Solar novice here, so would appreciate feedback on the below quotes to be installed in Sydney.
23 X TW440 panels
10KW SAJ R6 Single Phase Inverter
Bird Mesh
$7.5k out of pocket after rebates
Second quote received for $10k
22x Jinko 475W panels
Sungrow G3 10kW 1 phase inverter
Third quote similar specs + battery for approx $12k
Nar, batteries are not worth it financially in 99% of use cases
I think you will find with all the rebates on offer - especially if you live in NSW (or South Aus), getting a battery has now reached the economical within the warranty period status
If you dont believe me, believe the solar quotes bloke - his article all about it was only updated 5 days ago. Every state other than Tas, NT and Vic the pay back period under the cases he investigated is below 10 years
These comparisons never consider what you could earn by investing the money elsewhere instead of putting it into a battery, and you also need to be very confident you're going to live in the same home for 10+ years - how many of us can realistically say they are not going to move into another house in the next 10 years?
Don't get me wrong, I would love to buy a battery if it made sense and the ROI was say 3-4 years but I just don't see it at the moment. I live in Qld.
@scrambledeggs: With the rebates now available my calculated ROI is now about 5 years vs 10+ previously. It's good enough now that we're pulling the trigger and getting a battery installed to supplement our solar system.
@scrambledeggs: Before the recent announced changes, I would have agreed with you. With rebates, you can now get a 13.5kWh for $0 out of pocket (or close to it) in VIC with the no-interest loan.
If you enrol in a VPP like Amber, you can start making money back and cut your payback period to <3 years, so all use beyond that is a bonus. Also, the 'invest in something else' truism doesn't really apply, given how unstable markets have become, and how everyones' super and ETFs took a dive this year. Yes, you can make more if you invest well, but there's no guarantee of this.
Neither is buying a car over 25k, but many people do it.
Any financial modelling to show that it's not worth it financially in 99% of use case?
It obviously depends on individual use cases, but batteries are getting cheaper and larger - you can get a 20 kWh battery for < $10k now (e.g. see https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/904348 for a $8,800 installed Alpha ESS 10+10 kWh battery). With this size of battery, you're practically off-grid.
If you're in VIC and you use reverse cycle heating, the savings can be substantial. For example, in my house, a summer electricity bill is around $120, in winter, it's around $300. Adding up the cost of electricity over the last year before I got a battery in, I get around $2,300.
With the battery in, my summer electricity bills are around $40, and whilst I don't have a winter one yet, my one for April was around $50 (exploiting TOU tariffs for charging - some have "free hours" where you can charge for free). My guess is that a full winter bill will come out to around maybe $60-70. Where it really helps is that it basically makes heating almost free. Since heating is most important in evenings and before sunrise when there's no sun, the battery is very beneficial.
Even a conservative estimate of a $1,500 p.a. savings would make a battery worth it. Taking a discount rate of around 5% (which is what you can get from a savings account, for example), over 10 years, this would be $11,582 (=PV(0.05, 10, 1500) in Excel), which is less than what the battery costs today, and it will likely last you longer than 10 years. I only have a 10 kWh, so the PV would only have to be > $4,999 (which is already the case after 5 years, let alone 10). This assumes electricity prices will stay constant, but of course, they are more likely to rise, so the savings are likely conservative.
If you live in QLD, you probably don't pay as much in heating.
To the point of whether people move houses or not within the next 10 years, given the median holding period for a house in NSW where OP is based is 10.5 years for owner occupiers (see: https://www.savings.com.au/news/how-long-do-australians-hold…), the answer to the question of "how many of us can realistically say they are not going to move into another house in the next 10 years?" is "more than 50%". This is for each individual to tailor to their circumstance, but the idea that nobody lives in a house for more than 10 years is absurd and not supported by the data.
I thought alot of people said its not economical to get a battery due to long roi.
Just curious, how much kwh per day in your opinion during the day do you think battery not worth it
Second quote received for $10k
22x Jinko 475W panels
Sungrow G3 10kW 1 phase inverter
Third quote similar specs + battery for approx $12k
I just had a 10.6kw system installed for $3.5k our of pocket (RISEN panels and FoxESS 10kw single phase inverter with wifi). NSW.
Gee, that's a great price. Best I have so far is $6.5k of pocket for 10KW SAJ R6 Single Phase Inverter & TW Solar panels
I went through Solar Power Nation. Hassle free quote process. Install was available next day after I signed up.
One final quote received.
Canadian Solar panels
sungrow 10kW inverter
$8k
I'm leaning towards this quote
Is the federal government rebates on batteries for July 1confirmed?
I've got one installer saying yes let's install the battery now but don't turn it on until the 1st of July to claim the rebates. Then a second installer saying let's quote it up after first 1 July so we can know for sure what the rebates look like before committing.
Seems about right for a 10kW system. As per best practice, get a few quotes so you have some options.
FWIW, unless you use a lot of electricity during the day (and most people don't), you'll probably want to get a battery to maximise the benefit of having the solar. If you are going to get a battery, you should combine the two installations - save install costs, and some batteries will come with inbuilt inverters…etc. so you'll potentially save on duplicative equipment.