I put in $60k in ETFs 17 months ago. I’ve seen a return of 31.7% as of today (i.e. +$19k). Do I just leave it? It is tempting to withdraw…
Should I Withdraw My ETFs?
mendyl on 11/03/2024 - 18:49
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Probably chuck it in my offset account (there's currently $50k less than the loan amount) - interest rate 5.94% atm, so still less than the ETF return rate
It’s completely up to you - unless you have other higher interest debt that’s better to pay off, you can basically do what you like.
Personally, I love the idea of not having a mortgage one day - so I would fully offset my mortgage, leave the rest in there, pouring what would have been my mortgage repayments back in until I come back to an amount I’m comfortable with.
You may loose, you may gain - all depending on how likely a recession is - but at least you’d owe nothing on the roof over your head
No mortgage = immune to all the recent interests increases ( which means you feel the CPI than other people )
@cameldownunder: @cameldownunder Agree 💯. Seems like some people have been “educated” by the bank’s marketing teams to think debt is always a good thing.
Investment debt = tax deductible. It can be a good thing.
Ppor debt = income and lifestyle risk
What are you going to do with your money once the house is paid off? If you plan on investing in ETFs you may as well just leave the ones you have alone and save on capital gains tax.
I can tell you that having a paid off house is pretty sweet, but it really kills your work ethic and tolerance for annoying people at work (particularly useless management flogs that are trying to climb the ladder).
Tbh, I plan on only working in a job I like, when I need to do it - having the freedom to leave a workplace or job full of management flogs 😂
@amsaini15: No idea @amsaini15 - will let you know when I get there
Genuinely surprised the idea of targeting “debt free” on your ppor was negged. Seems like I triggered some stuck in the debt cycle.
just happens OP has $60k of capita losses to offset
You need to subtract the CGT you'll pay if you withdraw, then decide whether you reckon net future returns > 5.94%pa
Need to take into account that loan offset is a bit like tax free interest earnings. Changes the figures a bit.
still less than the ETF return rate
are your ETFs earning more than 7.722%?
Nothing goes up/down forever. Noone ever get poorer by taking some profit.
Your offset account is tax free and (nearly) risk free. Its quite incomparable to an ETF where you can technically lose the entire balance.
Good question
But its OPs choice really.Nobody here has a crystral ball or knows OPs financial circumstances nor is anyone qualified to advise OP on thier financial affairs.
What ETFs?
Early Termination Fee
electronic transfer funds
Automatic Teller Machine Machine
Escape The Fate
or Fart
Extra Terrestrial Funds
Elmer the Fudd
Elmo The Frog.
VDHG
Sure
they will moon as soon as you sell, so let me know if you do so i can buy them off you
Otherwise if you don't, recession gets locked in for next qtr and your gains will be wiped off.
Pleased to meet you fellow ASX investor!
if you withdraw there are capital gains tax implications, completely up to you want to do tho
Around $4k, assuming OP earns as much as the rest of us.
To avoid tax, you’d virtually have to never cash out. What’s the point of that?
Paying tax means you’re earning money. What’s the big deal
If it's a dividend paying etf your are getting a yield on the full pre tax amount rather than if you sold, realised a capital gain and then invested the now post tax amount.
You have to pay extra tax on the dividend unless you are one of those low wage earners on less than $180k
@Tleyx: yeah but what his saying is, you can get more dividend with the unsold etf, since if u sold and buy another etf, the dividend would be lower, if yields the same, since the amount of etf is less since u payed CG tax from selling 1st etf
To avoid tax, you’d virtually have to never cash out. What’s the point of that?
The idea of a long-term investment like an ETF is you would sell it when you're closer to, or during retirement, when your income is lower. If your only income comes from capital gains you can pay near 0 tax on the earnings, depending on how much you sell and how much you earn in total that financial year.
That’s true. Retirement hasn’t crossed my mind just quite yet. Proves that decision for OP is based on their own personal goals
Great return, care to share who/what you invested with?
Approx 20% per year. VGS is up 24% in the past 12 months so it's nothing special considering the good run stocks have been on recently.
Plenty of ETF's have gotten around that in the last 12 months. A couple for you:
Betashares Nasdaq 100 ETF (NDQ) 55.53%
Ishares S&P 500 ETF (IVV) 34.61%
Vanguard MSCI INDEX International Shares ETF (VGS) 30.10%
Betashares India Quality ETF (IIND) 29.9%
Vaneck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) 28.23%
vgs
Oh damn!
should I leave it
Stonks only go up
(Or so the legends say)
Tell that to my lithium shares cries
i'm down 120k on cxo if that helps
And last month Japan finally got back to the 1989 peak, back when Japan was about to dominate the world economically.
Very hard to get market timing correct, and if you get it wrong, you could hurt for 35 years!
Mind you, I'd be tempted to lock in 30% gains.
Why lock in 30% gains and not 5000% in 30 years
Ask a 80 year old.
If the price of bread will drop 80% at Xmas it is no help to a person starving today, and paying off the house might be more important to the OP than a possibility of further large gains on the future.
this is exactly whats stopping me from cashin out
You should not be trying to time the market as yes it is very hard to time it correctly without a magic eightball. spreading your investment continuously over time is the safer option that should yield solid gains.
Big problem with locking in the gains in the sharemarket is you get hit with CGT so you have less to invest post cash out.
They do, you just have to make sure you don't die waiting.
Up or on sale
photo or it didn't happened
We are only here for loss porn
Timing the market… know anyone who has won?
Sure, they are this year's hot fund manager.
The trick is doing it sustainably.anyone who has won
I like to think uncle rekt made it
I just got back from korea
Welcome home.
"Timing the market… know anyone who has won?"
YES!
This guy is 100% successful at timing the market …Exposes the LIE that "you can't time the market"
If you follow his daily show, you can time the markets as well.
I've been following him for a couple of years now and he's called the tops and bottoms with 100% accuracy.
He often derides those that push the LIE.
Lol.
"Lol"
Look mum, here's another one fallen for the LIE.
@Gekov: In Australia we have welfare and the age pension to support people who invest all their money with experts who 100% successfully time the market.
Ask yourself why this guy is a Fox news nobody instead of Warren Buffett if he is as good as he claims?
@mskeggs: "experts who 100% successfully time the market"
FYI: This guy has PROVEN HIMSELF TO ME coz I've been following his advice.
He prides himself in being totally out of bear markets as over the last couple of years.
He called a NEW BULL MARKET JUST AS IT WAS EMERGING ABOUT NOVEMBER LAST YEAR.
Please don't compare him to all the wannabe failed prophets.
HE DOESN"T FORECAST but has convincingly shown that simple analysis of CURRENT trend and market mood tell you all you need to know in timing the market successfully.
Why don't you try following him and try to prove me wrong?
ALSO, HIS ADVICE IS FREE, UNLIKE WANNABES WHO WANT TO CHARGE EXORBITANT FEES FOR FAILED FORECASTS.
@Gekov: Okay, this is no longer sounding like sarcasm.
Since you would obviously by now have more money that you know what to do with, why are you wasting your time preaching at us?
@SlickMick: "why are you wasting your time preaching at us"
HUH?
NO PREACHING FROM ME BABY … just look at the PROVEN HISTORY at the following web site.
Just look at GaryK's historical record WHICH IS FREELY AVAILABLE HERE …
https://garykaltbaum.com/"we know what tops look like" is one, inter alia, memorable statement on his 8th Nov 2023 show. HAVE A LISTEN.
He really gets stuck into the "you can't time the market" crowd, who love to charge exorbitant fees for failed advice.
Have a listen baby!
@mskeggs: "Ask yourself why this guy is a Fox news nobody instead of Warren Buffett"
Buffet is a totally different animal.
He's into FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS which means he seeks out undervalued stocks even in bear markets.
Gary K, on the other hand, monitors overall market health before investing, which keeps him out of bear markets, as it did during the recent bear over the last two years.
@mskeggs: FYI:
Go back to his FREELY AVAILABLE HISTORICAL daily shows around the 3rd of November 2023 and he's already hinting at a new bull market.
On the 8th November 2023 he RIDICULES THOSE WHO PARROT THE "YOU CAN'T TIME THE MARKET" NONSENSE.
Go ahead have a look ,,,
https://garykaltbaum.com/@Gekov: I have looked before, for someone with paid books and entertainment segments and a supposedly long history of success he only has a networth of $15m, while nothing to be scoffed at this does not inspire confidence of being a stock guru. seems to be no better or worse than the rest of them.
@gromit: "seems to be no better or worse than the rest of them"
I strongly disagree.
I don't know anyone else offering such USEFUL stock market commentary for free.
Do you?
Everyone else I've seen, gives only highly restricted USELESS info, unless you pay a huge fee.His historical record, for the time I've been following him (about 2yrs) when tipping market tops and bottoms, both short and long term, in both bull & bear markets, is HIGHLY ACCURATE.
And this advice is FREE!
HMMM …
so $15 million net worth "does not inspire confidence" … seriously?It proves he's not doing it for the money!
@Gekov: Actually he also gives highly restricted market info, if you want his actual detailed stuff you have to pay and half his free stuff seems to be him talking about himself. No $15m for 20+ years of being a market guru plus all his side line jobs does not AT ALL inspire confidence.
@gromit: "Actually he also gives highly restricted market info"
HUH?
He clearly lays out what is happening in detail FOR FREE.
His paid services consist of managing peoples funds and giving stock specific recommendations which are not relevant in Oz anyway.
But his free shows are HIGHLY DETAILED AND INVALUBALE FOR TRADING THE AUSSIE MARKET WITH NO OBVIOUS RESTRICTIONS.
[THIS WORKS COZ THE AUSSIE MARKET FOLLOWS THE US.]WTF are you smoking?
And you obviously haven't listened in on his shows.
I've been following his ACCURATE readings of the markets for about 2 years now.
Gary appears on Fox, a dystopian cable channel directed at MAGA cult members. Buyer beware…
"Buyer beware…"
Yeah right, so a proven historical record of timing the markets ain't good enough, eh?
GaryK's 8 Nov 2023 show, along with all his other shows, CONVINCINGLY PROVE THAT THIS GUY IS A MASTER AT TIMING THE MARKET!
Have a listen especially his 8 Nov 2023 show.
"Buyer beware…"
HUH??????????????????????
Gay's shows ARE FREE WITH A FULL AND TRANSPARENT HISTORICAL RECORD BABY!
@Gekov: He's a genius! Gary Kaltbaum said he agreed with President Donald J. Trump's assessment that the stock market would crash if one of the Democratic candidates defeats Trump in the 2020 presidential election. Stuff you have to say if you broadcast on Fox.
@Gekov: I do regret having triggered you. Please seek help. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=812591972454316
@sumyungguy: FYI:
How GaryK avoids bear markets …
see his two educational shows around about the 25 Nov 2023@sumyungguy: GaryK 15 Dec 2023 …
more hints at a new bull market "we think the market is turning"GaryK 1 Dec 2023
QUOTE: "on 1 Nov we said to you we think the markets have turned [BULLISH]""stair steps now going up" … "broad based" from 14 November 2023
"you can't time the market " … YEAH RIGHT
"directed at MAGA cult members"
You mean those that, ignore the "you can't time the market" CRAP, follow his advice, and are raking it in big time eh?
"dystopian cable channel directed at MAGA cult members"
FYI:
If you listen to his shows, GaryK hates BOTH Biden & Trump!"The Ebola virus vs COVID" in the 2024 presidential election is one quote.
"dystopian cable channel directed at MAGA cult members"
Interesting that GaryK claims Biden has stolen the LYING championship belt from Trump, and even points out each item of the continuous stream of blatant Biden lies.
But our woke friends choose to ignore this fact, for obvious reasons.
Which raises another point …
Why is the obviously woke fraternity infesting OzB wasting their "valuable" time trying to save a few shekels here, instead of hunkering down for the coming (soon, trust us) climate apocalypse predicted by their high priestess Greta???
The mind boggles …
"a dystopian cable channel directed at MAGA cult members"
ROTFLMAO The view from THE BLINKERED EXTREME FAR LEFT!
POT, KETTLE, BLACK
You want REALLY & TRULY DYSTOPIAN???
We all know “ABC” is short for “anything but conservatives”, a motto which is adhered to strictly, without a single conservative presenter or editor of a mainstream current affairs show, and a string of lefties to present shows like Media Watch.
Not only that, but other areas, like science, are stuffed with green/left activists, think Robyn Williams, Bernie Hobbs, “Doctor” Karl to name but three…https://australianclimatemadness.com/2013/12/05/abc-bias-ape…
@Gekov: Jesus bro, you ok?
You must be well triggered to come back and reply to yourself for like 3-4 hours.@Randolph Duke: So, are you the one who negated my last comment?
Too bad you followed the "you can't time the market " lie and missed out on a huge stock market rally eh?
… green with envy … comes to mind.
Stick to the lie baby.
@Gekov: I didn’t neg your comments, and didn’t miss the market increases. I also don’t pretend that it was any great skill on my behalf, ETF’s and time in the market > timing the market.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/030916/buffe…
Some people strike it lucky, anyone who was consistently timing the market year after year wouldn’t be shilling shit on the Internet, they’d be focus on maximising their market investments or sleeping by the water on their private island.
@Randolph Duke: "time in the market > timing the market"
Yeah right … patience is a virtue?.
"time in the market" = I'm down 50% … what me worry?"I also don’t pretend that it was any great skill on my behalf"
Of course not, buying blindly with the crowd, waiting patiently, and having to live through brutal bear markets requires no skill at all!
So what else is new?@Gekov: Judging by the way you rattle gun posts you’ve clearly got no patience to compose your thoughts before hitting the Post Comment button.
Take a Xanax and chill out.
@LlamaOfDoom: In his latest update (12 Mar 2024) of the Investor's Edge show, GaryK goes over how he initiated a large position in the S&P500 index after PICKING THE BOTTOM AND A NEW BULL MARKET UP TREND on the 14 Nov 2023.
He has ridden the new S&P500 index BULL MARKET uptrend until today.
He still doesn't see any sign of the bull market ending, but if he does, he will dump his holding.
HAVE A LISTEN … https://garykaltbaum.com/
His motto is "BE WRONG SMALL, BE RIGHT LARGE"
You can check out his bona fides by going back the FREELY AVAILABLE historical Investor's Edge show of the 14 Nov 2023.
He has also ACCURATELY picked many TRADEABLE short term tops and bottoms in the preceding bear market as well.
Check out his FREELY AVAILABLE historical Investor's Edge shows to prove this to yourself.
A MASTER OF MARKET TIMING!
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what would you do with it