Which Parts of The Australian Economy Are Performing Poorly?

Here's a list of where the Australian economy is performing quite well: (credit: Alan Austin)

Is there data to suggest the economy is performing poorly, as stated ad-nauseum by the ABC?

I am interested to see how OzBargain can explain the economy is performing poorly?

Comments

    • +1

      Did you come as a minor or adult? What year did you arrive in Australia?

      • I came here as a kid 30 years ago

        • And when did you buy your first house?
          What were your parents' occupations?
          What is your occupation?

          • @tenpercent: I bought my first house (a flat, actually) in my 20s after working full-time for a lot of my uni degree. No need to go to class. Skip lectures.

            I am a lawyer

            Parents were scientist and factory worker

            Occupation doesn't matter though, since anyone can become any occupation. I wasn't born in an English speaking country, only ever went to public/selective schools, still got to uni on scholarship and did fine. No issues networking even though I'm not a white male. All the opportunities are there for you.

            • @justworld: So you arrived around 1995 as a child and bought your first property in your 20s which would have been the 2000s or early 2010s. And you have since benefitted from massive house price boom since then.

              I am a lawyer

              So you've been earning far higher than the median.

              went to selective schools

              So you were fortunate to be gifted with intelligence that puts you in the top 10% of your cohort, and/or with high level ROTE learning abilities.

              Parents were scientist

              So you had above average intelligent parent/s.

              go to uni on scholarship

              Most people do not get scholarships or get to coast through uni such as by

              skip(ping) lectures

              You not being a white male is entirely irrelevent since Australia has legislated against sex and race discrimination since the 1970s/1980s, which you being a lawyer should know.

              It seems you have had a lot of lucky breaks and advantages early on and then got into the housing market at the right time and rode the housing boom plus had a high paying job since then. Good for you. But don't be a pr*ck to anyone who didn't have all your advantages.

              • @tenpercent:

                You not being a white male is entirely irrelevent since Australia has legislated against sex and race discrimination since the 1970s/1980s, which you being a lawyer should know.

                Lol, you really think gender and culture-based prejudices don't still exist? As a male lawyer I can tell you I have it far easier than an equivalent woman lawyer would - and law isn't the worst profession by that standard. Just because something's legislated doesn't mean it covers the entire field.

                I have had advantage as a man, I quite happily admit that. But that's something that applies to every other man out there, and I see plenty of men who still (wrongly) think the world is stacked against them.

                As for my other advantages, the only one that is innate or not available to all is having intelligent parents - but we each play the hand we dealt. And it's interesting that no one out there is blaming low intelligence for not being able to afford a house. They manage to find other, extraneous things instead.

                • @justworld:

                  No issues networking even though I'm not a white male. All the opportunities are there for you me.

    • +1

      Australia is an extremely easy country compared to any other country in the world.

      Lol. You must really like generalising.

      • +2

        I've lived on three continents. How many have you lived on?

        If you're struggling in Australia, you'd be (profanity) anywhere else.

        • +2

          Not that relevant but I've lived in two continents and five countries. Australia (a country and not a continent) wasn't easier (or much harder) than any of them. All have pros and cons. Australia has good wages for shit jobs, (relatively) shit wages for good jobs and stupidly expensive and over-populated major cities.

          The idea that you'd get by here but somehow be homeless and unemployed in any other Western country is hilarious.

          • +4

            @CaptainJack: Agree with you that Australia has good wages for shit jobs and shit wages for good jobs. In that sense, the people with shit jobs have no idea how easy they have it. Go work a shit job in the US or anywhere in Asia and report back how it goes.

            What I was saying is that if you're homeless here you'd be homeless anywhere else too. The level of social support we have in Australia is endless and boundless.

  • +4

    Which Parts of The Australian Economy Are Performing Poorly?

    Internet Forums

  • +2

    40% of new jobs were created in the public service.

  • +11

    All of those stats are propped up, skewed or otherwise inflated to indicate "paper growth".
    For example:

    • Jobs - yesterday Treasury confirmed that 83% of ALL NEW JOBS GROWTH in 2024 are non-market jobs - so government, taxpayer funded positions. The highest growth has been in NDIS assistance, with statistically 20% of all Aussies being on-paper disabled.
    • GDP - includes holes and houses, with holes not being taxed properly and foreign corporations owning most of them and paying bugger all to the budget, and houses being inflated and just a speculative gamble, not reflective of any actual "product" or "production" in the country.
    • Inflation - look up CPI and how it conveniently doesn't include rent/housing and other things that are causing the cost of living crisis etc.
    • Record profits - that's corporatism and several large unregulated oligopolies (i.e. Coles+Woolies, insurance companies etc.) squeezing Aussies, which is the CAUSE of current crisis, not something to brag about.
    • Wealth per adult - inflated by paper value of primary residences, that people can't monetise or they'll end up homeless with ongoing housing ponzi and vacancy rates at 1% or less in certain cities.
  • +6

    The average Australian is experiencing cost of living stress so all these stat's dont show whats really happening.

    • -2

      and where did you get your stat from? what is an average Australian?

  • Been in a per-capita recession for over 2 years all these numbers are masking the fact we are 'going backwards'

    But considering OP is a paid ALP shill and 90% your posts are in support of the left and the ALP i wouldnt expect you to post the 'one stastic' that matters in this conversation (for the record the LNP dont have a good migration policy either)

    the economy is only holding up because of the record high influx of migration - sure more money is being 'spent' but there is more mouths to feed and provide for thus we are growing the pie but we are all getting less of a slice the fact people that 'still' support this government completely ignore that is beyond sad and proof they are just sitting in their echo chambers of mis-information or are just paid off (like many of the fake online posters are) - we have almost hit the point where ABC is on the same level as sky news in terms of reliability and 'quality of journalism

    This post reeks of disgusting bias and is exactly why we need a change of government perhaps a minority LNP government which has to work with small parties and independents to bring positive change because this government we have now is terrible

    The ALP shills on here are getting embarressing this post should at least acknowledge the per-capita recession but the fact it has been mentioned in the comments MULTIPLE times and OP has not added it in kind of shows he is a shill and im happy to call him out on it

    • +1

      As soon as I started reading the post I thought "this must Albo's mum".

      • -1

        Nah this OP is a shill has been for years just look at his/her post history the mods just let him troll because Ozbargain is pro wokeism if you posted a post the other way around you'd probably get a 30 days ban

    • +3

      Phew, just in the nick of time. Australia's economy ends 21-month per capita recession as GDP grows faster than population

      Your suggestions that I am a paid shill are literally laughable, mate. ALP paid shill on OzBargain? Are you serious? A ten-yo OzBargain account is a paid shill? What recreationals are you on?

      The disgusting bias is seeing the absolute atrocious performance of Australia under 9 years of the LNP. Mired in constant controversy and corruption, yet you're here suggesting the LNP have the means to govern.

      On what policies are you voting for them?

      • +1

        21 months! How could that happen, and who was in charge?

  • +7

    Almost all of your stats can be atrributed to high immigration. You can't see any negatives?

  • +4

    We, as a nation, are unproductive (or at least becoming less productive).
    Anecdotally, this doesn't surprise me in the least on what I see day to day in my employment.

    • +3

      Who needs an elected Government and the expert public servants to the country.

      Sack them all, and hire the experts from OZB. Then God help us.

  • -1

    Great list of various stats, thanks for putting it together.

  • +1

    Median wealth per capita is totally meaningless unless you exclude primary home value and total housing debt amounts from it. If you include them in calculation, then this metric isn't something to be proud of; exactly opposite actually.

  • Imagine believing any of these stats are real. Next you'll be telling me inflation is around 3% (seasonally adjusted of course). It's been one of the worst drops in disposable income in history. Nobody's buying anything. Fake economy propped up with immigration.

  • +1

    Covid is the biggest wealth change ever, the people at the top end made a killing while the bottom and middle half went backwords, if you really believe inflation to be at 2-3% then please explain to me my everything is going up by 20-40%?

    For example: my internet costs is $79 come in May it will be $95, a watermelon by the kg used to be $1.50, now its $3, same with capsicum which was $5, now $8kg?

    • +3

      Your internet and capsicums might be more expensive however those price rises are offset in the CPI calculation by the falling prices of 98" flat screen TVs and Sony zoom lenses

      I'm being sarcastic but that's actually how it works.

    • Vegetable and fruit prices are volatile and seasonal, and you can always choose not to eat certain products that have gone up in price.

      Same thing with the price of eggs. If you always had one for breakfast but now they're expensive and inaccessible, just eat something else. Where such costs should be included in inflation is for businesses that cannot substitute. Think for example a cake shop.

      • let them eat cake

    • Covid was a mess.
      Swings and roundabouts with prices:
      Petrol is down - 156.9c at the Vibe station on Great Eastern Highway this morning.
      My internet is $95. It was $99 forever but dropped last year I think.
      Capsicums were $10/kg in Aldi this week, which is crazy but I think there's harvesting issues involved too. Cucumbers are cheap.
      Some prices are rising. Others are stable. Yet others are falling.

      I personally believe that the whole inflation angle has been a bit overblown in recent years, but there it is.

  • -1

    Most of your indicators you use are produced by ABS.

    ABS' indicators that more than once have been labeled as "questionable" or just produced by the magic of mathematical statistics.

    The good old "Unemployment rate" (always hovering around 4-5%) was an example consistently adjusted to seasonal changes of some kind but never was an actual head count, just an statistical projection. How convenient.

    Other indicators, like ASX booming shows some investors are, in paper, better off.

    More private aircraft sold than before? How many were they before? A new enterprise acquiring stock?

    All this has been tried before … not convincing …

    • +4

      The ABS provides it's methodology in meticulous detail.

      The problem has never been that the numbers are fake, as is often implied. The problem is the numbers don't mean what people think they mean. That includes journalists and politicians, most have only a superficial understanding.

      For instance, CPI does not measure inflation, the meaning of inflation is devaluation of the purchasing power of the currency.

      CPI measures the relative amount an average consumer spends on consumer goods each quarter. It doesn't measure the prices of the same goods over time. That means it cannot measure inflation.

      • Yes, unquestionably ABS "methodology" is academically perfect.
        However such methodology gives results that do not reflect much more than being an statistical result.

        Hence, looking at their "statistically perfect indexes" proves absolutely nothing.
        And that was my point.

        • Yes and it is a good point. I wish more people understood

  • +1

    Coincident timing - considering the forthcoming federal election

    • -1

      Right wing hacks do this all the time.Always the same dozen or so young liberal serfs.The forum is always being used to push the forum to the right. Rewrite history,and sow social division.
      It's called Canavan Syndrome. An incurable condition.
      If the OP had any principles that show what the previous govt left us with, including an inter-generational wealth depleting,existentially lethal pointless AUKUS contract. It should be renamed AUK, because the orange Russian Doll has changed the goal posts again re ship building.(Domestic,commercial,military) That leaves us with uranium on our face. Forever. Via rusting 2nd hand subs, and all the expiring waste we now have to deal ( in port,in our waters and in our harbours) with from 2026-end of civilisation Which is drawing ever closer thanks to the uSA

      • +1

        If the OP had any principles that show what the previous govt left us with

        Friend, I am all about the absolute destruction the previous government left us with!

  • +1

    How much $$ is the LNP paying you to do their research?

    • -1

      They have the IPA for that, and I can't even tell if you're serious because I am staunchly a Labor supporter

      • They have the IPA for that, and I can't even tell if you're serious because I am staunchly a Labor supporter

        That's bloody obvious.

        Are you also a party member?

      • Rusted on, I bet.
        The Labor party I grew up with isn't the Labor party we have now. There is no party for the average Australian anymore let alone the workers.

  • Australia is extremely reliant on big miners, and they're by no means doing 'badly' , but the return on capital invested in Australia is no longer competitive with other developed nations such as USA or Canada and parts of South America too. This is largely due to unfavourable labour and heritage laws that the labour government has facilitated. A stable political climate with consistent and predictable lawmaking, and a market forces driven approach to labour and commerce was attractive to local and international big mining businesses. Nowadays, unions, sky rocketing labour costs and associated unrealistic labour protections, approval delays and ballooning heritage royalties (which only benefit a small group of people) make Australia unattractive. Yes it would be great if Australia could add value to products mined, but our economy isn't ready to offset income from mining - nor will it be for some time. Discouraging investment in mining is not favourable for the quality of life of Australians as many small/medium businesses and service firms directly or indirectly rely on the success of the mining industry too. Australia doesn't have other state or federal income sources to fund schools, healthcare, defence etc without mining - so labour should either shape up to make mining investment more attractive (not gonna happen), or we'd be better off with a change of government.

    • +6

      Australia is very attractive for mining as our government is too placid to nationalise mining operations as it should.

      None of the cost barriers you mention matter at all, they are simply a tax deduction for miners who are supposed to pay 40% tax and end up paying close to zero. They already import overseas workers to cut wages. Soon they won't have to do that either.

      The self driving trucks are here and the bipedal robots are around the corner.
      https://www.mining.com/tech-giants-liebherr-and-fortescue-re…

      Minerals are a limited resource, all that matters is that their operations are profitable. They ship everything offshore for processing to their own foreign entities and pretend they sold the minerals for barely more than it cost to extract them.

      The obvious solution to the scenario as you have described is to lower taxes and lower working conditions so multinationals bring their processing onshore. They will take the tax cut like the auto manufacturers did, they aren't going to create any more local jobs. Cutting wages and taxes for industry isn't the solution

      • +2

        Australia is very attractive for mining as our government is too placid to nationalise mining operations as it should.

        I mean, are you ignore what has happened each time Labor tried to reform Mining Resource taxes? Just gonna pretend that that is immaterial?

        • Can you explain? I'm not sure what this is referring to

          • +4

            @[Deactivated]: Australia is, whether we like to admit it or not, under the hegemony of the USA. USA is (I'm sure you'd agree) an oligarchy. The Gas Cartels are some of the most powerful cartels in the world, and they have an extreme stranglehold of power in Australia.

            Three Labor politicians have felt that wrath: Gough Whitlam, Kevin Rudd, Annastacia Palaszczuk.

            Crikey covered the Mining Resource reforms sought by Whitlam and Rudd. Though this article doesn't go into Mining Reforms, it shows a clear link of a Coup by the Americans and the English to remove Whitlam from government. Fitzgerald Enquiry uncovered a lot of this.

            Kevin Rudd proposed a 40% resources tax. How much does it cost to bring down a prime minister? $22m is how much the Mining Industry spent on it's campaign against Kevin Rudd for his Resource Super Profit Tax. This tax was proposed to only affect Mining Operations making over $50m in profit, mind you!

            Liberal PM John Gorton even had a crack in the early 70s, I think. AIDC Australian Industry Development Corporation (basically, Big gas we won't bother you about your own profits but we'll do our own investing in extracting resources). His own party forced him to resign because of this.

            People love to point to all the other countries that are getting their fair share of the resources being extracted. Until you look a little closer …. Norway, for example. Do they extract an insane amount of resources from their mining industry? Heck yeah. Do they have one political party that is in power 70% of the time that is outwardly friendly to the Mining industry? Heck no. Both major political parties in Norway are pro-high taxes of the Mining Industry. How would that work in Australia, with the entire Media Landscape openly hostile to the Labor party, and the LNP (whom have the entire media landscape obscuring their fiscal performance) are completely beholden to the Mining Industry and more than happy to allow profits sent overseas?

            We literally had Peter Dutton grovelling to Gina Rinehart at the leaked Mining Industry Christmas party just last year! "A Dutton lead government will be the best friend to the resource sector in Australia".

            The other countries are all basically dictatorships or authoritarian. Find me any country that isn't, that is also making bank of Resource taxes.

            Same for the progressive coal royalties in QLD. If you think the Palaszczuk/Miles Government just lost the election because of their performance on youth crime, well.

            • -1

              @ThithLord:

              Three Labor politicians have felt that wrath: Gough Whitlam, Kevin Rudd, Annastacia Palaszczuk.

              Good riddance. They were all losers.

            • +1

              @ThithLord: Thanks, I have heard of some of these but putting it all together paints a picture that can't be ignored.

              • +1

                @[Deactivated]: Yeah, mate. So be wary of any outfit (Juice Media, Australia Institute, the Teals, Piggy Punters Politics, Swollen Pickle) suggesting we should just tax them! as they know full-well what it has cost every single politician to propose taxing more; they just don't care that it costs that politician their governance.

      • Referencing a tax cut and absolute profitability isn't enough in the context of capital allocation. Capital is allocated if the return on capital is above a required rate, so just being profitable alone isn't enough - they have to be profitable to a level that warrants capital to be invested. High royalties, and unknown timelines due to approval delays as well as ever changing labour relations laws that make business difficult are not favourable for the required rate of return. Australia's high energy cost and lack of robust plans to have firm and cheap generation is also cited by big miners as a risk. BHP for example have cited the USA, Saudi Arabia and Argentina as being far more attractive for these reasons.

        • +1

          Australia could be much more competitive

          I feel like you have done a good job of reading mining org annual reports and repeating their talking points. Have you thought about this from the perspective of an Australian citizen?
          Will being 'more competitive' actually benefit Australia?

          What is the point of attracting a multinational miner to deplete all our reserves if we aren't maximising the wages of our citizens and the tax revenue for our country? Once the minerals are depleted they are gone forever.

          It's the CEO's job to find reasons why Australia is uncompetitive. They are never going to say our taxes are too low and our employees work for cheap.

          Let them deplete the reserves in the 'more competitive' countries first. I don't believe the Saudis are going to give away their wealth for nothing, the USA and Argentina will because both their governments are headed by individuals friendly to graft and 'donations'.

          When all the easily accessible minerals have been consumed and market prices rise, they will reconsider what is worthwhile - if that is even a genuine issue.

          • +1

            @[Deactivated]: Completely agree that wages etc would be better off if we could extract wealth from adding value to the dirt we dig. Australia doesn't have sufficient technological investment to make that happen nor do current policies facilitate a change to that. Many of our industries which involve value adding to raw materials and manufacturing have closed because labour is too expensive, and return on capital for less labour intensive methods is too low (high electricity costs, taxes etc). So we clearly aren't attractive enough for investment in manufacturing, refining, processing etc, and current policies re approvals and royalties dont encourage digging more dirt. GDP and federal income is already so reliant on mining, do you have any other ideas on how to fund our country without mining - let alone create sustainable growth?

            • +1

              @niknikniknik: In economics the profit maximising price does not maximise output. The mining CEOs rationale is what is in their best interests - not ours. You are assuming that if some % of mines are not viable in Australia, that is a bad thing. That is a distraction created by a clever CEO.

              OPEC nations don't maximise oil output.

              We shouldn't be encouraging local mining investment at any cost. Adding a few hundred jobs in far north Queensland or remote WA at the expense of billions in tax revenue might make GDP look good, it's good for the statistics, but it isn't beneficial for the real economy.

              The tax deductions and offsets are already far too generous in the mining industry, half the mining operations pay no tax at all.

              We should be maximising Australia's tax revenue - and using that to lower personal income tax and tax on small businesses. That is how to diversify the economy.

              In addition to closing avenues for tax deductions, 50% of all mining corporation shares should be required to be government owned, this way the impact of tax loopholes are partially captured as government dividend revenue instead.

    • +1

      A quick glance at BHP's annual report indicates extensive new investment by the company in Australia (eg. SA copper projects). Woodside's Scarborough project is 3/4 complete, it's massive. I don't think Australia is unattractive to the miners. In fact, miners count stable government and skilled population as more important than labor costs and heritage payments.

      • Since you bring up BHP, their ceo has directly quote high royalties (which include heritage payments) in addition to slow approvals as a risk to competitiveness in Australia. Citing stable government too, yes, a massive plus - but stability of a government also includes how quickly they succumb to industry changing labour relations laws which dramatically impact operations of a huge miner. E.g. same job same pay BS, and the ease with which unions are infiltrating industry. Australia could be much more competitive if government got approvals, royalties and a more market forces driven approach to labour relations right.

        • +2

          Those comments are merely a wink to shareholders that he's lobbying the government for favourable policies. Based on past performance they will be successful too. They got into McGowan's pockets (only after he retired from poltics, of course).

          And isn't BHP one of those big miners who lie about revenues by funneling sales through Singapore just to avoid paying corporate taxes in Australia? The Big Un-Australian.

  • +3

    "real income per person is actually slightly lower than it was one year ago and only 1.5 per cent higher than it was a decade ago"

    That's all I care https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/australians-no-better-off…

    • +1

      Absolutely disgusting.

      Real income per person hasn't changed in any meaningful way for a decade, but cost of living has, cost of housing has.
      So we're worse off.

      I wonder if I flip and flop between the two major parties if it will get any better?

      • +1

        Real income is probably calculated on pre-tax amount . If we factor in bracket creep, we are actually worse off.

  • +3

    Travel industry has come off a 12 month high.

    The big players ASX announcements were down last month, except flight centre (their business arm kept them going).

    One of our suppliers told us we did great last month, as our sales with them were 'only' 30% down compared to last year, compared to their total sales being 70% down. Yikes.

  • Australia can no longer manufacture windows for homes.

    "Australia’s last major plastics manufacturer, Qenos, closed last year due to high energy costs. Now, Australia is wholly reliant on imported plastics from China.

    In February, Australia’s only architectural glass manufacturer, Oceania Glass, collapsed after 169 years of operation, amid soaring gas costs.

    Oceania Glass was Australia’s only manufacturer of architectural flat glass, producing and distributing format glass for use in Australian homes and buildings.

    So, while Australia exports most of its East Coast gas to China, it will now import plastics, glass, and nearly every other manufactured good from China, thanks to expensive energy costs.

    All of Labor’s fantastical 1.2 million housing construction target will now rely on imported windows.

    We are not a serious country."

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