A big drop in today's share market, how low can it go?
Lowest so far: 4546 on 23 Mar 2020.
How Low Can ASX 200 Go?
chansc on 09/03/2020 - 11:09
Last edited 01/04/2020 - 11:36 by 1 other user
Last edited 01/04/2020 - 11:36 by 1 other user
Poll Options
- 55888 (today's lowest point so far)
- 85601 to 5888
- 215401 to 5600
- 65201 to 5400
- 145000 to 5200
- 3594801 to 5000
- 64601 to 4800
- 134401 to 4600
- 74201 to 4400
- 94001 to 4200
- 111Below 4000
- 5Below 3000
- 13Below 2000
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Comments
It’s just global panic. The fundamentals were there for new higher highs. Stop reading the panic headlines and do your homework. Buffett has been cashing up for awhile now. When he buys as he did in the GFC by putting $10bil into Wall Street @ 10 % interest you can put clean undies on and go about your business. Trump will be re-elected and the lunacy will continue. The market will go higher because it’s the money men who keep him there just like they did with Reagan. A dip in the markets results in the losses being suffered by the little people and Wall Street mop up and gets the profits from the rebound. The money men live for times like this. Look to history for your answers.
If you think I’m talking rubbish just compare the Dow to the ASX over the last 30 years and see how much richer you would be if you had your money in Wall Street.
So when should we jump in, as soon as Buffet does?
That would be the best signal. I have already converted my super from property to international shares but I like a gamble
really? Now is not the best time to change to shares.
Collapse in bank hybrid prices interesting
NAB are right in the middle of an issue @$100 to get tier one capital.
The very similar SUNPH is trading 10.3% underwater .
Are hybrid bonds the ones they were going to convert into useless shares once things tanked?
lol…yes.
Glad I'm in the US market instead of the AU one.
US market isn't much better right now either.
I regret being in the US market. Should have exited completely much earlier.US/AUD saves you though, the AUD falls completely negated the drops
No, it doesn't. The recent share price drop was far too great and the exchange rate is another big issue. The banks here simply rip you off when converting. It's really annoying. I get better exchange rate in many other airports (except Australian airports) than any of the banks here.
The US market is ALWAYS better off. Can you see the Dow going back to GFC levels? No, but nobody will be surprised if the ASX does.
You were referring to the bank shares here I think. Most of the quality ASX shares are nowhere near GFC levels. There are actually some which drops far less percentage than Tesla, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon etc…
Also, MQG share price is nowhere near the GFC level. Do you seriously expect MQG to drop to $16.97 soon?There are some USA shares which performed poorly in the last 12 months. So this "always" better is just not right. You cannot just buy ANY USA stock, you still have to do your research.
Dropped to 3500 after GFC. <5000 easily. Don't forget, that was during a financial crisis that primarily affected the US market that had ripple effect to the world economy. This is notwithstanding the huge buffer that Australia got in accordance with #Kevin'07 partnership with China that brought billions in stimulus to the Australian economy through tourism, finance and education. If this recession hits, expect a more violent downturn.
Kevin07 had a war chest full of surpluses. Morrison’s cupboards are bare.
Stop the boats.
Pay off the Labor Debt (don't worry that we've more than doubled it!)
Morrison, Abbott, and Turnbull all increased the debt anyway. It's their own fault. Pack of dipshits couldn't manage a cash tin at a sausage sizzle
According to my Excel model, it will go below 4000.
I use macros (recorded of course) and mine says it will bottom out at 4837
What kind of model do you use to come to that conclusion?
Yang–Mills existence and mass gap
well according to my Xero, it will go to Zero
Dead Cat just bounced past the window.
Is it a sign?
Just wait till Morrison slaps another levy on the big 4
For those who don’t have a crystal ball, try reading Marks.
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/howard-marks-memosI like this - good read. Logical.
I think the last paragraph sums up the best advice for the moment. If you have some money, you can buy some shares; but don't use it all up. The market can go either way, if it goes up - happy days, if it goes down you can buy some more. The person that will 'win' ultimately will the person with the most cash.
I'm glad we've exited the market completely last month and dumped it in the offset account. The panic is real.
Pretty much buying time than panicking.
Fact: Market going to get hit by this epidemic, it's more real than toilet paper.So People sell it before too late then buy again. Make more money.
And Elderly investors, who heavily invest on shares, want to get their money before too late, they don't have time.
If you not in either type, you losing money, ie keeping it on offset account, or leaving, unless you just get into market when bad happens, and there goes the cycle :)
I meant the panic of others is real. I didn't want to get caught in the stampede.
We also may need the cash soon. We wanted to be prepared when/if that happens. If we don't, we'll possibly re-invest in shares.
Elderly investors shouldn’t have a high exposure to the share market. In the GFC many ended up literally homeless because of their belief in continual upside. It does happen but you need to live long enough to benefit from it.
My shares nose dived because of Trumps tradewar and now they nose dived because of Coronavirus. What next, North Korea decides to launch?
you're asking the wrong people. it's a dropping knife atm so it can go anywhere. the whole market is acting like a penny stock.
learn to take a loss now or just keep it and hold for the long term. unless the company you're holding goes bankrupt, bluechip shares will inevitably rise. dyor and i am not a financial advisor or investment advisor.
Is this a good time for a first-time investor (i.e. to enter sharemarket and buy low)? If so, what to invest in?
Don't invest directly. Go to MLC or some other mob that knows what they are doing. You investing directly is just you betting on red or black at the casino.
no. as this isn't the low. you should probably go seek a managed fund rather than trying to do it yourself.
Look to LIC's (I like Wilson asset management) or other mobs who know what they are doing. I suspect there's a lot more pain to come yet.
You must really like them a lot of you shell out that much money for their management fees!
ITT: People who have no knowledge of markets discuss them. Observe.
Give us your thoughts
Zing!
My thoughts: If you comment in this thread with an accurate description of what will happen, you should 1) put actual money on the table and 2) ascend because you can predict the future better than any market maker
Already did, bought VTS @ $217 and VEU @ $69.33.
@mrvaluepack: Great - so you're different to all the people in the last two years that shorted the market right, you have some sort of different insight?
@Scantu: Long all the way! As i commented in my previous post, treasury yields are too low compared to pe and div yields. No brainer.
Banks and governments have also reacted quicker and accordingly compared to past financial impacting events.
@cloudy: Even if you are correct - you are one in a sea of others guessing incorrectly. Infinite monkey typewriter theorem.
Whale who only swims on table
Would love to see from any of the negs why their special knowledge is going to hold up… I'll wait
Even economists have no real insight into the market/s, it's all low latency computers doing the bulk of trades, company and economic information, psychology etc…. too many factors at play for any human to truly account for. Computers are much better at the mathematics behind all this, including AI trading.
Warren Buffett has made a bunch of bad judgement calls, his recent track record is lower than the indexes. Over his lifetime it has been good, but the bulk of his gains came several decades ago. Even he would say to just do as John Bogle had been explaining for the last 50 years.
All you need to know is: past performance is not a reliable indicator of future trends. Markets can remain irrational for much longer than they can be rational. Past performance does hold some weight if it's over several decades, but it's only ever so slightly useful. The dividends and interest payments re-invested over time help you accumulate wealth, along with natural market price growth over time. The compounding factor is huge.
John Bogle's advice is more relevant now than ever; invest for the long term in broad market cap indexes, make sure your provider has a low/reasonable MER, stay the course, and reduce your exposure to stocks as you reach retirement age.
Yeah…. that's exactly what I'm saying. The current market conditions are already priced in. Anyone predicting what will happen, especially in the moshpit here are 100% speculating.
@Scantu: Who cares? I predicted this mayhem more tha a month ago.
What I haven't figured out (yet) is when things will turn around.
@TEER3X: (I actually can't tell if you're being sarcastic)
Predictions are easy to make on binary movements. Either 50% chance you're right, or 50% chance you're wrong, noone notices, and you try again the next time. It's very easy to guess a 50/50, especially when the consequence of being wrong is nothing!
Gonna be a rough day again the DOW is down almost another 6%.
I've started moving money into trading accounts.
Long term outlook.This is not over. It isn't a financial but a viral problem.
Unless governments ban air travel then non essential travel to stamp it out once and for all it is just going to keep getting passed around.
But it is now a financial problem.
Only a matter of time before the run on banks and credit unions starts.
Only a matter of time before the run on banks and credit unions starts.
There is $250k guarantee. Coronavirus can live on plastic surfaces for up to 3 days. Therefore better to use contact less / pay wave.
@netjock: Will reply later . Only a 20 billion guarantee because it was changed in 2012.
Will rely on assets held by banks. like housing loans
When the market adjusts (housing) down 25%. goodnight to bank savers.
@netjock: The devil is in the detail.
So many ppl think they are covered to $250000.
The majors have anywhere between 300 billion to 700 billion in deposits
.
If they fail the Govt chip in the first 20 billion only.
The shortfall is to be covered by the Depositor Guarantee which the ADI is expected to have sufficient asserts to cover
Given the "assets" include housing and business loans, any shift down in asset values will result in the Deposit Guarantee being shredded.Don't let anything think they are covered up to $250000 per institution.
As a side note anybody who does not use trailing stop losses really shouldn't be in the stock market.@netjock: Deasd set hope to be shown to be wrong.
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2011/dec/5.html
@IanC: Abstract
Depositors in authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs) in Australia benefit from a number of layers of protection designed to ensure that their funds are safe. At the broadest level, Australia has a strong system of prudential regulation and supervision which, together with sound management at individual institutions, has meant that problems in ADIs have been rare. In addition, depositors benefit from strong protections in the unlikely event that an ADI fails. They have a priority claim on the assets of a failed ADI ahead of other unsecured creditors, known as ‘depositor preference’. Depositor protection arrangements were further strengthened in 2008 with the introduction of the Financial Claims Scheme (FCS), under which the Australian Government guarantees the timely repayment of deposits up to a predefined cap. This cap was temporarily set at $1 million per person per ADI when the FCS was introduced and is scheduled to be set on a permanent basis at $250,000 per person per ADI from 1 February 2012.@IanC: Payouts of deposits covered under the FCS are initially financed by the Government through a standing appropriation of $20 billion per failed ADI (although it is possible that additional funds could be made available, if needed, subject to parliamentary approval).(rba.gov.au)
the maximum that can be appropriated is $20 billion(legislation.gov.au)
the government's $20 billion provision per ADI would not be sufficient to honour its deposit guarantee in the event of a failure of any of the Big Four banks(aph.gov.au) and after that depositors are granted a priority claim on the assets of a failed ADI ahead of other unsecured creditors (once the Government has been reimbursed for any payouts and expenses arising from the FCS(aph.gov.au)
This is a very long and complicated piece of legislation but at its very core it brings Australia into line with the ‘Bail In’ agenda of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) as agreed at the G20 here in Brisbane in 2014. ‘Bail In’ is about government not bailing out distressed institutions as we saw in the GFC using tax payer’s money, rather using the creditors of the bank to bail itself out.(ainsliebullion.com.au)
at the end of the 2019 financial year the major banks reported customer deposits between $300 billion and $600 billion each(privatevaults.com.au)
@IanC: https://citizensparty.org.au/media-releases/apra-update-thin…
A former principal researcher at bank regulator APRA has revealed in a submission to a Senate inquiry that, contrary to government reassurances, Australian bank deposits are not guaranteed.
As a Principal Researcher at APRA in 2004-10, during which time he was briefly acting Head of Research for a time, Dr Sy is one of the most qualified people to comment on APRA and the powers it will be given by this bill. Both the 2008 global financial crisis and introduction of the Financial Claims Scheme occurred while he was at APRA.
The essential point that Dr Sy makes is that the FCS is not an absolute guarantee. He quotes the FCS website, which makes clear that the FCS will only take effect if the government activates it when an ADI (Authorised Deposit-taking Institution—a bank, credit union, building society etc.) fails. “That is, when a bank fails, i.e. becomes insolvent, the Australian Government or APRA then has the discretion to decide whether or not to activate the FCS”, he says. “Hence, it should be emphasised that:
“Bank deposits are not protected or guaranteed at all.”Under the Banking Act 1959, Dr Sy explains, APRA is responsible for two potentially conflicting objectives: the protection of depositors AND the promotion of financial stability. This depositor protection is “illusory”, he asserts, because the Banking Act doesn’t state which objective has priority.
Under the new bill, however, APRA will have the discretionary power to decide which objective has priority; alarmingly, it will be able to make such a decision “in secrecy”. Dr Sy references Subdivision D, Section 11CH (p.24) of the bill, which states that APRA may decide that its orders must be kept secret if it is “necessary to protect the depositors of any ADI OR to promote financial system stability”. (Emphasis added by Sy.) The replacement of “AND” with “OR” confirms that the objectives are in potential conflict. “Therefore”, Dr Sy continued, “it is important to recognise that the Bill allows APRA discretionary powers to decide secretly whether to protect depositors or to promote financial system stability.”
More at the link.
Wait for 12 months to buy shares unless you buy BEAR which go up as the market drops. Check it out on the ASX.
Bought BEAR ages back and been losing money on it ever since. Until the last few weeks, that is.
Guys whats the best trading platform to use here in Australia? Saxo Capital markets?
their fees seem to be quite high. Not sure about buying shares long term through themSelfwealth
Yes Selfweath is good, $9.50 per trade and you can easily find a code to get 5 free trades.
Go for nabtrade. They have free trade for next three months upto commission value of $1000 bucks.
Edit- Neg accepted. Just realised they have removed that option now. Was active until few days back with offer open until April I guess. So. No option for NabTrade now.
Nab trade is terrible, it's the worst platform. Unfortunately I have funds tied up with NAB and nab trade :(
Yup. True. Not allowing to place any trade. These are big4 where their infra can’t scale. Lol.
Nabtrade was developed by drunk gypsies, it’s ******* terrible
You were downvoted but you shared the random code generator… Alas my upvote didn't bring you to zero.
Interactive Brokers is where you go if you are a trader
CMC/Saxo are low cost
5356 now, probably will go under 5000 by tomorrow
Yep, another 7% today, not sure what to hold out for now, 5000 has come too soon.
Wrong place to post. oopps.
there is a panic on the global markets. I thought Aust government would have already released the stimulus measures but they are waiting?
this will give ASX bounce back
Don't worry, negative interest rates will save us :-P
LOL
We need Wayne Swann now. The Messiah.
Cut interest rates, print money blah blah blah.
Just get the big fella in charge and we will all be laughing
Swanny for pm.
Crikey…sky is falling.
I want it to come crashing down. Well below 5000. Good opportunity to get it when it bottoms out for an early retirement.
If you could go back in time three weeks, you could've invested in BetaShares Australian Equities Strong Bear Hedge Fund
Any dividend on this?:)
I don’t think it’s too late to get in this fund. Pain is going to be around for the next month easy. Then when companies start releasing bad quarterly or half yearlies or revise guidance the market will still be bearish.
Hi guys, for someone who have no idea about the share market, where do i need to start to buy some of these share as it looks like prices are falling hard? Who do i need to approach to get help?
This is the time to get your investment accounts ready. Sign up for Commsec/Nabtrade/Selfwealth or whatever.
Put some money in your preferred trading platform.
Do some research into what to buy, your preferred way of determining what's a good value buy.
Who made a quick buck?