How Many People Here Are Secretly Scared of an Increase in Housing Supply?

AustriaBargain on 07/02/2024 - 15:07

“We have consistently said, including to the Greens, that the key to the solution for housing in this country is housing supply" - Albanese

If housing supply were raised to such a degree that house values in most areas dropped dramatically and rents stabilised back to where they used to be years ago, that would mean people with investment properties could lose out on hundreds of thousands of dollars that they otherwise would have eventually realised. If supply was aggressively dealt with and the bubble outside of inner and Harbourside Sydney popped for good then some investors could lose millions.

How many people here who own investment properties, or whose parents own some, are secretly scared of house prices being lowered sometime in the future and rents going way down? Do you feel your own wealth, or wealth you stand to inherit one day, is being attacked by talks from the PM and endless talk from the Greens about tackling housing supply and ending incentives for investment in existing properties?

Financial

Comments

  • ozbargainsam on 07/02/2024 - 20:42

    Nope. The only thing I'm afraid of are apartment blocks towering over my home, but it's unlikely. I'm in an established area where the prices were high before COVID (bought a long time back) so house supply (not apartment supply) simply won't happen And apartments and rezoning for apartments don't compete with houses so unless it's a house price bubble, I've got nothing to worry about.

    My parents' also have properties for rental. In that area, a large supply of new housing might reduce rental price pressure, but it would be a net economic benefit for the non-capital city. So it would be a wash.

    In general, I'd be worried about the transport and road infrastructure.

  • Eeples on 07/02/2024 - 20:57
    +2

    Increased social housing.
    Granny flat subsidies.
    Removing negative gearing.
    Counting a percentage of family home in asset test for pensions
    Reducing immigration
    Increasing unemployment
    Higher interest rates
    Increased Land releases
    Restricting foreign purchases

    I think you would need about 7/9 of these things for prices of houses to decrease significantly.

    • Gdsamp on 07/02/2024 - 20:59
      -1

      Reducing immigration

      You are now banned from /r/Australia

      • Eeples on 07/02/2024 - 21:01

        The point I’m making is that there isn’t just one or two reasons why housing is so unaffordable.

        Not sure of the point you are trying to make.

  • DingoBilly on 08/02/2024 - 07:58
    +4

    I have investment properties. Sure, it would suck a bit to not get as much money as I could, but I'm ok with that.

    People forget that houses are an investment like any other. It's stupid if it just goes up forever; if there's no risk then it's a broken system. And it means our future generations are (profanity). I'd much prefer everyone having good access to homes than just the wealthy and privileged few that screw over everyone else.

    Ultimately if you're just buying on hope that prices go up forever and don't have any risk management to plan for falls/drops in prices etc. that's on you.

    • tharlow on 08/02/2024 - 09:14
      +3

      People forget that houses are an investment

      Housing is both a human right and a profitable asset, and that’s the problem

      • Grunntt on 08/02/2024 - 14:12
        +2

        Any chance you could point me to anywhere that clearly and comprehensively defines housing as human right?
        I know it's an attractive phrase to drop into these sort of discussions but it is more an opinion than a statement of fact.

        eg your link goes to an article on The Conversation stating it as though it's a fact - they then link to a CBC news article about Canadian Prime Minister which states

        As part of its ambitious national housing strategy, the Liberal government is vowing to enshrine the right to adequate housing as a fundamental human right in Canadian law, a symbolic move that has practical considerations.

        • Eeples on 08/02/2024 - 23:18
          +2

          Yes it’s ICESCR, article 11.

          Australia has ratified this agreement.

          Article 11

          1. The States Parties to the present Covenant recognize the right of everyone to an adequate standard of living for himself and his family, including adequate food, clothing and housing, and to the continuous improvement of living conditions. The States Parties will take appropriate steps to ensure the realization of this right, recognizing to this effect the essential importance of international co-operation based on free consent.
          • Grunntt on 10/02/2024 - 22:50

            @Eeples: The problem is that, even though it has been ratified Australia has not embedded these into our domestic law, despite our international commitments.
            So, in practice, it's not seen as that by the government.

            Ratification of many international agreements is very often a box ticking exercise for economic practicality rather than what it is hoped to be when written. So, saying it's a human right, does pretty much nothing in practice.

            (I always find it interesting when someone makes an assertion here that they rarely supply an answer to a follow up question for more information. More often than not the follow up answer is from a third party - not criticising the person answering, but wondering why the first person does not back up their assertion)

            • Eeples on 10/02/2024 - 23:25
              -1

              @Grunntt: Question:

              Any chance you could point me to anywhere that clearly and comprehensively defines housing as human right?

              Answer:

              Yes it’s ICESCR, article 11.

              Clearly and comprehensively defined. You're welcome.

              So, saying it's a human right, does pretty much nothing in practice.

              It is a human right. (ICESCR, article 11).

      • Gareth on 08/02/2024 - 18:22
        +1

        This is Australia mate, you have no rights other than the content of the constitution - which is pretty quiet on individual rights.

        Sorry, Amendments 1, 5 and 14 don't apply either, no matter how much you watch US TV shows.

      • Ugly on 09/02/2024 - 06:40
        +1

        This.
        “Housing is an investment” is the exact problem.
        It shouldn’t be.

  • DelhiBelly on 08/02/2024 - 08:36
    +1

    House oversupply No, Apartments Yes. NSW govt wanting to build NY style 34 new High Rise buildings in Castle Hill. >4000 New Apartments being built in Macquarie Park. Eight Metro and Train stations prioritised for High Rise High Density residential buildings in Sydney.

    Immigration cap being brought back to Pre-Covid levels, specifically for International Students and Short term temp visas. Expect bank LVR dropping to 70% or 60% for Apartment Investors in next 2-3 years. Most of them will be either Defective due to rushed construction or Ghost floors due to oversupply.

  • Mugsy on 08/02/2024 - 09:20
    +1

    Property prices are not going to drop even if supply ramps up. The demand is too high compared to what supply can realistically meet.

    If anything, the prices can do with stabilising right now… even for investors. Those interest rates will continue being high otherwise and repayments will continue to be much higher than rents.

  • SlickMick on 08/02/2024 - 10:18
    +1

    I'd be keen to get a few more properties if prices dropped substantially. I don't think it's the solution you think it is.

  • floorpie on 08/02/2024 - 10:40

    Honestly I'm much more worried about younger generations getting stuck renting forever

  • JimB on 08/02/2024 - 10:42

    I have a house and a few rentals.

    I doubt it will happen but it won't bother me too much. It will be much better for Australia. People who currently rent and my kids will be able to buy a house.

    Also, I may be able to upgrade to a new house.

  • Danger on 08/02/2024 - 11:02

    Yeah, nah..With builders being busted left, right and centre, who's going to build all new houses

    • Ghost47 on 08/02/2024 - 21:23

      Government: "Easy, we'll just import more people to do that."

      • smartazz104 on 08/02/2024 - 22:37

        If only, they’re more interested in propping up our universities with an endless supply of students as well as bringing in cheap labour.

  • Herbse on 08/02/2024 - 11:15
    +1

    Developers purposely hold onto land and only release 10 blocks at a time to artificially keep prices high and continue to grow by adding on an extra $10k for each new block release.

    Nothing can be done to force land to be released any earlier than the owners want to do themselves.

    Unless the government decides to buy thousands of acres of land all around the country and release them to be built at once. We won't be seeing any large land releases.

    • smartazz104 on 08/02/2024 - 22:37
      +1

      Ah the De Beers method.

  • Alexxx on 08/02/2024 - 11:33

    People who bought recently would have the most to lose as they might end up with a loan that is higher than the value of their property.
    I can't see that many investors being worried about it if they have built up a portfolio it will just offset the gains from their other properties.

  • drfuzzy on 08/02/2024 - 11:45

    Housing supply isn't increasing until the cost of construction drops or the end value of homes increases.

    I see no evidence of construction costs decreasing, instead builders and tradies are wanting higher and higher prices.

  • drfuzzy on 08/02/2024 - 11:46
    +2

    I'm currently staying in Hong Kong.

    Australian housing market is really affordable and value driven comparative to here.

    We have it pretty good compared to some parts of the world

  • richrichie on 08/02/2024 - 11:51

    Doubt we will see oversupply anytime soon, as long as the Australian dream is still to own a house with a backyard. Might happen sooner if people are starting to accept apartment living more (+ having these apartments built properly). You need these high density buildings to increase supplies quickly, but not so easy to achieve when people want houses.

    And most investors that I know generally prefer mid-range properties that should be less prone to huge price corrections. So I doubt they will be scared. If anything, lower house prices mean some might be able to afford to increase their portfolio.

    • AustriaBargain on 08/02/2024 - 11:57

      I think young people are fine with apartments, like Jerry Seinfeld size apartments would suit millions of us just fine. Tiny units where you can't swing a cat, not so much. Frasier Crane style massive luxury apartments would suit a lot of people too if they could afford it. A lot of people don't even want a garden, it's a pain to deal with, have to mow and weed it.

      • Drpepper666 on 08/02/2024 - 12:55
        -1

        Beggars can't be choosers. Wahhh I can't afford a house but I will only settle for million dollar penthouse apartments. Yawn go back to your avo and toast.

        • AustriaBargain on 08/02/2024 - 12:59

          If renters are reduced to beggars then maybe it really is time for the Greens to get more voters and change the housing system to favour the people who actually live in them, rather than maintaining the housing bubble.

          • Drpepper666 on 08/02/2024 - 13:38
            -1

            @AustriaBargain: It's not a bubble

          • richrichie on 08/02/2024 - 13:39

            @AustriaBargain: Curious to know how changing government can magically address this, but could also be because I don't follow much politics.

            Issues with the current rental crisis is mostly due to supplies. Raw materials are so expensive now, interest rates are so high, and tradies are charging significantly more than pre-covid. So, the base cost of building a new house / building is already at this very high price, so doubt the overall housing price will go down much, if any.

            I'd even say, if we want to address this short term, we need more investors pouring their capitals (whether domestic / international funds) into building more apartments / houses. Rent will still be expensive, sure, but at least we won't all fight for the scarce number of property available to rent.

      • richrichie on 08/02/2024 - 13:28

        I don't know what Jerry Seinfled size apartments mean. How to quantify them in terms of m2?
        I'd think for one bedroom apartment, minimum should be 50m2, and 80m2 for 2 bedrooms apartment. Anything above that is a bonus luxury, but unfortunately won't help with increasing supplies quickly.

        You are right though, many people now dont want a garden because maintenance is too time consuming and expensive. But does not stop people wanting a house with a low maintenance backyard, like artificial grass for example.

  • dontboopthesnoot on 08/02/2024 - 11:59

    Are you scared? You should be, you’re on Scare Tactics

  • mroarsome on 08/02/2024 - 12:22
    +1

    Having worked in the residential building industry and built my own house I can assure you there is zero chance supply will out weigh demand! We can simply not build quick enough. It takes approx 5-6 months to build a single storey dwelling, and 9-24 months to build a double storey house and approx 20-60 ppl involved to get the job done.

  • bomberswarm2 on 08/02/2024 - 12:34
    -2

    Who cares about investors? We need a 3 year rent freeze, combined with a 10,000% increase in land tax for investment properties. Instantly forcing every investment property owner to sell, flooding the market and crashing prices.

    • Jaduqimon on 08/02/2024 - 12:50
      +1

      better solution is to get the government to just take it off them by force and redistribute it. oh wait….

    • Drpepper666 on 08/02/2024 - 12:56
      -1

      Sweet then I can pick up a few more investment properties and negative gear them

      • AustriaBargain on 08/02/2024 - 13:31

        You gotta assume if greens held power one day that negative gearing would be the first thing they’d kill. The ALP would kill it even sooner to help slow down the advance of the greens actually.

        • Drpepper666 on 08/02/2024 - 13:39

          Greens hold power - LOL

  • dmcneice on 08/02/2024 - 13:17

    Thing is, historically the price of housing in this country has gone up disproportionately due to the value of the land, rather than the cost of the build.

    Right now however (basically since COVID), the floor of house prices has risen astronomically. Even if we do manage to have housing supply outstrip demand (and thats a big if), how low can they really go, when the cost to build a house is already ridiculous. When I last checked a basic build was 350k minimum now

    • Grunntt on 08/02/2024 - 14:29

      when the cost to build a house is already ridiculous. When I last checked a basic build was 350k minimum now

      Not too long ago I was thinking of having a new house built by one of the major well-known building companies.
      Went a fair way through the process before deciding to leave it a bit longer - so had all of the pricing etc mostly finalised.

      Less than 12 months later I went back to them to have it requoted and the cost had risen by about 30% - the reason given was increased costs.

      I am related to someone who works there (which did not have any impact on the pricing both times unfortunately) and, at the meeting that they attended about pricing, it was decided that as the price of existing homes has gone up dramatically they would do the same. Less than 10% increase in costs resulted in 30% increase in price.

      Yeah costs have increased but a huge part of the price increases are inflicted 'just because they can'.

      • dmcneice on 08/02/2024 - 14:40

        No doubt material prices havent risen nearly as much as the cost to build a house has. I was considering building a granny flat on our property for my sister and her hubby and daughter (2 bedroom, really small). Quotes were around 250k-300k (start of last year).

        Gonna be hard to wind back the costs now though

  • MindGrenadius on 08/02/2024 - 13:48
    +2

    You need to realise this isn't going to happen. They will just adjust the demand (immigration and low rates) accordingly to continue the momentum because the entire house of cards falls apart when housing does.

    The people calling for the big housing crash in Australia for the last 10-20 years have all been correct because the fundamentals are woefully brokent, but all underestimated exactly how deep the Housing Religion of Australian Properdee goes. They will keep this thing going at great expense of the Australian people until the entire system breaks (likely a banking/currency crisis) as a result

    • AustriaBargain on 08/02/2024 - 13:51
      +1

      How does the trillions of extra on paper wealth from existing properties benefit the country at all though. It doesn't add to the economy. If the houses were worth 1/5th as much they would still be rented out and maintained so it doesn't even add money to tradies or anything. If the same money were invested in Australian companies, then I'd understand how that contributes to the country. But existing houses that would still exist just the same with or without the housing bubble, what good does that do anyone? If the bubble popped and say a million investors were bankrupt, then so what, they will get real jobs and earn for themselves, or they will get the pension if they are old.

      • MindGrenadius on 08/02/2024 - 14:14
        +2

        It doesn't. That's the sad punchline to this whole thing. This idea you can use shelter as a lucrative "up only" investment vehicle benefits a small subset of people. Taken to it's logical conclusion it eventually pushes everyone out as earning power/income/wages becomes wholly disconnected from property values and it becomes unattainable, which is already happening. You almost need to be in the top 5-10% of incomes to not be considered under rental/mortgage stress. It's totally unfeasible in the longterm as there always needs to be a bottom 90% of incomes in an economy as well.

        It doesn't add much to the economy, but the problem is that it's all a house of cards that is built on the premise that houses are worth what they are. People laughed at how silly the collapse of FTX was but it's extremely similar to Australia's housing market. Property prices go up, this prompts people to just get more debt on the back of those paper property gains as collateral and that extra demand further inflates the property bubble, letting people borrow even more for their next and so on

  • kwv42 on 08/02/2024 - 14:16
    -1

    So putting money into a Housing Investment Fund, rather than putting the money directly into housing construction is increasing housing supply?

    Tell them they are dreaming!!!

    • xavster on 10/02/2024 - 10:20
      +1

      Actually it's very clever. The HAFF is not a direct building fund, it's an investment fund that invests in others to build.

      10B to directly build houses = x number of houses.
      10B to securitise and allow others to invest = 100x number of houses.

      By guaranteeing a non-profit's ability to borrow, that non-profit can build a lot more houses using its own resources.

      This is the same with banking, if you had to build a house with only your own money, it would take you 30 years to save up and then build.

      By using leverage from a bank, you can build a house with a little bit of your own money. and do it NOW.

      • kwv42 on 12/02/2024 - 09:52

        So it is not like The Government putting money into the share market and hope they can increase their money to build houses that is needed now not in the future?

        And claims of 30,000 houses across Australia is incorrect and more like 100,000 even those a lot more than 100,000 is needed?

  • thesilverstarman on 08/02/2024 - 14:21
    +2

    Australia was one of the only nations that didn't have a property price correction. At the time it was said to be because of negative gearing policies that keep prices artificially high. Increased supply could have an effect, but we are more likely to see price drops due to the removal of these policies or increased interest rates.
    Negative gearing benefits the wealthy. Yes, I know that small investors are included, but it's not the poor who are benefiting. Anyone who can afford to buy an investment property is doing better than the majority of Australians. So could this be removed? Yes. If people speak up enough, or if it puts pressure on the budget. I would never take it for granted. If your investment doesn't make sense without it, then you need to look at your investments.
    Interest rates are not high. They are just higher than they have been in recent years. In my life, interest rates of around 6 to 9% were always normal. If you couldn't afford payments in this range, then you couldn't afford to borrow money. We also had to save a 20% deposit. We even saw rates as high as 18%. Very few people under 30 could buy a home for this reason. Interest rates collapsed around COVID-19, and money has been easy to get. One thing that always happens is that financial situations always come around again. Interest rates will go back to what they were. And there will be a flood of properties on the market, which will cause a fall in values. I can't tell you when, but it will happen.
    The best advice is to expect the best but plan for the worst. If you can handle interest rates of 9% and you have sufficient equity in your property, you will be fine. If you can't, its time to make changes. Reduce your expenses, maybe downsize your home etc.

  • samfisher5986 on 08/02/2024 - 14:36

    All investors that have built in regional areas or have invested in apartments/townhouses have risk as supply can reduce the value of their investments.

    Anyone who has a house in a city will never see a value reduction because new houses are not being built and when they occasionally are built, they are tiny squashed houses similar to townhouses.

  • MrFunSocks on 08/02/2024 - 15:03

    The entire australian economy would die if that were to happen. House prices aren't going down significantly - ever. Just like petrol will never be $0.80c/L again, and a Happy Meal will never be $2.95 again.

    • AustriaBargain on 08/02/2024 - 15:59
      +1

      The entire economy would die if some people lose money on a gamble they made?

  • 2esc on 08/02/2024 - 15:57
    +1

    Not worried but our infrastructure is not keeping up.

  • Jaduqimon on 08/02/2024 - 16:02

    House price still cheap. That's why people still lining up to buy.

  • DiscoJango on 08/02/2024 - 18:13
    -3

    Certain countries with populations over the 1 billion mark need to be nuked to reduce over population to sustainable levels and stop the stupid level of migration we are having.

    • Jaduqimon on 08/02/2024 - 18:19
      +2

      those countries with over 1 billion population are the ones with nukes. We unfortunately do not have nukes.

    • AustriaBargain on 08/02/2024 - 19:12
      +1

      That's a novel solution to the housing bubble, to start WWIII…

    • FlyingMiffy on 08/02/2024 - 20:47
      -3

      Those countries house that billion in land masses that arent that different to Aus. Most come to Aus for different reasons that have nothing to do to being crowded. The problem is something else. The "migration" that you like to bash contributes to the 3rd/4th largest export industry in the country and was not the trigger for the biggest rise in property pricing in the years since 2019 (Melb was 35% in the 3 years between 2019 and 2021). There were no migrants when we had COVID, it was fellow Aussies buying property off each other.

      • Bluto Mindpretzel on 09/02/2024 - 09:21

        You are conveniently ignoring the rent price falls and vacancy rate rises during COVID. The house price increases during that time was the result of massive stimulus and fear the public had about having a stable dwelling to bunker down into, and nothing else.

        https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/an-abominable-situation…

        "Only two suburbs had rents below what they were five years ago, indicating COVID-19 price falls had been reversed. And 89 suburbs recorded double-digit apartment rent rises over the past year."

        The current situation is directly correlated with the surge in immigration. The numbers don't lie.

    • Ghost47 on 08/02/2024 - 21:28

      Insert Chris Pratt gif here

  • R4 on 08/02/2024 - 19:06
    +2

    The only way that would happen is if migration is massively cut. It should be but it won't. Both sides of politics are captured unfortunately.

    • FlyingMiffy on 08/02/2024 - 20:48
      +1

      More migration bashing. So… what happened to house prices when migration stopped between 2019 and 2021?

      • Ghost47 on 08/02/2024 - 21:49
        +3

        When people say they are against migration these days, they usually mean the rampant, mass migration we've been seeing more of lately. The kind of migration where we import 1.5x the size of Canberra in a year or where when you step outside you hear accents that are from all over the world except your own or where driving to the shops used to take 20 minutes five years ago but now it takes 30 minutes or where when you go to the grocery shop after work, most of the produce is sold out when five years ago there would be stock.

        Our population has grown by one million people the past 18 months and we are way ahead of forecasts (it was forecasted we'd hit 25m people in 2042). Cutting immigration gives us a better chance to grow in a more sustainable manner, there is nothing wrong with that, in fact it's much more prudent and smarter to cut back than to allow a million people into the country and then wonder "Oh crap, our roads are deteriorating a lot faster now due to climate change and a lot more cars on the road, how do we fix it all????"

        We've already been seeing more climate change issues the past few years, e.g. roads and trains being taken out regionally affecting the supply of food to major cities, how do you expect us to feed a whole bunch of new migrant mouths if that keeps happening? Calling for more migration or the same level of migration we've been seeing the past 10-15 years is just asking for disaster. There's a reason why on planes they tell you to put the oxygen mask on your own face first before helping other people.

        • FlyingMiffy on 08/02/2024 - 22:47
          -1

          So what happened to property prices between 2019 and 2021? Let me answer it for you. It went up - by record numbers. So migration is not the core reason prices have gone up which is the actual argument.

          Migration is a way to maintain the economy and to sustain economic competitiveness. When a country imports, the price of goods is influenced by volumes and your buying power. In a country with revenue returns primarily from income tax, that buying power is a proportion of the size of the population. This and many other critical reasons is why migration is a must. So if thats a must and yet the populace is feeling pressure from the increase in people, the answer is not to reduce… but to actually solve the root cause. And that root cause is an inability to plan and execute on urban planning at almost every level of government in this country. Blame that.

          • R4 on 09/02/2024 - 00:13
            +2

            @FlyingMiffy: Of course we need migration but not at the level it currently is. Also it needs to be highly skilled migration only - not the student, family reunion, 7 Eleven worker mess we have now.

          • B-Moose on 10/02/2024 - 08:30
            +2

            @FlyingMiffy: 2021: 0% interest rates and free money for the first time in human history might have something to do with it.

            Australia's mass immigration policy is the highest in the developed world. It isn't possible to keep up with that without ruining living standards, as is currently very obvious. You sound like a politician with the 'urban planning' talking points.

      • R4 on 09/02/2024 - 00:08
        +3

        Migration since the end of the Covid overreaction has been supercharged and we have record numbers of people coming into an economy that is already under severe housing stress. It is unsustainable. So if you think that viewpoint is 'migration bashing' so be it.

        • Bluto Mindpretzel on 09/02/2024 - 09:24
          +3

          It's just more of the usual "you question immigration? you must be racist" nonsense!.

  • Thaal Sinestro on 08/02/2024 - 19:15
    +2

    1. AustriaBargain - you're right, lots of people (the majority?) want houses to keep appreciating by 10% per year. They are the enemy, the top end of town.

    2. Immigration is so high it is impossible to build a surplus of houses. We need to drop permanent immigration to also zero (only allow temporary students and guest workers with limited stays). The only exception I would allow is for GPs; we will have a massive shortage of them soon (only 15% of graduates are pursuing General Practice).

    3. The only first world country where housing prices have decreased in the 21st century is Japan; Japan has zero immigration and a very low birth rate. As their population declines, housing gets progressively cheaper.

    I don't want Australia to become like Honkers, Sao Paulo or Cairo, with high-rises everywhere. Detacted houses are what most people wish to live in. To build massive amounts of housing for a rapidly increasing population, we would need to knock down all the detached houses and low rise apartments and townhouses, and replace them with skyscrapers. The neo-liberal obsession with economic growth/GDP is ruining this country.

    • FlyingMiffy on 08/02/2024 - 20:49

      Living in a detached house is not an entitlement. Never was and never will be.

    • Ghost47 on 08/02/2024 - 22:05
      +1

      The neo-liberal obsession with economic growth/GDP is ruining this country.

      I would say it's more about economic growth in the cheapest way possible that's ruining the country. Importing 20-30 year olds means that they are productive right off the bat and they cost less over their lifetime because they weren't born here. By inflating the labour market through immigration it keeps the power in the employer's hands and keeps wages surpressed.

      And it's all so stupidly short-sighted, just wait until our 20-40 year old locals and immigrants start to age, the ageing population will become completely unbalanced, as if baby boomers had four kids per couple instead of two. By then all the current politicians will be dead and millennials and gen z are going to have to fix the mess left by them by either doing nothing (therefore people needing aged care will suffer due to the lack of labour supply) or import more people (which again will just cause more issues down the line). It's just been totally reckless and stupid.

      • B-Moose on 10/02/2024 - 08:27
        +2

        Exactly, mass immigration is an unsustainable Ponzi scheme. Also ruins the environment.

        • Ghost47 on 10/02/2024 - 16:48

          Yep, like our roads. In recent years in Sydney and Melbourne potholes have appeared all over the roads, part of it is due to weather but the other obvious part is because of how many more cars there are on the roads adding to wear and tear (more people = more cars).

          Our population was forecasted to hit 27m in 2050 or something, we are way ahead of schedule.

  • echelon6 on 08/02/2024 - 20:41

    scared as in… of course I wouldn't be happy to lose money

    would it happen though? I only ever buy house with land and nobody is printing any land, not in the middle anyway. So I'm not 'scared' because I can't see it happening.

  • Toph Beifong on 08/02/2024 - 20:45

    Considering how inflated it has become over the past 4 years, any drastic oversupply of housing would only serve as a correction. Property would still be unaffordable to many Australians.

  • zathras on 08/02/2024 - 21:27

    Housing demand is rising faster than supply. It will not be quick or easy to turn that imbalance around the other way. Unless you expect the RBA is going to send interest rates back to 16% and cause a major recession/depression. I'm confident that scenario likely won't happen.

  • scooba on 08/02/2024 - 23:11

    They can increase the housing supply all they want but we all know endless greed will gobble up what's supposed to be there for young families who can't afford it to begin with.

    When you give an inch, will they take a mile….of course they will, at any cost.

    • AustriaBargain on 08/02/2024 - 23:12

      Investors can’t collude to buy them all up and agree to keep rents inflated. Investors are too self serving, they would immediately undercut each other so they aren’t the ones losing out on rent by having it empty.

      • scooba on 08/02/2024 - 23:21

        I wasn't talking about investors, I was talking about people who buy several properties and stick grandma and grandpa in one, aunty and uncle in another, nephew and niece in another, son and daughter in another, mum and dad in another and so on.

        There are loopholes y'know, it's like Swiss cheese out there.

        • webtonmoy on 09/02/2024 - 23:07

          Wish I had such generous relatives and live rent/mortgage free!!

          • scooba on 09/02/2024 - 23:09

            @webtonmoy: Yep, same here.

            Some families are good at Ponzi schemes.

  • Lunarboogie on 09/02/2024 - 02:25
    +1

    If there was a price correction (and there's buckleys chance of that happening), the biggest impact would be to the bank of mum and dad.

    What would boomers have left in their coddled snd preeneed lives?

  • Willy Beamish on 09/02/2024 - 07:26

    People that have just wanting to keep other people down that don't

  • jason101 on 09/02/2024 - 08:00

    The planning system in Australia is so broken there can never be a substantive increase in housing stock in desirable areas. Without wholesale change to planning laws, there will never be sufficient housing stock available in Australia to meet immigration demand which drives scarcity and keeps prices rising.

    So much talk about rent capping, changes to negative gearing, the wickedness of investors, too great a tax break for the "rich" who earn over $150k etc etc, its all about the quantum of supply in Australia and this doesn't even come up on the radar for Labor, Greens etc.

    In the next economic downturn when Australia needs a boost, the government should just rezone swaths of crown land with masterplan approvals in place for medium/high housing density and let the developers go crazy - It will pull Australia out of the next economic downturn and fix the housing crisis….but it wont happen. Liberals generally like to keep the rich rich, and Labor/Greens generally like to blame the rich for the problems of the poor.

  • Trying2SaveABuck on 09/02/2024 - 09:42
    -1

    Im not scared of it, it creates a fantastic investing opportunity

  • johnfuller on 09/02/2024 - 09:46

    housing supply increases, investors buy more, they rent them out, housing prices remain the same ?

  • surg3on on 09/02/2024 - 10:25

    Own most of my home. Dont really care if value goes down as the one I move to will also have a lower value. Additionally the cost of stamp duty and Real Estate agents will have dropped too.

  • SlartiBartFozz on 09/02/2024 - 13:49

    The tax, investment, regulation and building supply chain is predicated on that never happening - it will also balance whatever occurs to halt or slow that change.
    That's further underpinned by the cost of constructing dwellings, which is increasingly unaffordable - even of al the house blocks were given for free, we will eventually get to the same point where demand exceeds supply and drives up prices to unaffordable levels. A drop in demand does not have the opposite effect however, building contractors and trades will quickly divest their residential business and pivot to other industries, while the market (driven by agents, brokers, investors, developers, etc) keeps prices artificially inflated into perpetuity. You can look to Europe post-GFC or provincial Japan, and see what would happen if you have oversupply even for a few years, the market keeps prices pumped, and unsold buildings are demolished or fall into ruin.

    It will take a major calamity to change this dynamic - perhaps a war like that which devastated Ukrainian housing and infrastructure, a solar storm/asteroid or alien invasion - but perhaps our alien overlords 👽 will give all us homosapien cattle free housing anyway 😁

  • TiredKitty78 on 09/02/2024 - 14:51

    people with investment properties

    You lost me.
    You being sad that you might not make easy money of a NEED of the populace, tells me that you're happy exploiting the needs of the populace. You are not a hero, you are not some normy pleb either.
    Suck it up butter cup. Most people would be happy just having a house paid off and life so much easier.
    You're potentially sad that you can't get blood from a stone and will not have other people paying your bills via the rent they pay you?

    You're literally asking 'Any other people afraid that if everyone has homes available to them - to the possible point of excess since we always have a need for homes sooner or later - that they'll have so much choice that it'll be a 'renters market', and we'll have to incentivize with things like lower rents, because whoever is cheapest/best area/other with be rented out because they are desperate for the income, instead of people desperate for housing. Shucks. It's a hard hard life.'

  • bargain huntress on 09/02/2024 - 14:53

    If you live in your forever home it doesnt matter

    • Jaduqimon on 09/02/2024 - 14:57

      It does matter if you haven't paid it off yet.
      If values drop it will affect your ability to refinance if the LVR increases above to a certain point and can potentially be stuck with a loan that has bad rates.

      • AustriaBargain on 09/02/2024 - 15:55

        Why would rates be bad if the housing crisis was properly solved?

        • Jaduqimon on 09/02/2024 - 16:32

          Because rates differ between banks and usually you would refinance to get the best rate. But if your LVR is too high that restrict your ability to change

  • isthisreallife22 on 09/02/2024 - 15:15

    I think the people to feel sorry for would be those who have bought their PPOR in the past 4 years

  • Ononono on 09/02/2024 - 15:49

    Everything in this country, from tax laws to immigration policies, is geared towards increasing property prices - and the majority of money and people in this country have strong incentives in continuing the status quo. Prices for housing are never going to go down in your or your children's lifetime. The sooner people accept this hard truth the better they'll be off because the path to accumulating wealth becomes clear and simple afterwards. The real suckers and those that got left behind - the ones that tried to be contrarian and make a moral stance by refusing to join in the rigged game. Don't fight against the system, buy as much property as you can as soon as you can.

    • Jaduqimon on 09/02/2024 - 16:36

      That's right. The cold hard truth. Couldn't agree more

  • jaimex2 on 09/02/2024 - 17:17
    +2

    Not scared at all, you need to understand some thing about Australia.

    • Investing in housing is something people do to bring their tax rates down and get out of the 45c to the dollar brackets
    • Albanese is about to make people who otherwise might not have, double down on the above
    • You need construction companies to build houses, they all got wiped out thanks to government over-reach
    • You need funds to build houses, high interest rates and high material costs make it a high hurdle. It's not worth building right now.
    • There is nothing anyone can do to fix housing quickly, that ship sailed 2 - 3 elections ago. It'll take a decade to turn the ship around.
    • 1000 people move to Australia a day currently. I don't think we'll ever complete dwellings at a pace that matches that.
  • duluxe2000 on 09/02/2024 - 21:48

    Pls note that noone wants houses to be cheap (even future homeowners - who want to buy a home n see its value goes down day by day?) but everyone wants houses to be affordable. Notice the difference.

    To make house affordable, yes, building more houses is just one factor, others including credits, incomes, locations, etc..

    Just building more houses without considering other factors is just pure stupid, oversupply will leads to another extreme (collapse of the house market ), see China for example . That's why those politicians keep saying "building more houses" to please people but they are smart enough not to do it blindly (excepts for Greens, I think they don't care whatever the consequences their policies are).

  • webtonmoy on 09/02/2024 - 23:14

    I asked this question in one of the forum posts a long time ago. Time to ask it again.

    Consider the house prices coming down, say 30% from the current price. You now buy your house with a 20% deposit. Are you happy or scared about the prospect that housing prices continue to fall for the next many years?

    I understood from my own experience that everyone wants the price to fall, till they buy their house. And then they hope it will only go up…

    In a country where the majority of the people own (with or without a mortgage) a house, no wonder we support policies that keep pushing the price up… and up…

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