Tropical Cyclone Alfred SE Queensland and Northern NSW

morse on 03/03/2025 - 12:28
Last edited 06/03/2025 - 18:29

QLD Disaster dashboard including links to local dashboard
https://www.disaster.qld.gov.au/tropical-cyclone-Alfred

For anyone who lives here or visiting:
- Predicted path http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
- Queensland warnings http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/
- road closures https://qldtraffic.qld.gov.au/

Thanks to @BewareOfTheDog
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_radio_station_callsi…
Here is a list of Radio stations from the ABC News, just now:-
* Brisbane 612AM
* Gold Coast 91.7FM
* Sunshine Coast 90.3FM, 95.3FM, 1566AM
* Wide Bay 855AM, 100.1FM, 88.3FM
* NSW North Coast (Richmond and Tweed) 94.5FM
* Murwillumbah 720AM
* Grafton 738AM

101.5 fm for Moreton Bay. Thanks Sam-1966

NSW SES have started evacuation warnings(ses.nsw.gov.au) in Northern NSW. https://www.ses.nsw.gov.au/

Make sure you secure stuff outside and check in on any neighbours that might need help doing
Keep up to date via ABC Radio and local SES pages. If anyone has any useful info, updates or pictures please post in the comments.

please refer to gov sources in terms of predicted path and intensity.

Stay safe everyone!

General Discussion Cyclone

Comments

        • Protractor on 03/03/2025 - 19:49
          +4

          Rain'll be going sideways, as will bucket

  • sam-1966 on 03/03/2025 - 17:31
    +4

    Here's a link to locations to get sandbags in the Moreton Bay City Council area:

    https://www.moretonbay.qld.gov.au/Services/Disaster-Manageme…

    • tenpercent on 04/03/2025 - 11:17
      +1

      Free sand!
      And bags!

      Post as a deal.

    • AdosHouse on 03/03/2025 - 19:18
      +8

      Moreton Bay Council dream come true.

      • Protractor on 03/03/2025 - 19:51
        +2

        If anything there'll be more homeless afterwards. Hopefully the whole council gets to wear those shoes.

    • Cheap Gamer on 04/03/2025 - 12:24
      +2

      They'll need to change the definition of homelessness again.

      People sleeping in dinghies or kayaks with pets are no longer "persons experiencing homelessness camping".

      Stay safe my maroon mates. Remember, cars are not boats unless it's a Amphicar.

    • brendanm on 05/03/2025 - 08:21

      My wife of having to go around today to try and deal with at least some of this.

    • Cave Fire on 06/03/2025 - 12:35

      Sent to hotels and motels for the time being.

    • BewareOfThe Dog on 06/03/2025 - 17:29

      I read they are being relocated to motels.

  • Jimothy Wongingtons on 03/03/2025 - 19:18
    +2

    According to Reddit as of 20 min ago:

    For anyone in the BCC area planning on getting sandbags, Newmarket, Lota and Zillmere have all run out for the time being

  • miwahni on 03/03/2025 - 22:37
    +3

    Tuesday and Wednesday are normally my go-to-the-office days but we've been told we can work from home those days as well this week. Thanks Alfie!

    • Fasian on 04/03/2025 - 16:28

      If only it was you can have a free day off.

  • loadofrubbish on 04/03/2025 - 08:03

    Stay safe friends, hopefully this fizzles out and no damage to people or property.

    • Ryanek on 04/03/2025 - 10:54
      +2

      People will complain the Government made a big deal out of nothing.

      • MrThing on 04/03/2025 - 16:54
        +1

        People will complain the Government did not made a big deal out of it

        They're wrong either way

  • Alley Cat on 04/03/2025 - 09:52
    +2

    How is everyone preparing for it? I have not had any experience. People are saying to secure any loose items outside the house, does that include potted plants? I've got a scooter, shoe rack and random things in the back as well. When it flooded last Jan, everything was rearranged, and I haven't cleaned up the algae yet lol Presumably this time, the wind would pick up anything and throw it at the house. What do you recommend doing? I don't know if I can move everything inside.

    • Protractor on 04/03/2025 - 10:33

      I'd recommend you ask the right people, if you really care. Like the emergency services websites etc.The last thing you want in gale force winds is broken windows.It's all downhill from there.I'd also be reading the fine print on your insurance.

      • Alley Cat on 04/03/2025 - 10:45
        +3

        I have been reading up about preparations, but they are somewhat vague, I figured it must be something the locals have been doing growing up. I have decided to move everything inside as much as I can, switch off utilities and go to Bundaberg for a few days. If the window breaks, there's nothing I can do, except to be stranded in a cold and wet house. Only have building insurance, not contents. Not that worried to be honest. Things come and go, life continues.

        • Protractor on 04/03/2025 - 10:49
          -1

          What you do & how you end up depends mostly on where your house sits in the pathway of the cyclone.(obviously)
          Like you say, no-one can press the pause button on natures force. Despite what some of the more famous sociopaths claim. It is what it is.Maybe set up a wildlife ,or other camera to record what happens while you're away

          • tenpercent on 04/03/2025 - 11:25

            @Protractor:

            no-one can press the pause button on natures force

            The yanks have had almost 30 years to achieve their goal.

            • Protractor on 05/03/2025 - 10:14

              @tenpercent: LOL. America must have enough methane from brain farts to control the weather. What's next cloning Bruce Willis to stop the next asteroid.
              Even if anybody could control weather, the US would use it for evil first.

    • jacobb on 04/03/2025 - 13:30
      +3

      If it hits as expected, then expect 130kph winds. If anything can take a car hitting it over and over again at that speed then its fine, if it moves then it probably needs to be moved inside.

    • ForkSnorter on 04/03/2025 - 16:18

      If you have any cows, guinea pigs or camels, you'd better secure them as you don't want them blowing around.

      • Alley Cat on 04/03/2025 - 16:40

        Is it wrong to have a flying guinea pig image in my head as I read that? Unbelievably cute.

    • DukeNinja on 05/03/2025 - 13:31
      +1

      Cyclone vet here. Bring everything indoors that is loose and can be own away. Prepare for a week of no power - long life food, candles, torches that dont need recharging unless you have an inverter generator.

      Prepare to hear sounds you've never heard before.

      Branches will break. Park as far away as you can from trees.

      • Alley Cat on 05/03/2025 - 19:38

        Thanks for the tips. Everything has been put in the back, there's some less than half a meter gaps between the roof and the fence, but I can't find the strength to move everything inside. Just getting the sandbags was exhausting: I lined them up with the opening staring at the sky, then got told off by Google, had to redo it. The SES just assumed everyone know about how to use them… And I had to be there at 6:50am to collect them, when they insisted on delivering a day ago. To think I was one of the lucky ones, people in brissy were queuing for five hours or something last night for those.

        I will miss out on the once in a lifetime opportunity. Have my car set up to go up north and wait it out. I don't believe I would do well, a flashback of the Melbourne lock down, except this time I might not have the Internet or power.

  • MrThing on 04/03/2025 - 11:48
    -6

    It didn't think it was possible to blow QLD further into the past but the next few days might prove us wrong

  • Daddy Chill on 04/03/2025 - 14:16

    Anyone got live feed

  • MrThing on 04/03/2025 - 15:45
    +3

    lol cat 2 cyclone and it'll be all over by sunday and people are buying supplies for months.

    smh, imagine a real catastrophe, you are all dead

    • Alley Cat on 04/03/2025 - 16:39
      +5

      I just talked to a shop keep about it. They said they were here for the 1990 cyclone, brissy has taken quite a hit, lots of damages. Now I have googled for it, the 1990 cyclone, Nancy was cat 1. Last year's flood took down a telephone exchange as well, but we still had 3G, so it was just unbearably slow.

      It will be over by Sunday, but the aftermaths might linger for weeks, if not months.

    • jrowls on 04/03/2025 - 22:30

      there's going to be a LOT of rain, plus big swells and storm surges. low lying and riverside areas could be in some serious trouble over a pretty wide area down as far as port macquarie.

      grafton, lismore, gold coast etc, doesn't take a whole lot for expensive and serious water damage to occur.

    • ForkSnorter on 05/03/2025 - 12:13
      +2

      Today's newspaper talking about the 1974 cyclone:

      "A wet spring had turned into a wetter summer, with three weeks of soaking rain leading up to the Australia Day weekend in 1974. On January 24, Cyclone Wanda crossed the Queensland coast (near Maryborough and Hervey Bay).

      Wanda was a weak system, but the monsoonal trough she drew behind her was enough to dump 642 millimetres of rain over Brisbane in just three days.

      More than 13,500 homes were flooded in Brisbane, while thousands more were inundated in Ipswich. The disaster caused 16 deaths and left 8000 people homeless."

      Some images worth pondering there: https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queensland/history…

      • MrThing on 05/03/2025 - 14:12

        Good place to build a city, next to a river… Which floods…

        Better build some more houses in low lying flood plain kinda areas

        If people recall the flood in Brisbane 2010-2011, obviously people have short memories

        Buckle up

        • ForkSnorter on 05/03/2025 - 15:45

          Since the 2022 flood, a lot of the houses in the flood zones in Brisbane have now been raised with government support. The real disaster is Lismore, where the entire CBD was submerged under the flood waters in 2022. Two-storey houses entirely disappeared under the water. Murwillumbah and Tumbulgum are pretty bad too. I wouldn't want to be anywhere near Murwillumbah town centre this week.

      • belongsinforums on 05/03/2025 - 20:57

        Might get more rain than that

  • sam-1966 on 04/03/2025 - 17:28
    +4

    This is a list from the Moreton Bay Council website about what to do to prepare:

    • Consider your risk of isolation and/or flooding.
    • Think about where you would evacuate to, this could be with family or friends in a safer location.
    • IF IT'S FLOODED FORGET IT! Your car can't protect you from floodwater.

    Prepare your home
    • Store or tie down outside items like caravans, trailers, outdoor furniture, gas bottles, toys and play equipment.
    • Move outdoor furniture inside or if you have a pool, sink plastic outdoor furniture in the pool so it doesn’t fly around in strong winds.
    • Check for tree branches hanging over your roof. Cut them off if you can.
    • Make an emergency plan and kit.
    • For further information go to Get Ready Queensland website

    Tourists and visitors, campers and caravanners
    • Campers and caravanners should think about packing up now.
    • Visitors who do not need to stay in the area should plan to leave.
    • Leaving now is a safe option. Airports and highways could close if the cyclone gets closer.
    • If you choose to stay, ask accommodation staff where to shelter if the cyclone hits.

    If you have a boat or jet-ski
    • Prepare early. Remove your boat, jet-ski, canoes or kayaks from the water and store securely on land if possible.
    • If your boat is kept on the water, check your moorings and get ready now to relocate it to a safe mooring.
    • If your boat is in a marina, check-in with the marina manager.
    • Check your area’s Extreme Weather Contingency Plan on the Maritime Safety Queensland website.

    If you have livestock
    • Consider moving livestock to higher ground. You may need to open gates to other paddocks so animals can move to safety.
    • Block access to low-lying fields or other places near creeks and rivers.
    • Provide lots of food and clean water in a safe place away from creeks and rivers.
    • Make sure animals can be identified if they get lost. This may include brands or tags.
    • Prepare for isolation

    • ForkSnorter on 05/03/2025 - 12:25

      How do I stop my guinea pigs flying away?

      • Protractor on 05/03/2025 - 12:31
        +2

        Velcro pads.

      • DukeNinja on 05/03/2025 - 13:33

        Tie up their wings.

  • brendanm on 05/03/2025 - 08:30
    +1

    Stay safe everyone.

      • try2bhelpful on 05/03/2025 - 08:55

        I watched a series on the Boxing Day tsunami which included footage tourists had taken from a distance. One piece showed a guy standing on the beach as the wave came towards him and then being totally wiped out as it rolled over him. I was absolutely staggered anyone would be that stupid.

  • Alley Cat on 05/03/2025 - 12:42
    +1

    Does anyone live in a body corporate community? Is there any organisation of people volunteering or paid to help the less abled? I'm quite curious, as mine doesn't want to have anything to do with it, just says it's everyone's own responsibility, and if their pot plants hit someone else's car, it's too bad.

    • Protractor on 05/03/2025 - 13:57

      Welcome to corporate mentality

  • Checkmate3023 on 05/03/2025 - 13:14
    +1

    Its 'looking' really bad up there (im in Victoria) i hope everyone stays safe

    • morse on 05/03/2025 - 13:40
      +1

      Thanks! The worst case scenario flood map for the goldy looks devastating https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/8030faa976f64c34973… I’m actually anxious as tides and projections are not looking favourable.

      • Protractor on 05/03/2025 - 13:59
        -2

        Neo Atlantis by inaction?
        Under the effects of zero action (LNP) on climate change for 3+ decades, this could very well be a new paradigm in cyclone adjacent communities.

        • bigticket on 05/03/2025 - 14:22

          Thumbnail does not checkout.

          • Protractor on 05/03/2025 - 16:20
            +1

            @bigticket: I get it. You get your science from X.
            It's where reality,facts and truth go to die.It's the (very) white (mainly male) basement of internet Apartheid

            • bigticket on 05/03/2025 - 19:02

              @Protractor:

              I get it. You get your science from X.

              Hardly, and presumptuously incorrect. I get my science from science itself.
              Its ridiculous to say huge investments to counter climate change by any political party over several decades would lead to a reduction in natural disasters.

              • Protractor on 05/03/2025 - 19:11
                +1

                @bigticket: I've heard your version of denial a million times over 30 years. The impacts of climate extremes has increased over that period and continues to impact exponentially. Now who's presumptuously incorrect? The fact is every election cycle we take one step fwd and twenty 3 back. Promises are as big a greenhouse gas as lies are.

                • bigticket on 05/03/2025 - 19:16

                  @Protractor:

                  I've heard your version of denial a million times over 30 years.

                  I'm still not reading any science.

                  btw. I didn't neg you

                  • Protractor on 05/03/2025 - 19:36
                    +1

                    @bigticket: If you can't digest the century of publicly science in front of you, (that's only ever disputed by the compromised,and the corrupt,and the careless) rather than look for your approved ideological version on it on a forum, it explains the vacuum you live in.This is one area that isn't a challenge to understand and to witness all in the same life span.The only other miracle is how ppl who claim to intelligent, can think any number of humans is never too many.
                    Let's part ways.Find somebody else to play hockey stick with.

                    • bigticket on 05/03/2025 - 20:23
                      -2

                      @Protractor: Climate change science is based on modelling. Simple modelling is predicative and is not equal or even equates to the real world that is infinitely complex. I suggest that if these climate scientists are so good at predicting 10 or 50 years into the future, you round them up and put their skills to better use and model the stock markets and/or the betting industry and kill it.

                      If you can't digest the century of publicly science in front of you, (that's only ever disputed by the compromised,and the corrupt,and the careless)

                      While you're at it, you could ask them why in the late 70's early 80's the climate scientists were predicting another ice age and in a matter of a few years there was a sudden back flip to the current global heating model.

                      And do you remember Al Gore and his hockey stick scientists. What a farce that was.
                      They predicted that we had reached the point of no return and populated coastal regions would be underwater 10 years ago. FYI that did not happen.

                      Need I say more.

                      • Protractor on 05/03/2025 - 20:24

                        @bigticket: Would you like a cracker?

                        • bigticket on 05/03/2025 - 20:27

                          @Protractor: What? Mr science hasn't a rebuttal. How about you crunch on that cracker and think about it.

                          • Protractor on 05/03/2025 - 20:29

                            @bigticket: I think you've embarrassed your family enough, Mr Bird.

                            • bigticket on 05/03/2025 - 20:31

                              @Protractor: In reality you are the one parroting the climate change scientists.

                              • Protractor on 05/03/2025 - 20:37
                                +1

                                @bigticket: See the last word in that reply ^ ?
                                You are denying it's a science while calling them scientists. Climate change is not based entirely on 'modelling'. It's the deniers who use modelling as an excuse to deny all parts of atmospheric science. You deny the actual physical events are changing in intensity and frequency.You ignore the DATA.The D A T A. You know,the temps that keep going up and breaking records?

                                Not models, genius. Data.
                                You've got nothing to add to a 40 year old pimply conspiracy game for late night climate denying trolling forums.Just the usual infantile musings of the evidence challenged minority.

                                • bigticket on 05/03/2025 - 20:49

                                  @Protractor:

                                  Climate change is not based entirely on 'modelling'.

                                  Wrong. Its entirely based on modelling. Its the current and historical data thats used to predict the future climate, by definition.

                                  • Protractor on 05/03/2025 - 21:26

                                    @bigticket: Wrong. What was 'predicted' over 50 years ago based on pure data(pre modelling) is happening now. And worse.Modelling gives multiple scenarios. All confirm the paradigm you can't get your peanut around. You denying it is all King Canute childs play.It's embarrassing.Modelling now gives even more gravitas , and there aint a loophole in sight to preserve your fantasy..

                                    • bigticket on 05/03/2025 - 21:53
                                      -1

                                      @Protractor:

                                      Wrong. What was 'predicted' over 50 years ago based on pure data(pre modelling) is happening now.

                                      That does not even make sense. Saying 'predicted' actually defines some form of predictive modelling taking place. And all modelling is fundamentally based on pure data, so that point is moot. You're in affect agreeing with me without realising it.
                                      What was predicted 50 years ago was an ice age, or did you miss the memo.

                      • saltypete on 06/03/2025 - 10:38

                        @bigticket: LMAO! You do realise that you are making dumb comments about modellling on a forum topic that is based on modelling? You do get thhis right?
                        There is currently no cyclone hitting Qld coast.. Its presence, course, intensity is predicted by modelling.
                        But you are ignorantly putting cr@p on modellers - some of these same people contributing to, and reviewing climate modelling and as another part of their job competently modelling this cyclone intensity and course.

                        Thank you for joke of the day mate. 👍

                        • bigticket on 06/03/2025 - 12:46

                          @saltypete:

                          LMAO! You do realise that you are making dumb comments about modellling on a forum topic that is based on modelling?

                          What is a joke is your comprehension. Nowhere are my comments discussing cyclone modeling. You do get this right?

                          FYI my comments are specifically referring to climate change modellers, you know the guys modeling temperature rises way way into the future, like ~10 to 50 years, and the political assertion that @Protractor indicates that cyclone Alfred is due to "the effects of zero action (LNP) on climate change for 3+ decades"

                          Hope that clears it up for you.

                          • saltypete on 06/03/2025 - 14:28
                            +2

                            @bigticket: Agree that a single southern cyclone does not prove any climate change case. But taken with the extreme drying, the increased bushfires, the flooding these incidents are all expected byproducts of the expected climate change. There are far more compelling long term data. Even data not collected with any interest in climate at all.

                            So what are your specific issues with the currrent set of climate models?

                            Or is it just 'the Vibe'?
                            Because you dont have any idea what you are talking about do you? If all you have is criticism of some 40 year old information you need to get across what's happening.
                            And so you are really just an unpaid supporter for vested Gas and oil keeping business as usual.
                            At least vested interests are doing it for a reason. You are just parroting the BS for whatever internal emotions are driving you. They are making damn sure their grandkids will be insulated from the cr@ppy world they inherit. Yours and mine - probably not so lucky.

                            An as an aside - the group of modellers who have got it so wrong at BOM in their contributions to and peer review the climate models are the same group who do the cyclone modelling for us.

                            • bigticket on 06/03/2025 - 17:40
                              -1

                              @saltypete:

                              But taken with the extreme drying, the increased bushfires, the flooding these incidents are all expected byproducts of the expected climate change.

                              Current bushfires, flooding and other events attributed to climate change do not scientifically support the model of climate change. This is the BS narrative splashed across the media channels and eaten up by most.

                              So what are your specific issues with the currrent set of climate models?

                              I have already address this. "Climate change science is based on modelling. Simple modelling is predicative and is not equal or even equates to the real world that is infinitely complex." To even suggest that modelling can extrapolate current data into the next decades with any meaningful confidence is ridiculous. Error bars deviate exponentially.

                              You are just parroting the BS for whatever internal emotions are driving you.

                              You are right, I am parroting, parroting scientific fact.

                              the group of modellers who have got it so wrong at BOM in their contributions to and peer review the climate models are the same group who do the cyclone modelling for us.

                              Short term modeling, as on Alfred is fine, because its short term, only predicting a few days into the future and even then the intensity and direction of the cyclone is uncertain. Is there any model predicting, with confidence when the next one will strike? Absolutely not.

      • Alley Cat on 05/03/2025 - 14:05
        +2

        Gold coast looks pretty grim. I wonder if the tall buildings have been built to withstand the force, not so much the flood. On a windy day, in a high rise building in Melbourne, you can really feel it flex.

        • Cluster on 05/03/2025 - 15:22

          The building flexing and making noise is good. They're designed to bend.

        • Kikkoman56 on 05/03/2025 - 15:51
          +1

          Structural Engineer here, the typical design wind speed used for loading is 150-200km/hr depending on the surrounding area. The reported wind speeds are short of that by a fair margin. Remember wind pressure goes up to the power of 2 with a proportional increase in velocity so most modern buildings will be fine to deal with this wind speed.

          • Alley Cat on 05/03/2025 - 19:24

            @Kikkoman56: Thanks for the explanation. I would still lose my mind, though, with the noise and movements.

  • Blokeinhisundies on 05/03/2025 - 14:21

    No public transport on the GC or Brisbane from last service tonight until Saturday morning according to an email my employer just sent out. Two extra days off and paid as per roster. Bonus….As long as my house isn't destroyed.

    • try2bhelpful on 05/03/2025 - 16:20

      Swings and roundabouts baby. Seriously, fingers crossed you guys are OK up there. Should be quite the show.

  • Morphio25 on 05/03/2025 - 15:33

    Not to take away from the people who actually live there and are going to directly affected, we have a trip booked to the Gold Coast on Sunday 16th for a week to do the usual tourist shit like visiting the theme parks. How f**ked are we?

    • Blokeinhisundies on 05/03/2025 - 16:18
      +1

      As a GC resident I would expect it to be fine. I am booked to go skydiving on Tuesday and don't expect any disruption.

      Localised flooding should be well and truly over by the 16th. I'd expect everything to be back to normal by then.

      • Morphio25 on 05/03/2025 - 16:48
        +1

        Cheers. Best of luck for getting through the storm, I don't envy you or anyone else in that scenario - it must be scary as hell!

    • Cluster on 05/03/2025 - 16:42
      +1

      16th? No problem. If it's anything like typhoons in Japan (which I've been through) there will be some damage, like fallen trees, etc, but this will quickly get cleaned up. It'll be fine.

    • morse on 05/03/2025 - 17:55

      I think you’ll be fine - have fun!

    • isthisreallife22 on 05/03/2025 - 22:10

      there will be some localised severe damage and flooding, but it's probably not going to be so widespread that 2 weeks later is a write off completely.

    • THICKnSLOW on 05/03/2025 - 23:07

      Well if you like giving a hand cleaning up the mess, assisting hospitality crews manage displaced and sick people, assist in disaster recovery the youse will enjoy your time there.

  • MEDBEDb on 06/03/2025 - 01:36
    +2

    Stay safe everyone!

  • ForkSnorter on 06/03/2025 - 08:46
    +1

    I think the title should be modified to "SE QLD and North Coast NSW". While the eye of the storm is likely to pass somewhere between the Gold Coast and Brisbane, it's looking like the bulk of the bad weather and flooding is going to hit Northern NSW (between Coffs Harbour and Tweed Heads).

    • Logical on 06/03/2025 - 10:12

      I think the tile should be modified to where the FK is Alfred now?

    • morse on 06/03/2025 - 11:07

      I think it will be pretty bad GC based on currently predictions http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml That red ring is "very destructive winds" hitting the GC directly 7am Friday. "very destructive" sounds bad to me. but for sure NNSW will cop it too.

  • NatoTomato on 06/03/2025 - 09:40
    +2

    Good of the cyclone to delay a bit while the tide goes out.

  • Jimothy Wongingtons on 06/03/2025 - 10:08
    +6

    Yesterday: oh lawd he coming!!! If only we had more time!

    Today: COME ON IM HEREEEEE DO IT - DO IT NOWWWW!

  • mrdean on 06/03/2025 - 11:30
    -4

    Private backers funding project for qld/nsw in an attempt to mitigate the cyclone. "A deeper objective of this project is to demonstrate the capability to edit weather outcomes". How many here are aware of this? Is this being covered by mainstream news?

    https://x.com/MilesResearch/status/1896578255634702803

    https://files.ozbargain.com.au/upload/442669/120202/x_davidm…

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