A big drop in today's share market, how low can it go?
Lowest so far: 4546 on 23 Mar 2020.
How Low Can ASX 200 Go?
chansc on 09/03/2020 - 11:09
Last edited 01/04/2020 - 11:36 by 1 other user
Last edited 01/04/2020 - 11:36 by 1 other user
Poll Options
- 55888 (today's lowest point so far)
- 85601 to 5888
- 215401 to 5600
- 65201 to 5400
- 145000 to 5200
- 3594801 to 5000
- 64601 to 4800
- 134401 to 4600
- 74201 to 4400
- 94001 to 4200
- 111Below 4000
- 5Below 3000
- 13Below 2000
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Comments
Institution have trillions to invest right now looking for stocks
You got it backwards.
The market is falling.
The PE ratio from marketindex.com.au is calculated only up to Nov 2019, so that needs to be taken into account.
Based on some very casual market research generally these big corrections can hit 25-30% market correction so could have a ways to go yet albeit racing there!
ASX has already fallen around 18% since the high of last month
When people start predicting how low the market can go, it signals the bottom is almost in
because?….
Yep. Just because
Because the market is forward looking.
format fail….
Full blown GFC in the making …
Crude Oil has just gapped down to $32.50, which is usually an indicator of a global recession. Saudi Arabia has slashed its export oil prices to try to bankrupt Russia and Iran (and win the ME war - so that wont end soon). This has unexpected and devastating consequences on other oil exporters like Venezuela, Nigeria, Angola, American oil companies, etc.
Lebanon has just defaulted on its debt and the EU banks are the most exposed and already weak due to negative interest rates.
There appears to be a full blown banking crisis and a run on the banks happening in India …
https://news.bitcoin.com/bank-crisis-spreads-in-india-deaths…As the coronavirus infections cause businesses shut their doors and employees are stood down, who is going to pay their loans and mortgages? Consequently, the number of non-performing loans is about to go through the roof. Which bank will be the first to raise the white flag? HSBC? Deutsche Bank?
https://markets.*.com/news/stocks/d...p-hsbc-banks-cut-30000…
Even bitcoin is getting smashed today.
Even bitcoin
People don't run to high risk assets when the market tanks.
i thought bitcoin was created for GFC
It was created to essentially pay people for maintaining the disturbed ledger that is block chain.
gold up soon ?
Already is
Which bank will be the first to raise the white flag? HSBC? Deutsche Bank?
lol how alarmist are you?
Well, you dont usually lay off 30,000 employees when things are going well?
BTW here's the proper link, just noticed my other one wasn't working. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/deutsche-ban…
"alarmist"… I suggest realist.
In 1992 Westpac nearly fell over losing a paltry 1.6billion from memory.
In Oct 2008 the Deposit Guarantee was introduced when Suncorp were under a lot of stress.
We now have Neobanks offering "loss leader" term deposit rates .. no better example of risk v reward.
IMHO the first one e of these institutions to fail is only days away.
The flood of banning withdrawals and redemptions will shortly begin
Btc is getting smashed by something else altogether, not just the market.
At this point its hard to put a finger on whether theres a positive correlation between both
Considering it's speculative but actually worth around $100USD per BTC that's not surprising…
you just said its speculative so how do you even know its actual worth? you just stabbed yourself there mate
@Ghosteye: Not really, it's basic economics but price and worth (and value) are not the same.
BTC (like most other crypto) has price fluctuations while value and worth remain almost unchanged.
As liquidity inevitably tightens (but also as agencies like IRS/ATO go after past and current traders for revenue) prepare for crypto to be smashed worse than any regulated market.
@buffalo bill: basic economics is knowing that anything is only worth as much as the amount the next sucker is willing to pay for it.
you speak as if you know and that BTC is subject to normal market conditions and theories, and yet you have not said a thing as to how you got your magical 100USD valuation.
As liquidity tightens? have you seen the numbers? the btc/usd trading pair daily volume has only risen despite the price drop, so where are you basing that info off? and what does IRS/ATO have anything to do with less liquidity? the only thing they're coming for now is capital gain, and that's basically the same as trading stocks or anything else. When has the taxman stopped anyone from trading anything?
You can come back here and tell me I'm wrong, but I'm a numbers man and unless you show me some numbers that prove otherwise, I don't believe you CAN place a price valuation on BTC or any other crypto for that matter.
It's all speculative.
@Ghosteye: Think global market liquidity, rather than just BTC.
Anyway, they're just points to be reflected on, time will tell.
Great analysis, with one exception: printing press aka QE
Simply, most banks can print us out of it.
Nothing is there to stop it, unless you have other views?
I'd be keen to hear, cheers
well America is bankrupt -can never repay its debts - so economic theory has been absent from the markets for at least 20 years - that means that rationale is also absent and its all about politics, which is what happened last crash when taxpayers bailed out crooked pollies and bankers.
same old same old
….6.2%….
I believe the lowest it can go is zero.
Finally a realistic answer.
Came here for this. Take my +
And now the AUD is down to 63c, not too long ago (2011) it was almost double that. Nice job.
https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/11451229/audusd-r-h4-first-pr…
Importing with the 10% Gerry Harvey Tax and a "Dollar" this low, nah…
Time to go to Chile or Brazil.
where do you see AUD is at 63c?
Was 63c in intraday trading. If you're not a day trader, just step off man.
I don't trade. I just have a large sum of usd at overseas. Might cash in if AUD hits 60c
And in 2011, Labor's treasurer Wayne Sean was voted the best treasurer in the world.
I'm worried about the conservatives being in charge. A good read below:
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2020/03/08/michael-pascoe-mo…
The average AUD / USD FX rate over the last 30 years is 76c
Cherry picking a comparison to the record historical high from 9 years ago is a bit arbitrary.
In early 2001 the FX rate was .49. Still a way to go.
not too long ago… only close to a decade, you know recently. FML
Wow, what a day! Even with my mostly counter cyclical portfolio, I saw a five-figure drop in value. Vanguard Aussie Shares ETF was down 7.3%. Gold was only up slightly.
Crikey the ASX is down 7.9%! The yanks could be in for a messy day also.
I'll give an up-vote to whoever can post the highest loss to their portfolio value :-)
Nearing 6 figures, fml
Oh well don’t need it atm
@Donaldhump: FML = fudge my life? Anyway, here's an up-vote to cover some of your losses and get you back on your feet.
@kahn: Over 6 now by a long way ,but will ride it out and if still low in July buy in bulk , depressing but can’t do much
Let's not turn this into r/wallstbets!
Would buying ETFs such as vanguard and afi be a good idea or would standard shares be a better choice as the market goes downwards?
"Standard shares"? I've just invested in LOL.
or you could just answer the question
Covid 19 being used as a scapegoat for the orchestrated market downturn by the global cabal
2008 will be a walk in the park folks
Don't worry - central banks will just lower their interest rates close to zero…oh darn, they already have.
@Jason Genova
This is plausible.
The run up over the last few years couldn't last forever.
They just needed something to blame it on and divert attention from the real culprits.
S&P 3800 and still holding my PUTS and shorts on MQG.
should be maybe another 10% to 5200-5400, then things will get back to normal. bond yields are too low, therefore investors will have no where else to get real returns from their cash except stocks.
When people are punching on in the supermarket because of toilet paper, indicates "normal" is still some time away
What i meant by "normal", means world market behavior normal, not australia's civil society normal. I'm not a psychiatrist.
It's funny to read this optimistic and unrealistic opinion after 4 days. It's 4932 right now, with a lot of space to sink even further before things are back to normal.
This is just a reaction to trumps unexpected announcement. Almost everyone was blindsided by the EU travel ban.
Still funny because of how wrong it was.
Only time will tell how much more wrong it will be.
Back to 5400 now.
Time to buy IVV
I prefer IWLD for completeness, and the hedged version, 50/50.
Don't try to pick the bottom, look up Dollar Cost Averaging. If you have money to play with, and are looking for long term investment, buying the index over the next few weeks/months could be a great opportunity.
My $10k PUTS as insurance 6 weeks ago is worth $310k today. Woohoo.
What is this? Im interested
you buy an any asset house/car/company (stocks) and you buy insurance to protect it
which company offers this?
How can you protect house?
Did you go options , warrants or CFD's ?
Obviously options - he said puts
So you've actioned it and are a happy man now right?
RIGHT???If he made 310k on puts he would have just sold the actual option and not exercised unless he had the underlying assets and was hedging his portfolio which I highly doubt.
What did you buy puts on? Strike and expiry?
Seeing you capitalise PUTS and then giving the worst explanation on what a put option is lends me to believe you are talking out your ass
Edit: I’d also advise to keep your mouth shut in person if you’re telling people how much cash you’re making on the economy going down the toilet. I’m also an options trader with a wholesale account and do not openly advertise my short position and puts
Hey there, I’m interested in buying options, what do you use and any additional places do you use for research on the greeks?
I know Commsec and NAB offer options trading on Aus equities. As an aside, option pricing for most puts right now have massive IV and you’ll be paying a huge premium unless you’re buying puts real far OTM.
The ASX website has a real good course on understanding options (amongst many other good courses), you should start there. It should be under the education part of the website. Hell, even read a university finance text book.
Also options aren’t the only way to profit or protect your assets in a bear market, you can also buy inverse ETFs.
You know the saying "A recession is when your friends loses his job. Depression is when you lose yours!!"
OSH,STO, WPL if oil is in $20-$25 range.
Totally. Also check out SXY, interesting little company
Although I expect oil to remain suppressed for some time - 3-6 months?
How do you pick which shares to buy before the market picks up?
Like this thread. Put a question on OzBargain.
stay in cash, you don't try to catch a falling knife, wait till the dust clears in a month or two.
Is cash the same as bond? I put all my super in bonds
Take a guess - if you score big tell everyone it was your brilliance and genius.
If you make a loss blame it on the market and how unpredictable it is.
Works for most.
Over -9000!
Just wait for unemployment to increase then bang! Recession, depression and housing market collapse.
Second worst day for the S&P/ASX 200 since the index launched in April 2000
10/10/08 -8.34%
9/3/20 -7.33%
22/1/08 -7.05%
16/10/08 -6.66%
13/11/08 -5.86%
17/4/00 -5.40%
8/10/08 -4.99%
17/9/01 -4.69%
23/10/08 -4.37%
6/11/08 -4.31%
Top 200 with high yield which has dropped 30% should be on your raider. Anything essential related stocks and virus related stocks are worth a look:
FOD, KTD, A2M, CSL, WES
-700pts or 12% fall on the S&P today I recon. Margin calls will/has been triggered.
I think down 4-5% is more likely, not sure if the panic is that crazy!
futures down -679pts. Aussie market is weighted down by banks and resources.
At 7.55am AEDT, futures are pointing to a fall of 273 points, or 4.8 per cent, at the open.
You might want to double check the accuracy of your source…
See the PPT in action! :)
Trading on US stock exchanges was halted immediately after opening on Monday as the S&P 500 fell seven per cent, triggering an automatic 15-minute cutout that was put in place after the 2008-9 financial crisis.
The forced freeze was a sign of unprecedented volatility for Wall Street amid the most turbulent trading in recent memory. Another 15-minute halt will be triggered if the S&P 500’s losses hit the 13 per cent threshold. In the event of a 20 per cent decline, markets would shut down for the day.
The first-ever halt initially seemed to have a stabilising effect, spurring a mini-rebound in all US indices when trading resumed, before they started falling again. By early afternoon, the Dow was down 2000 points, or about 7.8 per cent. The S&P 500 was 7.1 per cent lower and the Nasdaq was off 7 per cent.
The Australian sharemarket faces another day of heavy falls, with futures at 5.45am AEDT pointing to a tumble of 290 points, or 5 per cent, at the open. On Monday, the ASX shed 7.3 per cent, its second-worst session in history.
Add Italy shut down future currently at 5380 . Probably another government stimulus will give a short term bounce but I'd say still going much lower like 4500 with Recession and US under testing where we will probably see expansion like Italy when true numbers are shown . The death rate vs cases show this in the data . I would close the US flights off . I know the political ramifications .
I just noticed that the most viewed stock on SelfWealth is BetaShares Australian Equities Strong Bear Hedge Fund (BBOZ). Everyone's spooked :-)
Note: BBOZ provides investors with a simple way to profit from, or protect against, a declining Australian sharemarket. A 1% fall in the Australian share market on a given day can generally be expected to deliver a 2.0% to 2.75% increase in the value of the Fund (and vice versa).
made a quick buck with BBOZ this week. since the market roared back on friday afternoon, i think it's ripe for another short trade. gotta love volatility.
Still above the average PE long term average : https://www.marketindex.com.au/statistics
But I think now is the time because of the low interest rates world wide to figure out good dividends stocks that aren't greatly effected by the virus .
Institution have trillions to invest right now looking for stocks and these are attractive .
Do that I think with the cycle of US presidential election and late in the year you will be grateful .