A big drop in today's share market, how low can it go?
Lowest so far: 4546 on 23 Mar 2020.
How Low Can ASX 200 Go?
chansc on 09/03/2020 - 11:09
Last edited 01/04/2020 - 11:36 by 1 other user
Last edited 01/04/2020 - 11:36 by 1 other user
Poll Options
- 55888 (today's lowest point so far)
- 85601 to 5888
- 215401 to 5600
- 65201 to 5400
- 145000 to 5200
- 3594801 to 5000
- 64601 to 4800
- 134401 to 4600
- 74201 to 4400
- 94001 to 4200
- 111Below 4000
- 5Below 3000
- 13Below 2000
Related Stores
Comments
I'm selling all my shares because everyone else is selling. Then, in a few year's time when life is normal again, I can buy back the shares that I sold, paying 30% more in the process. Great idea. /s
crystallizing the losses
Buy high, sell low, it's the only way.
Fellow crypto trader I see.
How are your lambos going?
@brendanm: Great! (When I can find them in my kids sandpit, sometime it's just a cat turd, but much the same these days)
Shame the ASX bargain was taken down before I got to see it 🤣
Google trends is best predictor of market herding
You can buy again once 'corona virus' has peakedPicks 99/100 bubbles
I think you will find that zero is the theoretical limit.
Gees WBC looks really cheap at the moment, with tonights DJ down another 1800+ points WBC might even drop to $16 today…………
https://www.google.com/search?q=dow+joens&rlz=1C1CHBF_en-GBA…
Wonder if DJ will go up by finish cause if it doesn't, then its another bloodbath tomorrow at the ASX
bloodbath time…..WBC should probably hit 50% discount today from its peak. Does look like a good buy at the moment
WBC are very vulnerable
Still facing at least 2bill fine because of total managerial ineptitude.
Good Buy?
It may be goodbye Westpac.
Seriously people have no idea of the financial ramifications of this eventAMP would go under before WBC.
The government won't have it. 25% drop in property lending in this country (plus the portfolio having to be run off), would crater the real estate industry. We might as well all pack up and live in PNG, they would have a better level of living than us.
Crikey, the DOW is down 9% last night, Italy 16%, most of Europe around 12% and even Russia dropped 11%, things is getting serious. :)
Thing is getting serious=It is yet to start to get serious.
Didn’t know if you want to know where the ASX is going ask here !
90% in survey said below 5 k and is there now .Closed at 5304 yesterday, not quite there yet, give it an hour or so. :)
Been watching CFD's at 4870 now lower than 4900 when made that comment .
My prediction came true!
I gave it an hour or so, now it's at 4896. :)
Can you do another poll with more options below 5000?
Curious to see where people think this will goIt will bottom out when the US capitulates. Meaning they are epicentre of coronavirus. People think this is a credit problem. Actually it is a viral problem that won't be solved unless everyone is cured or everyone gets it (assume immunity afterwards).
(wrong assumption)
Please explain Pauline?
in general, reinfection seems highly unlikely: Most infectious diseases trigger a permanent immune response during recovery, Rivers says. If anyone were to get COVID-19 a second time, it’d be immunocompromised individuals—though, she says, that’d still be quite rare.
@netjock: surely we can go on and post links forever, but we just don't know:
A protective antibody is generated in those who are infected. "However, in certain individuals, the antibody cannot last that long. For many patients who have been cured, there is a likelihood of relapse," said Li QinGyuan, director of pneumonia prevention and treatment at China Japan Friendship Hospital in Beijing.Poland agreed, saying the chance of reinfection is "very likely."
However, Eng Eong Ooi, a professor of emerging infectious diseases at Singapore's Duke-NUS Medical School, said the data is too new to determine definitively whether the immunity will last for a very short period of time, for years or for life.
@Hasbulla: You've got immunity to this strain but you won't have if it mutates that is why the seasonal flu comes around every year.
Covered in Netflix documentary Pandemic.
I did day trading in the past and went through the last GFC day trading and also played options too.
In this panic market and extreme volatility… BIGGEST WINNER = SHORT SELLERS.
Should we change from 5000 to 4000 and start a new thread? 🤔
Probably start a new one and list 4000 to 0.
I tried to start a new thread but it got removed by the mod…
https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/524110
Please do not create new forum topics of the same topics. I have added the poll options to this post, and allow people to change their votes.
I'm in for below 4000 in next 4-7 weeks.
This virus is huge its going to wreak the world economy for months, 50% down at a minimum
Countries have wrecked themselves by isolationist policies but now their dependencies are reducing those policies to trash political dogma.
All that will happen is even more fascist controls than those that ushered in this new virus.
America wanted things this way, and everyone thought that it was fine, so enjoy the ride.
Serious Question:
Looking at a lot of Vangaurd index funds, prices are as low as they’ve ever been / marginally higher. So take VAS for example, $64. The last time it was that price was 2016, before that 2013. I would assume most people selling theirs at the moment would have purchased for at least that price, if not more. What is the rationale behind selling at a loss? Is anyone here selling their shares at a loss and willing to give an insight?? I just don’t get itSelling at loss in a hope that market would crash further and they will get another chance to jump in at lower price.
I contributed that. About 2 weeks ago I decided to cash out all including my super(which were mainly Vanguard funds).
My logic is simple:
- world factory, China heavily damaged before the event and COVID-19 finalised it.
- world leader, Mr. Trump cut 0.5 interest to save the world. But it didn't work.
- almost all governments of the world didn't prepare to protect people against COVID-19 and only talked about money. Extremely irrational to me.
- something's very wrong, time to cash out.just for a start … margin calls
trouble with index etf's ( which ppl now finding out) is that if passive the good gets dumped with the bad
ETF shares don't operate like other shares. They do not rise or fall significantly based on supply/demand, they are tokens of a parcel of other assets and their price is adjusted to reflect the value of those assets.
Serious Answer:
I need to collect capital losses for this financial year. Figuring they were at their peak I sold some shares (not enough) before mid-Feb and am now actively selling my BEAR and USD investments. This means I have a tonne of capital gains.
If I don't start selling some shares and collecting the capital loss I'll pay a lot of tax this year.
If I sell those loser shares and buy them back the next day my long-term position has only marginally changed but I've saved a lot on tax.
Now here's the really scary part: I'm just going to put it out there that there are a set of tax policies causing people to do bizarre things with housing.
Becareful, this is call a wash sale and is illegal:
https://www.morningstar.com.au/stocks/article/avoid-this-exp…
Cheers. Good article.
There goes our super funds…..
Mum reckons 11!
Send her straight to the pool room
cba GREEN. ..a Lazarus effort
Any idea what to do with our Super? Probably should take it off high risk already.
I changed mine to all cash a couple weeks ago.
Thanks, I changed mine to cash now
No worries, just have to remember to change it back when things settle down :)
Nice you’ve just locked in any losses
@RocketSwitch: @kev98 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disposition_effect
@RocketSwitch Yes you've "locked in any losses", but also stemmed any further losses. If the market continues to go down, that's a good thing. However, if it all turns around and shoots back up tomorrow, then that's a bad thing. That's the gamble you're making now. IMO the market isn't done going down, but I guess we'll see.
Normally I don't agree with trying to "time the market" like this, but it's a pretty special circumstance. Govt has had to announce a major stimulus package, major events are being cancelled, flight paths reduced, tourism and education sectors are hard hit, flight center closing 100 shopfronts, etc…
Who knows how much lower it will go. Keep an eye on finance news, when you start hearing more positive news about the economy in the coming weeks (or probably months), look at moving back into growth or whatever investment product you prefer. Key thing here is to remember to get back in! Otherwise those losses really are locked in!
If you don't want to remember to get back in, it is a valid strategy to just keep your investments as is, and they'll pick back up eventually once the markets fully recover.
see: https://www.ozbargain.com.au/node/523262?page=3#comment-8440…@seabombs: Thank you for that explanation. I do not feel so bad now. I thought I lost my Super, but it's the loss on my investment returns.
Looking at it now, it might not have been a bad decision to change if the market continues to fall.
@RocketSwitch: I did similar things, changed to 'bonds' effective from 4 march and back to high growth effective today morning. This saved my super from a 12% drop!
I'm going to leave it in high-risk category from now. The investment strategy in my super has already been down more than 20% so may be time for a turn around, who knows?
@polol: Thanks for that link, really insightful. Ultimately, just leave the damn thing alone. I'll buy back in if it hits rock bottom. If not, buy back in and take the loses of the return for the year. I did change to cash at the end of the day, when the ASX recovered, so not too bad.
@RocketSwitch: Are changes immediate with your super funds?
For my case I need to change before 2 pm on a working day so that they take effect from the morning 2 business days later, i.e. change before 2 pm Wed and it will take effect Friday morning
@[Deactivated]: I just checked, if mine is done before 4pm on a business day (which I did on Friday) it will take effect on the next business day.
So, lucky it finished strongly as I had no idea what I was doing. phew
pump more in if you can.
It's a guessing game at the moment! One thing for sure, I wouldn't go within a 40 foot pole of the markets at the moment until this virus calms down and we start to hear some positive news. Those holding have nothing to worry about, 3 years time you'll look at your portfolio and you'll be laughing! Those who have sold, I'd either use a Dollar Cost Average strategy or hold off until markets begin to turn. Keep those dividends compounding and reinvesting at lower prices and you'll do well!
As for property prices, there's so many comments about property values increasing in price. Although the cut to interest rates gives buyers more borrowing power, I honestly cannot see the housing market increasing for the life of me. People are spending less and saving more, small businesses are suffering, people are being laid off and i'm sure if this virus continues to spread, employment rates will continue to fall.
Tough times ahead in the short-term for the economy, but i'm embracing the downturn and see it as a great opportunity to capitalize on oversold and undervalued companies.
I honestly cannot see the housing market increasing for the life of me
You will be surprised at how people can keep borrowing more principle and expecting a big tax deduction.
It is always a cash flow and solvency game. People might lose their jobs or make less due to recession then that is one plank gone. Then it depends on their savings and whether they can remain solvent enough to find another job that will pay all their liabilities.
I think the government is giving to businesses and people on benefits because business owners who have the capital can prey on the middle class who didn't get a hand out and now stuck in the middle.
Longer this goes on the more dangerous it gets.
You won't make decent returns if you don't take any Risk. By the time it's common knowledge that the virus is under control, the market would have well and truly bolted..
Up 4.4%. Just short covering so don't get too excited folks!
Yep, and a further FYI…
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/03/12/frazzled-fed-rolls-out-fas…
As Everything Bubble Implodes, Frazzled Fed Rolls Out Fastest Mega-Money Printer Ever, up to $4.5 Trillion in Four Weeks
by Wolf Richter • Mar 12, 2020 • 6 Comments
The Fed is going nuts trying to contain this.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
Thursday early afternoon, during the chaos when the S&P 500 was down nearly 9%, what would turn into the worst single-day stock market sell-off since the 1987 crash, the Fed rolled out its fastest mega money-printer yet, after its smaller money-printers malfunctioned. It’s not going to be a long-drawn-out QE – though there is a component that is just that – but it’s going to be trillions of dollars, essentially all at once, front-loaded, starting today, though today fizzled already.This is the Fed’s latest effort to bail out Wall Street, the cherished asset holders that are so essential to the Fed’s “wealth effect,” all repo market participants, the banks, and the Treasury market that suddenly has gone haywire. Lots of things have gone haywire as the Everything Bubble unwinds messily.
Last week, the 10-year Treasury yield had plunged toward zero during the stock market sell-off, which was crazy but in line with the logic that investors were all piling into safe assets, and early Monday morning it fell to an unthinkable all-time low of 0.38%.
But then, the 10-year yield more than doubled from 0.38% at the low on Monday to 0.88% at the highpoint on Thursday. That the 10-year yield spikes during a stock market crash is somewhat of a scary thought. It means that both stocks and long-dated Treasury securities are selling off at the same time. And that probably made the Fed very nervous.
For stocks, Thursday was the 16th trading day since the S&P 500 peak, and in those 15 trading days, the index has crashed nearly 27%.
The smaller money-printers fizzle.
Late last week, demand for repos had increased. And earlier this week, as markets came further unglued, the Fed shoveled more cash into the repo market.Monday morning, the Fed raised the maximum of the overnight repo from $100 billion to $150 billion.
Tuesday morning, it raised the maximum for the twice-weekly 14-day term repo from $20 billion to $45 billion.
Wednesday, it sat on its hands and watched its handiwork, which was a continued crash
These increases are reflected on the Fed’s weekly balance sheet released today. Repos soared from $143 billion two weeks ago to $242 billion, nearly back where they’d been on January 1 ($256 billion). Note how the repo balances had been declining from the beginning of the year, dropping by 44%, until the stock market began to crash and the Fed opened the vault:And it didn’t work. So Thursday morning, the Fed threw more cash at the market:
It again raised the maximum of the overnight repo, this time from $150 billion to $175 billion.
It added a $50 billion 25-day repo to the mix.
And stocks just continued to crash.So the Fed rolled out its fastest mega-money-printer ever.
Thursday early afternoon, the Fed announced in a surprise shock-and-awe move that it will use the repo market in a big way to try to prop up and inflate whatever needs propping up and inflating. It will offer a series of $500-billion term repos at least through April 13, amounting to $4.0 trillion in new money over the four-week period.On Thursday at 1:30 p.m., it offered $500 billion in three-month repos, to settle on Friday. But it fizzled: Of this offered amount, only $78.4 billion were accepted, perhaps because market participants weren’t able to come up with that much collateral that quickly or because they didn’t want that much cash.
This surprise announcement of $500-billion offer caused the S&P 500 index to spike 6% in 15 minutes. But when it emerged that only $78.4 billion had been taken, it succumbed again.
On Friday, the Fed will offer $1 trillion in repos: $500 billion in three-month repos and $500 billion in one-month repos. That’s a heck of a lot of bucks to print in just one day. But no problem for the new mega-money printer. It anyone wants this much, it can print it.
Next week (the week of March 16), the Fed will offer another $1 trillion: next Monday, $500 billion in one-month repos; and next Friday, $500 billion in three-month repos.
This will continue in each week, the same procedure of $1 trillion a week plus all the other repos, through Monday, April 13.
If all these $500-billion repos starting Friday are accepted during the period, minus this Friday’s one-month $500-billion repo that will unwind on April 13, they would amount to $4.0 trillion.
These repos would come on top of the other repos and on top of the $60 billion a month in purchases of Treasury securities, that the Fed said it will broaden to include Treasury securities of all types and maturities, not just T-Bills.
In total, this would amount to nearly $4.5 trillion through April 13 that the Fed is offering to create to bail out Wall Street, repo market participants, the asset holders, the banks, and Corporate America. It would more than double the already re-ballooned balance sheet (currently $4.3 trillion). It could push the balance sheet to nearly $9 trillion by April 13.
This is apparently the price of trying to maintain the insane Everything Bubble that the Fed has created since 2009.
More at the link.
And yet, here we at OzBargain are counting in cents.
This is not a bail out in any way. They're just providing short term liquidity by trading cash for bonds. The Fed will likely make a profit out of this.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/federal-re…
3200
Disclosure: own puts.After Friday improvement and Fed stimulus, do people still think it will go down to 4801 to 5000?
The dead cat will probably bounce up on Monday, but no telling what's in store later in the week. There will be more bad news. Virus itself is yet to peak, but will happen soon enough. Once it does, people will quickly start buying back in. Then, after that, there will be some bad dips due to some of the economic fall out.
I lost 7k from superannuation due to ASX drop.
pump more in if you are in the position. I partially work on ABN so I have room to pump before I hit 25K limit. Mine is down by 13K btw but not going to change the strategy. This is not financial advice, DYR.
Unless you've sold, you've lost nothing.
Just like if your assests soar, unless you've sold you've lsot nothing.
I bought several VTS ETF's last week, thinking the price drop was good, its dropped even further now so im thinking of buying more tomorrow. I know it doesnt pay out in regular dividends however long term growth is what i am after here, i plan to hold until retirement. I understand ill have to fill out a w-8ben form every now and then so i dont pay a 30% tax from the irs however thats not so bad. I might change to IVV in the future to avoid having to do this, who knows. All i know is that historically, markets recover, humanity recovers and life goes on, its not all doom and gloom, well, long term anyway :)
My understanding was they do pay dividends, I am invested in VDHG and the yield is like 4%.
Goodluck with current forecasts and yields which obviously will change significantly with potential county shutdowns like Italy begin to happen on a larger scale . No analysis can figure out this environment accurately .
That one I would target from current $47.74 to get to $36 . Watch the space .
mind to enlighten me, when and who required to fill out w-8ben?
what's the difference between buying local vs US shares ? document/tax wise
For those of you who aren't traders, this should give you an idea of support levels and overall picture of the market.
What charting program are you using?
trading view.
There are no support levels other RBA intervention lol
Is it too late to switch my super to cash?
I think so, not sure. Is it instant?
takes 2 business days
dow futures down 2.5% on one site.. 20%on another. now -21023
Now -1023 around 4.5%
Damn just closed 2 points above 5000. Aah well tomorrow its going to close below 5000 for sure
Not to worry the RBA is firing up the printing presses! It worked so well for the yanks over the last 12 years…what could go right?
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-qe-quantitative…
After many months of speculation, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has indicated it will implement quantitative easing (QE) in Australia for the first time in the country’s history.
“As Australia’s financial system adjusts to the coronavirus (COVID-19), financial regulators and the Australian Government are working closely together to help ensure that Australia’s financial markets continue to operate effectively and that credit is available to households and businesses,” RBA Governor Phillip Lowe said in a statement on Monday.
“In response, the Reserve Bank stands ready to purchase Australian government bonds in the secondary market to support the smooth functioning of that market, which is a key pricing benchmark for the Australian financial system.”
In other words, the RBA will expand Australia’s money supply by buying up those bonds – essentially ‘printing money’ in an effort to stimulate the economy. The central bank said it would also engage in “repo operations” where it will on-sell those bonds to investors before buying them back for a slightly inflated price.
It’s an unprecedented step and one the RBA has repeatedly indicated it was prepared to unleash, even if it would rather avoid it.
For one, QE can push up asset prices, with the real risk in Australia being such a program could inflate a massive housing bubble. However, as the coronavirus outbreak threatens to cannonball global economic growth, it appears Australia’s central bank has little choice.
Its American counterpart, the US Federal Reserve, indicated overnight it would expand its own QE program to the tune of $1.13 trillion, and swiftly moved to cut US interest rates by 1%.
Closer to home, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) also cut interest rates overnight, doing so by 0.75% in its own stimulus attempts.
Now the RBA is doing what little it can to try and move the dial for “as long as market conditions warrant”.
It’s expected to announce further measures on Thursday.
Some may find this interesting
In a recent survey 22% of ASustralisans had less than $500 in savings and 50% less than $3000
UK and DAX only down 6-8 %
Reckon the Dow could easily lose 2000 plus tonight
Now down 2728 after 15 min
suspensionDown 12%
Another messy day ahead. Can the AUD reach 50c?
Pretty sure most ozbargainers are savers, bargain is my middle name
How many people here are first-time investors trying to "time" the bottoming out of the ASX? If last night's DOW is anything to go by, it looks like it will be more red to be expected
So how come stocks on the ASX aren't decreasing today (17 March, Tuesday)?
Short covering, bargain hunting perhaps.
It also closed higher on Friday 13th March and yet here we are.
The bearish market will likely continue, given the COVID-19 situation seems to be escalating (at least in the West). I mean, people are already working from homes for the foreseeable future and I still haven't seen toilet paper on the shelves for a good two weeks now… These aren't exactly normal circumstances
if you dont know anything about the stock market (or equity market in general), stick with index fund. If you want something with high risk high reward, stick with the casino.
the stock market is not a safe place for amateur.
If you want professional help, pay for a financial advisor.