Is 2023 a Good Time to Get an Electric Car, or Wait till 2025/6 and beyond?

xdigger on 08/11/2022 - 14:51
Last edited 08/11/2022 - 14:52

As petrol hit record levels with the removal of the federal fuel subsidy, I'm considering upgrading our family SUV to an EV for petrol-costs savings reason since we already got a 6.6kwh solar system at home (no battery though - should I get one?). The 2022 BYD Atto 3 (less expensive option) and Tesla Y RWD (more expensive option) both looks nice and suits my family needs. Any idea if EV SUVs like BYD Atto or Tesla Y will get cheaper in 2025 and beyond, or should I just buy them in 2023 (both currently with 5 months wait times) to take advantage of earlier fuel and servicing savings?

My employer currently don't have access to novated leasing schemes for EV cars so I can't take advantage of the federal FBT bill for EVs. Also what are everyone's thoughts on the merits of getting a second-hand ex-fleet EV? Should I buy a new EV and drive it to the ground at the 10 years mark? Has anyone done the maths to see if getting an EV car for $50-80k is worth it? Or should I get an equivalent specs ICE SUV for $40k in 2023 and upgrade to EV in 2026/7 when EV tech is more matured? Can anyone see mid-sized SUV EV prices dropping in the coming years?

Are there any groundbreaking EV/battery tech that I will miss out by buying an EV in 2023 vs 2025/6/7 or beyond? (800-1000km single charge range, perhaps?)

I know that's a lot of questions but I appreciate any advice. I understand the costs of getting an EV car also includes ancillary costs like installing EV charger/s in our house, but if anyone can shed some light regarding the basic installing costs with electrician fees that would be much appreciated. In true Ozbargain spirit, my main consideration overall would be getting good value for my money whether I go with EV or a ICE car. Thanks.

Automotive Electric Vehicle

Comments

  • Muzeeb on 08/11/2022 - 14:54
    +39

    As petrol hit record levels

    As electricity hits record levels too

    • xdigger on 08/11/2022 - 15:07
      +15

      Mate if only Dell were selling EV cars I would have hit you up for a deal ;)

      • [Deactivated] on 09/11/2022 - 21:42
        +2

        what is this dell thing going on? I've seen this quiet a number of times.

        • Caped Baldy on 10/11/2022 - 10:08
          +2

          I believe a CS agent helped people get a price error monitor - 38 inch for $150

        • mightyfes on 10/11/2022 - 17:00

          Yes it is quietly popular.

    • chuq on 08/11/2022 - 15:44
      +8

      So instead of 15-20% the cost of petrol it's going to be 25-30%? Oh no.

      OP said he has solar so sounds like he intends to charge from those anyway.

        • CocaKoala on 10/11/2022 - 23:05
          +1

          Can't we put the solar panels on the other side of the world where it's day time and charge our cars?

          Wait…

        • Dsiee on 12/11/2022 - 10:02

          Have you heard of the weekend and afternoon? I have a couple hours of solar every arvo after work that could recharge about 50km worth (house battery is already full) plus at least one whole weekend day.

    • Drakesy on 08/11/2022 - 16:04
      +9

      Not if you have PV ;)

      • CommuterPolluter on 11/11/2022 - 19:42

        My car is parked at home of an evening. PV would help sometimes, but most times not.

        • Drakesy on 11/11/2022 - 22:38
          +1

          Just leave it at home a day or two a week or on the weekend and you get a week's worth of charge

          • CommuterPolluter on 12/11/2022 - 11:06

            @Drakesy: Fair point. Still wouldnā€™t be a silver bullet for me as we have a single-car garage and two cars. Sounds like it would provide value though. Hopefully this all leads to councils being a bit more realistic about parking requirements in new developments.

    • SF3 on 08/11/2022 - 22:14
      +8

      Pedal power transport might be a better option given the cost of fuel.

      • Vater Woods on 09/11/2022 - 17:14
        +3

        Just wondering the efficiency rating of muscles and flesh.

        Like how many KG of food/100km.

        • based on 09/11/2022 - 17:39

          I think it's around 25% from calories in food to watts at the pedals

          • Kangal on 09/11/2022 - 22:54

            @based: From my estimates, it is closer to 4%

            • based on 09/11/2022 - 23:28

              @Kangal: That 25% number i'm thinking of is only for energy in excess of what you'd use if you weren't riding, excluding the ~8700kj per day you'll use anyway

              They're trigger happy with their rounding but they say about 25%
              https://www.welovecycling.com/wide/2020/05/14/how-to-convertā€¦

              • Kangal on 09/11/2022 - 23:42

                @based: I see.
                Still, that's a figure taken from an athlete, and someone who is proficient rider with good gear. Having fat humans, with bad form, and cheap gear… see that 24% figure plummet. So overall, an inefficient gas-guzzler is still better than a world-class peddler.

                Someone with a solar sail, battery, and fan would put everything else to shame. In some cases efficiency is greater than 100% because you would be creating energy as you move, because there's so much small "hidden" energy waiting to be harnessed from the wind and the sun. But if it must be 24/7, it will require a larger heavy battery to release stored energy during when the wind is low and without sunlight.

                • based on 10/11/2022 - 10:02
                  +1

                  @Kangal: I don't see that efficiency changing much for trained v untrained. How much power you can put out consistently and for how long yeah, but not the efficiency of converting food to power.
                  That's what the body can output, so before any inefficiencies of the bike, which are going to be fairly small at the speeds we regular people ride at.
                  Bikes will have a big advantage v cars when moving one person because there's only 10-20kg of 'machine' to move, with a car you've got over a hundred times the extra weight.

                  Doing some napkin math it'd take me ~8000kj to ride 100k
                  Petrol has somewhere around 25Mj/L. At 6 L/100km that's 150Mj, over 18x the energy to do it on a bike. Even filling the car with 5 people the bike is still over 3x better
                  I wasn't expecting that, I thought a loaded car would have the advantage

        • based on 10/11/2022 - 10:08

          By my math for person on a bike, if we could run on petrol 0.25L/100km
          On white rice, 1.5kg/100km

        • Che0063 on 10/11/2022 - 10:11
          +5

          Using https://www.tribology-abc.com/calculators/cycling.htm

          We see at a moderate 20km/hr cycliing speed (for the average person) for 5 hours on flat ground with no wind (to travel 100km), 12 095kJ was burnt, with 12.5% of that, or 1516kJ, actually making it to the wheels.

          At 2360kJ per Big Mac burger, that's 5.125 burgers. At about 233g/burger, that's 1.2kg of food per 100km, or $32.8 per 100km.

          Conservatively, let's say a car uses 10L/100km of petrol. Even at $2.5/L, that's $25 to drive 100km

          So purely financially speaking, you're better off driving than cycling.

          This is ignoring all the health, environment, congestion benefits, as well as ignoring the fact that our bodies process the calories in food differently but I hope it gives you some reference :}

          • Zondor on 10/11/2022 - 12:23
            +2

            @Che0063: So great for fat people, bad for skinny people!

          • AR-MEL on 11/11/2022 - 15:51

            @Che0063: Add to that Rego, Oil and tyres..

      • teddiebear on 10/11/2022 - 16:56
        +1

        Flintstones. … meet the Flintsones, they're the modern stone age family

    • Serapis on 10/11/2022 - 20:33

      Do you have a deal on petrol Muzeeb?

    • WilliamDGH on 11/11/2022 - 13:14

      I work from home and have solar, I did the math that I could charge an EV purely using excess solar power. Thus it would be free. Of couse if there is a raining day or I need to chage it quickly there will be cost.

  • MarsTitan on 08/11/2022 - 15:10
    +21

    Wait for another 3~5 years. Upgrading to BEV will cost you more than you can save in fuel cost.

    • tissue on 08/11/2022 - 15:21
      +4

      Agreed. From my sums a BEV is borderline or a very slight saving including the leasing FBT discount and looking forward over 5 years, but that could all change if power prices go up (as expected). Plus the inevitable crunch that will happen in the next 1-2 years, where there are many more BEVs on the road but hardly any new charging infrastructure is put in place. If you hold off till 2024-2025 there will be much more competition in the market which should lead to lower prices or at least just better selection of models ā€“ even moreso that you cannot access the novated lease FBT discount anyway.

      Ive been looking but my concern is its like buying a 1st Generation Android/Iphone ā€“ lots of teething issues and bugs. E.g. having a car with great technology and the best batteries (BYD) but they cant meet vehicle ADRs, or having a normal ICE manufacturer who hasnā€™t made BEVs before and their issues (Toyota and the bZ4X, Nissan and the ~10 years with the Leaf to get only a marginally acceptable vehicle).

      • randomdude14 on 08/11/2022 - 15:35
        +3

        love the android/iphone analogy. We've experienced this with the first Tesla Model 3 delivered to us (Melbourne) in 2019. Even things like paint issues etc. It seems to have massively improved in the 2022 batch (heard Shanghai factory is better QC than Freemont, Cal)

        • Kangal on 09/11/2022 - 23:36
          +14

          Agreed.
          But the analogy is a little flawed. We saw massive technological increases going from the (2007) iPhone 2G, 3G, 3GS, 4, 4S, 5, and 5S (2013). For Android it went from the (2008) HTC G1, Moto Dext, Moto Milestone, SGS1, SGS2, Note1, Note2, Note3, Note4, S6+, S7+ (2016). Then things slowed down and eventually plateaued. We're talking improved efficiency and improve performance by huge factors and happening every 3-9 month cycles. So for anyone paying attention, the progress was obvious and inevitable.

          The analogy fails here because EVs actually don't have that much progress to push on. Compare the early version Model S to the latest version Model S, and yes there has been decent progress, but nowhere near the scale we saw in smartphones. The fact is we actually will NOT see any significant technological increases, at least not in rapid succession. What we can hope for, is massive QC improvements to the cars, steady decrease in price, and gradual improvements in the technology (battery, charging, motors, etc etc).

          rant:
          However, the whole EV things is a little overblown. To convert every user of ICE Car to FULL-EV is actually a big ask when it comes to the amount of minerals and lithium required to manufacture them. So that's a massive mining effort, transportation, manufacturing, distribution, then sales. And the problems don't stop there, there's still the energy crisis to worry about. It requires new power lines, new power grid, more solar panels, home battery systems, and obviously for people to own a home*. All of that simply to increase efficiency of transportation.

          Well, there is more than one way to skin a cat.
          The obvious answer is that Australia should build a lot more trains and bus-ways, all running on renewable energy, but build a very strong network of these public transports in the top populous cities. Then make public transportation 100% free. This will make them more utilised, and less people having a car, and even using a car. It will go a great length to reduce traffic, which also increases the efficiency of commute.

          But why stop there.
          Have the legacy automakers start making their cars more efficient. We basically hit a wall in the late-90s, as cars really didn't get much more efficient (they just got better at cheating the benchmarks). An easy way to boost a car's efficiency without going Full-EV is to go Half-EV. The smart way is to have a 20kWh small lithium battery, slow eMotors on rear wheels, regenerative braking, and a very efficient petrol engine. Then simply use the EV from going 0kph-40kph, while the petrol handles the power going from 30kph-140kph. During accelerating the batteries get depleted, then the engine smoothly kicks in, then when you start hitting the brakes the regen charges up the battery. If the user starts driving on the highway, the engine slowly recharges the battery again. Or if the battery is very low, it might start getting charged up by the engine during even the normal commute. If there's an issue, the engine can take over and handle acceleration too, which is conventional ICE Vehicle, and that is pretty inefficient. Basically the "hybrid" ethos that we see from Toyota. We "should" see this technique adopted everywhere, which "would" give us a lot of breathing room to actually allow us to transition slowly to a full-ev model.

          *That last one is a thorn in Australia's shoe, as either property prices will need to crash by -50% or people's income needs to magically increase by x3 for it to actually be affordable to buy a house/primary residential property in the first place.

          • Euphemistic on 10/11/2022 - 09:22

            @Kangal: 20kwh is not a small battery.

            • Kangal on 10/11/2022 - 15:12

              @Euphemistic: Well yeah kinda. It's "large" compared to the usual 5kWh batteries in many hybrids, but it's "small" compared to the Full-EV that have 60kWh-140kWh battery's.

              My point was this was the safest transition method, as it reduces our dependence on fossil fuels but doesn't eliminate it.

              It's a bit of a juxtaposition with Australia's wealth, city population, and sun but having low Solar and EV adoption…. contrast to North Europe where they have high EV adoption and Solar despite being more spread out and having much less Sun.

          • Che0063 on 10/11/2022 - 10:12
            +2

            @Kangal: Top answer. I have not seen such a high quality analysis of EVs in australia for a long time.

          • yoba on 10/11/2022 - 21:50
            +2

            @Kangal: can't agree with hitting the wall in the late 90s in terms of cars efficiency. To bring one, the engines of the same size have become much less thirsty. Smaller engines evolved to a greater power output.

      • bulletbill88 on 10/11/2022 - 09:17
        +1

        This. Our work has started adding some BEVs to the fleet. Colleague took one on a 650km round trip (Hobart to Burnie and back). When he got to Burnie the one charger in town had three cars waiting to recharge. He came back a few hours later, only one car waiting. Then after he got on the charger, two hours wait to fully recharge for return trip to Hobart.

        Iā€™m sure BEVs are the future but I donā€™t have the time or the patience to manage the logistics required for being an early adopter. If you are only using for short runs around town and can recharge at home overnight they would be great, but taking them on road trips just does not seem very convenient at all right now.

        • Euphemistic on 10/11/2022 - 09:24
          +1

          While infrastructure is not so good, BEV is only ā€˜goodā€™ for local trips and charging at home. At this point we need to understand their limitations.

          Can you imagine what the first petrol powered cars had to put up with in regard to infrastructure?

          Right now, itā€™s also important to show demand for infrastructure so it gets built. Without many EVs there wonā€™t be many chargers. Catch 22

        • ItsMeAgro on 10/11/2022 - 09:34
          +4

          Yeah road trips are still not ideal, but, this problem is massively overblown.

          How many people go on more than one 300km road trip a year? 10%? 1%?

          A huge proportion of cars on the road never travel more than 30ks a day and can just charge overnight (for electricity that costs less than a third of the equivalent petrol).

          Many families/couples even have two cars, and only one would need to be able to do longer trips.

  • ESEMCE on 08/11/2022 - 15:13
    +50

    The cheapest option will be to keep the vehicle you currently own and drive it into the ground.
    Fuel is cheap even at $2/L

    • techno2000 on 08/11/2022 - 15:23
      +32

      Yeah I find it very funny when people mention they are buying an electric car to save money.
      You want to get rid of your existing petrol car for a small amount and then spend $50k to $75k to "save money"
      Depending on how much you travel every year that $50k to $75k is enough for travelling a lifetime on petrol.

      • randomdude14 on 08/11/2022 - 15:33
        +8

        I think the preface here is that "for people who're dropping $50-70k for a nice family car" :D

        • resisting the urge on 11/11/2022 - 13:18

          For anyone addicted to automotive consumerism, my advice is the same as your local meth addict's… E.g.

          'You're still better off buying ICE, man!'

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfEwp7BUbUo&t=288s

          Unless you are spending 90k+, and: want to have your car connected to the Internet (be hackable 24x7), and actually want to participate in Elon's oppressive video, audio, location and activity surveillance experiments.

          Important to consider the amount of time you will be paying for electricity when you add a car to your overall energy footprint. We tend to over-estimate the amount of solar power we can effectively charge with, coming from our solar systems as there are so many variables. It's easy to end up drawing more from the grid even if you avoid charging during peak periods.

          • randomdude14 on 11/11/2022 - 15:17

            @resisting the urge: If everyone thinks like that, products would never mature - some people do love the new tech and it is superior in many fronts. But of course it is not for everyone.

            In terms of being hackable etc, its all FUD unless you're joking. Most of company data is going to the cloud now, exploits do happen, but nothing that undermines the benefits of it. 2 million Teslas on the road and how many hack reports are actually verified? I think it will happen at some stage, at some scale. But for now, it is all FUD.

            In terms of economics and energy footprint, EVs have already proven it. We have done about 20,000km per year over the last 4 years primarily on solar, except a handful of times a year at a destination charger.

            • resisting the urge on 11/11/2022 - 16:14

              @randomdude14: Actually the constant 'phoning home' with all the sensorial data is the one reason I don't own a Tesla. Addicted as I am, and as a result, never will.

              And I can assure you, I have never feared uncertainty, or had trouble with doubt.

              I just know very well how accessible, and how used, the data they collect is.

              And enough of the current law around the extents to which it can be used, and how what is collected now will inevitably become used- and abused. Only way too drive one is with the Internet hacked into an off state, and I have no doubt that will break warranty and even cause a raft of catastrophic failures.

      • Makaveli99 on 09/11/2022 - 18:50

        Yea a lot of people get fooled

      • t_c on 10/11/2022 - 01:31
        +6

        Maybe my numbers are wrong, but looking at say a 30k mitsu asx vs byd atto 46k after gov rebate.

        Over 150k and 5 years, we will assume depreciation and servicing will be roughly equal for both cars.

        Assuming city driving.

        The asx will drink about 30k in gas at 10l to 100 @ $2

        The atto3 will use about $5400 at 25c a kw

        So about 25k saving over the life of the car.

        Better if Solar.

        To be fair we should assume 10% pa return on the 16k difference in cost. So about 8k

        Still 17k better off.

        Call me fooled.

        But catching the bus is still cheaper and you get a driver.

    • Stopback on 08/11/2022 - 16:17
      +4

      Depends on your fuel economy etc.

      Distance you drive. Solar panels.

    • Lachy2437 on 09/11/2022 - 08:15

      Fuel is only one part of the $ equation and might be cheap if your car only sips 5-8L of it but not if it guzzles 10L+. What about servicing costs, depreciation, repairs, reliability etc etc ?Without a novated lease (assuming the gov legislation passes) an EV is an expensive vehicle, with it the numbers for my personal situation come pretty close to spending $25k on a second hand car. I think the whole point is you should look at your own finances and at least do some simple modelling to work out what is best for your situation.

      • filmer on 11/11/2022 - 10:02

        I don't think anyone is buying an EV just to save money.

        It should be buying the equivalent EV in terms of performance & comfort over a new ICE to save money.

        Given the same interior level, and performance the EV is not that much more.

        Servicing, repairs, etc is all cheaper on electric.

        If you are looking at second-hand cars this is obviously not for you, as you weren't going to buy a 50-60k ICE car either.

        • Lachy2437 on 11/11/2022 - 16:37

          I didn't make up the scenario, it is my current situation. I have a young family and a 17 year old car, I am after something safer and more efficient. A low km 5 year old VW Passat or Ford Mondeo would set me back $20-25k. Over 5 years a Model Y on a novated lease (assuming the government legislation passes) is close enough dollars wise to buy. Advantages are savings in fuel, maintenance, tax, reliavility and keeping myself more liquid. Total costs end up close enough that I'll probably get a Tesla.

          • filmer on 11/11/2022 - 17:18

            @Lachy2437: Ah, I was comparing the price of buying outright, or using regular finance.

            I do wonder if the proposed legislation is a little too good.

  • dust on 08/11/2022 - 15:13
    +10

    we already got a 6.6kwh solar system at home (no battery though - should I get one?)

    If purely for cost savings batteries aren't worth it at the moment. Extends the payback period by a lot.

    • xdigger on 08/11/2022 - 15:15
      +1

      Cheers, that's what I thought. Might wait for home battery costs to come down maybe in the next 5-10 years then.

      • gakko on 08/11/2022 - 15:39
        +2

        New BEV car chargers can use the car battery as the solar battery and feed power back into the house over night. Has implications for battery life obviously but meh, pretty cool.

        • xdigger on 08/11/2022 - 15:45

          Interesting, haven't seen this widely used yet probably because as you said it will negatively impact the car's battery life.

          • Drakesy on 08/11/2022 - 16:06
            +1

            @xdigger: Yep one of the big drawcards for the BYD is the ability to act as a vehicle to load battery.
            If you look at the economics of batteries the car actually works out as free as really you're just paying for the battery with the benefit of being able to move it.
            Oh and the smugness of keeping the lights on while everyone else experiences a blackout.

        • RockyRaccoon on 08/11/2022 - 21:10
          -3

          Yep a whole lot of great ideas, but when put together dont make sense.

          Charge your BEV off the solar, then run the house at night, then next day no power in the car so yoiu leave it at home to get charged by solar, and the cycle continues.

          The hype doesnt match the reality. Likewise you drive to work in the day your solar connection doesnt work unless you have some fancy remote charging no one else has even thought about.

          Just like those inner city terrorists who realise after buying their EV, they havent got a charge point in the street or rental units parking space. Plus the block of units behind shades their tiny roof solar system.

          • Euphemistic on 09/11/2022 - 06:32
            +12

            @RockyRaccoon:

            Charge your BEV off the solar, then run the house at night, then next day no power in the car so yoiu leave it at home to get charged by solar, and the cycle continues.

            Typical BEV will have a battery capacity 2 or 3 times the average household daily usage. If your BEV has a range of 300km and you drive 50-100km per day youā€™ll have plenty of spare capacity to run the house for a while. Not only that, during he might you use very little power and itā€™s possible to recharge the car quickly using off peak power pricing.

            Using my case, under 30kwh per day at home. Commute is around 20km return. Include another 20km in the afternoon for errands and a car with 50kwh would have plenty of spare capacity to run the house overnight.

            • us3rnam3tak3n on 09/11/2022 - 17:39
              +1

              @Euphemistic: Yep, absolutely depends on use case. Also car batteries are 3-4 times the capacity of a Tesla powerwall so in most cases household use will be tiny compared to EV capability.

              • Euphemistic on 09/11/2022 - 17:47
                +1

                @us3rnam3tak3n: I remember when the first EVs started appearing I was shocked at how much battery power was required when compared to running a whole house. A tank of petrol could run a house for days.

            • MinifiguresAU on 09/11/2022 - 20:41
              +3

              @Euphemistic: Ok, but you are driving to work of a morning, so when is this car meant to be getting charged directly by the home Solar? Not only that, you're not home to be making best use of the Solar either.. It's a vicious cycle!

              Perhaps EV's are best suited to those working night shifts?

            • Viper8 on 11/11/2022 - 14:31

              @Euphemistic: "..and a car with 50kwh would have plenty of spare capacity to run the house overnight."
              So you're going to significantly reduce the life of your $20k car battery? Yea that's losing money, not saving it.

              • Euphemistic on 11/11/2022 - 15:32

                @Viper8: Itā€™s not gonna damage the battery. Car batteries are designed to pump out bulk current for acceleration. Pulling out 2-3kw for a couple of hours isnā€™t going to kill it.

                They even use batteries that are no longer good for cars to power houses because they are still good for that usage.

                • Viper8 on 11/11/2022 - 17:19
                  +1

                  @Euphemistic: Every time a single W/hr comes in and out of that battery it slightly degrades it. The higher the cumulative discharge/recharge along with the higher the rate of recharge/discharge are the two primary killers. Whilst household use is generating a relatively low discharge rate, the cumulative discharge and subsequent recharge over time is still significant, and WILL absolutely have a measurable impact on long-term battery capacity.

                  When I checked a couple of years ago Tesla had a disclaimer on utilisation of their vehicles for powering your home effectively stating: "doing so will reduce your car batteries lifespan". Which to be honest is simply acknowledging the obvious.

                  • Euphemistic on 11/11/2022 - 17:48

                    @Viper8: Yes it will degrade it. But it shouldnā€™t make any significant difference with modern batteries with good thermal management.

          • gakko on 09/11/2022 - 11:21
            +3

            @RockyRaccoon: It makes plenty of sense. Just set it so house go back to mains power when it's at 50%. Critics like you assume that no one else has any imagination just so that you can block things.

          • Drakesy on 10/11/2022 - 17:26

            @RockyRaccoon: I think you need to do a bit more research before commenting.
            A byd battery is around 60kwh
            Typical daily usage of a house is maybe 6kwh

            So will leave you plenty of wiggle room

            • bugsucher on 10/11/2022 - 23:39
              +1

              @Drakesy: "Typical daily usage of a house is maybe 6kwh"
              Apparently my energy company has different stats. Other homes in my area use 234kWh (1 person) or 384kWh (2 people) over 30 days in October, when it was not too cold / hot.

      • paullovesbargains on 17/01/2023 - 18:37

        don't assume they will. the resources to make these things are getting harder to find and need higher prices to make establishing new mines viable. prices will go up not down.

    • Foray on 08/11/2022 - 16:47
      +26

      TL;DR if you can WFH most days of the week, skip the house battery and wait a few years until V2H systems are mature in the Aussie market.

      I went for a 10 kWh battery along with my 6.6 kW solar system. I would not recommend anyone else do so at this time. Costs and tech maturity aside, it was very difficult to get it installed and configured in a reasonable time. We originally wanted a larger battery, but shortly after we placed our order LG put on a recall for a safety risk, so their entire supply of new units was diverted to servicing their RMA obligations for the recall. We needed to have the battery installed by X date in order to capture our expected rebate so in the end we had to settle for a smaller unit or risk losing ~$3500. Even then, we had to wait on many service appointments and 2 RMAs before the whole thing worked reliably. So, all sums aside, I would say the market is in a significant materials and labour squeeze right now and you can just be very unlucky with your choice of supplier and installer… but you won't know that til you're in month 4 of a planned 3-week wait time.

      OTOH, with power prices going up, the time to ROI for a battery is reducing. Making a modest effort to improve our door/window sealing, we can now keep the house comfy 24/7 and still our 10 kWh battery lasts all night until the panels start to recharge it. (The only exception is the coldest months with shortest daylight, but let's not have the perfect be the enemy of the good.) So I think the case can be made that a home battery bought now will be better for your wallet and your peace of mind than you think.

      But the best home batteries are less than 20% the capacity of typical BEVs. And many people make short enough trips most days that they do not consume 40%+ of the car's range each day. So if you're a homeowner and can reliably park your vehicle in front of your house (or you have a garage/driveway) to charge it, imagine this scenario: You either WFH several days a week, or someone in your household can drop you at your office/train station and return the car to the home. For the bulk of the day your solar system recharges your car. In the evening, the car uses 20% or less of its capacity to power your heat pump, your induction cooktop, and all your appliances. The next morning, you lather, rinse, and repeat.

      In this scenario you are not paying the oil companies for petrol and you very rarely pay your electric utility for grid power. You also store most of your surplus solar power at peak times (midday to 5 PM) rather than selling it back to your electric utility for a pittance. You can realistically replace a gas cooktop with induction, and a gas water heater with an electric-boosted heat pump. Your carbon footprint from energy consumption is minimal, and you do not have to massively alter your daily routines to align power consumption with solar production. And the battery that makes it all possible is a battery you were going to buy anyway because it's part of your vehicle.

      The only catch here is that a 6.6 kWh system may not make enough power in the day to top up your car each time. In that case, as long as you have the roof space for it, you could spend a few thousand extra to get more panels put on. If you're not planning to make the system hit ROI by selling back to the grid, then there's no need to size it according to the utility provider's max export allowance.

      • Nugs on 08/11/2022 - 20:57
        +1

        You're doing well. We have a 6kW system and a 13.5kWh battery which discharged down 75% (our blackout reserve set point is 25%). It ran out at 8am. We had 3 2.5kW splits running in bedrooms
        .

        • Foray on 09/11/2022 - 08:06

          Our blackout reserve is only 10%. If we get into a tough summer where blackouts are more likely then we'll push that up. But in our area at least, blackouts are so rare that we decided to use more of the battery every single day for overnight power. It suits us more than holding that 15% against the rare day where a blackout comes with no warning at all.

          FWIW we only have one split system running overnight, so if you're supporting 3 of them, you're doing quite well already on draughts and insulation.

          • Nugs on 09/11/2022 - 10:31
            +1

            @Foray: when it was first installed they set it to 5%. I have at times changed it up & down but we don't have mains water, so can't do basic stuff without power. I took my shower stuff to work once because we had no power for a morning shower.
            battery got to 25% at 6am this morning because extra heat from subsequent 30C days means AC works harder, the downside of double brick
            oh and now I can't install the app for control FFS, nor my wife
            .

          • Nugs on 10/11/2022 - 08:02

            @Foray: aaaand, we've got a blackout following lightning in the area. estimated restoration of power is 1030am. luckily with one less person in the house last night we only had 2 AC's on. still had 35% battery when the solar started dribbling power in. only odd thing today was no lighting at all nor the extraction fan in the shower
            .

      • RockyRaccoon on 08/11/2022 - 21:17

        or someone in your household can drop you at your office/train station and return the car to the home.

        Why not just sell the ev and use an Uber/Taxi to the station, far easier unless of course you have some spare person sitting at home doing nothing and can be on call for you.. Hope your not suggesting a spouse šŸ˜€

        • Foray on 09/11/2022 - 08:13
          +2

          If you don't already have a spouse yeah nah I don't recommend getting one just to be your support driver. Can't say I've seen any good deal on them lately on OzB. šŸ˜†

          But more seriously, my partner and I both WFH a few days a week but not always the same days. While it takes a bit of extra planning, we can usually arrange for the one staying home to drop the other off so that the car isn't sitting in the station lot all day. (We don't have a BEV yet, right now we just keep the car home for errands.)

          I know not everyone works a desk job, and not everyone can take mass transit to work instead of driving all the way. But for those that can, using V2H battery systems will be a great way to get max value out of your solar system and massively cut your carbon footprint.

          • Tleyx on 09/11/2022 - 14:48

            @Foray: If you compare battery size compared to overnight usage i would say missing out on charging for a day wont make a difference

      • JayM on 10/11/2022 - 09:00
        +1

        I love my LG 9KW battery system coupled with 6.24kw solar panels. I do not have a gas connection so my electric hot water system absolutely tanks my battery at night during a shower. During winter it can take the battery from 80% down to 50% depending on how long my shower is. If I didn't have electric hot water, my battery would last all night with my split system running.

        I'm about to get wall insulation installed which should help keep the heat in and require less heating during Winter. During Summer, the hot water system can still drain the battery but not as hard. Last night it took the battery from 81% to 63%.

        • Foray on 10/11/2022 - 09:10
          +1

          Oh nice, tell me more please! My gas hot water system is on year 15 of a 12-year warranty so I'm planning to replace it with a heat pump system.

          Out of curiosity, how big is your hot water system? Is it direct electric heating or heat pump?

          What sort of drawdown do you see overnight if there's no shower or laundry being run? Meaning, how much power does it take to just to keep the water warm, rather than heating new?

          • JayM on 10/11/2022 - 10:57
            +2

            @Foray: If I recall, it's a Vulcan 250L system though not sure if it's pump or direct electric heating. I've included a few screenshots below, the first one is the week leading up to the 4th of November. The bottom section is the battery draw during the various times. You can see the spikes from the water heater. The second image is yesterday's usage.

            https://files.ozbargain.com.au/upload/44465/99354/annotationā€¦
            https://files.ozbargain.com.au/upload/44465/99355/annotationā€¦

            In the colourful graph, the Green is the solar generated from the panels, the blue is when i'm drawing from the battery and the red is when i'm drawing from the grid. On the left of the graph is the power being drawn at the time, or generated by the panels. The large spikes during the day are the hot water system. The large-ish spike just after the green disappears in the day graph is my air fryer and toaster i think

            • resisting the urge on 11/11/2022 - 13:35
              +2

              @JayM: If the cause of the spike is 30mins of active heating from the Vulcan's element at shower time, you really do need to get a heat pump to shift consumption into daytime generation hours, (and reduce the overall consumption amount).

      • Viper8 on 11/11/2022 - 14:40
        +1

        If I have a 60kWh car battery and use 50% of it every day for 10 years, I'll need a new battery due to batter capacity falling below 70%.
        At Perth's power pricing today I'll have saved +$32k. But now I need a new -$20k battery. I also spent another -$20k on buying than car than an equivalent ICE car. However, I do recoup maybe half of that additional spend in re-sale value, so $+10k. All up I roughly break even.

        The same goes for home batteries with solar. Without rebates which are absent in most states, the best case with WFH and optimal power usage you'll break even at 10 years when the warranty expires and capacity is notably reduced.

        Today, using batteries to run your home is still very much "early adopter" for a reason: it doesn't make financial sense without rebates.

  • randomdude14 on 08/11/2022 - 15:27
    +23

    Sounds like OP has done some good research on the topic already.

    Few points to address in your note:

    1. Anything you're missing out in the next couple of years? Although this is fairly new tech, major changes are unlikely. Tesla Model 3 & Y has been around for 4+ years and has gone through many iterations. I have used several of them through our company - new Model 3 delivered this year, and the Y, are far superior to the Model 3 we first got in 2019. If there is any massive upgrades, usually they get rolled out in the US a year or two before it hits RHD (right-hand drive) markets. No such big changes in the US currently, so a Model Y is already a pretty mature product.

    2. BYD vs Tesla - we use BYD, Kona and Tesla. and Tesla always wins. Range and efficiency in regular use seems to be quite different to what all automakers are claiming FYI. This year alone I've seen numerous free upgrades to our Teslas (over the air) and they are better than we got it brand new. Heard that Polestar is more premium, but we have no cars to compare, plus it is double the cost of a Tesla. Recommend joining some Tesla groups on FB for detailed comparisons.

    3. If the FBT incentive proposed by the Labor gov gets approved, novated lease will be pretty amazing. FB groups have plenty of calculations shared if you're interested.

    4. Fuel savings are SIGNIFICANT. We charge only through solar in one warehouse, specially in summer months (5kwh solar - no battery). Using an electricity wholesaler like Amber is also useful. Even if not, single tariff rate in VIC southeast about 20-25 cents/kw - fuel saving quickly add up - running through paid electricity cost less than 1/3 of petrol cost for an economy car, and even better compared to a car that demands 98 petrol which is more expensive.

    5. Home charger is about $750 and installation would range from $300++ depending on complexity. Any sparky can install, nothing complex there, although some claim they have expertise in chargers. I just got a home charger installed in Melbourne, single phase, 7 meters from the switchboard, with an outdoor isolator switch - total cost $300

    6. We also take advantage of public chargers and carry Type 2 - Type 2 cable which cost about $200.

    In summary, I'd recommend Tesla Model Y as a better value, enjoyable option. Note that the range is about 400km and is dependent on many factors. The main difference is that with a home charger and solar at home, you will always have a free, full-tank car and never need to look for fuel stations on regular days. Long trips need a few mins of planning, but are done easier than most people think.

    Recommend joining some Tesla groups on FB for detailed comparisons and updates.Good luck!

    • xdigger on 08/11/2022 - 15:30
      +3

      Amazing thanks, exactly what I'm looking for!

      • MrBear on 09/11/2022 - 09:25
        +1

        Most people think of the cost of fuel/electricity when comparing vehicles. The largest cost savings is actually to do with servicing the vehicle.

        The EVs have much larger servicing intervals and hundreds of less moving parts than an ICE vehicle. Do some sums on this too when doing your comparisons.

    • Drakesy on 08/11/2022 - 16:08
      +3

      I'm interested in the FBT benefits, do you have an example of what we'd be looking at if you are to novated lease one?

    • Thinkscape on 09/11/2022 - 08:40
      +9

      Yes this, from a fellow EV owner.

      Iā€™d only add that best time to get an EV was 2016.
      Second best time is now.

      Around 30% households in Australia have solar on the roof. Vast majority of EV owners charge at home and drive literally $0 emission-free. We use public charging usually only on longer drives, or if weā€™re apartment dwellers (because of au backwards strata and dev laws)

      With time you can count on:
      - slow but steady price decreases on new cars (due to economies of scale of battery production)
      - faster price decrease and better availability on used EVs (people upgrading their 3+ years cars)
      - but beware that everyone seems to want one so competition on second-hand is fierce, waitlists for new ones are long

      The community, ie Facebook groups, are great source of first-hand info. Beware ozb salty sudo-experts spreading FUD about EVs, some of the BS is just hilariously inaccurateā€¦

    • nobro25 on 09/11/2022 - 23:01
      -3

      Yes fuel prices are significant only in the long run. Say you buy 20k vehicle and cheapest Tesla which would cost about 60k. Maintenance is pretty hefty for Tesla you have to remember and how long does the battery last? 10 years?

      Case in point I spend about $1,200 a year on petrol and now about $2,000 a year due to increase inflation. So it'll take around 20 years to break even assuming charging the EV vehicle is free.

      20 years is minimum assuming you want to keep your car for that long. Not to mention if you buy the 20k vehicle you have that 40k difference to spend or invest in other things.

      • Thinkscape on 10/11/2022 - 09:44
        +7

        more FUD from a non-owner šŸ¤¦ā€ā™‚ļø here we go …

        • Tesla cars have NO maintenance schedule (other than voluntary tire rotation, windshield wipers and fluid, cabin filters)
        • The motors are expected to last a few milion km
        • Here's one with 500k on the original battery: https://twitter.com/IovePianoBlack/status/155158555774626201ā€¦
        • In case of Tesla, the battery degrades a few % but degradation curve flattens after a few years, usually < 10% (here's a public sheet https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/t024bMoRiDPIDialGnuKPā€¦)
        • If you're not driving many km per year, then no car makes economical sense - registration and insurance in NSW will be more expensive than fuel/electricity.
        • If you're driving avg or more than avg. and have PV then you will see material savings from an EV.
        • Tesla is a premium, expensive EV brand - there are now dozens of other, cheaper EVs available with quicker ROI.
        • tryagain on 11/11/2022 - 03:00

          If you're driving avg or more than avg. and have PV then you will see material savings from an EV.

          And are at home during the day to charge your car and a must have for you is a new more expensive car as opposed being happy with an older used one?

          Depreciation is normally the biggest cost of car ownership. I am assuming outside of the pretty uncommon use case above, upgrading to save money over an existing ICE doesn't yet financially stack up from a purely financial perspective?

  • original15 on 08/11/2022 - 15:28
    +3

    We were looking at electric hybrid SUVs and initial outlay and increased servicing + eventual battery replacement etc didnā€™t warrant it for us yet.
    Maybe in 5-10 years

    • xdigger on 08/11/2022 - 15:31
      +12

      Thanks, but hybrids didn't make sense to me from the get go with the ICE servicing costs + poor EV mileage.

    • chuq on 08/11/2022 - 15:47
      +6

      Don't even worry about battery replacement. It's not going to be an issue. It's look thinking of the cost of ripping out and completely rebuilding an engine when buying a brand new ICE car.

    • Fergy1987 on 08/11/2022 - 16:05

      Yeah we're doing the same - Going Hybrid for this car, and then maybe electric for the next car later on

    • Drakesy on 08/11/2022 - 16:10

      the batteries will quickly be picked up by third party suppliers and we'll see the costs drop significantly.
      Its like Apple when they had a monopoly over the parts industry and everything to repair was ridiculous. Then the third party suppliers came in and undercut the crap out of them.

      Also don't forget you have a warranty that guarantees 80% of the battery health after 8 years, so its nowhere near the phone degradation rate. And in that time you would've saved enough in mechanical servicing and fuel anyway.

      • xdigger on 08/11/2022 - 16:27

        There is a school of thought which says that batteries will not become cheaper in the next 5-10 years due to limitations in mining for lithium/rare earths. Hence whether I should just upgrade now to an EV to take advantage of my free solar charging at home.

        • Drakesy on 08/11/2022 - 16:56

          Lets not forget innovation will bring in other batteries such as graphene etc so the industry will be able to pivot.

          But yes naturally there's a finite amount of rare earths.

          • RockyRaccoon on 08/11/2022 - 21:28

            @Drakesy: So your point doesnt make complete sense. If newer battery technology comes on the scene, then older ones in 10 years time will probably only be available through the original supplier, as an alternative supplier wouldnt want to invest in the limited market and then the development of an alternative battery that could fit..

            And comparing small phone batteries to massive battery packs isnt a fair analogy like a 10 year old phone in many cases isnt worth replacing the battery. Then also there is more investment in developing manufacturing and storage so prices are unlikely to come down much unless the OEM reduces it and 3rd party vendors wouldn't want the warranty risks etc with these complex batteries.

            Even now, have an accident in a Tesla, and in many cases its a write off because any damage to the battery cell means they just write that off completely as its too risky to repair.

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