Banking System Melting down While Bitcoin Melts up

techlead on 21/03/2023 - 10:40
Last edited 22/03/2023 - 12:51

I think we are starting to see the cryptocurrency market start to decouple from the traditional markets as people see how fragile the banking system is. Fiat currency (USD, AUD, CHF etc) are backed by nothing but trust, once that trust evaporates, like in the case of SVB, Signature Bank and now Credit Suisse, its back to the money printers to bail these institutions out. SVB in particular, bought "good quality" treasury bonds, yet they mistimed the market and the Feb screwed them over by hiking rates so quickly.

Its funny that in 2017, the Credit Suisse CEO said Bitcoin at $7000 was a "bubble" and now Credit Suisse has become Debit Suisse and Bitcoin is worth multiples of $7000.

It is very clear with the strength of Bitcoin recently that many people has now realized fiat currencies are not backed by anything and its worth gets diminished once the printer goes brrrrrrr. I'm very glad I've been aggressively buying my favorite crypto over these last couple of months. The new bull market is nearly upon us and Bitcoin and good quality alts will once again amazing people. As someone who as widely laughed at and ridiculed to daring to say Bitcoin will be $10k+ USD per coin one day back in 2013/2014, I have experienced these cycles before. As Bitcoin blasts through resistance levels on its way upwards, I'm very sure it will be more than $100k and then eventually more than $1 million per BTC.

I'm down to my last $AUD200k cash, rest of my net worth is all in crypto, I will probably stop buying now, just keep it as a buffer. I'm strapped onto this crypto rocket, who else is onboard?

PS: I'm not associated in any way to the YouTube channel called Techlead who famously adds "as a millionaire" to everything he says and allegedly ran a million dollar scam.

Financial Cryptocurrency

Comments

  • bulletbill88 on 24/03/2023 - 07:17

    Banking is an inherently risky activity. If banks were doing loans in crypto it would still be risky and there would still be the possibility of a bank run.

  • Farrba on 24/03/2023 - 09:48

    what happens if a bank collapses and you have same amount of savings and loan? do you still need to pay the loan but your savings are gone?

    • techlead on 24/03/2023 - 10:21

      Weird place to ask this question lol.

      Not a banking expert here, but looking at previous bailouts including the current ones, what usually happens is that the Feds take ownership of the bank over, including the day to day running of it. Top executives at SVB were fired and replaced by people appointed by the Feds, then they look for a buyer. In the meantime, people get access to their savings and their loan obligations continue as normal, so it doesn't dissolve their loan and their loan doesn't become immediately due, all previous terms remain the same, so they need to repay at the set time.

      do you still need to pay the loan but your savings are gone?

      No, you get your savings back, but still need to pay your loan as per the agreed payment terms.

  • liongalahad on 24/03/2023 - 10:17
    +5

    Lol really? Every time btc goes a few % up there's a genius chanting the greatness of crypto. 🤦🏻

  • stjep on 24/03/2023 - 11:53

    Yeah, nah, bitcoin is still garbage: https://newsletter.mollywhite.net/p/no-bitcoin-isnt-pumping-…

    • techlead on 24/03/2023 - 12:00

      Interesting take, well written article. She is a little biased though, she maintains Web3 is Going Just Great, a website that chronicles only some of the many disasters happening in the crypto world. Still, she does support her point of view.

      We are all reading the tea leaves at the moment. Its just too soon to come to any definitive conclusion why Bitcoin has pumped so much.

      I will read more of her articles, I like reading articles which are critical of crypto, that's the only way to improve, by trying to poke holes in my beliefs to see if they hold up.

      • stjep on 24/03/2023 - 12:02
        +2

        She is a little biased though

        Biased, or just correct?

        Don't confuse a consistent opinion with a bias. If she's discarding any countervailing evidence off hand that is bias, but if she's considering it and able to rebuff it then that is not bias.

        she maintains Web3 is Going Just Great, a website that chronicles only some of the many disasters happening in the crypto world

        Only so much you can do in a day, and the purpose of that website is a bit more tongue in cheek take on the worst excesses on the so called future of the internet.

        • lostgoat on 24/03/2023 - 12:14

          I like White picking up the out flows . I think there is nothing better in this field than not being the last person holding the baby :)

          • techlead on 24/03/2023 - 13:29
            +1

            @lostgoat:

            I like White picking up the out flows . I think there is nothing better in this field than not being the last person holding the baby :)

            Tell me you have no idea what "outflows" mean without saying you have no idea about what outflows are.

            Did you even read the article? This was covered by Molly, "crypto outflows represent only the movement of crypto, in this case from digital asset investment products, and don’t capture where it ends up."

            Crypto outflows mean the movement of crypto assets off exchanges. Given the events of last year, collapse of Celsius, Blockfi, FTX, Voyager and many other smaller crypto exchanges, it makes sense that outflows would increase. I contributed to this outflow, I've been buying then withdrawing to my cold wallet. I'm still "holding the baby", its just safe in my cold wallet instead of an exchange. Billions of assets have moved of BInance, and there was a period of time where some people speculated that they will collapse, but that never eventuated and they held strong.

            • lostgoat on 24/03/2023 - 15:00
              +1

              @techlead: What I mean is as you probably know is BTC has huge swings . I don't ever want to load up at the top of em . As I said before I'm not reliant on ups or downs . I make dough if the asset class survives, There no argument I think that even if 95% of other crypto currencies die . BTC will remain the last man standing of the other 5% that should live.

        • techlead on 24/03/2023 - 13:35
          +2

          Biased, or just correct?

          She is definitely biased, her website, https://web3isgoinggreat.com/ only covers negative stories about the field. There's no question she is biased, but its ok, nothing against her, she's not the only biased journalist/blogger.

          Whether she is correct or not, like I said, its too early to tell. She may be correct but time will tell.

          Don't confuse a consistent opinion with a bias

          That's the definition of bias lol. Having prejudice on something, which as defined by dictionary.com as having "a strong inclination of the mind or a preconceived opinion about something or someone."

          purpose of that website is a bit more tongue in cheek take on the worst excesses on the so called future of the internet

          I know, its interesting, that's why I'm reading more of her articles now. Doesn't change the fact that she's biased, all her stories fit her preconceived narrative. Not saying she's making things up, just saying she is selective about the facts she presents, hence biased. Its not a bad term, most journalists are biased, they have their own agenda which they are pushing.

          • zultan on 24/03/2023 - 13:56
            +3

            @techlead: You are of course, well known for your impartiality on the subject….

            • techlead on 25/03/2023 - 10:57

              @zultan: I'm more impartial than Molly. No one is totally impartial, we all have opinions, the difference is how stronger are those opinions held and will you change it in light of new evidence to the contrary.

              I'm willing to change my opinion, I did in 2013. I thought Bitcoin was a scam from 2009 to 2013, then changed my mind. I can change back of course if there's new information, but I've yet to be presented any new information that suggests Bitcoin is a ponzi and/or a scam. Other coins might be, a lot are, so you need to be careful.

          • lostgoat on 24/03/2023 - 16:56
            +1

            @techlead: I'll have to thank you m8 . You put out the bait and after finding some time to read your thread . You have caught a whale in your thread with somebodies' knowledge .

          • thesilverstarman on 24/03/2023 - 17:44
            -1

            @techlead: You are clearly breaking the law here. This is from ASIC.
            Conduct that may be misleading or deceptive to consumers can include:
            stating or conveying the impression that the crypto-assets (such as coins or tokens) or ICO offered are not a financial product if that is not the case
            stating or conveying the impression that a crypto-asset trading platform does not quote or trade financial products if that is not the case
            using social media to generate the appearance of a greater level of public interest in a crypto-asset or ICO
            undertaking or arranging for a group to engage in trading strategies to generate the appearance of a greater level of buying and selling activity for an ICO or crypto-asset
            failing to disclose adequate information about the ICO or crypto-asset, or
            suggesting that the ICO or crypto-asset is a regulated product or the regulator has approved the ICO or crypto-asset if that is not the case.
            We have been delegated powers from the ACCC to, in coordination with the ACCC, respond to potentially misleading or deceptive conduct relating to crypto-assets which affect Australian consumers.

            The laws require that a person providing adviceon crytpo-assets must hold an AFS licence with authorisation to provide this service. This is not an exhaustive discussion of all the relevant Australian laws that apply. It is the responsibility of the entities involved to ensure they comply with all relevant Australian laws.

            • thesilverstarman on 24/03/2023 - 17:46

              @thesilverstarman: Also, from an actual licenced economist for AMP capital, one of the largest private investment firms,
              https://www.ampcapital.com/au/en/insights-hub/articles/2021/…
              This is also fits in with Warren Buffet who said that he advises not to put money into Crypto, and that he would never do so.

              • localhost on 24/03/2023 - 17:49

                @thesilverstarman: Who is this Warren Buffet, never heard of him. /s

                But techlead - yes, he is 24/7 in the forum, ready with the next 'investment' advice :)

              • techlead on 25/03/2023 - 11:01
                +1

                @thesilverstarman: Thanks for the laugh, I love your comments. Lightens up the day. haha

                Let me know how it goes with ASIC, I'm pretty sure they will just tell you to go kick rocks or pound sand. I've got some good location recommendations where you can do that if you are interested.

            • techlead on 25/03/2023 - 11:00
              -1

              @thesilverstarman: If you believe I'm breaking the law, then do something about it. Some people made similar comments in my AMA thread in 2021, not sure if it was you or someone else.

              Let ASIC know about it then.

              By your definition, many people on forums are illegal financial advice, especially on Twitter as well, what's ASIC doing about it?

          • stjep on 26/03/2023 - 19:31
            -1

            @techlead:

            https://web3isgoinggreat.com/ only covers negative stories about the field

            It is getting the coverage it deserves.

            That's the definition of bias lol.

            No it isn't. Consistent opinion ≠ bias.

            • techlead on 05/04/2023 - 11:33
              +1

              @stjep: Depends on the definition of consistent opinion I guess. Is the opinion consistent because it is persistent and new information is disregarded?

              If the consistent opinion is based on selective information and no new information is considered or only new information of a certain kind is considered, then that definitely means bias.

              I know most if not all journalists are biased, they have an agenda, that's why I like to source my information from a wide variety of sources.

  • cunningdrew on 24/03/2023 - 15:12

    BTC halvening is connecting with a few other banking world events.

    Things are going to be on fire come mid year. By years end you may well be able to buy a Ferrari with a Bitcoin. Maybe pair a boy and girl Bitcoin to buy a house. But that's pure speculation.

    As a crypto coin co-founder, I am well intrigued and interested in this market. Yes my crypto is on BSC network, however we're far from meme and are actually working to provide some pretty important use case for the average crypto investor.

    The current mini-bull we are seeing is an exact replication of the last 2 crypto halvenings, almost to the day to the dollar. This is not unique and it's not a fluke. It's the third time this path has travelled.

    < Not financial advice. Do your own research. >

    https://beincrypto.com/btc-halving-65-completed-signal-of-bt…

    • stjep on 05/04/2023 - 14:36
      -1

      By years end

      Almost nobody cares about crypto or Bitcoin outside of the fans who swallowed the Kool-Aid. By the end of the year it will all seem like a silly thing that happened a decade ago.

      The media and general public have moved on. They're into AI again. Bitcoin had well over a decade and could not come up with a single use case outside of speculation.

  • greatlamp on 24/03/2023 - 17:24
    +3

    There is a fundamental misunderstanding that all crypto bros have, they say since money is fiat, then both money and crypto have 0 inherent value.

    The value of USD is not fundamentally 0, it has value because I need to obtain USD to pay for any goods sold out of the USA, its fundamental value is the total value of US exports.

    Bitcoin is not used to settle transactions for goods or services anyone, not even people who would otherwise want to trade in cryptocurrency.

  • Peeper on 24/03/2023 - 18:47
    +3

    Bitcoin ponzi scammer gon' scam.

  • Hearthstone on 24/03/2023 - 19:50
    +3

    simple rule don't buy stuff that doesn't have intrinsic value
    if you do then it a gamble/speculation not investment

    • Bystander on 24/03/2023 - 22:00
      +1

      One of my simple rules is to never invest in something I don't understand.
      Nowhere have I been able to find details of the algorithm or whatever that is used to mine Bitcoin.

      • techlead on 05/04/2023 - 11:37
        +1

        Nowhere have I been able to find details of the algorithm or whatever that is used to mine Bitcoin.

        You obviously haven't been looking hard enough. Hint: This information can be found in Bitcoin's whitepaper written by Satoshi Nakamoto, just google it, its only 9 pages long. It details exactly how Bitcoin works, then this can be verified by looking at Bitcoin's code which is totally open sourced, so you can verify it if you have the will and also the knowledge.

        You can very easily find the things you are complaining that you can't find.

  • iatnuy on 24/03/2023 - 23:59
    +4

    techlead trying to get us some fresh exit liquidity during this echo bubble

    love your work mate

    • techlead on 05/04/2023 - 11:39
      +1

      Haha, Bitcoin's volume in the last 24 hours was more than $15 billion USD.

      How much liquidity do you think the OzB community can contribute to that? I can market sell all my BTC and it wouldn't even affect the market one blip.

      • iatnuy on 05/04/2023 - 11:53

        I was just kidding but exit liquidity looks to be here watching this morning's melt up

        • techlead on 05/04/2023 - 11:55

          I really don't think there's much exit liquidity at the moment. The Bitcoin price is so resilient because all those who wanted to sell has already sold, there are no sellers left.

          That's why it has hit a floor, that's why it refused to go down below $17k or stay there for a prolonged period of time. That's where I did the most buying in these last few months, I ain't waiting for $10k BTC.

          We are not going to see exit liquidity until Bitcoin is above $100k in the next 2-3 years.

  • ssfps on 25/03/2023 - 04:14
    +3

    Invest in fiat and get rug pulled by the banks/fed, or invest in crypto and get rugpulled by smaller whales. Who do you want to get scammed by today?

  • No ONE on 25/03/2023 - 06:05
    +4

    fiat currencies are not backed by anything

    And bitcoin is backed by air?

    • lostgoat on 25/03/2023 - 09:07

      Its nice air . I wish I could brew it. But my smells don't have the technology, decentralization and platform to do BTC transactions. I keep on stressing in a sec the crap can be in my bank account ready to do as I please. So it has value or the Scammers have stuffed up .

    • pinkybrain on 25/03/2023 - 11:36

      it is backed by speculation, mom/dads + people who want to get rich quick, and crypto exchanges that suddenly go bust

  • IWoNdEr on 25/03/2023 - 18:44

    Horses for courses. There's thousands of way to invest your hard earn money and glad you found your niche.

    Back to checking the monthly property manager statements for me :D

  • archieduh on 25/03/2023 - 20:15

    What is crypto backed by? Honest question..
    Cash is backed by trust of a reliably country..
    And crypto?

    • zjz93 on 25/03/2023 - 20:56

      cash is backed by the money printer
      crypto is backed by speculation

      • techlead on 25/03/2023 - 22:41
        -1

        Crypto is backed by code and a thriving community of developers and users

        • archieduh on 25/03/2023 - 23:04

          What is the material value of code?
          Honestly don't get it..
          It's same as trust in a currency in the end…
          Thriving community of Devs?
          Doesn't bitcoin derive value from energy? Mining coins by using electricity?

          • zjz93 on 25/03/2023 - 23:17

            @archieduh: No, the value is derived by demand of the market. The more people that want it outnumber people that are selling, the value increases.

            The difference is that banks are controlled by a single entity while crypto transactions are often powered by the computations completed by millions of machines around the world.

        • pinkybrain on 26/03/2023 - 00:05
          +1

          and all those developers want to get rich by creating their own coins..
          and one of those devs just got arrest recently..

          https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/investing/crypto-fugit…

          crypto also backed by crypto exchanges that suddenly close
          and people no longer can withdraw their coins since it is now all gone

        • stjep on 26/03/2023 - 19:33
          -1

          Amazing that thriving community of developers still hasn't come up with a single use case for crypto.

          It's all speculation, scams, pumps and dumps.

    • liongalahad on 25/03/2023 - 22:04

      By absolutely nothing, thin air.
      It will just take a couple of large governments to declare it illegal or something and it will evaporate into oblivion.

      • zjz93 on 25/03/2023 - 23:19
        +3

        it will take just a couple cycles of money printing by a single government to evaporate the value of a currency into oblivion.

  • liongalahad on 25/03/2023 - 22:11

    techlead on the OzBargain forum: "Bitcoin will hit $1Mil, I don't know when or why but I'm sure it will."

    Warren Buffett on CNBC: “If you owned all of the Bitcoin in the world and you offered it to me for $25, I wouldn't take it. It doesn't produce anything, it's useless."

    • techlead on 25/03/2023 - 22:41

      Who do you think will be right?

      • liongalahad on 26/03/2023 - 02:03
        +3

        I have a feeling it's the multi billionaire one lol

    • zjz93 on 25/03/2023 - 23:22

      If you owned all the bitcoin in the world, of course it becomes useless because it no longer has any value as there is zero room for circulation.

      You cannot compare an asset such as land to a currency, just like how a $1 coin holds no value on its own.

      • pinkybrain on 26/03/2023 - 00:01
        +1

        the problem with bitcoin is that people hold onto it waiting in hope for it to increase in value
        like the hype that had occur previously (from people who has FOMO and wants to get rich quick)

        bitcoin was meant to replace money for transactions
        but most people are actually not doing that (cause they are holding onto it)

        people will still need to use money for daily transactions

        So bitcoin will always remain that..
        a digital asset that people speculate on

        • liongalahad on 26/03/2023 - 02:01
          +1

          Exactly, people simply buy it hoping to find someone in the future willing to pay for it more than they did. There's absolutely nothing else to it, there is no use, does not produce anything. No one uses it for transactions other than drug dealers and scammers.

          It's the opposite of gold. Gold will always have value because there are several uses to it and it's rare. Someone who puts their money on btc when things go south is just a moron in my view, their luck is that there are many other as much or worse than them. But this is bound to end.

          Also it's so annoying having to read all this every time btc goes up a bit, honestly

        • loodealie on 26/03/2023 - 03:40

          I think you'll find the people who wanted to use bitcoin as money for transactions have long tried hard-forking and may have moved away from all forms of bitcoin entirely.

          The narrative for the last several years is all about store of value or used as settlement now. You're just not seeing the value!

  • misu p on 26/03/2023 - 10:43
    +2

    Shhh… why do you keep telling people how good Bitcoin is? just buy it all yourself cheaply and enjoy your riches…

    Unless you need other people to buy it to actually have any value and go up… hmm…

    Influencers do their part pumping (while dumping) but I guess everybody needs to do their part too, just by using posts like this. Every little post helps right?

    I do have crypto…. but honestly… 99% of it has no little value… without any actual use… used to usually scam people. Also, a crypto guy talking about how fiat has no value but trust is priceless. Just like they keep talking about banks while forgetting about FTX / 3 arrows / terra / bitconnect, etc. Again priceless. If anything, what is happening to the banks should be a lesson that crypto is complete shit.

    • techlead on 05/04/2023 - 11:53
      +1

      FTX, 3 arrows, Terra, Bitconnect, these are all examples of flaws in the traditional banking system. These are all due to fraud, greed and mismanagement, which can occur in any industry, it is not unique to crypto.

      Scammers are going to scam and criminals are going to crim, they will use crypto, fiat, email whatever technology which enables them to scam and take money from people.

      Has the Bitcoin network collapsed or went down since inception? The point is a good decentralized network like Bitcoin has never been hacked nor stopped, that's where most of its value is.

  • lostgoat on 26/03/2023 - 10:51

    The thing I don't like about BTC is the security . If you don't keep it secure it like the Wild West . Someone can steal all of your crypto and there is no recourse. The transaction trail is there but there is nothing you can do .

    • Bluto Mindpretzel on 26/03/2023 - 12:09

      Agree it's not for the masses that is for sure. Even though I have skin in the game (held in offline cold storage, mostly purchased back in 2013), I honestly don't think crypto is the answer to fiat, just an experiment along the journey to finding a replacement. The cronies in power of the financial world will always rig it in their favour though.

      Having said that, there are no end of stories of people getting scammed to send money to a BSB - Account No and having no recourse either, which honestly boggles my mind but it happens. Nothing is truely safe. Even if you keep your money in a bank, then the central bank goes and issues another billion units of said currency, they've essentially devalued your currency making it worth that little bit less, as though they reached in and stole it from you.

      We need to return to bartering with clam shells :D

      • Nom on 26/03/2023 - 17:29
        +1

        no end of stories of people getting scammed to send money to a BSB - Account No and having no recourse either, which honestly boggles my mind but it happens

        These stories are infuriating - the banks should absolutely be able to reverse the transaction if it turns out to be fraudulent ! And even if the money at the other end has already been withdrawn, they should know exactly who withdrew it, who owns the account, where they are, where the money is now, and every other possible piece of information. Because that's a core function of a bank !

        It's totally crazy that they can just say the money is gone, and sorry we don't know where. WTF.

  • frostman on 26/03/2023 - 15:55
    -1

    Bitcoin is a ponzi-scheme, it's a very typical model of a Pump n Dump.

    Typical scenario.: BTC starts to go up, people holding significant value of BTC (you… for e.g.) start to make noise, and market it's excellence and superiority over the Fiat currency.
    These people are typically in a current loss hence the need to start to pump it up again
    The next pump would see many people of your kind quickly sell and become millionaires (or rich), and the cycle starts all over again.

    Let me ask you this, these people that made it big in BTC, and referring to your friends. Did they not SELL their BTC back into FIAT for them to live their happily retired lives?
    So one portion of you demeans and degrades the Fiat system, yet on the other hand when your BTC is making a 500% profit, you sell back to Fiat to enjoy the luxuries - hypocrisy.

    Bitcoin has been around since for over 10 years, and I still cant buy a Car, Book an Air flight, Buy a House, or pay a stripper in BTC.
    So what good does its worth of $100,000 do, when you're eventually going to go back to the "Printed BRRrr"?

    None of you ponzi-scammers can answer who set the finite limit of the BTC's digital algorithm, why is there only X amount of BTC?
    Yes the Fiat currency has no backing, but that's because the elite and capitalists and zionists wanted it this way, they got rid of JFK when he signed Executive Order 1110 to transfer power from the Federal Reserve to the United States Department of the Treasury by replacing Federal Reserve Notes with silver certificates.

    Actual FIAT currency is not bad at all, it's meant to replace physical transfer of Gold and Silver for trade, a $1 bill would be a contract by the government to suggest it's worth X grams of gold or silver which would have a physical presence.

    Your Bitcoin solved none of this, in fact it's made it worse by offering an intangible currency, backed by nothing and only accessible via Internet as the next best thing.
    It's value is non-intrinsic, it's value is set by a bunch of people like you whom think it's worth X.

    • tunzafun001 on 27/03/2023 - 01:36
      +5

      Every single finite resource on Earth that has value is really a Ponzi. Lets use property
      Those who bought a couple of houses many years ago can now use that equity to buy multiple times more. This is now known as a CBD and being like the top of the Ponzi. Newcomers can hardly buy one and only on the out skirts. Making the CBD land rarer and increasing the value of holdings by early holders. So its not the Ponzi nature that puts me off anything.

      I think any investment always needs to link back to human behavior. Ie. Property again - You can buy a 3 bedroom home (with stable employment options) today for under $100k no problems. BUT it wont be in a CBD. Humans are pack animals and are willing to flog themselves into oblivion to occupy a patch nearer to someone else (even though it will cost 10x more).

      So why Bitcoin? The GFC / cash is trash/ banks are bad. The appeal of having an asset outside the banks 'control'. The peoples asset if you will.

      Reality - Crypto, Cash, Property, Shares or Tulips all have value because humans say so. So each of these assets are at the whims of humans. As it turns out, humans on mass are inheritantly evil shit.
      Banks dont care if they forclose, or managed something poorly and equally crypto scammers (nor exchanges) dont care if they took your grandparents life savings.
      Linking back to everything is a ponzi, means everything can be controlled by those who have more. So again everything is exposed to manipulation.

      Crypto, Shares and Cash are highly liquid, therefore highly manipulated.

      The Reserve bank are manipulating cash right now. They print money, then increase interest rates. The banks lent money at 1.5% to service my loan, but now are allowed to ask for 5.5%. So its a winfall for the banks. But who owns banks…humans (share holders). So basically we are making poor people struggle at the bottom…just to give it to those at the top. Did someone say Ponzi?

      It doesnt matter a stuff if something is regulated or not. Humans are involved. Bankers, Elon Musk or Joe average are all humans and exhibit the same traits.

      So the problem with Crypto "the asset for the people"..is people. End goal, take as much as you can from everyone else. The GUI for transactions is nothing short of pathetic. The ease in which one can be scammed or make a mistake is rediculous. Hacks, bank runs, volatility, exorbant costs of exchange, exchange and cross chain exploits every where. So that needs sorting before it can remotely be considered as a currency. Block chain technology yes, currency..no. Just the name "Crypto Currency" is a blatant lie itself!

      So Bitcoin..The unhacked shiny toy produced post GFC. Is it currently one of the best transportable liquid storage of wealth? It probably is…for now. But it will be replaced (lets say some fururistic energy technology in dark matter - extreme example). Whatever humans value at the time. If it gets hacked…well. Satoshi dumps the lot not being ideal. Till then, its an equally viable asset that exists in a nest of snakes. In fairness, every house will one day be consumed by the sun, so everything has an end (again extreme example, yet true).

      So what is the solution. Get to the top of as many finite ponzis as you can.

      My near 50 trips around the sun advice is this. Diversify into finite assets (but not too much as taxation following becomes a nightmare) and find an asset that heamorages a passive income. Blue chip shares with dividends, CBD houses with rent, Blue chip blockchain tech with staking yield through to farming land with produce. Each produces something you can reinvest, or use as secure income when you need it. Looking at you next covid.. .

      • techlead on 27/03/2023 - 10:54

        Very well written post.

        By the time I rack up 50 trips around the sun, I'd be long retired.

        • tunzafun001 on 27/03/2023 - 11:57

          Cheers mate. I think you could retire now.
          I'm highly envious that you have a job that you go to because you enjoy it, rather than need it. That is your biggest winfall!

          • techlead on 27/03/2023 - 11:58

            @tunzafun001: I spend so much time at work, what's the point of having a job I don't enjoy, so I've always looked for roles that I enjoy and if I don't like it, I leave pretty quickly.

        • frostman on 27/03/2023 - 13:45
          -1

          You just negged my Post yet couldnt provide an answer…typical Bitcoin Mascot

      • frostman on 27/03/2023 - 14:09
        -2

        Problem with Bitcoin Mascots is whenever a person points out the fallacies of Bitcoin, they immediately build a strawman and start to impale the FIAT currency, words such as: 'Printing Money', 'Unregulated', 'Banks Hate You', spring to mind.
        Why can't there be middle ground? Just because I think BTC is a Ponzi Scam of the century, doesn't mean im rallying behind the federal reserve's way of handling legal tender.
        I think the best form of currency is Gold and Silver backed Currency. Impossible to Implement? No. Extremely Hard? Yes.

        Lets use property, Those who bought a couple of houses many years ago can now use that equity to buy multiple times more. This is now known as a CBD and being like the top of the Ponzi. Newcomers can hardly buy one and only on the out skirts

        What a rubbish example of Ponzi. You wouldnt know what Ponzi is even if Charles Ponzi slapped you across the face.
        These newcomers are not in a financial loss because others bought into the CBD structure which ultimately raised prices, they're simply affected by a phenomenon called "Supply Shortage" - tough nuggets, buy elsewhere.
        On the other hand with BTC, you get 500 early investors buy at $1,000/BTC, and 500 later investors buy at $50,000/BTC. The early investors sell and take the profits (at $50,000/BTC price), only for the BTC price to plummet for the later investors and make a terrible loss…bad analogy bob.

        The Reserve bank are manipulating cash right now. They print money, then increase interest rates. The banks lent money at 1.5% to service my loan, but now are allowed to ask for 5.5%.

        That's not how it works, go read up on an economic condition called Inflation.

        So why Bitcoin? The GFC / cash is trash/ banks are bad. The appeal of having an asset outside the banks 'control'. The peoples asset if you will.

        Yeah cool, look up 'Precious Metals' - it's also a similar asset, outside the bank's control which can be sold and traded.

        every house will one day be consumed by the sun..

        Starting to regret responding to you TBH, your commentary is wildly exaggerated, whimsical and fantasy-charged. o_O

        • tunzafun001 on 27/03/2023 - 15:07
          +1

          Cheers for the reply. I'll concede and change it to "ponzi or pyramid in nature". It's just a word, and our entire economy is built on it. What would happen if no one had babies for 10 years?

          So your argument kind of supports what I'm saying..sort of, but just turned slightly:

          Ie. It would be a tough sell convincing new home owners that they aren't in financial loss (ie. now need to pay way too much for the same thing) due to Baby Boomers buying everything?

          But it is simply supply and demand indeed (ie. a finite resource), and they can always buy elsewhere, but elsewhere is not where they want to be..that is the finite resource (pretty sure I said that).

          EXACTLY the same for Bitcoin. There's plenty of other options to buy elsewhere. Plenty of people dumped Bitcoin recently above Microstrategies avg buy in price. Is that Ponzi in nature? Probs not. But is it still 'Ponzi in nature" (due to being finite)…definitely is. If Bitcoin is not for you, don't buy it. Buy something else (see my last line).

          Don't get me started on the way inflation is handled. Summary, spending should be controlled by taxation (subject to a taxation overhaul), even GST going to 11% would be better…but not interest rates - for reasons already stated above (and just look what's happening right now..).

          Precious metals are sort of outside the banks control (except banks are invested in them). ie. MQG recently dumped S32 shares, and gave them to MQG holders to sell or keep. But governments can definitely control precious metals. Watch what happens to our Iron Ore prices if our relationship with China sours. But sure, everyone should have some investment in precious metals, I do.

          Lastly, I should mention I hold zero Bitcoin. So have no financial interest in it. At my age bracket/ risk analysis, and where I see it heading (vs other investments) I had a buy in at $15k. It never got there, and those who got in earlier, well done. But if I was younger, I'd also have a different buy in price. Still millions of fixed loans coming to an end / Satoshi stash to dump, and I haven't followed to see where the Mt Gox sitch is at. Who know's, I might get in yet.

          Lastly, invest nothing, and you are heading backwards slowly. Bet on one horse, and that horse dies..then you are heading backwards quickly.

        • techlead on 05/04/2023 - 11:50
          +1

          Ok, let's use your analogy.

          On the other hand with BTC, you get 500 early investors buy at $1,000/BTC, and 500 later investors buy at $50,000/BTC. The early investors sell and take the profits (at $50,000/BTC price), only for the BTC price to plummet for the later investors and make a terrible loss…bad analogy bob.

          Let's say someone bought a house in Sydney for $1 mil in 2013, in 2017 they sell it for $2.5 mil to another guy, then $3mil to another guy in 2021. Now that house is worth $2.6 mil, the last guy is now at a huge loss. Assuming 20% deposit, borrowing the rest, taking only stamp duty as costs (no other costs like mortgage fees, interest and council fees), the last guy is now down $600,000 - $149,508 (stamp duty) - $400,000= $50,492 equity left.

          Is property a ponzi scheme?

          A ponzi scheme has to be centrally operated, otherwise its not a ponzi scheme, if the price of an asset is determined by the market, then it can't be a ponzi scheme. Charles Ponzi never invested in ANY assets priced by the market, he merely just moved money around, paying early investors off with new money.

          I don't believe the crypto nor the property market is a ponzi, but I will use your analogy to show that using your flawed logic, I can say the property market is a ponzi scheme as well.

          • frostman on 07/04/2023 - 11:01
            -1

            @techlead:

            Is property a ponzi scheme?

            No it's not, because a house is a tangible asset. It's a roof on your head, it's a dwelling that you inspected.
            Even if house prices in Sydney go down by 20%, you're at home, no one is forcing you to sell, you own land.
            Demand/supply is no the only factor of rising house prices, but macro economics, things such as war in Ukraine can make house prices go up in Australia as a safe place with prosperity to raise kids.

            What causes BTC to go up? Nothing. People like you. Go on Twitter and pump up the valuation.
            People like Elon Musk tweeting "Doge" and Doge goes up 1,000% - this doesn't happen to property.

            I can say the property market is a ponzi scheme as well.

            wow

            • techlead on 07/04/2023 - 12:17
              +1

              @frostman:

              No it's not, because a house is a tangible asset. It's a roof on your head, it's a dwelling that you inspected.

              Tangible asset or not, doesn't mean its good value. If you paid $5 mil for a house, now its $2 mil, you have lost money on paper regardless. Look at what happened during the GFC, being a tangible asset did not save those affected by it the most, eg in Detroit. There are still communities where entire streets of houses are abandoned and dilapidated.

              Just because something is intangible, doesn't mean it has no value.

              Even if house prices in Sydney go down by 20%, you're at home, no one is forcing you to sell, you own land.

              Have a read about what happened during the GFC. Whilst its true that no one (as in person or government) is going to force you to sell, however the invisible hand of the market and market forces will force you to sell. Why did so many people sell or even abandon their house during the GFC, if "no one is forcing them to sell"?

              What causes BTC to go up? Nothing. People like you. Go on Twitter and pump up the valuation.
              People like Elon Musk tweeting "Doge" and Doge goes up 1,000% - this doesn't happen to property.

              So a property goes up 50% in a year without any renovations. Why did it go up then? I've seen this alot, the Barangaroo residential apartments, those who were lucky enough to be able to buy off the developer, on-sold it to another buyer within a few months for 30-50% profit before the apartments were delivered. Why?

              What causes BTC to go up is the need to have a decentralised, censorship resistant and permissionless network to transfer value. As more and more people see this need, BTC will be valued higher, that's where most of BTC's value comes from.

              wow

              Wow

  • lnq on 26/03/2023 - 20:08
    +1

    do air have value? ofcause without air you can't not live! so it has important value. depends on way you look at it, everything has value! bitcoin has an important value! if you value your dollar 💵, bitcoin will be more valuable, because it opposite side of your value haha 😆 which stop money printing of country effectively!

    • techlead on 26/03/2023 - 21:30

      In other words, there's no ceiling to Bitcoin's price because there's no floor to the value of your fiat currency

      • frostman on 27/03/2023 - 14:14

        What's the bet you're sitting there waiting for BTC to hit over 80K AUD for you to quick-sell back to the no-floor FIAT? lol

        • techlead on 27/03/2023 - 14:19

          I ain't selling at $80k AUD. I'm strapped in for $200k+ USD. There's zero chance I'm selling at the previous ATH, history doesn't repeat, it rhythms and its telling me that's not a good idea.

          The previous high was $19900 USD, I didn't sell at that point. I wouldn't be selling at $80k AUD either. When the time comes, it will blast through it anyways. When BTC challenged the $19900USD level again during the last bull run, it sliced through it with zero resistance.

          • Nom on 27/03/2023 - 21:11

            @techlead:

            I ain't selling at $80k AUD. I'm strapped in for $200k+ USD. There's zero chance I'm selling at the previous ATH

            At $80K AUD we're talking tens of millions of dollars - so why wouldn't you sell ? That's effectively an infinite amount of money, why would you hold out for even more ?

            • techlead on 27/03/2023 - 22:02
              -1

              @Nom: I still have tens of millions now. I don't think its infinite money.

              I'm definitely strapped in the rocket for more.

            • liongalahad on 05/04/2023 - 10:06
              +1

              @Nom: thats the exact reason why most people "investing" in crypto make no money: greed. They always think it's going to keep going up, until it goes very much down. They never sell. And eventually they lose everything.

              There is no investment in the world where when it hits +100% form when you buy, you dont sell… unless you're stupid.

              • Nom on 05/04/2023 - 11:31

                @liongalahad: I genuinely don't understand the mindset here - once you're into the multiple tens of millions of dollars, you've got multi generational wealth for your family, your kids, their kids, etc. etc. - that's enough money to self-multiply, and so once invested the pot will only ever get bigger.

                What could you do with even more money than that ? Whatever it is, must be incredibly important, given that you're risking it against your $xx millions of crypto crashing down again.

        • idjces on 27/03/2023 - 21:37
          +2

          tbf anyone with decent wealth wouldn't need to sell liquid positions like crypto/shares etc, there are numerous methods to hedge your allocations and manage risk better

  • pook1e341 on 27/03/2023 - 12:32

    I like your insights! Especially on the old thread during last year's downward price movement.

    Can I ask:
    How old are you?
    What job do you have? You must really enjoy it if you still work despite being able to quit at any time!

    • techlead on 27/03/2023 - 14:21

      How old are you?

      I'm in my early 30s, married with a kid.

      What job do you have? You must really enjoy it if you still work despite being able to quit at any time!

      I work in Technology as a tech lead, hence my username. I benefited from the tech boom, my salary is quite high compared to most people, $200k+ base + Super + Bonus.

      • pook1e341 on 27/03/2023 - 14:30

        Nice, I bought 3 btc back in 2011 but lost my keys, so I've written that off. Only came back a decade later… better late than never I guess.

        Also, what's your opinion in other blockchain activities, such as DEX LP'ing/farming, NFT's and airdrop hunting?

        • techlead on 27/03/2023 - 14:38

          It's never too late to buy Bitcoin. Keys management is very important, but the crypto industry has come a long way, so its alot easier to manage your keys nowadays. Remember this guy? https://www.businessinsider.com/james-howells-threw-away-bit…

          Funny thing is, he found his hard drive in the dump and was able to recover his wallet, but it contained Bitcoin cash, not Bitcoin lmao, so he's currently in debt unfortunately.

          Also, what's your opinion in other blockchain activities, such as DEX LP'ing/farming, NFT's and airdrop hunting?

          I'm definitely for onchain staking, especially when this staking keeps the blockchain secure, such as ADA and ETH staking. For LPing, I don't like the impermanent loss, so I don't usually do it unless its with say two stable coins, then there's no impermanent loss.

          I think NFTs are not worth so much, hence I haven't bought any.

          I haven't gone out of my way to airdrop hunt, but I have taking part in some big airdrops like the Uniswap airdrop and the recent ARB airdrop, its pretty good, but I don't go out of my way to hunt for it.

          • pook1e341 on 27/03/2023 - 15:36

            @techlead: Cool. Do you have a group of IT friends/colleagues that you bounce ideas off of, or has it been a solo journey?

            I'm trying to get my family into Web3, which they're quite receptive of. We like the idea of learning new things, regardless of the outcome.

            • techlead on 27/03/2023 - 22:06

              @pook1e341: I have a group of IT and non-IT friends who are into crypto or have joined the journey a lot the way. Its definitely not a solo journey, especially with so many online communities now. It started out pretty solo, but crypto has come a long way.

              I like to read what critics of crypto and web3 have to say, Molly White is a great source, https://web3isgoinggreat.com/, it keeps you grounded and also challenges your beliefs.

              The way I see it, this is all new tech. Read about all the issues the transition to cars faced. Early cars were totally unreliable, there was no supporting infrastructure (gas stations, paved roads etc, muddy roads were very bad for early cars, horse and carriage were fine with it) and no mass production so quite expensive, it was a rich person's toy. Same goes for internet, it was clunky, cumbersome and difficult and slow to use initially, nothing like today. I think in 3, 5 or 10 years time, the crypto space will be completely different, just like the internet of today is nothing like the internet 10 or 15 years ago.

  • welcomeUniverseWorld on 03/04/2023 - 13:55
    +1

    Isn't this kind of thought usually marks a local top?

    • techlead on 05/04/2023 - 11:40

      Time will tell I guess.

      ETH just made a new local top, over $1900, will be hold? Let's check back in a week's time.

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