Private Sale Value & New Car Sales Trends (2000–2030 Outlook)
Hi All,
With many people questioning the private sale value of novated lease vehicles at lease end, I thought I’d dig into some pre-COVID numbers, look at how the market has shifted, and project where things may head by 2030.
I fed some sales data from 2000 and market values from Carsales and redbook into ChatGPT, which formatted my observations as below.
📊 New Car Sales Trends (2000–2024)
- 2000–2007: Steady growth, breaking 1M for the first time in 2007.
- 2008–2010 (GFC): Sales dipped but recovered quickly.
- 2012–2017: Strong rebound, peak of 1.19M in 2017.
- 2018–2022: Cooling economy and COVID shortages → ~680K fewer cars sold than trend.
- 2023–2024: Record highs (1.2M+), but really just catching up.
- Average vehicle age: ~10 years for decades, now stretched to 11.4 years in 2025.
🚗 Resale Values: 2019 Projections vs 2025 Reality
Back in 2019, resale projections assumed cars would hold 35–40% after 5 years. Instead, post-COVID conditions created a shock:
Private Sale Value as a % of 2019 On-Road Cost (2019 projection vs 2025 reality)
- Yaris: 42% → 84%
- i30: 42% → 64%
- Camry Hybrid: 33% → 70%
- ASX: 38% → 52%
- RAV4 Hybrid: 41% → 72%
- Forester: 43% → 61%
👉 Instead of the normal 60–70% loss in 5 years, many models kept 50–80% after 6 years.
📈 What Drove the Shift?
- 2018–2022 shortages reduced supply.
- RRP hikes (10–70% since 2019) lifted the benchmark for used cars.
- Cost-of-living squeeze meant fewer new purchases, longer ownership.
- Population growth (27.5M in 2025) outpaced supply.
- Demand for hybrids/EVs began to reshape the market mix.
⚡ EVs & Changing Market Dynamics
- 2022 sales: ICE 90.3%, Hybrids 7.8%, PHEVs 0.7%, BEVs 1.1%.
- 2025 sales: ICE 72%, Hybrids 14.9%, PHEVs 3.8%, BEVs 9.3%.
- Govt 2030 projection: 50%+ of all new sales to be EVs.
Resale examples already show the pressure:
- Toyota BZ4X: $66K RRP (2023) → ~$45K used in 2025 (-35% in 2 years).
- Tesla Model Y: also faced cuts due to intense competition from BYD, MG, and GWM.
🔮 5-Year Outlook (2025–2030)
RRP Growth Will Stall (Especially for EVs)
- Pre-COVID, prices barely rose (~10% over 20 years).
- COVID hikes were a one-off correction.
- Expect flat RRPs for ICE/Hybrids, and falling RRPs for EVs as competition intensifies.
Sales Mix Transformation
- By 2030: ICE <40%, Hybrids ~10–15%, BEVs >50%.
- This is the biggest shift in car sales since the 1980s.
Resale Value Divergence
- ICEs: Faster depreciation as taxes, fuel costs, and demand decline.
- Hybrids: Strongest near-term resale stability — “safe bet” for cautious buyers.
- BEVs: Highly volatile.
- Winners (Tesla, Toyota, Hyundai/Kia, BYD) will hold reasonably well.
- Losers may depreciate like smartphones as tech advances leave them behind.
Fleet Age Will Rise
- Ownership periods will stretch as buyers wait for cheaper, better EVs.
- Average age could climb beyond 12 years by 2030.
Depreciation Curve Reset
- Pre-COVID: ~60% loss in 5 years.
- COVID era: ~20–40% loss in 6 years (abnormal).
- 2030s:
- ICE: 65–70% loss in 5 years.
- Hybrids: 50–60% loss.
- BEVs: anywhere from 40% (winners) to 70%+ (losers).
💭 Takeaway
- The RRP boom is done. EV competition will put downward pressure on prices.
- Private sale values are abnormally high today but will ease back toward historical norms (~40-45% RRP after 5 years).
- Hybrids will dominate resale stability short-term, but EVs will define the next decade — with volatile resale values until the tech matures.
- For novated leases: the “positive equity” era is temporary, and picking the right drivetrain will matter more than ever.
❓ Discussion Points
- Will ICE resale collapse as EV adoption accelerates?
- Can hybrids hold their ground through 2030, or will they fade faster than expected?
- Which EV brands will dominate the new car market?
Total New Vehicle Sales (2000–2024)