If you want to save money of petrol, there is 2 ways. Don’t drive your current car as much or buy something that doesn’t take petrol.

    Prices are no going to come down. Inflation and demand will see to that. The only thing that will make EVs any cheaper is budget models or very short range models.

    Just buy a BYD if you want to wait for ‘better tech’. I’m certain there will be a good market in used EVs in a few years and you’ll be able to sell your EV easily.

    • +2

      I’m certain there will be a good market in used EVs in a few years and you’ll be able to sell your EV easily.

      This is a good point. There's already huge waiting lists to buy EVs, and that's with just a small tech savvy and/or environmentally conscious slice of the population wanting one.

      When average Joe realises petrol guzzlers are slower, AND cost triple to run, AND cost more in servicing, AND their used value is crashing as more people catch on, AND his friends are all buying EVs… demand for EVs is only going up.

      • AND their used value is crashing

        Have you looked at the used car market lately.

        If you bought a LandCruiser 5yrs ago, put 100,000km on it since then, you could still sell if for more than you paid new.

  • +1

    How about going in the middle with mild hybrid or PHEV?
    Mazda is releasing CX60 soon, looks good

    • +2

      Mild hybrid seems kinda pointless. PHEV is a little more sensible if you can run it solely on battery most of the time, but apparently many users don’t take proper advantage of this and end up using more fuel because the car is heavier than petrol only.

      • Mild hybrid saves some petrol i think. Agree PHEV is more sensible but more expensive..

        • +1

          Mild hybrid does save some petrol, but not sure if it’s worth the additional cost and complexity.

          • @Euphemistic: Hybrids have much higher maintenance cost due to complexity of the drivetrain. Dealers hate them, and the bills with higher mileage are eye-watering, esp. if you're unlucky and things start failing in the high-voltage system.
            PHEV are still just hybrids - the electric range is laughable (<30km real-world) and the electric-only power is limited (i.e. <100bhp) - if you press accelerator harder it will kick in the fossil engine.

            In 2022 there are good options for cheap, real EVs, like BYD, MG, Leaf etc. Otherwise I'd wait and drive your current car for a bit longer until prices of EVs go to level you can afford (or our gov wakes up and starts supporting the transition)

  • +2

    You over think it. Wait until vehicle to grid is ratified for Australia. You have a car and a battery. Save heaps of money.

    You actually also need to check what power prices are going to be. Scare tactics at the moment. Hard to see government not going to intervene in the gas market to bring power prices down (like WA).

    I have 6.6kw solar. In winter I import net 5kwh (mostly for overnight). Right now 2kwh. Export is 8kwh in winter and currently doing 20kwh+ Drive a hybrid 4L/100km and doing about 8k/km a year. If I went and bought an EV and a battery none of it would ever pay it self back.

    • +1

      Hybrids arent available . Long waits

      • +1

        Read it again!?

        Told OP to keep his car.

        Hybrid is a personal example how buying an expensive EV and battery doesn't pay off for me. Not advice to buy a Hybrid.

        • +1

          I didnt say you did

  • +1

    You would expect a 2025 model will be better, with more features, and more choices, in 2025, than a 2023 model in 2025.

  • +3

    I'm also in the same situation, with an old Toyota Corolla, and a 13kW system. From a purely financial perspective, I would wait for V2H/V2G technology to mature, and for prices of EVs to come down. This should be in the next few years as inflation in Australia settles and supply chain issues in China allow for a wider range of EVs to be manufactured and come onto the market.

    The average ICE driver drives around 12,500km per year. With a worst case scenario of 8L/100km, $2/L of petrol, you'd be saving up to $2000/year on petrol. Using the following "best case" figures to calculate the electricity costs of running an EV for the same distance - $0.069/kwh (the amount in foregone feed-in tariff you'd otherwise receive), 15kwh/100km gives us $129.38. However the actual costs are likely to be higher given EVs can consume anywhere up to 30kwh/100km.

    My Corolla costs around $8000 (market value) plus $1500/year petrol plus $260/year for two services. Compare that to a brand new EV, which would cost an outlay of ~$65k to save say $1600 ($1370 on petrol and $260 on servicing) - the maths [i]currently[/i] doesn't really add up for me. Of course, the equation might be different if I was racking up mad mileage as a taxi driver

    • +1

      8l per 100km is worse case?

      • +1

        For a medium ICE passenger car comparable to a Tesla 3 - I would say so, yes

        • Some people don't know how it is to compare apples to apples.

        • +1

          Brand new you might get 8L but as the engine ages you'll find that ticking up rather quickly.

        • +1

          i dont think youll get performance of an EV out of a 8l per 100km car

          • +2

            @Tleyx: Depends on what you mean by performance.

            It gets you from A to B and costs a lot more. The time you save with the acceleration compensate for the additional money spent? If you are talking about feeling like you are punched in the guts every time you take off and having your intestines ripped out every time you brake late and spending time at detailers cleaning up the puke?

            It is like telling everyone they should buy a (fire brigade standard) fire hose to water their front yard.

            • @netjock: I am just saying apples for apples you aint getting a like ice car that does 8l per 100km

              • @Tleyx: I was more referring to the class of vehicle (medium sedan), more so than performance

                • @inasero: Ol fair enough if you arent comparing like for like

    • +3

      might be different if I was racking up mad mileage as a taxi driver

      Now the question is why they drive Camry Hybrids and not Teslas. Maybe they are onto something.

      • Good point! Why DO they drive Camry Hybrids and Priuses?

    • +4

      I think what needs to be factored in is if you already need / want to purchase a new vehicle. There wouldn't be a world where it's economical to replace an old existing vehicle with a new one in general. It'd always be hard to justify purely on economics even from swapping old ICE to new ICE unless the gas usage difference is huge.

      So if you're already in the market for a new car then your valuations need to adjust again as well. you'd most likely be comparing a $40k-50k vehicle to a Tesla 3 on features. Then suddenly the payback doesnt seem as insane.

  • +1

    The time is now. buying NEW petrol/diesel in 2023 is insane

    • Yeah things may change faster than people think.

      With solar on 30% of homes and growing fast, more and more people are gradually clueing in that EVs are cheaper than they seem.

      If EV manufacturers can ever catch up with demand, there'll be a glut of used petrol vehicles on the market.

      Remember what happened to the people who spent thousands on big CRT TVs just before plasmas and LCDs got affordable?

    • yes, this!
      If you buy a fossil clunker you'll be stuck with it for a few years.
      Because the whole market is rapidly transitioning to EV, the resell value of your fossil car will drop like a rock in those years.

      • +4

        No its not rapidly transitioning to EV.

        Half of the 10 top selling cars in Australia last month were diesel. These aren't even economical cars let alone EV cars. The number of EV's in the top 10? Zero.

        Maybe when we see at least 5 EVs in the top 10 list then maybe we can start saying its a rapid transition

  • +2

    If you want to save the most money AND help the environment almost as much as full EV, going hybrid is a very good idea. Toyotas are good and my Hyundai hybrid is great. As an added bonus, if you drive smoothly your brakes last a very very long time, just like an EV.

    • a hyundai hybid is like 35k - a byd is about 45k

      • BYD doesnt have the track record (in my mind) yet for me to put them on the same value scale as top tier brands.

  • +10

    I am at the "drive my current ICE into the ground" stage. When that carks it, I will hopefully be getting an EV.

    From an environmental perspective, keeping your ICE until it dies is likely to be the best option unless you are moving from a semi truck to a Tesla. From a financial perspective, if you do it right, buying an EV now could make sense.

    I am hoping my current ICE (2008 Volkswagen Golf) gives me another 3 or 4 years as that would line up with when I will likely be looking for a car with more space anyways.

  • Is the FBT exemption for EV for novated lease already approved and implemented?

    • +2

      OP isn't a company.

      Theory behind FBT exemption is to lower the cost of ownership for companies so they can flog off second hand cars cheap later on. It is like JobKeeper for Gerry. Giving FBT exemption to those that don't need it, trickle down economics.

      Ex company cars would be as popular as council / rental fleets. White, base models with high kilometers (possibly thrashed).

    • +1

      yes

    • +2

      Last I read the bill is stuck in senate a week ago, so… not yet

  • +1

    Whats your current car? How old is it? How many kilometres has it done? What sort of condition is it in? Does it suit your current situation? How far do you travel each day? Do you do big trips? Do you tow stuff?

    Do you own it outright?

    If the car you have will last you a few years just wait.

  • +8

    The best time to buy an EV is the moment you declare that you can comfortably afford it. You should immediately purchase it because it will bring you unimaginable happiness and comfort for a very long time.

  • +2

    I put a deposit on a Byd and whilst they look a solid choice and actually affordable they still aren't cheap and would be the most expensive car my household has ever purchased. Petrol just isn't that expensive as I have an efficient car and so doubt I'll take delivery.

    I also have a good solar setup that wasn't even approved for feed in to boot so my "fuel" would be entirely free when the sun is out. The payback is simply far too long with plenty of WFH for me.

  • Just do whatever you want. There's never a good time to wait and buy something cause there's always going to be a better time in the future and prices only ever go up.

    If you have the money, do it now.

  • +3

    Get an e-bike.

    Car dependency sucks.

    • This, its much faster to get to work.

      Anyone got recommendations?

      • All depends on your budget and usage

        • Daily commuter. Want something with internal hub gearing, ie low maintenance

  • +1

    I dread having no choice to but to buy an EV. I live in a regional area with no public transport as an option, I drive 60kms round trip to work each day and use a 4WD to tow a trailer and cart things around. Living hours from the capital or to go anywhere an EV just doesn't stack up… YET. I'm not against them at all, I've driven them and its cool for sure but for me to trade my ICE for EV does not work. I'll drive my ICE until I'm forced through financial disincentivizes (masked as 'choice').

    • +1

      Well if the bottom falls out of the ICE market as many are predicting you'll have your pick of second hand vehicles on the cheap.

      • I doubt that ICE used prices will go down much, as manufacturers move away from their production, but BEV not yet better suited in some use cases. Demand for used some ICE will go up.

    • Getting an EV for your commute would seem wise. 60km daily is well within the range of an EV the money you save on fuel would more than pay for keeping your old 4wd for weekends.

  • +2

    you could save money if you sell your current car and buy a low km second hand nissan leaf for like 35-40k and charge it via your solar, thats the only way it would financially make sense

  • -1

    Theres barely enough electricity to get through summer as it is, and they want everyone to go electric.

    It takes 5-10 years to build a simple road here, how long will it take to roll out hundreds of ev charging stations.

    Then the massive amount of waste that will happen every 10 years from ev batteries being thrown out/replaced.

    Basically, ev is not a long term solution, the infrastructure is just not there.

    • +3

      Many EV owners don't use charging stations very often, or charge much from the grid either.

      • +1

        Current ev owners dont charge from the grid because their in the minority.

        Once the majority are forced to ev, they will have no choice but to charge from the grid.

        Imagine the news headlines during summer 40 degree days then: sorry everyone, no a/c or vehicle charging tonight, we just dont have capacity, just like we havent for the past 10 years…

        • +1

          Many EV owners don't use charging stations very often, or charge much from the grid either, because they charge at home using PV solar. I myself know several people who do this, with minor grid top up when needed.

          • @noz: Anyone who drives to work for a daytime job would be using grid power overnight.

            Agree that most ev users now wouldn’t be using charge stations often because their daily usage would be well within the range of the vehicle and they’ll top up at hole cheaper overnight.

            • @Euphemistic: I don't disagree that grid use occurs, to do so would be ignorant.. as I've said twice : Many EV owners don't use charging stations very often, or charge much from the grid either. I did not say all, or even most. My point to who I first replied to is that not everyone with EVs is causing the "barely enough electricity issue" (if it even exists), or is affected by the lack of charging stations.

    • +1

      I agree in principle but, on the flipside, my electricity distributor is paying me $200 to not export excess solar to the grid in certain days where solar export is so high it makes the grid unstable. The point is the grid is unstable at both the high and low side of capacity.

      • Absolutely, here in SA we're often seeing solar energy exceeding grid demand, to the point that there is too much power on some days and the DNSP is having to remote shut down inverters in some areas. Soon any new solar system installed here will need to have their export limit real-time controllable by the authority.
        EVs are a great way to soak up this excess energy, but it does obviously need to suit the circumstance of the user (e.g. will their EV be home during the day). With more people WFH these days, it's quite possible.

  • Depends on how you want to use it. It is not worth waiting for new battery tech (which is the only significant change to wait for) as unfortunately, that is taking longer than the hype that was created to get investment in. Cars will do what they always do and improve bit by bit every year. Batteries were supposed to have gotten cheaper but world issues have stopped that and any future issues with China are going to significantly impact that. I personally would not buy an ICE vehicle now as I think it will be difficult to sell in five years' time when the market has shifted a lot more (as that is what I think it will do). You need to work out your beliefs and what you think will happen (try and read through the marketing and myths), and then determine are you more of an early adopter (although I think that boat has passed) or a struggle to change and happy to stay with the only thing you know. For most that commit to this change, I think it is generally when they find a car they like (and there are not a lot of choices yet) at a price they can afford and a time when they are ready to buy. Unfortunately, it is really just a new car market at the moment thanks to the overinflated price of all used cars. If you like one, I'd suggest seeing if you can put down an order (with a refundable deposit if possible) so you can get into one in the next year or two.

  • +1

    The answer is, wait as long as you can on your next car. Then buy whatever the best EV you can afford. In a couple of years there will be heaps of range.

    • But then a couple of years after a couple of years from now there will be even better features … do we then wait for that stage?

      • I think the best step up in range is going to happen in the next 2-3 years.

        • That’s great but not everyone want to pay for bucket load of extra range that only embers used twice a year. I’d be happy with 200km range on a second car or 400km range for a ‘holidays’ car.

          What we really think we want is 5min charging, but reality is the vast majority don’t need it and can work around it.

  • +3

    The best EV's use rails 🚃

  • Saw an article on predicted and confirmed evs for au market for next 4-6 years and the ones i have any interest will be around 2025+. So i will wait ^_^

  • -1

    EV= paying the fuel in advance

  • +2

    I have been looking at EV for next vehicle and looking to use it as the overnight battery for our property then re-charge with the solar during the day except in winter. To do this the vehicle you purchase needs to have Vehicle to home / grid capability which not many have in the Australian market yet. So i will wait till more of those become available in the market.

  • You may as well add yourself to the waiting list for your EV of choice, if the range and available charging places suits you then why not.

  • Weren't we supposedly promised hydrogen or that other reactor power.

    Where's the delorean fuel sell when you need it.

  • As your in Brissy , I would recommend a company like Red Earth Energy Storage based in Darra South Brisbane for a solar home battery.
    They , and others like them are making battery packs here in Oz that sell at significantly less than the equivalent Tesla Powerwall .
    Their smallest home battery is about 1/3 the of the cost .
    You should recoup any initial capital invested within a few years , especially if electricity prices continue to rise .

    To go to an ev would require a larger battery unless you could charge during the day ,
    but you could use the cars battery as shared with the house.
    Lots of options just watch installation & hardware costs.
    Bigger Batteries may be the simplest most effective way to go.

  • I saw one of those new Kia EV6 cars the other day and thought "Well at least they're trying to get better, even if the back looks like its melted" Then I looked up the price…

    NINETY FIVE THOUSAND DOLLARS FOR A KIA!!!!

    • was 70ish on their website when I checked for SA.

      • Try visit a kia dealer and get a drive away price.

        They won't even want to compete with polestar when i test drive the ev6.

  • Unless you do a massive amount of km

    Are you wanting to upgrade to a new car anyway?

    Yes > get EV
    No > keep current car

    Dont bother with a house battery IMO

  • what i feel you should really do is wait till the right EV car you want based on your own personal criteria appears (i.e. number of seats, km's per charge, cost, design, everything)
    then once that car is out…..wait about 2-3 years, don't be an early adopter, be 2nd or 3rd in line to risk your money on it.

  • If cost saving is your main objective, then you need to work out your total cost of ownership for the duration you intend to keep either car

    What is the currently value of your ICE car and what will you likely sell it for in X years' time.
    Servicing and maintenance costs
    Fuel expenses

    Compare that to the same period you wish to keep an EV. And specifically which EV, since the BYD Atto 3 costs $700 a year to service whereas the Tesla has no service intervals and the BYD might not have as good a resale value as a Tesla?

  • I've got a raging boner for an EV but all the current offerings are too small for a full sized family. Not interested in small SUV sized EVs. I want a minivan or landcruiser sized EV. If Volvo made a XC90 EV I'd be all over it. If Polestar made a 7 seater Santa Fe sized EV, I'd get it. But alas currently it's just shitty small CX30 and XC40 sized, tiny fkn… wannabe SUVs for dinks who like to ski.

  • Wait a few years. by then there will be more second EVs on the market and more EV choices with likely better range and technology. Who knows if they will be cheaper by then but alot of EV manufacturers would have started to recover their return on invest by then (such as R&D etc).

    Also consider a diesel for a family SUV. It might cost abit more to fill up then petrol but you get better fuel economy for long drives. Diesel cars have more torque as well.

  • +1

    Atto is V2L, for people who work from home mostly. I think 10kw solar panel + 1 x V2H EV would be great. The car battery can be charged during day time by PV while feed the house back during night.

  • +2

    I would only consider EV going ahead, but think it's still too early to make a commitment and worth waiting a few years if you can.

    Also I'd avoid Tesla like the plague - lots of reliability issues plus the way Elon/Tesla is going atm I don't think I would trust or support that company at all.

    The Hyundai Ioniqs and Kia ev6 are meant to be pretty amazing though and around that price range.

    • Tesla is vaporware

  • -2

    Teslas are going to be worth pennies to their current dollar after they go bankrupt and cant do software updates by 2025/6

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