High Possibilities of Australia Going to a Financial Crisis and AUD/USD down to $0.50 USD

babablack on 03/05/2019 - 12:11
Last edited 03/05/2019 - 13:12 by 1 other user

Hi

I have done a lot of research around our economy and have consulted professionals in technical analysis. since 2017 they were all telling me Australia is doomed to have a housing crisis and also loosing a lot on its AUD value.

Its very much possible AUD goes down to 50cents USD so almost like $2 AUD = $1 USD. Charts are NOT lying. it doesnt matter how many times media or government tries to say everything looks ok.

I am very afraid my self for the next couple of years and for sure cost of living goes up a lot when our AUD value goes down so much. right now AUD/USD=0.699. It had the $0.7 support line for a long time but its likely to break.

just wanted to share my opinion here. anyones welcome to debate it.

General Discussion

Comments

  • [Deactivated] on 03/05/2019 - 12:16
    +48

    research around our economy and have consulted professionals in technical analysis.

    Are you a journalist? This is journalist lingo for, "I want to write this without being able to substantiate".

    … Cost of living goes up a lot when our AUD value goes down…

    Maybe a little. Cost of imported goods goes up a lot. Most of these goods are not necessities.

    • EightImmortals on 03/05/2019 - 12:58
      +2

      Here's a monthly chart of the AUD V USD, as you can see from the white spot at the top there (May 2011) it has been going down against the USD for the last 8 years. If it breaks support at 67.368 there's not much in the way of seeing it drop to the May 2008 low of 59.9 or lower.

      https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/10107937/audusd-r-mn1-first-p…

      • Scrooge McDuck on 04/05/2019 - 15:09
        +16

        We're all DOOMED!!

        Wait… you forgot to tell us what you're selling.

    • sir_bazz on 03/05/2019 - 14:24
      +18

      Yes our imports become more expensive as the AUD Falls but the flip side is that our exports become relatively cheaper too, (not just mining and manufacturing, but also our tourism and education sectors), for the rest of the world to purchase as well. Our products become more competitive on international markets.

      This helps "balance" any softening in retail sales that can occur when our local currency drops so can think of it more of a shift in the economy than a catastrophe on the horizon.

      • [Deactivated] on 03/05/2019 - 14:27
        +11

        You sound like someone who owns a business and/or understand economics.

        OP is a "purist consumer".

      • virhlpool on 05/05/2019 - 00:13
        +2

        There's no education sector when immigration is strict. Not many students come here to 'study' and then 'go back' to their country.

        • Other on 05/05/2019 - 16:41
          +3

          yeah this. I know people who just do courses one for no other purpose but just to stay.

        • macrocephalic on 07/05/2019 - 12:19
          +2

          That's strange, because I am involved with a university affiliated sporting club. Every year we get new international students, and every year we lose ones who are going home. I can't [off the top of my head] think of any international students who have stayed for more than 3 years.

      • Bargain80 on 06/05/2019 - 13:50

        there's winner and loser on either side

      • Hasbulla on 06/05/2019 - 21:38
        +1

        just finished watching 4 corners: it takes some guts to take pride in our education sector.

      • Harold Halfprice on 08/05/2019 - 18:46
        +1

        Our education sector is already set to overtake the UK and become 2nd in the world for most popular destination for international students.

        • Kendaric on 12/05/2019 - 14:48

          That's because everyone passes.

          Our new educational user pays system means that if you turn up for almost all lessons, you are literally guaranteed a pass.

          Quasi education is the new industry in itself, and is self promoting, and encouraged by the government - keeps unemployment figures down and is an export bonus for the coffers.

          Yeah! more educated idiots who think they actually know something.

    • [Deactivated] on 04/05/2019 - 11:00
      +6

      Journalists know how to spell, use correct grammar and capitalise.

      • jacharya on 08/05/2019 - 08:35
        +2

        Are you sure about that?

    • chk on 04/05/2019 - 23:18

      OP, I'm with TShow, please share your research which you have done "a lot of" with us

    • Helmuth on 07/05/2019 - 10:32
      +1

      Most of these goods are not necessities.

      How about fuel? We import most of that and it has ripple down effects through most of the economy

      • [Deactivated] on 07/05/2019 - 10:43
        +1

        Most of these goods are not necessities.

        Ripple down effects also work via affordability. Cost of fuel goes up, price of everything goes up, expandable income goes down, market price for property goes down. Interest rates go down to compensate, mortgage repayments go down.

        Ripple effects work both ways and largely nullifies one another especially in context of $0.7 to $0.50 currency devaluation. We're not going to see anywhere close to the linear ~30% increased cost of goods and services.

  • TheBilly on 03/05/2019 - 12:17
    +13

    They were all telling me Australia is doomed to have a housing crisis and also loosing a lot on its AUD value

    What determines a crisis? If before a boom houses all cost $200k, after boom they cost $800k, then there is a crash and they drop to $600k, this is still $400k from where it started. It really comes down to the point in time you choose to start looking at your data, the longer your time frame, the more variables you have to add into the mix.

    I am very afraid my self for the next couple of years

    What are you afraid of?

    • [Deactivated] on 03/05/2019 - 12:18
      +60

      Cost of that OLED TV going up.

      • smartazz104 on 04/05/2019 - 15:15
        +2

        But TV prices keep falling, the TV market must be doomed!

      • idonotknowwhy on 04/05/2019 - 13:26
        +16

        Is that a song?

        • Scrooge McDuck on 04/05/2019 - 14:58
          +37

          They paved paradise
          And put up a parking lot
          With a pink hotel, a boutique
          And a swinging hot spot

          Don't it always seem to go
          That you don't know what you've got
          Till it's gone
          They paved paradise
          And put up a parking lot

          They took all the trees
          Put 'em in a tree museum
          And they charged the people
          A dollar and a half just to see 'em

    • ely on 08/05/2019 - 21:29
      +2

      A house going from 200k to 800k is a crisis. Dropping back to 600k is a promising start, but still a long way short of what's needed.

  • CyberMurning on 03/05/2019 - 12:19

    Im more worried we don't get supply of eneloops

    • [Deactivated] on 03/05/2019 - 12:25
      +21

      Simple solution.

      1. Convert all your AUD to USD now. When it drops to 2:1, convert back.

      2. Buy eneloops before price adjustment.

      3. Profit.

      Seriously, if OP is so worried and is so certain, he/she should put their money where their mouth is. Go short on the AUD. Be a millionaire soon.

      NB. No one actually does this or admits to it because either they know their claim is flaky at best, or they are financially rekt from said short.

      • Never Pay RRP on 04/05/2019 - 19:32
        +1

        they are financially rekt from said short

        Unless you used leverage on your short, it should actually cost you nothing. I.e. the simplest short of AUD/USD is to just buy USD using AUD.
        I actually get paid (very small amount) to hold USD positions due to our interest rate differential.
        Having said that I am not advocating the position of the OP, I just recently closed a lot of my USD trades because I fear a short term AUD rebound

    • altomic on 03/05/2019 - 13:20

      LADDAs

      • [Deactivated] on 03/05/2019 - 13:33
        +3

        Batteries that require you to run around an Olympic stadium to qualify for purchase.

        • altomic on 03/05/2019 - 14:43

          you dont have an eneloop powered scooter?

          • [Deactivated] on 03/05/2019 - 14:44

            @altomic: Maybe I do and that's why I don't need LADDAs.

    • therichardsons on 04/05/2019 - 11:18

      Convert your AUD to Eneloops now before the crash

  • CyberMurning on 03/05/2019 - 12:20
    +5

    I am confirming this is true.
    .
    .
    .

    According to my crystal ball.

    • Scrooge McDuck on 04/05/2019 - 15:04
      +16

      The line squiggled up and down three times, therefore we're all doomed!

      — Technical Analysis.

      • Musing Outloud on 06/05/2019 - 15:55

        Nice Mr Squiggle! How's Sam Steamshovel?

      • ely on 08/05/2019 - 21:31

        Technical analysis is like numerology, but more science-esque.

  • Heaps for Cheaps on 03/05/2019 - 12:25
    +5

    Maybe you could setup a bank account with USD to hedge your bets. That way if the Australian $ goes down then you win.

  • whooah1979 on 03/05/2019 - 12:26
    +24

    Australian farmers produce most of the foods that we eat. The cost of Iphones may go up, but at least many of us may still be able to feed ourselves.

    BTW Skip the junk that comes from overseas. Support Australian farmers and our economy by buying Australian made food.

    • LFO on 04/05/2019 - 21:44
      -2

      Australian farmers produce most of the foods that we eat

      Most of the food we buy says imported or from imported sources.

      Yes bananas are local … 'cause the goverment blocks imported Chiquita from Ecuador

      • whooah1979 on 04/05/2019 - 21:59
        +7

        I don't know what food you eat, but we eat mostly Australian made and grown produce.
        https://www.nff.org.au/farm-facts.html

        Australian farmers produce almost 93 percent of Australia’s daily domestic food supply.

        http://www.agriculture.gov.au/ag-farm-food/food

        We are able to export more than half of our agricultural produce, while more than 90 per cent of fresh fruit and vegetables, meat, milk and eggs sold in supermarkets are domestically produced.

      • Gnostikos on 07/05/2019 - 13:41

        Most of the food we buy says imported or from imported sources.

        What nonsense.

        Most fresh produce sections of supermarkets and fruit & veg stores are 90% or more Australian-grown.

        You must be referring to processed foods or visiting dodgy Asian greengrocers or something.

        • EnALup on 07/05/2019 - 13:44

          True. Out of season fruit is normally imported stuff.

          • Gnostikos on 07/05/2019 - 14:40

            @EnALup: Even the out of season stuff is overwhelmingly locally-sourced.

            As an example, here in Perth, I eat strawberries all year round that come from within 50km of the metro area.

            The notable exceptions I see are Citrus fruits like oranges, which can be Egyptian or American, depending on the time of year.

            • EnALup on 07/05/2019 - 18:50

              @Gnostikos: Interesting. I often find out of season grapes and cherries from US.

            • Diji1 on 08/05/2019 - 23:11

              @Gnostikos: How can you be eating out of season produce grown locally though?

    • virhlpool on 05/05/2019 - 00:18
      +3

      Apart from food, we don't produce/ manufacture anything though. We import all from China.

      • brendanm on 05/05/2019 - 10:39
        +2

        Blatantly false

        • Minimum chips on 06/05/2019 - 21:12
          +1

          I mean, mostly false, but we don't make cars here anymore.

          If it made economic sense to build them in Australia, but based on Japanese or German designs not the shitty American ones, that would actually be a good thing.

          • Diji1 on 08/05/2019 - 23:17
            +1

            @Minimum chips: The reason it "makes economic sense" for Germany to build cars is that they legislated worker representation into their businesses.

            Businesses with over 50 million Euros turnover must have 50% worker representation in their management structures so the workers voted to keep their jobs and Germany has one of the strongest economies in the world.

            Whereas Australians are completely brainwashed by neoliberalism so they voted to remove workers rights and now Australia has a pathetic manufacturing sector as the owner class moved jobs out of the country and national median income is down to $44,000 in 2018. It has been dropping for over 30 years now.

            • superValue on 08/05/2019 - 23:48
              +1

              @Diji1: Maybe you could have adopted the same approach as Germany when you were trying to sell your laptop and you would have got more for it.

              Is this your area of expertise?

              And where did you get this from:

              Businesses with over 50 million Euros turnover must have 50% worker representation in their management structures?

              As per my knowledge this I'd dependent on the number of staff but I could be wrong.

              And this statement

              so the workers voted to keep their jobs and Germany has one of the strongest economies in the world.

              Which workers wouldn't vote to keep their jobs?

              And this your reasoning for why Germany is successful in manufacturing and marketing cars globally?

        • Other on 08/05/2019 - 15:59

          Change it to a bit false. We hardly manuf anything here; stuff we do manuf is more custom stuff that is hard to import, and then usually the steel/parts are imported).

      • bigbadboogieman on 05/05/2019 - 14:58
        +2

        Food is all I need mate. I can live with leaves strapped around my body near a warm campfire at nights if I am well fed. Even better during Aussie summers. Hahaha

      • humdingaling on 06/05/2019 - 11:21

        its stopped being just made in china quite some time ago

        now…there is made in India, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and many other countries where you can get cheap labour and favourable tax rates

      • abb on 06/05/2019 - 14:34
        +1

        we don't produce/ manufacture anything though

        I guess all those factories are just sitting dormant and paying their employees to stare at the ceiling?

  • [Deactivated] on 03/05/2019 - 12:32
    +27

    Please don’t scare people.
    Thanks

    • khomeini on 04/05/2019 - 16:43

      Are you planning to fix whatever it is we're now scared of. Just tell me which way to vote damnit!!

      • tessel on 04/05/2019 - 18:12
        +2

        Donkey

  • Skramit on 03/05/2019 - 12:34
    +10

    lol I love these threads.

  • kolorijo on 03/05/2019 - 12:35
    +6

    omg omg omg omg *hit the wall in panic

    • humdingaling on 06/05/2019 - 11:22

      the wall that trump built?

      • Musing Outloud on 06/05/2019 - 15:56

        The wall that Trumpty Dumpty might fall off?

  • christopher8827 on 03/05/2019 - 12:35
    +11

    Technical analysis is bullshit tho.

    • funnysht on 03/05/2019 - 12:40
      +2

      it's prob better than most other forms of analysis, technical analysis gives you an idea of direction, rate, and momentum, how do you find that out from simple 'research'

    • mskeggs on 03/05/2019 - 21:35
      +4

      Agreed. Read a random walk down Wall Street if you think technicals are any use.
      I think technicals have a tiny influence from the minority of TA traders, and it only emerges occasionally when the market is bereft of fundamental news.
      And only then for the most obvious, blatant indicators.
      TA traders can’t agree among themselves when their candles or bull horns or descending triangles or RSI or 90day ma or whatever point the same way in advance.
      Technicals are 95% garbage except maybe some of the time in commodities or FOREX, when the TA traders make their own reality in a vacuum of news.
      The TA gets swamped at the merest hint of a real fundamental.

    • peejay on 06/05/2019 - 13:00
      +1

      Agreed. My theory is that it only works because lots of people think it works, and act accordingly. Sentiment and popular opinion has far more effect imho. Humans being human and all that…

  • holdenmg on 03/05/2019 - 12:37

    Fairly sure you can back your hunch to set off a downturn…

  • GG57 on 03/05/2019 - 12:40
    +1

    So the advisers have been telling OP this for 2 years or more? I wonder when they expect it to happen, as that is the key question.
    I doubt any of them took a position on these forecasts and are still holding those same positions years later.

    • [Deactivated] on 03/05/2019 - 12:45
      +34

      Charts are NOT lying.

      • Krankite on 03/05/2019 - 13:04
        +14

        good point but I've consulted Shakira's hips and while things may be a little shaky at the moment the historical data shows we will return to a smoother ebb and flow soon.

        • [Deactivated] on 03/05/2019 - 13:19
          +9

          Those hips did lie about 14.5 million euros of tax evasion. Avert your eyes.

  • [Deactivated] on 03/05/2019 - 12:44
    +9

    I think a thorough investigation would yield that losing has one 'o'.

    • bigbadboogieman on 05/05/2019 - 15:00

      A gradually lowering currency rate trend isn't exactly bad for economy. It improves export viability.

  • Ocker on 03/05/2019 - 12:55
    +18

    As a (ex) professional FX trader with 25 years experience I can assure you that any forecast on the future value of the AUD/USD to be correct will be more good luck than anything else.

    • Other on 05/05/2019 - 16:44
      +1

      fundamentals don't affect future value?

  • blitz on 03/05/2019 - 12:59
    +3

    It had the $0.7 support line for a long time but its likely to break.

    So what have you done about it, OP? Have you purchased USD to hedge against this? If you really believe this is likely, then tell us what steps you've taken.

    • babablack on 03/05/2019 - 13:21
      -4

      yes, i bought gold when it was about $1560 AUD. now its around $1800 i think.

      • wiipantz on 04/05/2019 - 13:08
        +6

        lol

      • smartazz104 on 04/05/2019 - 15:17
        +1

        Now invest in USD.

      • Devils Advocate on 06/05/2019 - 22:32
        +1

        If only you’d bought equities you would be much much better off. If you’d bought US equities then you also would have benefited from the currency movement as well as 30%+ returns from the equities.

        Gold shouldn’t be bought as an investment, only as a hedge for your other investments and in very small amounts. You and the other Chicken Littles of the world will come to learn that, probably the hard way unfortunately.

  • [Deactivated] on 03/05/2019 - 13:11
    +4

    Sorry, I have bigger issues to worry about.

    https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/food/eat/woman-shares-secr…

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