What's Your Thought on The Current Covid-19 Economic Situation?

With the current news stating that the unemployemnt rate will rise upto 10% in end of June, what do you think when the economy will start to get better again?

The Jokkeeper salary will be terminated on Sep 2020 and that's when the Jobseeker payment will be cut as well.

With all these things happening, the new rental properties are redicing their advertised rent by 10% now and there is a marginal amount of drop in property selling price. When do you think the economy will start to pick up again and the house prices will start to go up?

Comments

    • +1

      Good thought. I think the ability to earn is a major factor for the house prices to go up. If people earns more, then can pay off mortgage soon, and that's when the bank provide loans.

      With the current situation, people cannot go back to earn their previous Covid-19 situation, unless the lockdown is over and business goes back to normal.

    • I thought it was oh so telling that in a question about economy, never mind job and employment as such, it's all focused on welfare payments and house prices.

      Out of all the others are focus on the ones that do zero for local businesses and the actual economy. All that ponzi scheme of paper value of property does is take away precious disposable income that businesses need especially when they re-open.

      The news once had the doomsday headline about 10% "drop" and I'm sitting there thinking 10% would put it back to what it was only a year or two ago. "Big deal …" (and I say this as a person with a home loan)

    • +2

      You're forgetting buyer demand.

      Less buyers = house price down.

      No steady job, no loan. No immigrants. Can't sell current property, can't buy new one. Low demand, no auctions …and so on.

    • +51

      Based on what is occurring in other countries it was better to overreact than underreact.

      Countries with the lowest number of COVID-19 cases overreacted while countries that underreacted have the highest number of cases.

      • -6

        Ideally you want to find a balance. I think Sweden are the closest..

        • +8

          Hard to say, there figures are significantly higher than their neighbours. We really won’t know the answer to any of this until economies start to pickup and we see what is left.

          • -1

            @try2bhelpful: Despite not having strict measures, they seem to have mitigated to a good extent. In essence, what they found was that despite not having strict measures most people were using common sense. For example public transport usage is still well down on normal numbers.

            • +1

              @mlburnian: It depends on what you classify as “to a good extent” and nobody is out of the woods yet. They probably aren’t going down the American path but, as we know, the difference between OK and out of control can be a matter of a few incidents and a little bit of time. I do agree I would rather be in Sweden, than America, but, until the dust clears, the true impacts on everybody’s economies won’t be known. What astounds me is how quickly the world’s economies can end up in the toilet. A bit of social isolation can crash so much. People can still go out and buy essentials, many people are still working, but we are talking of billions and trillions of Government money to keep everything moving at all.

              • +2

                @try2bhelpful:

                billions and trillions of Government money to keep everything moving at all.

                body bags piling up in NY, but stocks only go up

                and Trump gonna reopen America soon

                • +6

                  @dcep: The ease with which American’s have written off an almost certain death rate of 60,000 with a potential increase to between 100,000 to 240,000 is astonishing.

                  I’m not sure if they don’t think it will happen, that God will intervene, or that they just want the deaths to happen quickly so they can get on with buying their “stuff”. The scientists aren’t even certain that people can’t get reinfected, so herd immunity may not even apply.

                  Herd immunity will result in the deaths of young healthy people; even if medical equipment is available. The faster the attempt to get herd immunity the more likely people will die.

                  I, honestly, have no answers here. I want to get back to normal, too, but we need to be cognisant that our impatience does curtail people’s lives. The question is what trade off are we willing to accept, and will we think it is worth it if we, personally, pay the price. Every statistic is a persons life.

                  • @try2bhelpful: I would love this to be all over and return to normal or to pre covid days. But reality bits hard.

                    Deaths of young people are extremely rare. For under 25's it appears to be at or lower than the common cold.

                    potential increase to between 100,000 to 240,000 is astonishing.
                    Unfortunately this is a gross underestimation. More likely to be in several million.

        • +11

          Australia
          Confirmed
          6,711
          Recovered
          5,539
          Deaths
          83

          Sweden
          Confirmed
          18,640
          Recovered
          550
          Deaths
          2,194

        • +5

          Sweden has one of the highest death rate per millions. And please don't trust on what their chief epidemiologist said about herd immunity. He has no data to back up apart from speculation. Anti body test in other countries with large number of cases points the immunity level around 3-8% of population, no where near the level required for herd immunity. Infection rate as well as death rate in Sweden are not trending down. So don't take them as model country, we will have to wait how it pans out in the end.

          EDIT: another the point to raise, social distancing is a built-in thing Swedish culture. The main problem with Swedes is that their constitution doesn't allow them to lockdown. They can only make recommendations.

        • Sweden is basically turning into a basket case. they have less than half the population of Australia with 20 times the deaths and escalating. They have crossed the threshold now of having more patients in critical care than critical care beds. So I would not hold them up as being close to balanced, they are on the verge of being a complete disaster depending how the next week or 2 go.

        • Ideally… you would have brought large amounts of mask in preparation for this virus (They had 1 month to prepare) — because China covid cases were starting to explode — and it was a race to the clock.

          The government should have initiated research of testing kits earlier with our big pharm countries (They had the resources) and manufactured it preparation. They would have set up temperature monitors in every public gathering. (Shopping centers, Airports) they should have processes on how to process those who are higher risk who came into this country (i.e. maybe they should have done the hotel stuff in preparation). They should have restricted travel way earlier… They should have stimulated the economy way earlier (This would have actually saved jobs — it was too late… now a lot of jobs a gone). They also should have just given this COVID money to people who registered a tax income last FY instead of giving it to companies because this requires business rules that then take waaaayyyyy to long.. to start giving it out. Its the 28th of April, it's still another week before businesses would see this money to give to employees. I wonder how many companies are now gone between the beginning of this month when they announced to now. Probably a lot.

          Point is.. they should have ideally done so much! Yet they didn't.. so.. I think this overreaction was appropriate to catch up with all the bad decisions they did in hindsight.

    • I may be bad at math, but those numbers aren't close to making a single billion.

      • Only some items were highlighted in the article.

    • +3

      With thinkings and feelings like you have, we maybe glad you're not in a postion to do anything about it. 😀

      • -2

        Unlike you, I like to question decisions made by authorities. Don't be so simple minded.

        • +1

          Don't be so simple minded.

          Just proves my point ROFL

    • That is not an overreaction lol

      The future is not an exact science. That why we have things like insurance, you don't call it an overreaction every time you end up not having to claim.

  • +24

    I don't think the economy will in the near future return back to pre-covid-19 levels. I think it's going to take at least a few years to fully return back to normal.

    This is because COVID-19 is a global issue and Australia is very much part of a globalised society. If Australia did everything inhouse and didn't rely on other countries then maybe Australia could return back to normal in the near future.

  • +2

    years

  • When do you think the economy will start to pick up again and the house prices will start to go up?

    What do you think OP?

  • -3

    I have been hearing some very bad news.

    Quarantine measures may have to remain in place for a very long time. It could be a very long time. More than two years.

    The overall economy is going to be down for a long time, housing specifically probably nowhere near as much.

    Hopefully medical breakthroughs occur so this doesn't happen.

  • +5

    the house prices will start to go up?

    If people don't have jobs and we are in a recession, the answer is no.

    • +3

      But real estate always goes up!

      • Actually its a conspiracy against those young 😀

      • +8

        But real estate always goes up!

        Yes it does….. Unless its going down, and if going down, now is the best time to buy before it goes up again!

        Agents are funny beasts…..

        Going up, get in now before prices go up again

        Going down, get in now before prices gp up again.

        • is it really down tho, it doesn't look very cheap

          • @Trioboy: We're in the market now and I can say that in Sydney the low buyer turnout and hesitation for buyers to commit to purchasing has driven prices down. There's less competition, and auction sales have tanked. Just look at how many are either passed in or withdrawn, but then also look at how many sales still happen by negotiation. That said, it did pick up a little this week past, and our buyer's agent tells us that buyer inquiries are up substantially.

            So Sydney's housing market is still the (profanity) we have to live with, but if you have your finance ready and are wanting to buy I'd say to get into it soon. As soon as COVID19 confidence rises, more buyers will be back in play, reversing the trend of the last few weeks.

            Another point to consider is the mortgage 'holiday' incentives. This will keep buyers in the market, and hence prices will stay fairly strong.

            • @axloz: I doubt any bank is in the business of giving out “mortgage holiday incentives.” These are primarily meant for existing home loan clients impacted by COVID. Why would the bank lend to someone knowingly where income has stopped or has been reduced and then give them a repayment holiday soon after settlement - defies logic.

              People in the know say BIG 4 are doing stringent employment checks and I think it’s ING which has practically stopped lending to self employed clients (or imposed massive conditions )

              This is all having a massive effect on prices softening and will continue that way for a while IMO.

              • @Maxdax: So 'incentives' was a poor choice of wording there. But there's some buoyancy so mortgage holders don't go belly-up is the point.

                Time will tell how bad/low/soft it gets I guess!

          • -2

            @Trioboy: we are down about 10% from prices earlier in the year. As money lending gets tougher, there will be less buyers, so supply/demand rules kick in.

            High supply, low demand = reduced prices.

            • +2

              @JimmyF: lol 10%… nope. And its definitely lower in supply at the moment so hard to predict any movement.

              • @sheepzpal:

                lol 10%… nope.

                Don't know where you are looking, but lots of places I've had starred in the domain app are showing a 10% drop in the price history from what they had been 2-3 months ago. One I was just looking at before was listed a few months ago for $1.4m, now listed for $1.2m, thats over 10% drop.

                • +1

                  @JimmyF: what you have starred is a very small sample… from what "I have starred", they still went over the advertised reserve price which didn't change. But I wont be saying that the property prices are increasing….

                  • @sheepzpal:

                    what you have starred is a very small sample

                    YMMV but for my area in Melbourne, that is $1M+ in most cases, the prices are trending down, not up.

                    from what "I have starred", they still went over the advertised reserve price which didn't change.

                    Then I would say you have starred is a very small sample, and to extend your search area or price range ;)

                    But I wont be saying that the property prices are increasing

                    Agreed, But generally the higher end drops more than the lower end, as they are different buys.

                    A buyer looking at a $600k place isn't the same buyer looking at a $1.4m place.

                • @JimmyF: Does the app show price history? I haven't used the app before.

                  • +1

                    @sagrules: Correct, if you star it, it shows the price history.

        • I'm seeing circa 5-10% drops in apartments in some parts of Sydney.
          Others are sitting on the market a long time, or not selling at all..
          Then sellers are starting to dry up as well..

          Houses appear reasonably steady still.

          The mortgage holidays will minimise most of the magical foreclosure sales everyone is waiting on so I wouldn't hang out for that.

          • +1

            @axloz:

            I'm seeing circa 5-10% drops in apartments in some parts of Sydney.
            Others are sitting on the market a long time, or not selling at all..

            I agree, the same is happening here, but with houses

            Then sellers are starting to dry up as well..

            I would agree with this. People are just 'waiting' for the market to pickup rather than sell at a loss. The question is how long can they wait?

            The mortgage holidays will minimise most of the magical foreclosure sales everyone is waiting on so I wouldn't hang out for that.

            Just postpones things. If we don't 'pickup' in 6 months time, then what? Do we give them another 6 month holiday? As now things are really starting to get unfair and they are not letting 'market' forces do there job.

            • @JimmyF:

              As now things are really starting to get unfair and they are not letting 'market' forces do there job.

              It started when landlords had been forced to house non-paying tenants.

              Banks have had financial hardship assistance pre-covid19.

              • @ozhunter:

                Banks have had financial hardship assistance pre-covid19.

                Yes they did, but not at this mass scale, and not this easy to enable, and not without a ding on your credit history.

                NAB said today they have over 70k customers on loan pauses already.

                It started when landlords had been forced to house non-paying tenants.

                Well the tenants still owe the rent if they don't pay, just can't get kicked out :)

                • @JimmyF:

                  Yes they did, but not at this mass scale, and not this easy to enable, and not without a ding on your credit history.

                  NAB said today they have over 70k customers on loan pauses already.

                  Why not pause it then? Better to have money in your account now. Can always pay extra later on.

                  Well the tenants still owe the rent if they don't pay, just can't get kicked out :)

                  Non-paying-on-time tenants to be more specific :D

            • @JimmyF: I have a feeling the 'mort hols' will get extended, but the rental reprieves may not. Just my opinion, but the reason I think this is because a mortgage holiday is not really an attractive thing - you still accrue interest… But if its either that or forced sales then I think I know what avenue people will take - which allows things to carry on for another ~6 months - by which time there should be a light at the end of a COVID19 tunnel..

              I've been reading a few investor articles on buying and selling in downturns, and they're mostly on the side of 'if you can afford it now, buy it now - don't wait too long'.

              But its all just opinions and speculation at the end of the day!

              • +3

                @axloz:

                if you can afford it now, buy it now - don't wait too long

                Agreed, but the problem is the gov is playing this the system, so 6 month loan holidays are just pushing out these price drops, as people can just park the place for 6 months.

                If they do another round of allowing people to park loans, then the same issue will happen. Sure they are running up interest bills, but this is a 'no cost' to them, and when the market booms again, they'll make it all back.

                I'm in the market for a place, its really pissing me off with the gov playing with the housing market. Its a bubble, everyone knows it, covid is the best time to pop it or let the prices drop 20% or so.

                But instead we're going to have record high unemployment and record high loans, and no one paying them!?

                • @JimmyF: Yeah I see your point, and we're in the same boat really - ready to buy. The price drops we've seen over the past month have been substantial in some areas so we're happy that in areas where we thought we'd be only able to afford an apartment we can possibly afford a small house - but the houses are holding value better than apartments.

                  I inspected an apartment last week that was asking about $1M. Shoddy building though (recent build) and another one coming out of the ground just over the road from it, so we took a pretty quick pass on that. 2 days later the asking price dropped $100k. There's the 10%. It had been on the market for a month or more already..

                  I honestly think we'll come through the COVID scenario before prices drop more than about 10-15%, save for some really shoddy places (like the above apt..). There's already trial re-openings of beaches etc, and the curve is flattening. So unless we get a nasty second round with COVID I think the market will spark up again in the next month or so.. We're going to try and buy now rather than wait - but the right thing has to come up of course.

                  • @axloz:

                    and we're in the same boat really - ready to buy. The price drops we've seen over the past month have been substantial in some areas

                    I'm seeing 10% drops for some places, mostly for people who must sell now, normally already got something else, so need the cash to plug the debt hole.

                    Giving loan pauses after loan pauses is just keeping the bubble inflated. I own a place already, so will be caught up in the price drop as I'm not ready to sell at this point.

                    So I'm kinda in a catch 22, if I buy now at high prices, I'll be caught selling in the low point.

                    Looks like I'm shelving my relocation plans for 12 months or so.

                    • @JimmyF: The banks are not stupid, they will not want to mass foreclose, as this deepens the drop. The same happened during the GFC the number of stressed home owners then was significant. They carried the bad debt forward and borrowers then paid it back. Prices dropped during the GFC but not signification. Anyone expecting 40-50% drops is dreaming.

                      • @tomfool:

                        The banks are not stupid, they will not want to mass foreclose

                        I'm not talking 50% drops, most (including NAB 1/2 year report released yesterday) are talking 20-30% drops in house prices and honestly a bank doesn't give a crap about those sorts of drops, as most people start with a 20% deposit and will have built up some equity in the place, that if they sell at a 30% loss, its not the bank missing out.

                    • @JimmyF: Right now.. we can't say.. 10% drops based on what.. 10% of the volume.. It can't really be said that it's the actual price. As most people who wanted to sell probably will just hold if they can hold on to it (Which is quite easy considering banks are providing some level of "pause" and negative gearing for those who have jobs) etc etc.

                      Because of those factors the current prices are probably higher than what it actually is if everyone was forced to sell.

                      What I think is. Give it about 6-12 months. That's when what happened today will start to reflect the prices. I believe in certain "property" types i.e. 1/2bedroom apartments in the city/close to unis have dropped 25~35% already. And no one is buying them meaning the price is probably closer to 45-50%.

                      Remember guys… the price that's advertised is NOT the actual price. The actual price is what the market decides to buy it for.

                      And regarding property prices going up more. Tell me… How can it go up more than what it is today when people can only borrow up to 800-900k and right now.. OMG… the average median price for Sydney and Melbourne is.. what? 1.1M?? mmm, Strange, that seems like.. 900k + a 10% deposit? HUH.. so if prices were to go up.. how would that work.. Oh right we need an actual economy.. that grows.. OHH that means wages go up.. oh.. so Tell me, guys.. if wages have decreased. Rents have decreased and everything how will it go up?

                      I can say one thing… governments may try to prop up the market by encouraging foreign investors to buy property in Australia since they are printing money. And this is causing our forex to down.

                      What does that mean for all of us.. Oh those who aren't in the property market — Young people.. won't be able to afford it.. (but in saying this.. I think most foreign investors stopped investing in Aus awhile ago because of the HUGE bubble)

                      • @postform:

                        Right now.. we can't say.. 10% drops based on what.. 10% of the volume

                        We're not talking volume, we are talking house prices. In my area volume has dropped right off as people are seeing the market prices drop so changing their mind.

                        Remember guys… the price that's advertised is NOT the actual price. The actual price is what the market decides to buy it for.

                        Yes I agree, but agents are telling sellers to 'hold out' and banks and fluffing up the market by pausing the loan so removing pressure to sell.

                        So its a bit of a stale mate. A place I'm looking at, I've offered a fair price to reflect the next 6-12 months, but the seller is holding out for the 'good old times' and refuses to drop a single dollar off the price. So far the place has been to auction and passed in a few weeks ago, then straight up for sale, with all the bidders putting in offers, all rejected, so now its sitting on the market empty waiting for someone to buy it at top dollar price. The place needs a reno inside and out. The asking price the seller wants would be correct if it was reno'd inside and out, but its not.

                        So its always as simple as what the market decides if the seller has their head in the clouds.

                        In 3 months time when they come knocking on peoples doors who put offers in, they might find all those buys have gotten something else and the loan clock is ticking for them.

                • +1

                  @JimmyF: It will be interesting to see how the suggested changes to stamp duty will play out. More messing around with the housing market which makes it difficult to read the market no matter how good your due diligence.

                  Personally I think it will act to inflate prices due to bigger deposits. The governments appears it is willing to do anything to avoid the bubble bursting despite it being what is essentially required to address housing affordability in this country.

        • +1

          I'm seeing about 10% in my area (elite Inner West Sydney). When the seller has to take the market price, then those that would have sold for mid $2m in 2019 are now settling for low $2m.

          Example, saw a great house on a quiet leafy street close to Croydon station go for $2.6m last December. Then this year in late March a comparable house a few doors down had to settle for $2.3m. If I had the money I would absolutely have snapped that one up. Absolute bargain.

  • +1

    The Telegraph newspaper estimates the 2008 financial crisis cost 500,000 cancer deaths. A bit of food for thought to anyone who wants to keep the country closed.

    • -5

      agree. and this covid is mostly affecting old people. we the youngs shouldnt got into lockdown

      • -3

        As a respiratory infection covid targets the respiratory system of individuals. It does not target the elderly or the young. Those most affected will be anyone with poor respiratory systems weakened due to living primarily indoors in artificial ventilated environments. Just so happens the elderly tend to spend most of their time indoors stuck in nursing centres etc. That's why they are most at risk, their indoor lifestyle, got nothing to do with their age…

        • +3

          Age definitely does have a very significant impact on the outcomes of the virus because those who are older are known to have a reduced immune system functionality. Its a bit ridiculous that you would suggest otherwise

          • +1

            @worrierwan: in fact young people are dying of it. why is still unknown. this is unexpected.

            • +2

              @petry: It is unexpected but just because young people die from it does not preclude age from being a significant factor in disease outcome

              • -3

                @worrierwan: its designed to take out the elderly - the fact that it is doing more than that is of concern.

                it is exceeding its known parameters already..

    • +3

      Thankfully we live a country that has a robust healthcare system so those in financial stress can still access needed medical needs. I think this point will affect other countries, but for us in Australia, the borders closed shouldnt affect this statistic in a material way

      From an ABC article on this study affecting cancer:
      "For Spain and Britain, which provided universal healthcare, no additional deaths were calculated."

    • Is cancer contagious?

      • Yes, all problems are contagious and spread.

    • I watched 'the big short' the other day, at one point one of the guys says 'for every 1% increase in unemployment, there are an extra 40,000 suicides per year' (in America).

      Not sure if its accurate (the movie might have made it up), but it does make you think.

      • +2

        That's close to the number of suicides for an entire year in the US, so obviously a massive exaggeration. Having said that, job loss is a risk factor.

  • +27

    I'm being ultra selfish but my life is perfectly fine during these restrictions. I feel bad for my friends who are truly struggling to deal with the social isolation and lack of ways to fill their personal time. Meanwhile, I'm loving not having to make excuses not to go out any more, and I get to work from home everyday which means I save at least 3 hours a day and hundreds of dollars a week in tolls. My health is improving immensely as well as I have more time to myself to work out, eat right, and relax.

    Tbh, I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the restrictions aren't lifted and this goes on. I've been saving for a property for a while now so this may be a good time to start looking into the market.

    • -1

      Hope it goes on til 2021 you all have had your job for two long, let others have ago now.

    • See my reply just above on this topic - we're in the same boat and the prices are coming down a little. But "a little" in a Sydney market is a lot!

    • Hundreds of dollars in tolls… I want your job if you can pay that ;-) Much the same. Love the empty roads etc. Wish I could work from home but unable to.

      • "Hundreds" isn't technically correct as I only spent 1 hundred (singular) on tolls every week. To be exact, it's $102. It's only a 30km trip either way but it's worth every penny, I can't deal with traffic lights in the morning. Don't think you need to a CEO to afford it.

    • +3

      Same. I love spending time at home. My attitude has always been 'I have filled my home with all my favourite things, hobbies and comforts. I pay a lot of money for my home. Why wouldn't I make the most of this ideal environment by spending lots of my free time there?'. So covid hasn't changed a lot for me, apart from being able to sleep in a bit longer because I don't have to put on pointless business attire and commute to work. Definitely wouldn't wish to prolong it, but I'm doing perfectly fine in the meantime.

  • +1

    My prediction is in 2022. The Rest of this year and next year the government is going to try a lot s of things to keep it going for the majority of people. Going by whats happening the house prices technically should drop to 20% but it cannot be predicated as LNP crew traditionally have vetted interest in real estate.

  • China has 1/4 of the worlds population and is now having basically zero new cases apart from a few inbound travellers. Our curve is heaps better than theirs so we will be back to normal in no time.

    • +26

      Lol

    • +1

      My city in central China (Zhengzhou) is basically back to normal with a population of about 10 million. Cinemas are still closed with no confirmed date of reopening, schools are still closed but will start from early May. Apart from that other businesses have almost been completely reopened with no new cases. I don't speak for other parts of China but my Mom used to be a nurse at a local hospital for more t theyhan ten years and I have two cousins who are also nurses now they all say there's no more new cases in my city.

      • +14

        My city is wuhan and I've never heard of this virus.

        • Agree

          • @[Deactivated]: Its a virus that affects your computer when you read too many forum posts :D

            • @axloz: Disagree with this.

        • yes I've heard that Sydney is the same

      • +2

        Yeah Confirmed with my Chinese friends on discord, they have family back home. And businesses there are reopening gradually. Dun mind the negs. Plenty of sinophobic people here

        • +2

          thats true. my uncle is a high rank government official in china. He told me the west created the virus and blame us Chinese for it.

          • @michaelTito: strong troll you are. Time to stop drinking the kool-aid.

        • Just rewatched some tianamen videos from 1989. Not sinophobic here, but definitely not a supporter of the CCP.

    • +1

      dont fall for their propaganda

      • +1

        How do you know it's not the fact?

        • Because science.

        • The Chinese mail system was a good indicator back in January/February when they were pretending lockdown was extended Chinese New Year celebrations. Things are still majorly broken over there. Packages are just getting shifted from storage facility to storage facility, banked up due to closures.

          • @[Deactivated]: Mate, the mail system is working fine there. Source: I just bought something for my family last week from Taobao and it got delivered within 3 days.

            Not sure where you got your information from, but I can assure you it's either outdated or just a simple made up lie.

            • @tidie: Lol, your items are personal items TO China (from low-risk Australia) and not exported FROM Shenzhen or Dongguan, China's major export centres. It shows the lengths the disinformation campaign is if you think the closure of most airline passenger aircraft has NOT affected outbound shipping. Do you stand by China's claim of ~4600 total covid deaths? Two month shutdown of the whole Guangdong province over how many deaths? 120 outside Hubei declared on March 20th? Have a look at the reciprocal exploitation shipping rates from China. Gone.

              It's funny that you use an importation anecdote when China's economy relies on export.

              • @[Deactivated]: Did I say I bought it from Taobao?
                It's a China internal freight.

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