Lucky Lotteries $90 Mil. Is It Worth It?

Hey guys. First post here.. Just a little discussion.

The lucky lotteries Mega jackpot has reached $90 million now. I've purchased tickets (2 random numbers) every 2 days since last week, have not won anything at all, not even the lowest one (at ~$12). I haven't even won the number behind and in front.

Just wondering if anyone has been purchasing tickets for the lucky lotteries draw recently and if you've had won anything. Also how many numbers do you usually buy? I know the chances are extremely low to win the Jackpot, but to not win anything is disappointing. But again, if you don't buy any tickets, you've got absolutely no chance of winning at all. Not blaming anyone, I just do it for the fun.

There have been even multiple draws on some days, and each draw is 200,000 tickets, so alot of people have been buying them. Is it worth it to continue?

Any discussions welcome :)

Poll Options Wed, 01/01/2020 - 00:00

  • 8
    I've purchased tickets and have won
  • 8
    I've purchased tickets and not won
  • 4
    I haven't purchased any tikcets
  • 52
    Buying tickets is not worth it

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Comments

  •  

    Your've got to be in it to win it. Try your luck. 36 numbers is what I usually get. On a random whim. Supposedly you have a better chance on the lower draw night of getting more of a pay out. Assume it has to do with there being more punters in the big draws. Its still very hard to win. It is very much luck.

    • +1 vote

      $198 a throw?

    •  

      36 numbers??! Oh wow. You must have won something with that!

    •  

      Assume it has to do with there being more punters in the big draws.

      How does Lucky lotteries work? If it's just matching numbers, the amount of people in the draw is irrelevant, only what your numbers are.

    • +1 vote

      Yeah i think you have your draws mixed up. This is a Lucky Lotteries one - kind of like a raffle. Theres only ever 200k tickets per draw

  • +16 votes

    The Lotto is a tax on people who are bad at math
    Most of the time you have as much chance of winning with a ticket as you do finding the winning ticket whilst walking down the street on the sidewalk
    Save your money and consider that you won a small amount each week, and you'll be able to go out to eat or on a holiday

    • +6 votes

      This is very true, but I have been known to buy a cheap ticket to participate in the dream of winning.
      The best is to buy a scratchie and tape it to your monitor at work.
      When people ask, tell them it is your insurance in case you just get asked one too many dumb questions.
      After a few months, dramatically scratch it after you get asked a dumb question.
      Then retire in comfort or go buy another…

      •  

        I remember that guy on TV in the 1980s after a big lotto jackpot. He was in the studio for the draw, and they interviewed him immediately afterwards.
        Unfortunately, while he did win, so did 2 other entrants, cutting his expected payout by two thirds. I remember him saying in a sad voice, “well, we will have to see what the division 2 to 4 prizes amount to before we know if we made money”. And the hosts blithely kept going with their “so be in it to win it, even if you can’t buy all the tickets”.

  • +4 votes

    Just make sure you've bought enough tickets so you can't lose, like this guy.

  •  

    Lotteries are never worth buying but if you were going to buy a lottery ticket this is the one to buy.

    With the current Jackpot the expected average win value is around 0.89 which is the highest value it is been probably in the history of Australian Lottery.

    Other lottery tickets are cheaper and have had higher Jackpots than this before but the expected average win value was lower due to high likelihood of shared jackpot.

  • +4 votes

    The chances of winning division one are essentially so small that treating the chance as if it's there is silly. The reality is it's so small that acting as though there's a chance is silly.

    For normal lotto I believe the chances of winning the lowest division are 1 in 224 so still pretty unlikely.

    Like mskeggs I occasionally dabble in weekly draw if they jackpot impressively … 80 million is around where I start getting interested.

    It's a tax on stupidity because you're just buying a chance that doesn't exist (well it does but see above).

    Worth it? No.

  • +4 votes

    you only need one ticket to gain the "what if" excitement of winning, which is worth $12 imo if it can keep you excited for weeks until the draw. Mathematically you cannot win, so you shouldn't bother buying more than one single ticket. If you do win though, you need to give me one million for this sage advice.

    •  

      That's actually kinda smart.
      There's some utility in the "feeling" of winning, so you may as well get 1 cheap ticket and do it once-twice a year.
      Over say 30 years it will add up, to say, a thousand dollars. Which is cheap/expendable but might have a bigger boost to your morale.

  • +2 votes

    Only if you win

  • +2 votes

    Surprisingly, it actually is worth playing right now. According to the game rules they only return 62.25% of the money as prizes including the amount put aside for the jackpot. So normally it isn't a good investment.

    However, thanks to the bad luck of previous players it is profitable based on the current jackpot:

    • There are 200,000 tickets sold in each Mega Jackpot at $5.50 each = $1,100,000 total paid by players
    • Standard prizes = $314,725 + $45,700 in consolation prizes/free tickets
    • 4218 numbers are drawn in the first draw, therefore the average amount won from the jackpot is 4218/200000 x 90000000 = $1,898,100
    • total prizes = $2,258,525

    This means that players will get a 105.32% average return on investment when the jackpot is at $90M!

    In fact, it is profitable to play at any time when the jackpot is over $35,067,567.57

    I suppose the only problem is that the next two draws are already sold out so you don't know if the $90M jackpot will still be there by the time the third draw comes around.

    •  

      Small flaw in your logic? - there is no guarantee that the Jackpot is won (hence being a jackpot), so the only "guaranteed" prizes are the standard prizes.
      The size of the jackpot does not influence the average return

      •  

        Yes, that's why I only added $1.9M to the prize money for the jackpot because the jackpot is only won 4218 times out of 200000 draws. The size of the jackpot definitely influences the average return.

        • +1 vote

          For some reason, you have the correct answer but the least votes - everyone else has said 'lotto = waste of money' without quantifying.

          In mathematical terms, the expected value of buying a $5.50 ticket is just over $11 because of the $90m+ jackpot.

          • -1 vote

            @suti: Go to kindergarden mathematics bud .

            Do you really think 105% average return turns your $5.50 into over $11.

            Try $5.79

          •  

            @suti: Ironically, I voted for "Buying tickets is not worth it" instinctively before deciding to have a proper look into it. Now I can't change my vote.

  • +2 votes

    Probably not worth it, but if you can afford it and it's just for a bit of fun, why not. Or just forfeit something like buying coffees if it makes you feel better?

    The thing I like about lotteries is that it is raffle style, so winner takes all, no sharing! Not that I've ever won more than $50.

    In addition, it is mathematically one of the "easiest" to win the jackpot than most of the other ones available…eg oz lotto and powerball are 1 in 34mill and 1 in 134mill respectively.

    https://www.thelott.com/content/dam/projects/the-lott/winnin...

    1:9,483,167 to win the jackpot prize

    (having said this, it hasn't been won in over a year? 89mill/240k), hence it's current jackpot amount).

    You might also be up against this guy: https://www.smh.com.au/national/meet-the-joker-the-australia...

    also see very long whirlpool thread here: https://forums.whirlpool.net.au/archive/2769174

  • +1 vote

    Well, I'd rather enter those "free" competitions on Ozbargain for free trips worth $25k+ in which I get a chance without forking out any money vs lotto where I'm basically most likely losing money

  •  

    I bought one today, but I feel 2 tickets in the one draw would be better.

    •  

      i think so too. because the second draw would be a restart. however, if you doubled the tickets for 1 draw, theres x less numbers to care about

  • +2 votes

    We should form a syndicate to buy several tickets in each draw til its won

  •  

    5 x people 21 each = 4 tickets each draw for 5 draws or 5 tickets for 4 draws

  • +2 votes

    why do you think the pool has reached $90m??

  •  

    opt in tax

  •  

    Not blaming anyone

    Whew, for a moment there I thought it was my fault!

  • +1 vote

    Just looked up how this one works…. YOU HAVE TO WIN TWICE to win the jackpot? LOL. Good luck….

    In each Lucky Lotteries Mega Jackpot a ticket number is drawn from the full set of ticket numbers in the game. If that ticket number has already won a cash prize in the draw, then it wins the jackpot. If the ticket number hasn't won a cash prize, then the jackpot increases for the next draw.

  • -1 vote

    The whole point of lotteries is that the prizes given out are less than the money raised - only the lottery company, ticket sellers, and the government win every week.

    According to Wikipedia, you have about a 1 in 10 million chance of winning the jackpot, but a 1 in 47 chance of winning a cash prize. If you've purchased more than 47 tickets, and not won anything at all, I think you should complain.

  • -2 votes

    I thought Forum posts re gambling was not permitted on OzB?

  •  

    You'd have more chance of winning the lotto

    • +3 votes

      everyman and his dog will enter into these types of jackpots. thus lowering your odds.

      100% incorrect. There is always exactly 200,000 tickets per draw.

      Even if you were incorrectly thinking of lotto, you're still wrong.

      Perhaps you need to try a new industry.

  • +3 votes

    The odds are so low, it truly isn't worth playing. And if the money is being wasted, I would much rather acquire goods and services with the money.

    Think about it… waste $20 on a piece of paper with numbers on it then throw it in the bin. Or…. go and enjoy a nice Boost juice, have a nice meal somewhere. Get a massage. Whatever you want. Why give up all these things for a piece of paper.

    And if you don't go indulge on goods and services, save the money and it will compound for the rest of your life so you can retire earlier.

    Oh, and then there is the point that… do you actually want to win the lottery? Go look up data on what happens to people's lives afterwards. Your chances of getting murdered etc. go up dramatically afterwards.

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