Lucky Lotteries $90 Mil. Is It Worth It?

LI Smell Pennies on 13/08/2019 - 20:29
Last edited 13/08/2019 - 22:34 by 1 other user

Hey guys. First post here.. Just a little discussion.

The lucky lotteries Mega jackpot has reached $90 million now. I've purchased tickets (2 random numbers) every 2 days since last week, have not won anything at all, not even the lowest one (at ~$12). I haven't even won the number behind and in front.

Just wondering if anyone has been purchasing tickets for the lucky lotteries draw recently and if you've had won anything. Also how many numbers do you usually buy? I know the chances are extremely low to win the Jackpot, but to not win anything is disappointing. But again, if you don't buy any tickets, you've got absolutely no chance of winning at all. Not blaming anyone, I just do it for the fun.

There have been even multiple draws on some days, and each draw is 200,000 tickets, so alot of people have been buying them. Is it worth it to continue?

Any discussions welcome :)

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8
I've purchased tickets and have won
11
I've purchased tickets and not won
4
I haven't purchased any tikcets
56
Buying tickets is not worth it

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Comments

Melb69 on 13/08/2019 - 20:36

Your've got to be in it to win it. Try your luck. 36 numbers is what I usually get. On a random whim. Supposedly you have a better chance on the lower draw night of getting more of a pay out. Assume it has to do with there being more punters in the big draws. Its still very hard to win. It is very much luck.
- Eeples on 13/08/2019 - 20:42
  
  +1
  
  $198 a throw?
  - Strahany on 13/08/2019 - 20:46
    
    +6
    
    It’s amazing what you can do when you stop eating smashed avo
- I Smell Pennies on 13/08/2019 - 21:03
  
  36 numbers??! Oh wow. You must have won something with that!
- HighAndDry on 13/08/2019 - 21:33
  
  Assume it has to do with there being more punters in the big draws.
  
  How does Lucky lotteries work? If it's just matching numbers, the amount of people in the draw is irrelevant, only what your numbers are.
- k-rokfm on 14/08/2019 - 08:19
  
  +1
  
  Yeah i think you have your draws mixed up. This is a Lucky Lotteries one - kind of like a raffle. Theres only ever 200k tickets per draw
sraven373 on 13/08/2019 - 20:59

+16

The Lotto is a tax on people who are bad at math
Most of the time you have as much chance of winning with a ticket as you do finding the winning ticket whilst walking down the street on the sidewalk
Save your money and consider that you won a small amount each week, and you'll be able to go out to eat or on a holiday
- mskeggs on 13/08/2019 - 21:04
  
  +6
  
  This is very true, but I have been known to buy a cheap ticket to participate in the dream of winning.
  The best is to buy a scratchie and tape it to your monitor at work.
  When people ask, tell them it is your insurance in case you just get asked one too many dumb questions.
  After a few months, dramatically scratch it after you get asked a dumb question.
  Then retire in comfort or go buy another…
- outlander on 13/08/2019 - 22:55
  
  +1
  
  Unless you're a Romanian born mathematician.
  - mskeggs on 13/08/2019 - 23:13
    
    I remember that guy on TV in the 1980s after a big lotto jackpot. He was in the studio for the draw, and they interviewed him immediately afterwards.
    Unfortunately, while he did win, so did 2 other entrants, cutting his expected payout by two thirds. I remember him saying in a sad voice, “well, we will have to see what the division 2 to 4 prizes amount to before we know if we made money”. And the hosts blithely kept going with their “so be in it to win it, even if you can’t buy all the tickets”.
kahn on 13/08/2019 - 21:09

+4

Just make sure you've bought enough tickets so you can't lose, like this guy.
- watwatwat on 15/08/2019 - 13:27
  
  +1
  
  Oh, I thought this was going to be a Mr Beast video.
akajin on 13/08/2019 - 21:09

Lotteries are never worth buying but if you were going to buy a lottery ticket this is the one to buy.

With the current Jackpot the expected average win value is around 0.89 which is the highest value it is been probably in the history of Australian Lottery.

Other lottery tickets are cheaper and have had higher Jackpots than this before but the expected average win value was lower due to high likelihood of shared jackpot.
Diji1 on 13/08/2019 - 21:12

+4

The chances of winning division one are essentially so small that treating the chance as if it's there is silly. The reality is it's so small that acting as though there's a chance is silly.

For normal lotto I believe the chances of winning the lowest division are 1 in 224 so still pretty unlikely.

Like mskeggs I occasionally dabble in weekly draw if they jackpot impressively … 80 million is around where I start getting interested.

It's a tax on stupidity because you're just buying a chance that doesn't exist (well it does but see above).

Worth it? No.
AustriaBargain on 13/08/2019 - 21:16

+4

you only need one ticket to gain the "what if" excitement of winning, which is worth $12 imo if it can keep you excited for weeks until the draw. Mathematically you cannot win, so you shouldn't bother buying more than one single ticket. If you do win though, you need to give me one million for this sage advice.
- Kangal on 13/08/2019 - 22:56
  
  That's actually kinda smart.
  There's some utility in the "feeling" of winning, so you may as well get 1 cheap ticket and do it once-twice a year.
  Over say 30 years it will add up, to say, a thousand dollars. Which is cheap/expendable but might have a bigger boost to your morale.
Godric on 13/08/2019 - 21:24

+2

Only if you win
donga100 on 13/08/2019 - 21:36

+3
Surprisingly, it actually is worth playing right now. According to the game rules they only return 62.25% of the money as prizes including the amount put aside for the jackpot. So normally it isn't a good investment.

However, thanks to the bad luck of previous players it is profitable based on the current jackpot:

There are 200,000 tickets sold in each Mega Jackpot at $5.50 each = $1,100,000 total paid by players

Standard prizes = $314,725 + $45,700 in consolation prizes/free tickets

4218 numbers are drawn in the first draw, therefore the average amount won from the jackpot is 4218/200000 x 90000000 = $1,898,100

total prizes = $2,258,525

This means that players will get a 105.32% average return on investment when the jackpot is at $90M!

In fact, it is profitable to play at any time when the jackpot is over $35,067,567.57

I suppose the only problem is that the next two draws are already sold out so you don't know if the $90M jackpot will still be there by the time the third draw comes around.
- Ugly on 14/08/2019 - 13:02
  
  Small flaw in your logic? - there is no guarantee that the Jackpot is won (hence being a jackpot), so the only "guaranteed" prizes are the standard prizes.
  The size of the jackpot does not influence the average return
  - donga100 on 14/08/2019 - 14:04
    
    Yes, that's why I only added $1.9M to the prize money for the jackpot because the jackpot is only won 4218 times out of 200000 draws. The size of the jackpot definitely influences the average return.
    - suti on 21/08/2019 - 12:24
      
      +1
      
      For some reason, you have the correct answer but the least votes - everyone else has said 'lotto = waste of money' without quantifying.
      
      In mathematical terms, the expected value of buying a $5.50 ticket is just over $11 because of the $90m+ jackpot.
      - profar on 21/08/2019 - 13:37
        
        @suti: Go to kindergarden mathematics bud .
        
        Do you really think 105% average return turns your $5.50 into over $11.
        
        Try $5.79
      - donga100 on 21/08/2019 - 20:37
        
        @suti: Ironically, I voted for "Buying tickets is not worth it" instinctively before deciding to have a proper look into it. Now I can't change my vote.
John Kimble on 13/08/2019 - 21:58

+2

Probably not worth it, but if you can afford it and it's just for a bit of fun, why not. Or just forfeit something like buying coffees if it makes you feel better?

The thing I like about lotteries is that it is raffle style, so winner takes all, no sharing! Not that I've ever won more than $50.

In addition, it is mathematically one of the "easiest" to win the jackpot than most of the other ones available…eg oz lotto and powerball are 1 in 34mill and 1 in 134mill respectively.

https://www.thelott.com/content/dam/projects/the-lott/winnin…

1:9,483,167 to win the jackpot prize

(having said this, it hasn't been won in over a year? 89mill/240k), hence it's current jackpot amount).

You might also be up against this guy: https://www.smh.com.au/national/meet-the-joker-the-australia…

also see very long whirlpool thread here: https://forums.whirlpool.net.au/archive/2769174
barozgain on 14/08/2019 - 00:21

+1

Well, I'd rather enter those "free" competitions on Ozbargain for free trips worth $25k+ in which I get a chance without forking out any money vs lotto where I'm basically most likely losing money
screensaver on 14/08/2019 - 01:14

I bought one today, but I feel 2 tickets in the one draw would be better.
- I Smell Pennies on 14/08/2019 - 01:22
  
  i think so too. because the second draw would be a restart. however, if you doubled the tickets for 1 draw, theres x less numbers to care about
screensaver on 14/08/2019 - 02:05

+2

We should form a syndicate to buy several tickets in each draw til its won
screensaver on 14/08/2019 - 02:08

5 x people 21 each = 4 tickets each draw for 5 draws or 5 tickets for 4 draws
c64 on 14/08/2019 - 05:41

+2

why do you think the pool has reached $90m??
Bid Sniper on 14/08/2019 - 08:07

opt in tax
Skramit on 14/08/2019 - 08:44

Not blaming anyone

Whew, for a moment there I thought it was my fault!
Skramit on 14/08/2019 - 08:49

+1

Just looked up how this one works…. YOU HAVE TO WIN TWICE to win the jackpot? LOL. Good luck….

In each Lucky Lotteries Mega Jackpot a ticket number is drawn from the full set of ticket numbers in the game. If that ticket number has already won a cash prize in the draw, then it wins the jackpot. If the ticket number hasn't won a cash prize, then the jackpot increases for the next draw.
pjetson on 14/08/2019 - 08:58

-1

The whole point of lotteries is that the prizes given out are less than the money raised - only the lottery company, ticket sellers, and the government win every week.

According to Wikipedia, you have about a 1 in 10 million chance of winning the jackpot, but a 1 in 47 chance of winning a cash prize. If you've purchased more than 47 tickets, and not won anything at all, I think you should complain.
GG57 on 14/08/2019 - 10:18

-2

I thought Forum posts re gambling was not permitted on OzB?
cvas on 14/08/2019 - 10:20

You'd have more chance of winning the lotto
myusername on 14/08/2019 - 15:40

-6

you have a better chance of winning the lower jackpots than these.

everyman and his dog will enter into these types of jackpots. thus lowering your odds.

try entering in the lower jackpots like 1 mill or something you have a better chance.

ps i work in that industry now
- John Kimble on 14/08/2019 - 18:22
  
  +3
  
  everyman and his dog will enter into these types of jackpots. thus lowering your odds.
  
  100% incorrect. There is always exactly 200,000 tickets per draw.
  
  Even if you were incorrectly thinking of lotto, you're still wrong.
  
  Perhaps you need to try a new industry.
  - myusername on 15/08/2019 - 10:37
    
    like wow i would never intrude on someone else occupation and tell them they're wrong.
    
    not that i care anyway as it people with your attitude and perception of these things that keep my department employed.
    
    thanks xoxo
    
    ps you know they say a sucker is born every minute.
    
    have a wonderful life
    - John Kimble on 15/08/2019 - 11:29
      
      like wow i would never intrude on someone else occupation and tell them they're wrong.
      
      I'm not intruding…you were wrong!? You made a false statement, trying to give it more weight by saying you're in the industry, which makes it worse. Do you not admit it was wrong? Just man up and admit it.
      
      eg if I was a mechanic and gave out wrong information about cars, and said "I'm a mechanic" at the end, everyone would/should point that out.
      
      not that i care anyway
      
      You don't care you're giving out incorrect information about your field?
      
      as it people with your attitude and perception of these things that keep my department employed
      
      This is unfortunately true. ha
      
      ps you know they say a sucker is born every minute.
      
      have a wonderful life
      
      Very mature…
      - myusername on 15/08/2019 - 11:39
        
        -2
        
        @John Kimble: insert worlds smallest violin
        
        John Kimble on 15/08/2019 - 11:42
        
        @myusername: Great dodging, you should call yourself Neo
        
        myusername on 15/08/2019 - 12:01
        
        -1
        
        @John Kimble: hey thanks for the laugh have shown the team here the thread.
        
        lololololol all round the office today
        
        the team here thanks you for the entertainment.
        
        our sdm would like to know if you have any more information about our industry that we're not aware of?
        
        John Kimble on 15/08/2019 - 12:08
        
        +1
        
        @myusername: I wouldn't think it would be the best career move showing your team that you don't actually know the basic math/probability of these products…how sure are you that they're not laughing at you? 🤔
        
        If you somehow still believe your initial comment is correct, please explain it further/show the math for my simple brain. Better yet, ask one of your colleagues…
        
        myusername on 15/08/2019 - 14:33
        
        @John Kimble: because we have people like yourself putting up this type of argument all the time
        
        John Kimble on 15/08/2019 - 14:51
        
        @myusername: Yet you've not tackled the "argument" head on at all? You've just avoided it entirely. You've repeatedly ignored my requests to prove/provide evidence your initial comment was correct…whilst trying to change the subject/belittle me, so I take back my Neo label and reckon you're more suited for politics!
        
        To recap, your responses have been:
        - I would never tell someone they're wrong
        - don't care anyway, you're a sucker for playing in the first place/keeping me in a job
        - tiny violin
        - we are laughing at you
        - you argue the same as a lot of other people
        
        myusername on 15/08/2019 - 15:05
        
        @John Kimble: oh there was a question in your first barrage?
        
        what was the question?
        
        John Kimble on 15/08/2019 - 15:11
        
        @myusername: Wouldn't call my first comment a barrage, just calling out your incorrect statement.
        
        Usually when someone says "you're wrong" the person defends themselves/explains why they are not wrong.
        
        Please explain to me why one's odds lower, the more people play Lucky Lotteries (or even Lotto). ie why the below statements are true.
        
        you have a better chance of winning the lower jackpots than these.
        
        everyman and his dog will enter into these types of jackpots. thus lowering your odds.
        
        try entering in the lower jackpots like 1 mill or something you have a better chance.
        
        If you can't, you should own up and admit you were wrong/made an incorrect statement.
        
        John Kimble on 20/08/2019 - 00:24
        
        @myusername: Anything???
        
        myusername on 21/08/2019 - 13:28
        
        -1
        
        @John Kimble: yeah you made the interstate stand up meeting yesterday lol
        
        John Kimble on 21/08/2019 - 13:31
        
        @myusername: Wow, what a coincidence. Good to hear your meetings are productive and you discuss important topics.
        
        Again you avoid answering the question. But fair enough, seeing as you don't have an answer and don't have the guts to admit when you're wrong.
        
        Politics mate, that's where you belong.
        
        myusername on 21/08/2019 - 13:40
        
        -3
        
        @John Kimble: look i'm sorry you havent won the lotto.
        
        but you need to let it gooooooooooo
        
        maybe your theory isn't as water tight as you feel it is.
        
        it's ok to swallow some pride no one knows you personally here.
        
        John Kimble on 21/08/2019 - 13:49
        
        @myusername:
        
        look i'm sorry you havent won the lotto.
        
        I'm sorry too! 😂 Technically we are talking about Lucky Lotteries though, you know that right?
        
        but you need to let it gooooooooooo
        
        Nope, not letting go that you made an incorrect statement when you're in the industry.
        
        maybe your theory isn't as water tight as you feel it is.
        
        What theory? What "feel"? It's basic math?
        
        For the nth time, please explain where I'm wrong, seeing as you're the expert. I am more than happy to swallow pride and admit I am wrong if you can do so, but you haven't done that at all, you just keep avoiding it and making random stories up. Without providing proof/evidence, you are just embarrassing yourself.
        
        it's ok to swallow some pride no one knows you personally here.
        
        haha, hello pot!
        
        myusername on 21/08/2019 - 14:06
        
        -1
        
        @John Kimble: insert world's smallest violin once again…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..maybe you should get a job?
        
        John Kimble on 21/08/2019 - 14:10
        
        @myusername: Fortunately/unfortunately I have one.
        
        Again, you dodge the question. Your powers of avoidance are incredible. Why is that? Can you at least answer me that?
        
        myusername on 21/08/2019 - 14:35
        
        -1
        
        @John Kimble: yes i can :-)
        
        yes we can
        
        yes you can win if only you believe in yourself :-)
        
        John Kimble on 21/08/2019 - 14:37
        
        +1
        
        @myusername: Right, so you've resorted to nonsensical trolling now.
        
        Oh well, I tried.
        
        Dunno why you wasted your time replying to me with your random stories and tiny violins…the ultimate "smack down" to put me in my place (which would have ended it then and there), would have simply been to provide proof/evidence you were right and I was wrong…but I suppose if you're trolling, you've done well.
        
        myusername on 21/08/2019 - 15:10
        
        -1
        
        @John Kimble: i'm trolling?
        
        dayum son i thought i was the one feeding the troll
        
        John Kimble on 21/08/2019 - 15:16
        
        @myusername: Incorrect, yet again.
watwatwat on 15/08/2019 - 13:30

+3

The odds are so low, it truly isn't worth playing. And if the money is being wasted, I would much rather acquire goods and services with the money.

Think about it… waste $20 on a piece of paper with numbers on it then throw it in the bin. Or…. go and enjoy a nice Boost juice, have a nice meal somewhere. Get a massage. Whatever you want. Why give up all these things for a piece of paper.

And if you don't go indulge on goods and services, save the money and it will compound for the rest of your life so you can retire earlier.

Oh, and then there is the point that… do you actually want to win the lottery? Go look up data on what happens to people's lives afterwards. Your chances of getting murdered etc. go up dramatically afterwards.
- donga100 on 15/08/2019 - 17:07
  
  +1
  
  Your chances of getting murdered etc. go up dramatically afterwards.
  
  Ironically those chances are probably still lower than winning this jackpot.
  - pjetson on 20/08/2019 - 16:41
    
    So you're saying that there is less chance of winning than there is of being murdered if you did win?
    - I Smell Pennies on 20/08/2019 - 16:43
      
      +1
      
      I think donga is saying there is less chance of getting murdered if you win THAN actually winning
      - pjetson on 20/08/2019 - 16:44
        
        -3
        
        @I Smell Pennies: So, if you don't win, there's more chance of being murdered?
        
        I Smell Pennies on 21/08/2019 - 15:11
        
        +2
        
        @pjetson: alright forget what I said lol
akajin on 26/08/2019 - 15:54

-1

I am not sure how but I managed to win 3 free tickets from buying 2 sequential numbers. (No actual prize)

Can someone let me know how this is possible?
profar on 27/08/2019 - 18:17

Maybe Z some Syd man won it 96 mil :)

Lucky Lotteries $90 Mil. Is It Worth It?

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