Banking System Melting down While Bitcoin Melts up

techlead on 21/03/2023 - 10:40
Last edited 22/03/2023 - 12:51

I think we are starting to see the cryptocurrency market start to decouple from the traditional markets as people see how fragile the banking system is. Fiat currency (USD, AUD, CHF etc) are backed by nothing but trust, once that trust evaporates, like in the case of SVB, Signature Bank and now Credit Suisse, its back to the money printers to bail these institutions out. SVB in particular, bought "good quality" treasury bonds, yet they mistimed the market and the Feb screwed them over by hiking rates so quickly.

Its funny that in 2017, the Credit Suisse CEO said Bitcoin at $7000 was a "bubble" and now Credit Suisse has become Debit Suisse and Bitcoin is worth multiples of $7000.

It is very clear with the strength of Bitcoin recently that many people has now realized fiat currencies are not backed by anything and its worth gets diminished once the printer goes brrrrrrr. I'm very glad I've been aggressively buying my favorite crypto over these last couple of months. The new bull market is nearly upon us and Bitcoin and good quality alts will once again amazing people. As someone who as widely laughed at and ridiculed to daring to say Bitcoin will be $10k+ USD per coin one day back in 2013/2014, I have experienced these cycles before. As Bitcoin blasts through resistance levels on its way upwards, I'm very sure it will be more than $100k and then eventually more than $1 million per BTC.

I'm down to my last $AUD200k cash, rest of my net worth is all in crypto, I will probably stop buying now, just keep it as a buffer. I'm strapped onto this crypto rocket, who else is onboard?

PS: I'm not associated in any way to the YouTube channel called Techlead who famously adds "as a millionaire" to everything he says and allegedly ran a million dollar scam.

Financial Cryptocurrency

Comments

                • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 12:30
                  +2

                  @Drakesy: What does "fictional value" mean?

                  I can sell a Bitcoin right now for $41,668 AUD and have that in my bank account in a few hours. Which part of that is "fictional"?

                  • Drakesy on 21/03/2023 - 12:33

                    @techlead: so why is that Bitcoin worth $41,668 AUD

                    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 12:42
                      +2

                      @Drakesy: The market says so, because there is someone who is willing to pay $41,668 for it.

                      This is similiar to say a house which sold for $1 mil last year. Without any works done to it, it sold for $1.5 mil this year, why? There were no changes to the house, the only thing that changed was someone willing to pay more for it (the "greater fool" theory). I've seen many examples of this in the past 2-3 years. Not now since the property market is dropping.

                      As for Bitcoin, I think the reason why demand has increased (hence its price has increased) is because people are looking for a haven from the banks, they realise the traditional banking system can't be trusted. Also, Binance has announced they will no longer keep reserves in USD stablecoins, they will start keeping inkind reserves, which would also in the short term increase demand for BTC/ETH and other cryptos.

                      • Drakesy on 21/03/2023 - 12:52

                        @techlead: My counter argument is that housing serves a function in that it provides a basic necessity.
                        Bitcoin is purely hype based because of perceived limitations, it provides no other service but that.

                        • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 13:00

                          @Drakesy: Yes, housing serves a function. So does Bitcoin. Its a censorship resistant and permissionless network, used by many people.

                          The property market today serves not just housing, there's also a gambling/speculation component to it. That's why we have housing problems. Houses are for shelter, it shouldn't be a vehicle for gambling/speculation. Look at Singapore, that's an example of a country that is using property just for housing, no gambling/speculation.

                          Do you think the property market is not hype-based? Why do I keep seeing articles like this?

                          https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/sydney-nsw/natha…

                          https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/man-with-…

                          • FIVEDOLLAR on 21/03/2023 - 14:06
                            +6

                            @techlead: A house is a basic need/shelter for "most" people.
                            I want to buy a place to live in because it protects me from the heat/cold/provides shelter.

                            And for most people, this is the case, there is going to be arbitrage, and accumulation of wealth but it doesn't change what housing is.

                            You could potentially trade Bitcoin for cash and trade that cash for housing just because someone is willing to pay $40k AUD for 1 coin, I highly doubt he/she will value

                            censorship resistant and permissionless network

                            that can't be used or viable in the day to day life.

                            I actually want regulations when I'm making my transactions.

                            Coz tomorrow a bunch of people decide for whatever reason that they don't think my 1 Bitcoin is worth 40k anymore and is now 4k, I'm (profanity), but I bought a house and now at least I got a roof.

                            And news.com.au is like shit tier news source.

                            • idjces on 21/03/2023 - 15:10

                              @FIVEDOLLAR:

                              Coz tomorrow a bunch of people decide for whatever reason that they don't think my 1 Bitcoin is worth 40k anymore and is now 4k, I'm (profanity), but I bought a house and now at least I got a roof.

                              The RBA has essentially decided your debt is not worth 0.15% pa anymore, it's suddenly now worth 3.35%. Any approach you take, you will subject to the whims (market pricing) of third parties

                              • FIVEDOLLAR on 21/03/2023 - 17:57
                                +1

                                @idjces: I'm happy for the RBA to increase rates to curb inflation.

                                But if you expect the RBA to go from 0.15% to 3.35 the next day immediately, I wouldn't bank on that.

                                There are always "market" forces but I don't have to worry about the same asset in the same conditions valued differently just because.

                                And by all means, having my house valued at $0 still doesn't remove what "value" it brings to me.

                                • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 18:45
                                  +1

                                  @FIVEDOLLAR: The property market has two components, the housing component based on fundamentals cash flow from rent etc and there's the gambling/speculation component. Right now, the property market is very frothy due to the gambling/speculation component. If the government of the day or the RBA starts to change the rules, the values will change very quickly.

                                  We have already seen this happen in China. They introduced the three red lines to curb rampant debt with developers and also introduced increased deposit requirements for purchasing property. The paradigm has shifted, and suddenly the market doesn't value this apartment at $1 mil say, the market says its now $300k, those mortgage holders are equally (profanity).

                                  If we go off the principle that property is for shelter, then a very easy way to cut the gambling/speculation out is to increase the deposit requirements for property purchases, just set the levels at 20% for the first property, 60% for the second property then 90% for the third and all subsequent properties. If that was implemented, property values will instantly fall off a cliff, because it will eliminate the gambling/speculation component.

                                  Coz tomorrow a bunch of people decide for whatever reason that they don't think my 1 Bitcoin is worth 40k anymore and is now 4k, I'm (profanity), but I bought a house and now at least I got a roof.

                                  I'm more comparing Bitcoin to investment properties. This can happen for a house too, the reason why property are dropping is because buyers are no longer saying willing to pay say $3 mil for this house, they want to pay $2.5 mil, so if the vendor wants to sell, they will have to meet the market or the property will just languish in the market, I haven't seen a few of those lately, the vendor just wouldn't budge and buyers are offering what they want.

                                  • FIVEDOLLAR on 21/03/2023 - 20:50
                                    +1

                                    @techlead:

                                    If the government of the day or the RBA starts to change the rules, the values will change very quickly.

                                    That could be good or bad, now what stops Bitcoin speculation?

                                    If people start speculating property and it goes up to 50 million for a 1 bedroom apartment and no one is able to control that, what would you do in a decentralised property market with anonymity?

                                    How do you justify that the price of Bitcoin can go up or down 1000% in a month if that is not speculation?

                                    I'm more comparing Bitcoin to investment properties.

                                    I don't think this is comparative.

                                    Bitcoin can be thought of as a currency, now if you're investing in Bitcoin as if you're holding property, now this is fundamentally a different intent and use.

                                    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 21:01
                                      +2

                                      @FIVEDOLLAR:

                                      That could be good or bad, now what stops Bitcoin speculation?

                                      My point here is, leave the gambling/speculation for shares, Bitcoin etc. Property is for shelter. You can easily stop gambling/speculation in property by introducing a tiered deposit requirement, 20% deposit for the first property, 65% for the second and 90% for the third and all subsequent properties. Gambling/speculation will be eliminated overnight.

                                      If people start speculating property and it goes up to 50 million for a 1 bedroom apartment and no one is able to control that

                                      This exactly illustrates my point. If a one bedder goes to $50 million, without comparable wages to support it, its going to create a lot of issues. hence, take gambling/speculation out of property. If Bitcoin goes to $50 mil a coin, that's fine, its not essential, but everyone needs housing. We can control that with the rule change I outlined above.

                                      How do you justify that the price of Bitcoin can go up or down 1000% in a month if that is not speculation?

                                      The volatility of Bitcoin is due to its emerging status. Any emerging asset becomes very volatile because there's price discovery, this is the case with start ups as well. The volatility of Bitcoin has reduced as adoption and trading volumes increased. Also, the maximum Bitcoin can fall is 100% in a month and it has never done that before, but I get your point, its volatile. I saw my first 2BTC purchase for $1600USD with this mindset in 2013, I was ready to lose 100% of it. I'm glad I kept it and kept on buying.

                                      Bitcoin can be thought of as a currency, now if you're investing in Bitcoin as if you're holding property, now this is fundamentally a different intent and use.

                                      I see it as an investment vehicle. Simple as that. In 2013, I was faced with a choice, should I buy an investment property, invest in shares or Bitcoin. I chose Bitcoin and I'm able to accumulate the wealth I have today because of that decision. The results are in, it is a fact that I made the correct choice, because no investment property nor share for that matter, would have allowed me to accumulate the wealth I have today.

                                      A currency can also be thought of as an investment. Take Argentina for example, it was once a very wealthy nation, but now declined alot and will most likely never recover. If you were a billionaire in Argentina during the good times, the only way that could have saved you, would be if you bought a stable foreign currency, like USD, AUD, GBP or Bitcoin (but Bitcoin didn't exist back then). If you had any other asset in Argentina, your wealth would have been decimated during its decline. So currencies can be an investment vehicle as well. I think Bitcoin is more of an asset than a currency. I'm not spending my Bitcoin.

                                      • FIVEDOLLAR on 21/03/2023 - 21:28

                                        @techlead:

                                        This exactly illustrates my point. If a one bedder goes to $50 million, without comparable wages to support it, its going to create a lot of issues. hence, take gambling/speculation out of property

                                        My point is the benefits of being able to regulate something.

                                        The volatility of Bitcoin is due to its emerging status. Any emerging asset becomes very volatile because there's price discovery, this is the case with start ups as well.

                                        That's interesting because valuation changes as more information is gained about the asset, there's no doubt Bitcoin has gotten more exposure and more people have bought into it but I still don't see the value as it is now.

                                        For example, I can't go into woolies and buy say a pack of gum, even if you were able to do so, it would be quite weird to see the price of 0.00005 Bitcoins.

                                        • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 21:45

                                          @FIVEDOLLAR:

                                          My point is the benefits of being able to regulate something.

                                          Totally agree with you. With more regulation for crypto, it will drive more adoption, I have no issues with regulating crypto.

                                          That's interesting because valuation changes as more information is gained about the asset

                                          The value can also increase due to recent events. The fragility of the traditional banking system and the unlimited money tap. This is "extra information", if money printing continues, then the value of Bitcoin will increase in comparison as the currency is devalued, ceteris paribus.

                                          For example, I can't go into woolies and buy say a pack of gum, even if you were able to do so, it would be quite weird to see the price of 0.00005 Bitcoins.

                                          I actually don't like to use Bitcoin as a currency, there are much better cryptos for this purpose. But if you really wanted to, it can be easily solved with decimals. 1 Satoshi is 0.00000001 BTC also known as a SAT, is worth around 0.0002748 USD, so let's say this pack of gum is $2USD at Woolies, it would cost 7278 Sats, which is pretty user friendly. The issue here is, due to the volatility of Bitcoin, this would have to constantly change, hence I don't want to use Bitcoin as a currency. I just checked the price, its over $28k USD again, it was well below that for much of the trading session today. Europe pumped it up. lol

                      • trapper on 21/03/2023 - 17:25

                        @techlead:

                        This is similiar to say a house which sold for $1 mil last year. Without any works done to it, it sold for $1.5 mil this year

                        Imagine though a house that could not be lived in or used in any way (other than to buy and sell), a house you couldn't even look at, an imaginary house.

                        Now it might still have some value, people may even still pay money to own it - but that is not in any way similar to an actual house.

                        • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 18:47

                          @trapper: My example is more a comparison of an investment property not an owner occupied one. So take the example of someone who bought a property last year, they are now in negative equity, rent doesn't cover the mortgage costs, like poor Steve over here:

                          https://www.9news.com.au/national/australian-property-crisis…

                          What can he do? he's got 12 properties but its bleeding him dry, yes he can touch the bricks, he can touch the grass, its tangible, but that's not doing him any good. It might as well be an imaginary house lol

                          • trapper on 21/03/2023 - 19:15

                            @techlead: If you borrowed a million dollars to buy Bitcoin then you better bloody hope it goes up, because there isn't going to be any rent at all to help make those loan payments.

                            • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 20:54

                              @trapper: Exactly. I didn't borrow any money to buy bitcoin, but a lot of people did when it comes to property. This is what I mean about the gambling/speculation component of the property market.

                              Also, if Bitcoin implodes, its effects wouldn't be as widespread as people don't live in Bitcoin, however if the housing market implodes, then we have an issue. We can see the issues starting to surface right now, its going to get worse.

                              My view is, property is for shelter, take gambling/speculation out of it, gamble/speculate with shares, Bitcoin etc, not with housing.

                          • Drakesy on 24/03/2023 - 15:30
                            -1

                            @techlead: Nah that's just poor decision making and getting greedy. Kinda like FTX and Celsius.

                            • techlead on 24/03/2023 - 15:57
                              +1

                              @Drakesy: What is? People with a large property portfolio? The point is, why would you even let people get greedy over something as essential as shelter?

                              • Drakesy on 24/03/2023 - 16:03

                                @techlead: Because Liberals, an economy literally based around importing people, lending out as much money as possible (given government guarantees) and developing infrastructure.

                                We've backed ourselves into a Bank and developer run hole.

                  • [Deactivated] on 23/03/2023 - 11:35
                    -1

                    @techlead: So could tulips at a point in time.

        • xazark on 21/03/2023 - 12:53
          +2

          Lets not forget the exact benefits that led people down crypto - uncontrolled market etc. are the exact reasons why so many tokens are subject to manipulation and ultimately their demise as FIAT banks don't have control over it, rich people who can manipulate it do.
          Because it's not rich people controlling the banks, economy, interest rates etc…. oh…. wait….

          • Drakesy on 21/03/2023 - 12:54

            @xazark: To an extent, yes. One still believes (at least in Australia) that the government/RBA still have a controlling stake in it.

    • DashCam AKA Rolts on 21/03/2023 - 11:39
      -1

      Early crypto wallet: https://www.handyman.net.au/how-to-store-bulbs

      • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 11:47

        I remember my first Bitcoin wallet, it was a sheet of paper with a code printed on it. :)

        Good 'ld days.

  • star-ggg on 21/03/2023 - 11:39
    +5

    Bitcoin down: cue posts crypto is worthless because reasons

    Bitcoin up: cue posts crypto is better than fiat because reasons

  • localhost on 21/03/2023 - 11:43
    +1

    Another day, another crypto 'investor' :)

    If you want to make money from crypto just start derivatives trading. With scalping method you can make 20-30-40% per day (even more if you risk more) and it doesn't matter price is going up or down. I did it few times for fun and it's doable. Even with proper configured bots for auto trading you can make 5-10% per week. After taxes you still will have 5% left for you weekly.

    But since you insist all we have to buy bitcoins to make our feature brighter - no worries, will wait for price to drop to $1 and will buy 10 each. Once it goes back to $1M we all be rich and happy. Happy as a crypto 'investor' who bought something and tries to convince other to support him.

    And yes, BTC is not a gold. It's a commodity with high risk involved. There are a lot of ups and downs in the price of it and if you use it wisely you can make a lot of money. Real money like USD/AUD/CHF used everywhere in shops. Real shops, with real products like food, booze,…
    But buying at $20k and showing off at $27k doesn't make you an investor.
    If the price jumps to $60k you will be back again with similar posts - TOLD YOU, but if it goes south… SHHHT, QUIET, PRICE WILL GO BACK TO $20k.

    • CrowReally on 21/03/2023 - 11:45
      +2

      One thing I'll give techlead, he puts his money where his mouth is and invests for his own reasons (and is generous with his time explaining his take, etc).

      He's not a memeing shitposter like rekttrading was, etc.

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 11:51
      -1

      As I mentioned in my AMA https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/613895, posted March 2021. Don't do derivatives trading. Crypto is too volatile, you are going to be stopped out even if you got the trend right.

      • localhost on 21/03/2023 - 11:59

        Do you know all trade tools have stop loss. Activate it by default, pick few ups/downs daily and voila - easy money.

        But… this is not for people without good knowledge, preparation and most important - nerves. Seeing your $20k for example going to $18k just in a minute will make most of the people crazy.
        There is just one positive thing with derivatives trading - you can make a lot of money for a short period of time.
        And negatives (lets start):
        - tax complications, as you buy with leveraged positions
        - must be well educated and prepared, so it needs time and effort

        Investing in crypto is similar to investing in anything else: property, gold, shares, only with one problem - in a sec you can lost everything because someone, somewhere decided to put some regulations.

    • turbochris on 22/03/2023 - 10:02
      -5

      So you can make 20% per day derivatives trading no matter what the market conditions eh?

      Why are you on Ozbargain then?

      Because if you started with $100 and made 20% per day for just 90 days you would have over $1.4 Billion dollars.

      • turbochris on 27/03/2023 - 12:57
        -1

        Downvoters, do the maths:

        $100 20% per day compounded over 90 days = $1.337B

        100 x 1.2^90

        OK so my mental maths was out, and its only 1.337B not 1.4B.

        Point still stands

  • onetwothreefour on 21/03/2023 - 11:45
    +2

    I took a bit of a gamble on crypto and ended up having my portfolio go down by about 70%, just hoping it goes back up to close to where it was before.

    Luckily I wasn't too heavily invested in it but still enough to annoy me.

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 11:54

      This is what happened to me when I first bought Bitcoin in 2013, it fell 60%, I didn't get back to break even until more than a year later.

      I bought at $800USD, I was going to sell it when it went back to $800USD, but I forgot my exchange password and didn't get around to resetting it. When it blasted past $1k, I decided to hold it and bought more and kept buying more periodically until today. I still hold those 2 BTC to this day. I don't think I will ever sell it, it has sentimental value.

      I'm very glad I didn't sell.

      • onetwothreefour on 21/03/2023 - 11:56

        Good for you, I'm hoping the same happens to me but I would need BTC at record prices to break even. I could always take a further gamble by buying some more at today's prices but I don't think I will.

        • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 12:01
          +1

          There is no ceiling to the Bitcoin price because there is no floor to the value of fiat.

          This is what most people don't understand, $20 is not going to be worth $20 in a month or year's time. What is the value of $20? It's its purchasing power. If you can get 20 loaves of bread for $20 today, but next year you can only get 10 loaves of bread, your $20 has declined in value. This is why if you look about at property prices in the 1950s, its so cheap, but wages were also very cheap too.

          The Bitcoin "price" will keep going up, because there's always inflation, so this "record" will keep broken again and again and again. There can only ever be 21 mil Bitcoin, but there is no hard cap for fiat currency, central banks print liberally whenever a crisis arises, hence the value of fiat currencies will continue to decline.

          • trapper on 21/03/2023 - 17:30

            @techlead: There is an unlimited number of alt-coins though.

            The value of Bitcoin is purely a function of its popularity.

    • DingoBilly on 22/03/2023 - 09:51

      Sometimes it's better to just take the loss and move on. Just holding on to something because of hope and no specific strong reason otherwise is a poor decision.

      Plenty of people will point to anecdotal evidence of making it back but it's just as likely to go to $100k as it is to go to $1k.

      • techlead on 24/03/2023 - 16:00
        +1

        Hahaha, you think Bitcoin is going to $1k?!?

  • Bid Sniper on 21/03/2023 - 12:06
    +3

    Thought these magic bean HODLers were all sunk or moved on? Bag holders will try to convince everyone around them they will be rich one day, guess what you wont. Same BS peddled by media about the state lottery. Yes you can be that one millionaire that beats the odds, yes the odds are basically zero but it COULD happen.

    Just a mechanism for wealth extraction from poor to rich, unregulated economic dystopian nightmare that everyone should avoid.

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 12:13
      -1

      Did you compare crypto to lottery? There are way more crypto millionaires/billionaires than those who won the state lottery. Its an emerging asset class.

      I've started to see the prevalence of crypto theme license plates. I saw a BMW with plates BTC. I'd never do that, why flaunt it like that? You will make yourself vulnerable to the $10 (previously $5, increased due to inflation) wrench hack. I don't even wear a Bitcoin/Crypto theme shirt in public.

      Just a mechanism for wealth extraction from poor to rich, unregulated economic dystopian nightmare that everyone should avoid.

      Banks are regulated entities, how's that working out for SVB, Signature and Credit Suisse? Property market is pretty regulated? Why are there sob stories about people "struggling" after investing in property?

      Steve* here is not having a very good time - https://www.9news.com.au/national/australian-property-crisis…

      *Not his real name

      • Bid Sniper on 21/03/2023 - 12:39
        +9

        man you're like 5 years too late with shilling and whataboutism, what rock have you been under?

        Been mining and trading ETH before 2018 crash and just got out ahead when the game of musical chairs stopped. Its a whales game with institutional investors that can easily game the system in ways that is completely illegal in real stocks.

        Those are all in this $#It have believe its their golden ticket out to a better life and sorry to say unless you're a whale, you're the plankton.

        • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 12:47
          -4

          What's wrong with "whataboutism"? People keep bringing it up like its a bad thing, we need to be constantly comparing and contrasting, so to me whataboutism is absolutely fine.

          I'm investment agnostic, I just want to get a good return for the risk I'm willing to take. Looking back, I'm glad I picked crypto. I used to mine ETH too, I stopped when they moved off POW and sold my cards.

          Its a whales game with institutional investors that can easily game the system in ways that is completely illegal in real stocks.

          This happens in the regulated share market too. I hope crypto will be more regulated so there will be an increase in adoption.

          When you participate in the share market, you are also a plankton. Do you think this kind of manipulation don't occur in the sharemarket?

          • Bid Sniper on 21/03/2023 - 14:20
            +7

            @techlead:

            What's wrong with "whataboutism"?

            Its what cultists use to avoid using critical thinking. Its a pointless never ending circular argument used by cookers that goes nowhere, nothing is learned and ultimately is used to justify their idiotic ideology through exhaustion of any voice of reason.

            Success is done through; education, hard work, being good at what you do, being smart with money and some luck along the way. I got my modest dream car that I paid in cash (not V-bucks) with standard plates, result of actual hard work for it for it but its real and in sitting in my garage now.

            You've got V-bucks that you think will make you rich on day, without having to do any hard work.

            Thats cool, You do you.

            • Therage on 22/03/2023 - 10:31

              @Bid Sniper: This "Success is done through; education, hard work, being good at what you do, being smart with money and some luck along the way.", well said.

      • thesilverstarman on 21/03/2023 - 14:16

        A crypto millionare is not a millionare. I could say that I am a shoe millionare, because I have a collection of shoes that I think are worth a million dollars. But until I sell them and convert them to actual physical assetts, or in an investment which is guaranteed by government, I have nothing. Actually, I at least have shoes, which can be used, whereas the crypto millionare has nothing. What the hell can you do with Dogue coin or erethium? Hungry, go to coles and see how much you can get for your bitcoin. Need fuel, see how much fuel you can get for your bitcoin at Shell. Go to marketplace and try to use bitcoin to buy stuff. Go to Maccas and see how many burgers you can get through the drivethrough with bitcoin.
        you have been sucked in to beleiving that bitcoin is the future. Im guessing you have been sucked into many MLMs too. If you are interested, did you know that you can legally become a Lord by buying a square foot of land in Scotland too……..

        • lostgoat on 21/03/2023 - 14:23
          +2

          Are you kidding . The crypto is liquid and can be realized in seconds . Your shoes are not . Big difference and clueless.

        • Nom on 21/03/2023 - 14:58
          +2

          A crypto millionare is not a millionare. I could say that I am a shoe millionare, because I have a collection of shoes that I think are worth a million dollars. But until I sell them and convert them to actual physical assetts, or in an investment which is guaranteed by government, I have nothing.

          I don't see the difference between the two scenarios. If you have a million dollar sneaker collection, you can sell it for a million dollars to become a millionaire.
          If you have a million dollars of Bitcoin, you can also sell it for a million dollars to become a millionaire - and in fact, it's much quicker and easier to sell than the sneaker collection.

          What's the difference ? Like any other holding, you need to sell it if you want to convert it into actual money.

          What the hell can you do with Dogue coin or erethium?

          You can sell it for money, just like you can with gold, silver, shares, sneakers, or anything else.

          Hungry, go to coles and see how much you can get for your bitcoin. Need fuel, see how much fuel you can get for your bitcoin at Shell. Go to marketplace and try to use bitcoin to buy stuff. Go to Maccas and see how many burgers you can get through the drivethrough with bitcoin.

          …what ? If you want to spend your Bitcoin on those things, you can sell it for actual dollars, just like you already mentioned above 🤷‍♂️

  • rumblytangara on 21/03/2023 - 12:12
    +9

    Is this a troll thread or something? Rah rah rah crypto is a complete joke given the events of this year.

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 12:14

      Not a troll thread, completely serious.

      Why do you think its a troll thread?

      • rumblytangara on 21/03/2023 - 12:14
        +7

        Second half of last sentence.

        Pointing at things messing up in the traditional finance industry doesn't really make crypto and its fundamental problems any less of a dumpster fire.

        • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 12:17

          Events such as?

          Let me guess, FTX and Celsius? This is corporate greed and mismanagement, just like Credit Suisse, SVB and Signature bank. This problem is not unique nor specific to crypto. Is that what you mean by a "complete joke"?

          I agree, its a "complete joke" that we magically conjure up billions of $$$ whenever there's a crisis with the banks.

          • rumblytangara on 21/03/2023 - 12:30
            +11

            @techlead: These arguments seem to get rehashed infinitum, but no, I would not say it's simply 'corporate greed and mismanagement' which imo is just broad brush handwaving. One of the many issues with crypto is lack of regulation which many proponents tout as a feature rather than a bug.

            I haven't bothered following CS, but it's worth pointing out that SVB fell into a less regulated class of entity because of its size and its own lobbying.

            More handwaving surrounds crypto with the 'it's teh new technolgies! it's the future!' but… to me it seems like a solution in search of a problem. The magical benefits of which never seem to materialise. I've read through so many of these arguments, and I've never seen anything that really convinces me that there are real benefits. Not a single thing.

            Seems like to me the 'magically conjuring up billions'… well, doesn't this just demonstrate that there is a massive system of interrelated economies, governments and industries that mean that badly managed (SVB had utterly shite risk management, and iirc didn't even have a CRO for a year) entities won't bring down everyone. Sure, this still sucks, but someone is willing to keep the system running, from making sure that individual depositors are not left high and dry. Who does that for collapses in the crypto market?

            A decade from now, maybe crypto won't be the wild west anymore, a continual rollercoaster ride and a continual stream of screwups, scams, and robberies. It probably will be. And it will look utterly different from today. But now, it's a total mess and the evangelicalists just keep trotting out the same arguments again and again- it's either whizz bang isn't this tech wonderful (but can't point to anything more than hypothetical or idealistic benefits) or that it's not that bad because traditional finance is also bad. Neither line of argument is convincing.

            • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 12:37

              @rumblytangara:

              lack of regulation

              I agree, more regulation for crypto wouldn't hurt, it would ultimately increase adoption.

              it seems like a solution in search of a problem

              Here's one problem, your fiat currency keeps decreasing in value (based on purchasing power). Australia has relatively low inflation, thankfully. But other countries don't have the same luxury, such as Argentina, Turkey, Venezuela and Lebanon just to name a few, there are many others. How do these people protect their wealth from the rats of inflation? Traditional solutions would be, to buy gold, to buy commodities, that's why in Venezuela whenever you get paid, people spend it all on essential goods and horde them so they can barter with it.
              Governments can put in limits for the purchase of goods or just outright confiscate your gold (this happened in the US).
              Crypto solves these problems. This is just one solution crypto offers.
              Even in such a low inflation country, if you kept your net worth in cash over the last 10-20 years, you'd be alot worse off.

              • rumblytangara on 22/03/2023 - 10:57
                +4

                @techlead: And the wild volatility of crypto doesn't present its own problems to people who are in dire financial straights? You keep talking about Bitcoin- how volatile has that been over the past 12 months, or even the past 3 months. And this is just Bitcoin, the highest profile one. Not one of the literal thousands of cryptocurrencies that have come and then vanished in a puff of somke.

                (Hint- it's been insanely volatile, not something that someone who doesn't have a comfortable cash buffer can really afford to play roulette with.)

                IMO this is another one of those hand-wavey crypto is teh magic solution shouts that doesn't bear out in reality.

                • Nom on 22/03/2023 - 11:08
                  +1

                  @rumblytangara:

                  And the wild volatility of crypto doesn't present its own problems to people who are in dire financial straights?

                  The first rule is that you only ever put in what you can afford to lose.
                  If you're in dire financial straights then you can't afford to lose anything - you sure as hell shouldn't be putting your money into anything volatile !!

                  (Hint- it's been insanely volatile, not something that someone who doesn't have a comfortable cash buffer can really afford to play roulette with.)

                  See above - if you don't have a comfortable cash buffer then you absolutely shouldn't be gambling on shares, on crypto, on anything !!

                  • rumblytangara on 22/03/2023 - 12:36

                    @Nom: Well, clearly.

                    That was in response to OP suggesting that people living on the breadline in troubled economies should 'invest' in crypto because gold or whatever can be seized by the government. Typical BS hyperbole by crypto enthusiasts. Every time someone is asked for credible, socially-beneficial use cases for widespread crypto adoption, something like this gets trotted out, and it's a complete joke.

              • Autonomic on 22/03/2023 - 15:12
                +1

                @techlead: I don't think you have any understanding of economics. Those countries have a black market of USD which they use to do whatever crypto could. The massive volatility and instability (and it being a terrible technology for actually paying for things) of crypto means it's useless. Even if it somehow wasn't, the government would simply block any crypto use.

  • MondaySleeper on 21/03/2023 - 12:47
    +9

    Crypto Ho-Ho people need to creates these kinds of posts so that FOMO starts pumping up, people start noticing it, start putting money to it and these ho-ho people pull those money in hard cash. Those followers leaves in tears….

    An Ass(et), they call it with no real utility and just pops up and down, which is a new age highway robbery.

    You invest that you can throw into sea.

  • ihbh on 21/03/2023 - 13:04
    +6

    Fiat currency (USD, AUD, CHF etc) are backed by nothing but trust

    The crux of your argument shows you don't know anything about the recent banking crises. If you make any money in crypto, it will be due to luck, not brains.

    The crises was due to poor asset-liability management by these banks - they invested in assets longer term than their liabilities and had a reputational issue which triggered the run. The assets reduced in value due to the rise in interest rates, but if they could have held it for the term, they would have been alright. They had a liquidity problem (which the run crystalized), not a solvency problem.

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 21:54

      Do you feel the same for people who have made money with property? They made money due to luck not brains? Not sure about others, but I did my research and came to a conclusion that out of property, shares and Bitcoin, I think the best investment to go into is Bitcoin and I have been proven correct. I'm sure there's a bit of luck sprinkled in, but I made a conscientious decision to buy Bitcoin.

      I know why these banks failed, whichever way you try to spin it, the end result is that these regulated banks failed and investors lost money. Depositors got bailed out, but equity and bond holders lost money, taxpayers foot the bill, we all pay with increased inflation, its a failure. These banks are gone, liquidity problem or solvency problem, they failed and will cease to exist, not sure what your point is though.

      • ihbh on 24/03/2023 - 09:34

        Do you feel the same for people who have made money with property?

        The people who've made money in the short term (couple of years) is due to luck more than anything else.

        I've made money in both real estate and shares as part of a diversified portfolio. I don't invest in one property either but have a portfolio of properties and many are in their third decade of owning - started young.

        Re BC, is it an investment or a medium of exchange or both?

  • thesilverstarman on 21/03/2023 - 14:05
    +7

    I have bought bitcoin, sold bitcoin, and made money. But make no mistake, bitcoin is not an investment. It is a gamble.
    There is literally nothing behind it. At least fiat currency is backed by government. Gold and other metals are real and you can hold them. Bitcoin is nothing other than some 1s and 0s. The market is manipulated and has no basis behind the movements. There are no market fundamentals. People talk about crypto being the future, and to some xtent, that may be true. But it will be governments using the technology to create thier own digital currencies, not bitcoin or any of the other ones out there.Bit coin is famous, so people know itbut the rest are as worthless as a drop of water on the pavement on a 40 degree day. Crypto is the tulip scam of our modern day.
    You can't use bitcoin to pay your taxes, buy your food or put fuel in your car. Banks do not see it as an assett. The only reason you can use it is because the government lets you.But if you make a profit it is taxable. Crypto has been banned in some nations, and it will be again. No western government has any plans to allow bitcoin etc to be a viable alternative to its currency (I know a couple of 2nd world nations have, but thats another story).
    You may as well go and put your money on a horse at the TAB. At least you have good odds. Cryto is a gamble, and if you are lucky you might make money. If you use the words assett or invesntment and crypto in the same sentence, you are trying to scam others into thinking that it is an alternative to savings, shares, gold or silver, which it is not.

    • lostgoat on 21/03/2023 - 14:38
      +2

      Are you talking about tin pot crypto market manipulation or BTC ? I can assure you BTC its very difficult to do nowadays with a market Cap of 1/2 tril . I suggest you stick to your tin pot stuff and let the big boys play with BTC .

    • Chandler on 21/03/2023 - 16:31
      +2

      There is literally nothing behind it.

      I disagree with that. Bitcoins feature is that every coin is accounted for: who holds what coins is all in the blockchain.

      At least fiat currency is backed by government.

      Yes - but only because said government chooses to back it to make the system work. And most governments limit their liability (balances of up to $250k, in Australia's case).

      Gold and other metals are real and you can hold them.

      Yes. But most people will never hold their FIAT, and would have to jump through a not-insignificant number of hoops if they wanted to do so.

      You can't use bitcoin to pay your taxes, buy your food or put fuel in your car.

      Just like you can't use gold to pay your taxes, buy your food or put fuel in your car.

      Banks do not see it as an assett.

      Only (IMO) for self-preservation. If everyone accepted Bitcoin then why do you need the bank?

      The only reason you can use it is because the government lets you.

      Just like FIAT currency.

      But if you make a profit it is taxable.

      Same as the interest you make on your FIAT currency.

      Crypto has been banned in some nations, and it will be again.

      I'm all for Scam-coin bans.

      No western government has any plans to allow bitcoin etc to be a viable alternative to its currency

      Yet.

      You may as well go and put your money on a horse at the TAB. At least you have good odds. Cryto is a gamble, and if you are lucky you might make money.

      I think I'd have more luck with crypto than at the TAB.

      If you use the words assett or invesntment and crypto in the same sentence, you are trying to scam others into thinking that it is an alternative to savings, shares, gold or silver, which it is not.

      Not necessarily. I could point to some shares that are more "scammy" than some -coins that I'd call scams myself.

      In my opinion: Bitcoin, not a scam. Everything else: probably a scam.

      Side note: I own no Bitcoins or any other form of crypto-currency.

      • thesilverstarman on 21/03/2023 - 17:25
        +1

        There is literally nothing behind it.
        I disagree with that. Bitcoins feature is that every coin is accounted for: who holds what coins is all in the blockchain
        * There is nothing and no one backing it. No government, no gold etc. There is just thin air. And if you lose your wallet key, it's gone forever.

        At least fiat currency is backed by government.
        Yes - but only because said government chooses to back it to make the system work. And most governments limit their liability (balances of up to $250k, in Australia's case(asic.gov.au)).
        * once again, nobody backs crypto. Not even $1. 250k is great. its 250k better than crypto.

        You can't use bitcoin to pay your taxes, buy your food or put fuel in your car.

        Just like you can't use gold to pay your taxes, buy your food or put fuel in your car.
        * Gold is a real asset that in times of crisis can be used, and we see proof of this in previous wars etc.

        Banks do not see it as an assett.
        Only (IMO) for self-preservation. If everyone accepted Bitcoin then why do you need the bank?
        * wrong. It;s not as asset. They will not lend money and use it as a security. Why? Risk. It is not stable, and has no instrinic value.

        The only reason you can use it is because the government lets you.
        Just like FIAT currency.
        * Governments will not ban fiat currency, but Crypto can be banned in an instant

        But if you make a profit it is taxable.
        Same as the interest you make on your FIAT currency.
        * you arent making interest on crypto. You are speculating on it.

        Crypto has been banned in some nations, and it will be again.
        I'm all for Scam-coin bans.
        *all crypto, not just some

        No western government has any plans to allow bitcoin etc to be a viable alternative to its currency
        Yet.
        * never. They will not allow un unregulated scam with nothing behind it. Look at gov discussions. If it starts causing issues, they will just ban it.

        You may as well go and put your money on a horse at the TAB. At least you have good odds. Cryto is a gamble, and if you are lucky you might make money.
        I think I'd have more luck with crypto than at the TAB.
        * the point is that it is a gamble

        If you use the words assett or invesntment and crypto in the same sentence, you are trying to scam others into thinking that it is an alternative to savings, shares, gold or silver, which it is not.
        Not necessarily. I could point to some shares that are more "scammy" than some -coins that I'd call scams myself.
        * shares are not scams. They are regulated and give you real ownership and benefits.

        In my opinion: Bitcoin, not a scam. Everything else: probably a scam.
        It is the modern equivalent of the dutch tulips.

        • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 21:33
          +2

          There is nothing and no one backing it. No government, no gold etc. There is just thin air. And if you lose your wallet key, it's gone forever.

          Fiat currency is not backed by gold either. As for losing your wallet key, if I dropped $50 in a crowded street, I will mostly lose it forever too. Wallet technology as become much much better now, so unless you are really trying, it is hard to lose your wallet. Like with any asset, you need to keep it safe, if you left your gold bullion on your desk, I'm sure you'd lose it sooner or later too.

          Gold is a real asset that in times of crisis can be used, and we see proof of this in previous wars etc.

          Yes, it can also be confiscated in times of wars too. Executive Order 6102 if you don't know. Can't confiscate my Bitcoin.

          wrong. It;s not as asset. They will not lend money and use it as a security. Why? Risk. It is not stable, and has no instrinic value.

          When I buy property, I don't need a bank, I can pay for it outright. So this issue is moot.

          Governments will not ban fiat currency, but Crypto can be banned in an instant

          They can certainly try, but they wouldn't succeed. Why is there crypto activity in China despite it being banned? That's because Bitcoin and other cryptos when they are implemented correct are decentralized censorship resistant and permissionless networks. You can't ban it unless you turn off the internet all together, not even China's great firewall can stop it.

          you arent making interest on crypto. You are speculating on it.

          What's the issue here? People buying investment properties are also speculating. People buying shares are likewise speculating, what's the problem?

          all crypto, not just some

          Some, maybe even most are scams, but there are definitely good quality cryptos that serve a legitimate purpose.

          never. They will not allow un unregulated scam with nothing behind it. Look at gov discussions. If it starts causing issues, they will just ban it.

          I agree with this, that's because they see it as a direct threat to them. They can't control it, so they are not going to be like El Salvador which itself doesn't have a national currency, they use USD. That's a reason to have it, its a plus in my books. Don't be fooled by CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies), these are not alternatives to cryptos.

          the point is that it is a gamble

          All investment is a gamble

          shares are not scams. They are regulated and give you real ownership and benefits.

          Do you know about penny stocks? I suggest you watch "The Wolf of Wall Street" which is based on real events.

          It is the modern equivalent of the dutch tulips.

          I heard this way back in 2010, comparing Bitcoin to Tulips. There are many points to debunk this which are summarized by this article, https://cointelegraph.com/news/do-you-still-compare-bitcoin-…. I suggest you take a read.
          TLDR: Bitcoin is not comparable to tulips. Back in the first cycle, the only similiarity is it went up alot and crashed, so you'd be forgiven to make this connection back in 2010/2011. The tulips mania never recovered, it went to the moon and crash and that's where it stayed, this is Bitcoin's fourth cycle now, so not even the price movement is the same as tulips now.

          • thesilverstarman on 22/03/2023 - 17:32
            +1

            @techlead: Fiat currency is backed by our government. It is real and accepted everywhere in Australia. Bitcoin is not backed by anyone or anything. It is not accepted anywhere. To be able to use it, you have to sell to someone else for cash. You can't buy property with it unless someone accepts it, or if you sell for cash. Then you have the mandatory reporting laws to identify criminals and tax evaders.
            Anything can be confiscated by government. But the reality is that precious metals have allowed people to escape warzones etc. Wealth advisors say that people should keep 10% of their assets as a hedge and as insurance. Crypto is not an assett.
            If a nation bans Crypto, anyone who still trades with it risks fines,prison etc. And what use is it if you cant use it or convert it to cash? If guns are banned, but some still keep them, is this wise? And yes, its a fair comparison.
            People buying shares do not speculate. Each share has intrinsic value, making it an assett. There is something behind it. And Im talking about Australia here, with a well regulated market to protect investors. Property is a physical assett. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value, is backed by nothing or no-one, is unregulated, and gov data suggests that it is used and the price manipulated by organised crime.
            Governments arent concerned about crypto or see it as a threat. They see it used by organised crime to launder money, to move money, to evade taxes, and to profit by manipulation of prices. Regulation of markets is there to try to stop crime and protect investors.It minimises risk. Bitcoin is all risk.
            As for the tulips, the comparison is fair, in that both are unsucured, unregulated and people get caught up and likely to be taken advantage of. Neither were/ are investments.
            When people hear the word investment, they think of something that is either real and physical, or backed by something so it has intrinsic value. You can insure an assett, and use it as security. Crypto is none of these. What do you think people are investing in with crypto? Literally nothing. And thats the problem.
            People think that its safe too. Its not. At present the blockchain cant be hacked. In the future quantam computers may be able to do this, but criminals arent worried about this now. They just go to the wallet, on the computer or phone. And once its gone, good luck. It cant be insured, has nobody providing guantees, and criminals know that Police wont bother investigation because it is international crime involved.
            If I invest in any assett class, the rises and falls are not random. They can be predicted and there are clear patterns. Risks are known in advance. This is not true of Crypto.
            I have made good money on crypto. But I know the issues and risks. It is pure speculation. The average person is hearing about it and thinking that they should get involved. Talk about investments, safety, future currencies etc are all crap, but people dont know that. If people here were talking about investment opportunities they would be arrested for providing false information and trying to sell investments. But they do the same for bitcoin. It is reckless and stupid. Good honest people will lose money. Thats my issue. The person who posted this has a history of trying to get others involved. He is encouraging others to invest, and that is illegal. He even offered to "help " others do it. But I bet that he wont advise them of the thing that licenced investment advisors tell clients - its a risk, and dont put anything into it that you arent ok with losing.

  • 2jzzzz on 21/03/2023 - 15:04
    +1

    I'm somewhat of a crypto fan but your take on it being based on something other than speculation and hope is weird. You say fiat is based on nothing more than trust.

    What do you think crypto is based on that's stable?

    I do like the decentralised aspect and anything visible on the blockchain. But those that once were the whales in the fiat world have been replaced by hales of the crypto world.

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 21:35

      What do you think crypto is based on that's stable?

      Code, it is open sourced, and everyone can see it. There can only ever be 21 mil BTC, the second this changes in the code, everyone knows. Unlike fiat currency, there's no limits to how much a central bank can print and how do we know the figures they report are even correct? They can lie and we are non the wiser.

      This is not the case with Bitcoin, we can verify on the blockchain.

      There are whales in any industry/asset class.

      • Autonomic on 22/03/2023 - 15:15
        +1

        Exchanges can wash trade BTC to manipulate the price. Tether pumps fake money into BTC, manipulating the price. Whales can manipulate the price by pumping and dumping. The wealth distribution (and therefore control) of BTC is so much more concentrated than any other system, which is saying a lot.

        • techlead on 22/03/2023 - 15:20
          -3

          These kind of shenanigans did not originate from crypto. Have you seen Wolf of Wall Street? This happens for penny stocks to this day.

          The issue is, these kind of price movements are never sustained, they are usually a flash in the pan type movements. Bitcoin is so big now, its not possible for a whale to do it, only a few mega whales are capable of doing this, like Satoshi himself (if he's still alive since he has millions of BTC in his wallet). Even the collapse of FTX which caused cascading liquidates did not push BTC down to $10k as people predicted.

          What you describe happens to many small medium to micro cap altcoins though. I see alot of pump and dump groups on telegram, don't ever participate in those.

  • z0s0 on 21/03/2023 - 15:40
    +3

    Lol, he's back! When today BTC is worth just 50% of the value it was when he posted his very amusing AMA. I expect to see him back when it's at 20%, 10% and 5% of the value on that date, too…

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 21:38

      This is because I have been busy over these couple of months researching and buying various cryptos.

      I've only recently stopped buying, at these levels I will not buy anymore at least for the next couple of months or when we have a retest. I think the max drawdown if the bottom was $16800 USD is 75% from the peak. For Bitcoin veterans, this is nothing. I experienced a 60-70% draw down in my first cycle back in 2013. I didn't sell, so I didn't lose anything. I don't think I will ever sell the 2BTC I got for $1600USD back in 2013.

  • ForkSnorter on 21/03/2023 - 15:41
    +1

    Don't expect bitcoin to keep going up in price. Do the math. Once 1 trillion has been pumped into it, where is the next trillion going to come from? It's got to come out of the pockets of people like you. Those pockets are limited. At the very most, bitcoin could double in price. But that would be very temporary (couple of days) because many investors would cash out at that point, like they always do. Crypto may be a way to make a bit of quick money for people prepared to take the risk, but too risky to over-invest in it.

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 18:34

      This was said when Bitcoin was at $1k, $10k, $15k etc.

      Bitcoin has demonstrated over its lifetime since 2009 that it is a reliable, censorship resistant and permissionless network. It has never been hack, it has never gone down. That's where its value is. How many banks have gone bankrupt since 2009?

      So there is no ceiling to Bitcoin's price because there's no floor to the value of fiat currencies.

      • ForkSnorter on 21/03/2023 - 18:52
        +4

        This was said when Bitcoin was at $1k, $10k, $15k etc.

        When Bitcoin was worth $1k, the market cap was 1/40th of what it is now. That means it was easy for the price to double or triple quickly because it didn’t require anywhere near as much money invested in it to push the price up. The higher the price goes, the lower the potential for further price gains because there is not enough money in the global financial system to support further gains. If it ever reaches the 2021 peak again, the price will rapidly decline as people cash out because a lot of people/institutions will be over-extended, and most of them are in it to profit.

  • deme on 21/03/2023 - 16:07
    +2

    Not this again….

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 18:35

      Here we go again…a new bull cycle is starting.

      I've been through 3 cycles, this will be my 4th. Let's do this all over again!

  • Protractor on 21/03/2023 - 16:19

    Today an interesting crypto story as the Mint mess grows.>

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-21/trivio-dumps-perth-mi…

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 18:37

      The issue here is not so much with crypto, but the management of crypto. The company are issuing a token to represent shares of gold they have, this is not a new concept, there are many other companies that do it, with the biggest being Paxos I think, https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/pax-gold.

      This is not a crypto issue, its because the company didn't follow laws, its just mismanagement.

      • Protractor on 21/03/2023 - 18:52

        Glad I'm in the audience and not the arena…
        Good luck. Spend it wisely.

  • Malik Nasser on 21/03/2023 - 16:56
    +4

    Such a divisive subject.
    People just need to do their own research and come to their own conclusions.

    I find it amusing that people say Bitcoin will go to zero soon. How could that possibly happen?
    It has no intrinsic value? Well if that is the case, then it always had no intrinsic value (since 2009), and yet it is still here. Intrinsic value does not equal to price (price is what you pay, value is what you get).
    No one will buy it? What about all the crazy people that already own it? Surely they will continue to buy it, especially if it goes down in price. The lower the price, the more they can buy, and with a finite total amount in circulation they just need to buy it all up, and trade it amongst themselves.
    Could it go to zero in the future? Sure, but I couldn't see that happening for a long time yet.

    As a thought experiment for people that DONT believe in Bitcoin, what would it take for you to change your mind (this can also be applied to people that DO believe in Bitcoin as well)?
    If Bitcoin is still around in 5 years / 10 years / 20 years / etc… would this have any impact on your belief in it?

    We should all look to have an open mind when considering things. Maybe at the moment this is not for you. But maybe at some point in the future things change.
    As long as you have done your research (openly and honestly), then whatever conclusion you come to, then that is fine. You do you.

    Regarding fiat currencies, they all eventually go to zero. Ray Dalio covers this for those who are interested.
    Is fiat currency bad? Hell no. It clearly has its flaws, but what doesn't. There are no perfect solutions.

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 18:28

      Great comment.

      A lot of people are asking, Will Bitcoin go to zero? They should also ask, can equities go to zero? Of course they can, in fact equities have gone to zero more often than Bitcoin. Bitcoin has never went to zero, while we have a long list of equities that have gone to zero, with the most recent being SVB, the equity value went to zero. Credit Suisse had a bit left, but its pretty much zero. When a bank gets bailed out, only the depositors get bailed out, all investors in the bank either take a haircut or get nothing back at all. Like those Credit Suisse bond holders, they are royally shafted with this deal, usually they are preferenced over shareholders in a bailout, but this time all those Credit Suisse bond holders lost out, went to zero, while at least Credit Suisse equity holders got some UBS shares.

      As a thought experiment for people that DONT believe in Bitcoin, what would it take for you to change your mind (this can also be applied to people that DO believe in Bitcoin as well)?
      If Bitcoin is still around in 5 years / 10 years / 20 years / etc… would this have any impact on your belief in it?

      It took me 4 years before I bought my first Bitcoin.

      Regarding fiat currencies, they all eventually go to zero.

      That is very true, it should be one of the certainties of life just like death and taxes. The value of fiat currencies will go to zero because they always maintain a level of inflation, that means it will continuously lose value. Fiat currencies going to zero just means you are losing purchasing power, so a loaf of bread will become $5, then $10, then $20 then $30 and beyond per loaf, that's inflation for you and that's how fiat currencies lose value.

      • Malik Nasser on 21/03/2023 - 21:49
        +2

        Fiat currencies are a belief system. As long as you can go down to the shop and exchange them for goods and services, then they can continue to work.
        They generally die when people lose faith in them.
        When a shop needs to change their prices once or twice a YEAR due to mild inflation (typical money creation), that is considered normal.
        When a shop needs to change their prices once or twice a MONTH due to high inflation (excessive money creation), that is considered a nuisance.
        When a shop needs to change their prices once or twice a DAY due to hyper-inflation (stupendous money creation), that is considered an end to that currency.
        History is littered with numerous examples of currencies that have become extinct.

        Charles Hoskinson had a live stream today on YouTube which is well worth a watch: 'Markets and Contagion'

        • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 21:56

          From sunny Coooolooooraaaado? :P

    • thesilverstarman on 22/03/2023 - 17:43

      But crypto is not currency. It has no intrinsic value but people buy to speculate. Ever seen the chain ponzi thing, the plane? People pay money to buy a seat on the imaginary plane, As the plane fills up, they move to the front, until they become pilots, and they get the cash paid for the plane tickets. And then it keeps on going. What are people buying? Nothing. But it still keeps on going. A similar one was Pentagano. A company in Italy ran it, and people were like religious converts telling you how this was legal, the future and an investment. But it wasnt and isnt.
      The idea of bitcoin is great, and maybe oneday there will be some form of that governments will embrace and people can use as currency worldwide. But this isnt it. The blockchain is brilliant and has already been used in many other areas. But the "bitcoin religious" refuse to see that it isnt accepted by any western governments, never will be, and is not an alternative to currency. It is not an assett in any way, and putting money into it is not investing, it is speculation. People are hoping that new blood will cause the price to rise, so that they can get more. It may not be a ponzi scheme, but it is certainly acting like it in that respect.

      • Nom on 22/03/2023 - 23:58
        +1

        But the "bitcoin religious" refuse to see that it isnt accepted by any western governments, never will be, and is not an alternative to currency. It is not an assett in any way, and putting money into it is not investing, it is speculation.

        I hate to point out the obvious, but nobody buying Bitcoin is doing it because they think it's going to be "accepted by governments" or become an "alternative to currency".

        People absolutely buy it because they want to make money. This is speculation and it's absolutely fine - this isn't a negative 🤷🏼‍♂️

  • websterp on 21/03/2023 - 17:46
    +1

    Username certainly checks out.

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 18:23

      I'm not linked with the Youtube Channel called Techlead.

  • GrueHunter on 21/03/2023 - 19:25
    +2

    I think we are starting to see the cryptocurrency market start to decouple from the traditional markets

    oh cool I've never heard anybody say that before

    like nobody ever said that during COVID

    i love how it's magic money and so somehow immune from rational decisions by investors who have a range of choices and different appetites for risk

    great to hear it's now only lost…let's see…a third of its value in the last year and only 57% since its peak

    I mean that's better than when it had lost two thirds of its value completely f*&^ing over anybody who bought into the hype around that time

    • techlead on 21/03/2023 - 19:48
      +1

      You are right, I don't have a crystal ball, I don't know if the decoupling will happen in this cycle or not. I hope so.

      If you are looking for losses, there are plenty to be had across all markets, alot of property investors are at more than 100% loss. Due to leverage, those in negative equity are at 100% loss. SVB investors are at 100% loss. Credit Suisse investors took a significant haircut as well.

      Meta is 47.6% down from its peak
      Tesla is 54.9% down from its peak.

      Many other shares have lost significant value. What's your point?

      • Autonomic on 22/03/2023 - 15:17
        +1

        META or TSLA aren't advertised as stores of value or alternatives to traditional financial systems though are they?

      • GrueHunter on 22/03/2023 - 20:22

        You're this close to getting it

        Many investment vehicles have gone up

        Many investment vehicles have gone down

        BTC has gone up

        BTC has gone down

        Normal sane person: they're the same thing, albeit some are riskier than others, and talk of "decoupling" from basic economic drivers is insanity

        Insane person: BTC is the second coming of Christ and it's magic money and something something decoupling

  • Typical16-bitEnjoyer on 21/03/2023 - 19:34
    +1

    If my money is in one of those banks, the bail outs mean I lose nada.

    Name one of the many failed exchanges that have seen anyone bailed out?

Login or Join to leave a comment
Login Join