Are Tesla Price Drops Coming?

So I’m in the market for a new car and I’m considering EVs as my first choice.

I saw this - Tesla shares tank after doubling U.S. discounts on key models and wondered if people think Tesla price drops will be coming down under as well? Given it’s been a good 12 months of price increases, maybe it’s time to drop?

I do note BYD recently upped their Atto prices by 3800 bucks which was a shock given it’s only been on market for less than a year.

Poll Options

  • 85
    Tesla prices will drop
  • 291
    Tesla won’t drop prices
  • 47
    Tesla will only increase in price

Comments

  • +10

    Not unless sales drop, or they have a surplus?

      • +9

        Personally I think Toyota's much more versatile hybrid technology is much better suited to Australia. Thats why taxi drivers and Uber drivers are using them in preference to EVs.

        Not a fair example. They use hybrids because they are a good price and use less fuel than regular ICE. EVs haven’t been around long enough in Aus to see wether they’ll work or not (they will, and do overseas)

          • +4

            @HeWhoKnows: But taxi driving is a specific use case. Most people aren't driving 8 hours at a time. I presume most taxis would cover more distance than typical EV range in a day.

            That said, it's definitely possible to do with EVs, you just need the infrastructure for it.

            • +1

              @nigel deborah: Supercharging or hot swap batteries.

              That said, I think they will be the last to adopt electric but id be suprised if news sales arent dominated by hybrids given fuel costs.

          • +2

            @HeWhoKnows:

            You cant argue with people like Taxi drivers and Uber drivers that rely on driving cars all day every day and thier choice is a Toyota Hybrid or a Petrol car over a Tesla EV or any other EV.

            If EVs were readily available like hybrid currently are, and Hybrid was still the no1 choice you could make that point, but it’s not the case.

            Plenty of other countries using EVs for taxi services - because cheap to run and less to go wrong in the drivetrain.

            • -3

              @Euphemistic: Good claim

              Now pls provide the examples/evidence

              But also compare thier infrastructure compared with ours

              Nothing is always as simple as it looks

              There are reasons for everything

              hence the points I have made

          • +2

            @HeWhoKnows:

            You cant argue with people like Taxi drivers and Uber drivers that rely on driving cars all day every day

            That's true, and they use electric.

            Model S taxis are already operating in Norway.
            The Netherlands' Taxi Electric will add the Model S to its existing fleet of Nissan Leaf electric taxis
            https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1095153_tesla-taxis-in-…

            In Australia.

            This grey, long-range Model 3, looks to be the first actual Taxi. 13 CABS offer a Silver Service tier that is their luxury branding
            https://techau.com.au/is-this-model-3-australias-first-offic…

            In New York

            RIDING IN THE FIRST NYC YELLOW TESLA TAXICAB!
            https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ShGyRzsETw8

        • -6

          Please stop buying ev. This is not the future. Battery pollutes as well. It’s not a solution to fuel. What’s the point of replacing one pollutant with a new pollutant.

          • +1

            @unhuman: Because it's cheaper than paying for fuel. Noone cares if electricity is still dirty, people put their wallet first.

            Btw, even the dirtiest coal power plant is far more efficient at producing energy than a petrol engine.

            • +1

              @greatlamp: I wouldnt agree with that

              Its a huge upfront cost for an EV
              So takes many years for payback of this significantly higher cost.
              And with electricity prices going through the roof soon there wont be that much of a saving

              So if the decision is really about saving money, a petrol driven car or more so a hybrid wins hands down every day of the week

            • @greatlamp:

              Because it's cheaper than paying for fuel.

              Not necessarily. Paying $30K extra upfront in today's money to save $26K over 10 year (@ $50 a week average and I'm not even counting electricity cost for charging the EV) is not really cheap. Also, if you have to change the battery pack after 10 years then forget about any saving you made in 10 year.

          • +3

            @unhuman: It’s true that mining for battery ingredients isn’t very clean but neither is drilling for single use oil that emits pollutants as it burns. Batteries can be reused many times by recharging. Modern battery factories are being built with recycling plants to recover materials. Batteries are over 90% recyclable.

            True, a better option is not to use cars for transport, but that’s not gonna happen.

          • @unhuman: Correct!

            Mining for Lithium and Cobolt is incredibly environmentally damaging

            As is the production of EV batteries.

            Takes 8 to 10 years before they even become carbon neutral!

            • @HeWhoKnows: No it doesn’t. Only takes a couple of years of driving an EV to break even carbon wise compared to a new ICE.

      • +6

        More so that Tesla is still losing money on every car they produce.
        Absolutely incorrect, Tesla make industry leading margins on their vehicles (without subsidies), their energy business has struggled with profitability

      • +2

        Popularity isnt a good measure of a good choice.

        Take drugs, a lot of people take drugs and even more drink themselves stupid, both arent smart choices.

        Another dumb choice is people commuting for hours every day, and whats even dumber is they dont get paid for losing what amounts to over a day a week in hours.

        • +2

          Yeah, its always amazed me how people go out of their way to go to work, just to eat feed and clothe themselves and family.
          What are they thinking?

          • @Plumbob: I can’t these idiots don’t buy house 10 mins from the city - what are they, poor?

        • +2

          Another dumb choice is people commuting for hours every day, and whats even dumber is they dont get paid for losing what amounts to over a day a week in hours.

          It’s a legacy of the car culture, not a dumb choice per se. We do it because 50 years ago it was an acceptable ideal: suburban block, father off to work all day (and more), Sunday drives etc. we’ve built our lifestyle around these factors as collectively dumb as it is.

          Public transport has suffered, cycling is all but forgotten etc.

      • +6

        More so that Tesla is still losing money on every car they produce

        How so if they are making a profit since 2020

        • +1

          Well he didn't research anything else that he wrote..

          • +1

            @Aureus: Are you saying that you can research before arguing an idea?

            Whoa.. an absolute mad lad.

      • +7

        You do know the wind still blows at night right?

        • +6

          No no no, everyone knows the wind goes to bed at sundown and doesn't start up again until sunrise.
          Unlike those super reliable coal powered power stations that never break down 🙄

      • +2

        More so that Tesla is still losing money on every car they produce.

        Wat. They make 8 times more profit per car than Toyota:

        https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Tesla-earns-8-t…

        The Toyota group sold 2.62 million vehicles in the quarter, 7.6 times as many as Tesla's 344,000. But its net profit per vehicle came to around $1,200 — just one-eighth of Tesla's $9,570. Tesla is believed to lead the industry in terms of net profit per vehicle sold, even ahead of players like Mercedes-Benz.

      • +1

        Marketing. Sorry but every single thing I buy today, Nikes, Bananas, Cars, fuel, houses.. are in demand and apparent supply issues. Until you pay more, then there’s heaps.

        You wait and get.

      • +9

        PS Anthony Albanese recently said you will be able to charge your EV for FREE "overnight" using your solar panels (LOL, LOL, LOL LOL…sorry couldnt help myself)

        Good luck doing that Albo!

        Yeah… believe it or not, electricity from solar can be stored! Yep, that's right! The sun can go down and you can still power things using solar! Amazing right?

        • +3

          Tesla should look at building some kind of battery wall to capture solar power generated during the day.

    • +1

      Tesla recently reduced prices in the US on a short term basis. They often do that to move excess stock and manipulate the quarterly sales figures.

      It won't affect the prices in Australia. Right now, due to the tariff situation, Tesla factories in the US are supplying the North American market. The Tesla factory in Germany is supplying the European market and the Tesla factory in Shanghai is supplying the Chinese market and other countries like Australia.

      The production lines in Shanghai need to be reconfigured to produce right hand drive vehicles for ANZ. They only do this for a few weeks every quarter.

      My guess is that for prices will drop in Australia, first demand will need to drop in China for a sustained period, so they switch to making more RHD vehicles and second the factory need to be operating at high capacity. Reuters recently reported that the Shanghai factory had closed due to the current wave of COVID in China.

  • +19

    With wait times in Australia of close to a year why on earth would they start discounting?

    • +7

      Model 3/Y estimated delivery Feb-May 23.

      • +1

        They say that now but when Feb comes around, they will change it to Jun-Sep 23.

        • +12

          Wait lists will be a thing of the past next year. Peoples deliveries will come up and they’ll can them as their mortgage rate is going from from 2% to 5.5% at the same time.

      • -1

        Lmao, feel bad for people shopping on their website thinking they can get one that quick. It's a 12-14mth game

        • +2

          They have some Model 3’s in stock right now, brand new, available for delivery. Lmao.

    • +3

      Not anymore! Got an email from Tesla two weeks ago that Tesla 3 local stock is available now.
      https://imgur.com/a/oTJrnWH

  • +25

    With all the better EV's coming out, why would you consider a Tesla with all the build issues they still have?

    • +1

      Because there are more Tesla public chargers around than non-Tesla public chargers?

      • Are you sure, foxcharge are getting better day by day

      • -1

        Australia mandates the large ugly plug with separate rubber grommet to be removed for DC charging.
        No future planning for efficiency.

        • As in Type 2?

          Which is far better than other plugs?

    • +9

      I thought the build issues were a thing of the past?

      I honestly would rather other brands, but there isn’t a whole lot of choice right now, I’m keen on seeing what BYD brings in next year. But given their recent price increase I feel like they might not be as competitive as I hope.

      Also, I think many car brands base their pricing around what’s currently on market. So if Tesla, being the incumbent EV brand has a price, they’ll need to price under it if they want to be a discount brand or if they want to be a lux brand price over it. So I see Tesla currently as the price setter.

      • quality issues being a "thing of the past" is some parroted info repeated by the owners or fanatics.

        This doesn't look like a thing of the past

        • +8

          Look American built ones (from Fremont at least) still have issues. Australia is getting models only made in Shanghai right now and these quality ‘issues’ aren’t there. I believe the mis information on build quality is just being parroted by people like yourself with little to no insight at all. Have you ever been in one / driven one…

          • @JackFrost: Sounds like you agree with his insight, if you admit that the standard of quality globally is not consistent.

            • +2

              @Assburg: Seems like he is willing to gamble that Australia gets the better deal everytime.

        • And build quality issues just seems to be 99% of people who have never owned one.

          I've had 3 and all perfect. 1 was american and 2 from shanghai (a m3lr and a m3p and a y)

    • +6

      There have been "better" EVs coming for the entire 7 years I have had the pleasure of driving my Model S. Still yet to see one that is actually better.

      Having test driven many of the competitors to Tesla, none can come close to the sublime driving experience I still get from mine.

      • +8

        close to the sublime driving experience I still get from mine.

        You can't ignore the fact that Tesla has had major QC issues, even if you got one that didn't have the issues.

        Also I've never heard anyone describe a car (other than a Ferrari, Pagani etc) as "sublime" when talking about something like a Tesla. haha

      • +1

        Tried the Polestar 2? Seems a pretty close competitor for the Model 3.

      • You must be one of the lucky few if you're still enjoying your "sublime" out-of-warranty Model S without many issues (and soon to be out of its 8-year battery & drivetrain warranty too). I had quite a ride with warranty repairs with both of my Performance Model S Teslas. I still enjoyed the "sublime" quiet fuss-free acceleration nonetheless, but wouldn't keep them beyond their 4-year warranty period.

        • That's interesting, I always thought one of the big selling points of EVs was they are much simpler and less points of failure.

          What were the "many" warranty repairs needed on yours? Are we talking just small things like overly large panel gaps, or things that put the vehicle out of action?

          • +1

            @Binchicken22: Main battery, rear motor, main touchscreen, onboard charger, MCU, door handles, suspension parts, LED headlight, charging port door, plus various other faults that were shared between the two vehicles.

      • -3

        Sitting in traffic going 5 - 10 km an hour is sublime ?

        What do you call sitting traffic 4 hours a day ?

        Excellent ?

      • +1

        Isn’t the Porsche Taycan the same price as the Model S?

        I’d take that over the Model S.

        I will admit that the Model S broke new ground when first released but was very expensive for what it was, especially considering the build quality.

        Tesla has done well to get the price of the Model 3 down and improved build quality (but still below other cars).

    • +2

      In the marker for an EV, but do not believe there is any competition that is even close.
      Polestar make great EVs but not in the same price range.
      BYD decent product, but the technology is poor\buggy.
      VW is just junk, the software does not work, really should be recalled.
      Hyundai, not bad for a car, but you don't get the Tesla tech, so fine for anyone that just wants to standard car (which may be most of the population). But for this money I expect some decent tech.
      Model Y is the saftest car ever tested, and by a decent margin.
      Any competition I missed, that I should check out, considering an EV second half of the year?

      • +2

        Kia, Hyundai and Polestar are the really the only competitors to Tesla that are good.

        If you care for very good software then it’s only Tesla (maybe Polestar with AA) that are worth considering.

        The new Kia EV6 has pretty robust software but Australia doesn’t even have access to the Kia connect app in Australia (ie no app companion to manage your ev)

        • Kia and Hyundai can't actually produce anything (EVs). The numbers are tiny compared to Tesla

    • +2

      What the #$# you talking about? The China made Tesla's coming to to Aus have no build issues. You may get a few that are lemons but that is common across all makes. Nothing to report there as out of ordinary.

    • +2

      The build issues don't exist anymore unless your Tesla is US built. Aussie Tesla's don't come from the US anymore, my Shanghai built 2021 M3 is every bit as good as my wife's Japanese built 2021 RAV4 hybrid.

      German built VW ID.3/4's on the other hand…

    • +2

      I have test driven almost all the available EV brands in Australia. I bought a different EV (than tesla) since I had a bigger budget. To be honest with you, Tesla would be my last choice. Yes, technologically, it is advanced but not as a whole car. I would rather buy a polestar 2 than a tesla 3.

  • +14

    Are Tesla Price Drops Coming?

    It's already down 67% this year.

    • +1

      Hehe, I’m well aware of that. I have a little bet with a fellow ozbargainer that I’m almost certain to win with regard to its stock price

  • +7

    I recall when Tesla used to say that they wanted to make electric motoring affordable for everybody. But now I think they position themselves at the higher end of the market.

    • I don't think its fair to point the finger at Tesla.

      I recall when EVERYONE promoting EVs said the prices would fall steadily because of falling battery prices. And what has happened, battery prices are going up because the demand exceeds supply.

      A lot of people have called for large amounts of taxpayers money to go to subsidising the purchase price of EVs. But that doesn't increase the sales of EVs, it is limited by how many are manufactured, and that is limited by batteries. So the only people who benefit from subsidies are those well off enough to afford a high-priced EV. What would get more EVs onto our roads is if those subsidies were directed to building a battery plant that used Australian raw materials. and making a deal with an EV manufacturer to use those batteries to build cars to supply the Australian market.

      • +2

        How come my lithium stock hadn't been a 10 bagger then??

        • +2

          Because we are at the cusp of a global recession - all resources are tarred with the same brush.

        • Lithium was only ever projected to be in short supply. In the future. Production always meet demand.

          Then new lithium mining tech was invented in/for Australia. Australia became the global major producer, flooding the market.

          Lithium has been in over supply since 2019 and is predicted to remains that way until 2025.

      • Why would battery prices drop when the most significant factor in a batteries cost is the cost of OIL for the mines that extract and transport the raw resources ?

      • +1

        A lot of people have called for large amounts of taxpayers money to go to subsidising the purchase price of EVs. But that doesn't increase the sales of EVs, it is limited by how many are manufactured, and that is limited by batteries.

        A lot of people are stupid.

        There are many examples of government giving money to causes and the prices GOING UP.

        Look at child care, they see families paying and then the government also contributing, so they end up taking both.

        Want another example ?

        What would get more EVs onto our roads is if those subsidies were directed to building a battery plant that used Australian raw materials. and making a deal with an EV manufacturer to use those batteries to build cars to supply the Australian market.

        Getting MORE of any car onto the roads is not a goal anyone should want to aim for.

        Driving in all forms is STUPID and a WASTE of TIME and RESOURCES of all kinds. Encouraging people to drive the same or MORE is stupid.

  • +3

    Why would they drop prices when there's a wait list with current prices?

    • +1

      Seems like in other countries they’re desperate to offload excess stock

    • +2

      At least for Model 3 they are in stock and have zero mark up. I think one is even a couple dollar cheaper than order price.

  • +2

    Where are all the Tesla shills now that $TSLA stock is tanking?

    Prices will only go up because stock price is coming down. They need a way to make up the shortfall somewhere, so expect massive round of lay offs and a price increase on new vehicles.

    • +1

      I’m just sad even BYD are raising their prices

      • +4

        Demand is outstripping supply. A big driver of this are the flippers who bought the car and immediately put it up for sale for $10~20,000 more than a new one and people snapped them up. I know a guy who sold his spot in the line for a BYD for $5k.

        As soon as people start flipping cars and manufacturers see it, they “re-evaluate” their pricing so they too can take a bite of that “well, they seem to be willing to pay 10~20% more, so let’s jack our RRP.”

      • +1

        They need to remove the "Build your dream" stuff at the back, I lose interest in the Atto every time I see it.

      • They have to rise the price due to lithium pricing peaking past few months. In China it was only around $1K AUD rise. that price increase of $3600 by EVD is pretty excessive for the ATTO 3 though. But if you look at the recent long reviews of the ATTO3 by Bjørn Nyland its a excellent car.

        • It’s likely BYD priced low to get some initial sales interest. Now that consumers have got a few out there and demand is still high they’ve decided to increase prices.

    • +4

      I'm sure rektrading is still buying :)

      • +1

        I want that other dude that used to come into any Tesla related thread and carry on about how all the $TSLA shorters were morons and how Tesla stock is going to $1000 a share…

    • +4

      People have been saying for years now that Tesla stock was ridiculously overpriced. Even Elon himself said that. The only way that stock price was justified was if you believed that Tesla would absolutely dominate the world car industry for at least a decade which was never going to happen.

      The stock price is just the fanbois acquiring a bit of common sense - Tesla has kicked off the EV revolution and is a car company which will stay profitable for the foreseeable future, but it is not going to dominate the three biggest car markets (China, US and Europe). Some of the other guys are catching up with it and will continue to.

      I don't think it has any implications for Tesla car prices, which are obviously set by supply costs and retail demand, not the stock price.

      • +1

        Has Tesla actually turned a profit yet? I thought they were still going on hopes and dreams.

        • Yeah $20b USD from last 12 months alone.

          Just check out yourself on how many gigafactories operational / how many cars they're pumping out / how many cars sold , then you'll know the hopes and dreams are now cash cow.

          • @dcep: Twitter also has offices around the world, that doesnt make them profittable.

            • +1

              @CowFrogHorse: Are you suggesting Tesla committing fraud on publishing fake financial reports with their cashflow ?

              • @dcep: Care to quote my words that led you to believe that ?

                Beats me why you think Elon is your friend, has he invited you to his house for xmas or any weekend ?

                • @CowFrogHorse: Erm ? Because Tesla is posting profit on their financial reports ? Duh!

                  And you're suggesting otherwise ?

              • @Dogsrule: You need to learn how to read, i never once questioned or mentioned anything about Tesla profitability or any other financials.

                In fact my comment doesnt even mention Tesla or Elon, i know tricky go read for yourself.

                • @CowFrogHorse: I’ll make it easy for you - Tesla have lots of big factories and make lots of profit. By the way, the word is spelt ‘profitable’.

        • Yeah, around $9k USD per car, 8 times more than Toyota:

          https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Automobiles/Tesla-earns-8-t…

      • +2

        Current forward PE for Tesla is well under 28 …. whilst we got Costco at over 38.

        How ridiculously overpriced is Tesla.

    • Buying more Tesla stock. Why dont you put your money where your mouth is and short tesla?

  • I do feel they will remain constant/drop slightly. Although if they want to maintain their brand "prestige" their only choice is to restrict supply, but given their production lines are focussed on churning them out i don't think thats possible.

    However, they no longer run a monopoly on the EV market and their stranglehold is finally over.

    Used ones will finally drop, quite considerably.

    It's the whole demand supply curve finally catching up as other car manufacturers enter the market.

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