Why Would One Buy Conventional Car in Current Market Conditions??

LOzzyBoy1 on 30/03/2023 - 11:21

What i don't get is this..I know this is one more car purchasing thread..

But allow me to explain.

A) Inflation is still red hot, cost of living is through the roof. Affordabilitly of anything shinly is pretty low or none (unless you're born millinaire..)
B) There are almost no discounts on new cars from dealers due to low stock bla bla bla
C) EV market will be very big in couple of years time I believe. I know this is open for discussion and EV (Tesla etc.) are going to be game changer (at least I believe that..)

Given above reasons, why would someone think of buying brand new conventional fuel (diesel, petrol ) car?

I drive Sportage Kia and that too Diesel which I bough pre-covid and have been contemplating getting something bigger and at least hybrid electric vehicle. But due to multiple reasons I have been unable to get anything concrete done in this matter. I am pretty conservative and don't want to add car loan as getting car loan for new car doesn't sit well with me financially and that's main reason withholding me back for any car type. Yes if you have business with ABN etc. than that's different story. I try not to use my diesel car unless i really need to due to prohibitive diesel costs these days.

I really want nice 7 seater (Kluger Hybrid..??) but been unable to get anywhere due to multiple reasons stated above. Don't want to spend $70k on brand new car and that too through car loan. $50k may be yes, $70k..NO..

Or am I missing something altogether??

Automotive

Comments

  • GG57 on 30/03/2023 - 11:23
    +79

    Ok

    • SF3 on 30/03/2023 - 13:42
      +63

      Or am I missing something altogether??

      Money.

    • GrueHunter on 30/03/2023 - 22:01
      +25

      seriously what did I just read

      • rumblytangara on 31/03/2023 - 13:30
        +11

        L users posting up contentious and badly hashed out arguments.

        I've been on this forum only a couple of months, but I'm seeing a pattern here.

      • Sinnerator on 02/04/2023 - 10:17

        Someone's homelab AI wrote that, points for effort tho.

  • Zapwap on 30/03/2023 - 11:27

    Give 4 to 5 years and you will see how difficult it will be to get an ICE

    • Mechz on 30/03/2023 - 12:40
      +25

      Try 10. Plenty of markets that won't move for quite some time. Eg India.

      • Zapwap on 31/03/2023 - 11:14
        +1

        Yes, Indian market could take a while may be 10-15 more years but i was talking about Australian market and the rate at which it is adapting to EVs, PHEVs etc. I speculate 5 years from now and we will see a decline ICE vehicles' production, I wasn't referring to ICE vehicles' extinction

        • Mechz on 31/03/2023 - 11:27
          +3

          Still 10 years away IMO. A lot of infrastructure change has to happen to make this crappy island traversable without proper 'charge' planning like you have to do now.

          • GG57 on 31/03/2023 - 11:50
            -3

            @Mechz:

            … make this crappy island…

            Not happy here?

          • Zapwap on 31/03/2023 - 12:06

            @Mechz:

            crappy island

            Crappy policies or political decisions sometimes may be.
            Island is great as it was.

          • Dsiee on 01/04/2023 - 11:13
            +1

            @Mechz: Eh, not really. The infrastructure can improve for sure, but most people don't travel that far and 500km range is fine if a recharge is only 30 minutes. After that long driving you should have a decent break anyway. The good thing is we only have a few major cities so we only need fast charge infra on those main routes. Charging for apartments needs to be solved, but it isn't insurmountable by any means. The load on the grid argument is rather uninformed; it isn't as big as it is made out to be and has many solutions.

      • srprd on 31/03/2023 - 13:26
        +2

        you underestimate india's speed of acceptance and adoption of new technologies… There is a huge buzz in india for electric vehicles. Also, in India there are more 2 wheelers and electric scooters (like OLA S1) are getting quite popular there.

        • goonsta on 31/03/2023 - 14:27
          +2

          You're overestimating india's ability to deliver power to consumers right now. 10-15 year time frames are more reasonable for broader adoption, it's not just a question of the vehicles but the entire infrastructure required to support it.

      • frewer on 31/03/2023 - 17:05
        -1

        They needs time to mine Cobalt, timeeeee … a pair of hand can only mine X amount daily

        • Dsiee on 01/04/2023 - 11:18
          +3

          Most of them don't use cobalt anyway. LiFePO4 is safer, cheaper, and cleaner.

      • dealsucker on 02/04/2023 - 09:50
        -1

        Indian market is irrelevant unless you are talking about cheaply made, unsafe hatchbacks which dont really have a market anywhere else in the developed world.

    • dcep on 30/03/2023 - 12:54
      +1

      Toyota has no plan to go full EV.

      • payless69 on 31/03/2023 - 10:16
        +2

        Toyoda San just quit!
        Newbie is now trying to make up for lost time!

      • skillet on 31/03/2023 - 21:38

        Mazda?

        • Harold Halfprice on 01/04/2023 - 10:39
          +1

          Mazda's behind the curve in the EV game. They've been focusing on making combustion more efficient with their skyactive technology - and they have been. But their EV game is pretty weak.

          They have one full EV model - the MX-30 Electric and they are literally unsellable. They sit in dealerships as demos gathering dust. Grossly overpriced, terrible range (they don't even hit 200kms real world) and a bit loud for an EV.

    • Stopback on 30/03/2023 - 12:58
      -2

      As difficult to get a gas powered car

    • ripesashimi on 30/03/2023 - 15:25
      -1

      Highly doubt that, maybe 10-20% more difficult at most.

    • Hackney on 31/03/2023 - 07:21

      @Zapwap.Garbage.

    • 2esc on 31/03/2023 - 08:43

      Maybe closer to 20 and people will be hanging onto ICE longer

    • R4 on 31/03/2023 - 15:16
      -1

      15 years. The EU is rowing back on their proposed ban on ICE from 2035 - mainly thanks to the German car industry.

    • skillet on 31/03/2023 - 21:38
      +3

      There are alot of apartments with cars and no chargers. I dont know how the utilities is going to handle apartments with every car park equipped with chargers.

  • Muzeeb on 30/03/2023 - 11:28
    +6

    Yes

    No

    Maybe (I think)

  • Seraphin7 on 30/03/2023 - 11:34

    It's unclear.

    • OzzyBoy1 on 30/03/2023 - 11:46
      -4

      What's unclear? Can you elaborate

      • Kangal on 30/03/2023 - 20:06
        +13

        You need the B-EV to increase in quality, and proven track-record.
        You need a big network of Super-Fast-Charging networks.
        You need prices of the B-EVs to become competitive with ICE-Vs.
        You need a big expansion of Lithium and Rare metals mining.
        You need electricity costs to fall, or stay the same, or not increase much.
        You need Solar Panels and Home-Battery to become mainstream.

        …all these factors affect the B-EV market.
        You could "brute force" it by giving subsidies to B-EVs or increasing Tax on ICE-V, or both. Or even more drastically, ban ICE-Vs unless specific permits.

        Otherwise, you might actually see the rise of Hybrids. Something with a "medium" battery size and small eMotor which handles the inefficient transport (0kph - 60kph), and an ICE-V which handles the smoother, higher, efficient speeds. With regenerative braking and Fuel Generator operation, you can relieve range anxiety, and make a decent headway into efficiency without the huge material requirements of B-EVs. Or just see B-EVs dominate the city life, while ICE-Vs dominate the rural life, and a blend of the two everywhere else.

        What do I think?
        I think B-EVs will overtake ICE-Vs. They can be built better. The material costs will come down in the next 10 years. Transition for mainstream will really start then. Electricity prices will skyrocket. Home Battery and Solar Panels will relieve some of that sting. Much worse is that Fuel prices will skyrocket even higher since it's not a free-market commodity (heavily regulated by OPEC, then regulated further by the government). Developed nations will transition first. Developing nations will continue to use cheaper ICE-Vs many many years on, they will foot the bill for Developed Nations, by buying our fossil fuels. Other events in the world, possibly political, will distract people from the transition and happenings. Just like some people didn't notice the transition from Symbian to Android with the happenings of the Floods in Pakistan, Chile Earthquake, Fukushima Disaster, Mexico Oil Spill, Bin Laden's death, Financial Crisis, Occupy Wall Street.

        • 0031nek on 30/03/2023 - 23:17
          +2

          and may i add something, in 10-15yrs time we will be having a serious old solar panels issue i.e recycling disposing etc due to the reduced efficiency of those panel on our roof, installed en-mass last 5yrs.. and we will be looking at B-EV from a different perspective then.

          • Jackson on 31/03/2023 - 15:52
            +1

            @0031nek: no we won't, there's solar panels that have been in place 40 years and still work fine, albeit make a bit less energy. The only reason panels get replaced in this market is because installers only want to sell new complete systems so they can get the subsidy from the government, so they tell people to rip out their old one and chuck it out

            • Kangal on 31/03/2023 - 21:50

              @Jackson: I wouldn't say 40 years, but you're not wrong. Solar Panels which are dated for 5-10 years lifetime generally work for 15-30 years, with some light maintenance.

              Home Batteries?
              That's a different deal. We don't have recycling for lithium, not the way that you might be thinking. But this will be adopted in the next 10-20 years.

              Other aspect is we build better batteries. Even the cutting edge stuff isn't that great. It just needs more funding and time. Same goes for Hydrogen and Biofuels. Whilst Nuclear and Fossil Fuels have decent amount of technology, they haven't progressed too much in the last 50 years.

              If humanity by sheer dumb luck managed to solve all these problems, and even make it to Proxima Centauri, and found a new Earth that's perfect…. I'm losing hope that they would be responsible and not destroy that ecosystem beyond recognition.

              • Jackson on 31/03/2023 - 23:45

                @Kangal: I haven't heard of any panels with less than 25 year warranty since subsidies were brought in widely. On the batteries side, they have already hit production for sodium batteries, no lithium and no cobalt and aluminium conductors, so altogether much easier to recycle.

  • dasher86 on 30/03/2023 - 11:39
    +5

    Do you really need a 7 seater?

      • brendanm on 30/03/2023 - 12:47
        +22

        That sounds like 4 seats needed if there fe two adults in the front, unless my math is hazy.

        • Yummy on 30/03/2023 - 12:51
          +6

          One daddy, 2 mommys

        • smartazz104 on 30/03/2023 - 15:01

          And the dog will sit in whose lap?

          • brendanm on 30/03/2023 - 16:06

            @smartazz104: Dogs don't need a seat, it goes in the back. Even still, there is one seat remaining in a 5 seater vehicle, if only 4 seats are occupied.

            • Yummy on 30/03/2023 - 17:01
              +4

              @brendanm: 1 x German shepherd = 10x chihuahua
              Size wise.

              The doggo gets 3 seats or else you gtfo hooman. ^_^;

              • brendanm on 30/03/2023 - 17:06

                @Yummy: Then it goes in the back. Not hard.

              • brad1-8tsi on 30/03/2023 - 18:17

                @Yummy: We fit 2x standard poodles and a maltese across the back seat of our 2000 Mazda 323. Dogs are pack animals and will find room.

                • WhyAmICommenting on 30/03/2023 - 18:54

                  @brad1-8tsi: Poor Maltese!

                  Edit: Oh, I was thinking you meant boot

                • CocaKoala on 01/04/2023 - 08:38
                  +2

                  @brad1-8tsi:

                  Dogs are pack animals

                  Thank you. I'm going to have our Greyhound pack our luggage for our next road trip.

                • Antikythera on 02/04/2023 - 01:21

                  @brad1-8tsi: we fit 8 kids under 15y.o. in the back seat of dads chev.
                  dad, mum and a bassinet with the baby in the front bench seat.

            • I like freestuff on 01/04/2023 - 19:43
              +1

              @brendanm: And then no space for bags. Our cx5 is absolutely packed to the hilt with just two kids going to the in laws for a few days.

              • brendanm on 02/04/2023 - 08:01
                +2

                @I like freestuff: That's because you purchased a small car, not because it's a 5 seater.

              • brad1-8tsi on 03/04/2023 - 18:07

                @I like freestuff: CX5 isn't a big car.

                I think SUVs aren't great packaging. I could fit more in the back of my Octavia hatch than I can in my Pajero Sport.

      • Adredocto on 30/03/2023 - 15:24
        +18

        Sardines on a train sounds like way more room than they normally get in a can

        • FiDad on 30/03/2023 - 16:38
          +1

          Yeah i am getting jealous of those Sardeines in a train

          • miwahni on 30/03/2023 - 23:17
            +1

            @FiDad: Is that like snakes on a plane?

        • gyrex on 31/03/2023 - 10:44
          +1

          Can someone do the maths on how many sardines fit into a standard train carriage?

  • Brian McGee on 30/03/2023 - 11:48
    +56

    The cheapest car is the one you already have.

    The most environmentally friendly car is the one you already have.

    Fuel based vehicles are going nowhere in the next 20-30 years as there is no 'fleet fuel economy' standards for importers. It will take at least this long to serve the current market (1 million car sales per year) to cycle through the current fleet. Why stress yourself about the electric utopia when going outside a metrolpolis into countryfied australia causes anxiety over 'will the 2 chargers at * insert city name * be online or working.

    And the more people that use electric cars will bring down the demand for petrol and it should get cheaper, diesel not so much as production can be allocated to aircraft fuel.

    • Franky23 on 30/03/2023 - 11:54
      +17

      This ^^ If the car you have is safe, reliable and serving it's purpose - keep it. The full environmental impacts of electric vehicles and lithium mining won't be realised for some time. Well kept diesel vehicles will be in demand in the near future in a country like Australia.

      • chuq on 30/03/2023 - 12:21
        -4

        While I agree with keeping your existing car a bit longer if you aren't sure, this:

        The full environmental impacts of electric vehicles and lithium mining won't be realised for some time.

        Is a load of rubbish. It is patently obvious to anyone who isn't a fossil fuel industry player that it's significantly better to mine 300 kg of lithium and other metals for a battery (which can be recycled at the end of it's life in 20-25 years) than to drill 30000 litres of oil to burn (which ends up floating through our atmosphere).

        • Bonsaichop on 30/03/2023 - 12:48
          +13

          What battery lasts 20-25 years? Your phone and laptop batteries sure don't which all are based around a lithium + metal combo. First generation Tesla's are going for next to nothing because of battery failures and they are not even a decade old. There is no way to recycle lithium batteries at present and the only processes focus on extracting graphene which is like recycling only the ink on paper.

          Lithium battery technology has been around for more than 40 years, yet there is no way to recycle them. Even lead acid batteries are easier to recycle and the moment anyone reads 'lead' they run to the hills in fear.

          • chuq on 30/03/2023 - 14:42
            -3

            @Bonsaichop: 10-15 years in a car, then the same again reused as stationary energy storage.

            You're parroting repeatedly disproven rubbish.

            • Bonsaichop on 30/03/2023 - 16:35
              +17

              @chuq: How exactly is the fact there is no way to recycle lithium batteries apart from what is above mentioned disproven rubbish?

              Reused as stationary energy storage? Where are they taking failed EV batteries and repacking them for stationery storage? You're living is some kind distorted reality where you only want to see your ideals and not understand the problems that need to be overcome.

              • [Deactivated] on 31/03/2023 - 08:43
                +1

                @Bonsaichop: You really are a breath of fresh air in this thread.

              • derrida derider on 01/04/2023 - 18:42

                @Bonsaichop: Because it is simply untrue. The only reason there's not much car lithium battery recycling (NOT "repacking") at the moment is because there are there aren't yet enough expired batteries around to make setting up a plant viable.

                Recycling a lithium EV is a doddle. You chop the whole car up into little bits (possibly under CO2 if you're afraid of fire) and use froth flotation or centrifugation to separate the ultra-light lithium from the other metals. Run the rest under the big electromagnet to separate out the steel bits to go into the arc furnace, and most of what's left is plastic or copper. Its pretty much the same as they do for old airliners built with Al-Li alloys.

                Yes, you are parroting repeatedly disproven rubbish.

        • dcep on 30/03/2023 - 12:59

          Go enjoy your coal-powered EV.

          • chuq on 30/03/2023 - 14:43
            -4

            @dcep: Sorry, my EV doesn't run on coal. Can you show me where in the car I put the coal in? I run off 100% renewables.

            • CurlCurl on 30/03/2023 - 17:24
              +4

              @chuq:

              I run off 100% renewables.

              Citation needed.

              • OZKap on 30/03/2023 - 17:32
                +3

                @CurlCurl:

                Citation needed.

                It came to me in a dream.

                • CurlCurl on 31/03/2023 - 08:31
                  -1

                  @OZKap:

                  It came to me in a dream.

                  That's the only way you would get it.

    • OzzyBoy1 on 30/03/2023 - 11:57
      -2

      So if I was to buy pre-owned petrol (not diesel) car for say $40k. Would it be silly move as many will favor EV in coming years over ICE vehicles?

      • Brian McGee on 30/03/2023 - 12:07
        +8

        How long is 'coming years'?

        If you plan on keeping the car for 10+ years then $4000 a year assuming no residual value is cheap motoring. Why care about what others think/want, buy what suits you now and in the coming 5-10 years for your current and/or growing family.

        My next car will probably be a PHEV just for purely selfish reasons. 50-60km of city driving on electric mode so no use of petrol (and everyone else can benefit from my non use of 6-8L of fuel and no tailpipe emissions). That'll be at least 60% of the driving it does, but then theres the backup of petrol and the comfort of knowing I can still go anywhere and get refueled in 5min, not waiting for infrastructure to be built or waiting 2-3 hours on my holidays just to get to a 'pump'.

        • OzzyBoy1 on 30/03/2023 - 12:24

          I usually keep same car for at least 6 to 7 years from track record. Could be longer. Space on my 5 seater for all of us including my GSD is the issue and motivation. Otherwise I could keep it for longer and not consider anything..

      • Franky23 on 30/03/2023 - 12:07
        +1

        There are many layers to this. For eg. BMW petrol vehicle - bloody stupid idea. A well priced, reliable, petrol vehicle that you will keep for many years would be fine. Can you get by with keeping your current vehicle though? Or is the new one just a 'nice to' have. I only ever purchase a car out of necessity - old one beyond repair, not serving it's purpose, safety etc.

        • OzzyBoy1 on 30/03/2023 - 12:20

          Yes that's what i have been trying to. Keep it as long as possible. It's not end of the world at the moment. My post is to understand sentiments and things going out there..

      • Brian McGee on 30/03/2023 - 13:13
        +11

        So is it more environmentally friendly to consume more resources and sent others to scrap or just use what you've got?

        no citation needed, just common sense.

          • Brian McGee on 30/03/2023 - 14:00
            +10

            @Stopback: Yes, your argument is invalid.

            You have to take into account not just the fuel used, but the overall supply chain. The car in your driveway is already made and there, the new one has to be build from iron ore that then gets made into steel, the copper for the wiring needs to be mined, plastics from crude oil need to be made and coloured, paint needs to be made, all shipped on diesel powered cargo ships, etc, etc.

            You cannot consume your way to sustainability.

            • Stopback on 30/03/2023 - 14:40
              -6

              @Brian McGee: Their modeling shows that, if cars had been kept on the road ten percent longer before being scrapped, the cumulative carbon footprint from cars would have decreased by 30.7 million tonnes, or one percent.

              Specifically, researchers find keeping older fuel efficient cars on the road longer reduces CO2 emissions significantly more than speeding up the global transition to green technology.

              Nice study, but i don't think you understand what it was trying to state. Its about replacing modern fuel efficent cars, with evs.

              But the study fails to account for the second hand market.

            • juki on 31/03/2023 - 09:50

              @Brian McGee: but you cant keep your car forever, my 600k prius is really becoming very tatty, that supply chain still needs to exist for spares and repairs, eventually replace them and without the scale economies a lot of the existing might go to waste

              In some uni paper i did years ago, the main idea was indeed to use what already exists rather than scrap it, mass production was not necessarily the devil (which is pretty much your point, i just dont want to be told i need to keep the prius even longer, the seats are terrible for tall people)

        • Euphemistic on 30/03/2023 - 13:58
          -1

          While perky true, current ICE vehicles will never be ‘clean’. the carbon cost of a new EV can be offset after a couple of years vs keeping an older ICE that continues to burn fossil fuels - even if the EV is ‘coal powered’

          Yes, it’s arguably ‘better’ to keep an older ICE than buy new because the energy cost of building a new car accounts for a fair bit of fuel consumption.

          • Brian McGee on 30/03/2023 - 14:02
            +5

            @Euphemistic: I'm not making, or trying not to make the whole ICE vs EV thing bigger than it is, but the environmental cost of making that new car is 100% more than the one you already have.

            • Euphemistic on 30/03/2023 - 15:57

              @Brian McGee: Except it’s not if you consider the ongoing pollution costs of ICE vs EV. If the item you are using uses no energy, or creates no pollutants then yes, the using the old is better than making a new one.

              But in the case of ICE vehicles they are so much less efficient than battery EVs that continuing to use an IVE for as little as 2 years will have the same energy costs of making a new EV and driving it for 2 years. ICE is around 30% energy efficient, EV is more than 80% efficient. ICE creates pollution every time you use it, EV can be 100% clean if powered by renewables.

              • afoveht on 30/03/2023 - 20:31

                @Euphemistic: Not sure where you're getting this 2 year period - am genuinely interested in seeing your sources.

                Otherwise… Costs usually track inputs fairly proportionately. Of course there are aberrations but they are not going to be out by an order of magnitude. A $50k car over 2 years is $25k /year. Fuel for an ICE will be maybe 20% of that. That's a big diff.

                Approaching 10 years seems a lot more reasonable.

                • Euphemistic on 30/03/2023 - 23:14

                  @afoveht: Energy/carbon cost not $ cost.

                  • afoveht on 30/03/2023 - 23:20

                    @Euphemistic: They are usually approximately proportional.

                    But please:

                    Not sure where you're getting this 2 year period - am genuinely interested in seeing your sources.

                    • Euphemistic on 30/03/2023 - 23:35
                      +1

                      @afoveht: https://youtu.be/L2IKCdnzl5k

                      From an environmental standpoint if you are going to continue to use a car for more than a couple of years, you are better off buying a new EV. If you are going to stop driving/owning a car in a few years you might be better off keeping the current vehicle.

                      If you start doing purely financial sums, I’m sure the payback period of EVs is much longer than a couple of years - unless you get 100% of your sparks for free via solar etc.

                      • afoveht on 31/03/2023 - 00:03
                        +1

                        @Euphemistic: Thanks for the link. Pretty informative. However Tesla's own manufacturing phase emissions calcs @ 2m:37s in that video assume a life of 200k miles = 360000km. That's 18 years of average driving in Aus. IMO those figures are a bit contrived. Probably makes sense for cabs or other high use cases, not so much for the standard Joe.

                        Not only that, the US energy source mix is pretty different from ours. Makes the case even worse here. Admittedly we are getting better at a seemingly accelerating rate.

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