FOMO When It Comes to Buying Houses at The Moment?

iNeed2Pee on 20/02/2021 - 15:51
Last edited 20/02/2021 - 15:51

Saw a couple of houses today.

Looking at buying our first home and have been looking for about 4-6 months in the South Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. (Covid has impacted our house searching somewhat- I am back to casual but still earning good money)

In the last 3 or 4 weeks in particular, houses that we have seen at say 10am inspection times have had offers on them the same night!!!

What the hell is going on? Do people have a fear of missing out at the moment….

Yes, we really want to buy a house but some of these properties have legit been unbelievably bad and in need of heaps of work.

I am not trying to be picky but an example I will give you.

"Another buyer walked in the same time looking at a property. In there for the same amount of time as myself, didn't check anything just eyed it down, we both happened to walk out the same time and he said to the agent he was really keen and wanted to put an offer in asap".

I was perplexed. Each to their own I get but wtf is happening!!!

I am very easily losing motivation at the moment.

Home & Garden

Comments

    • Donaldhump on 21/02/2021 - 01:15
      +3

      I’d imagine half the realestate agents go at this time as well

  • tim_geo on 21/02/2021 - 03:02
    +3

    I actually think COVID has pushed some markets down (Apartments, CBD) and other markets up (especially rural and coastal - since you can WFH, why not!). Pent up demand, cheaper credit, and lack of stock (reluctant sellers) all doing its thing. You would think if prices do go up, which other cities have, more sellers would get interested.

    So prices should just continue to go up barring some major correction, end of job keeper might be a factor. However waiting has its risks when things trend up, I think best to continue look for what you want and be prepared to offer more especially if you're picky (but keep in mind agents can play games, so don't get talked into more than you're willing, but don't walk away only to regret later). One would think that the government is smart enough to not to cause a house price crash due to a policy that they can control / extend.

  • Navanod66 on 21/02/2021 - 09:55
    +1

    Perth here. Some houses are getting offers and sold without being inspected. "Sight unseen" the happy RE agents called it.

    The attitude of the RE had completely changed 180 degrees from last year, where they would practically beg you to come back for a 2nd inspection if you looked even slightly interested but wanted to go home and do your research first.

  • farknos on 21/02/2021 - 10:20
    +4

    in Perth we take 500+ Australians back from overseas every week, most of these people have money, don't have a car and don't have a house. I think this has pushed house sale prices, rental prices and 2nd hand car prices up.
    I believe Australia takes 4000+ Australians back each week from overseas, just my theory.

    • iNeed2Pee on 21/02/2021 - 12:09
      +1

      Not a bad theory. Anything is possible at the moment!

    • Drakesy on 22/02/2021 - 00:19

      Luckily the supply though has kept up with demand, with the number of investment grade houses within 15 minutes of perth definitely coming back within the last 2 months

    • netjock on 22/02/2021 - 10:48

      Come back with suit cases of cash or collect your bags with a complementary loan?

      How can you get a loan without a job? Not all of them went overseas without houses and came back.

      People are just fooling themselves. Soon we'll be out bidding ourselves out of food on the table. At lease you can luck of the flakes of paint off the wall to supplement your diet.

    • mr_asstight on 22/02/2021 - 14:16

      The same also happens other way. Lots of people from overseas moving back. I would say it's net neutral.

    • Some Guy on 24/02/2021 - 13:52

      Alan Kohler said precisely this on the ABC news about three weeks ago.

  • [Deactivated] on 21/02/2021 - 13:36

    Loan interest is at its lowest ever. In the history.

    Various stimulus money has made a lot of people (unless you are in the affected industries) much better off than before.

    The BIG question is: what will happen in the next 5 or 10 years?

    But if you are buying to live in, this should not be your main consideration.

    • TheCutter on 21/02/2021 - 16:30
      +3

      When China stops buying the iron ore the party is over. And thats not a bad thing. With African supply, recycling and the drop off in their building projects thats 3 or 4 years away.

      • Drakesy on 22/02/2021 - 00:20
        +3

        Bingo
        A nation with low interest rates is not a nation with a strong economy

        • Trying2SaveABuck on 22/02/2021 - 00:49
          +1

          I hate to say it but Drakesy right take out mining and our economy is dead

    • netjock on 22/02/2021 - 10:50

      If you are living to buy in you still need to either make more money in 4 - 5 years or afford the interest.

  • roundnumbersonly on 21/02/2021 - 14:49
    +2

    Lately I've seen some houses that were only sold 12-18mths ago, back on the market and they're asking for $100-200k more than what they paid for it, without any improvements made to the property. All I can do is shake my head at humanity.

    • iNeed2Pee on 21/02/2021 - 14:50
      +4

      I've also seen that. Its a (profanity) joke tbh.

    • moneyhungry on 21/02/2021 - 20:26
      +8

      Once you factor in stamp duty, council fees when purchasing then advertising and agent fees when selling they merely break even.

      • webtonmoy on 21/02/2021 - 20:37
        +1

        With about 5-6% stamp duty and 2% agent fee, along with about 3% bank interest (may be covered by rent, if any), they are in deed barely breaking even for 10% price increase.

    • Ghost47 on 21/02/2021 - 23:33
      +2

      Lol wtf. People just want money without really doing anything, and it's disgusting.

      • netjock on 22/02/2021 - 10:52
        +2

        Property rent seekers. Legitimatised JobSeeker

    • MrMoo on 22/02/2021 - 11:47
      +3

      I don't know what price you are looking at. But unless you are looking at $500k apartments or something, once you factor in stamp duty, agent fee and capital gains tax (if they didn't live in it) they are barely making any money at all. It's merely a change of mind or upsizing sale.

      Judging by the OP's comment. There seem to be some people who are uneducated in the actual profit you make from property sales.

      • netjock on 22/02/2021 - 17:55
        +1

        You know property people. Bet they go to dinner parties telling people how they made 100k because the net number is not so pretty.

  • mohan76 on 21/02/2021 - 15:09
    +2
    1. low Interest Rate for loan and deposit (deposit almost does not give any return.)
    2. Low Deposit requirement

    3. Govt policy promote bubble .
      a. grants
      b. negative gearing

    4. past property performance . yearly +5 ~ 10 % ?

    5. no other secure investment available for general public
    6. tried of waiting for bubble to bust / FOMO
    • iNeed2Pee on 21/02/2021 - 15:21

      I have a good deposit. Does that even matter anymore?

      • mohan76 on 21/02/2021 - 16:24

        it's always mater , if RBA make max lvr to 60% we coud see some stabilization /correction in 2 years time .

        my golden standard : min 40% deposit .

      • onesandtwos on 22/02/2021 - 23:36

        Not really, not anymore… Main thing banks are concerned about is the servicing of the mortgage, so it's all about cash flow, and if less than 20%, the LMI is factored in, but that's it. Having a bigger deposit doesn't seem to change the amount the banks allow you to borrow. It's another reason why the difference between the haves and the have-nots widen; positively geared investors just easily refinance, and take advantage of cheap money.

  • DiscoJango on 21/02/2021 - 16:24

    Its sort of fomo, but its also that people were holding out until the new year, as the market was supposed to 'crash' in that, unemployment would be high, job keeper payments would run out, investors would be looking to sell their properties asap for a loss etc etc doom and gloom

    The reality has been the exact oppisate, the economy is doing pretty good, unemployment isnt that bad and people are spending money.

    First home owners can be $10,000, home builders grant can be $15,000 - $25,000 and if you tick the boxes, you can get a complete stamp duty exemption. These 3 alone can be worth savings of $40,000.

    The above is my exact story, as ive ready to buy a property since last year, but was hoping prices would be really good now. They are, but they are also starting to go up really quick, auctions selling before the day via private offer for insane amounts etc

    As they say, the early bird gets the worm.

    • netjock on 22/02/2021 - 11:22
      +5

      Economy doing well. Try telling that to tourism and retail.

      Unemployment is good. Just under employment is bad. Underemployment is endemic, they just haven't been reporting it like unemployment.

  • bigbadboogieman on 21/02/2021 - 18:05
    +4

    One thing I have learnt in AU property market is that either it's a FOMO hot sellers market or there is no stock in the market (people just hold out if market is slow). Either way it's tough competition.

    • beyondtool on 24/02/2021 - 23:57

      The Gold Coast property market has both going on at the moment. Severe shortage of stock and highly motivated buyers. Most houses are under contract within first few days of listing, if they even get that far. Sydney and Melbourne buyers are purchasing sight unseen. Our real estate agent said they never seen anything remotely like it (take with grain of salt). People bid 100k over the asking price on a townhouse my mum looked at recently (listed at 400k).

      It has to crash, there’s only so much speculative investing, and first home buyers that can be squeezed before the government grants run out and rates rise. Like people are saying factor in a 5% rate coming in, and if you can’t afford that grab some popcorn and wait on the sidelines. The really tragic thing is the baby boomers will survive with their portfolios losing some of their unearned gains over the decades, but recent young home buyers will lose everything if they over committed.

      • bigbadboogieman on 25/02/2021 - 13:36

        Well we are one of the not so recent buyers… We got in around Q1 2020 when the market had already picked up… This was just before Covid-19 was a thing. By the time we settled, there was a full lock-down as I remember moving house was one of the valid reasons for leaving home in the lock-down.

        We ended up paying 25K more than the property was worth at the time. We were definitely desperate because we were looking for more than 6 months, lost a 0.5% deposit once and were completely being beaten out by other buyers snapping up properties even before we could even get to an inspection. There was limited stock in the market at the time. To be honest the market has been like this since more than a year now in Sydney metropolitan area. There was initially some downturn due to Covid-19 and sellers basically pulled the stock off the market but the market caught up fairly quickly.

        Also to be fair, AU and NZ has been very successful in controlling Covid-19 in a global pandemic compared to the rest of the developed world. When I speak to friends and family in US, UK, Canada, etc. they are envious of our situation here. Who wouldn't want to buy a home and live in a country like this. Therefore I don't think the property market is crashing anytime soon. It will drop a little and stabilise during the winter though but I can't see a crash.

        Pandemic has highlighted the fact that necessities like housing are very important especially in a working from home situation and having a home in a country like AU is a blessing.

      • SgtBatten on 25/02/2021 - 16:24
        +1

        There was a house in New lambton, Newcastle that was advertised for 800k, then 930k, then opening bid was 1.2m and it sold for 1.61m 2 weeks ago.

  • godofpizza on 21/02/2021 - 19:31
    +1

    I was a little shocked as well.
    I started shopping for a larger home in our area and there was a line of 50+ people up for the inspection at one particular home.
    The house ended up selling 50K about the price range advertised.

    I remember the days where real state agents use to drive you to houses when looking for a new house or even be able to sit down an negotiate a price offer. It seems like the FOMO has got people literally throwing money/offers at agents.

    • iNeed2Pee on 21/02/2021 - 19:49

      Wow, I remember those days as well when the agents drove us around to houses.

      • netjock on 22/02/2021 - 17:56
        +1

        Days of buyers driving real estate agents to see houses is near.

        • beyondtool on 25/02/2021 - 00:00

          Yep, you need to have a cozy relationship with an agent that can offer you houses not on market.

    • Donaldhump on 23/02/2021 - 17:29

      yeh my first one was having a durry while driving, showed me 8 places, and said which one you want.

  • Aerith-Waifu on 21/02/2021 - 19:47

    Move to Perth, plenty of property at your pick at half the prices. (Wont be for long though)

  • iNeed2Pee on 21/02/2021 - 20:24
    +1

    Look at this tactic. Nice heading!

    1 Ailsa Street, Dandenong North, Vic 3175 https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-dandenong+n…

    • godofpizza on 21/02/2021 - 20:43
      +4

      it should be renamed never renovated in almost 40 years

      • beyondtool on 25/02/2021 - 00:02

        The more dilapidated the better. Too many covidiots watching the block seeing easy renos.

  • earth worm jim on 21/02/2021 - 21:17

    Alot of ppl dipped into their super, got 20k grants and bought properties. Prices will contract when they default on their loans eventually.

  • drprox on 21/02/2021 - 21:23

    Debt is free + fomo
    The government is happy as the wealth effect will get everyone spending
    No real tip but it's always a good time to buy a home. Property investments outside of this are another matter.

    • netjock on 22/02/2021 - 11:23

      Debt is free is going to get you into trouble.

  • Bargainz on 21/02/2021 - 23:33
    +3

    Reading through alot of these posts you can see the level of naivety of many. Immediately dismissing migration as the main reason because of COVID… overseas "investors" were still buying properties here via skype when this so called pandemic first started. Migration is the first driver with government interference a close second. Its been that way since the late 90's and never stopped. The end result is a bubble that is going to dwarf what we saw in Japan where that market was driven primarily with just government manipulation, the migration variable has made this sustainable far beyond what a traditional economic system would be able to sustain with by printing money, near zero rates and other manipulations like negative gearing.

    Read this to see some of the reality of what is going on "Agents also reported mainland Chinese buyers were making inquiries on properties priced at up to $18 million and getting family members based locally to view the homes on their behalf." https://www.realestate.com.au/news/coronavirus-to-drive-more…

    • Dr Techno on 22/02/2021 - 14:15
      +2

      yep neighbors house was sold to overseas chinese investor a few years ago. there wasn't even a local advertising campaign sold for top dollar. friends in china think anything with land @ $1 mill is cheap as you would be lucky to get a 3 bedroom appartment in a major city for that price. I can see how the government keeps the bubble alive and well with stimulus & other measures but I dont see an end to it. gov will always be there supporting it.

      • netjock on 22/02/2021 - 14:35
        +1

        Hundreds and millions of mug punters in China for Australian property.

        They are next in after the Hong Kongers, Singaporean and Malaysians buying off the plan apartments. When they realise they buy a piece of land that the locals can't afford and they get a 1% yield after forking out for council, water and maintenance.

  • Trying2SaveABuck on 22/02/2021 - 00:44
    +12

    “In the last 3 or 4 weeks in particular, houses that we have seen at say 10am inspection times have had offers on them the same night!!!”

    This is pretty much the Melbourne Market most of the time in my experience – you need to be quick and you need to have money

    All I can tell you the textbook views will give you a check list of tasks you need to do before you buy a house pest inspection, building inspection, check out the neighbour’s inspection, inspect the property multiple times, subject to this and that etc.

    Now in theory I agree with doing all that but I’ve purchased and sold property enough to tell you 9/10 times it simply isn’t possible. You will run yourself bankrupt just paying for the inspections to every house you go to auction too.

    It doesn’t help real estate agents are scumbags and the law lets them get away with murder. The system is s**t esp if you have never purchased a property to live in before (purchasing for investment is different). Agents are incredibly non-transparent you cannot believe anything they say the laws around pricing are terrible and unquoting happens all the time. Even when selling a property agents are terrible humans they are just trying to close a deal asap so in fairness agents are rubbish for both buyers and sellers… my only advice is DO NOT TRUST THEM.

    The other bit of ‘advice’ I’ll give is 99/100 times you will not get a ‘bargain’ (when purchasing a place to live) on the market with so much in favour of Vendors low interest rates, grants, lack of supply, investors and raising demand – you need to take your ozbargin mentally out of it and pay the money this is not something you can try discount.

    I know it is counter intuitive of all rational thought but unfortunately that is how the property market is. Your property over time will likely appreciate in value which will cushion this blow.

    • slothhead on 22/02/2021 - 10:31
      +4

      This is right on the money.

      The state of the market at the moment does not allow for the level of diligence that buyers ought to perform on a prospective purchase. You have to enter the market with some appetite for risk.

      There are no bargains at the moment - if you're a serious buyer you're going to have to determine what the property is worth and THEN consider an upper buffer if you are serious on securing it: it's ridiculous but it's the only way you'll have a chance in an escalating market. The alternative of course is to wait it out (who knows how that will play out) or move to a different state/country!

    • netjock on 22/02/2021 - 14:43

      You need to have the George Costanza view of life "always do the opposite"

      Other than COVID19 (authorities just don't want a lot of old people dying because they need them to spend and tax them. Dead don't consume or pay taxes) most free advice there is an angle.

      That CBA prediction of 30% drop is to get the government to bail out their back sides. Now this 21% increase is to get people taking out bigger loans.

      GameStop on one side is short seller making a big loss, asking retail investors to pile in but there is managers who went long who made a mint.

  • Trying2SaveABuck on 22/02/2021 - 00:53
    +5

    Oh i got to add this

    it doesnt help but both State/Federal government and the reserve bank do everything they can to make the property market as expensive as it possibly can be

    The media is contently making you feel like if you dont own 15 houses something is wrong with you and if you are renting you are a leper

    • netjock on 22/02/2021 - 17:58

      Having people pay more interest, stamp duty and land tax. I don't think there is many properties in Metro Melbourne that would be under threshold for land tax now.

      Happiness for business is when the consumer spends their pay check and then some.

      • Trying2SaveABuck on 23/02/2021 - 08:22

        Yea keep loading people up with more debt what could possibly go wrong? it isnt like you have to pay it back i mean YOLO right?

        • netjock on 23/02/2021 - 10:34

          Depends on how short (if you choose a short ending) or long (if debts get to you first) and miserable your YOLO wants to be.

          Yes you are right. YOLO emotional decisions if going to get a lot of people in trouble.

  • drfuzzy on 22/02/2021 - 01:05
    +4

    Most people are viewing this from the wrong perspective.
    It's not that housing is appreciating.
    It's that the value of fiat currency is rapidly depreciating.
    As a result most asset classes are rising against a worthless dollar - stocks, bonds, real estate, crypto. Everything.
    Inflation is hidden taxation.
    The wealthy hold assets.
    Savers are losers.

    • whooah1979 on 22/02/2021 - 03:10

      All fiat eventually goes to -99%. People know this but still cling to fiat because the government says fiat is backed by them.

    • netjock on 22/02/2021 - 14:49

      Fiat is depreciating in what way?

      If you look at cost of your take out food. Probably 20% is the cost of produce if you bought it at the market. The inflation is landlord wanting more rent and labour (people people need to pay inflating house prices)

      There is some shrinkflation where same price items have less weight.

      You might be talking about depreciation of currencies but no problem everyone is following each other to zero interest rates. Even if USD is depreciating it isn't as bad as 1:1 to the AUD. Currency depreciation is only bad when one country does it (China) where they can export goods cheaper

      For a services based economy (Australia does little manufacturing) you can export hair cuts or manicures.

      • drfuzzy on 24/02/2021 - 19:11

        I think you have swallowed the federal reserve's updates hook, line, and sinker.
        Reported inflation excludes rent, housing, and assets.
        The fact your Netflix subscription is affordable and commodities are affordable due to technological advances in productivity misses the point.

        • netjock on 24/02/2021 - 19:18

          I did not mention inflation.

          Depreciation / appreciation of currency is used in context vs other currencies.

          You need to know what you are talking about.

        • mr_asstight on 24/02/2021 - 19:40

          Yeah excludes most essential shit!

  • aurotaro on 22/02/2021 - 08:35
    +1

    People in the market trying to buy for their 4th kid so they don't miss out on life.

  • RocketSwitch on 22/02/2021 - 09:49
    +1

    I have more fomo in the stock market than houses.

  • Dr Techno on 22/02/2021 - 14:00
    +1

    I've noticed low housing stock on offer for the suburbs I was browsing and yeah theres a big play on FOMO at the moment, combine those two with emotions its not hard to see how the situation came into play. If you think it is bad now, it will probably only get worse in the future.

  • mr_asstight on 22/02/2021 - 14:15
    -1

    Can't wait for immigration to kick back in full swing in 2023. Investors will fomo so hard.

  • Saars on 22/02/2021 - 14:17

    We are probably competing for the same houses :)

    I've been seeing the same thing. I keep hearing people asking the same question over and over; "How much can we rent this out for"

    I've got a massive FOMO at the moment

  • porsche26c on 22/02/2021 - 14:30
    -5

    Stop blaming negative gearing. It is no different to buying and running a business. Basically you are running a small business. When i bought my business, i had a business loan and was able to claim the interest on tax. So whats the difference here? You buy something, you get a loan, you make money which you pay tax on. Plus on my business, i dont need to pay land tax like owning a piece of land. So if anything, people should either buy a business that runs itself like a maccas or shares than a property. Obviously, people do it for the capital gains.

    • netjock on 22/02/2021 - 14:53
      +1

      If you ran a cafe business you probably employee 2 people full time. If you have to drive Uber part time so you can tip money in (negatively gear) you won't be in business much longer.

      We make a big deal about giving out tax money to JobSeek but look at that as negative gearing that will some day pay off because these people will get jobs and pay taxes.

    • muzzamo on 22/02/2021 - 14:58
      +1

      The difference is that you can claim against your personal income at your full marginal tax rate rather than the income in the "business".

  • MoonlapseVertigo on 22/02/2021 - 14:52
    +2

    The Ponds, NSW. 19 Shipley St, 365m2 4B 2B 2C $1.35M. Has a pool but wow. FOMO + cheap credit = shopping time

    • EnALup on 22/02/2021 - 16:18
      +1

      Wow. that much for a small lot.

      • MoonlapseVertigo on 22/02/2021 - 16:36
        +1

        tiny house. tiny block. nicely furnished and modern. The Ponds is a ritzy suburb and amazing but this shows how peak the market is right now

        • Grunntt on 23/02/2021 - 08:19

          Have you been to that area?
          Tiny blocks with overpriced houses, that are just variations on a standard plan, built right on top of the neighbours with pretty much nothing to do in the immediate area doesn't fit my description of a 'ritzy' suburb.

          • ribze1 on 23/02/2021 - 16:55

            @Grunntt: And so far away from everything.

            • MoonlapseVertigo on 23/02/2021 - 19:06

              @ribze1: 44 hectares of walkways and parkland with only 2 sets of stairs. Playgrounds, parks, fields, new metro line, 2 minutes drive to RHTC. But sure, nothing to do.

              Drive around the ponds, it’s European cars and young professionals. $1.6M for a big house there now.

              Sure it’s not double bay, but for the suburbs out that part of Sydney, it’s flash and full of money.

              • Grunntt on 23/02/2021 - 22:07
                +2

                @MoonlapseVertigo: Are you quoting from their advertising brochure because those phrases sound very familiar?

                Your definition of ritzy is definitely not one I would agree with - Euro cars are everywhere in Sydney.

                $1.6m for a big (whatever your definition of big is) house just confirms my statement of 'overpriced houses'.

                Also not too sure how you can identify the young professionals whilst driving around the area.

                You seem to define it as ritzy by comparing it to what is available in nearby suburbs out in that part of Sydney. That makes it ritzy relative to whatever you think is not somewhere nearby - not very objective basically.

                Flash and full of money - overbuilt and full of debt more like it.

                • MoonlapseVertigo on 24/02/2021 - 15:03

                  @Grunntt: You sound like a frustrated renter. Hang in there, the crash of doom you have been waiting for is coming in 99 years. Don't fret precious, it will all be ok

                  • Grunntt on 24/02/2021 - 22:36

                    @MoonlapseVertigo: You couldn't be further from the truth if you tried.
                    Unfortunately you seem to be yet another one of those who cannot present a rational argument for his/her opinion and has to resort to petty insults and name calling.
                    As that is what you have shown yourself to be there is no point in taking this difference of opinions further - enjoy your unfounded views of the Sydney property market in which you are so obviously vastly experienced.

              • ribze1 on 23/02/2021 - 22:41

                @MoonlapseVertigo: Plenty of parkland, playgrounds and fields in Mt. Druitt too.

  • HKS on 22/02/2021 - 14:57
    +1

    tbh only idiots are fomoing into houses at the moment. ill be waiting for the crash when covid shit goes back to normal

    • DiscoJango on 22/02/2021 - 19:08
      +7

      lol "the crash" thats supposed to have happened every year, for the past 10 years?

      • Dr Techno on 23/02/2021 - 00:04
        +1

        got friend that has been waiting 20 years for the crash before he gettings into property.. opps.

    • mr_asstight on 23/02/2021 - 19:04
      +3

      Listen, if COVID can't kill the housing bubble what makes you think anything else will?

    • Trying2SaveABuck on 24/02/2021 - 07:35

      HKS Literally for the last 12 years i've read an article at least once ever 3-6 months of some 'expert' predicting that is going to housing crash by 40, 50, 60% + it has never happened - i think the biggest drop i've seen is 4-5% which later resulted in a sharp price increase shortly after…

      The government wont let it happen

      The reserve bank wont let it happen

      The banks wont let it happen

      The mega rich wont let it happen

      The reason being the people making the laws and policies have f**k loads of investment properties so they will continue to prop up there own financial interest. The system is corrupt and the rules are bent in favor of those who are already multimillionaires and billionaires. Is the system fair? no but there is nothing you can do about it and the simple reason for this is the only people who can change it are rich people themselves and they will never do that - if you ever get rich you would manipulate the system to benefit yourself and anyone who tells you they wouldnt is a 100% lying.

  • Bunnyburger on 22/02/2021 - 15:19
    +5

    Just guessing but I think if there is a crash it won't be a total housing market crash. It will be a crash for a segment and a correction for another. I'm not sure which one though because there are so many competing factors.

    I think the best bet is to see who is lobbying for what.

    • netjock on 22/02/2021 - 18:01
      +2

      The government will pay before there is a crash.

      I would like to see the complex deal where you buy a $2m property where the government basically pays you over 30 years half the price. Then you try to flip it for $3m. Then try to feel wealthy.

  • whooah1979 on 22/02/2021 - 17:11

    People that are waiting for a crash may want to grab a chair and sit down. It'll take a while.

    https://amp.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/sydney-nsw/sydne…

    Data from realestate.com.au showed a preliminary clearance rate of 90 per cent for weekend auctions, while agents reported multiple sales with more than 15 registered bidders.

    To put those numbers into perspective, Sydney auction clearance rates have historically been around 65 per cent and three to five registered bidders has usually been the norm at auctions in recent years.

    • netjock on 22/02/2021 - 18:02
      +2

      Only if we end up figuring out we have a population of 25m but we have 26m houses.

      Of course they will never let you know that. They just keep telling you it will go up 20% in two years driven by a handful of suburbs.

      Going to be like S&P500 where 5 companies makes up 25% of the index and people just think it is going up.

      • bobolo on 22/02/2021 - 21:22
        +3

        But the thing is, 20m people want to live in areas consisting of only 5m houses

        No amount of govt intervention will change that

    • Grunntt on 23/02/2021 - 08:42
      +1

      To put those numbers into real perspective you may like to do your own calculations too. This so-called clearance rate basically has no resemblance to the real numbers.

      Domain shows a Sydney clearance rate of 83% (scheduled 624/reported 565/sold 471)
      Realestate.com has NSW clearance rate of 92% (488 auction results available)

      But let's be the same as the highly trained, skilled and unbiased media and just blindly quote the vested interests claims.

  • StonedWizard on 22/02/2021 - 17:58

    The person may have been a tradie/DIYer who is happy to take on a project.

    I also think those who remained stable employed and worked from home, saved tonnes of cash. When you're not paying for public transport, lunch/coffee/after work drinks you really tend to save.

    It's sad that most of the big companies are on the Eastern side, as this pushes prices up. There's still affordable housing in the Central and Western side of Australia. If we were like America and actually had reasonable housing prices spread across the country it will be great for the younger generation.

    • netjock on 22/02/2021 - 18:07
      +1

      How much is public transport a year?

      Now you have a second hand car, plus Rego. What is the net saving?

      Not paying for lunch, coffee, after work drinks. Say you saving an extra 15k a year. That is like $200k - $300k mortgage.

      Something odd is going on but nobody can put a figure on it. Or nobody is telling everyone the "trick"

  • serpserpserp on 22/02/2021 - 18:56
    +5

    OP: you need to look at places that you are going to 90% going to put an offer on. I bought a house about 12 months before the peak of the last boom. It was crazy then too. But after I figured out the I needed to pay between 10-15% above the top end of the reserve, I stop wasting time trying to secure a bargain I was never going to get and got realistic with what I could buy. People thought I was crazy and buying at the peak of the market, but prices ran 10% higher after I bought. Now I'm 5+ years into my mortgage and I'm glad I came to my senses and didn't look for the "perfect" house at a bargain price. Just doesn't happen these days.

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