Hi All,
Just wondering what is your thought of BITCOIN which is well over $15000 USD.
I was monitoring that since it was $1100. Now its 14x and i was thinking $#/+ that is expensive a year ago and now i am thinking the same.
Any thought what do you think of it.
[edit]
Its hit today $19230+ USD.
It will crash eventually, but still early. I'm no risk taker, but I could afford to lose $100, so my $100 has become $1500usd. Alot of wall street investor says that there is nothing wrong with putting 1% of your portfolio on risky investment for the high risk high returns.
it will crash when hackers steal a lot of it or when all the main countries governments (USA. UK etc) regulate it. Dont see happening anytime soon unless it get trace back to either bank fraud, money laundering or terroism.
No one knows when it will dip but when it does allot of people are going to pull out at the same time.. should go back down as fast as it went up.
What happens once all 21,000,000 bit coins are mined…Will the network lose 100% of its miners (AKA Servers) and 100% of its security…
Here you go.
This design is intentional: the difficulty of mining is built in to limit the number of bitcoins found each day. In addition, there's a hard limit on the number of bitcoins that can be mined: 21 million coins, which is expected to be reached by 2140.
AFAIK, as the cumulative computational power of the mining nodes increases, the difficulty in mining a block increases as a built-in regulation mechanism. Therefore, the yield per "unit time" reduces in a corresponding manner. This most likely means that in a graph where you have a mining yield (y) vs time (x), it will be asymptotic to the x axis; i.e. yield will diminish forever, yet not reach zero.
Re quantum computing, that is an interesting point and oft misunderstood by "normie" press. As Frugal Rock mentioned, there are very specific problem spaces where any headway has been made thus far. Relating to crypto, QC has made some very interesting progress in potentially breaking cryptosystems based on "IFP/DLP" (Integer factorisation Problem; Discrete Logarithmic Problem). This is due to the usage of Shor's algorithm that can be effectively utilised by the qubit (quantum unit of computing, akin to bits in conventional binary based computing) in QCs.
To combat the crypto-breaking potential of QC, there is substantial work involved among the cryptographers to create "Quantum-safe" algorithms. As an example, the Quantum Ledger guys are working on one such implementation for blockchain tech.
@gearhead: oh… So I shouldn't be sending nudes of my bum to people who say IANAL…
That explains the police…
@evgpek:
I don't know where you got your 100000000 times faster than personal computers in everything figure, as quantum computers are highly specialised and don't do even close to everything, let alone fast or faster. The article says that figure on a specific optimisation problem and you then apply that performance to everything, which is nonsense. Even rewriting the well understood and simple gcd algorithm in QC is hard work. I'll nominate the simple sorting of a billion element array or inverting a huge matrix as obvious counter-examples to your statement, but only a fraction of general computing problems can even be tackled using quantum computing, so your statement is wrong for the vast majority of computer science. Try encoding a movie using a quantum computer and see if you can get 100 million times the speed over gigabytes of input data.
A quote from the article even says "These performance numbers I'm citing are from corner cases that hit right on the quantum sweet spot. General computing use performance still lags and programming one of these beasts is still more art than science."
@Frugal Rock:
My point was that computers will be faster therefore all of the bitcoin will be mined much sooner that anticipated.
AFAIK = As far as I know.
Some others I've seen used a fair bit:
IANAL = I am not a lawyer.
IIRC = If I remember correctly.
IMHO = In my humble opinion.
So the last bit coin will be the hardest one to get and is expected to be extracted by 2140 … hmm :)
So if we never see a mass exodus away from bitcoin. 1 BC could and probably will get to 1 Billion US dollars per coin in value by around the 2140 timeframe going by its current growth rate
Should be interesting to see.. wish i got 1 bit coin at the bargain basement price of $26,000 Aussie Dollars back in 2017 .. or even better 1 BC at 0.1c in 2009 :)
If 1 coin got tot he point of being worth 1Billion USD our economy is (profanity), imagine the market cap!
@gpmd2157:
your estimate is based on the assumption that computers will only stay as powerful as they are today
meanwhile quantum computers are 100000000 times faster than personal computers in everything, including bitcoin mining.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/04/18/d_wave_demystifies_…
so @vid_ghost has a valid hypothesis once everything is mined music can stop
and that will happen much much quicker than 2140
Personally, I think at this stage of the game it's far too unpredictable. It's well past the point of it being an actual currency, as was it's intent. No one in their right mind is going to spend bitcoin to purchase something, lets say a coffee, when the next day that 'coffee' is worth twice as much. Buying bitcoin is essentially buying stock and is purely for investment at this stage to cash out into USD/AUD etc, you're not buying bitcoin to spend bitcoin.
Furthermore, it's become very mainstream. A year+ ago, if you asked a random person on the street chances are they wouldnt have heard of it. Now, most people have at least heard of bitcoin and heard of it's ridiculous exponential growth - they might not completely understand what bitcoins are, or cryptocurrencies in general but they have heard of it. My parents, who are in their 60s and almost illiterate when it comes to technology, have heard of bitcoin.
So essentially, you have all these people hearing of bitcoins success, wanting a piece of the pie and jumping on board - without really knowing much about investing or about cryptocurrencies. Which makes it far more unstable in my opinion. If the market is filled with people that don't really know what they're doing, it's not only unpredictable but much more likely to make kneejerk reactions.
Bitcoin right now is a big game of hotpotato for adults.
Bitcoin right now is a big game of hotpotato for adults.
This sums it up perfectly for me.
It'd be a complete lie to say I don't wish I'd bought some at the start of the year only to sell now.
But at the current state of things, I'm not sure I'm educated enough to jump in with my savings.
Also I can't help but think the absurd increase in price is mainly due to the media coverage coining it (lol, the pun) as the quickest way to your millionairhood.
(and the fact that every second post praising Bitcoin as the next best thing since sliced bread probably helps with introducing new players and thus increasing demand too)
Whether the increase is sustainable or not, only time will tell, me, personally I would hate to be the one with the potato when the music stops.
Yes I think buffet said once the majority of shareholders don't know what the stock actually does..it's intrinsic value…it's time to get out. I doubt more than half of investors in bit coin fully comprehend what block chains do or there value. Of course he could be wrong…if he actually said that …come to think of it maybe it was someone else
You pretty much put what I was thinking into words. Well done. Its super risky, and tbh I also don't see us using bitcoins to buy everyday items - I think it will eventually just be worth less and less and be gone one day. The people who actually control everything wouldn't let it happen.
The whole becoming mainstream is whats inflated the price so dramatically. The more people wanting invest in bitcoin assure it will only continue to rise in value for some time; how long that is no one knows. But once it eases and becomes less prevalent in media, is when it will decline.
That McAfee guy said he'll eat his own d*ck if bitcoin doesn't go to a trillion dollar in 2020.
McAfee guy said he'll eat his own d*ck
Will make an interesting viewing.
Are you sure trillion dollars?
I thought he said million dollars.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/john-mcafees-1-million-bitco…
That'll take a million d*ck to finish.
I'll send him some ketchup
Is USA printing more dollars? 😂
If you read about the Bitcoin project, you will know that the people in it ruined the project. The whole idea was to create an alternative to the "money" but since now they managed to tie it to the usd, the old school, the freedom and purpose of the project is gone. Also, the higher bitcoin goes, the harder it gets for people to get in, and easier it gets to short it, another reason for a collapse. The media has been advertising a lot of forecasts, the other day, somebody was forecasting bitcoin at 500,000, now 1M using famous names.
gotta risk it for the biscuit
nothing ventured nothing gained
The early bird gets the worm
Man who goes to bed with itchy arse wakes up with smelly finger.
Waitwut
A fool and his money are soon parted (partying).
Second mouse gets the cheese
There's no such thing as a free lunch.
What comes up, must come down!
I could go for a biscuit
Butter my biscuit
would you like me to assign someone to butter your biscuit?
There was a deal on Ozbargain two years ago for $5 of bitcoin from Circle (https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/196172).
I still have it and it's now worth about $500 :) Great bargain!
Forgot and checked my account. Best deal ever.
Wow, nice!
Damn I think I remember this deal and I couldn't be bothered.
Silly me!
Same! Bugger…
Instaban!
Good find…
Time to sell?
There's supposedly $140 million worth buried in a Welsh landfill dump.
That was yesterday.
Now it's worth $200million.
Joking, not joking
People who have it will say it's the best thing ever.
People who don't will say it's the stupidest thing ever.
Late 2013 I bought 1 BTC for about $1k and after a few weeks it dropped to about half. A few more weeks on, the price went back up so I promptly sold that 1 BTC and made about $10 profit. When the price dropped again and stayed low, I figured I made the right choice at the time.
Over that same period I also bought twelve GPUs (and associated PC gear) and mined a few alt-coins, never cashing any out. A few months later when the price of the alts also dropped to practically nothing I stopped mining, turned them off and dismantled the computers. Sold off most of the GPUs/other gear and kept four of the GPUs for my personal computers.
I had also bought seven USB BTC block erupters to try mining BTC with, but they never mined any significant amount of BTC. Definitely not enough to make a withdrawal from the mining site I was using before they shut down. I spent $120 on those USB things and they never mined me a profit. (Still got the ebay/paypal emails for their purchase - and looking at ebay now, recent completed sales of those USB block erupters have them sold for $80+ each! WTF?!)
Anyway, all up I think I spent about $4k-$5k on computer hardware and recovered less than half when I sold the majority of GPUs.
Earlier this year I noticed a number of forum postings about mining Ethereum which got me interested again, so dusting off those same old GPUs which were sitting unused I rebuilt a mining machine again. Couldn't mine ETH but I could mine ZCash and was earning about $2/day. A bit of research and calculations suggested that with new GPUs I could make my money back mining in about 100 days so back in I went and bought four new GPUs.
A few weeks later I finally managed to make my first cash withdrawal ever from mining profits (which was about what I was expecting to make from the calculations).
This was going into winter and I figured I'd keep mining and if the alt-coin prices crash again, at least my house will be warm. But my house isn't small so I'll need a few more miners, so I bought a lot more GPUs. (This was before that crazy spike in GPU prices). In total, I now have 25 GPUs mining away and spent about $7k setting it all up. My house was nice and warm this winter. At it's peak I was mining about $100/day but now it's dropped to about $35/day also now in summer I moved the miners out to the garage and shed.
Learning from my earlier experience in mining, I've been cashing out those mining profits every so often and have more than doubled my initial spend.
Had I just put that $7k into BTC, I'd be up maybe $50-$60k but who knew at the time that BTC would rise that much that quickly.
And those alt-coins I mined in 2013/2014 that I never cashed out? I mined four different coins, one doesn't exist anymore and two are worth maybe $200 total combined now.
The last coin I mined was Darkcoin and I managed to mine quite a few coins too. I've kept an eye on it over the years since I stopped mining, but watching the price rise over the last few months makes me a little nervous. It's now called Dash and the coins that I hold are worth close to a million dollars.
I've been so tempted to sell many times and seriously considered cashing it all out when it was at $100k, but thankfully I didn't. I have sold a few to cover pretty much everything I ever spent getting into cryptocurrencies. I don't know how much it would have to be worth for me to cash it all out either. The greedy gambler in me keeps saying to let it ride. If the prices crash to nothing I won't be struggling as I don't have any debts.
It would be really nice if it keeps going up like this though :)
If they are worth close to a million, surely you would cash out half at least in case they crash? Then no matter what happens, at least you've come out on top. If you lose it all it would be devastating.
Or at last cash out that 100k that you were keen on.
PS: I'm insanely jealous of these kind of stories, but unless I literally forgot about them, I wouldn't have the balls to make any significant profit regardless.
The last coin I mined was Darkcoin and I managed to mine quite a few coins too. I've kept an eye on it over the years since I stopped mining, but watching the price rise over the last few months makes me a little nervous. It's now called Dash and the coins that I hold are worth close to a million dollars.
Id you have nearly $1,000,000 in DASH, you probably have 1000 coins.
If that's the case, you should setup a masternode.
Last time I checked, dividends would be about 10%, so you'd have a passive income of almost $100,000.
You also get 1 vote for the projects the Distributed Autonomous Organisation (DAO) votes on.
Dash generates several thousand coins per month to allocate to these projects. They're usually marketing, hiring developers to build wallets, etec.
I was tempted to setup a masternode myself when it was only a few dollars per coin, but "Darkcoin" and the branding didn't sound very good at the time lol.
+1 for cashing out a portion. I remember back in 2008 I doubled my money in shares, only to watch it dwindle back down to 10% of what i invested.
I cashed out a decent amount a few weeks ago, cleared out some debt. It was too early and i missed out on a lot of gains, but i know i'd regret it if crypto had finally tanked and i missed my chance to clear out the debt.
I still have all the mining gear slowly earning back what i cashed out. Need to decide on a strategy of how to allocate the revenue, and how to cash out periodically. Eg, maybe every time the total value grows 10%, I cash out 1/10th of those gains.
Money makes a huge difference when you have none. An extra million is a pittance when you already have a million. I wouldn't take such a huge risk hoping for the moon, maybe diversify somehow so you can never be put in the position of starting over?
I was going to buy 1 at 10k aud a few weeks ago, but I just couldnt do it. I don't understand its value anymore, like I get how block chain works and decentralisation etc. but the whole basic principal of currency was versatility, Ive been told its too expensive to transact in bit coin now due to processing costs and initial buy in, so how different is it really to gold? Gold still has manufacturing qualities. I dont know but its becoming similar in its lack of versatility and purpose - "just a volatile money store". While, the gains and financial benefits of BC investing are undoubtable and highlighted by the charts, its just not my game. Id feel like Im just gambling, and Im much better at blackjack or poker than predicting a rise/fall in BC or cryptos.
BTC is heaps more useful for shifting money out of China to avoid currency controls.
BTC will crash the day the CCP makes owning BTC a capital offence.
I predict it won't be that long until this happens.
Its VERY versatile for shifting money. When I got taught about wallets etc. I was so surprised.
China banned BitCoin in September this year, and it caused a slump in its value.
However, it didn't crash.
And the fact that it didn't crash, and held most of its price put some "proof" in its value, and confidence rose.
So since then, its just gone up up and up.
The fear of China is/has subsided. Now its only a fear that it will get killed by other countries, or someone huge, like the Winklevoss brothers might suddenly sell which could cause a (small) crash, and that might turn into an avalanche and have more people/investors selling leading to an actual crash.
Despite all this, BitCoin is still the "safe bet" when it compares to other cryptocurrencies, even Ethereum, simply because its the largest, oldest, well-known.
Yes, that was exactly what I wanted to say. But you were more eloquent to put it.
If BitCoin doesn't crash and isn't killed and isn't regulated…. it will continue to climb.
And after a long time (many years?) (decades?), it will hit a recognisable standard.
I believe Ethereum has the potential to catch up, and then, surpass BitCoin. But not now.
It's still early days for BitCoin, which means its even earlier days for Ethereum.
However, the biggest threat to Ethereum isn't BitCoin… its the establishment affecting BitCoin.
It's possible BitCoin could crash, let's say Mid-2018 to USD$1000, which would devastate Ethereum and many other AltCoins.
BitCoin might be able to rebuild etc etc, however, many altcoins will not and that includes Ethereum.
Basically, its a clash of standards. Bitcoin is the front runner, Ethereum is a distant second but could/would overtake it, if the standard becomes accepted by the masses and forces the governing bodies to adopt.
The first time I heard of Bitcoin and read into it was in 2013, back when I was broke. I realised that people were buying AMD's better value GPU's for "mining" and that's how I got into it. I checked it back and forth, and concluded that it could be a Ponzi scheme or something that would be halted. I predicted its demise around 6 times. I predict its more likely NOW that it will still demise. But now I see potential, the potential to gamble with the hive mind and profit from it. That's where I'm at with it.
Despite all this, BitCoin is still the "safe bet" when it compares to other cryptocurrencies, even Ethereum, simply because its the largest, oldest, well-known.
BTC has brand name recognition and first mover advantage which is true. Yet BTC is only a currency, nothing more nothing less. Ethereum, however, is a lot more interesting and (IMHO) has the potential to disrupt a range of industries. Being a currency AND a platform for blockchain based smart-contracts I reckon (I may be completely wrong here) it is the better of the two in terms of utility.
@T1OOO: Which makes sense given the majority of BTC is now mined in China. They have massive farms there dedicated to getting them. The size is obscene.
The chinese are the main people who pumped up BTC price due to cheap power to generate BTC and also using it to take money out of China for other investments overseas. So You are on the right track as soon as governament bans it as an offence. It will drop significantly
If you bought BTC before, now its the time to sell
Its nothing like gold. Gold has intrinsic value and will always be sought after. BitCoins value is the limitation and versatility but eventually it will land back to $0 because there is no intrinsic value to it.
Ignoring the utility of gold in electronics and other places because of its properties, gold in itself has no value. Its value is only held because people think its valuable.
Thats how all fiat currency works, perception is what gives money value, theres no actual value in holding Australian paper notes or NZ or any other.
ahh hello….Jewelry?????
Silver, platinum, rhodium, titanium, tungsten, wood, plastic, stainless steel, jade, garbage you find in the street etc…
I have a gold ring, I'm probably more attached to the stainless steel one I also wear (valued at $0).
Next you be telling me diamonds are rare. Pfft, I've got a 1 caret diamond in my toolbox.
If you're talking rarity, try rhodium. Last time I looked it was about about $10,000 an ounce, gold is positively cheap by comparison. Used a lot in jewellery as a plating (shiny, hard, doesn't corrode etc), like platinum it gets used a lot in high temperature chemical stuff, such as catalytic converters. Also mirrors as well,
There are very few uses (if any) of gold where another metal can't be substituted or even perform better. I mentioned IC bonding wires, but many chips are made using aluminium, even copper gets used these days.
Gold and diamonds are valuable because like BitCoin we're somehow convinced they have value.
Having value is different from being useful.
Are you buying gold, BitCoin etc because you have a use for them (and jewellery making is a perfectly fine reason to buy gold) or as some sort of greed-driven vague 'investment'?
maluable
That's a bad thing, gold is actually crap for jewellery which is why any you own will be an alloy of some sort. And good luck making a knife or spear point out of it.
and shiny
Now you're talking. That's actually handy, lasers use mirrors that are coated with gold. However they are easily damaged so something like molybdenum or rhodium are often used instead. Not quite as good performance-wise but the difference is trivial.
As the noblest of metals it's really good at not corroding, but a bit useless in practice as it's too soft and easily damaged.
Gold isn't totally useless, but it really doesn't live up to it's (very long running) hype. I suspect the Reptilians are behind this.
True - but the perception that gold has value goes back thousands of years. It is also worth remembering that the worlds central banks hold almost 20% of the total gold ever mined - so they see value in it. Bitcoin is currently a failed currency as no-one wants to spend it (remember the 2 pizzas a developer bought for 10,000 bitcoin in 2010 - that's around $90million per pizza now).
Gold is Tangible. Bitcoin is elf money. So what it's finite it's still elf money.
Not quite sure what your arguing here.
You said gold was valuable because it can be used for jewellery. Well yes and so what, but that's not the reason it is "valuable".
What do you consider real money?
If by money you mean 'fiat currency', then BitCoin is money. It's no different to the Australian dollerydoo in that it is an agreed method which we can use to exchange goods & services - and considering everything except hookers & blow (well not always the hookers) is done virtually then we might as well use BitCoin.
(Money backed by a good that's considered valuable (like gold) is called commodity currency.)
At the moment BitCoin is valuable because it valuable, aka "what is a bubble?". Gold is really no different. If I gave you a lump of gold, what you you do with it?
@doodlebug:
Because you think you can trade your gold for one of my sticks, and I really need to get started on my stockpile.
But see, you've found a use for your gold! Force equals mass by velocity squared and halved and all that!
Tungsten or platinum would work better though. Lead is the best choice, you'd need twice as much but on the other hand lead is much easier to come by. Just how big of a lump to gold do you have?
hahahah perception….right.
I don't think so mate. try telling that to you wife or girlfriend.
Ask her if she will be happy with a shiny copper ring instead of a gold one.
Gold will always be wanted till the end of time.
Yeah, I don't get why gold is valuable either.
It has a few niche uses, as you mention electronics because it can be stretched thin and used as bond wires in ICs, (silver is actually a better conductor) and since it doesn't oxidise is handy as a 'rustproof' coating'.
It is a rather useless metal for the most part.
@D C:
Gold is money not because it is rare but because it is plentiful.
Something that is rare cannot be money.
This is one reason why bitcoin can not last as a currency. Bitcoin can be divisible however so I am not surprised if it lasts a little longer.
Gold is a real thing, so you dont need to convince people its value, people may value it more or less but it will never be 0.
BitCoin has no intrinsic value so you must convince people that its qualities are valuable enough that you can think it is money, but it is not.
Not quite sure what your arguing here. Seems like you are just rubbishing everything. What do you consider real money?
@D C:
Yeh I agree with you on everything by fiat currency and bitcoin.
It all a bit of a laugh.
But gold as a commodity currency by definition means its valuable. like any commodity.
If you gave me a lump of gold I would be able to buy or trade it in any part of the world. Gold has proven over time that it is reliable in this way.
My point is, fiat currency and bitcoin will eventually go bust one day.
Gold cannot, that being said gold is stable, if you want to make or lose a quick buck then you need to gamble on bitcoin or shares etc.
But gold as a commodity currency by definition means its valuable. like any commodity.
Gold cannot, that being said gold is stable,
Rubbish.
And where are all these commodity currencies anyway?
That's the worlds longest Ponzi scheme, gold it only valuable because people keep thinking it's valuable. They're not entirely sure WHY it's valuable, but eh.
See also BitCoin, tulips, diamonds, dotcom stocks etc.
When the zombie apocalypse comes, which is going to be more valuable, your lump or gold or my stick? I can use my stick to hit zombies, hit you and take your gold (and then throw it away), dig holes for water and as a spear to kill a kangaroo for dinner.
What are you going to do?
@D C:
Gold is nothing like bitcoin.
Diamond is in some ways, but it's still not exactly like bitcoin.
Gold primarily derives its value from history.
Gold jewelry was used as a sign of status - upper class vs lower class… far before it started to be used as currency and derived its value from this historic root.
Diamonds gained value through the debier family's actions combining clever marketing + controlled supply vs artificial demand.
Bitcoin has nothing.
You realise you just confirmed his point? His wife or girlfriend wants gold over copper as the perceives gold to be more valuable. If the world was telling her copper was the most amazing thing, she wouldnt want that crappy gold.
Gold primarily derives its value from history.
Not for everyone, the Aztecs thought it was worthless. They still used it as they liked the fact it was - as @bioset pointed out - malleable & shiny (+ didn't corrode) - but their attitude was similar to how we view tinsel: "Ohh shiny!" but no big deal when it winds up in the bin a few weeks later.
They were somewhat astonished as how the Spaniards went nuts over it.
You'll also note humanity had bronze and iron ages, but not a gold age.
@doodlebug:
"Tulips will always be wanted till the end of time"
-some Dutch guy early February 1637
@D C: Good points, but the Aztec didn't influence our society as it's run today.
Our influencers are the ancient Egyptians, Greeks, Romans, Brits, etc…
All of these used gold as signs of status difference - i.e. reserved for priests, nobles, etc.
And I guess that did come from the fact that it's shiny and has a pleasant colour (for some… I don't really like the colour).
For industrial use, bronze, iron, etc are much more valuable, and hence are a turning point in our history from a technological point of view. Gold never had a great industrial use… it was a more social element. We did have a number of "golden age"s, although they weren't about the use of gold to advance our technology.
Similar to gold today would range from the likes of lamborghinis and hermes handbags down to the latest iphones and the like.
Things you wear or use to show off without parading around like a clown yelling "I'm better than you coz I own 50000 bitcoins".
Our history has shaped our society to have gold represent "i'm better than you", just as the de bier family has shaped our society to have diamonds represent "forever" (even though diamonds can be destroyed).
This is what I thought when it first came out. It's being used to launder money in China apparently so it keeps on going up up up. Once stricter regulations come it will drop like a bucket. Its surprising they are taking so long to plug such a giant hole in the financial system.
I sold my very small parcel yesterday for good profit. Been around long enough to know that taking profit off the table is good and holding onto assets that are 'going to the moon' can result in losing said profit. Am looking at the alts now as I suspect money to be heading in to those when when BC gets listed on the futures exchange in a couple of weeks. Expect the players to start shorting it.
Well done.
There are plenty who will have made good profits if they would just crystallise them.
Yeah, been there, done that. :)
A bird in the hand and all that. :)
On this:
http://i0.wp.com/kunalonfintech.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/…
I think its because there has been a dynamic shift at play.
Most (50%) of the miners and investors of Bitcoin were from China, but now the biggest investors are in USA.
It wasn't overnight, its transitioned itself from end of 2015 to the start of 2017.
It's holiday season in USA now.
I think once school resumes, its going to be "back to work" period for many Americans.
That means they will have less free time to focus on Bitcoin, and more stress time to focus on family + work.
So the Hive Mind will want to sell, and selling begets selling, so the Bt price will slump.
A similar phenomenon occurs in the stock market, its cyclic.
Again, just a hunch or educated guesstimate. Still requires you to observe it carefully.
Call it futures or whatever. It's still gambling, if you ask me.
Overall, I expect Bitcoin to die eventually and countries using blockchain cryptology technology to transform their old currency into the new format (with some customisations, of course). I think, maybe, it will get as high as $50k and stabilise there. Then it could spike up as high as $150k before crashing down to like $35k, and barely making it to $50k level. That is, if it doesn't crash even earlier or doesn't get killed earlier.
My crystal ball says:
its going to slowly keep going up, and perhaps hit $13k-$15k, then on January 5-15, its going to crash down to like $9k.
If this transpires, its probably worth re-buying in Feb, but monitoring the stocks multiple times a day and also reading any mainstream coverage of the stuff for articles like this. You pretty much have to aim to predict the lows and sell on highs, its exactly like gambling, though with some skill/time invested (just like gambling), you can decrease your losses and increase your gains.
Well I've been in the "It's gonna crash tomorrow" camp for the longest time.
Not too sure anymore.
Still won't buy any though.